Repowering Earth

Smart, Secure and Sustainable. . .

“. . .The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be”

Terry Boston

Retired PJM President & CEO

IEEE PES

May 22, 2019

2

(PHEVs Someday)

Greatest Engineering Achievements

of the 20th Century

10. Air Conditioning/

Refrigeration

9. Telephone

8. Computers

7. Agricultural Mechanization

6. Radio and Television

Source: National Academy of Engineering

1. The Grid/ Electrification

5. Electronics

4. Water Supply and

Distribution

3. Airplane

2. Automobile

Microgrids … New York City After

Superstorm Sandy

4

My First TVA Control System

Source: TVA

c. 1972

Replaced by a nuclear-shielded underground bunker-1974

5

PJM: 2016

My Last Control Room Was also a Under Ground Bunker

6

2

The future is not ours to see. . .

1986 NSF

Internet 56k

1980’s Reliability. . .

. . .Lightning & squirrels

7

The Internet of Things (IOT) c. 2019

8

Cyber and Physical Security

It’s not Easy to Protect Substations

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Coal Nuclear CombinedCycle Gas-

Fired

CombinedCycle Gas-

Fired

Wind Solar

$/MWh

The cost to build and operate new gas, wind and solar

power is challenging existing generation resources

.

1) Source: Source: Lazard. Assumes $3/MMBtu natural gas. Midwest wind and solar resource

Operating costs of existing plants

(2020)

Costs to build and operate new plants

(including incentives for wind/solar, 2020)

Falling wind and solar costs, and lower gas prices have

been accelerating the retirement of coal and nuclear plants

$55

$35$50

$33 $45

$12

$56

$30$28

$21

$39

$29

10

PJM All-in Wholesale Cost

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Energy Capacity Transmission & Other

Competition Works --

Wholesale

Prices Down

by 37%$53.24

2008 2017

$84.66

$/M

Wh

Source: PJM State of the Markets Report

11

Wind Generation in PJM

If you like wind …

… You have to

love Storage

12

Hourly Average Wind Capacity Factor 28.6%

13

The Infamous “California Duck Curve”

”If you can’t store

you’ll have no electricity

after 4”

14

Storage –The Silver Bullet

Boston’s Bias:

I like storage

Pumped Hydro Compressed Air Flywheels

Stationary BatteryMobile BatteriesWater Heaters

15

Demand Growth from PHEVs & EVs

35.3 % of

U.S. energy use is oil

8.8 of 10 Americans

commute using cars

Wind, solar & shale gas

can power PHEVs

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

De

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Nissan GM Toyota Ford BMW

Tesla OTHER PHEV TOTAL BEV TOTAL

Demand for EVs & PHEVs

17

How Fast Can we Electrify Transportation?

From one horse carriage to 22 horsepower model T in 13 years

18

Henry Ford4-cylinder 2.9 liter engine: 20-22 hp

The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed transportation

by making it “a-FORD-able”

Source:

Secretary Chu

19

NextEra(DeKalb, IL)

Wind + Storage

217.5 MW, 145 turbines

+

20 MW, 8 MWh

Advanced Storage in PJM

Grid connected 296 MWBehind-the-meter 15 MW

Fly Wheels 20 MW

Grid-Scale Energy Storage --- 296+ MW in PJM

PJM Average Wind

Capacity Factor 28.6%

CO2

Elephant in the Living Roomwww.pjm.com

21

Alberta Canada’s Goal Zero Coal Emissions

21

Existing 2030

Total installed capacity: 16288 MW Total installed capacity: 24222 MW

Cogeneration, 5548 MW

Natural Gas, 10848 MW

Renewables, 7357 MW

Other, 469 MW

Coal-fired, 6289 MW

Cogeneration, 4502 MW

Natural Gas, 2712 MW

Renewables, 2357 MW

Other, 428 MW

AESO 2016 LTO Reference Case

Avoid gas-

fired plants;

fuel prices

high, volatile

Nuclear

power poised

for a

renaissance

Digital tech

driving more

powerful

processors &

hard drives

Boring. Just

run it safely

and reliably

CCS grabs

global focus

and

investment

Not in long-

range plans

or capital

budgets2000

Gas is king Nuclear

renaissance

stalled in US

Digital tech

focusing on

batteries and

energy

Distribution

system

platform is the

key enabler

CCS research

funding and

interest on

the decline

Lion’s share

of new plants;

front and

center in

planning

2019

Natural

Gas

Nuclear

Power

Digital

TechnologyDistribution

Carbon

Capture

Wind and

Solar

The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be

Source: Electric Power Research Institute – EPRI

Long-Term Research Needs vs. Near-Term Trends

23

Uncertainty: What Lies Ahead?

Centralized Supply

by LargeUnits

Concentrated Fuel Portfolio

Central Grid Control

Autonomous Micro-grid Control

Distributed Self-Supply By Smaller

Units

High Future Growth

Low Future Growth

Highly Diverse Fuel Portfolio

24

PJM Super Computer Cuts Run Time by a Factor of 10

Source PJM

25

Artificial Intelligent for Load Forecasting

Intelligent

Intelligent Alarm Processing &

Source PJM

Global Energy Use By Fuel Type(percent of 2016 consumption)

Source: BP 2018 Energy Outlook

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250% Coal

Electricity

Gas

Oil

27

2019--First Time in My Career-- US Net Energy Exporter

PJM

Leader ─ We cannot change the wind,

but we can adjust our sails.

Pessimist – Complains about the wind

Optimist – Thinks the winds will change

DER/Energy Efficiency –The Winds Have Changed

29

Grid of the Future--Meeting the Challenge

Source: EPRI

30

Project Partners

Project Call - May 16, 2019

33

“Skate to Where the Puck is Going to Be”Wayne Gretzky

HVDCPower

Electronics

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SAIDI (12-Month Rolling)

1st Automation

Enabled

Smart Grid cuts Chattanooga epb Outage Time in Half

Min

ute

s

35

A Tale of Two Nuclear Power Plants

• Only six miles apart, but a world apart in coping

with the tsunami.

• At the Daini plant, operators responded with

something like the U.S. nuclear industry’s FLEX

strategy and saved all four reactors. Source: NEI

Daiichi Daini

36

The Fukushima Effect

“The tsunami stones are warnings across generations, telling

descendants to avoid the same suffering of their ancestors.” NY Times 4/22/2011

“Do not build your homes below this point!”

127.6 feet

above sea

level; 1896

37

Union Station ─ 1908

38

The best way to predict

the future is to create it!---Peter Drucker

Role of a Leader