Kristin Remm 1

Natural Disaster Frequency and its Correlation to Community Cohesion

Introduction

Problem Statement

Natural disasters have an effect not only at the individual level, but also the

community level. Psychological impacts are prevalent among disaster victims and often

have an effect on the coping mechanisms utilized by the individuals and the community as

a whole.

Research Question

How does the frequency of natural disaster impact the level of cohesion found in

affected communities?

Definition of Terms

According to the Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2012, natural disasters are

defined as “an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction

and human suffering.” Communities often practice preparedness, which is “the step dealing

with all the pre-disaster activities intended to increase the effectiveness of emergency

response during a disaster” as well as mitigation during the event, which is the “long-term

activities undertaken prior to impact and the aim is to reduce the risk or occurrence and/or

effect of a disaster.” (Abaya, S. W., Mandere, N., & Ewald, G. (2009). Floods and health in

Gambella region, Ethiopia: a qualitative assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of

coping mechanisms. Global health action, 2). Determining the number of victims due to a

natural disaster is “equal to the sum of persons reported killed and the total number of

persons reported affected.” Not only do natural disasters result in victims but also result in

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incredible economic impact, which is “the registered figure corresponding to the estimated

value of the direct damage occasioned by the event.” (Guha-Sapir, D., Vos, F., Below, R., &

Ponserre, S. (2013). Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2012: The Numbers and Trends,

published by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Brussels).

Literature Review

Introduction

Natural disasters are becoming increasingly frequent in our nation, according to

data found in The International Disaster Database, and disaster relief efforts seem

ineffective when compared to the growing number of natural disasters. A natural disaster’s

impact is computed using the total number of victims along with the overall economic

impact. The overall economic impact includes direct damage, which is considered as

destruction to infrastructures, crops, housing, etc. and indirect damage, which consists of

revenue depletion, increasing unemployment rates and market deterioration. In 2013,

Nebraska alone had 1 fatality, 20 injuries, $43.77 million in property damage, $126.01

million in crop damage, totaling $169.78 million in damage cost. ((2014) Summary of

Natural Hazard Statistics for 2013 in the United States. National Weather Service. 22 July

2014. Web. 15 October 2014.). Nebraska is included in Tornado Alley, which is simply “a

nickname given to an area in the southern plains of the central United States that

consistently experiences a high frequency of tornadoes each year.” (Data, S. (1995).

National climatic data center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ISSN, 0039-

1972). Communities that reside in the Tornado Alley need to implement policies specific to

tornado relief. The American Red Cross, an organization that works toward providing

education, resources, relief and assistance to those in need, has tips, information and

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policies related to community preparedness, response, and recovery after the event of a

natural disaster located on their webpage. Classes are offered at over 1,000 Red Cross

locations across the nation in order to educate individuals on how to respond before,

during and after a natural disaster. Is it enough though? Is there more communities can do

to spread awareness and enforce policies to decrease the effect natural disasters have on a

community? Oklahoma suffered the most casualties in 2013 with 49 deaths, Nevada and

Illinois coming in second (42 casualties) and third (39 casualties). In the last 10 years

there have been 551 deaths due to natural disasters with excessive heat being at the top of

that list with 123 deaths. ((2014) Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2013 in the

United States. National Weather Service. 22 July 2014. Web. 15 October 2014.). In my

study I noted one specific trend that came up in majority of my articles. Communities lack

effective policies and guidelines when it comes to natural disaster preparedness, mitigation

and relief efforts. Most of the policies in place are no longer effective and community

efforts seem to be lacking.

Three issues, or factors, are particularly relevant to my study, however I directed

my research toward natural disaster frequency as being a factor in coping mechanisms

used by individual victims as well as an overall sense of community cohesion following a

natural disaster. In order to compliment this research, I investigated certain mental

health/trauma effects victims often deal with and finally I looked into the warning

performance done by National Weather Services. All of these areas of focus inform my

main focus on what improvements can be made in order to decrease fatalities, injuries and

costs due to natural disasters.

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Mental Health/Trauma

Research concerning mental and psychological issues that victims often experience

used interviews as the main methodological approach used by researchers. In some

articles pertaining to mental health, self-perceived surveys and self-reported

measurements were employed as well. While most of these studies were short-term, data

gathering investigations, some required long-term participation. PTSD was a common

theme in articles relating to mental health and trauma. Reports show that PTSD, “a chronic

and disabling disorder associated with increased substance abuse, suicidal ideations,

comorbid psychiatric disorders and physical health problems in the long term,” occurs 43%

of the time in earthquake victims just after the event. 63% of earthquake survivors

experience PTSD symptoms only 14 months after the event. “The prevalence of PTSD was

39% among victims that had not sought treatment 20 months after” the event (Oflaz, F.,

Hatipoğlu, S., & Aydin, H. (2008). Effectiveness of psychoeducation intervention on post‐

traumatic stress disorder and coping styles of earthquake survivors. Journal of Clinical

Nursing, 17(5), 677-687). Other such studies reported “elevated post event difficulties,

including anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress,” however, the outcomes depended

on the demographics of the individual as well as factors specific to the event, such as

severity, type of disaster, exposure level, and amount of loss experienced (Tuason, M. T. G.,

Güss, C. D., & Carroll, L. (2012). The disaster continues: A qualitative study on the

experiences of displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors. Professional Psychology: Research

and Practice, 43(4), 288). A unique finding found in one specific study reported that

victims of a specific natural disaster had previously experienced demanding life

circumstances, some pertaining to the family unit and others dealing with financial

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struggles and confrontations with law enforcement. Uncertainty and panic were common

emotions experienced in study participants when preparing for the impending storm.

Some participants in the study reported being “unaware of the storm’s path,

underestimating its severity, overestimating their own capacities, or simply having no

other resources besides their homes, which they wanted to protect.” (Tuason, M. T. G., Güss,

C. D., & Carroll, L. (2012). The disaster continues: A qualitative study on the experiences of

displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice,

43(4), 288). Of course, after the event, victims recounted experiencing immense grief,

overwhelming distress and uncertainty about their current state. Among these emotions

were feelings of terror, shock, and anguish. Many fought with the question as to why this

had happened to them and what they were going to do in order to recover. The process of

relocating had harsh impact on victim’s coping strategies.

Coping Mechanisms

Coping strategies used by victims of natural disaster are directly influenced by not

only the community, in which they reside, but also the state and national level. Recovery

programs, however, seem to be lacking in areas, such as relocation. Victims of natural

disasters recount feeling “that they had to fight for resources to rebuild their lives…and

that after being displaced; feeling abandoned by local and federal government and

perceived that they had not been considered a priority or been well cared for by the

entities charged with protecting them.” (Tuason, M. T. G., Güss, C. D., & Carroll, L. (2012).

The disaster continues: A qualitative study on the experiences of displaced Hurricane

Katrina survivors. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 43(4), 288). Research

indicates that according to the Repression – Sensitization Model, there are “two avenues of

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coping: (1) withdrawing and believing that threat or risk do not exist in the present

situation; and (2) worrying excessively and obsessing over stress-related symptoms and

cues. The Repression Model is frequently mentioned in research. Most natural disaster

victims’ withdrawal from their current situation and try to act like it never happened.

“While some find comfort in talking about what happened, others prefer to avoid the topic

and have a strong preference for not discussing it.” (von Peter, S. (2009). The concept of

‘mental trauma’ and its transcultural application. Anthropology and Medicine, 16(1), 13-25).

Though this strategy to cope with the current situation is common amongst victims, it is

found that it has very negative effects on their mental health and wellbeing. Coping

mechanisms, such as problem-solving, social support seeking and avoidance were

investigated in order to determine their correlation with PTSD symptoms and depression

in victims of natural disaster. Results indicate that “those who had lower avoidance tended

to have higher social support-seeking scores, lower depression and lower PTSD scores.”

(Oflaz, F., Hatipoğlu, S., & Aydin, H. (2008). Effectiveness of psychoeducation intervention

on post‐traumatic stress disorder and coping styles of earthquake survivors. Journal of

Clinical Nursing, 17(5), 677-687). This research determines that positive coping strategies,

such as reaching out and practicing problem-solving, help minimize and decrease the risk

of PTSD and depression.

Other statistical findings come to mind concerning the topic of coping mechanisms.

Anna Bokszczanin conducted a study focusing on the family unit and its response to a

significant flood 28 months after the matter. Anna’s methodology consisted of

questionnaires handed out to a randomly selected number of students based on their

school. The questionnaires consisted of questions concerning exposure to “trauma,

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parental support, family conflict, overprotectiveness, and PTSD symptoms.” All of these of

course, were self-perceived by the students. (Bokszczanin, A. (2008). Parental support,

family conflict, and overprotectiveness: Predicting PTSD symptom levels of adolescents 28

months after a natural disaster. Anxiety, Stress, & Coping, 21(4), 325-335). Another

example of a study concerning coping strategies that used quantitative, self-perceived

methods is an investigation done on alcohol consumption following a natural disaster. The

sample consisted of adults residing in areas that were affected by a 2004 tsunami. These

adults were given a postal questionnaire 6 months after the disaster. Using the information

from the questionnaires, the sample was then grouped according to their exposure level

(not exposed, non-danger exposed, danger exposed). Based on a scale from 1 to 5, the

questionnaire determined self-perceived changes in alcohol consumption, ranging from 1

(drink much more) to 5 (drink much less). To accompany this information, participants

were also asked how many alcoholic drinks they had consumed in a typical week (do not

drink alcohol, 1 drink, 2-5 drinks, 6-10 drinks, 11-20 drinks, >20 drinks). Though this

questionnaire is self-reported, the results are quantitative, because the numbers were then

converted into data, taking the average scores of each survey. (Nordløkken, A., Pape, H.,

Wentzel-Larsen, T., & Heir, T. (2013). Changes in alcohol consumption after a natural

disaster: a study of Norwegian survivors after the 2004 Southeast Asia tsunami. BMC public

health, 13(1), 58).

Warning Lead Time

Research about warning lead time utilized observation and a compare/contrast

methodology when conducting examinations on how to better improve tornado warning

lead times. This study investigated the improvements made in natural disaster recognition

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and warning when the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorological Education and

Training (COMET) outreach programs involved the National Weather Service (NWS) and

universities. This study compared the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratios

(FAR) from 3 years prior to the program and 3 years after the program was complete. The

probability of detection for both tornados and severe thunderstorms increased, along with

severe thunderstorm FAR. However, there was a slight decrease in tornado FAR for offices

that utilized COMET. This data is significant to my research because if lead time could

constantly be improved, communities would have that much more time to implement

response efforts before disaster strikes. (Waldstreicher, J. S. (2005). Assessing the impact

of collaborative research projects on NWS warning performance. Bulletin of the American

Meteorological Society, 86(2), 193-203).

In my research regarding natural disaster warning lead time I came across some

significant contradictions in research findings. One such contradiction can be found in two

studies, both concerning tornado warning lead time. Research was conducted about a

week long tornado outbreak in the States. Between May 3, 2003 and May 11, 2003, there

were a reported total of 361 tornados, resulting in a total fatality count of 41. After

reviewing the statistics of this research, I directed my attention to the article section

concerning the predictability of this tornado outbreak. The lead time the NWS provided

appeared to be sufficient though it could always be improved. Comparisons to past

outbreaks similar to the 2003 tornado outbreak determined that improved warning lead

times does in fact help minimize the loss of life. (Hamill, T. M., Schneider, R. S., Brooks, H.

E., Forbes, G. S., Bluestein, H. B., Steinberg, M., ... & Dole, R. M. (2005). Supplement to: The

May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,

Kristin Remm 9

86(4), ES17-ES20). This conclusion however was contradicted by another study conducted

concerning warning lead time. This research utilized radar data to indicate and distinguish

certain radar characteristics, characteristics that would in turn assist NWS officials in

differentiating certain tornados. These differentiations would help meteorologists in

classifying and applying accurate warnings to each weather system. However, the results

found in this study were incomplete because of the gaps and lack of information leading to

data error. Gaps in the study include relatively small sample sizes, as well as radar gaps

such as “the cone of silence. (Kuster, C. M., Burke, P., & Taylor, A. A. (2012). An 11-Year

Radar-Based Study of Tornadic Thunderstorms over Central Oklahoma. E-Journal of Severe

Storms Meteorology, 7(8)). The cone of silence is defined as a “cone-shaped region directly

above the radar site wherein nothing can be detected because no radar beams travel at a

high enough angle from the radar to detect data there.” (Duda, J. “How to Use and Interpret

Doppler Weather Radar. Web. 18 November 2014). When determining lead times, factors

such as “hardware or software changes, alterations to operational procedures, and

personal issues can affect lead time.” However, in contrast to Hamill et al, it was found a

low correlation between tornado warning lead time and the radar characteristics due to

numerous variables involved in the tornado warning process. (Kuster, C. M., Burke, P., &

Taylor, A. A. (2012). An 11-Year Radar-Based Study of Tornadic Thunderstorms over

Central Oklahoma. E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 7(8)).

Conclusion

In general, my research covered a wide range of sub-topics, all relating to natural

disasters and the impact they have on individuals and communities. There is a significant

amount of similarities in the research. Victims of natural disaster were considered at high

Kristin Remm 10

risk of developing PTSD symptoms in nearly every study. Mitigation and preparedness

were determined to be lacking in most cases and research indicates that progress in these

areas would significantly improve post-disaster behaviors, such as avoidance. As research

has already determined, behaviors like that of avoidance have the capacity of resulting in

PTSD and depression. How does an individual, as well as a community get to the point of

recovery after a natural disaster? Some researchers determine that social support and

associating positive meaning to the natural disaster are protective factors in dealing with

crisis. “Belief in one’s coping abilities in the face of stress has been significantly associated

with positive mental health.” (Tuason, M. T. G., Güss, C. D., & Carroll, L. (2012). The disaster

continues: A qualitative study on the experiences of displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors.

Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 43(4), 288). Are coping strategies really

that significant? “Following inclusion of exposure variables, individual characteristics and

social support, coping variables accounted for an additional 21% of the variance in PTSD.”

(Mason, V., Andrews, H., & Upton, D. (2010). The psychological impact of exposure to

floods. Psychology, health & medicine, 15(1), 61-73). Some of these coping mechanisms

however, are not beneficial. In fact, some, if not most, coping strategies are detrimental to

mental health in natural disaster victims. Blame/anger has been determined to be the most

detrimental to psychological health and recovery, which indicates that some coping

strategies are better than others.

As natural disasters are becoming a growing concern for our nation, awareness

concerning coping strategies and relief efforts should be addressed in disaster prone

communities. Last year alone, our nation suffered a total of 450 casualties and $13,191.71

million in damage due to natural disasters. ((2014) Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics

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for 2013 in the United States. National Weather Service. 22 July 2014. Web. 15 October

2014). Mitigation and preparedness policies need to be improved within communities.

Warning lead time improvement would assist in saving lives by providing a larger period of

time for communities and individuals to implement preparation procedures. Combined

efforts to better understand storm systems and to better understand the impact natural

disasters have on the individual can assist scientists and sociologists in creating improved

disaster preparation and reach the ideal state of recovery, which would include efficient

reconstruction of infrastructures, immediately available accommodations for those who

have been displaced, and community cohesion through programs and outreach events for

victims. There is still much to learn about storm systems and even more to learn about

psychological coping mechanisms and trauma resulting from natural disasters. Further

research on this topic would significantly decrease death rates as well as mental trauma

cases due to natural disaster and will assist in getting our nation one step closer to that

ideal state of recovery.

Further Research

In my research and in future research conducted concerning this topic, I would like

to investigate the inconsistencies in the research. Are coping strategies as positive as we

think they are? What are the most effective types of coping strategies and which coping

strategies should be avoided? Should social support and community cohesion be strongly

encouraged after the event of a natural disaster, or should the individual be allowed to cope

on their own aside from the community? Several current coping strategies and relief

policies used in areas that are commonly struck by natural disaster are in part, ineffective.

I would like to expand my research and investigate these obviously insufficient coping

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strategies and discover how to improve the community’s circumstances. What kind of

intervening variables play an effect in community cohesion when being correlated with

natural disaster frequency? Does the size and location of the devastated area influence

what kind of coping strategies should be implemented? Do certain types of natural

disasters require different coping mechanisms? The different research avenues that this

topic can take are immense, however my main goal in this research is to better the lives of

those devastated by disaster. I would like to investigate warning lead times in order to

provide a sufficient amount of time for communities to prepare for impending disasters. I

would like to study certain coping strategies and create policies that help communities

avoid destructive responses and focus more on positive recovery strategies. I want to

investigate the symptoms of mental trauma after the event and correlate these

investigations to the coping mechanisms used by victims to find out if certain coping

strategies increase or decrease the risk for psychological trauma.

Methodology

Purpose of Research

This research could help identify significant factors in the destruction of community

cohesion. Results from this research could help determine whether natural disaster

frequency has any link to community cohesion or not. If in fact it does not, this research

could still be utilized to investigate other variables that might have an effect on community

cohesion. Is it the type of disaster? Could warning lead times be increased? Many

questions and study opportunities can stem from this research. Not only are there

extended research options, but any information gained from this research could help relief

Kristin Remm 13

organizations create and implement new policies and efforts to help the preparedness,

relief, and recovery processes.

Participants and Sampling

In order to understand the relationship between natural disaster frequency and the

effect it has on community cohesion, I focused my attention on two separate regions, one of

which repeatedly experienced natural disasters and one that experienced very few natural

disasters. My overall population is the United States within the time period of the last 10

years. By implementing a multistage cluster sampling plan I utilized data from the National

Weather Service, among other resources, to narrow my population down to 10 states, the

top 5 states that indicate high natural disaster frequency and the bottom 5 states that

indicate low natural disaster frequency. Since natural disasters range from hurricanes to

extreme temperature, I selected these 10 states on the number of victims of natural

disasters in the last 10 years. After reducing my population to these 10 states, I selected

my sample. This methodology applies multistage cluster sampling, however, in order for

my research to remain focused on natural disaster frequency, I had to pre-select the states

in which I would gather my data. By selecting states that fall under the categories of high

natural disaster frequency or low natural disaster frequency, I ensure that my research will

produce results concerning disaster frequency and its relation to community cohesion.

From these 10 states I randomly selected two counties and from the 20 counties chosen I

randomly selected a community where I then requested the participation of 50 randomly

selected individuals.

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Variables

The independent variable in my study is natural disasters and the dependent

variable in my study is community cohesion. Natural disaster frequency is not the only

determinate in whether a community has high levels of unity or not. Intervening variables

include, but are not limited to, a strong and lasting infrastructure, resources put towards

education and community programs instead of recovery costs after a disaster, and a deep-

rooted history including ancestors, historical structures, and memorials. The purpose of

this study is to determine if natural disaster frequency is a cause of positive or negative

community cohesion.

Measures

My sample received ten survey questions focusing on extensive details pertaining to the

individual’s exposure to the natural disaster. Questions regarding the victim’s exposure

were structured using a ‘yes’ and ‘no’ answering system. ‘No’ was given the value of 0 and

‘yes’ was valued as 1 point. These questions were used to assess each victim’s experience

during the disaster and were then used to determine their level of exposure. The points

were totaled and each score was classified into one of these severity groups based on

responses: no exposure (0-3 point), no danger exposure (4-6 points), and danger exposure

(7-10 points). A follow up survey was given to the research subjects concerning the

positive or negative changes they may have observed in community cohesion before,

during and after the natural disaster. Only six questions were given with this survey and

were structured using a ‘yes’ (1 point) and ‘no’ (0 points) points system. The total score of

each survey was then classified into one of two categories: positive change (0-3 points) or

negative change (4-6 points). By using an ordinal level of measurement, I was able to

Kristin Remm 15

distinguish a positive or negative correlation between community cohesion and the

frequency of natural disasters.

Data Collection Plan

After gathering data that indicated the top 5 states and bottom 5 states frequently

struck by natural disaster, I selected two counties in each of these states for the purpose of

narrowing my sampling field. From these 20 counties, I randomly selected a community

from each and from there was able to randomly select 50 participants from each

community. These participants were given a quantitative survey which was then

operationalized into numerical data. This survey utilized an ordinal level of measurement,

providing me with an accurate understanding of the correlation between exposure to

natural disasters and self-perceived community cohesion response. This correlation was

then categorized back according to state – top 5 most frequently struck or bottom 5 most

frequently struck by disaster.

Research Ethics

When preparing to conduct this research, certain precautions must be taken in

order to safeguard ethically sound results. Subjects of the sampling population are still in

the late phases of recovery and remain in an emotionally, physically, and mentally fragile

state. When interacting with research subjects, empathy and compassion should be

practiced, as well as patience when working with these individuals. The responses of each

survey should remain confidential, as they are the personal experiences of each individual.

Surveys should be conducted thoroughly and methodically in order to avoid gaps and

faulty results. Questions should be read completely and in detail to avoid confusion. If

certain questions seem difficult for participants to answer, restate the question and allow

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them to talk their way to an answer. The current coping practices of each research

participant may vary, and should be respected at all times. There is no right way to handle

the devastation of a natural disaster, so providing participants’ room to express their

frustrations or allowing them space to remain reserved may be necessary.

References

Abaya, S. W., Mandere, N., & Ewald, G. (2009). Floods and health in Gambella region, Ethiopia: a qualitative assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of coping mechanisms. Global health action, 2.

Bokszczanin, A. (2008). Parental support, family conflict, and overprotectiveness:

Predicting PTSD symptom levels of adolescents 28 months after a natural disaster. Anxiety, Stress, & Coping, 21(4), 325-335.

Duda, J. How to Use and Interpret Doppler Weather Radar. Web. 18 November

2014 Glahn, B. (2005). Tornado-Warning Performance in the Past and Future-Another

Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(8), 1135-1141. Guha-Sapir, D., Vos, F., Below, R., & Ponserre, S. (2013). Annual Disaster Statistical

Review 2012: The Numbers and Trends, published by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Brussels.

Hamill, T. M., Schneider, R. S., Brooks, H. E., Forbes, G. S., Bluestein, H. B., Steinberg,

M., ... & Dole, R. M. (2005). Supplement to: The May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(4), ES17-ES20.

Kuster, C. M., Burke, P., & Taylor, A. A. (2012). An 11-Year Radar-Based Study of

Tornadic Thunderstorms over Central Oklahoma. E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 7(8).

Mason, V., Andrews, H., & Upton, D. (2010). The psychological impact of exposure to

floods. Psychology, health & medicine, 15(1), 61-73. Data, S. (1995). National climatic data center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration, ISSN, 0039-1972. Nordløkken, A., Pape, H., Wentzel-Larsen, T., & Heir, T. (2013). Changes in alcohol

consumption after a natural disaster: a study of Norwegian survivors after the 2004 Southeast Asia tsunami. BMC public health, 13(1), 58.

Kristin Remm 17

Oflaz, F., Hatipoğlu, S., & Aydin, H. (2008). Effectiveness of psychoeducation

intervention on post‐traumatic stress disorder and coping styles of earthquake survivors. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 17(5), 677-687.

Tuason, M. T. G., Güss, C. D., & Carroll, L. (2012). The disaster continues: A qualitative study on the experiences of displaced Hurricane Katrina survivors. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 43(4), 288.

Waldstreicher, J. S. (2005). Assessing the impact of collaborative research projects

on NWS warning performance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(2), 193-203.

von Peter, S. (2009). The concept of ‘mental trauma’ and its transcultural

application. Anthropology and Medicine, 16(1), 13-25. (2014) Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2013 in the United States.

National Weather Service. 22 July 2014. Web. 15 October 2014.