resch egging insights in the lce 21 projects - set-nav · under the umbrella of set-nav efficient...
TRANSCRIPT
Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure
and Efficient Energy Innovation
Presented at EMP-E Conference
17-18 May 2017, Brussels
Gustav Resch, TU Wien
Ruud Egging, NTNU, Trondheim
Insights in the LCE 21 projects
Linking models - (SET-Nav)
The SET-Nav project at a glance
Linking models: why, what and issues
SET-Nav model integration platform
OUTLINE
SET-NAV OVERVIEW
Title: SET-Nav - Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation
Funding: European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (H2020)
Started: April 2016
Duration: 36 Months
Coordinator: Technische Universität Wien, Energy Economics Group (TU Wien)
Participants: 16
SET-NAV KEY P ILLARS
• Combining theory of technology innovation, diffusion & spill-overs with large-scale
numerical energy-economy-engineering models.
• Developing the methodological framework & technical infrastructure for effective
model integration to adequately capture interdependencies across levels, energy
carriers, and sectors.
Enhancing modelling capacities
Stakeholder dialogue &
dissemination
Strategic policy analysis
enhancing innovation
towards a clean, secure and efficient
energy system
SET-NAV METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK
The overall work is clustered into 10 modules that complement each other under the umbrella of SET-Nav efficient Management
SET-Plan Themes covered by
SET-Nav
Case Studies
Sce
nar
ios
of
the
glo
bal
fo
ssil
fue
l m
arke
ts
Ene
rgy
de
man
d a
nd
su
pp
ly in
b
uild
ings
an
d t
he
ro
le f
or
RES
mar
ket
inte
grat
ion
The
co
ntr
ibu
tio
n o
f in
no
vati
ve
tech
no
logi
es
to d
eca
rbo
niz
e
ind
ust
rial
pro
cess
he
at
Way
s to
a c
lean
er
and
sm
arte
r tr
ansp
ort
se
cto
r
Dec
entr
aliz
ed v
s. c
entr
aliz
ed
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
the
elec
tric
ity
sect
or.
Im
pac
t o
n t
he
tran
smis
sio
n g
rid
Pro
ject
s o
f C
om
mo
n I
nte
rest
(P
CI)
an
d g
as p
rod
uce
rs p
rici
ng
stra
tegy
Ro
le f
or
Car
bo
n C
aptu
re,
Tran
spo
rt
and
Sto
rage
in t
he
Fu
ture
En
erg
y M
ix
Dif
fusi
on
rat
e o
f re
new
able
e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n
Un
lock
ing
un
use
d f
lexi
bili
ty a
nd
sy
ne
rgy
in e
lect
ric
po
we
r an
d g
as
sup
ply
sys
tem
s
Pe
rsp
ect
ive
s fo
r n
ucl
ear
po
we
r –
a cl
ose
r lo
ok
at c
ost
dev
elo
pm
en
ts
Mac
roe
con
om
ic c
on
seq
ue
nce
s o
f su
stai
nab
le e
ne
rgy
sect
or
inn
ova
tio
n
in N
ord
ic c
ou
ntr
ies
Work package
(according to work plan, section 3)
Global perspectives
(WP4)
Demand perspective (WP5)
Infrastructure(WP6)
Supply perspective (WP7)
Macro-economic
aspects (WP8)
1
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(1) Engaging consumers through better understanding, information and market transformation
(2) Activating consumers through innovative technologies, products and services
(3) Increasing energy efficiency in buildings
(4) Increasing energy efficiency in heating & cooling
(5) Increasing energy efficiency in industry & services
(6) Modernising the European electr.
grid and establishing synergiesbetween the various energy networks
(7) Unlocking the potential of
energy storage and conversion of electricity to other energy carriers
(8) Providing the energy system with
flexibility, security and cost-effectiveness
(9) Development and demonstration
of holistic system optimisation at local/urban level
(10) Accelerating the development
of renewable electricity and
heating/cooling technologies
(11) Enabling carbon capture, CO2
utilisation & storage technologies and increas-ed efficiency of the fossil fuel-based power sector and energy intensive industry
(12) Supporting safe and efficient
operation of nuclear systems, develop-
ment of innovative reactor concepts etc.
(13) Developing sustainable biofuels,
fuel cells and hydrogen and alternative fuels
for the European transport fuel mixChal
leng
e 3:
Secu
re, c
ost
-eff
ecti
ve, c
lean
an
d co
mpe
titi
ve s
uppl
yCh
alle
nge
3: S
yste
m o
ptim
isat
ion
Chal
leng
e 2:
Dem
and
focu
s-
incr
easi
ng e
nerg
y ef
ficie
ncy
acro
ss th
e en
ergy
sys
tem
Chal
leng
e 1:
Act
ive
cons
umer
at th
e
cent
re ..
.
L INK BETWEEN
CASE STUDIES & SET-PLAN THEMES ( E X T R A C T )
Linking models:
why, what and issues
Need consistent & coherent quantitative representation of pathways across models
Models have different
Approaches (econ perspective; math approach)
Foci: strengths & weaknesses
Scopes, scales, granularities, info struct (stat-dynam; det-stoch; open-closed loop)
Exogenous (parameters) vs endogenous variables: boundary conditions
units of measurement, e.g., physical vs monetary representation;
Features give complementary strengths but pose challenges for exchanging data
Use each model's strengths by using one model’s results as another’s boundary conditions
but generally mismatch in scopes, granularities, etc.
LINKING MODELS - WHY
Macro-economic models
ASTRA – ECTRIC – FRAUNHOFER
NEMESIS – ECTRIC – SEURECO
REMES – CGE – SINTEF
System and sector models
ASTRA-Transport - FRAUNHOFER
CCTSMOD – CCTS - DIW
EMPIRE – EL - NTNU
eLOAD - EL - FRAUNHOFER
EGMM – NG - REKK
ENERTILE – EL - FRAUNHOFER
FORECAST-INDUSTRY-FRAUNHOFER
GREEN-X – EL – TUW
INVERT-EE-Lab – HEAT - TUW
GGM – NG – DIW
MultiMod – ENER - DIW
PowerACE – EL - Fraunhofer
RAMONA – NG – NTNU
TEPES – EL – COMILLAS
Risk / robustness assessment tools
NEXUS security – OPTIM – ETHZ
RCT – SIMUL – NTUA
LINKING MODELS – WHICH
TEPES
EMPIRE
Analysis
Electricity generation,
Electricity capacities
RAMONA
Grid Investments
EGMM
Gas production cost,
Gas infrastructure
Gas demand, Gas prices
NEXUS security
Gas operation, Gas infrastructure
Electricity generation, Electricity capacities
Gas operation, infrastructure,
investments, costs, emissions
Electricity generation, capacities, investments,
fuel mix, costs, emissions
System security/reliability indices electricity/gas
Detailed grid costs Grid investments Gas demand,
Gas prices
CS 7.4 Unlocking Flexibi l i ty in Power & Gas Supply Systems
CS 8.2 MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY SECTOR INNOVATION
Energy-systemmodels
Inputs
Investments
O&M costs
Energy comsumption
Energy prices
Policy variables
Other indicators
Conversion into usable
inputs for the macro-
economic models
(technology to economic
activities, price index, etc.)
ASTRA
NEMESIS
REMES
Outputs
GDP andcomponents
Employment
Sectoral indicators
Trade
Incomes
Etc.
Feedback broader economy to energy systems models – SOFT LINK
One model’s results are another’s inputs
generally mismatch in scope, granularity, info structure, units of measurem
Scope (what is covered?)
Geography
Sectors
Time horizon
Granularity (in what level of detail is it covered?)
Geographical
Technologies
Time
Information structure: deterministic vs stochastic
Or inherent differences in approach
social welfare vs game theoretic
system optimization vs general equilibrium
LINKING MODELS - CHALLENGES
SOFT – HARD – INTEGRATED (**)
Soft: manual exchange and/or adjustments
Hard: (automated) scripts
Integrated: single model
Hard vs integrated
may not get the same results(!)
example P.I. Helgesen TIMES-Norway – REMES link: last period investment
Development phase: soft
Study phase: hard
More on this on Focus Session 2, tomorrow afternoon
Data exchange templates: next
LINKING MODELS - HOW
SET-Nav model integration platform
Aim: We want to improve the current implementation of the
IIASA web databases for a more effective model integration platform
A better user experience:
More flexible output and visualization of results (tables, graphs, maps)
Workflow improvements:
Excel upload/download
Application programming interface (API) for workflow integration
(Python, R)
Direct import/export interface with GAMS (gdx format)
Functionality improvements:
Version control functionality and a detailed changelog
Current Status: Modelling platform online and operational BUT delay
in the web user interface development
SET NAV MODEL INTEGRATION PLATTFORM: AIMS & STATUS
Example – Case study 6.2: Analysis of centralised vs. decentralised electricity supply
Model integration workflow:
1. Model results export, upload to model integration platform
2. Handover between models, easy-to-use visualization, version control, comparison to reference data and other models, sanity checks, ...
3. Download of data from model integration platform, launch model run
Enertile TEPES
Optimal dispatch & generation mix, prices Transfer capacity between regions
Investment requirements and system costs
Conceptual model linkage
Actual data workflow
Model integration platform
2
1 3
SET NAV MODEL INTEGRATION PLATTFORM: MODEL INTEGRATION WORKFLOW
List of models & scenarios
History of previous versions of same model/scenario identifier
SET NAV MODEL INTEGRATION PLATTFORM: WORKFLOW OUTLINE: LIST OF MODELS/SCENARIOS
Filters
SET NAV MODEL INTEGRATION PLATTFORM: DATA ANALYSIS & VISUALISATION
Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure
and Efficient Energy Innovation
Thank you!
Visit our Website
www.set-nav.eu
Email us
Follow us
@SET_Nav #SET_Nav
Group SET-Nav
Project Coordinator
Dr. Gustav Resch Vienna University of Technology Institute of Energy Systems and Electric Drives TU Wien, EEG - Energy Economics Group Website: www.eeg.tuwien.ac.at E-mail: [email protected] Tel: +43-1-58801-370354