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Asia Pacific region

ResearchNewsAustralian Market & Social Research Society | Volume 28 | Number 2 | March 2011

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Research News March 2011 3

Research News March 2011

ASIA PACIFIC REGION

14Mobile leapfrogs other technologies in AsiaA lot of Asian markets have leapfrogged older technologies, such as analogue mobiles, to get straight into GSM and 3G. They’re also starting to leapfrog fixed line phones at home to get straight into mobile. Market research companies need to invest more in mobile phone research methods if they want to take advantage of growth in the Asia Pacific region. By Kerry Sunderland

16Meeting the MR needs of Vietnamese SMEsGrowth in the market research industry in Vietnam will come from small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and not just the big multinational corporations. This is because SMEs have been consistently the source of growth in Vietnam; on average, their profits grow about 20 per cent each year. But multi-tasking and non-traditional research approaches are required when working in Vietnam. By Tran Ngoc Dun and Tuong Tuan Thong

18Odd ducksDoing market research in China keeps even the most experienced researchers on their toes. In a diverse market that is constantly changing it takes guts and commitment to keep up with the demands of clients. By Katarina Olausson

22In praise of the humble potatoThough many researchers have indeed capitalised beautifully on the power of the diary, one can still say it’s under-exploited, and seems to me a bit like the potato of research; a versatile and humble option which, given its merits, never quite seems to get the appreciation it deserves. By Namita Mediratta

CONTENT

FEATURESREGULAR SECTIONS

President’s point of view ..............................4

News .........................................................……6

ProfileDavid Bottomley .............................................8

Company news & announcementsNews, events and updates ..........................10

Write to reply .........................................……12

StatisticsSignificance testing versus Bayesian statistics .......................................20

The word’s outText analysis .................................................21

Cover to coverNudge – Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness by Richard H Thaler and Cass R Sunstien ……24

Career movesNew appointments and promotions for AMSRS members ...................................25

HR, leadership & managementDemand for market research professionals in 2011 ...................................28

An ethical question ...............................……28

Society news ..........................................……29

Professional development program calendar and dates for the diary ...............30

Research News is the official magazine of the AMSRS. It is published monthly and distributed to members and subscribers.

Publisher The Australian Market & Social Research Society LtdLevel 1, 3 Queen Street, Glebe NSW 2037. ACN 002 882 635. Tel: 02 9566 3100 or 1300 364 832 Fax: 02 9571 5944

Executive editor Elissa Molloy [email protected]

Managing editor Kerry Sunderland [email protected]

Editorial subcommittee Kylie Brosnan, Paul di Marzio, Corey Fisher, Milica Loncar, Scott MacLean, Norma Nolan, Caroline Smith and Paul Vittles

Advertising enquiries Evolve Media............................................ Tel: 02 6680 4075

Design and layout Hyve Creative ....................................... [email protected]

Division contactsNSW Mike Beder, QPMR Tel: 02 9371 0311 .................................. [email protected]

QLD Michael Gardiner, QPMR Tel: 07 3376 5176 ....................... [email protected]

SA Arry Tanusondjaja , QPMR Tel: 08 8302 0074 ... [email protected]

VIC Charmian Huggett, QPMR Tel: 03 9686 5444 ....................... [email protected]

WA Derryn Belford, QPMR Tel: 08 9262 1896 .... [email protected]

ACT Jacqui Cristiano Tel: 02 6216 2881 .................. [email protected] expressly stated, the opinions published in Research News are not necessarily those of the AMSRS. The AMSRS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the opinions or information contained in Research News. Readers should rely upon their own enquiries in making decisions.

For more information visit www.amsrs.com.au

AMSRS National Conference 2011 8 - 9 September 2011Sydney Hilton

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Curiouser & Curiouser

things our profes-sion both need and understand so please join in and contribute if you haven’t already done so - it may just be the tonic that will quench your thirst.

Peter Harris, national president

One of the real truths in our profession is that we researchers are a thirsty lot!

I am referring to the seemingly never-ending thirst for new knowledge. De-spite all the highs and lows of business these days, researchers have constantly attended to and supported their own professional develop-ment, which demonstrates that we see this as important.

We currently have two good opportunities to continue feeding this thirst this month.

One is to get more familiar about what is going on in the Asia Pacific region when ESOMAR hosts APAC 2011 in Melbourne. The fact ESOMAR has chosen Australia to host the conference demonstrates how we are perceived on the world research stage. The program is packed with stories of innovation and good practice centred around the theme of simplicity.

It was John Maeda, the American design guru, who said: ‘Simplicity is about subtract-

ing the obvious and adding the meaningful’.Which is the perfect way to describe what

we do, as we are often asked.The second way to feed your thirst is to do

what 500 of us have already done and join the ‘locked’ AMSRS group on LinkedIn at http://linkd.in/9MmfiD

There are a wide range of thoughtful top-ics being debated, everything from technical chats about significance testing (http://linkd.in/i0RmvG) to a very key discussion about the benefits of being a member of AMSRS. Is it relevant to a new emerging research agency? Do clients care? See http://linkd.in/gaNAuX for more.

With 500 members on LinkedIn, and grow-ing every day, our thirst for knowledge and learning is again on show. When completing their profile most people say they join LinkedIn either to keep abreast of current issues and to learn (connection) or to find a new job (op-portunity). Connection and opportunity are two

Thirsty?

PRESIDENT’S POINT OF VIEW

Twitter: @peteraharris

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NEWS

The big domestic market of India has projected growth of 8.5 per cent while many regions in China have double-digit growth targets.

Then there are the emerging markets (like Vietnam and Indonesia) where the population numbers are so big (even if per capita adoption rates are much lower and the methods are not as sophisticated) that they’re still incredibly interest-ing for marketers, particularly those in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector.

Chris Farquhar, managing director of Cimigo, says that while Singapore and Hong Kong were dramatically hit, those in Vietnam might well have asked, ‘What recession?’

However, while the regional buying centres of Singapore and Hong Kong were affected most severely by the GFC (also being key global financial centres), researchers in the region report that these two markets have also been the fastest to rebound.

Those operating in the business-to-business (B2B) and services sector, such as ORC Inter-

national (formerly NWC Opinion Research), are forecasting more moderate growth in the rapid growth emerging economies compared to those doing FMCG research.

‘Many US and European companies cut B2B and services research budgets in far flung markets likes Asia when the GFC hit,’ says ORC International regional managing director Greg Wayman. ‘But the US seems to be emerging from the GFC and European markets appear to have gone through the worst, so there will be renewed interest in Asia.’

APAC 2011 comes to Melbourne

Australian researchers will get a glimpse of the collective body of ‘local knowledge’ among those conducting research across

the Asia Pacific region when ESOMAR’s Asia Pa-cific 2011 conference takes place on 19 to 22 March at the Crown Promenade Hotel in Melbourne.

The previously buoyant Asia Pacific region enjoyed a little breathing space before the global financial crisis (GFC) hit (and then only in some countries were the ripples felt) and by all accounts the region has rebounded faster than Western markets.

Nevertheless, growth in the market research industry in the coming year will vary considerably across the Asia Pacific region. In the regional buying centres (Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) there is a close correlation between gross domes-tic product (GDP) and research spend; Singapore is expecting 12 per cent growth in GDP this year; Hong Kong predicts nine per cent, while the Bank of Japan forecast only 3.3 per cent growth. The forecast for South Korea is around four per cent.

James Fergusson Chris Farquhar

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NEWS

The organisers of APAC 2011 note that the Asia Pacific region is far more culturally and socially diverse than any other region in the world and despite the challenges posed from meeting such varying needs, it is a region that has consistently demonstrated positive growth and development.

James Fergusson, TNS Global Technology Sector managing director, who will be presenting a paper at the conference titled ‘Bridging the digital divide in qualitative research in emerging markets’ (see story on page 14), says it’s essential for re-searchers to understand the importance of looking beyond the big cities in markets like China.

‘The further you get away from the tier one cities, the whole business model changes and local knowledge is absolutely critical in being able to deliver valid and actionable insights. When we start thinking about the bottom of the pyra-mid, we see a whole different set of values and priorities in terms of what people purchase and therefore a whole different need for a purchasing model. Those doing very well in these markets include some of the major FMCG companies. For example, in India, there’s more shampoo sold by sachet than by bottles. We also need to understand the different distribution channels. It

creates a whole range of new challenges for the market research industry.

‘As marketers, you can’t just transplant your personal experiences into rapid growth markets. You have to go into these markets with a very open mind. Secondly, these markets are also huge lo-gistically and the infrastructure required to meet clients’ needs is a real challenge for the industry. Thirdly, in rapidly growing emerging markets there are no hygiene factors. The things we have taken for granted since 1975 in the research industry in Australia – i.e. I can find a valid, representative sample and can have confidence in my data – aren’t necessarily the case.’

One of the goals of APAC 2011 is to give re-searchers the opportunity to explore how they can offer encompassing insights in a region where the diversity, size and pace of change make for a highly intricate mosaic.

‘There are all sorts of cultural, economic and societal factors that need to be taken into account. We’re having to mix methodologies a lot more today than five years ago,’ says Farquhar, whose company operates in Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Macau. ‘Previously, clients would insist on one methodology for all markets.

I think they are beginning to understand there are different ways of speaking to people without hav-ing to compromise the quality of research results in any way. They’re getting more comfortable with online research communities, for example. The sample sizes are dropping right down, but it’s permission based. Times have changed.’

Australian researchers speaking at the con-ference include Peter Harris (Vision Critical and AMSRS president), Bob Sharma and Frederic Anne (Telstra), Roxan Toll (GMI), Stephen Paton (AGL Energy), Roberto Capuccio and Peter Kenny (Colmar Brunton) and Evette Cordy (Raspberry Innovation Research + Strategy). The two-day conference is preceded by a series of workshops. For more info visit http://www.esomar.org/index.php/asia-pacific-2011-programme.html

Errata: In the February 2011 edition article titled ‘State of the industry’ it was incorrectly stated that Synovate had moved CATI operations to New Zealand. This is not the case; Synovate has an Australian-based team of telephone interviewers and a face-to-face interviewing team that covers all major capital cities in Australia. Synovate’s CATI operations have always been based in Australia and there are no plans for this to change.

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8 Research News March 2011

PROFILE

ence. He would put many younger researchers to shame, climbing the stairs (or risking the ride in a dubious lift) to the top of multi-storey apartment buildings along with the interviewers, as he has always insisted that they commence their door knocking for pre-planned calls on the top level of the building.

‘Without that instruction,’ Bottomley says, ‘Interviewers might get too many ground and lower level flats.’

He writes with humility in his 2009 report, ‘Usually, on these trips, I walk up and down with the interviewers but lazy from the previous day’s travel, I let the interviewers do all the climbing until they obtained an interview. Then they rang me, and I went up to attend the interview.’

He notes in his reports other sampling chal-lenges, such as ‘what is a household when four dwellings are adjacent and share a courtyard?’ In Myanmar, sampling challenges have been compounded by the fact that precise population figures remain uncertain. The most recent gov-ernment census was conducted back in 1983 and the government places the growth rate at 2.02 per cent to give a current estimate of 57.5 million, but researchers and business people have their own estimates.

On the other hand, Bottomley notes where data are available for ‘committee districts’ in Chinese cities, it provides the penultimate stratum for his household sampling procedure.

‘A functional definition of a village in China is that it contains friendly people, willing to help find those who live in the homes our local supervisors have pre-selected, that interviews seldom start with less than eight people present, perhaps

double that number, and that “grandpa” [AKA Bot-tomley] gets a baby placed in his arms. The latter is hazardous. Diapers/nappies are not known in such places. Babies wear pants split on the backside. I like babies but I don’t trust their inner controls. So far, over the years, no accidents – but I limit my exposure to about five minutes!’

He notes that during one interview in 2009, student characters kept popping in and out of the four doors off the central lounge area ‘like an old fashioned three-act comedy’.

In stark contrast to nursing infants and feigning disinterest in curious neighbours, over the years Bottomley’s associates have had to diplomatically negotiate their way through Chinese censorship controls to get authorisation for his studies. How-ever, it is 10 years since he had any interviewers arrested for asking suspicious questions about such things as employment.

Bottomley and his team have sometimes succeeded in getting Chinese communities to participate in their surveys by saying, ‘we’re not government, we’re friends!’

In between trips to China and Myanmar over the past couple of years, Bottomley (who is now 86) has resumed the post-graduate studies he first undertook back in 1948 after which he was ‘captured into market research for 60-odd years’. He completed a second Masters at Melbourne Uni-versity in 2009. He is uncertain if he might complete his PhD in the history of science education at Curtin University’s Science, Mathematics and Education Centre before he turns 90.

‘I’m enraptured with being an historical detec-tive. History is full of surmises and contradictions to unravel. Life’s fun!’

Transition and transformation AMSRS founding member and Fellow David Bottomley has conducted research in urban and rural China for more than 20 years.

I am fortunate that my work takes me to interesting places,’ writes AMSRS Fel-low David Bottomley in one of his annual

Christmas letters to family and friends. Over the years, these Christmas letters have drawn heavily on the illustrated reports he prepares for clients after fieldwork excursions in China and Myanmar.

Bottomley, who is founder of the Hong Kong company Asia Marketing Research Directions (AMRD), was based in Hong Kong from 1986 to 2008. One of his first research projects involved a taste test in a restaurant with snakes on the menu. The friends of the interviewers he employed were caught at the back door selling his imported beer taste samples.

Over the past 25 years, Bottomley has seen China race through its industrial revolution. More recently, he has made bi-annual trips to China to oversee the China in Transition to a Market Economy study, which commenced in March 2000 and wound up in the middle of last year having conducted about 50,000 face-to-face interviews in every province of China, other than Tibet.

During his visits to China he has accompanied interviewers into many homes. These trips were often undertaken to pre-test questionnaires or obtain a snapshot impression of the fieldwork.

‘Fieldwork supervision and checking needs to be far more intensive and pre-planning in the office is far more critical in Asia than in countries where market research is well-established,’ he wrote in the October 2001 edition of Research News.

Bottomley’s illustrated reports on these field-work trips – in many ways, an exegesis on the main research report - document gradual improve-ments in the standard of living in regional and rural China. They’re colourful reports that paint a vivid picture of what it’s like living in China and are scattered with amusing anecdotes about the chal-lenges for researchers – as Bottomley notes, ‘there are always little adventures in fieldwork’.

Over a series of reports, his observations about the improved standard of living have included bet-ter and brighter light fittings, pictures on the walls, flat renovations and apartment size – along with the speed and comfort of China’s rail system. One thing that hasn’t improved, much to Bottomley’s chagrin, is the pollution. Invariably his reports end with a note of relief that he’s returned to the clean air and blue skies of Hong Kong.

Bottomley made a point of accompanying interviewers during the entire fieldwork experi-

‘

David Bottomley tries his hand at hawking in Taunggyi market, Myanmar

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COMPANY NEWS

Cint acquires Thumbspeak Cint, a technology and solution provider to the re-search industry, has acquired Thumbspeak, a do-it yourself (DIY) mobile application platform, for an undisclosed amount. Thumbspeak becomes a Cint Group company and will be integrated into the Cint Panel Exchange platform as a plug-in for existing and new panel owners as well as sold as a standalone licensed product under its existing brand name. Initially available in North America, Thumbspeak will be rolled out and made avail-able in a host of new international markets in the coming weeks and months. Thumbspeak’s DIY mobile relationship marketing platform and application enable businesses and research-ers to connect with audiences in real-time via their smart phones. Thumbspeak released its first iPhone app in mid-2010 while the Android and Blackberry apps are about to be released. The iPhone application has been ranked as the number one free business application on iTunes several times during the last few months.

Ruby Cha Cha launches Living InsightsRuby Cha Cha has launched a new service called Living Insights, which is a combination of real-world exploration and video ethnog-raphy that’s designed to bring clients and stakeholders closer to their target audiences and segments. Tools such as trace evidence insights DVDs, ethnographic portraiture, documentary films and videos, and statistical storytelling through animations will be used. Nick Agafonoff, who joined Ruby after suc-cessfully establishing his own ethnography house called Interloper, which he ran for five years, will head up the new department. Agafonoff is a documentary filmmaker and consumer sociologist.

Get in touch with people!Toluna’s unique online panel community of 4 million respondents, enables research and marketing professionals to target niche segments and hard to reach audiences. Additionally, using our community management solution, PanelPortalTM, we can help you build and manage your own online community, enabling you to conduct surveys and qualitative discussions with your customers. For more information visit us at ESOMAR APAC conference (Melbourne) 20-22nd March and AMSRS WA State conference (Perth) 25th March 2011.

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COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS

Replenish Qualitative Recruitment Services relocates.Replenish has relocated its Sydney and Brisbane offices to accommodate the company’s growing team during the end of 2010. Replenish now has 3 Project Managers and a team of 18 recruiters on the ground in both Sydney and Brisbane. All are now working from the recently completed, web based centralised database program which has over 80,000 respondents registered for paid consumer research studies across NSW and QLD.

Tel: 02 9460 4500 www.replenishqr.com.au

Research Now increases presence in AsiaResearch Now has announced the relocation of key personnel to further support future growth of the company in Asia.

‘As a direct result of the growing demand for online market research in the Asian markets, Research Now is increasing its presence in Sin-gapore and Shanghai, relocating key personnel to lead its emerging team,’ commented Martin Filz, managing director, Asia-Pacific.

Previously responsible for sales and sales support activities in New Zealand, Research Now’s Martin Tomlinson has been promoted to client development director for Research Now Asia while Ying Li has joined as client develop-ment manager (see ‘Career moves’ for more).

Flood squadJigsaw researchers hosted a BBQ last month to raise money for the victims of the devastating floods in Queensland. The ‘flood squad’ team made calls to local butchers, bakeries and grocers asking them to generously donate any supplies they could for the cause. There was a fantastic turn out and everyone enjoyed a delicious sausage sandwich in the sunshine. There were raffles and one Jigsawian even shaved his hair off to raise some more money for the worthy cause. With the support of Sam The Butcher, Bakers Delight (Northbridge, Mascot, Rose Bay), Castlecrag Fruiters, Crown Catering, Tip Top and Castlecrag Meats, Jigsaw raised $1600. It was donated to Westpac, which matched one dollar for every dollar collected until 14 February.Editor’s note: A number of other companies, including Colmar Brunton and TNS, also held fundraisers for those affected by the floods.

Parents and Frequent FlyersCint welcomes Australian Frequent Flyer to the Cint Panel Exchange (CPX) providing clients with access to 10,000 affluent travellers. We also welcome Pregnancy, Babies & Children Expo, adding 20,000 parents with young children and babies. These specialist panels are fully profiled, de-duped and offered exclusively through Cint. The additions to our online capabilities complement Cint’s recent acquisition of Thumbspeak (see news item in this issue), the leading do-it-yourself (DIY) Mobile Relationship Marketing platform enabling researchers to connect with respondents via smartphones at the “moment of truth”.

Tel: 02 8219 9937 www.cint.com

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WRITE TO REPLY

Benefits of working for a big organisationThere is often debate in research circles about the virtues of working for one agency versus another. One of the most common discussions tends to be the large versus small agency debate. More often that not, I find the tone of these debates is that working for a large agency is bad; working for a small agency is good. I believe this is partially because the smaller organisations in our industry tend to be more vocal, but also because the bigger agencies tend not to be drawn into the debate to defend their case.

Working for a bigger agency, I too would typically turn a blind eye to such commen-tary, but recently there has been some criti-cism of larger organisations, including TNS, which I’ve felt to be so deeply misguided and incorrect, I feel compelled to speak out.

The aim of this article is not to fuel the ‘who’s good, who’s bad’ debate. Ultimately different people are suited to different organisations at different stages of their ca-reers. And some people are more naturally suited to larger agencies, some to smaller agencies.

But what I did want to do was put forward my personal view of what working in a big organisation can offer. My opinion is solely based upon my own experiences: I started my research career in a big agency (500+ employees), before joining a small agency (<10), followed by a mid sized agency (40). That agency then got merged into a larger agency, TNS Australia, where I now work.

Here are some of the benefits I’ve wit-nessed – benefits that have a positive impact on both employees and clients alike.1. Diversity of people and skill sets. One

aspect I have always particularly enjoyed about working in a big agency is having colleagues with a massively diverse range of backgrounds and expertise. Whether it be social media monitoring, evaluation work, segmentation, or volumetric mod-elling, the scale of bigger organisations means you have the opportunity to work with and learn from experts in a broad range of fields. Likewise, if there is a par-ticular niche area you want to specialise in as your career develops, the scale of larger agencies can enable this.

2. Career opportunities. In 10 years with essentially the same agency, I’ve had six

different roles. Each has been a progres-sion on the previous role, and provided a fresh challenge on each occasion. So rather than a CV littered with a variety of organisations, I’ve been able to take on completely new roles without mov-ing company. My story within TNS is not unique.

3. Training and development. The breadth and depth of training available within the larger agencies is often remark-able. Larger agencies are sometimes perceived to be unsupportive of industry training schemes. This isn’t the case; it is simply that internal training programs cover everything offered by the industry courses, plus more (for example, TNS currently offers almost 100 differ-ent classroom training courses, many broadening our business skills beyond the traditional ‘tools of the trade’). This is beneficial for everyone in the busi-ness, not just those starting out in their careers, meaning your knowledge and way of working is constantly being chal-lenged and refreshed.

4. Consistency of culture. My experience of working for a small agency was positive in many ways, but a definite downside was that bad behaviour was not policed. This is ultimately why I left that agency. What I have found is that in larger agen-cies, the culture and behaviour is more consistent, simply because there are policies, procedures in place, and the owner(or CEO) is not bigger than the organisation. Of course there are smaller agencies with fantastic cultures, but I believe the risk of a bad culture is lower in larger organisations.

5. Innovation. All successful agencies in-novate – it’s the lifeblood of any agency big or small. But greater scale enables greater investment. In our business, some innovation comes from local teams, other innovation comes from our global or regional offices. What it means for employees is an opportunity to be constantly learning new approaches and new thinking. Whether it be new re-search philosophies or techniques, new datastreams or ways of analysing data, or simply an innovative way of displaying results, I find I’m often challenged just to keep up.And of course there are other benefits

which are more commonly discussed, such as the opportunity to work with the very best clients, to be involved in major international projects, the chance of international trans-

fers or travel and so on. But as I say, these are simply my experi-

ences. And just as no two people have the same experiences, no two agencies are the same. My advice to anyone looking at work-ing in agency land, or changing agencies, is don’t just judge an agency on size. Judge it on your fit with that organisation and how working there will impact on your career – and your life.Jonathan Sinton, commercial director, TNS

A view on ‘Dancing with Strangers’ On reading the February 2011 edition article, ‘Dancing with Strangers’, the reader may be left with the impression that, when manage-ment sells up, acquired staff are doomed to become the helpless victims whose utopian world is upset by the forces of evil, repre-sented by the faceless conglomerate. I’d like to offer, if not an alternative view, some ideas and examples on how the acquired can survive and thrive in the face of such events. Let’s be realistic, mergers and acquisitions have been a fact of life for decades and only the naive would think it would never happen to them. The onus is not just on the acquirer to accommodate the needs of the acquired, if the acquired are as ‘good as they think they are’, it’s as much up to them to prove it and in doing so more easily keep their ‘independence.’

The buyers are always going use their own internal criteria and values to judge the acquired. The acquired have to understand that and be prepared to explain or position themselves on those criteria and, in addi-tion, promote what else their team brings that adds a dimension to the new owner’s business.

Back in 1994 when Nielsen’s then owners, Dun & Bradstreet, bought the Asia Pacific based Survey Research Group, they essen-tially bought it for their retail audit and media measurement services in 12 markets from Korea, through China, and SE Asia. However as part of the deal, D&B had to pick up SRG’s significant custom research (CR) business. Initially, this was not met with much interest, custom research does not generally have the margins of the big syndicated services nor does it have the reassuring long-term contracts, robust to economic fluctuations, which go with those services.

WRITE TO REPLY

Talk (i.e. gossip) around the divestiture of the CR assets was rife and staff morale in the ad hoc side needed to be addressed. Our strategy was to proactively position CR in terms that a publicly traded acquirer would understand. We deliberately avoided pleading that we were different, special, and that they had to accommodate our unique needs. We pointed out that, yes, the margins aren’t as high as in continuous but due to the lower need for capital investment, custom research had around 2.5 times the ROI. Also, despite having significant market dominance in media and retail at the time, D&B and Nielsen could not expect that forever, so a CR unit was a useful weapon to enhance and protect the business as the competi-tion grew. Thirdly, by having a substantial revenue stream that required little extra back office maintenance, overheads could be spread over a larger base. And finally, even when you lose a major contract in CR, you can get out in the market the next day and look for a replacement; you don’t have to wait two years or more to get another bite at the contract.

So, without trying to sound heartless, wher-ever you work, you have to assume some day the owners are going to sell up and that will mean a change. My advice is to be open-minded, detach yourself from the emotions, and try to evaluate what benefits the acquirer has got as a result of buying you and your team. Then, express and exploit those benefits. If after that, you’re still not happy, then fair enough, maybe it’s time to move on. However, in many cases, you will be able to carry on and thrive because, often for the first time, you’ve actually had to think about the value you’re creating which is a big part of your professional skill as a researcher.David McCallum, managing partner, Gordon & McCallum

GFC a boon for independentsThe growth of independent research agencies (Research News February 2011) triggered by the global financial crisis (GFC) was little more than a two year accelerated period of the for-

mation of owner/operator consultancies which has been going on for more than 15 years.

The fallout after consolidation or acquisi-tion is a standard response in service indus-tries. Scale, the imposition of internal systems and infrastructure divert the attention of the owners and with that begins a distancing from the clients.

Over the last 15 years there has been a steady stream of researchers who seized an opportunity and took the risk of running their own businesses. The service promise of the SME agency is the personal knowledge of and intensity of engagement with the client business. The trick is not to be diverted by the growth at all costs mantra. My observation of the independent agencies that have formed over this period is they continue to generate busi-ness opportunities and deliver quality work.

In my own case, business has been busy and grown steadily since setting up as an independent five years ago. The GFC proved a boon period for me and other independents / sole practitioners. Linda McAvenna, principal, Think Strategy Pty Ltd


Bob Chua, CEO of Malaysian-based Pulse Group PLC, says that despite the economic situation globally, the research industry in Asia has enjoyed ‘paradoxical growth’. He

speculates that this was because clients in Asia had, until the global financial crisis (GFC) hit, favoured ‘legacy methodologies’ like face-to-face and telephone.

‘We started to see a huge shift or tipping point, probably in mid-2008 when the economic situation worsened globally. It pushed many clients over the edge to finally try online because of its cost and time effectiveness, coupled with the fact that internet penetration in these markets has grown so rapidly. Malaysia, for example, has grown from 20 per cent to 61 per cent in the past two years. We have so many initiatives from both government and the private sector in this region that really drive internet and broadband expansion, so we’re seeing a huge shift to the adoption of internet, both on mobile platforms as well as at home. Clients in this region are really looking for the next new thing and how it will give them the edge.’

Chua believes mobile platforms, location-centric tools and ‘near-field communications’ (NFC) technology represent the next big frontier for research as mobile broadband access gets cheaper and mobile devices offer users richer experiences. He believes the growth in adoption of mobile technology will allow researchers to do more powerful surveys.

‘For example, the adoption of mobile phones in India is phenom-enal – there are 20 million new mobile subscribers every month. The sheer volume of adoption is amazing and the introduction of Android and other new platforms will be a real game changer. Malaysia has 105 per cent mobile penetration – people have more than one mobile phone. Indonesia is the largest Blackberry market in the world – you see taxi drivers there on Blackberry Messenger.

‘A lot of Asian markets have leapfrogged older technologies, such as analogue mobiles, to get straight into GSM and 3G. We’re starting to leapfrog fixed line phones at home to get straight into mobile.

There are a lot of interesting trends here that would probably not be the norm anywhere else but I think Asian consumers are so hungry for innovation that the adoption rates are going to be huge.’

TNS Global Technology Sector managing director James Fer-gusson concurs. Fergusson told Research News back in 2006 that clients and agencies in Asia appeared less resistant to embracing technology than their Australian counterparts. He believes this observation is still true.

‘It has the potential to blow market research wide open. Despite mobile outnumbering online 3:1 and mobile being the irrefutable future of digital, it has yet to become a mainstay data collection methodology. As an industry, we haven’t taken advantage of the mobile explosion in Asia.’

However he says the big challenge, particularly in countries like China and India, is reaching consumers in regional and rural areas. Fergusson will be speaking on this topic at ESOMAR’s 2011 Asia Pacific in Melbourne later this month when he delivers a paper co-written with Navin Williams titled ‘Bridging the digital divide in qualitative research in emerging markets’.

‘The mass adoption of the mobile phone across both developed and rapid growth markets has had a far greater impact upon the way consumers live their lives than the internet – because it has reached far in excess of a billion more people. Despite this the market research industry has been somewhat lax in driving the utilisation of mobile as a valid and representative data collection tool.

‘Much of the focus of market research innovation still sits with online panels – even in rapid growth markets such as South East Asia, India and Sub-Saharan Africa the industry focus is on how to drive adoption of online research using “traditional” online panels.’

This is despite the fact that in India only seven to eight per cent of the population access the internet via a computer while, in China – the world’s largest Internet market - some 600+ million consumers are still without internet access.

FEATURE

Market research companies need to invest more in mobile phone research methods if they want to take advantage of growth in the Asia Pacific region, writes Kerry Sunderland.

other technologies in Asia

Mobile leapfrogs


Fergusson and Williams say most rural and remote regions in the developing world still lack basic internet infrastructure and access. Increasingly mobile networks are penetrating deep into these formerly inaccessible regions including in difficult and complex countries. With dropping data rates, mobile internet has begun to rapidly penetrate all geographies. In Rural China, one in four internet users are introduced to the web for the first time via their mobile phone.

At APAC, Fergusson and Williams will argue that these factors alone provide compelling evidence that the Asia market research industries must focus a greater investment emphasis on fast track-ing the use of mobile phones to be a viable and commonly accepted data collection medium.

‘In a global context this is far more important to our industry than the online revolution was in the early 2000s,’ they say.

According to ESOMAR’s latest Global Market Research Report, Japan is the biggest research market by turnover in the Asia Pacific region – yet to be trumped by China, where the industry has only operated for about 23 years – and the Japanese research industry is also being radically transformed by technology.

Dominic Carter, who founded Carter Associates KK in 2004 a few years after emigrating from Australia to Japan to work for Millward Brown, says his business was not that badly affected by the GFC be-cause he had ongoing contracts focused on the domestic market.

But he says that despite his company’s apparent immunity from the GFC, many market research companies are doing it tough. Carter says there has been considerable consolidation among foreign suppliers in Japan and now most of the major foreign players are owned by the WPP Group and are operating (or soon will be) under one brand, Japan Kantar Research.

‘It has proven difficult for the multinational research agencies to develop their branded product solutions in the Japanese market on a scale that justifies their independent existence.

‘The rest of the industry in Japan is under pretty severe pressure, especially when it competes with online panels. A lot of the work in the past few years has gone to the relatively new companies Yahoo Value Insights and Macromill, which have now merged,’ he explains. ‘The industry, which has never been much of a value-added insights-driven industry, has really been changed by the move towards online panels. Technology is driving everything towards being quicker, faster and cheaper. Clients are cutting budgets to the bone.’

Online shopping company Rakuten has even moved into the consumer research space. It operates a research panel and has launched a do-it-yourself survey solution.

Carter says while there are some Western-style research users in Japan who demand quality insight generation from their agen-cies, they are the exception rather than the rule. Japanese clients are less likely to make decisions based on research than their Western counterparts.

‘Domestic companies tend not to do as much MR as we know it,’ he explains. ‘As a percentage of GDP, spend on MR is much lower than it is in other markets. Japanese clients have never really de-

manded much by way of insights from their suppliers, so this very utilitarian, quick, cheap solution [offered by online panels] really serves the market well.’

Carter believes the days of research ‘as we know it’ are numbered (and not just in Japan) and that researchers, in the quantitative area at least, need to get much more au fait with technology and better un-derstand what advances in mobile internet mean for market research. This is one of the reasons he has recently launched a new Japanese joint venture with Australian market research technology company Potentiate (formed recently by the consolidation of software firm Info-tools Australia, panel management and survey deployment specialist Plenari and online sample firm Sampleworx under one brand).

‘The way we do research is going to change. Japanese don’t have any preconceived notions that you shouldn’t exploit technology. There are also newer players who don’t necessarily make the distinction between other branches of marketing and research. Potentiate is very, very appropriate to the times when everything becomes much more technology driven. We have developed and are developing products that are very empowering for the client, allowing them to achieve a lot more in the areas of research data collection, analysis and communication, a lot more quickly.’

‘CATI versus online panels shouldn’t even be a conversation,’ ar-gues Fergusson. ‘We’re caught up in a debate that’s 10 years old.’

Reassuringly, he believes there are real opportunities for Aus-tralian researchers to lead the mobile research revolution. These will no doubt be explored further at APAC 2011.

Kerry Sunderland, managing editor, Research News

The mobile only revolution Percentage of mobile internet browsers who ‘never or infrequently use the desktop internet’ *

Country % of mobile only

India, China, Indonesia, Thailand 43%

South Africa, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya 56%

US, UK 22%

Russia 19%

US 22%

UK 25%

China 30%

Thailand 32%

Indonesia 44%

Nigeria 50%

Kenya 54%

Ghana 55%

South Africa 57%

India 59%

Egypt 70%

Data gathered from July to November 2010 - N= 15,204 (Source: On Device Research) * ‘Infrequent’ mobile internet browsers use it once a month or less

Dominic Carter Bob Chua James Fergusson


FEATURE

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), employing fewer than 300 employees, account for a significant proportion of national wealth and growth in less developed coun-

tries. In Vietnam, a typical developing and emerging country, the number of SMEs is reaching 400,000. They represent 99 per cent of the number of businesses of the country; employ 77 per cent of the workforce and account for 80 per cent of the retail market.

Growth in the market research industry in Vietnam will come from SMEs and not just the big multinational corporations. This is because SMEs have been consistently the source of growth in Viet-nam; on average, their profits grow about 20 per cent each year.

SMEs in Vietnam receive great attention from the Vietnamese government as well as non-government organisations (NGOs) in initiatives designed to improve their competitiveness. Organisations such as the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have implemented a variety of programs supporting SMEs to help them improve working skills for their employees and business manage-ment skills for leaders.

In particular, recent initiatives by the Ministry of Trade and Industry and VCCI have helped Vietnamese SMEs conduct profes-sional market research by financing part of the research costs. This research, which has focused on finding ways for Vietnamese brands to enter rural markets, has generated strong awareness among SMEs about the benefits of using market research. Market research agencies in Vietnam have been encouraged to participate into these initiatives to support SMEs and also to promote the agen-cies’ names to this sector.

Until 2007, large businesses (mostly multinational) remained the biggest spenders on research in the country. However, after joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2007, many SMEs in Vietnam have grown to be significant players in their industries. Typical cases are Nutifood Nutrition & Dairy, THP Beverage and Masanfood. These companies (established approximately nine to 10 years ago) have grown from small enterprises to become sub-stantial players, with research budgets that have grown significantly and are now comparable with multinationals in the same category. Before 2007, the list of top 10 advertising spenders included typical names such as Unilever, P&G, Coca Cola and Pepsi. By 2010, THP and Masan were ranked number one and number three respectively in ad expenditure.

This illustrates how market research agencies that effectively promote and sell their services to SMEs could potentially grow alongside these companies.

Multi-tasking and non-traditional research approaches are required when working in Vietnam, write Tran Ngoc Dun and Tuong Tuan Thong.

Meeting the MR needs of Vietnamese SMEs



FEATURE

Current market research awareness and usage However, in a recent survey of 200 local fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) SMEs in Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi, conducted by FTA Marketing Research, less than 30 per cent had a separate marketing department. None had a functional market research department.

Therefore, it is not surprising that only half of these SMEs agree that market research is the tool for understanding target consum-ers. Only about 45 per cent agree that market research should be the foundation for business strategy. Only 30 per cent agree that market research should be used to improve current product offers or develop new products.

Fifty one per cent had never used services from a market research agency. Instead, they used mostly information from their sales force, from staff, from informal talk with consumers at point of sale or with others in the same industry. They relied on business owners’ experience and learning from trial and error.

While 49 per cent reported they had tried outsourcing market research services in the past three years, nearly half were not satisfied. The top three reasons for being dissatisfied and saying they are not likely to use market research again were: 1. Did not provide value for money2. Did not solve business problem (after doing the research, the

owners received only general results and recommendations from research agencies that were considered as too broad, not practical and not particularly feasible to their business)

3. Based on inaccurate information (as a result of inappropriate research design, from talking to the wrong target, or from not asking the right questions).

Key barriers to usage The most significant barrier to research usage among SMEs in Vietnam is that it is perceived to be a cost item, not an investment. This is the result of not being able to see the benefits of research, nor seeing the linkage between market research and business success and failure.

The second barrier comes from the low awareness of what research is and how it could be used. Technical research terms such as qualitative, quantitative, usage and attitudes (U&A), concept test, price sensitivity and retail audit could be hard for SMEs (with no research background, no marketing background and even no formal business training background) to understand.

If market research products could be seen to help generate sales reports, consumer feedbacks reports, promotion preference reports, product rating reports and so on, then SMEs could link these to the immediate benefits of using research.

The third most serious barrier is SMEs’ management vision. Usually, if the owners do not trust market research agencies (as a result of either perception or past trial experience), then this would largely result in limited resources (people to absorb and use research) and limited or no budget for research.

On the other hand, agencies need to better demonstrate their ability to understand SMEs’ business, background, structure, people, and financial resources. Research products and models that are used for multinational corporations might not be appropriate in the SME sector.

To be more relevant, there needs to be a shift from research language to business language. Not only does the research prod-uct name need to change, but also the research tools need to be relevant to SME’s day-to-day business. These are the outcomes SMEs want to see:

• Sales reports• Distribution updates• Sales intelligence• Consumption trends• Product benchmarking• Price intelligence • Promotion plan • Investment maximisation• Growth maximisation• New market / product development (associated with new

risks, far away from experience and core expertise).

Key drivers Among SMEs interviewed in the survey, the most important driver of market research usage was the expectation that research should clearly identify SME’s strategic direction and also how to reach the end goal – the destination. They expect to see the researcher’s ability to act as a business and market-ing consultant. Not only do they expect to hear ‘what to do’, they also want to hear ‘how others did’. For them, research is a fact based business solution, thus research must show how it could actually solve the business problem. They expect researchers to show experience and real market validation from servicing other big multinational clients and explain how the big fishes did it.

Researchers need to conduct comprehensive pre-research dis-cussions and effectively act as an internal research department.

Adoption processKey decision makers for marketing strategy and market research

remain the SME’s owner, the managing director and the market-ing director (normally head hunted and hired from multinational companies).

Over the past five years in Vietnam, many SME owners have attended practical training courses in marketing and market re-search. They, in turn, send their marketing staff to these courses. As a result, they are getting to know about marketing and market research concepts and services.

In our recent survey with SMEs, the top source of research aware-ness and adoption is training. Usually, SMEs talk to the trainers for advice and also seek marketing consultant from this source.

In many other SMEs, the restructuring processes to cope with growth results in the employment of experienced marketing seniors (who used to work for multinational companies) and this also facili-tates the adoption of market research. These are often SMEs that sell, process and export raw materials. Now they are focusing more on domestic market, which requires serious brand building. They are seeing opportunities in the domestic growth but also seeing strong competition from multinationals. They feel the risk is high, they are now pulled out of their comfort zone and realise that relying on their own experience isn’t enough.

SMEs (in particular those operating in the FMCG sector) repre-sent an area of potentially strong growth for those operating in the Vietnamese market research industry. This segment is not easy to penetrate, with many barriers for research agencies to overcome. However, once SMEs trust and adopt research, a research agency could win a full annual research package and an exclusive deal.

Tran Ngoc Dung (executive director, FTA Marketing Research) and Tuong Tuan Thong (FTA Marketing Research) will present their paper titled ‘Market research for local SMEs in less developed countries’ at ESOMAR APAC 2011. The presentation will include a case study illustrating how Vietnamese company Nutifood used market research to grow its business. Tuong Tuan Thong

Tran Ngoc Dung



FEATURE

Gerline Soo, who moved to Shanghai from Singapore in 2003 and speaks Mandarin and Cantonese, is the regional director for Firefly Millward Brown.

‘Here in China you have a bigger budget and more clients who are hungry for information and need to be updated very quickly. The market is new to them but it is not only new, it is changing rapidly,’ she says.

Soo says that in comparison to markets like Singapore, lots of new product development projects and campaigns are developed specifically for China.

‘But the problem is that a lot of clients think that China is just one market when it is clearly not. They think it is good enough to know about Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing, they think that is 100 per cent China, but this is not the case. It’s not just the geographical differences, every city has its own characteristics.’

This point was put into sharp relief when Soo and her team undertook an ethnographic study in a small town in inland China.

‘We went to the village and stayed with people for two days, tracking and observing their lives. It was really quite different. The living standard is basic and they don’t have much entertain-ment. There is one restaurant in the hotel and that’s it. People go to sleep at 7 o’clock, and the streets are dark. So things that we take for granted here don’t exist there. That study left a deep impression on me.’

Soo explains that local brands are very strong in these areas. ‘There is no competition; it’s old China, so people are not exposed to a better brand or product. They tend to think that is the best, but if they were exposed to a different brand you’ll find they are very receptive to it. It is always easier for global brands to establish them-

selves in the bigger cities than in the smaller cities and villages.’ Shiri Atsmon is living in Shanghai with her husband and three

children. She came to Shanghai in 2006 and works as an associate director at Oracle Added Value. Atsmon grew up in Israel and spent time working at a law firm in the US and as a psycho-diagnostician for the Israeli Defences Forces.

‘I was certified as an attorney but before that I was working in the Israeli army. It is a very interesting profession and gave me great interviewing skills.’

Atsmon says that marketing teams in China are very open to new research. ‘People are humble and open to you as a researcher. You can help them to improve things or even to come up with completely new ideas - the impact you have as a researcher is meaningful and that is very satisfying. It just shows how dynamic China is, I have more exposure here to business and strategy issues, different categories and market development stages.’

The most successful international brands in China are those that commit wholeheartedly to understand the specificities of the Chinese consumer. Atsmon explains, ‘Many decide to launch a product that is a version of a European product; it’s not tailored to the local market. The brands that are doing the best are the brands that are designed for China.’

When asked about what the workplace is typically like, Atsmon says that the environment is supportive yet that there are, of course, some cultural differences.

‘The pressure to succeed in China is extremely high. For example, if you are a guy you can’t get married until you have an apartment. I hope in the future everyone can feel like they can take a break and devote more time for work and life balance. As an expat I am a bit of an odd

Doing market research in China keeps even the most experienced researchers on their toes. In a diverse market that is constantly changing it takes guts and commitment to keep up with the demands of clients. Katarina Olausson spoke with three expats about what it is like working and living in Shanghai.

fdd ducks

Shiri Atsmon Gerline Soo Jason SpencerShiri Atsmon Gerline Soo Jason Spencer


duck because I say, “Now I have to go home and tend to my kids”.’Before moving to China, Atsmon spent a couple of months

learning Mandarin. ‘Many people, when they arrive here, are totally immersed in their careers and it is difficult to take time off to learn a bit of Chinese. But if you have done a foundation course prior to coming it can be a springboard to further learning.’

It is rare for expats to end up in qualitative moderating roles because of the language barrier. Atsmon explains that even local moderators sometimes have difficulties because of the many dif-ferent dialects.

Another thing to keep in mind when working in China is that there is no such thing as an awkward silence and that it is important to be persistent and patient.

‘They can be silent until tomorrow. But once they talk they are blunt. It can be very refreshing so you just have to develop a thick skin. It is never intended to be malicious, it is about being communal, everyone is your friend and wants to help you,’ Atsmon explains.

Jason Spencer is the managing director for Millward Brown ACSR. He arrived in Shanghai from Australia for the first time in 1993. After a couple of years working in market research and as interpreter in both Hong Kong and Taiwan, Spencer had the opportu-nity to assist a colleague in starting up a new research company.

‘I was in a fairly senior position by that stage, working as a research director. But I didn’t feel like I had the knowledge and ex-perience to back me up. I felt that I was the white guy being pushed out there to face the client and I didn’t think I had the substance to support that. So I spoke to a contact of mine at Millward Brown. He said, “OK I’ll train you” and gave me a pay cut and put me down a level which was OK, I suggested he’d do that.’

Within 12 months Spencer was promoted and had gained a lot of experience and skills. ‘I really found that I had achieved what I wanted to achieve in terms of having the substance to stand up there and speak confidently to clients.’

What attracts Jason to working in China is that it is challenging. ‘In the last few years we have a group of clients that are extremely sophisticated and I would say even more sophisticated than what you would consider best practice in North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand.’

Spencer explains that there are also those clients who are less experienced in using and disseminating market research throughout their organisations and these require a different set of skills.

‘We have to convince them of the value of doing market research; we have to work hard at that and be emphatic with them. We need to take ourselves out of the comfort zone and experience someone else’s concerns and anxieties. So the spectrum that we need to cover can be quite diverse.’

Local Chinese companies are becoming more interested in doing research, Spencer says. ‘We recently finished the top 50 Chinese Brands study that looks at quantifying the value of a brand. We have a unique situation where a lot of Chinese brands are starting to ap-preciate the value of a brand.’

He adds, ‘the market is constantly evolving, constantly develop-ing; it’s a changing environment that suits certain personality types. There are times when I just need to get out of the country and go somewhere and lie on a beach to recover. But that’s fine, after a week I always find myself wanting to get back to the dynamism and the challenging environment that China is. It’s a beauti-ful lifestyle in Australia but after a couple of weeks back home I find myself with itchy feet.’

Katarina Olausson moved to Shanghai last month to work as an account manager at Firefly Millward Brown

‘Most researchers in Australia will end up doing international projects in parts of Asia at some point

in the careers,’ says Tracey Rankin from Yellow Door Research, which has conducted multi-country studies in the Asia Pacific region for many years. She says one

thing you quickly learn when it comes to qualitative research, is that if you just hand the materials to a

local field team you’ll get a mess.

‘Most of us learn the hard way that you have to be there on the ground, to make sure they’re asking the

right questions and probing in the right way. You really get to know a culture when you get things wrong.

And your results are only as good as your simultaneous translator. Once you establish a good

network in Asia, you can tap into that.’

Rankin, who is heading back to India this month to present her research findings to an local client, says she believes there is a growing market for research

in the Asia Pacific region and clients are showing increasing interest in more complex methodologies.

FEATURE


STATISTICS

If I asked how many clients you had inad-vertently misled in the past 12 months, you might be justly indignant. So, I will

rephrase the question. How many times have you reported results simply because they were statistically significant? How often have you scanned through a set of tables, searching for the little asterisks denoting significant results, reporting findings on that basis? How often have you agonised about leaving out results that were ‘almost significant’?

How can I use ‘misled’ and ‘statistically sig-nificant’ in the same paragraph? Everyone knows that testing quant findings in this way is standard practice and is taught in the finest academies.

Our own Code of Professional Behaviour, when discussing what a client is entitled to (Sec-tion D; point 4), includes ‘… and of the levels of statistical significance of differences between key figures’. You can’t get more authoritative than that.

So, what is my concern about statistical sig-nificance testing and the way it is often applied in marketing research? Does it matter?

I will point to two issues in particular. One is the logic of significance testing; the other is the poor way it is implemented.

We market researchers often work under pressure to complete projects and get the results to a client. Anything that makes it easier for us to unravel the key findings is welcome. So, we look for the little asterisks. We want to tell our clients what is important and what is not. So we report significance. Fine goals; bad technique.

As the 1800s morphed into the 1900s, a number of people sought a way to distinguish random ‘noise’ from ‘real’ differences in data. One was William Gosset (the ‘student’ of the famous Student’s t-test who, happily, worked to perfect Guinness stout). Another was Ronald Fisher. They argued about the way a test for a real difference should be applied and the forceful Fisher won out. This left social science inheriting a flawed approach.

There are problems with the logic Fisher ad-vocated and most researchers misunderstand it anyway. Indeed, if you ask researchers to interpret what a significance test is telling them, they are usually wrong — and studies amongst groups of academics have shown that the ma-jority of them don’t understand the meaning either. Amazing, I know, but that just shows how a poorly understood idea can take hold and become a part of research tradecraft.

Something slightly significantFisher left us with a bizarre idea - that is

that there is a specific level of probability at which the whole world changes from ‘no’ to ‘yes’. One outcome is that we researchers are not supposed to take account of the costs of being wrong and the benefits of being right when deciding the worth of a result.

If you were researching the efficacy of a cancer cure, would you think the balance of the costs of being wrong with benefits of being right are the same as when you test the preferred flavour for a new ice cream? Fisher’s logic says both situations are to be treated in the same way. An implication is that we researchers can’t take account of clients’ differential willingness to accept the consequences of uncertainty in research findings. All clients, all risks and all benefits are the same.

In addition, whatever the logic, we do not give clients the level of skilled service for which they think they are paying when we:• Carry out significance tests after the data

are in, missing the point that if we did Power Analysis before the research was conducted we would have known that there was no way the sample could deliver a significant result. Might a client make a case for deceptive and misleading conduct or negligence?

• Ignore the fact that whether or not a result is significant is a function of the sample size. This means that we might report ‘significant’ findings when they are in fact trivially small. This makes research look disconnected from the realities of the com-mercial environment.

• Don’t report the confidence intervals for results, hence not giving the client (or our-selves) the chance to see just how large a difference really is in the context for which the findings are to be used.

Rob Hall, director, Environmetrics

There will be a NewMR virtual event that explores text analytics. Titled ‘Listening is the New Asking!’ it takes place online on 8 March. To find out more visit http://newmr.org/page/listening-2011. Research News will look at text analysis in more detail in the April edition.

If you’d like to contribute, email [email protected]

THE WORD’S OUT

Social media is all about language and the written word. People are writing more than ever before with status updates, tweets

and blogs. There is now a constant stream of text about what we do and think. Of course this is a huge opportunity for market research.

The question becomes how to process the never-ending streams of text available on social media. Computers are good at calculations, but text analysis has always been the problem child. Language has a complexity that simple numbers can’t capture.

Two schools of thought seem to be crystallis-ing as to how we analyse social media. The first emphasises what is generally called ‘natural language processing’. Using this approach com-prehension comes via computerised parsing and analysis of the text based on our understanding of language. Grammar is the key. The second approach is statistical. It emphasises analytical techniques such as Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA), which uses the statistical properties of text to glean meaning from it.

Text analytics is the new frontier that market research must conquer. The sheer volume of text can’t be ignored, but it can’t be coded and tabulated the same way open ends are today. There is simply too much. In some senses the contest of grammar versus statistics has already been decided. When you look at text from social media it isn’t gram-matically correct, because we don’t speak and communicate in formal blocks of text using perfect grammar. Hence the grammar route is fundamen-tally at a disadvantage. The argot of web may well defy parsing. It’s significant that search engines such as Google and Yahoo use techniques very close to LSA to process documents and decide how they are related. The core metric of LSA is word counts and co-occurrence of words in documents. Given that search engines are the tools that have made the web usable it is worth paying attention to this.

The problem is sentiment. One of the critical tasks for analysis of social media is deciding if a tweet or status update has a positive or negative tone. Is the buzz about a product good or bad? If you can automatically tell the sentiment of comments

Language, social media and thoughtrelating to products or services you have a powerful research tool. Sentiment analysis is currently a hard thing to do accurately. Anything over 75 per cent ac-curacy in sentiment analysis is currently regarded as pretty good, but this still leaves a large margin for error. At the moment the only accurate way to assess sentiment is for a human to read the text, but there is simply too much text being produced by social media for this to be practical.

Sentiment analysis of social media is rapidly becoming the ultimate goal for text analysis and market research. We need more sentiment to master social media.

Andrew Jeavons is a member of Nebu, which is working to bring innovation to survey software. You can contact him at [email protected] article was first published in Research World, the magazine for marketing intelligence and decision making published by ESOMAR. For more details go to http://rwconnect.esomar.org

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NARRATIVES

Though many researchers have indeed capitalised beautifully on the power of the medium, one can still say it’s under-

exploited, and seems to me a bit like the potato of research; a versatile and humble option which, given its merits, never quite seems to get the appreciation it deserves.

Why does a diary work? Well, fundamentally, recording a diary is an intensely personal expe-rience. It’s almost like talking to one’s alter ego, and thereby limiting filtration or sanitisation in its responses to the researcher’s questions.

A diary is also very well contextualised in the ‘now’, painting the moment in the moods and flavours of the instant, rather than looking at it through the lens of distant recall or post facto evaluation. Indeed Picasso had once called his art a kind of ‘visual diary’, which seems like a nice simile for the whole process of diarisation – just in reverse.

The other thing I personally love about the di-ary is its space for creativity – both on the part of the consumer and on the part of the researcher. Where else would one be able to put in pictures, collages or free text for one study, and switch to a much more structured approach in the next? It’s precisely this ability to be tailored that makes the diary such a versatile instrument.

Here are some examples of what I like, pulled out from papers, journals and work we’ve done in the past, both quantitative and qualitative, and the internet, which demonstrates the power of this instrument.

A brand equity research study was actually my first exposure to using a diary, and we used it as a supplement to ‘regular’ consumer groups in this study. The ‘spontaneous response’ argu-ment aside, sometimes it helps to give (at least some respondents) a moment of introspection before we bombard them with questions, and the diary was our version of consumer homework. We’d given these women an (identical) stack of magazines, and a blank set of notebooks, along with some thought-provoking assignments, in-structing them to select pictures which reminded them of various brands within the category, their relationships with these brands, how using these brands made them feel and so on. In sum, much of the regular stuff one would want to explore in an equity brand study. What stood out for us in this study was how enthusiastically (and cre-

atively) consumers expressed themselves, and the richness of the responses. It was almost as if the diary, coloured pens and magazines set the respondents free to go back and explore their inner worlds with an almost childlike pleasure. We got passionate (or tepid) love letters to the brand, collages that clearly demonstrated how two brands, both premium, could speak in differ-ent tones, moods and language (think Polo Club pictures vs. the F1) and much more. Really rich, textured output, and from a client perspective, easy to hold up to the guys who develop ads to say ‘See, this is what we mean!’

Since then we’ve used diaries extensively in qualitative research to explore communication, brand cues, moods, feelings and associations, and they have never disappointed. Just when we thought we’d done what we could with the diary, we were faced with an interesting busi-ness problem; how to evaluate consumer reac-tions for a new category we wanted to enter. Any researcher faced with this question knows there’s really no point in asking consumers what they think about something they’ve never seen or used. At the same time, we did want to get a more ‘real’ response, based on what consumers were likely to go through when they actually used the product.

So, the task was to get something that told us what they felt ‘in the now’ rather than on the spur of the moment (freshly exposed), or days later in a reconvened group (when they may not remember they’d had a hard time opening

the pack, for example). Here, a semi-structured usage diary helped quite a bit. When people told us they put on something and ‘massaged it onto the scalp’ for example, we could easily link it back to their subsequent dissatisfaction with the product (that’s not how it was meant to be used!). Similarly, when a 25-year-old wrote about a little test she did to evaluate whether the product worked, we could translate those cues into communications almost immediately. And when we did, guess what, the communica-tion worked really well!

From a quantitative perspective, usage diaries have been used in social research forever. Typical uses have included monitoring how people man-age time or money and monitoring media con-sumption, all before the advanced measurement options became available today. The ‘time-budget’ schedule, pioneered by Sorokin in the 1930s, (Sorokin & Berger 1938) involved respondents keeping a detailed log of how they allocated their time during the day. Since then, diaries have been used in transport planning studies, expenditure monitoring studies and to set weights for the retail price index in the UK.

Our exposure to quantitatively using diaries came with the Unilever Social Mission on Oral Care, where we were faced with the daunting task of evaluating behaviour (and behaviour change) on a ‘real’ and not a claimed basis. To make matters worse, our target respondent was the bottom of the pyramid consumer, with possibly low literacy. High technology solutions did exist, but finally

In praise of the humble potato‘I do not keep a diary. Never have. To write a diary every day is like returning to one’s own vomit,’ says J. Enoch Powell. Luckily for most of us, writing and reading diaries – both our own and those of others – is actually quite a pleasant experience. Namita Mediratta reports.

Namita Mediratta

NARRATIVES

implementing those came down to infrastructure adequacy and time-cost constraints. We needed something that could be rolled out easily and simply – not a budget-eating gorilla.

The brains at TNS came to our rescue, and designed a nice visual sticker diary which involved the respondent and her child sticking visually at-tractive stickers to help the respondent keep track of her daily schedule (including media habits, food and drink schedules and, no surprises here, the child’s brushing habits, among other things). In administering this like a dipstick, we could get real behaviour change data including consumer response to stimulus. This had many advantages – it was simple, adaptable, and engaging for mother and child to do collaboratively, without being overly dependent on literacy rates.

Surprisingly for us, both at the pilot stage and in the study itself, we didn’t get people randomly sticking things on the diary or low income kids getting carried away by the novelty of the stickers. In fact, if anything, the opposite was true. At the pilot stage, people came to us saying they’d mistakenly stuck a wrong sticker somewhere, how could they erase it? Or worse, they had watched a TV channel that didn’t have a corresponding sticker in the diary! And we had

to include blank ‘correction’ stickers in the diary for just such eventualities. So people did have fun with the instrument, but they didn’t abuse it. I assume that conscientiousness varies by target group of course, though I’m more inclined to trust consumers in the first instance and see how it goes in a pilot.

Praising the humble potato is one thing – one has to acknowledge that too much of it does make you fat. So there came a time when we did feel we might end up stretching it a bit. For example, like it or not, people don’t carry diaries around, or have the willpower to jot down every insignificant thing - so let’s say you’re trying to measure out-of-home ice cream consumption, or you want to know how many tissues are used in a day when someone has a cold. These are possibly instances where diaries won’t work as well. Neither should we expect people to stick to the regime day in and day out. I can certainly see how respondent fatigue could set in after being asked to record, say, ‘Did you drink coffee in the morning?’ for weeks on end. If it’s not a habit that’s at least slightly variable, or if the task is not in some way interesting, dairies may not be the answer.

Maggie Golding, qualitative researcher at Millward Brown Singapore, emphasises the

importance of keeping a diary interesting. She uses colours, visuals, collages, and provocative questions to lead the consumer into a more introspective frame of mind where they’re more involved, rather than a ‘Let’s tick the boxes’ kind of thinking.

And then maybe it is time to switch over to the newer avatars of the diary – online journals with timers that automatically monitor compli-ance rates and remind you to fill it in, picture banks from the internet, using the mobile phone creatively to get ‘diary-like’ questions or video-based diaries. ‘Auto-ethnography’ is one of the words researchers are using. Well, a genetically modified potato remains, after all, a potato, and it’s still as versatile!

Namita Mediratta is regional consumer and market insights director of hair care at Unilever AsiaThis article was first published in Research World, the magazine for marketing intelligence and decision making published by ESOMAR. For more details go to http://rwconnect.esomar.orgEditor’s note: There has also been significant academic research that has tested diary reliability.

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COVER TO COVER

enough for me (already a convert to their ‘liberal paternalism’ prior to reading the first page) to have their case built successfully. My appetite was whet for ideas. Unfortunately, as the book wears on so do the examples they use to build their case. Some of the case studies were a little too obvious, repetitive and, in some instances, not structured well enough to be convincing. And despite warning their readers of the dangers of creating a dichotomous world, they often use this paradigm as a tool to express their point of view – the ‘noodge’ pervades.

Fortunately, the allure of the ‘wink’ returns, along with the promise of ideas and inspiration coming to fruition. The writers provide current, pragmatic examples of ‘nudges’ we all could incor-porate into our lives to create positive change and some ‘pie-in-the sky’ examples of how governments could implement ‘nudges’ with regard to some of the greater challenges the world is confronting, such as global warming. The authors’ deconstruction (and subsequent reconstruction) of ‘marriage’ also

provides some nutritious morsels for thought. One of the key successes of Nudge is the

concept of ‘choice architecture’. The idea is one of great efficacy for social and market researchers. It is a powerful reminder of the role that we play in the world around us and the power we have in the construction of ‘choice’ in the modern world. These are considerations that encompass all that we do. As researchers, we are ‘choice architects’ - from designing a survey, to the way we collect our data and reward participants to the data we chose to present or omit in our reports to clients. Nudge helped with my realisation of this and prompted some thinking about how I can influence choice not only as a researcher but also as a human being. As ‘choice architects’, we are encouraged to explore, uncover and drive change.

Thusly, I was ‘nudged’ – how about you? (Wink, wink.)

Damian Vanderwolf, discoverer, Tribe Research

Nudge, nudge; wink, wink?Damian Vanderwolf reviews Nudge – Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness by Richard H Thaler & Cass R Sunstein

When combined with a wink, a little tongue-in-cheek sassy is thrown into the mix – always a preferred blend

in my book. And you? A little ‘wink’ with your ‘nudge’? Otherwise, without a little ‘wink’ things may deteriorate into nothing more than a ‘noodge’ (as the book explains, ‘noodge’ is a ‘Yiddishism’ for a ‘pest, annoying nag or persistent complain-er’). And no-one likes a ‘noodge’, do they?

Nudge’s opening chapters are roseate, with a delicate scent of ‘a wink’ in the wind – the prom-ise of new ideas or even inspiration. As the book progresses, however, the presence of the ‘noodge’ becomes apparent. Don’t lose hope though, that rosy aroma returns at the conclusion of the book.

The authors Thaler and Sunstein start off by ex-plaining the political potency of the ‘nudge’ and pro-vide some intriguing examples of how nudges have been effectively used in everyday situations. They even entreat their readers to solve riddles in their efforts to build their case. These examples were

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Riccardo CristianoTo: Research manager, Vivid ResearchFrom: InnatemotionCristiano joins Vivid Research as research man-ager on the qualitative side of the business. He was previously at brand consultancy Innatemotion and brings experience from working across Asia on brand architecture and insight.

Katarina OlaussonTo: Account manager, Firefly Mill-ward Brown ShanghaiFrom: Senior research executive, GA ResearchOlausson is a qualitative researcher with five years experience working on research projects across a range of industry sectors. Prior to GA Research she worked for arnold&bolingbroke.

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Mandy AylesTo: Account manager, Vivid From: Senior pollinator, Pollinate Ayles started her career at Synovate in the UK but her interest in media and creative development took her to Human Capital working on TV and print media projects. After moving down under in 2004, she helped grow the qualitative division at communications research company Pollinate. Ayles has nine years’ experience in a range of qualitative methodologies across a variety of blue chip industries. Suzanne El GhorabTo: Research executive, VividFrom: English teacherEl Ghorab graduated from the University of London with a masters in politics and in 2008 she moved here to teach English to foreign language students. She joins Vivid keen to learn all aspects of qualitative research and feed her interest in what drives peoples’ behaviour.

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HR, LEADERSHIP & MANAGEMENT AN ETHICAL QUESTION

The Robert Walters survey found that recruitment activity increased steadily during 2010, as companies recovered

from the economic downturn and sought to rebuild marketing and sales teams. The survey concluded that recruitment activity across all sectors is expected to increase in 2011, as companies seek to grow headcount and deliver major projects.

Rowan Haylett from the Resources Group agrees with the findings.

‘2010 was a far busier year in the market research and insights sector than 2009, with demand for staff across all levels and specialisa-tions increasing as the year went on. This demand appears to be continuing into 2011 and is result-ing in a strengthening of offers in the sector as employers compete for the best applicants. The increased demand for talent has also opened the door once again to overseas applicants.’

Andy McLellan from AML Resources also says that demand for market research professionals has increased in the Sydney and Melbourne mar-kets and, to a lesser extent, Brisbane.

‘In the main, this has mostly been at the senior end as those with 10 or more years exit to either start up their own small and medium enterprises (SMEs), join the smaller niche boutiques or pursue other vocations outside the industry.’

McLellan says that in particular demand exceeds supply on the agency side, as client-side roles appeal to and attract mid and senior level researchers.

There is a lot of demand for candidates with experience in qualitative research, busi-ness development and people management, however McLellan says there is a lack of investment in developing people’s skills to undertake these roles.

‘Investment in bringing in juniors is also required, so we are still able to compete in five to 10 years. New managers need to be trained in how to mentor and develop their staff, and not everyone is suited to a business develop-ment role.’

McLellan says there are a number of senior people looking for part-time employment (three to four days per week) due to family commit-ments and only a small number of agencies are able to offer such flexibility. He believes part-time work is more accepted on the client side.

McLellan adds, ‘Account directors in both qual and quant roles are in high demand, particularly those with experience in shopper insights, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), telecommunications and the social and govern-ment sector. Currently it is a candidate driven market.’

Candidate driven marketA recent global salary survey compiled by international recruitment consultancy Robert Walters predicts that demand for sales, marketing and communications professionals is expected to increase this year in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Research News asked recruitment consultants who specialise in the market and social research industry to comment.

No. 188 in a series based on the Code of Professional Behaviour

Storing data overseasWe’re based in Australia and have just completed a merger with another company

based in Singapore and as a result have moved into modern offices that don’t have much storage. My company has a lot of paper records including questionnaires, hand written notes from depth interviews and copies of reports. We are considering merging some of our files with the Singapore based firm and keeping some records there and some of theirs here. What do we need to keep and where do we need to keep it?

You don’t have to keep anything in its original form; electronic versions including

scans of documents are sufficient providing records are kept in a manner that allows you to reconstruct the originals with the exception of personal identifiers. The notes to Rule 22 of the Code of Professional Behaviour list the following requirements for data storage:• Identified data should be de-identified as soon

as practicable after completion of the project.• Where there is no upfront agreement on the

length of time for which records should be kept, the default is to keep de-identified primary field records (questionnaires, transcripts etc)

for ad hoc projects for a minimum of one year following completion of fieldwork and the data for two years.

• The length that records should be kept relates to the nature of the information, for example, tracking studies run over lengthy periods and it is appropriate to keep data for more than two years, longitudinal data must be kept so that it can be re-identified and also for lengthy periods if the study is continuing over a long period.

It is best to agree the length of time that records will be kept prior to commencing a project. In the case of a company merger, any such agreements from any of the merging companies should be honoured.

Regarding where you should store the records, it is best to store them where they have been collected and will be needed, especially if the information would be stored in countries that do not have equivalent data protection laws to Australia or ‘safe harbour’ arrangements.

Jayne Van Souwe is the convenor of the National Ethics Committee. To ask an ethical question contact Jayne on 03 9621 1066 or [email protected]

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CONTINUED ON PAGE 29


SOCIETY NEWS

SOCIETY NEWS

AN ETHICAL QUESTION

However, Christine Crowe at CCI says, ‘We can’t see a huge growth in wages in market research based on the placements over the last year. They appear to be consistent across all com-panies and haven’t risen significantly for the past couple of years. Who knows how hiring managers will react when they can no longer attract appro-priate candidates to fill their vacancies? This is starting to happen, as we have 142 vacancies to fill in Sydney alone and are finding it increasingly difficult to find candidates, particularly as the government has taken market research off the skilled migration occupation list.

‘Rather than focus on salaries perhaps the market research industry on a whole should be focusing on lobbying the government to put mar-ket research back on the skills shortage list.’

Market Search’s founder Lyn Tanner is a member of Recruitment Consulting Services Australasia (RCSA) so is in close contact with a number of her industry colleagues and sub-sequently receives regular feedback on the activity in a number of sectors. She also par-ticipates in the quarterly industry survey that is done to measure the activity in the market on both present and anticipated growth and salary variations.

While she agrees that the year has started steadily in the market research industry with an anticipation of growth during 2011, she believes there is still considerable caution being exercised because employers are uncertain how interna-tional markets will affect the economy. Colleagues in other sectors have confirmed this as well.

‘In general market research companies have commented that the year has started well and they are expecting that this will be a year of consolidation and slight growth. I was delighted to learn that Millward Brown had just taken on a number of new graduates (I believe eight), which positively augurs well for the industry in general.

‘Most MR companies have commented that they are busy and doing well (“and it’s a far cry from 2009”) and while there has been a reason-ably high demand for new staff from director to junior researchers, the recruitment and decision making process remains slow and deliberate. This to me indicates that there is no great urgency to employ despite initial requests of immediacy. The four-interview process continues and thus, due to the candidate shortage in all skill areas, a number of desired candidates can be lost to the competition.’

HR, LEADERSHIP & MANAGEMENT

AMSRS invests in interactive tools The Society now supports the AMSRS LinkedIn discussion group at http://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostPopular=&gid=2205881

At the time of writing, there were about 500 members following the AMSRS discussion group on LinkedIn (while about one in six were actively participating – a percentage the Society would like to increase).

We want high quality discussions and depth of member engagement - but we do want to have ‘critical mass’ in terms of sufficient num-bers, a broad cross-section of the Australian research community, and all those regarded as ‘key stakeholders’ involved whenever a topic is being discussed.

Encourage your colleagues, clients and researcher friends to join the group. If you go to the top right of the main group page, you can click on ‘Invite others’ and send invitations out direct to others you are connected with on LinkedIn who you think would be interested in joining the AMSRS Group.

Other things you can do to help are: • Add a message on your status update say-

ing something like ‘AMSRS LinkedIn Group nearing xxx members. Please join and spread the word.’

• Send out a tweet and/or re-tweet others’ messages of encouragement to join

• Add a post on the AMSRS LinkedIn group

board or click ‘like’ for discussions you like and want to follow so this flags up the exis-tence of the group to your LinkedIn contacts.

Also check out:• The AMSRS page on Facebook at www.face-

book.com/pages/AMSRS-The-Australian-Market-and-Social-Research-Society/

• The Society on Twitter at www.twitter.com/amsrs_au

• Research News at www.twitter.com/ researchnewsmag

Research News April 2011 edition

INTUITION AND GUT FEELING

Should we ask the following question more often: ‘I know the answer - why are we doing this research?’ What happens when clients disregard research findings? A look at ‘ensemble methods’ such as ‘wisdom of the crowds’ and ‘random forests’. The HR perspective - psych testing vs ‘fire in the belly’ and ‘spark in the eye’. What have researchers learnt from Malcolm Gladwell, Harry Klein and Jonah Lehrer. Are women really more intuitive?

DEADLINE: 10 MARCH 2011


For full course information and to register visit: www.amsrs.com.au NOTE: ALL PRICES INCLUDE GST

Fundamentals of qualitative researchVIC: 8 March 2011

NSW: 15 March 2011

Cost: $462 AMSRS members, $660 non-members

This course provides an overview of qualitative research. Content includes the logistics involved in running a qualitative project, the main types of qualitative data collection, the role of the moder-ator and how to create the right environment for respondents, different ways of eliciting a deeper consumer response and the process of analysis and report writing for qualitative research. Designed for those who are new to qualitative research – on the buyer or supplier side.

Effective research buying ACT: 16 March 2011

Cost: $462 AMSRS members, $660 non-members

This course is aimed at those on the buyer side of the industry, specifically current and aspir-ing market and social research, information and communication managers and government officers involved in the preparation of programs and implementation of policies. Speakers will be from both the public and private sectors. On completion of the course, participants will have a good understanding of why market and social research is valuable to an organisation,

defining research requirements and preparing a brief, managing a major research project, the relationship with the supplier and going beyond the report to getting the results heard. Course presenters are professional practising market research managers and buyers who are able to provide unique, ‘real world’ insights in their areas of expertise.

Webinar – How to incorporate social media into your businessNATIONAL: 5 April 2011

NSW, VIC, ACT, TAS: 3.30pm – 4.30pm

QLD: 3.30pm – 4.30pm

SA: 3pm – 4pm

NT: 3pm – 4pm

WA: 1.30pm – 2.30pm

Cost: $55 AMSRS members; $77 non-mem-bers

With the mass adoption of social media and on-line networking tools such as Linkedin, Facebook and Twitter, there is an opportunity for agencies to learn more about - and connect directly with - their most valuable asset base – their customers. This webinar, with Prashant Hari, discusses how an agency of any size can establish an online presence that generates awareness, inquiries and leads using key social media platforms.

QPMR recognition: 5 points

Statistics todayQLD: 6 April 2011

Cost: $462 AMSRS members; $638 non-members

Critical to the successful application of statistics in business is the need to clearly identify which analytical approach is best suited to addressing the need and to provide business insight founded on the analytical outcomes. The objective of this course is therefore about making the right choice of statistical techniques and then drawing the best inferences from the output. Course leader is Gerrie Roberts from Monash University & Roberts Research Group


Presentation and influencing skillsNSW: 13 April 2011

VIC: 12 April 2011

Cost: $550 AMSRS members; $770 non-members

This is an intensive one-day workshop, limited to10 participants. Conducted by Belinda Giblin, a well-known corporate trainer, presenter and actor, this workshop deals with structuring a presentation and delivering it for maximum im-pact. Impromptu presentations are also covered. This is hands-on and each participant will receive personalised tuition.


TAKE THE BULL BY THE HORNSPDP The Society wishes to thank ORC International, the major sponsor of the 2010-2011 Professional Development Program (PDP)

PDP CALENDAR

For full program, times, and sponsorship opportunities, please visit www.amsrs.com.au

The WA State Conference Platinum Sponsor:

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