res auctions simulation - webinar _2015_05!14!2430
DESCRIPTION
ES Auctions Simulation - Webinar _2015_05!14!2430TRANSCRIPT
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Advisory
RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
15 May 2015
Confidential
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PwC
15 May 2015
User guide
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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PwC
15 May 2015
Webinar
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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Approximately 1 hour
Questionnaire during webinar
Please ask questions
Contact us if you have more questions! [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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PwC
15 May 2015
Hosts
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Grzegorz Skaryski Vicepresident of the board
Jan Biernacki Senior Associate, Energy Group
Pawe Grzejszczak Partner
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Agenda
Page
1
2
3
4
Introduction..
The RES act and the auctions..
The results of the auctions...
Your questions.
5.
9.
12.
26.
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PwC
15 May 2015
Introduction
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Section 1
RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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PwC
15 May 2015
The purpose of the Webinar is to summarize the results of simulation of the RES auctions
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 1 Introduction
Stage 1
Submitting the projects
Stage 2
Submitting the bids
Stage 3
Receiving the results
Stage 4
PWEA Seminar
19 May Save the date! 28.04 7.05 8.05 13.05 15.05
Today Auction results visible in
Zieloneaukcje web page Budgets and volumes declared Simplified calculator shared
Registrations only via credit card Voluntary survey held
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PwC
15 May 2015
Our event has gathered huge interest on the market
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 1 Introduction
over 3700 MW total capacity of submitted projects
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Wind
Biomass
3550 MWe
123 MWe
PV 33 MWe
Hydro 4 MWe
Biogas 4 MWe
Biodegradable waste 2 MWe
Our event attracted.
90
139 Number of submitted projects
Number of users
Number of submitted technologies
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PwC
15 May 2015
Our event attracted both Polish and international attendants
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 1 Introduction
n = 55
of which 44% were RES projects developers
24% were vertically integrated energy companies
and 27% were individual investors
45% estimates that number of executed RES projects will decline in the coming years
31% forecasts that the number will not change
and 22% anticipates that the number will increase
n = 55
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PwC
15 May 2015
The RES act and the auctions
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Section 2
RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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PwC
15 May 2015
How close is the simulation to the real auctions?
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 2 The RES act and the auctions
Auctions components
Prequalification
Submitting capacity
Submitting volume and price
Volume and budget
Algorithm
ZieloneAukcje.pl
Real auctions
The same as declared in the
project by the Ministry. We declared it in different order
(after submitting capacity)
? ? We used guidelines from RES act yet the rules of the auction have not been determined yet
The reference prices were based on draft of RES act from 2012 where
correction factors for different technologies were considered
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PwC
15 May 2015
Controversies over auctions
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 2 The RES act and the auctions
1 3 4 2 Volume
allotment for < 4000
MWh/MW units
Impact on competition of cap
of volume for < 4000 MWh/MW
technologies
Pre qualification procedures
Lack of binding pre-qualification requirements
Regulations in regards to
projects executed in
phases
Market concerns in respect of support
scheme for projects executed in phases
Potential importance
devaluation of small scale developers
According to results of Zielone Aukcje
survey, market participants express concern in respect
of potential negative effects on small
scale RES developers
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PwC
15 May 2015
The results of the auctions
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Section 3
RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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PwC
15 May 2015
Question to you..
What's the closing bid (cut-off price) for projects: planned, < 4000 MWh/MW, > 1 MWe ?
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
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PwC
15 May 2015
Before we had a chance to see the results we have came out with certain hypothesis
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
Will it occur?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Price level cut-off for < 4000 MWh/MW, > 1 MW projects (new)
360 PLN/MWh
340 PLN/MWh
340 PLN/MWh
Bids of which technology will be closest to reference prices?
All but wind
All but wind
All but wind
Which restriction will turn out to be more severe? Volume or budget?
Budget
Budget
Budget
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PwC
15 May 2015
Volume submitted to RES simulation auction demonstrates a significant preference of market participants for wind energy
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
100% 100%
378%
4%
100% 100%
589%
103% 100% 100%
2% 4%
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PwC
15 May 2015
The volumes among baskets were.
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
2,3 TWh
2,3 TWh*
23,2 TWh
14,7 TWh*
7,7 TWh
4,9 TWh*
Existing installations Planned installations
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PwC
15 May 2015
How much capacity is that?
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
Existing installations Planned installations
Large scale installations (>1MW) Small scale installations (
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PwC
15 May 2015
260
410
240 301
431
350
383 410
323
522
743
500
The bids ranged from.
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
Existing installations Planned installations
Large scale installations (>1MW) Small scale installations (
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PwC
15 May 2015
Price offered by existing projects with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh was noticeably higher as those offered by its planned equivalents
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
0,4 0,7
0,4 - - - 0,2
5,3
1,7
260 280
- volume qualified through auction process
Submitted electricity volume in TWh spread out by offered price in PLN/MWh
383 PLN/MWh
Cut-off
price
Existing installations with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh
- volume unqualified through auction process
280 300 300 320 320 340 340 360 360 380 380 400 400 420
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PwC
15 May 2015
Only 17% of submitted volume for planned large scale projects with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh/year has qualified
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
8,8 9,4 1,7 - 2,9 0,3 7,3
34,5 27,6 26,9
17,0
240 260 260 280 280 300 300 320 320 340 340 360 360 380 380 400 400 420 more than 420
- volume qualified through auction process - volume unqualified through auction process
Submitted electricity volume in TWh spread out by offered price in PLN/MWh
323 PLN/MWh
Cut-off
price
Planned large scale installations with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh
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PwC
15 May 2015
A significant price variation for planned large scale RES installation with no capacity restrictions may result from a relatively small sample for this category
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
3,5 - - - 0,9 3,4 - - 2,3 0,5 - 0,3 0,6
3,6
300
320
320
340
340
360
- volume qualified through auction process
Submitted electricity volume in TWh spread out by offered price in PLN/MWh
522 PLN/MWh
Cut-off
price
Planned large scale installations with no capacity restrictions
360
380
380
400
400
420
420
440
440
460
460
480
480
500
500
520
520
540
540
560
- volume unqualified through auction process
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PwC
15 May 2015
Vast majority of registered projects with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh/year were solar power projects
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
53,8 26,1 14,3 40,8 12,8 14,1 23,9
400 450
- volume qualified through auction process - volume unqualified through auction process
Planned small scale installations with capacity utilization below 4,000 MW/MWh
Submitted electricity volume in GWh spread out by offered price in PLN/MWh
743 PLN/MWh
Cut-off
price
450 500 500 550 550 600 600 650 650 700 700 750
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PwC
15 May 2015
Planned small scale projects featured only various biogas projects with combined capacity of 1,7 MW
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
58,5 120,0 - 16,2
350 400
- volume qualified through auction process - volume unqualified through auction process
Planned small scale installations with no capacity restrictions
Submitted electricity volume in GWh spread out by offered price in PLN/MWh
500 PLN/MWh
Cut-off
price
400 450 450 500 500 550
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PwC
15 May 2015
Who was the closest one in terms of correct hypothesis?
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
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2
3
4
Category Hypothesis
Outcome
Assesment
Cut-off price for planned 1MW
Underbidding
Volume and budget restrictions
Technology breakdown
360 PLN/MWh 340 PLN/MWh 340 PLN/MWh
323 PLN/MWh
Budget Budget
All but wind
? Yes Possible
/ Price submitted for technologies other
than wind farms were on average 14% below
reference price
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PwC
15 May 2015
You will find more on 19 May PWEA Seminar
What would happen if volume was reallocated after auctions?
Is there an underbidding risk?
How to prequalify to the auction?
What strategy to use during the bidding?
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RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
Section 3 The results of the auctions
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PwC
15 May 2015
Your questions
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Section 4
RES auctions simulation - Webinar PWEA, PwC, DZP
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Thank you