research fellow in marine planning and renewable energy ... · • lots of money is being spent on...
TRANSCRIPT
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Lucy Greenhill Research Fellow in Marine Planning and Renewable Energy Scottish Association for Marine Science Ocean Energy Forum, 4th April 2014
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1. INTRODUCTION
2. CURRENT PRIORITIES
3. OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES
4. STRATEGIC SOLUTIONS
5. SUMMARY
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We are ‘talking the talk’….
…but can we ‘walk the walk’?
Draft Plan Options for Renewable Energy in Scotland, Scottish Government, 2013
1. INTRODUCTION
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Collision Risks
Mammals • Fish • Birds
Modelling Behaviour
Encounter Rate, Evasion
Device acoustic
footprints Device & background:
Prediction, measurement
& mitigation
Habitat Modification Sediment redistribution,
Burying
Wildlife Displacement Interference with
habitat use & movements
• Information gaps on impacts well known.
• Emphasis on information gathering for project consent application (EIA).
2. CURRENT PRIORITIES
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• Numerous strategic initiatives
are looking at industry impacts (to birds, fish, mammals, etc.)
• Advances in scientific understanding e.g. models to predict collision risk
• “Will there be an impact?”
• “How big will the impact be?"
But why is decision
making at projects still complicated,
expensive and uncertain?
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/09/5811
2. CURRENT PRIORITIES (cont.)
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• Major problem is that there are no precedents – huge uncertainty.
• Results in increasingly scientifically complex modelling to make predictions in EIAs.
• Reliance on ‘expert judgement’ and subjectivity.
• This leads to challenges in consenting according to conservation policy with high requirement for certainty (e.g. Habitats Directive – “no reasonable scientific doubt.”).
3. OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES
Harbour Seal (SAMS)
Harbour Porpoise (SAMS)
European Protected Species
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Consent application / EIA – very scientific, lots of investment, new information.
Legislative Framework (e.g. Habitats Regulations) – policy instruments, limited scientific input, low investment.
3. OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES (cont.)
The Consenting Process – ‘square peg, round hole’?
Need to balance investment here…
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• What is an ‘acceptable’ level of environmental change?
• How will the environment change without development?
What is the baseline?
• How do we ensure “Site Integrity” / “Favourable Conservation Status”?
• How is uncertainty and expert judgement considered?
More effort is needed to address the difficult questions such as:
3. OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES (cont.)
Industry will ‘tick the box’ but they need to know what to aim at…
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• We need to look forward at the problems in the decision making process.
• Consenting risks need to be considered in greater detail during strategic and sectoral planning exercises (including SEA).
• National level actions into addressing problems in consenting frameworks would take pressure off individual projects.
• Look at the potential for marine planning to balance environmental objectives and renewable energy plans.
• Might not need more spending, just spending on the right questions.
4. STRATEGIC SOLUTIONS
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5. SUMMARY
• Lots of money is being spent on predicting project-specific impacts.
• This isn’t enough to make consenting more straightforward.
• What is acceptable? We need effort into defining the consenting framework to maintain investor confidence.
• Strategic approaches and marine planning will be essential and useful in managing risks from industry activities in a more cost-effective way.
Pelamis Wave Power
OpenHydro Tidal Turbine