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Report on World Tourism Economy Trends（2018）
Release Edition
World Tourism Cities Federation
Tourism Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
October 2017
1
ContentsI. Comprehensive and fast growth of the global tourism economy.......................................4
1.1 The total global tourist arrivals is nearly 11.9 billion in 2017, 1.6 times as many as
the total global population.................................................................................................. 4
1.2 The 2017 total global tourist revenue is USD 5.3 trillion, as much as 6.7% of the
global GDP..........................................................................................................................5
1.3 The 2017 global tourist growth is higher than that of 2016.........................................5
1.4 The global tourism economy growth rate is remarkably higher than that of global
GDP in 2017........................................................................................................................6
1.5 The global tourism growth will still be higher than the global economy growth in
2018.....................................................................................................................................7
II. The global tourism tripod pattern becomes more obvious.................................................8
2.1 In the global tourism pattern, the European part is shrinking, the American part
remains the same and the Asian-Pacific part is expanding................................................ 8
2.2 The top 10 countries in the global tourism ranking are the countries in Europe,
Asia-Pacific and America................................................................................................. 11
2.3 The tripod pattern will be more obvious in 2018....................................................... 11
III. Tourism grows faster in emerging economies..................................................................12
3.1 Both the total tourist arrivals and the total tourist revenue of emerging economies
will increase by about 1%.................................................................................................12
3.2 Emerging economies hosted 70% of the global tourists............................................ 14
3.3 Both the total tourist arrivals and the total tourist revenue of emerging economies
will grow obviously faster than those of developed countries in the future.................... 15
IV. The tourism development of BRICS stands out...............................................................16
4.1 The total tourist arrivals of BRICS accounts for 3/4 of the total tourist arrivals of
emerging economies......................................................................................................... 16
2
4.2 The percentage of the total tourist revenue of BRICS in the total tourist revenue of
emerging economies is over 50%.....................................................................................17
V. Tourism further promotes the globalization process........................................................ 18
5.1 The growth rate of the global international tourism is higher than that of the global
international trade............................................................................................................. 18
5.2 Tourism has become the largest component of the international trade in services....19
VI．Global tourism investment grows quickly........................................................................20
6.1 Global tourism investment grows by 4.1%, compared with that of the previous year
...........................................................................................................................................20
6.2 The tourism investment scale of the Asia-Pacific Region is the largest and the
growth rate is the fastest................................................................................................... 22
VII. Cities play important roles in the global tourism economy..............................................23
7.1 2/3 of the WTCF member cities have received nearly 1/3 of the global entry tourists
...........................................................................................................................................23
7.2 The growth rate of the entry tourists of the WTCF member cities has gradually
surpassed the growth rate of the global international tourists..........................................24
7.3 The domestic tourism growth rate of the WTCF member cities is higher than the
global domestic tourism growth rate................................................................................ 25
VIII. The growth rates of the global listed tourism companies are basically consistent with the
major capital market growth rate......................................................................................26
8.1 The market capitalization of 50 listed tourism companies has doubled in 6 years and
the compound annual growth rate is 14.04%................................................................... 26
8.2 Tourism has gradually entered an oligarchic era........................................................28
8.3 The ratios of liabilities to assets of most listed tourism companies are usually at the
two levels: 70% and 50%..................................................................................................29
8.4 Except for the larger fluctuations of the travel service industry, the profitability of
the other listed tourism companies generally went up steadily........................................30
3
IX. Eight major technologies will change the global tourism development trends................. 31
9.1 Artificial intelligence increases the operation efficiency of tourism..........................31
9.2 Tourism will be one of the main application directions of VR technology............... 32
9.3 Blockchains will change the payment system, credit system and service system of
tourism.............................................................................................................................. 32
9.4 Human-computer interaction techniques will affect the tourist industry development
in 6 aspects........................................................................................................................33
9.5 New energy revolution effectively supports the sustainable development of tourism
...........................................................................................................................................33
9.6 GIS technology facilitates the scientific decisions of tourism...................................34
9.7 The Internet of Things technology will change the service processes and discourse
structure of tourism...........................................................................................................35
9.8 Cloud computing promotes the digital management and digital marketing of tourism
...........................................................................................................................................35
X. Tourism faces challenges of human capital......................................................................36
10.1 The gap of tourism in human capital is large........................................................... 36
10.2 High-end management and technology talents are more insufficient......................38
10.3The growth of the people employed in tourism of major countries of the world does
not match the growth of the industry................................................................................38
10.4 The mobility of the people working in tourism is high............................................42
10.5 Human resources flow from the traditional tourist industry to the new tourist
industry..............................................................................................................................42
4
I. Comprehensive and fast growth of the global tourism
economy
In 2017, the economic situations of the global major countries are gradually
improving. The consumer confidence indexes of all the countries continue to increase.
The tourism demands of all the major economies steadily grow, the transnational
tourist facilities are constantly improving and the travel costs continue to decrease. In
this background, the total global tourist arrivals and the total global tourist revenue
maintains their strong growth momentums.
1.1 The total global tourist arrivals is nearly 11.9 billion in 2017,
1.6 times as many as the total global population
According to the prediction of the research group, the total global tourist arrivals
(including the domestic tourist arrivals and the international tourist arrivals, and the
same below) will reach 11.88 billion arrivals in 2017 and it is 1.6 times as many as the
world population (See Table 1.1). In the global range, the groups participating in
tourism are constantly growing and the tourism consumption has become an
important lifestyle of the people of the world.
Table 1.1 Global tourism economy: total tourist arrivals (2015-2018)
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Total global tourist arrivals (100
million arrivals)104.5 111.2 118.8 126.7
Ratio of global tourist arrivals to
global population1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
5
1.2 The 2017 total global tourist revenue is USD 5.3 trillion, as
much as 6.7% of the global GDP
The total global tourist revenue (including the total domestic tourist revenue and the
total international tourist revenue, and the same below) will reach USD 5.3 billion in
2017 and it is as much as 6.7% of the global GDP (See Table 1.2). The role of tourism
in promoting global growth has become more obvious. 1
Table 1.2 Global tourism economy: total tourist revenue (2015-2018)
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Total global tourist revenue
(USD 1 trillion)4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6
Percentage of total global tourist
revenue to global GDP (%)6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8
1.3 The 2017 global tourist growth is higher than that of 2016
In 2017, both the total global tourist arrivals and the 2017 total global tourist revenue
increase faster than those in 2016. The total tourist arrivals increase by 6.8%, 0.4
percentage points higher than that of 2016. The growth rate of the total tourist revenue
is 4.3%, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of 2016 (See Table 1.3).
1GDP (current USD) data are from the IMF.
6
Table 1.3 Global tourism economy: growth rates (2015-2018)
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Growth rate of global tourist
arrivals (%)6.2 6.4 6.8 6.7
Growth rate of total global
tourist revenue (%)-4.2 2.6 4.3 5.9
1.4 The global tourism economy growth rate is remarkably
higher than that of global GDP in 2017
The 2017 actual growth rates of global GDP predicted by the International Monetary
Fund and the World Bank are respectively 3.5% and 2.7%, and the growth rate of the
total global tourist revenue is respectively 0.8 percentage points and 1.6 percentage
points higher than them (See Table 1.4).
Table 1.4 Global tourism economy: comparison with GDP growth rates
(2015-2018)
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Global GDP growth rate (%)2 -5.5 3.1 3.5 3.6
Global GDP growth rate (%)3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.9
Total global tourist revenue
growth rate (%)-4.2 2.6 4.3 5.9
2Data source: global GDP growth prediction by the IMF.3Data source: global GDP growth prediction by the World Bank.
7
1.5 The global tourism growth will still be higher than the global
economy growth in 2018
Considering the global economy growth may be higher or lower than the expected
growth, we have predicted the global tourism growth rates in three different situations
(See Table 1.5). Obviously, no matter what situation occurs, the global tourism
economy growth rate is higher than the global economy growth rates predicted by the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Table 1.5 2018 global tourism economy prediction
High growth
situation
Ordinary
situation
Low growth
situation
Total global tourist arrivals
(100 million)128.77 126.71 124.52
Growth rate of total tourist arrivals 7.8% 6.7% 5.5%
Total global tourist revenue
(USD 100 million)56,593 55,696 54,809
Growth rate of total global tourist revenue 6.7% 5.9% 5.0%
8
II. The global tourism tripod pattern becomes more
obvious
2.1 In the global tourism pattern, the European part is shrinking,
the American part remains the same and the Asian-Pacific part
is expanding
Viewing from the global percentage of the total tourist arrivals and the total tourist
revenue of each great region , the percentage of the European Region continues to go
down, the percentage of the tourist arrivals of the American Region has gone down a
little, the percentage of the tourist revenue of the American Region has gone up
somewhat and the percentages of the Asian-Pacific Region have obviously gone up.
Viewing from the total tourist arrivals, the total tourist arrivals of the Asian-Pacific
Region is 66.6% of the total global tourist arrivals in 2017 (See Figure 2.1), an
increase of 1.6 percentage points compared with 65.0% of 2016 (See Figure 2.2).
From 2016 to 2017, the percentage of the American Region dropped from 16.5% to
15.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. The percentage of the European Region
dropped from 15.6% to 14.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. The percentage of
the Middle East Region dropped by 0.1 percentage points and the percentage of the
African Region remained the same. In general, the sum of the European Region, the
American Region and the Asian-Pacific Region is 97.3% of the total global tourist
arrivals.
9
Figure 2.1 Percentages of the total tourist arrivals of the great regions in the total
global tourist arrivals (2016)
Figure 2.2 Percentages of the total tourist arrivals of the great regions in the total
global tourist arrivals (2017)
10
Viewing from the total tourist revenue, from 2016 to 2017, the percentage of the
Asian-Pacific Region increased from 32.3% to 33.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage
points. The percentage of the American Region increased from 30.7% to 30.9%, a
slight increase of 0.2 percentage points. The percentage of the European Region
dropped from 32.0% to 31.0%, a decrease of 1 percentage point. The percentages of
the Middle East Region and the African Region remained the same. In general, the
sum of the European Region, the American Region and the Asian-Pacific Region is
95.0% of the total global tourist revenue (See Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4).
Figure 2.3 Percentages of the great regions’ total tourist revenue in the total
global tourist revenue (2016)
Figure 2.4 Percentages of the great regions’ total tourist revenue in the total
global tourist revenue (2017)
11
2.2 The top 10 countries in the global tourism ranking are in
Europe, Asia-Pacific and America
Table 2.1 Top 10 countries, ranking of global tourist arrivals andtotal tourist
revenue in 2017
2.3 The tripod pattern will be more obvious in 2018
According to the prediction of the research group, the percentage of the total tourist
arrivals of the Asia-Pacific Region in the total global tourist arrivals and the
Rank
ing
Country and its great
region
Total tourist
arrivals (100
million)
Country Total tourist
revenue (USD 0.1
trillion)
1 China (Asia-Pacific) 45.3 US 10.3 (America)
2 India (Asia-Pacific) 15.4 China 6.8 (Asia-Pacific)
3 US (America) 12.5 Germany 3.8 (Europe)
4 Japan (Asia-Pacific) 3.2 UK 2.5 (Europe)
5 France (Europe) 2.8 Japan 2.3 (Asia-Pacific)
6 Indonesia
(Asia-Pacific)2.6 France 2.0 (Europe)
7 Spain (Europe) 2.0 India 1.9 (Asia-Pacific)
8 Brazil (America) 1.8 Italy 1.7 (Europe)
9 Germany (Europe) 1.7 Mexico 1.4 (America)
10 UK (Europe) 1.6 Spain 1.3 (Europe)
12
percentage of the total tourist revenue of the Asia-Pacific Region in the total global
tourist revenue will continue to increase, the percentage of the total tourist arrivals of
the European Region in the total global tourist arrivals and the percentage of the total
tourist revenue of the European Region in the total global tourist revenue will
decrease somewhat and the percentages of the other regions will not change obviously
in 2018 (See Table 2.2).
Table 2.2 Tourism percentages of the great regions in global tourism in 2018
(prediction)
Asia-Pacific America EuropeMiddle
EastAfrica
Total tourist
arrivals in 201868.0% 15.1% 14.3% 1.4% 1.2%
Total tourist
revenue in 201834.0% 31.0% 30.1% 2.9% 2.0%
III. Tourism grows faster in emerging economies
3.1 Both the total tourist arrivals and the total tourist revenue of
emerging economies will increase by about 1%
Viewing from the development trend from 2006 to 2017, the total tourist revenue of
emerging economies grew obviously faster than that of developed countries (See
Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2). In 2017, the total tourist arrivals of developed countries is
3.39 billion arrivals, an increase of 2.2% compared with that of the previous year. The
percentage of the total tourist arrivals of developed countries in the total global tourist
13
arrivals is 28.6%, a decrease of 1.3% compared with that of the previous year. The
total tourist arrivals of emerging economies is 8.48 billion arrivals, an increase of
8.7% compared with that of the previous year. The percentage of the total tourist
arrivals of emerging economies in the total global tourist arrivals is 71.4%, an
increase of 1.3% compared with that of the previous year. The total tourist revenue of
developed countries is USD 3.2 trillion, an increase of 2.7% compared with that of the
previous year. The percentage of the total tourist revenue of developed countries in
the total global tourist revenue is 61.1%, a decrease of 0.9 compared with that of the
previous year. The total tourist revenue of emerging economies is USD 2 trillion, an
increase of 6.9% compared with that of the previous year. The percentage of the total
tourist revenue of emerging economies in the total global tourist revenue is 38.9%, an
increase of 0.9% compared with that of the previous year.
Figure 3.1 Growth rates of total tourist arrivals in different economies
(2006-2017)
14
Figure 3.2 Growth rates of total tourist revenues in different economies
(2006-2017)
3.2 Emerging economies hosted 70% of the global tourists
From 2016 to 2017, the percentage of the total tourist arrivals hosted by emergingeconomies in the total global tourist arrivals increased from 49.0% to 71.4%, anincrease of 22.4 percentage points and the percentage of the total tourist revenue ofemerging economies in the total global tourist revenue increased from 25.2% to38.9%, an increase of 13.7 percentage points (See Figure 3.3 and Figure 3.4).
Figure 3.3 Percentages of the total tourist arrivals of emerging economies anddeveloped economies in the total global tourist arrivals (2006-2017)
15
Figure 3.4 Percentages of the total tourist revenues of emerging economies and
developed economies in the total global tourist revenue (2006-2017)
3.3 Both the total tourist arrivals and the total tourist revenue of
emerging economies will grow obviously faster than those of
developed countries in the future
In the future, the tourism development of developed countries will further slow. It has
been predicted that the growth rate of the total tourist arrivals of emerging economies
and the growth rate of the total tourist revenue of emerging economies will
respectively be 8.7% and 9.3% in 2018 and those of developed countries will
respectively be 1.8% and 3.7% in 2018 (See Table 3.1).
16
Table 3.1 Growth rates of the total tourist revenues of emerging economies and
developed countries in 2018 (prediction)
Developed countries Emerging economies
Growth rate of the received
tourist arrivals1.8% 8.7%
Growth rate of the total tourist
revenue3.7% 9.3%
IV.The tourism development of BRICS stands out
4.1 The total tourist arrivals of BRICS accounts for 3/4 of the
total tourist arrivals of emerging economies
In 2017, the total tourist arrivals of BRICS will reach 6.36 billion arrivals, an increase
rate of 3.96% (See Table 4.1). The total tourist arrivals of BRICS account for 75.0%
of the total tourist arrivals of emerging economies (See Figure 4.1) and it has become
an important part of the tourism of emerging economies. It has been predicted that the
total tourist arrivals of BRICS will be 6.59 billion arrivals and the growth rate will be
3.57% in 2018 (See Table 4.1).
Table 4.1 Total tourist arrivals of BRICS
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Total tourist arrivals (100
million arrivals)57.13 61.21 63.64 65.91
Growth rate of total tourist
arrivals (%)8.67 7.15 3.96 3.57
17
Figure 4.1 Percentage of the total tourist arrivals of BRICS in the total tourist
arrivals of emerging economies
4.2 The percentage of the total tourist revenue of BRICS in the
total tourist revenue of emerging economies is over 50%
In 2017, the total tourist revenue of BRICS will be USD 1.05 trillion, an increase rate
of 6.97% (See Table 4.2). The percentage of the total tourist revenue of BRICS in the
total tourist revenue of emerging economies will be 51.1% (See Figure 4.2), which
will make an important contribution to the tourism economy of emerging economies.
It has been predicted that the total tourist revenue of BRICS will be USD 1.10 trillion
in 2018, an increase rate of 5.49% (See Table 4.2).
Table 4.2 Total tourist revenue of BRICS
Estimate Prediction
2015 2016 2017E 2018F
Total tourist revenue (USD 1 trillion) 0.94 0.98 1.05 1.10
Growth rate of total tourist revenue (%) -1.04 3.67 6.97 5.49
18
Figure 4.2 Percentage of the total tourist revenue of BRICS in the total tourist
revenue of emerging economies
V. Tourism further promotes the process of globalization
5.1 The growth rate of the global international tourism is higher
than that of the global international trade
The growth rate of the global international tourism economy is higher than that of the
global trade and it has become an important driving force to promote the international
trade growth. According to the latest data of the World Bank, the 2017 international
trade has picked up somewhat and the growth rate will be 4.0%, 1.6 percentage points
higher than that of 2016. According to the prediction of the research group, the growth
rate of the 2017 global international tourism (i.e. entry tourism) will be 4.7%, 0.7
percentage points higher than that of the global international trade (See Figure 5.1).
19
Figure 5.1 Global trade growth rate and global tourism trade growth rate4
(2006-2017)
5.2 Tourism has become the largest component of the
international trade in services
It has been found by combining the data of the International Trade Organization with
the data of the research group, the 2016 international tourist trade in services was the
largest component of the 2016 international trade in services and the tourist trade in
services accounted for 25.1% of the whole international trade in services. The
percentage of the 2016 international tourist trade in services was 2.3 percentage points
higher than that of the 2016 international building trade in services and 7.3 percentage
points higher than that of the 2016 international transport trade in services (See Figure
5.2).
4The global trade data include the merchandise trade data and the data on the trade in services. The data are fromthe World Bank.
20
Figure 5.2 Percentages of all the components of the 2016 trade in services(export)5
VI．Global tourism investment grows quickly6
6.1 Global tourism investment grows by 4.1%, compared with
that of the previous year
The 2017 global tourism investment amount is USD 839.68 billion, an increase of
4.1% compared with that of the previous year. In recent ten years, the global tourism
investment has grown rapidly while it has obviously affected by the macro-economy.
The tourism investment remarkably decreased after the global financial crisis broke
out in 2008. The tourism investment grew negatively in both 2009 and 2010. In the
5The data on the trade are from the WTO. The international tourist data are the data obtained by the research groupthrough their measurements and calculation.6The tourism investment includes the inputs of the industries directly related to tourism. The data are from theWTTC.
21
five-year period from 2013 to 2017, the average growth rate of the global tourism
investment 4.2% (See Figure 6.1 and Figure 6.2).
Figure 6.1 Global tourism investment amounts (2008-2017)
Figure 6.2 Global tourism investment growth rates (2008-2017)
22
6.2 The tourism investment scale of the Asia-Pacific Region is the
largest and the growth rate is the fastest
In the global tourism investment, the tourism investment scale of the Asia-Pacific
Region is the largest and the growth rate is the fastest. In 2017, the tourism
investment scale of the Asia-Pacific Region accounts for 38.1% of the global tourism
investment scale and the growth rate 3.6%. Viewing from the investment percentages
in the total global investment, the investment percentages of the American Region and
the European Region are respectively 28.7% and 23.4%, ranking second and third
respectively. Viewing from the average tourism investment growth rate in the recent
ten years, the growth rates of the Middle East Region and the European Region are
respectively 2.7% and 2.1%, ranking second and third; the growth rate of the African
Region is 1.1%, ranking fourth. The average tourism investment growth rate of the
American Region in the recent ten years is only 0.2% (See Figure 6.3 and Figure 6.4).
Figure 6.3 Comparison of the tourism investment percentages of the global five
great regions (2017)
23
Figure 6.4 Annual average tourism investment growth rates of the five great
regions (2008-2017)
VII. Cities play important roles in the global tourism
economy
7.1 2/3 of the WTCF member cities have received nearly 1/3 of
the global entry tourists
After collecting and analyzing the relevant data from 87 of the WTCF member cities
(about 2/3 of the total member cities) with more complete data, the report has found
that the 87 member cities have received 330 million entry tourist arrivals in 2017,
accounting for 26.6% of the global entry tourist arrivals (1.24 billion arrivals) (See
Figure 7.1), that is, 2/3 of the WTCF member cities have received nearly 1/3 of the
global entry tourists.
24
Figure 7.1 Percentage of the entry tourists received by 87 of the WTCF member
cities in the global entry tourists
7.2 The growth rate of the entry tourists of the WTCF member
cities has gradually surpassed the growth rate of the global
international tourists
After calculating based on the data of the Euromonitor database, we have found that
the arrivals of the entry tourism received by the 87 WTCF member cities steadily
went up from 2013 to 2017 and the growth rate increased from 3.3% of 2013 to 5.3%
of 2017, an increase of 2 percentage points. Since 2015, the growth rate of the entry
tourist arrivals of these cities has become remarkably higher than that of the global
international tourists. In 2017, the growth rate of the entry tourist arrivals received by
25
these cities is 5.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher than that (3.9%) of the global
international tourist arrivals (See Figure 7.2).
Figure 7.2 Comparison between the entry tourism growth rate of the 87 WTCF
member cities and the global international tourism growth rate (2013-2017)
7.3 The domestic tourism growth rate of the WTCF member
cities is higher than the global domestic tourism growth rate
After calculating based on the data of the Euromonitor database on 44 WTCF member
cities, we have found that the average growth rate of their domestic tourist arrivals has
always been above 7% since 2012 and it has always been higher than that of the
global domestic tourist arrivals. The 2016 growth rate 7.4%, 0.6 percentage points
higher than the growth rate (6.8%) of the global domestic tourist arrivals (See Figure
7.3).
26
Figure 7.3 The domestic tourism growth rate of the 44 WTCF member cities and
the growth rate of the total global domestic tourist arrivals (2012-2016)
VIII.The growth rates of the global listed tourism companies
are basically consistent with the major capital market
growth rate
8.1 The market capitalization of 50 listed tourism companies has
doubled in 6 years and the compound annual growth rate has
been 14.04%
The report has selected and analyzed 50 most representative listed tourism companies
in the world7 (The 50 sample companies are hereinafter referred to as the listed
7Most of the sample companies selected in the report are from mature capital markets such as New York StockExchange, NASDAQ Stock Exchange, Toronto Stock Exchange, Paris Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchangeand Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Only a few are from emerging capital markets in China and Australia such as
27
tourism companies) and found the tourism development trends. The listed tourism
companies include 12 companies related to travel agencies, 10 transportation
companies, 12 hotel companies, 16 comprehensive companies (See the attached table
for the information on the specific companies). As shown in Figure 8.1, the listing
locations of the selected tourism companies cover the global major capital markets. 20
companies and 15 companies have been respectively listed at New York Stock
Exchange and at NASDAQ Stock Exchange.
Figure 8.1 Distribution of listing locations of the listed tourism companies
Data source: Wind Data
As shown in Figure 8.2, the total market capitalization of the 50 listed tourism
companies increased from USD 356.168 billion of 2010 to USD 785.983 billion of
2016 with a compound average growth rate 14.04%. The 2013 growth rate was the
highest. The year-on-year growth rate was 63.77%. During the 6 years, the total
Shanghai Stock Exchange and Australian Stock Exchange. The sample companies have been divided into fourtypes: the travel agency type, the transport type, the hotel type and the comprehensive type.
28
market capitalization of the 50 listed tourism companies increased by 120%, which
was consistent with the major capital market index growth rate.
Figure 8.2 Total market capitalization and growth rate of the listed tourism
companies (2010-2016)
Data source: Wind Data
8.2 Tourism has gradually entered an oligarchic era
Because the transport companies are affected by the transport industry, an oligopoly
market pattern still exists in the industry. The other types of companies have
undergone some competitions for many years. The market capitalization of some
companies with the first mover advantages or unique insights has steadily grown
through mergers, acquisitions, joint stock, etc. Therefore, oligopoly market patterns
have also formed and become obvious in the industries.
29
In recent years, online travel has rapidly risen among travel service companies and a
two-oligarchy pattern has formed. The two oligarchies —Priceline and Expedia—
have left the other online travel agencies and traditional travel agencies farther and
farther behind. As for hotel groups, Marriott International, Inc. suddenly became the
industrial leader by buying Starwood. It and Hilton Hotels & Resorts have become the
first group. As for comprehensive companies, the Walt Disney Company and Las
Vegas Sands Corp. have respectively taken a leading position in the theme park type
and the gambling, entertainment and leisure type.
8.3 The ratios of liabilities to assets of most listed tourism
companies are usually at the two levels: 70% and 50%
In general, the ratios of liabilities to assets of most listed tourism companies are
usually at the two levels: 70% and 50%. The ratios of liabilities to assets of the listed
hotel companies increased by nearly 20 percentage points from 2010 to 2015, but they
decreased somewhat in 2016 (See Figure 8.3).
Figure 8.3 Comparison of the ratios of liabilities to assets of the sub-industry of
the listed tourism companies (2010-2016)
Data source: Wind Data
30
8.4 Except for the larger fluctuations of the travel service
industry, the profitability of the other listed tourism companies
generally went up steadily
Since 2010, the online travel has developed very quickly and the competition in the
industry has been becoming more and more intense. In 2011, the operating profit
margin of the online travel industry was as high as 28.11%. However, it decreased to
12.69% in 2015. The fluctuation was large. As the industry changed from the quick
expansion to the normal competition, the profits of the travel service companies
changed from an unconventional profit state into a normal profit state. During the
period, numerous acquisitions and mergers occurred.
Figure 8.4 Comparison of the operating profit margins of the sub-industry of the
listed tourism companies (2010-2016)
Data source: Wind Data
31
IX. Eight major technologies will change the global
tourism development trends
2016 is the first year of artificial intelligence and a round of new technology and
application revolution occurred in the year in the world. In the fast-changing era,
sciences and technologies have brought new efficiencies, new conveniences, new
experiences, new order, new patterns and new challenges to the world, which have
deeply and widely changed the global tourism development trends. The most
influential sciences and technologies are the eight major technologies such as artificial
intelligence, VR, block chains and human-computer interactions.
9.1 Artificial intelligence increases the operation efficiency of
tourism
Artificial intelligence has integrated new theories and technologies such as machine
learning, deep learning, big data, supercomputing, Internet and brain science and it is
promoting a transformation of the human society. The artificial intelligence
represented by artificial intelligent computers, robots, unmanned vehicles, speech
recognition, image recognition, natural language processing and expert systems will
greatly change the operation modes and operation efficiencies of the global tourism
industry that takes human power input and customer services as the core. It will be
widely used in the tourist route design, hotel cloud system technology, online search
of OTA, hotel revenue management, etc. of the tourism community.
32
9.2 Tourism will be one of the main application of VR technology
Virtual Reality (VR) is a completely new human-computer interactive means created
by using computers and the latest sensor technology. VR technology can be used to
improve the tourist experiences. The products of “VR plus tourism” enable tourists to
feel as if they were personally on the scene and have the function of experiencing
before purchase which helps tourists make decisions. VR technology can also
improve the sharing level of tourist experiences. In the future, tourism will be one of
the most important application directions of VR technology.
9.3 Blockchains will change the payment system, credit system
and service system of tourism
Blockchain technology is used to superpose (chain) encrypted data (blocks) according
to the time sequence so as to generate permanent records that cannot be modified
reversely. It features many characteristics such as decentralization, openness,
autonomy, publicity, temper resistance and anonymity. It can be used in the tourist
payment field to effectively avoid some problems such as delayed payment, payment
fraud, chain debts and quality bond sedimentation and improve the quality and
efficiency of fund settlement. In the identity recognition field, many airlines are
paying close attention to the digital identity management that uses blockchain
technology. Digital identity certificates safer than traditional methods (such as
passports) can be provided by combining biometric identification technology with
blockchain technology. In addition, blockchains will reshape the customer loyalty
program so that the customers can get and consume their consumption points through
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the blockchains. The new customer loyalty and bonus program will change tourism
and the tourist consumption modes and trigger the union of multiple brands. In short,
blockchains will effectively improve the payment efficiency and settlement modes of
tourism create new credit systems and service systems of the tourist industrial chain.
9.4 Human-computer interaction techniques will affect the
tourist industry development in 6 aspects
Human-computer interaction techniques combine human bodies with computers
through input and output devices, enable human bodies to control machines and
devices and realize the interaction between the human body and the machine by using
touch technology, wearable devices, motion sensing technology or non-invasive
neural interface technology. Human-computer interaction techniques will affect the
tourism development in the following six aspects: improving tourist perceptual skills;
reconstructing tourist processes; providing benefits for the disabled and physically
weak people; accelerating the launch of new tourist products and devices; improving
the interaction, enjoyment and experiences of cultural tourist products; improving the
reality sense of the scenes on the screens of mobile phones, terminals, etc.
9.5 New energy revolution effectively supports the sustainable
development of tourism
The low-carbon clean energy technology based on distributed energy sources such as
solar energy, wind energy, bioenergy and geothermal energy has brought a huge
energy depot with a great potential to the human society. The outbreak of the new
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energy revolution has triggered the overall changes of economy, environment
treatment, lifestyles, etc., which will greatly affect the human society. In the tourist
field, new energy revolution will greatly support the development of green tourism
and low carbon tourism and help energy-saving and environmentally-friendly modes
develop in the world. New energy revolution has very wide influence on tourism,
from outdoor products to tourist attraction planning, from tourist facility construction
to hotel energy device improvement and from tourist transportation to supporting
projects of tourism. New energy revolution will effectively support the sustainable
development of the global tourism.
9.6 GIS technology facilitates the scientific decisions of tourism
The geographic information system (GIS) is a spatial information system which
collects, stores, manages, analyzes and expresses the information on the surfaces of
the earth related to the spatial and geographic distribution. The geographic
information system can not only be used to collect, input, edit, store and manage data
on tourism, it can also be used to analyze, search, output and display the space
information. In addition, it can be used to provide scientific bases for prediction, tests,
planning and decision making. The geographic information system may have a lot of
applications in tourist planning and plans. Meanwhile, the geographic information
system will bring new technical means and industrial standards for the scientific
measurements of tourism and tourist behaviors. In the future, the geographic
information system can be combined with other technologies such as VR to provide
effective support for the scientific measurements of the tourist destination
development and tourist behaviors.
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9.7 The Internet of Things technology will change the service
processes and discourse structure of tourism
The Internet of Things technology mainly establishes connections between thing to
thing (T2T), human to thing (H2T) and (human to human (H2H). It uses various
information sensing devices to collect the information in real time on things or
processes that need to be monitored, connected with or interacted with. At present,
The Internet of Things technology has been regarded as the key technology of smart
tourism and it has been widely used in the aspects such as self-help guide, electronic
navigation, one-key shopping and quick sharing. It is also used in airlines and airports
to help trace luggage and offer guides to passengers in terminals. Looking forward,
the Internet of Things will change the service processes and efficiencies of the global
tourism and help enterprises more fully meet the individual needs of tourists. The
Internet of Things will also change the discourse structure and power relationship of
the global tourism and offer tourists greater discourse power.
9.8 Cloud computing promotes the digital management and
digital marketing of tourism
Cloud computing is the addition, application and delivery mode based on the services
related to the Internet. It usually provides dynamic, extendable and often virtualized
resources. By using the technical support of big data and cloud computing, tourism
can integrate data on tourism and data on the other aspects such as public security,
transport, environment protection, land resources, urban and rural construction,
commerce, aviation, postal services, telecommunications and meteorology.
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Meanwhile, the main web search engines will join hands with electronic tourist
operators. They establish tourist big data resources integrating social data, tourist data
and the data of the relevant departments, promote the digital tourist management and
carry out digital marketing to realize the aim of being consistent with the development
trend of tourism such as the Internet application, individualizing visitors and
popularizing tourism.
X. Tourism faces challenges of human capital
10.1 The gap of tourism in human capital is large
According to the 2017 Report of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the
global tourism created 292 million jobs in 2016, accounting for 10% of the total
global jobs. It has created 298 million jobs in 2017. It is estimated that the average
annual growth rate of the jobs will be 2.5% in the future ten years and the global
tourism will create 382 million jobs in 2027 (See Figure 10.1). In 2016, the number of
the created direct jobs was 109 million. In 2017, it is 111 million. It is estimated that
the number of the created direct jobs will be 1.38 million in 2027 with an average
annual growth rate of 2.2%. The ratio of the number of the people employed in
tourism to the number of all the people employed in 2016 is above 3.5% and that in
2017 is also above 3.5%. It is estimated that the ratio will be higher than 4% in 2027.
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Figure 10.1 Trend of the ratio of the created direct jobs in the tourist industry to
the total jobs
Data source: TRAVEL& TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT 2017 WORLD, WTTC
38
However, the rapid tourist development and quick increase of jobs in tourism have
caused the shortage of tourist talents in some countries. Tourism is facing more
serious challenges in human capital, compared with other industries. In the 46
countries analyzed by the WTTC, 37 countries will face lack or shortage of tourist
talents in the future 10 years and only 6 countries face lack or shortage of talents in
their overall economy.
10.2 High-end management and technology talents are more
insufficient
At present, tourism has started to change from a labor-intensive industry into a
capital-intensive and technology-intensive tourism. The demand of the whole tourism
for talents continues to go up like a slope. The transformation needs high-end
management and technology talents with high-level skills and new thinking. Because
the demands of customers for tourist services are increasingly diversified and
customized, the future tourist management personnel need more extensive and
management abilities and business abilities. On the other hand, as new technologies
appear and they penetrate the tourist industry, the demand of tourism for high-end
technical talents will be very high and the gap in this aspect will be large.
10.3 The growth of the people employed in tourism of major
countries of the world does not match the growth of the industry
Take the United States, Australia, France, Mexico, Spain and England for example, in
the 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, only the people employed in British tourism
and Spanish tourism increased and the people in other countries remained almost the
39
same or decreased somewhat (See Figure 10.2). Viewing from the sub-industries, in
the United States, the people employed in the hotel and accommodation service
industry and the passenger transport industry increased somewhat while the people
employed in other industries such as the food and beverage service industry, the travel
service industry and the other reservation service industry obviously decreased. In
Australia, France and Mexico, the people employed in the hotel and accommodation
service industry decreased year by year (See Figure 10.3). Besides the United States,
the people employed in the Australian food and beverage service industry obviously
decreased too (See Figure 10.4). Viewing from the tourist transport industry, except
for the United States, the tourist transport industry has remained stable in recent 3 to 5
years in Australia, France, Mexico, Spain and England (See Figure 10.5). In the
United States and France, the people employed in the travel service industry and the
other reservation service industry showed a down trend and the trend in the United
States in the period from 2013 to 2015 was especially obvious (See Figure 10.6). In
the United States, Australia and France, the people employed in the other industries of
tourism decreased somewhat (See Figure 10.7).
Figure 10.2 Total of the people employed in the tourist industry (thousand
people)
40
Figure 10.3 Total of the people employed in the hotel and accommodation service
industry (thousand people)
Figure 10.4 Number of the people employed in the food and beverage service
industry (thousand people)
41
Figure 10.5 Number of the people employed in the passenger transport industry
(thousand people)
Figure 10.6 Number of the people employed in the travel service industry and the
other reservation service industry (thousand people)
42
Figure 10.7 Number of the people employed in the other industry (thousand
people)
10.4 The mobility of the people working in tourism is high
The global tourism is basically facing the problems of high staff turnover rate and the
talents moving toward other industries. According to the investigation of the WTTC
in some of its member enterprises, the employee turnover rate of the tourist industry is
between 3% and 36% and the average annual value is 18％. The turnover rates of the
non-technical workers, salespersons and customer service staff are the highest.
10.5 Human resources flow from the traditional tourist industry
to the new tourist industry
Generally speaking, the travel service industry, the tourist accommodation industry
and the tourist attractions form the traditional core industry of tourism. However, the
43
new tourist industry mainly includes the new accommodation industry, the online
travel enterprises, the theme parks and resorts, the online tourist transport enterprises,
etc. With the constant innovation and expansion of the new tourist industry, the tourist
human resources and talents started to flow toward the new tourist industry. Take
China for example8, over 340,000 people work in the traditional travel agencies of the
traditional core industry and the number of tourist guides with certificates is 850,000.
The number of the people working in star-rated hotels of the tourist accommodation
industry is 1,362,000. 6 million people work in tourist farms. The nationwide Grade A
tourist attractions have employed 1,229,000 people. The small private hotels of the
new accommodation industry employed nearly 900,000 people. The number of the
people employed in the nationwide economical hotels is 200,000. The number of the
people employed in the non-standard accommodation industry based on the sharing
economic mode is 6,400. The total number of the people working in the leading
online tourist enterprises such as Ctrip, Tongcheng Tourism, Qunar.com, Tuniu.com
and Lvmama.com is about 63,000 and the number of the people working in the other
online tourist enterprises is about 60,000. The theme parks and resorts have employed
about 250,000 people. The online tourist transport enterprises, i.e. the mobile tourist
platforms, have employed 1,918,000 people.
8“The comprehensive contribution rate of the tourist employment is 10.25% due to the promotion of innovationand starting new businesses，http://www.cnta.gov.cn/xxfb/jdxwnew2/201607/t20160722_778509.shtml
44
Figure 10.8 Distribution of the employees of the traditional Chinese tourist core
industry (unit: 10,000 people)
Figure 10.9 Distribution of the employees of the new Chinese tourist industry
(unit: 10,000 people)
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Attached Table List:
The 50 listed tourist companies selected in the report
No Type Stock code Corporate short name Listing location
1
TravelAge
ncy
PCLN.O Priceline NASDAQ Stock Exchange
2 0P2W.L AMADEUS IT London Stock Exchange
3 CTRP.O Ctrip NASDAQ Stock Exchange
4 EXPE.O EXPEDIA NASDAQ Stock Exchange
5 TRIP.O TRIPADVISOR NASDAQ Stock Exchange
6 QUNR.O Qunar.com (delisted) NASDAQ Stock Exchange
7 MMYT.O MAKEMYTRIP NASDAQ Stock Exchange
8 TZOO.O Travelzoo NASDAQ Stock Exchange
9OWW.N ORBITZ WORLDWIDE INC
(delisted)New York Stock Exchange
10 AWAY.O HOMEAWAY(delisted) NASDAQ Stock Exchange
11 TCG.L Thomas Cook Group London Stock Exchange
12 TUI.L TUI Group London Stock Exchange
1
Tran
sport UAL.N United Continental New York Stock Exchange
2 DAL.N Delta Air Lines (DELTA) New York Stock Exchange
3 AAL.O American Airlines NASDAQ Stock Exchange
46
4 LUV.N Southwest Airlines New York Stock Exchange
5 RYA.L Ryanair London Stock Exchange
6 AC.TO AIR CANADA-CLASS B Toronto Stock Exchange
7 QAN.AX QANTAS AIRWAYS LTD Australian Stock Exchange
8 LHA.F Lufthansa Frankfurt Stock Exchange
9 CNI.N CN Rail New York Stock Exchange
10 UNP.N UNION PACIFIC New York Stock Exchange
1
Hotel
WYN.N WYNDHAM New York Stock Exchange
2 MAR.O MARRIOTT INTL NASDAQ Stock Exchange
3 HLT.N Hilton Hotel New York Stock Exchange
4 AC.PA Accor Hotels Paris Stock Exchange
5 IHG.L InterContinental Hotels Group London Stock Exchange
6 H.N Hyatt New York Stock Exchange
7 MTN.N VAIL RESORTS New York Stock Exchange
8 HTHT.O Huazhu Hotels Group Ltd. NASDAQ Stock Exchange
9 STAY.N EXTENDED STAY AMERICA New York Stock Exchange
10 CHH.N Choice Hotels International New York Stock Exchange
112339.HK BeijingWest Industries International
Limited
Hong Kong Stock
Exchange
12 HOT.N STARWOOD(delisted) New York Stock Exchange
47
1Com
preh
ensive
DIS.N WALT DISNEY New York Stock Exchange
2 LVS.N Las Vegas Sands New York Stock Exchange
3 0027.HK Galaxy EntertainmentHong Kong Stock
Exchange
4 RCL.N Royal Caribbean International New York Stock Exchange
5MGM.N MGM International Hotel Group
LimitedNew York Stock Exchange
6 CCL.L Carnival London Stock Exchange
7 000069.SZ Overseas Chinese Town A Shanghai Stock Exchange
8 MLCO.O Melco Crown Entertainment NASDAQ Stock Exchange
9 MERL.L Merlin Entertainments London Stock Exchange
10 SIX.N Six Flags Amusement Parks New York Stock Exchange
11 0880.HK SJM HoldingsHong Kong Stock
Exchange
12 FUN.N Cedar Fair New York Stock Exchange
13 BYD.N Boyd Gaming New York Stock Exchange
14 CZR.O Caesar Entertainment NASDAQ Stock Exchange
15 WYNN.O WYNN RESORTS NASDAQ Stock Exchange
16 PENN.O Penn National Gaming, Inc. NASDAQ Stock Exchange
48
Report on World Tourism Economy Trends (2018)
Editor-in-chief: Song YuExecutive Editor: Song Rui and Li BaochunEditorial Board Members: (in the order of the initial letter of the family name)Jin Zhun, He Shengkang, Li Weiren, Liu Yongqiang, RenZhaowang, Shen Han, WangJian, Wang Yong, Wu Jinmei, Wu Meiqing, Yan Han, Zhang Nan, Zhang Yujing
The Research Group:
Song Rui, PhD in economics, researcher and director of the Tourism Research Centerof CASSJin Zhun, PhD in management science, secretary general of the Tourism ResearchCenter of CASSWu Jinmei, PhD in management science, researcher, deputy director of the TourismResearch Center of CASSLi Weiren, PhD in management science, head of the Education and TrainingDepartment of the Tourism Research Center of CASSTang Jizong, PhD in management science, head of the International CooperationDepartment of the Tourism Research Center of CASSWang Yong, PhD candidate of the Graduate School of CASS majoring in quantitativeeconomicsZhang Yujing, PhD candidate of the Graduate School of CASS majoring in tourismmanagementZhao Xin, PhD candidate of the Graduate School of CASS majoring in financeRen Zhaowang, PhD in economics, associate professor of the Graduate School ofCASSShen Han, PhD in economics, associate professor of the Tourism Department ofFudan UniversityChen Yongchang, PhD in management science, associate professor of the TourismDepartment of Hebei UniversityXue Nan, postgraduate of the Tourism Department of Fudan UniversityZeng Li, assistant to the director of the Tourism Research Center of CASS
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