res2020 wp3 - working draft · 1. country specific • availability of different types of biomass...
TRANSCRIPT
Project no: EIE/06/170/SI2.442662
RES2020 Monitoring and Evaluation of the RES directives
implementation in EU27 and policy recommendations for 2020
Technology Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
Deliverable D.3.2
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The RES2020 project
RES2020 aims at analysing the present situation in the RES implementation, defining future
options for policies and measures, calculating concrete targets for the RES contribution that
can be achieved by the implementation of these options and finally examining the
implications of the achievement of these targets to the European Economy.. A number of
future options for policies and measures will be defined and they will be studied with the use
of the TIMES energy systems analysis model, in order to analyze the quantitative effects on
the RES development. TIMES offers the possibility of developing an aggregate parameter in
order to quantify the impact of a wide range of support schemes. The results will be combined
to provide recommendations of optimal mix scenarios for policy measures, in order to ensure
the achievement of the targets.
The countries modelled in the RES2020 project the codes used are: AT Austria FR France NL Netherlands
BE Belgium GR Greece NO Norway
BG Bulgaria HU Hungary PL Poland
CY Cyprus IE Ireland PT Portugal
CZ Czech Republic IS Iceland RO Romania
DE Germany IT Italy SE Sweden
DK Denmark LT Lithuania SI Slovenia
EE Estonia LU Luxembourg SK Slovakia
ES Spain LV Latvia UK United Kingdom
FI Finland MT Malta
The project aim at delivering results for the year 2020. However in order to avoid “end
effects”, the run of the model will be done until the year 2030. Therefore the base year of the
model will be 2000, as in the case of NEEDS and the “milestone years” will be 2001, 2005,
2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.
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Contents 1 Introduction 4
2 Current representation biomass and waste for energy use 6 2.1 Biomass and waste for energy use 6 2.2 Biofuels 8 2.3 Biogas 10 2.4 End-use of bio-energy 11
3 New representation biomass and waste for energy use 17 3.1 Use of biomass and waste 17 3.2 Potentials biomass and waste 17 3.3 Biofuels 25
4 Renewables for heating and cooling 31 4.1 Heating and cooling technologies in the building environment 31 4.2 Renewable district heating 34 4.3 Renewable industrial heat 36 4.4 Solar and geothermal heat 38
5 References 40
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1 Introduction The current document describes the data required and the enhancement of the Reference
Energy System for the RES2020 project, concerning biomass/biofuels for renewable energy
sources for heating and cooling. These activities are described in the project proposal WP2,
Task 1 and WP3, Task 3.
Work Package 2: Detailed description of RES framework,
Task 1. Development of a template for the data collection for:
Installed capacities
Financial & political framework
Technological potential
Issues regarding market penetration of RES in the EU-25 (and EU27).
Work Package 3: Expansion of existing tools
Task 2. RES-Heat and Biofuels Issues (coordination ECN).
This task focuses on the technology characterisation, estimation of potentials for biofuels on
the level of individual technologies, and renewable heating/cooling. Drawing on the BRED
study (Biomass strategies for greenhouse gas emission reduction) and ECN’s BIOTRANS
model, the following information will be used as basis for detailed country representation:
• Domestic bio-energy crop growing - in competition with other land uses such as
agriculture and forestry. The estimation of biomass potentials will only include crops that
can be grown in an environmentally sustainable way.
• Supply of waste wood and of by- product waste from agricultural activities
• Import of a (limited) number of bio-energy forms (e.g. HTU oil from South America)
• Harvesting and transport of the primary bio-energy
• Processing and conversion of primary bio-energy into derived products
• Direct use or further processing of derived products
• Bio-energy consuming technologies in power/heat sector, industry, residential and tertiary
and transport sectors. These technologies will cover both dedicated bio-energy based
applications as well as co-firing in fossil fuelled installations.
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• Use biomass as feedstock for petrochemical industry or as primary material for
manufacturing industries.
Data to be collected:
1. Country specific
• Availability of different types of biomass and waste for energy use. For modelling
trade of biomass among different countries, restrictions on internal trade in
biomass or derivatives, if existent, will have to be listed.
• Land use data for the other (competing) activities, a likely source here being FAO
statistics, and future projections of these activities or other known land use change.
This should be connected to the possible impact of abandoning or transforming
EU’s subsidising politics on agriculture. The project will build on the data
collected in the EU-funded REFUEL project, which ECN coordinates.
2. Technology specific parameters such as investment and O&M costs, efficiencies, annual
availability, including outlook on possible improvements, for biomass technologies for
electricity, conversion technologies for biofuel production, renewable heat technologies.
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2 Current representation biomass and waste for energy use
2.1 Biomass and waste for energy use
In the models developed for the NEEDS project several applications of biomass, waste and
residues for energy use are modelled. The table below gives an overview of the bio-energy
source and in which sectors they can be used.
Table 2.1 Biomass and waste for energy use
Type Industry Residentialand C&S
AgricultureTransport Biogas production
Biofuels production
Electricity production
Rape seed X Energy crops X X Wood & wood waste X X X X X X
Municipal waste X X X
Industrial waste X X X X
Biogas X X X X X Biofuels X X X Rape seed and other energy crops are solely used for the production of biofuels or biogas.
Other bio-energy products can be used as well for the production of secondary energy carriers
as biogas, biofuels and electricity but also for direct end-use in different sectors. For the
Residential and commercial sector the bio-energy can be used for water and space heating as
well for cooking. For the other sectors bio-energy is mainly used for heat and steam
production. A more detailed description of the use of bio-energy in the end-use sectors is
given in Section 2.4. The classification of the other bio-energy sources is based on the
Eurostat classification. These sources cover more than one specific type of bio-energy, see
Table 2.2.
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Table 2.2 Eurostat classification of biomass, waste and residues sources
Class Description Wood & wood waste (Code 5541)
Wood & wood waste covers purpose-grown energy crops (poplar, willow, etc.), a multitude of woody materials generated byindustrial processes or provided directly by forestry and agriculture (firewood, wood chips, bark, sawdust, shavings, chips, black liquor, etc.) as well as wastes such as straw, rice husks, nut shells, poultry litter, crushed grape dregs, etc.).
Municipal solidwastes (MSW)(Code 5543)
Municipal solid wastes (MSW) cover renewable and non-renewable wastes produced by households, industry, hospitals andthe tertiary sector incinerated at specific installations with energyrecovery.
Industrial wastes (Code 7100)
Industrial wastes cover wastes of industrial non-renewable origin(solid and liquids), combusted directly for the production ofelectricity and/or heat.
Biogas (Code 5542)
Biogas is a gas composed principally of methane and carbondioxide produced by anaerobic digestion of biomass. It comprises landfill gas, sewage sludge gas and other biogases such as biogas produced from the anaerobic fermentation of animal slurries andof wastes in abattoirs, breweries and agro-food industries.
Biofuels (Code 5545)
Liquid biofuels cover bioethanol (ethanol produced frombiomass), biodiesel (diesel produced from biomass or used friedoil), biomethanol, biodimethylether and bio-oil (a pyrolysis oil fuel produced from biomass).
The abbreviation of the commodities used in the models is given in the table below. Only for
biofuels a distinction is made between the different types of biofuels depending on the
production process and biomass source. The abbreviation BIOMUN and BIOSLU can be a
little confusing since they make the impression that it is a renewable source, but according to
the definition of Eurostat covers also non-renewable waste.
Table 2.3 Abbreviation of the energy sources used in the models
Class Abbreviation used in models Rape seed BIORPS Energy crops BIOCRP Wood & wood waste BIOWOO Municipal waste BIOMUN Industrial waste BIOSLU Biogas BIOGAS Biofuels BIOLIQ, BIORME (bio-diesel), BIODSL (Fischer-Trops diesel),
BIOETH, BIOMTH, BIODME Potentials of raw biomass or bio-waste sources are given on a country level and based on the
domestic production potential. For the year 2000 this is based on the Eurostat statistics. For
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the future years the potential is estimated by the country modellers. In the next sections
production potentials of biogas and biofuels are described in more detail.
Shortcomings and proposed enhancements:
- Energy crops covers different energy crops like starch, sugar, woody and grassy crops,
these types can have different costs. It would be good to split energy crops in different
categories with own cost-supply curves.
- Wood and wood waste cover also energy crops (woody and grassy crops) that
concerning land-use have to compete with other bio-energy crops like rape seed, sugar
and starch crops
- Moreover when splitting up wood and wood waste, wood waste covers also from
different sources wood processing residues, forestry residues but also agricultural
residues as straw etc. These different sources, however, can have different costs levels.
So it would be good to spilt up in different categories with own cost supply curves.
- Wood & wood residues also covers black liquor. When splitting up the wood & wood
residues potential and making a separate a potential for black liquor one, however,
should note that there is also within the model a possibility to produce black liquor as
a by-product of the paper industry. Modelling a mining source of black liquor and
defining an upper bound over the sum of mining and by-product would be necessary.
- Import and trade of biomass and pre-treated bio products limited.
-
2.2 Biofuels
Production of first and second generation biofuels Figure 2.1 gives an overview the production chains of biofuels within the NEEDS models. A
differentiation is made between the so called 1st generation conversion, based respectively on
biochemical conversion of biomass to ethanol (BIOETH) via intermediates such as sugar or
based on vegetable oil for biodiesel (BIORME), and 2nd generation bio-fuels based on
biochemical processes or thermochemical conversion using combustion, gasification and
conversion of syngas, or pyrolysis. The 2nd generation bio-fuels considered in the models are
Fischer Trops diesel (BIODSL), methanol (BIOMTH) and bio-dimethylether (BIODME).
While first generation bio-fuel technologies have reached an advanced stage and are widely
used in many countries, second generation technologies are still mainly applied in
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experimentation and demonstration projects. However, second generation bio-fuel
technologies based on lignocellulosic processing are widely regarded as the most promising
route to large scale bio-fuel production.
Energy scenarios and policy alternatives that favour second generation bio-fuels are clearly
superior in terms of land use implications. First, energy yields (and greenhouse gas balances)
of feedstocks for lignocellulosic processing are expected to be much higher than for first
generation technologies. Second, and of great importance in the land use discussion,
feedstocks for second generation biofuels would allow a wider spectrum of land to be
considered for production.
Besides real biomass sources, also black liquor a by-product from the paper industry can be
used for the production of 2nd generation biofuels.
The representation of the production of biofuels is very decent, however, when improving the
supply side as suggested in the previous section, better insight could be given in niche
markets for production of biofuels due to cost differences of the various sources.
BCRPETH01
BRPSME01.
BIO
DSL
BIO
ETH
BIO
CR
P
BIO
WO
OD
BIO
RP
S
BWOOETH01
BWOOMTH01
BWOODME01
BIO
MTH
BIO
DM
E
BWOOFTDST01
BIO
RM
E
MINBIORPS1
MINBIOCRP1
MINBIOWOO1
BBLQFTST110
BBLQDME110
IND
BLQ
BBLQMTH110
Figure 2.1 Biofuels production chains modelled in NEEDS models
Use of biofuels and modeling issues Bio-fuels can be used in the transport sector, agricultural sector or industry. For the Base-Year
(2000) the calibration of the biofuels consumption is modeled via a general bio-liquid source
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(BIOLIQ), see Figure 2.2. After 2000 one would expect that the biofuels produced within the
structure shown in Figure 2.1 would take over the role of BIOLIQ. However, BIORME,
BIODSL, BIOETH, BIOMTH is modeled only with applications in the transport sector.
BIODME can be used also in CHP’s in agricultural sector or industry. Potentials for
biofuels/bio-liquid use in the agricultural sector or industry are still modeled as MINBIOLIQ.
INDBIO00/01
AGRBDL00/01
IND
BIO
OIL
DS
T
BIO
LIQ
STRANFS00
SUPBIO00
TRABDL00
OIL
HFO
OIL
NAP
SRETURN00
AG
RB
DL
MINBIOLIQ1
OIL
RFG
SU
PBIO
TRA
BD
L
Figure 2.2 Use of general bioliquids (BIOLIQ)
2.3 Biogas
In Figure 2.3 an overview is given of the production options in the SubRES for biogas. For
the Base-Year the calibration is done via the MINBOGAS1 technology according to the use
of biogas in the Eurostat statistics. After 2000 also option of production of biogas from black
liquor, energy crops, industrial waste and bio-wood within the model are possible. These
production options are complementary to the biogas production technologies considered in
the definition of Eurostat, i.e. production of biogas from landfill gas, sewage sludge gas,
fermentation animal slurries (Table 2.2).
When defining the potential of MINBIOGAS1 the country modelers should be aware of the
fact that only the potential should be based on sources other than biogas from black liquor,
energy crops, industrial waste and bio-wood. One could think of enhancing the models with
potentials for landfill gas, sewage sludge gas, fermentation animal slurries and adding
technologies to produce biogas from these energy sources. Each of the production chains
could be a niche market for biogas. A possible source that could provide consistent data for all
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countries could be the EEA study “How much bioenergy can Europe produce without
harming the environment?” (EEA, 7-2006). However, before deciding to enhance the model
on this we should think of three questions. First do we want to increase the complexity of the
database by modelling additional modelling technologies that convert landfill gas, sewage
sludge or wet manure into biogas? Secondly, how large is this potential with respect to
potentials of other energy crops and waste sources. And finally, most important, are we
interested in specific origin of the biogas?
BCRPETH101
BBLQGAS110
BIO
CR
P
BIO
SLU
BIO
WO
O
IND
BLQ
BWOOGAS110
MINBIOGAS1
BSLUGAS101
BCRPGAS101B
IOG
AS
Figure 2.3 Biogas production
2.4 End-use of bio-energy
In the subsections below the use of bio-energy for transport, bio-energy use for residential
sector, commercial & services sector, agriculture sector and industry are described. Special
attention will be on the calibration of the bio-energy use in the base-year. Since this is in the
same for all sectors this is only described for the residential sector. The other subsections are
containing mainly overviews and some additional remarks if necessary.
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2.4.1 Transport The use of biofuels in transport has been adequately modelled in the NEEDS templates.
The fuels used are BIORME, BIODSL, BIOETH, BIOMTH, BIODME and BIOGAS.
These fuels can be used either as pure biofuels, utilized by the appropriate technologies or in a
fuel mix with fossil fuels. Biofuels can be used in all types of transport. The set up of NEEDS
in the transport sector will be used in the implementation of RES2020.
2.4.2 Residential Bio-energy use in the residential is modelled as general energy carrier RSDBIO, see Figure
2.4. This general energy carrier can consist of a mix of biogas, municipal waste, industrial
waste, wood and wood residues. If these four energy carries are really in the mix RSDBIO
and what their share will be, is defined by the actual use of biogas, municipal waste, industrial
waste, wood and wood residues in the base-year and estimations of the modellers for the
future years. This is defined by respectively the technologies RSDBIO00 and RSDBIO01 in
the Base-Year templates on worksheet RSD_Fuel.
RSDBIO01
RSDBIO00
BIO
MU
N
BIO
SLU
BIO
WO
O
BIO
GA
S
RS
DB
IO
Cooking appliance
Space heatingappliances
Water heatingappliances
Figure 2.4 Biomass use in residential sector
There are a lot of residential end-use technologies using biomass. These technologies are not
all included in Figure 2.4, but they are grouped according to their application. Major
differences between the technologies are in the type of dwelling they are used in (single or
multi apartments, rural or urban). Only for space heating there are really different
technologies considered like fire place, stove, boiler and dual-boiler.
Since there are not such detailed data available on the use of bio-energy for different end-use
technologies, the modeller has to make a kind of calibration of the base-year. To fix the use of
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biomass in 2000 for each of the technologies a break-out in different steps is made. First of
all, a break out in shares for space heating, water heating and cooking. For space heating and
water heating there is a step to split up into different types of buildings that are considered.
Finally, for space heating a split in different end-use technologies (in 2000 only stove or dual
boiler) is made. All the shares are estimated by the country modellers.
2.4.3 Commercial & Services
COMBIO01
COMBIO00
BIO
MU
N
BIO
SLU
BIO
WO
O
BIO
GA
S
CO
MBI
OCooking appliance
Space heatingappliances
Water heatingappliances
Other genericenergy use
COMBGS01
CO
MBG
S
CHP (small)
Figure 2.5 Biomass use in the commercial and services sector
The modelling and calibration of bio-energy use in base-year in the commercial and service
sector is very similar to that in the residential sector.
2.4.4 Agriculture The general bio-energy carrier AGRBIO can consist of biogas, wood and wood residues.
Besides this general carrier there also bioliquids can be used for agricultural appliances. No
distinction is made between different appliances.
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AGRBIO01
AGRBIO00
BIO
GA
S
BIO
WO
O
AGR
BIO
Generic appliances
Figure 2.6 Biomass use in the agricultural sector
AGRBDL01
AGRBDL00
BIO
LIQ
AGR
BDL
Generic appliances
Figure 2.7 Use of bio-fuels in the agricultural sector
2.4.5 Industry The general bio-energy for industry (INDBIO) can consist of biogas, wood and wood residues
and bio-liquids. INDBIO is also a rest product of the pulp industry. Appliances of INDBIO
are mainly combined heat and power and for the production of process steam and heat.
However, there is also the possibility to use bio-energy for machine drive or other industrial
processes. The decision if this actually is done for a country is up to the modeller. Besides this
general carrier there also industrial waste and municipal waste that have separate appliances.
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INDBIO01
INDBIO00
BIO
GA
S
BIO
LIQ
BIO
WO
O
IND
BIO
CHP severalsectors
Steam/process heatSeveral sectors
Machine drive
Pulp production Other processes
INDBGS01CHP (small)
IND
BG
S
Figure 2.8 Biomass use in the industry
INDSLU01
INDSLU00
BIO
SLU
IND
SLU
CHP severalsectors
Other processes
Figure 2.9 Industrial applications of industrial waste
INDMUN01
INDMUN00
BIO
MU
N
IND
MU
N
CHP severalsectors
Figure 2.10 Industrial applications of municipal waste
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Data on biomass and waste (BIOWOO, BIOGAS, BIOMUN, BIOSLU) are also available in
Eurostat on a sub-sector level, but not on different appliances (heating, steam production,
machine drive or others processes). BIOLIQ which is covering biodiesel, “biogasoline” and
other biofuels in Eurostat is not available on this sub-sector level.
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3 New representation biomass and waste for energy use
3.1 Use of biomass and waste
The following table gives an overview of the different biomass/biofuels and their respective
use in the various subsectors of the model.
Type Industry Residential
and C&S Agriculture Transport Biogas
production Biofuels production
Electricity production
Energy crops Oil crops X Starch crops X X Sugar crops X X Grassy crops X X X X X X Woody crops X X X X X X Waste and residues Forestry residues X X X X X X Agricultural residues X X X X X X Wood process. residues X X X X X X Black Liquor X X X Municipal waste X X X Industrial waste X X X X End-products Biogas X X X X X Biofuels X X X
3.2 Potentials biomass and waste
The problems that have to be addressed for the potentials are:
1. Finding a source that fits the categories and the definition of different biomass/waste
types.
2. Availability of data for potentials as well as for costs
3.2.1 Potentials and costs of bio-energy crops The data on potentials and costs originate from the European IEE project REFUEL. In the
REFUEL project three scenarios are considered. The first is a reference scenario (‘baseline’)
that describes the ‘most likely’ developments under current policy settings. Baseline
essentially reflects effects of ongoing trends in food consumption patterns on the one hand
and technological progress in food production on the other hand, and it assumes a
continuation of current self-reliance levels in Europe’s aggregate food and feed commodities.
An extended description of the assumptions driving the Baseline scenario can be fined in
(Refuel D6, IIASA). In the other two scenarios, the focus is more on difference in land area
becoming available in the future for bio-fuel feedstock production (scenario ‘high’ and
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scenario ‘low’). Agricultural production intensity, depends on agricultural and environmental
policies as well as technological progress, and may vary significantly in different scenarios. In
first instance the potentials from the Baseline scenario will be used. Potentials of the high and
low scenario can be used for the scenario analysis in WorkPackage 4 of the RES2020 project. Land availability Competing land use requirements for Europe’s food and livestock sector as well as land use
conversion from agriculture to other uses, in particular built-up and associated land areas, will
determine the future availability of land for energy crop production. Future food and feed area
requirements are the result of developments in food demand combined with changes in the
production intensity and trade of agricultural products. (Refuel D6, IIASA). Moreover, areas
of high nature conservation value are excluded from the potential biofuel crop area.
Potentials When for a region the land available for energy production is known, the potential for each
crop type can be determined. Figure 3.1 gives the potentials of the 5 energy crops types for
each EU27 country (except Malta), Norway and Switzerland. Figure 3.2 and Figure 3.3 give
potentials of respectively oil crops and woody crops in 2005 and 2030.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
Country
Pot
entia
l (PJ
dry
biom
ass)
Grassy crops Oil crops Starch crops Sugar crops Woody crops Figure 3.1 Potentials in 2010 for EU27+Norway+Switzetland-Malta
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
Country
Pot
entia
l (P
J)
2005 2030 Figure 3.2 Potentials for oil crops in 2005 and 2030
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UK
Country
Pot
entia
l (P
J)
2005 2030 Figure 3.3 Potentials for woody crops in 2005 and 2030
Modeling potentials
The total potential per region however, is much smaller than the sum of the potentials since
there is competition of available land. This obviously must be taken into account when
modeling bio-energy crops in the energy system. So, when modeling potentials, one should
adopt a constraint to avoid double counting of the available land. Assuming the potentials of
the crops are homogenously distributed over the region the following constraint should be
satisfied:
U1/P1 + U2/P2 + Ui/Pi + …. ≤ 1. (eq. 1)
Where Pi is the potential of the i-th crop and Ui is the real utilization of the i-th crop.
For example, if 30% of the woody crop potential is actually used, the homogenous
distribution of the potential implies that 30% of the land is used for woody crops and 70% is
still available for the cultivation of other energy-crop types.
However, in general potentials of crops will not be distributed homogenously within a region.
Some sub-regions will be more suitable for the growing of specific energy crops than for
others, but also the yield of a crop type will be better (and thus have a higher potential) in one
sub-region than it will be in another sub-region. So in general, the constraint (equation 1) can
not avoid that there will be double use of land within a region. The impact of double counting
is higher when the potential is less homogenously distributed, which is more likely for a large
region. When the region is small enough, the error becomes acceptable. However, splitting a
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region (for example a country) in very small sub-regions like 1 by 1 km will make your
database much too detailed for the scope of the RES2020 project. Therefore regions have to
be defined that give an acceptable balance between the level of detail of the model and
possible unwanted double use of land.
For the REFUEL project, potentials are considered on NUTS2 level. Some (smaller) countries
have just one region (Denmark), other (large) countries are split up in a lot of NUTS2 regions
(41 regions). For each NUTS2 region, the potential of a crop and average cost are given. The
bold lines in Figure 3.4 gives the cost-supply curve for oil crops within EU27 for 2005 and
2030, so each horizontal segment represents a NUTS2 region in Europe. The length of the
segment is the potential of oil crops. The average cost of the crop is given by the y-axes value
of the segment. The costs of a crop include costs for growing and harvesting, like costs for
fertilizer and farming, but also costs for truck transport of the energy crops after harvesting to
either a conversion plant or an export unit.
The division in NUTS 2 regions is too detailed for the RES2020 project. Modeling 41 regions
for a country as Germany would mean too much detail with respect to the rest of the database.
Therefore as a first step, it is chosen to aggregate the available data to a country level, (see
thin lines in Figure 3.4). Costs per country are computed as weighted average costs for each
crop. However, as can be seen in Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5 the cost curves on a country level
do not always fit well to the original cost-supply curve. Moreover, as described above,
considering potentials on a country scale, especially for large countries, can mean double
counting of the land. Therefore it could be better to look at a more disaggregated level, in
which NUTS regions with similar properties (costs) are gathered.
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1
10
100
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Remaining potential (EJbiomass)
Cos
ts (€
/GJb
iom
ass)
2005 NUTS2 level 2030 NUTS2 level 2005 Country level 2030 Country level Figure 3.4 Cost-supply curve oil crops in 2005 and 2030 on NUTS 2 level as well as on
country level
1
10
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Remaining potential (EJbiomass)
Cos
ts (€
/GJb
iom
ass)
2005 NUTS2 level 2030 NUTS2 level 2005 Country level 2030 Country level Figure 3.5 Cost-supply curve woody crops in 2005 and 2030 on NUTS 2 level as well as on
country level
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Costs and energy use
As written above, the costs of a crop include costs for growing, harvesting and cost for truck
transport of the energy crops to either a conversion plant or an export unit. In REFUEL, it is
assumed that the costs of crop growing and harvesting decline between 0,5% and 2,5% per
year depending on crop and year in each NUTS2 region. However, due to the aggregation of
the regions done for RES2020 it is possible that the costs on a country level increase in time.
This is due to the fact that we are using weighted average costs. When the potential in a
NUTS 2 region with higher costs increases faster in time than the potential in a region with
lower costs, the weighted average cost can increase. However, the effect of this will be
minimal. Costs for transport are based on transport by truck over a average distance of 100
km. The costs for transport are lower for Eastern European countries but will increase to reach
the more or less stable cost level of Western European countries.
Energy use for growing, harvesting or transportation are not taken into account. We assume
these are included in demand agriculture or transport sector. The same holds for the energy
use for production fertilizer, which is assumed that it is included in the chemical industry, and
also for the CO2 related to the energy use for growing, harvesting, transportation and fertilizer
production.
3.2.2 Potentials and costs waste and residues The source for potentials is the EEA study “How much bioenergy can Europe produce
without harming the environment?”.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 24 -
Figure 3.6 Biowaste energy potential in EU25 from EEA study (EEA report 7-2006)
The report covers several residue flows of biomass. From the EEA study, the following flows
have been taken into account: forestry residues, wood processing residues, municipal solid
waste, wet manures and black liquor. From the REFUEL study (Refuel D6, IIASA), the costs
and potentials of agricultural residues have been used. The EEA data assumes certain
sustainability interests into account, thereby limiting the potentials somewhat. Contrary to the
data on bioenergy crops, some of the data on residues have been modified within the
RES2020 project to guarantee better correspondence to national insight into the residue
potentials.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 25 -
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
AT BE BG CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR EL HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UA UKCountry
Cos
ts (€
/GJ) Agricultural residues
Forestry residuesWood processing residuesMunicipal solid wasteBlack liquor
Figure 3.7 Cost of biomass residues in 2005
3.3 Biofuels
As was already mentioned the production of biofuels was very good represented in the
NEEDS models. Most of the enhancements with in RES2020 are made on the supply side, for
instance on the differentiation of crop types and waste and residues sources to be used for the
production of biofuels. Figure 3. gives an overview of the chains for biofuels and biogas
production. The chains for production of biofuels from black liquor are not included here. The
parts of the production chain that are yellow coloured are new. The basic enhancements are:
+ Differentiation of potentials of energy crops with different costs, taking into
account land-use competition between different crops.
+ Rape oil as an intermediate product that also can be imported or traded.
+ Ethanol production from sugar as well as from starch crops.
+ Differentiation of potentials of energy crops with different costs.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 26 -
Ethanol prod.
Harvestingoil crops
Harvestingstarch crops
Harvestingsugar crops
Harvestinggrassy crops
Biodiesel prod.
FT-D
iese
l
Etha
nol
Star
ch c
rops
Suga
r cro
ps
Woo
d &
gra
ss
Rap
e oi
l
Harvestingwoody crops
Ethanol prod.
Methanol prod.
DME prod.
Met
hano
l
DM
E
Agric. residues
FT-diesel prod.
Forest residues
Wood waste
Oil
crop
sPressingOil crops
Bio
Die
sel
Ethanol prod.
Biog
as
Biogas prod.
Biogas prod.
Figure 3.8 New representation biomass, waste and residues for biofuels and biogas
production RES2020
Although no additional production technologies are implemented, all the technology data are
updated with data from the REFUEL project (Refuel D10b, ECN). These new technology data
are included in the SubRES.
Investment costs
Investment costs in the REFUEL project are endogenously determined within the
BIOTRANS model. Since for RES2020 the models will not use endogenous technological
learning we have to specify cost paths exogenously. Table 3.2 gives four possible cost
reduction curves depending on the level of ambition of the share of biofuels in total transport
fuel mix, and how fast (early) or slow (late), the second generation biofuels will be available
(see Table 3.1).
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 27 -
Table 3.1 Definition of low and high targets and shares of different biofuels in case of early/fast or late/slower adoption of second generation biofuels 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Low target 1.40% 4.00% 7.50% 10.00% 12.50% 15.00% High target 2.00% 5.75% 9.90% 14.00% 19.50% 25.00% Late 2nd generation Biodiesel 80.0% 57.5% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Bioethanol 1st 20.0% 37.5% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Bioethanol 2nd 2.5% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 2.5% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Early 2nd generation Biodiesel 80.0% 55.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 12.5% Bioethanol 1st 20.0% 35.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 12.5% Bioethanol 2nd 5.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 37.5% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 5.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 37.5%
Table 3.2 Cost reduction of biofuels production technologies under four different scenarios 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Low / Late 2nd generation
Biodiesel 2% 7% 12% 16% 18% Bioethanol 1st 8% 17% 27% 36% 43% Bioethanol 2nd 7% 20% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 8% 19%
Low / Early 2nd generation Biodiesel 2% 7% 11% 14% 15% Bioethanol 1st 8% 16% 24% 31% 36% Bioethanol 2nd 4% 20% 32% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 4% 19% 28%
High / Late 2nd generation Biodiesel 4% 10% 15% 18% 19% Bioethanol 1st 10% 20% 33% 44% 50% Bioethanol 2nd 14% 28% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 14% 25%
High / Early 2nd generation Biodiesel 4% 10% 14% 17% 18% Bioethanol 1st 9% 19% 30% 38% 43% Bioethanol 2nd 9% 27% 31% FT diesel /DME / Methanol 9% 24% 35%
- methanol is assumed to be the same as DME production For the SubRES technology it is assumed that the cost developments will follow the Low
target early second generation scenario.
Efficiency improvement
Efficiencies of conversion technologies are estimated as average values 2005-2030.
By-products
The by-products of biofuels production in REFUEL differ from those in the NEEDS models.
In the NEEDS models BIOMUN was a by-product of biodiesel production from rape seed and
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 28 -
ethanol production from wood products. Biogas was modelled as a by-product from
bioethanol production from first generation energy crops. DME and FT-diesel production
from wood had as a by-product high temperature heat.
Using the REFUEL data, all second generation biofuels production technologies will have
electricity as a by-product. By-products from oil extraction from rape seed, bio-diesel
production, ethanol production from sugar crops and ethanol production from starch crops,
are respectively oil pulp glycerol, stillage and beet pulp, see Figure 3.. Using these by-
products as fodder is at this moment more economic than using it for other energy uses like
electricity production. Prices of by-products are based on current market prices, taking into
account a downward price effect because of increased supply of the by-products (figure based
on the Biofuels Progress Report from Jan. 2007 by the European Commission). Alternatively,
they are taken from the ConCaWe (JRC) study which also takes such effects into account.
BCRPETH101
BRPSME101
BIO
DS
T
BIO
ETH
BIO
CR
P1
BIO
CR
P2
BIO
WO
O
BIO
RPO
IL
BWOOETH110
BWOOMTH110
BWOODME110
BIO
MTH
BIO
DM
E
BWOOFTDST110
BCRPETH201
BIO
RM
E
BIO
PLO
IL
BIO
STI
L
BIO
PLB
EET
ELC
LOW
Figure 3.9 Biofuels production technologies
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 29 -
3.3.1 Production and capacities The capacity levels of the first generation bio-diesel and bio-ethanol plants and their actual
production in 2001 and 2005 have been collected.
- For 2005 data from Biofuels Barometer (EurObserver 57, Biofuels Barometer - May
2006) will be used.
- For future years no constraints on capacity or production will be included. However, if
country modellers know about future plans to built production plants, these will be
included in the country templates.
Table 3.3 Biodiesel production in European Union in 2004 and 2005 (estimates in Tons)
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 30 -
Table 3.4 Ethanol production in European Union in 2004 and 2005 (in Tons)
3.3.2 Other constraints concerning biofuels
Specific constraints or targets like:
• Blend share: how much biofuels can be mixed in conventional fuels
• Share of pure bio-diesel, methanol, ethanol cars
Will be implemented by the country modellers on a member state level.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 31 -
4 Renewables for heating and cooling This section describes the representation of renewable heating and cooling in the TIMES-
NEEDS models. First of all an overview of the renewable heating and cooling technologies in
the residential sector and the commercial and services sector in the models is given. In the
second subsections the possibilities for renewable heat production at a more central level in
public power/heat plant. The third subsection lists the available renewable industrial heat
production.
4.1 Heating and cooling technologies in the building environment
Table 4.1 lists the technologies for space heating, space cooling and water heating or
combinations, modelled for the commercial and service sector, that use renewable sources or
in case of district heating exchangers technologies that could use heat from renewable
sources. A distinction is made between appliances in small and large buildings. In Table 4.2
technologies for space heating, space cooling and water heating or combinations in
households using renewable sources are given. A distinction is made here between rural
dwellings, urban dwellings and apartments. Moreover, there is a distinction between existing
and new dwellings in each category.
Table 4.1 Commercial renewable heating technologies in NEEDS models
Most important Large Small
Combined space / water heating Combined Heat exchanger (Geothermal) X CHLEGEO101 CHSEGEO101 Combined Heat Exchanger (District Heat) HTH what is the fuel? X CHLEHTH101 CHSEHTH101 Combined Heat Exchanger (District Heat) LTH what is the fuel? X CHLELTH101 CHSELTH101 Combined solar collector with electric backup - water heating system X CHLESOL601 CHSESOL601 Combined solar assisted heat pump installation (fossil fuel backup) X Wood-pellets boiler - water system X CHLEWOO101 CHSEWOO101 Combined LPG heat pump (ambient heat) CHLELPG401 CHSELPG401 Combined Solar collector with diesel backup CHLESOL101 CHSESOL101 Combined Solar collector with gas backup X CHLESOL201 CHSESOL201 Combined heating and cooling Ground heat pump with electric boiler (geothermal heat) X CHLEELC101 CHSEELC101 Air heat pump with electric boiler (ambient heat) X CHLEELC201 CHSEELC201 Solar assisted cooling Water heating Biomass boiler water heating(is mostly used with space heating, not water only)
CWLEBIO101 CWSEBIO101
Electric heat pump water heating (ambient heat)bestaat ook in niet-RE variant
X CWLEELC201 CWSEELC201
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 32 -
Most important Large Small
Geo Heat Exchanger water heater(is mostly used with space heating, not water only)
CWLEGEO101 CWSEGEO101
District heat exchange water heater HTH (is mostly used with space heating, not water only)
CWLEHTH101 CWSEHTH101
District heat exchange water heater LTH(is mostly used with space heating, not water only)
CWLELTH101 CWSELTH101
Solar collector with diesel backup only water heating CWLESOL101 CWSESOL101 Solar collector with gas backup only water heating X CWLESOL201 CWSESOL201 Solar collector with gas backup only water heatingdifference with previous?
x CWLESOL301 CWSESOL301
Remarks:
• Technology data for large and small appliances in commercial sector are the same except
the share of space heating and water heating
• Technology data for existing and new dwellings are the same.
• Only some of the residential technologies have different data for multi-apartments and
rural or urban dwellings. Most technologies, however, are the same for different types of
dwellings.
Potentials for biomass, solar, geothermal, ambient heat are given on a country level. The
biomass potential covers all biomass for energy-use, i.e. there can be competition between
biomass for biofuels, electricity and heating and cooling. Solar and geothermal heat can be
used in buildings and also be used in the agricultural and industrial sector and for electricity
production. A complete overview of the use of solar and geothermal energy is given in section
4.4. Ambient heat is solely used for the residential and commercial sector and each sector had
its own potential of ambient heat.
.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 33 -
Table 4.2 Residential renewable heating technologies in NEEDS models
Multiappartment Existing
Multiappartment New Rural Existing Rural New Urban Existing Urban New
Space heating only wood Fireplace RHREBIO101 RHRNBIO101 RHUEBIO101 RHUNBIO101 biomass Stove RHREBIO301 RHRNBIO301 RHUEBIO301 RHUNBIO301 Combined space / water heating Combined Biomass Boiler RHMEBIO401 RHMNBIO401 RHREBIO401 RHRNBIO401 RHUEBIO401 RHUNBIO401 Combined Biodiesel Boiler RHMEBIOL101 RHMNBIOL101 RHREBIOL101 RHRNBIOL101 RHUEBIOL101 RHUNBIOL101 Combined Heat Exchanger (District Heat) LTH RHMEHET101 RHMNHET101 RHREHET101 RHRNHET101 RHUEHET101 RHUNHET101 Combined Solar Collector with diesel backup RHMESOL101 RHMNSOL101 RHRESOL101 RHRNSOL101 RHUESOL101 RHUNSOL101 Combined Solar Collector with gas backup RHMESOL201 RHMNSOL201 RHRESOL201 RHRNSOL201 RHUESOL201 RHUNSOL201 Combined Solar Collector with elc backup RHMESOL301 RHMNSOL301 RHRESOL301 RHRNSOL301 RHUESOL301 RHUNSOL301 Combined heat and cooling Combined Electric Heat Pump RHMEELC201 RHMNELC201 RHREELC201 RHRNELC201 RHUEELC201 RHUNELC201 Combined Natural gas Heat Pump RHMEGAS901 RHMNGAS901 RHREGAS901 RHRNGAS901 RHUEGAS901 RHUNGAS901 Combined Electric ground Heat Pump RHMEGEO101 RHMNGEO101 RHREGEO101 RHRNGEO101 RHUEGEO101 RHUNGEO101 Combined LPG Heat Pump RHMELPG601 RHMNLPG601 RHRELPG601 RHRNLPG601 RHUELPG601 RHUNLPG601 Solar assisted cooling Water heating only Biomass Boiler Water Heating RWMEBIO101 RWMNBIO101 RWREBIO101 RWRNBIO101 RWUEBIO101 RWUNBIO101 Electric Heat Pump Water Heating RWMEELC201 RWMNELC201 RWREELC201 RWRNELC201 RWUEELC201 RWUNELC201 Geo Heat Exchanger Water Heater RWMEGEO101 RWMNGEO101 RWREGEO101 RWRNGEO101 RWUEGEO101 RWUNGEO101 District Heat Exchange Water Heater HTH RWMEHET101 RWMNHET101 RWREHET101 RWRNHET101 RWUEHET101 RWUNHET101 Solar Collector with diesel backup only WaterHeating RWMESOL101 RWMNSOL101 RWRESOL101 RWRNSOL101 RWUESOL101 RWUNSOL101 Solar Collector with gas backup only WaterHeating RWMESOL201 RWMNSOL201 RWRESOL201 RWRNSOL201 RWUESOL201 RWUNSOL201 Solar Collector with Electric backup only WaterHeating RWMESOL301 RWMNSOL301 RWRESOL301 RWRNSOL301 RWUESOL301 RWUNSOL301 Cooling only Centralized solar Air Conditioner RCMESOL110 RCMNSOL110
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 34 -
4.2 Renewable district heating
Low and high temperature heat for district heating can be either produced in heating or
coupled heat and power plants. Low temperature heat will only be used in residential and
commercial sector. Low temperature heat for commercial sector can also be produced in
commercial CHP Public high temperature heat can be used in buildings and also in the
agricultural sector and even in industry.
The three figures below give an overview of respectively low and high temperature heat
production from renewable resources that are currently available in the TIMES –NEEDS
models.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 35 -
COMLTH01
Low
tem
pera
ture
heat
Com
mer
cial
LTH
Res
iden
tial H
TH
Res
iden
tial L
TH
RSDHTH01
RSDLTH01
CHP: Steam Turbinecondensing (wood)
CHP: Fuel Cell MCFC
CHP: Steam Turbinecondensing (straw)
CHP: IGCC
CHP: Internal Combustion (large)
CHP: Fuel Cell SOFC
CHP: Internal Combustion (small)
Bio
gas
Woo
d
Figure 4.1 Renewable technologies for low temperature heat production
Com
mer
cial
LTH
CHP: internal combustion (small)
CHP: Fuel Cell SOFC
CHP: internal combustion (large)
CHP: Fuel Cell MCFC
COMLTH01
Bio
gas
Low
tem
pera
ture
heat
Figure 4.2 Renewable low temperature heat production for commercial sector
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 36 -
AGRHTH01
Hig
h te
mpe
ratu
rehe
at
AG
RH
TH
CO
MH
TH
COMHTH01
RSDHTH01
RS
DH
TH
RS
DLT
H
16 in
dust
rial H
TH
RSDLTH01
INDHTH01
CHP: Steam Turbinecondensing
Indu
stria
l was
te-
slud
ge
Mun
icip
al w
aste
CHP: Steam Turbinecondensing
Figure 4.3 Renewable technologies for high temperature heat production
4.3 Renewable industrial heat
Industrial low and high temperature heat is produced by CHP plants, see Figure 4.4 and
Figure 4.5. These figures only show technologies using renewable sources.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 37 -
IND
HTH
INM
HTH
IOIH
TH
ICM
HTH
CHP: IGCC
CHP: Steam Turbine condensing
CHP: Steam Turbine condensing
CHP: Steam Turbine condensing
CHP: Steam Turbine condensing
Bio
mas
s
Mun
icip
al w
aste
Indu
stria
l was
tesl
udge
Heat to industry
Hig
h te
mpe
ratu
rehe
at
IAM
HTH
IGFH
THIG
HH
TH
ILM
HTH
INFH
TH
IALH
TH
ICLH
TH
ICU
HTH
IISH
TH
IPPH
TH
ICH
HTH
Figure 4.4 Renewable high temperature heat production in industry
IND
LTH
IOIL
TH
CHP: internal combustion
CHP: internal combustion
Bio
gas
INFL
TH
IPP
LTH
ICH
LTH
Figure 4.5 Renewable low temperature heat production in industry
Besides LTH and HTH production by CHP plants some industries also have specific heat
production plants that produce only process heat as ICHPRC, INMPRC, IOIPRC, INFPRC,
IPPPRC. The only renewable source used for this is biomass. For these industries except IPP
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 38 -
there are also separate productions technologies that use biomass to produce steam (ICHSTM,
INMSTM, IOISTM, INFSTM).
ICH
PRC
IOIP
RC
ICHPRCBIO01
INFPRCBIO01
IND
BIO
INM
PRC
IPP
PRC
INFP
RC
INMPRCBIO01
IOIPRCBIO01
IPPHTHBIO01
ICH
STM
IOIS
TM
ICHSTMBIO01
INFSTMBIO01
IND
BIO
INM
STM
INFS
TM
INMSTMBIO01
IOISTMBIO01
a) process heat production b) steam production
Figure 4.6 Additional process heat production and steam production in industry.
4.4 Solar and geothermal heat
The use of solar and geothermal heat is presented in the following figures. This set-up has
been used in the NEEDS templates and will be used in the RES2020 templates as well.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 39 -
AGRSOL00/01MINRENSOL1
REN
SO
L
AGR
SOL
CO
MSO
LEL
CSO
LIN
DS
OL
RSD
SO
L
ELCSOL00/01
COMSOL00/01
INDSOL00/01
RSDSOL00/01
AGR000
AG
R
EUATSOL00
ELC
IND
/IND
ELC
EUPVSOL101
EUPVSOL201
EUTHSOL101
ELC
LOW
ELC
ME
D
18 commercialdemand techn.
38 residentialdemand techn.
Figure 4.7 Use of solar energy in different sectors
AGRGEO00/01MINRENGEO1
RE
NG
EO
AG
RG
EO
CO
MG
EOE
LCG
EO
IND
GE
OR
SD
GEO
ELCGEO00/01
COMGEO00/01
INDGEO00/01
RSDGEO00/01
AGR000
AG
R
EAUTGEO00
ELC
IND
/IND
ELC
EUGEOHDR110
ELC
LOW
commercialdemand techn.
residentialdemand techn.
CHPIOIGEO00
IOIH
TH
Figure 4.8 Use of geothermal heat in different sectors.
RES2020 – Characterisation for Biofuels and Renewable Heating/Cooling
- 40 -
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