research & systematic observations (ix) vulnerability assessment, impacts and adaptation...
DESCRIPTION
(Science&Research Project) Climate Science, Data Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Regional Scenario Variability, Extrems Observations Hydrology Agriculture Forestry Human HealthTRANSCRIPT
Research & Systematic Observations (IX)Research & Systematic Observations (IX)
Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII)Adaptation Measures (VII)
National Climate Program CZECH REPUBLIC
presented by
Jan PretelCzech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague
UNFCCC Workshop on 3rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001
Parts VII and IX of the 3.NCNational Climate Program (establ. 1990)• improve scientific cooperation on national level• 1st national project 1991-1992• US Country Study Programme 1993-1996• several small projects supported by Ministry of
Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Academy of Sci., Charles University, Czech Grant Agency, etc.
• Decisions 14/CP.4, 5/CP.5• preparatory phase of new national project 1999• 2nd national project 2000-2001(Science&Research Project)• focused on IPCC TAR and 3rd NC
1999-2001(Science&Research Project)
ClimateScience, Data
VulnerabilityImpacts
Adaptation
Regional Scenario
Variability, Extrems
Observations
Hydrology
Agriculture
Forestry
Human Health
Climate models – nodal point positions C - CGCM1, CS - CSIRO, E - ECHAM4, H - HadCM2, NC - NCAR3, SR - CCSR
E E E E
E E E E
H H H H
H H H H
H H H H
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2442
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
C S C S C S
C S C S C S
N C N C N C N C
N C N C N C N C
C C C C
C C C C
C C C C
S R S R S R
S R S R S R
Model validy HadCM2 Tmean
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
50 / 11,25 50 / 15 50 / 18,7550 / 22,5 average Czech Republic
[°C]
Regional Climate Change Scenarios
• IPCC DDC• downscaling• temperature - 2030
– increase by• spring 1.0 oC, summer 1.6 oC, autumn 1.2 oC, winter 0.9 oC,
year 1.2 oC
• precipitation – 2030– increase by 3-8%
• predominantly in winter
Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)
0
50
100
150
200
250
:> 0,1 MM > 1 MM > 5 MM
Number of days with precipitation above given thresholdsKlatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
> 10 mm > 20 mm > 30 mm > 50 mm
Number of days with daily minimum air temperature below given threshold
Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
< 0°C <-5°C < -10°C < -15°C
Number of days with daily maximum air temperature above given threshold
Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
> 15°C > 20°C > 25°C > 30°C
Hydrology and Water Resources
• effects on streamflow, groundwater recharge, runoff, water quality
• temperature increase by 2oC ~ streamflow reduction by 10-15% due to evaporation
• flood magnitude and frequency in some regions• water quality degradation• potable water production and consumption
Hydrology and Water Resources
• adaptation– water resource management techniques– effective use of water– trade with water– reduction of water shrinkage– water use reduction in industry, energy, agriculture
sectors and households– part of State Environmental Policy– sustainable development
Agriculture
• crop yield respons to climate change• shift to more thermophilic crops• effect of plant heat stress (extreme temperature
events)• less moisture in growing season• heavy rain periods (june, september) erosion• crop modelling assessment
Agriculture
• modelled climate change effect– CO2 increase: corn +24%, wheat +33%– T + CO2 increase: corn +16%, wheat +31%
• adaptation– agrotechnical management – adjustment to planting dates– fertilization rates– irrigation applications– selections of plants, species
Forestry
• 22% of territory covered by forests (spruce 54%, pine 18%)
• climate change effects on forests– dry stress– combined effects (air temperature + soil moisture +
local air quality)• adaptation
– change of tree species, shift to foliate trees, integrated forest protection
– changed forest management