research on urban mileage of personal vehicles professor : kaibo wang caleb hou 2009210525 huifan xi...
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Research on urban mileage of personal vehicles
Professor : Kaibo Wang
Caleb Hou 2009210525
Huifan Xi 2009210137
Guangpu Lei 2009210135
Mathew 2009280134
Final Presentation Group 4
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Outline
• Research Goal
• Background
• Mileage Analysis
• Market Analysis
• Conclusion
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Target
Research goal:
• Which kind of micro car can be put in
the market
Research on:
• Urban mileage of personal vehicles
• Electric micro car market information
Survey among 500 randomly chosen
people in Beijing
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Background
Desires of mankind:
• Relieve traffic load of cities
• Reduce gasoline consumption
Traffic in Beijing:
• Average speed of 25 km/h
• Highest speed limit 100 km/h (5th ring)
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Data Analysis
Mileage analysis:
• Descriptive analysis on results of
the survey
• Daily mileage distribution analysis
• Relation of daily and annual
mileage
Micro car market analysis:
• Descriptive analysis on results of the
Survey
• Analysis whether like or dislike micro
cars
• Analysis on the expected price
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Mileage: Variables
Variable Name Description(unit) Notes
DM Daily Mileage(km) Continuous
TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete
VT Vehicle Type Discrete
AM Annual Mileage(km) Continuous
GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km(L) Continuous
G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary
DA Driving Age of the respondent(yr) Continuous
OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete
EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete
FI Family Income per month Discrete
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Daily Mileage Distribution
Capacity of 100 km per charge -> How many users can be satisfied
MileagePercentage of sample
Percentage of approximate distribution
30 50.000% 42.328%
50 74.691% 66.180%
70 81.070% 79.383%
100 95.062% 89.368%
• Current electric micro car: satisfies 95%
of car owners -> only charge at night
• Half of drivers -> one charge in 3 days
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Daily Mileage Analysis
一般线性模型 : DM 与 TTS, VT, G, EL, OC, FI 来源 自由度 Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F PTTS 4 12815 14427 3607 2.49 0.043VT 2 1715 1044 522 0.36 0.698GC 1 11538 14230 14230 9.81 0.002G 1 1332 1227 1227 0.85 0.358DA 1 298 80 80 0.06 0.814EL 4 4683 4300 1075 0.74 0.564OC 10 24750 23706 2371 1.63 0.094FI 4 9457 9457 2364 1.63 0.166误差 436 632463 632463 1451合计 463 699052 S = 38.0868 R-Sq = 9.53% R-Sq (调整) = 3.92%
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Daily Mileage Analysis (Cont‘d)
•GC is continuous with negative coefficient•car owners with a high GC travels less than the ones with a low GC
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Relation Of Daily & Annual Mileage
Annual Mileage ≠ Daily Mileage * 365
回归分析 : AM 与 DM
回归方程为AM = 1228 + 221 DM
自变量 系数 准误 T P常量 1227.9 355.0 3.46 0.001DM 221.230 6.128 36.10 0.000
S = 4715.85 R-Sq = 74.2% R-Sq (调整) = 74.1%
Explanation:
• People travel 221 days per year as routine
legal work days: 251 days per year
• Long distance travel of 1228 km
e.g. Holiday or business trip
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Market Analysis: Variables
Variable Name Description Notes
LORN Like the micro car OR Not Discrete
SN Seats Number preferred Discrete
S The Size of micro car Discrete
P Price for a micro car Continuous
EORN Electricity driven OR Not Discrete
CT Charge type for electric vehicle Discrete
FC11ST important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car
Discrete
FC22nd important Factors Concerned when purchasing a micro car
Discrete
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123
Category
399, 19. 6%
286, 17. 1%
1319, 63. 3%
Pi e Chart of 是否喜欢
Market Analysis: Results
234其他
Category其他
4, 0. 8%
4306, 60. 7%
389, 17. 7%
2105, 20. 8%
Pi e Chart of 座位数量
差不多更大更小
Category
更小128, 25. 4%
更大135, 26. 8%
差不多241, 47. 8%
Pi e Chart of 车辆尺寸
换电站其他自行充电
Category
自行充电316, 62. 7%
其他1, 0. 2%
换电站187, 37. 1%
Pi e Chart of 充电方式
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Further Market Analysis Variables
Variable Name Description Notes
TP Travel Purpose Discrete
TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete
VT Vehicle Type Discrete
DM Daily Mileage Continuous
GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km Continuous
URP Urban Road Proportion per day Continuous
G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary
DA Driving Age of the respondent Continuous
EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete
OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete
FI Family Income per month Discrete
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Further Analysis On LORN
Regression Analysis on LORN -> only VT influences LORN(only p-value < 0.05)
• micro car owners : 60.3%• impact car owners: 61.1%• others: 67.9%
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Market Analysis: Results (Cont‘d)
1st most important factors:
• Mileage capacity
• Safety
2nd most important factors:
•Velocity
•Power
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Expected Price Analysis价格万元
25
20
15
10
5
0
Boxpl ot of 价格万元
下四分 上四分
变量 合计数 N N* 平均值 标准差 最小值 位数 中位数 位数 最大值P 504 501 3 4.749 3.417 1.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 26.000
• Average expected price:
47,000 yuan
• 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan
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Further Market Analysis Variables
Variable Name Description Notes
TP Travel Purpose Discrete
TTS Transportation Type for Short distance Discrete
VT Vehicle Type Discrete
DM Daily Mileage Continuous
GC Gasoline Consumption per 100Km Continuous
URP Urban Road Proportion per day Continuous
G Gender of the respondent Discrete binary
DA Driving Age of the respondent Continuous
EL Education Level of the respondent Discrete
OC Occupation of the respondent Discrete
FI Family Income per month Discrete
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Further Analysis On PriceGeneral Linear Model:Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P出行目的 4 92.58 93.17 23.29 1.13 0.344短途交通 4 96.99 120.17 30.04 1.45 0.216汽车类型 2 131.89 169.22 84.61 4.09 0.017日驶里程 1 28.21 70.67 70.67 3.41 0.065单位耗油 1 37.54 58.53 58.53 2.83 0.093市区比例 1 25.16 19.59 19.59 0.95 0.331性别 1 64.29 61.76 61.76 2.98 0.085驾龄 1 22.44 20.72 20.72 1.00 0.318教育程度 4 20.08 9.74 2.43 0.12 0.976职务 10 228.83 217.33 21.73 1.05 0.400家庭月收入 4 51.15 51.15 12.79 0.62 0.650Error 438 9066.75 9066.75 20.70Total 471 9865.91 S = 4.54976 R-Sq = 8.10% R-Sq(adj) = 1.18% Term Coef SE Coef T P汽车类型1 -0.8881 0.4215 -2.11 0.0362 -0.0771 0.3082 -0.25 0.803
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Further Analysis On Price (Cont‘d)
Main effect plot:
clear positive trend as current car size goes up -> probably occurred by financial condition
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Conclusion
• 75% of citizens: routine mileage
less than 50 km
• Most people accept micro cars
• 75% accept a price < 50,000yuan