representing influence activities through system dynamics
DESCRIPTION
Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics. Lawrence Dack [email protected]. Jim Sanderson Nicky Schranz Jess Allen Patrick Beautement Lawrence Dack. Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics. Influence Operations System Dynamics - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009
CLASSIFICATION
1
CLASSIFICATION
Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics
Lawrence Dack
Jim SandersonNicky SchranzJess AllenPatrick BeautementLawrence Dack
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
2
Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics
Influence Operations
System Dynamics
SD Models of Influence
Observations
Questions
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
3
Influence Operations
• Gen. Stanley McChrystal: “... accomplish three tasks
simultaneously:– Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition.
– Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition.
– Retain supportive individuals."
• Gen David Petraeus: COMSAF COIN guidance 2nd Aug 2010
24 points, including:– Secure and serve the population
– Build relationships
– Be a good guest
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
4
Afganistan Stability / COIN Dynamics
"When we understand that slide,
we'll have won the war"
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
5
The Case for System Dynamics
potentialrecruits
actualrecruitsenlistments
chance ofpersuasion
Salary package Role attractiveness15000 4
Need to understand the big picture and dynamic behaviour
Levers for change • Constants, parameters, numbers
• Regulating negative feedback loops• Driving positive feedback loops• Material flows• Information flows• The rules of the system• The distribution of power over the rules• The goals of the system
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
6
Representing Influence (1) – Transition Ops
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
7
Representing Influence (2) – The Complex Operating Environment
SoDs
ActorsSupport
tasksMissionTasks
DemandReserves
RegionsCoalitionsActivities
Conquest
Plans
Supporters
Resource Generation
Resources
Groups
Planning
Attitudes
QoLPerception
Decisions
Behaviour
Actions
Memory
Influence
PermissivenessConsequences
Events
Events
Resources
Interventions
Effectiveness
SoIs
Approval
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
8
Critique• COIN Model:
– Strengths: Comprehensive scope
– Weaknesses: Accessibility, V&V
– Threats: Misunderstanding of purpose
• TM:– Strengths: Succinct, explainable, instantaneous results
– Weaknesses: Structural assumptions hardwired into model, Homogenous
actors, packaging and interpretation of results
– Threats: Changes to the context
• HCCM:– Strengths: Generic, Highly configurable, Can craft bespoke displays
– Weaknesses: Hard thought required to create specific model from general case,
‘Iceberg’ logic, More expertise required to use
– Threats: Data availability
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
9
Concluding Remarks• Influence Operations require:
– A broad understanding of complex inter-relationships
– Sense-making which goes beyond simple cause-and-effect
– Decision-making which balances short and long-term goals, and handles
uncertain or incomplete information
• System Dynamics models offer:– Clear representation of relationships within the big picture
– Evaluation of the impact of feedback and parameter changes
– Responsive modelling timescales
• Modelling challenges along the way:– Building: Goldilocks options between the specific and the generic, between
fidelity, scope and comprehensibility
– Running: configuring incomplete knowledge
– Exploitation – understanding the significance of what is reported and the
appropriate weight to place on it
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009 Suitable for Public Release
UNCLASSIFIED
10
CLASSIFICATION
CLASSIFICATION
© Crown Copyright 2009
CLASSIFICATION
11
CLASSIFICATION
Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics
Lawrence Dack
Lead Modeller
Jim Sanderson – Theme leadNicky Schranz - ArchitectJess Allen – Human FactorsPatrick Beautement – Complexity ‘guru’Lawrence Dack - Modeller