report unep arendal report vital caspian graphics 2011

8/9/2019 REPORT UNEP Arendal Report Vital Caspian Graphics 2011

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Second edition

Opportunities, Aspirations and Challenges

Vital

Caspian

Graphics 2


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2

For he purposes o his publicaion, henames Iran and ussia have been used oreer o he Islamic epublic o Iran andhe ussian Federaion, respecively.

Te views expressed in his publicaionare hose o he auhors and do no nec-essarily reflec hose o Zo Environmen

Nework and GID-Arendal. Te pres-enaions and designaions employedconcerning he legal saus o any counry,erriory, ciy or area wihin is auhor-iy, or delineaion o is erriories andboundaries, do no reflec he opinion oZo Environmen Nework and GID-Arendal

Published by Zo EnvironmenNework and GID-Arendal wih supporrom he European Union and he UniedNaions Environmen Programme

Copyrigh 2011 Zo EnvironmenNework and GID-Arendal

All righs reserved.

ISBN: 978-82-7701-084-7

Prined by Imprimerie Villire in F-74160Beaumon, France on chlorine-ree,recycled paper wih 100% plan-based ink.

Te Geneva-based Zo Environmennework is a new answer o some sub-born old quesions. An inernaional non-profi organizaion, Zo s mission is oreveal, explain and communicae connec-ions beween he environmen and sociey.www.zoinet.org

GRID-Arendal is an environmenal inor-maion cenre locaed in Souhern Norway.GID-Arendals mission is o provide envi-ronmenal inormaion, communicaions andcapaciy building services or inormaionmanagemen and assessmen. Te cenrescore ocus is o aciliae he ree access andexchange o inormaion o suppor deci-sion making and secure a susainable uure.www.grida.no

We promote

environmentally sound

practices globally and in our own

activities. This publication is printed on

ecological paper. Our distribution policies aim

to reduce our carbon footprint.

Editors

ucevska, Ieva (GID-Arendal),Simonet, Oto (Zo Environmen Nework)

Cartography

Original carography by Philippe ekacewicz (le Monde Diplomaique) assised by Laura Marguerite and CcileMarin, laer updaed by iccardo Pravetoni (GID-Arendal),Novikov, Vikor (Zo Environmen Nework)

Photos

Effendi, ena (Baku),eshaieva, Mila (Berlin)

Cover Design

Liber, Maria (Zo Environmen Nework)

LayoutPiens, Janis

Special thanks to

Chiarandini, Sergio (Agip KCO),Ghaffarzadeh, Hamidreza (CASPECO Projec),Goodman, Simon (Caspian Inernaional Seal Sur vey Insiue, o Inegraive & Comparaive Biology),Kwisinskaia, Elena (inerim Secrearia o he ehran Convenion a UNEP egional Office or Europe),Miroanov , Igor (McGill Universiy),Nixdor, Daniel (inerim Secrearia o he ehran Convenion a UNEP egional Office or Europe),advanyi , Jean (Inernaional Insiue or Orienal Languages and Civilisaions),Savelli, Heidi (Global Programme o Acion or he Proecion o he Marine Environmen rom Land-based

Aciviies, UNEP),Schlingemann, Fris (inerim Secrearia o he ehran Convenion)

English copyediting

Luz, Seven (GID-Arendal),iviere, Emmanuelle,Hughes, Geoff (Zo Environmen Nework)


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The Caspian Sea region

represented in the

Catalan Atlas (1375)

(Bibliothque Nationale

de France, Paris)

A medieval perception of the Caspian Sea or as it was named then Bahr al-Khazar, the Sea of Khazar. The Northand the East appear empty, uncharted and unknown. In the South the Deylam Mountain Range, now named ElburzRange. In the West the worthy landmark is the Gate of the Gates (Ar. Bb al-Abwb), the present Derbent which was awall separating and defending the Southern Caucasus from the invading northern tribes. Two big islands have caughtthe attention of the geographer, Siakoh and Albab, none of which of any importance today. Abu Zayd al-Balkhi thePersian scholar drew the map possibly based on the basis of travellers tales mixed with fiction and mystery.

(Bodleian Library, Oxford, UK.)


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More han ive years ago we published heirs ediion o Vial Caspian Graphics,whi ch impr essed reader s wi h isabundance o new maerial presened

in a synhesized and visually appealing orma.Our goal ha i be read in he srees o Asrakhanand Akau may, however, have been oo ambiious or visionary despie he numerous elecronicools ha usually increase he circulaion o ourpublicaions.

Undeerred, and lush wih revoluionary spirio creae a beer world, we decided o produce a

second ediion. he world is changing, includinghe region around he Caspian Sea, and we aredeermined o capure and repor hese changes.he adopion o a proocol on oil polluion and hepresenaion o he irs Sae o he Environmenrepor a he hird Conerence o he Paries inAka u in Augus 2011 mark he ur her evolu io no he Caspian Convenion. hese vial graphicsare a reader riendly publicaion which presen

lesser-known aspecs o he region while coveringhe broader picure in an aracive orma. One ohe highlighs are he phoographic essays by enaEendi and Mila eshaieva.

Our uncompromising aiude and our ambiionso reach ou o communiies beyond environmenalproessionals remain, and our inspiraion rom heirs ediion says unchanged:

I wanted to writ e a book as purely geogr aphical incharacter, as dry and uncompromising as a travel report,and no more attractive than a rough-and-ready map

sketc hed out with a lump o coal on a piece o packin gpaper. Konsanin Pausovsky,

Sory o a Lie, vol 6, he esless Years

Oto Simonet,

GenevaFebruary 29h, 2012

Foreword


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Inrecent years the Caspian Sea has been the focus of increasedglobal attention. The world-wide decline in oil and gas reservesand the corresponding rise in the price of hydrocarbon derivativeshave heightened interest in an area where there is still growth potentialin oil and gas exploration. In addition, the region presents a wealth ofopportunities in other areas, including bioresources, transport corridors,and not least tourism. These new ventures may bring increasedprosperity, but they also put pressure on traditional rural communitiesand the environment.

Sea ofopportunities,

aspirations andchallenges

Te surge in he exploiaion o hydrocarbons in heCaspian region has changed he rules or developmenand engagemen in many secors, in paricular oil , land andsea ranspor, and services. Naional ineress mulipliedafer he breakdown o he Sovie Union as Azerbaijan,Kazakhsan and urkmenisan gained independence.elaionships beween hese saes are being esed ashe possibiliy o large profis emerges. Addiionally,wih China enering he game as an i ncreasingly srongeconomic player, he cenre o graviy is moving eas,demanding ha new ranspor and communicaionroues are considered across he region.

1

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTANAZERBAIJAN

RUSSIA

CLOSESTNEIGHBOURS

DESTINATIONOF RESOURCES

CASPIAN SEA

RESOURCES

(fish, oil)

IRANArmenia

Georgia

Turkey

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

RIPARIANCOUNTRIES

DISTANT NEIGHBOURSTRANSIT COUNTRIES

Bulgaria

Greece

Romania

PakistanNORTH

AMERICA

EUROPEANUNION

CHINAAND INDIA

OTHERASIAN

COUNTRIES

JAPAN

The Caspian Sea: neighbours and players

OTHEREUROPEANCOUNTRIES


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0.6

0.8

0 .7 0 .6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.01.0 0. 9 0 .8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.8

0 .7 0 .6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.01.0 0. 9 0 .8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.8

0 .7 0 .6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.01.0 0. 9 0 .8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.8

0 .7 0 .6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.01.0 0. 9 0 .8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.8

0 .7 0 .6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.01.0 0. 9 0 .8

0.9

1.0

0.7

EducationGDP

Iran

Azerbaijan

GDP Education

Education

Education

Education

GDP

GDP

GDP

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Russia

Life expectancy

Human Development Index (HDI) compositionfor the Caspian countries compared

with Norway (ranked first in 2007)Life expectancy

Life expectancy

Life expectancy

Life expectancy

Source: Human Development Report 2009, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York.

Total HDI value: 0.782





Figure: Composition of human development index. The characteristic feature inall four post-Soviet countries is a relatively high level of education in relation to national income

and rather low life expectancy, indicating high levels of poverty and deficient healthcare. In

contrast the level for all three indicators in Iran is fairly balanced.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

US dollars

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

16 000

17 000

18 000

19 000

20 000

Source: World Bank online database, accessed in April 2010.

The Gross National Income (GNI), formerly Gross NationalProduct (GNP), represents the broadest measure of nationalincome. It measures the total value added from domestic andforeign sources claimed by residents.

Gross National Income (GNI) in

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita

The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)dollar estimates the costrequired to buy the same amount of goods in any country. ThePPP is below the value of the US dollar in countries where thegeneral price index is lower than that of the United States, andabove it where prices are higher.

AzerbaijanIran

RussiaTurkmenistan

Kazakhstan

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

1 000

0

2 000

3 000

4 000

Figure: Purchasing po-wer parity (PPP) mea-sures how much a currency

can buy in terms of an inter-

national benchmark (usually

dollars), since the cost of

goods and services differs

between countries. PPP

is below the value of a US

dollar in countries where the

general price index is lower

than in the US (as is the case

for all five Caspian states, to

varying extents), and above it

where the prices are higher. Adollar thus buys much more

in the Caspian countries

than in the US, which only

marginally compensates for

the much lower income per

person. These curves do not

allow any conclusions on

the wealth of individuals or

income distribution among

the population.


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14 15

Te Caspian Sea region once only played a minor rolein world poliics. Ineres ocused exclusively on heAbsheron peninsula and Baku, where he oil indusrysared developing in he las quarer o he 19h cenury,providing he only significan economic growh in heregion. Oherwise he region remained largely rural, onhe margins o wo vas saes (saris ussia and Persia,subsequenly he Sovie Union and Iran) and well awayrom he cenres o indusry. I ofen lagged behindin erms o developmen and inrasrucure. Norh-souh rade beween Moscow and ehran was limied,paricularly as boh counries had oher much moresignifican coaslines.

Since 2001 he economy has botomed ou o pos-

Sovie aigue and sared rising seadily in Azerbaijan,Kazakhsan, ussia and urkmenisan.

In 2005 regional oil producion reached roughly 1.9million barrels a day (EIA 2006), comparable o SouhAmeri cas seco nd larges oil produc er, B razil . he BPSaisical eview o World Energy 2009 esimaed heCaspians share o oil and gas proved reserves in 2008a 3.8 per cen1 and 5.9 per cen, respecively, o heworld oal, wih oil a nd gas produc ion a 3.2 p er cen and 3.6 per cen.

Despie he oil-relaed increase in naional incomes,invesmen in he environmen has no subsaniallyincreased. Tis reflecs he naional prioriies or jobs,housing, educaion and healh. Te impac o he2007-09 financial crisis is o equal imporance, leavingis mark on all five counries. Almos everywhere heenvironmen has been among he firs secors o eel hecus in invesmen.

As a resul o he arid and semi-arid coninenalclimaic condiions many o he coasal areas havespecialized in exensive sock raising, essenially sheepand camels. Only in a ew oohills wih higher rainallin he Easern Caucasus and he Iranian provinces oGilan, Mazandaran and Gulisan has prosperous mixedarming developed wih orchards and marke gardens.

1In this case Caspian share includes Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Te Caspian region has pleny o choose rom whenexploring pas and presen civilizaions and culures,hisorical monumens and he beauy o is nauralresources. Wih unspoil beaches in he eas and wes,lush mounain oress in he souh, and he majesic Volgain he norh, coupled wih a mosaic o ehnic originsand culures, i has he poenial o atrac housands ovisiors. Ye, he ravel rade aces major challenges in heCaspian region. Susainable ourism is sill an unexploredopporuniy bu inadequae inrasrucure, includingimproper wase managemen or waer aciliies, andsress on residenial areas hinder growh in his secor.Te Iranian par o he Caspian Sea, wih is verdan plainand high mounains, accommodaes wice is normalpopulaion in he summer when ouriss rom oher pars

o Iran flock o he area. Some residences are se back onlya ew meres rom he waer line. In 2007 urkmenisanapproved a conrac or Avaza, a huge naional ourisresor involving he consrucion o an island on heshore o Caspian. All hese developmens pay litleatenion o he rise in sea level, which coninues o be areal hrea o he coasal area. Some pars o he region,such as Dagesan, are subjec o limiaions or securiyreasons. Wih an arid or semi-arid climae and difficulaccessibiliy, pars o Kazakhsan and urkmenisanwould also ace problems in opening up o r ourism.

Te coasal regions o he Caspian Sea suppor variousorms o agriculure. Te dry seppe o he ussian par(norhern Daghesan, Kalmukia) and he arid areaso Kazakhsan and urkmenisan specialize in sheeparming. Wih rising demand or mea and wool, hisrepuedly difficul aciviy is increasingly atracive,paricularly or enerprising sock raisers.

Te shores o souhern Daghesan, he plains oAzerbaijan and he Volga dela have radiionallyconcenraed on subsisence arming and horiculure,dependen on properly mainained irrigaion sysems.Local vineyards, coton fields, orchards (apples andpeaches, bu also mulberry or silk worms) and markegardening, have long supplied nearby owns and ciies,and buyers urher afield in norhern ussia.

Furher souh he more humid shores o he Lankaranarea o Azerbaijan and he oohills o norhern Iran havedeveloped oher specialiies: ea, cirus rui, walnus andhazelnus, all o which are sill key resources.

The uncertain status of the Caspian Sea

The high economic expectations and the newfound quest for national identity partly explain the

obstacles to agreement over the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Existing maritime agreements betweenIran and the Soviet Union, formerly the only countries bordering the sea, needed re-negotiation as

the three new republics of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan emerged. Negotiations among

the five countries are underway for a regional convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea,

but an over-arching agreement has yet to be reached on the division of the Caspian waters and

indirectly its natural and mineral resources. But the northern states Russia, Azerbaijan and

Kazakhstan signed a trilateral agreement in 2003 that allows them to p roceed with the development

of the hydrocarbon potential of the northern Caspian. The vital economic interests provide third

parties and international stakeholders with a good reason to downplay the tensions between states

bordering on the sea.


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16 17

Impoverished by successive crises, he rural populaionhas been emped o move o he regions overpopulaedciies, in keeping wih a widespread rend, bu overall hebalance is beginning o ip in avour o arming. Greaerinvesmen is neverheless needed o susain his secorand downsream agriood indusries, which are currenlyoudaed and ill equipped.

Fishing is imporan or all he litoral counries. Tecach o fish rom he Caspian conribues a significanshare o he regional economy. Fisheries provide morehan 7 000 jobs in Iran and perhaps an equal numberin relaed aciviies. However, wih fisheries cutingback due o he declini ng fish socks, environmenaldegradaion and changes in he ecosysem, he secoris losing is imporance, leaving many o hose whodepended on i jobless.

In percentage

Source: CIS Statistical Yearbook, Statistical Committeeof the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

0

10

20

30

40

50

70

60

80

90

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Share of food in total household expenses

Azerbaijan Russia Kazakhstan

Figure: Share of food in total household expenses. In the 1990s following the collapseof the Soviet regime and massive market deregulation, the breakdown of total household expenditure

radically changed. Its focus shifted towards basic human needs, such as food, for which spending

increased two or threefold in 10 years, reducing funds available for other essentials such as education

and health.

Main transportation axes for oil and gasCountries bordering on Caspian

0 1 000 km500

Other countriesEastward (China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia)

Westward (Europe and North America)

Iranian alternative (Towards Persian Gulf)disqualified by the United StatesMain zones for oil and gas extraction

Sources: Stephen Blank, Central Asias energy game intensifies, Eurasianet, September 2005; United States Energy Information Administration (EIA); SylvainePasquier, Pressions sur lor noir,lExpress, 1 st Au gust 2005; Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe (INOGATE ); Energy Map of the Middle East and Caspian Sea Areas,Petroleum Economist, London, 2003; International Energy Agency (IEA); Jean Radvanyi, Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales (INALCO), IEA,World Energy Outlook 2010.

ALTA

KHAKASSIE

DN DESEVENKS

DN DES NENETS DN DES

IAMALO-NENETS

KOMIS

DN DESKOMIS-

PERMIAKS

BACHKORTOSTAN

TATARSTAN

OUDMOURTIE

MORDOVIE

TCHOUVACHIE

RP. DEMARII-EL

CARLIE

KHALMG-TANGTCH-KALMYKIE

DAGHESTAN

DN DESKHANTY-MANSIS

Yerevan

Tbilissi

Helsinki

Tallinn

Riga

Vilnius

Minsk

Ankara

Mossoul

Marioupol

Constanta

Bourgas

Alexandroupolis

SbastopolCrime

Chisinau

Bucarest Odessa

Kiev

Varsovie

Oslo

Rovaniemi

chblic

ece

Petc

hora

Dniep

r

Bichkek

Doushanbe

Tachkent

Dtroit desDardanelles

Dtroit duBosphore

Istanbul

Kaliningrad

VIA BALTICA

VOIE FERRE

CONTOURNANT

L'UKRAINE

FERRYET

BATEAUXCITERNES

PORT ET TERMINALPTROLIER

EN CONSTRUCTION PERMETTANT

D'VITERLESTATSBALTES

AUTOROUTE

ET TGV

MODERNISATION

DU TRANSSIBRIEN

PORT EN

CONSTRUCTION

FERRY

TRACECA

ET INOGATE

ROUTE MERNOIRE -

IRAN PERMETTANT

LE DSENCLAVEMENT

DE L'ARMNIE

OLODUC

SOUS-MARIN

BATEAUX-

CITERNES

DUC

RI

RYF

BA

ATARSTA

NIS

NSSIB

DN DESANTY-

SIS

DN DESAMALO-

TS

Petc

hora

Yenis

ey

Ob

Ob

Ob

Irtych

Volga

Don

Ura

l

Araks

Irtych

Volga

BARENTS

SEA

BALTIC

SEA

NORWEGIAN

SEA

BLACK

SEA

MEDITERRANEAN

SEA

CASPIAN

SEA

ARAL

SEA

SwedenNorway

Finland

Estonia

Latvia

LithuaniaPoland

Belarus

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

Denmark

Moldova

China

Kyrgyzstan

Iraq

Syria

Turkey

Cyprus

Lebanon

Israel

Bulgaria

Romania

Jordan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Iran

Russia

AzerbaijanArmenia

Georgia

Palestine

Egypt

Slovakia

Pakistan

India

Baku

Tehran

Almaty

Astana

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Herat

Alashanku

Chechnya

Saint Petersburg

Samara

Rostov

Volgograd

Astrakhan

ChelyabinskOmsk

Supsa

Novorossiysk

Ceyhan

Olia

Moscow

Murmansk

To VladivostokJapan and China

To Oman Seavia Pakistan

To Shanghai

To Europe andNorth America

To Europe andNorth America

ToEurope

ToEurope

To EuropeandNorth America

ToEurope and

North America

Yenis

ey

Markets competing for Caspian oil and gas

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ

LE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE - APRIL 2006

Ashgabad


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18 19

Transcontinental transportation projects

Russia

0 1 000 km500

Other countries Projects developed with Russia

Sources: Jean Radvanyi, La bataille des liaisons transasiatiques, in Atlas du Monde diplomatique, Paris, January 2003; Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia(TRACECA), European Union, TACIS Programme, 2005.

Countries bordering on Caspian

MULTIMODAL ROUTES (highways, road, railroadand possibly pipelines) combined

Projects developed without Russia

Projects developed with Russia

SINGLE-MODE ROUTES (railway only)

Projects developed without Russia

ALTA

KHAKASSIE

DN DES

EVENKSDN DES NENETS

DN DES

IAMALO-

NENETS

KOMI

S

DN DES

KOMIS-

PERMIAKS

BACHKORTOSTAN

TATARSTAN

OUDMOURTI

E

MORDOVIE

TCHOUVACHIE

RP. DE

MARII-EL

CARLIE

KHALMG-

TANGTCH-

KALMYKIE

DAGHESTAN

DNDES

KHANTY-

MANSIS

BA

ATARSTA

DN DESANTY-

SIS

DN DESMALO-

TS

Marioupol

Chisinau

Burgas

Alexandroupolisce

CeyhanTowardsEuropeand

North America

hblic

Rovaniemi

Mossoul

Kaliningrad

Oslo

Yerevan

Tbilisi

Helsinki

Tallinn

Riga

Vilnius

Minsk

Ankara

ConstantaCrimea

Bucharest

Odessa

Kiev

Warsaw

Pe

tch

ora

D

niepr

Bishkek

Dushanbe

Tashkent

DardanellesBosphorus

Istanbul

Yen

isey

Ob

Ob

Ob

Irtych

Volga

Don

Ural

Yen

isey

Irtych

Volga

BARENTSSEA

BALTICSEA

NORWEGIANSEA

BLACK

SEA

MEDITERRANEAN

SEA

CASPIAN

SEAARAL

SEA

SwedenNorway

Finland

Estonia

LatviaLithuania

Poland

Belarus

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

Denmark

Moldova

China

Kyrgyzstan

Iraq

Syria

Turkey

Cyprus

Lebanon

Israel

Bulgaria

Romania

Jordan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Iran

Russia

AzerbaijanArmenia

Georgia

West BankEgypt

Slovakia

Pakistan

India

Baku

Ashgabad

Tehran

Almaty

Astana

FERRIESANDTANKERS

HIGHWAY ANDFAST TRAIN

CONNECTION

TRANS-SIBERIANRENOVATION

FERRIES

TRACECAAND INOGATE

BLACK SEA-IRANROUTE

TRACECA ANDINOGATE

TRACECAAND INOGATE

RUSSIA-IRANTRANSPORTATION

ROUTE

BARENTS SEA-CHINATRANSPORTATION ROUTE

BARENTS SEA-KOMSOMOLSK-ON-AMURTRANSPORTATION ROUTE

VIA BALTICA

BLACK SEA-BALTICTRANSPORTATION

ROUTE

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Saint Petersburg

Samara

RostovVolgograd

Astrakhan

ChelyabinskOmsk

Novorossiisk Olia

Moscow

Murmansk

Arkhangelsk

Indiga

ToVladivostokand China

ToChina

ToWestern

Europe

ToWesternEurope

Transportation projects converging on the Caspian

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZLE MONDE DIPLOMATIQUE - APRIL 2006

Sharing the new oil wealth

Te prospecs or rapid oil wealh conras wihas spreading povery ollowing he collapse o heSovie economy. Alhough massive invesmen hasbeen channelle d ino he area, is effec is sill bohgeographically and socially very limied, wih litlewidespread impac on sociey. Nor does i ullycompensae or he crisis in older, more radiionalaciviies such as isheries and agriculure and in hecase o ormer Sovie republics, he closure o ineicienindusrial complexes. In many counries he benefis ooil revenue are sill resriced o he happy ew. Someciies Baku, and o a lesser exen Makhachkala and

Asrakh an have enjoyed specacul ar growh. Inhe meanime much o he inrasrucure ranspor,elecommunicaions, drinking waer in smallowns and rural areas is very poor. Te povery gap iswideni ng, wih much o he populaion increasinglyexcluded rom services and wealh as privaizaion osocial services progresses.

In all he areas bordering on he Caspian Sea, prioriyshould be given o diversiying aciviies and invesmen.Paricular atenion should be given o secors suchas ourism, agriculure and ood producion as wellas services. Oil and gas alone canno be expeced oprovide sufficien jobs or he as-growing populaion.Only widespread diversificaion can conain risingunemploymen, which is severely affecing several areasaround he Caspian and orcing many young people ofind work elsewhere.

Transportation on the move

For many years, coasal navigaion has connecedrepublics in he ormer Sovie Union. I used he onlyoule rom he Caspian, he Volga-Don canal, whichconnecs he Black Sea and he ussian canal sysem ohe Balic. I is sill used o ranspor raw maerials, imber,coal, grain, erilisers, and oher producs.

However, he oil boom has changed he way he CaspianSea is used as a ranspor roue. In he absence o anagreemen on he use o he seabed, including he laying opipelines, crude oil is ranspored in anker wagons rolledono erries or in small ankers. Tis has simulaed he

erry business. Te shipyards a Nizhny Novgorod haverecenly delivered several 8 000 or 13 000 deadweighonnage ankers, he larges ha can be used given helimiaions on access o he sea and is pors. Ferryservices connecing Akau and urkmenbashi o Baku,and Olia o he coas o Iran are being supplemened bycoasal rail links, all impacing on and inroducing newrisks o he naural and living environmen o he growingpopulaion in he coasal areas o he Caspian Sea.

he European Unions ACECA programme(Anspor Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia)modernized he Baku-urkmenbashi erry line, orlong he only one, and added a Baku-Akau service oKazakhsan. o couner compeiion rom his newSilk oad, ussia has launched a projec o build anorh-souh link, connecing he Balic and ussia oIran and he Persian Gul. I has opened a new por aOlia, on he Volga dela, conneced o he river andcanal sysem, and o he rail nework ha runs parallel

o he river, providing or as conainer ranspor. Ialso has plans o supplemen he mariime roue bydeveloping a coasal rail link, moderni zing he exisingrack beween Azerbaijan and Iran.

Following he gas dispue beween ussia and Ukraine inJanuary 2009 an d he war opposing ussia and Georgiain Augus 2008, Wesern Europe is showing an increasingineres in Azerbaijan, in paricular he proposed Nabuccopipeline projec which would supply Europe wih gas by-passing ussia alogeher. Bu alhough keen o look wes,Baku is prepared o consider alernaive poliical andcommercial opions (ISS, 2009).


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20 21

2

The Caspian Sea is the largest closed body of water on the surfaceof the Earth. Its complete lack of any natural connection with the

oceans makes it a very special ecosystem, and as such particularlyvulnerable to external forces, such as climatic conditions or man-madechanges to inflow. Fluctuation in sea level, associated with climatechange, puts the environment, economic development and humansecurity at risk.

Te Caspian Sea has been endoreic inwardly draining since he Pliocene era (abou 5 million years ago),promping some specialiss o rea i as he worlds largeslake. Sudies o is geomorphology and hydrology haverevealed alernaing cycles o rising and alling waerlevels, raising many quesions, scienific or some, moredown-o-earh or hose living on is shores.

In a cenury, beween 1880 and 1977, he level ohe sea dropped our meres (rom -25 meres o -29meres below mean sea level) apar rom shor periods

during which i rose slighly. During his ime localpeople became accusomed o he gradual drop inhe waer level, carrying ou all sors o work on heshores, paricularly afer he Second World War: porinrasrucures, roads and railways, consrucion ohousing and holiday aciliies. In he Sovie Union hedramaic drying up o he Azov Sea, a side-basin o heBlack Sea, which occurred a he same ime, gave riseo genuine ears ha he Caspian or a leas is veryshallow norhern par, which is less han 25 meres deep would in urn shrink significanly. Tis led o hasy,misguided decisions such as he consrucion o a dykein 1983 o close he Kara Bogaz Gol gul.

Fluctuationsin the level of the

Caspian Sea

Te sudden reversal o he rend afer 1977, wih arise in he waer level o abou wo meres, ook manyby surprise and caused widespread problems inseveral areas: flooding o urban aciliies, desruciono roads and railways, damage o indusrialinrasrucure on land and offshore, and desruciono beaches. Several ens o housands o people inhe lowlands o Azerbaijan, Daghesan and he Volgadela had o move. In Azerbaijan alone, damageresuling rom he rise in sea level is esimaed aUS$2bn. In Kazakhsan he encroaching sea hasdirecly affeced some 20 000 square kilomeres oland, including he abandoned oil wells.

Flucuaing waer levels will affec he populaiono he coasline and can cause subsanial economic

damage i appropriae measuremens are no aken. Arise in sea level o 1.2 meres would flood Anzali, anIranian ciy on he low-lying coasal plain in he souh-wes corner o he Caspian, and urn i ino an island,according o orecass. Tis would cos he ciy billionso dollars and cause massive populaion displacemen.Te scenario or rising sea level and subsequenevens could very well repea isel in he oher majorpors around he Caspian Sea including Baku. In heabsence o preparedness, flooding could wreak havocin he capial o Azerbaijan and cause billions o dollarsworh o damage and unold human suffering leadingo possible social unres and conflic.

FORECASTS

Average surface level

-29

-28

-27

-26

-25

1840 1860 1900 1940 19801880 1920 1960 2000

2006

2020 2040 2050

R.K. Klige

B.N.Malinin

-24.8

-25.2

-28.0 -27.9

I. A. Shiklomanov

Variation in sea levelobserved by instruments

Geography Institute of National Science Academy of Azerbaijanand BSU h ydrometeorology department

Source: Panin, G., N., Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis. Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment Report for the Caspian Basin, 2007.

Forecasts calculated by

Metres below sea level

Changing Caspian

Sea level rise in Anzali Lagoon, Iran

Anzali

Esph

and

CaspianSea

Shia

darvish

Tash

Sheyjan

CentralBasin

EastRegion

West Basin

SiahKeshim

Lagoon extention (as of 2002)

Urban areas and buildings

Area cultivated with rice

Fish ponds

Area that will be submerged by 2017with a sea level rise of 1.2 metres

The scenario pedicts a sea level rise of 1.2 metres assuming a constant rise over aperiod of 10 years.

Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, Transboundary Diagnostic AnalysisRevisit, 2007.

IRAN


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22 23

Black

Sea

Aral

Sea

Black

Sea

Aral

Sea

VOLGA BASIN237 km3 (80 %)

N.B.:The size of the arrows isproportional to the volume ofthe average annual discharge

KURAARAKSBASIN

TEREK BASIN7.4 km3 (2.5 %)

17 km3

(6.3 %)

URAL BASIN8.1 km3 (3 %)

CASPIAN

SEA

Source: World Lakes Database, InternationalLake Environment Committee (ILEC), 2005.

Annual discharge into the Caspian Sea

400 km0 200

Figure: Most of the water flowing into the sea comes from coastal rivers currently supplying 300 to 310 km3 a year. The Volga alone accounts for 80% of inflow. But it

has dropped substantially during the 20th century, declining from about 400 km 3in the 1920-30s

to from 260 to 270 km3at present, due to various climatic factors and human activities such as

dams built for hydroelectric energy production. Rainfall over the sea itself is estimated to contribute

130 km3a year. Water loss through infiltration into the ground accounts for less than 5 km3and flow

into the Kara Bogaz Gol gulf about 18 km3, since the destruction of the dyke. Natural evaporation

from the sea is estimated to cause a loss of between 350 and 375 km 3a year. Combining these

estimates for water input (about 440 km3) and loss (about 373 km3) suggests that the water level in

the Caspian Sea should still be rising.

Te acors behind he changes in he level o heCaspian Sea are sill he ocus o debae. Scieniss haveno ruled ou he involvemen o econic (movemeno he Earhs crus below he sea) or geomorphologiccauses (rae o sedimenaion). However, hese wouldappear o have a minor impac in comparison ochanging climaic acors, combined wih he effecso human managemen o surace waer in he Caspianbasin. Mos o he waer flowing ino he sea comesrom coasal rivers. Te quaniy and qualiy o hiswaer, paricula rly ha o he Volga, are key variables

in he balance o he Caspian. o his mus be addedrainall over he sea isel. Waer may also be loshrough infilraion ino he ground and flow ino heKara Bogaz Gol gul, bu hese acors are insignificancompared wih naural evaporaion rom he sea.

Te consrucion o a large number o dams andindusrial aciliies on he rivers eeding he CaspianSea has caused a significan change in he quaniyo waer inflow. Te creaion o a succession o largereservoirs, especially on he lower and middle Volga,has led o significan losses in flow rae due o addiionalevaporaion rom he surace o he waer. Coupled

wih unsusainable waer consumpio n, in paricula rin connecion wih irrigaion, he river flow rae is nowonly 10 per cen o he naural levels.

Uncerainy regarding uure variaions in he sea levelis holding back he developmen o many coasal zonessuiable or holiday ameniies or he consrucion opors. Bu sreches o he Caspian coas are alreadypacked wih unsusainable ouris developmens. TeIranian coasal area, home o some 7 million people, hasregisered a 5 per cen annual increase in populaion over

he pas decade. Demographic pressure has urned hearea close o he sea ino residenial propery, despie herisk o flooding. In 2007 he governmen o urkmenisanapproved he sar o he Avaza naional ourism zone,a special economic space occupying 5 000 hecares onhe shore o he Caspian. I also auhorized he compleemodernizaion o a seapor in urkmenbashi.

Te rising sea level also complicaes urher offshoreoil prospecing, currenly expanding in he norh-eas corner o he sea, off he coass o Kazakhsanand ussia. Te very shallow waer in his par posesproblems or access and saey.

36 E 48 E60N

52N

48N

Astrakhan

Stalingrad

Saratov

Kuybyshev

KazanGorky

CASPIAN

SEA

1934

Main dams

0 200 km

Fragmentation of the Volga river over the last 60 years

CASPIAN

SEA

36 E 48 E

52N

44N

Astrakhan

Volgograd

Saratov

Samara

KazanNiznhyNovgorod

Today

Shoreline of theCaspian Sea in 1934

Balakovo

NaberezhnyeChelny

Izhevsk

Perm

Cheboksary

Kostroma

Rybinsk

BeloyeLake

Moscow

Tver

IvankovskoyeReservoir

Moscow

VerhneVolzhinskiyBeishlot

Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, 2002; UNESCO,2004.1934 1999

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

Sturgeon spawninggrounds on the VolgaHectares

0


13/38

24 25

Rasht

Safid Rud delta

SafidRu

d

IRAN

5

0 50 100 km

Volga delta

Lagan region

Terek River delta

Makhachkala

RUSSIA

Astrakhan

Volga

Terek

Sulak

1

0 50 100 km

Aktau

WesternKazakh coast

Atyrau Town andUral River delta

Tengizoil field

Atyrau

Ural

Emba

2

0 50 100 km

3

Xacmas-Divichi

ApsheronPeninsula

Qobustan

Kura RiverDelta

Lenkaran

Kur

a

Sumgait

Baku

AZERBAIJAN

0 50 100 km

Khazar

Ekerem-Esenguli

Khazar Peninsula

Kara Bogaz Gol

TURKMENISTAN

4

0 50 100 km

Turkmenbashi

TURKMENISTAN

Ramsar

Anzali

Potential inundated areas

if water level rises:

+5 metres

+2 metres

+1 metre

Reference level (-27 metres)

Vulnerable area incase of flooding

Source: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for theCaspian Sea, Caspian Environment Programme, 2002.

Qobustan

KAZAKHSTAN

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Rasht

Baku

Makhachkala

21

3 4

5

Gorgan

Caspian coastline vulnerable to flooding


14/38

26 27

Climate change

he Caspian Sea region is climaically diverseencompassing he basins o he Volga and Ural riversin he Norh, he vas semi-arid and ho arid plains onorhern Kazakhsan and urkmenisan in he eas,and he humid Caucasus and Elburz mounains inhe souh-wes. he Caspian Sea plays an imporanrole in amospheric processes, regional waer balanceand microclimae.

Climaic phenomena in he Caspian are linked ohe Norhern Alanic Oscillaion (flucuaions inamospheric air pressure). Tese variaions affecemperaures, moisure and winer sorms all acrossEurope including he Volga basin, as well as rainall overhe Caspian basin.

As in mos pars o he globe, he climae is changing, wihconsequences or human aciviies and he sea isel.

1.5 6.5 8.5 10.5 12 14 15.5 20 C

Mean annual temperature (C)

Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Europe, Geneva, 2005.

90 170 220 330 500 700 1 300 1 650 mm

Mean annual precipitation (millimetres)

Temperature and precipitation in the Caspian Sea Region

Several severe droughs have affeced various pars o heregion in recen years. Tey seem o confirm scienificmodels, which, in addiion o higher mean emperaures,generally predic more exreme weaher evens. Droughsaffec boh crop producion and he healh o livesock.For example, he economically imporan Karakulsheep o urkmenisan, which are raised or woolproducion, are sensiive o hea sress. In addiion o heloss o agriculural produciviy, droughs can increasehe requency and severiy o fires, which may desroygrassland and crops.

Conrasing rainall rends have been observed in henorh and souh. Whereas rainall over ussia hasincreased over he las cenury, already dry areas suchas he coass o urkmenisan have become even drier.Changes are also visible a he coas o Iran ha becomesdrier wih climae change. Dus sorms pick up large

amouns o sal and dus as hey pass over he Kara-Kumdeser and he Caspian shore, deposiing i in he Volgavalley where i impairs he eri liy o arable land.

Bu he availabiliy o reshwaer, on which many secorso he economy and human well-being depend, isalso linked o more remoe climaic processes. I glaciersin he Caucasus and Elburz mounains recede and heperiods o snow cover become shorer, as has been hecase in recen years, less waer will be available or use inirrigaion and homes.

Climae change has increased he requency andinensiy o weaher-relaed evens and naural disaserssuch as floods, droughs, landslides, avalanches, debrisflows and mud flows. For example, in he las 30 yearsmudflows in he erek river basin in he norh-easernCaucasus have occurred almos annually. Te mos

Precipitation increaserecorded in 2010

Strong increase intemperature during thecold season (more than 4.5C) for 2070-2099 period

Severe desertification

Precipitation decreaserecorded in 2010

Risk of flooding due tostorm surges and sealevel fluctuation

Sources: Caspian Environment Programme, Transboundary Diagnostic AnalysisRevisit, 2007; Panin, G. N., Climate Change and Vulnerability AssessmentReport for the Caspian Basin, 2006; Kuderov, T., Climate Change andVulnerability Assessment Report for Kazakhstan, 2006, and Sea ice cover inthe Caspian and Aral Seas, 2004; Elguindi N. and Giorgi F. Simulating futureCaspian sea level changes using regional climate model outputs, 2006; GlobalForest Watch, on-line database, accessed on May 2010; Philippe Rekacewicz,Vital Caspian Graphics, 2006; International Research Institute for Climate andSociety, maps on line, accessed november 2010; De Martino and Novikov,Environment and Security, the case of the Eastern Caspian Region, 2008. .

River runoff increasing

Reduction of waterresources due totemperature increase

On atmosphere

On land and sea

On sea ice

On water basins

Boundaries of driftingice during severewinters, late 1990s

Boundaries of driftingice during moderatewinters, late 1990s

Ice extent (includingdrifting ice) as of01 February 2010

Note: Precipitation variations indicate the increase or decrease betweenAugust-October 2010 and August-Octobers mean for 1979-2000.

Coastal zone defined by the Caspian Environment Programme

Aktau

TurkmenbashiBaku

Selected impacts of climate changein the Caspian basin

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

Makhachkala

Atyrau

Astrakhan

IRAN

RUSSIA

Tbilisi

Yerevan

Rasht

0 100 200 km

KAZAKHSTAN

Terek

Caspian Sea

Araks

Kura

Volga

GorganSari


15/38

28 29

Regional land degradation desrucive mudflows were recorded in 2000 and wereperhaps linked o persisen above-average summeremperaures. In Sepember 2002 he Kolka glacier nearMoun Kazbek, he highes peak in he easern Caucasus,collapsed. Te waer which had accumulaed inside andbelow he glacier riggered an avalanche ha ravelledmore han 24 kilomeres a very high speed killing over120 people. In 2003 a flood in he Ismayilli-Gobusanregion o Azerbaijan affeced 31 500 people.

Finally, scieniss noe ha human-induced climaechange, which has become eviden in recen decades, isnow playing a major par in he flucuaion o he CaspianSea level, as well as changing he enire ecosysem.Preliminary research under he Caspian Environmenal

Programme linked several environmenal phenomenao climae change, among ohers unoreseen algae bloomin 2005, changes in ood chain and he morphology,increasing groundwaer saliniy and diminishing weland.

The human factor

Human aciviies can have a powerul inluence onhe local climae. Widespread irrigaion neworks anddams are depleing he soil, exposing i o erosion.Ground waer supplies are hereby reduced, whichcan cause he whole waer regime o change. his caninluence local emperaures and consequenly heevaporaion poenial.

Oil and gas exploraion aciviies can no only causelocalised polluion o air, soil and sea, bu also emissionso greenhouse gases such as mehane (CH

4) and carbon

dioxide (CO2) ha add o he global greenhouse effec

and lead o warming o he amosphere. I is esimaedha on and offshore ossil uel producion in he Caspianarea emis 15 o 20 million onnes o CO

2-equivalen

annually. Te expeced rise in uel producion will urherincrease greenhouse gas emissions unless appropriaecounermeasures are aken.

Uncertain weather

I is difficul o predic how climaic changes a aglobal level will affec he climae o a paricularregion. Alhough climae scenarios commonly suggeswarming and increased rainal l over he norh o heCaspian and is viciniy, wih lower rainall o he souh,here is considerable uncerainy as o he influence ohe sea, he effecs o he complex opography, cloudcover, and oher acors.

Te criical poin is ha here is no way o predicingwheher he climae sysem will reac in a linear way or i iwill suddenly collapse in one way or anoher once a criical

hreshold is reached. As he concenraion o greenhousegases in he amosphere increases, he emperaure in heEuropean par o he Caspian region will coninue o rise,a leas a firs. Some researchers have recenly expressedears ha he warm Gul Sream curren in he AlanicOcean may slow down due o he changes in he Arcicenvironmen and oceanic circulaion. As a resul, heregional emperaures could drop significanly creaingan exremely harsh climae.


16/38

30 31

3

Inthe 1930s, the Soviet state launched a succession of Herculean

public works projects, all over the Soviet Union, to tame nature.Their aim was to facilitate access to resources and improve industrial

and agricultural productivity at any cost. Gigantic dams, enormous canalsand vast irrigation systems were consequently built. These massiveinfrastructures had a significant effect on nearby ecosystems, ofteninflicting lasting damage. The Caspian Sea is no exception and the workcarried out in its vicinity has jeopardised its fragile ecological balance.

Numerous dams and hydroelecric power saions haveragmened he grea rivers o he Volga. Tis has aleredheir hydrological regime and caused variaions in he level

o he sea and he inensiy o sedimen ranspor, in heVolga dela and a is mouh. I has also cu off he caviar-producing surgeons rom heir spawning grounds. Te101-kilomere Volga-Don canal, which opened in 1952,links he Caspian o he worlds seas. Afer negoiaing asysem involving some 15 locks, hundreds o housandso ships have, over he las 50 years, ranspored oil andraw maerials rom he Caspian all over he Sovie Union,and o markes in Europe and he Unied Saes.

In Azerbaijan he lower reaches and mouh o he Kurariver were no more orunae. Te developmen o avas irrigaion sysem, covering more han 100 square

Big projects,big consequences

kilomeres and lef wihou mainenance or manyyears led o he desruci on o ar mland an d pol luedmuch o he sea along he coasline wih pesicides andheavy meals, a siuaion aggravaed by he presenceupsream o he Kura-Araks sysem o giganic indusrialaciliies (Alaverdi and Megri-Kajaran-Kaan in Armenia,usavi-Madneuli-bilisi in Georgia).

o his lis we migh add oher plans, which never cameo ruiion, such as he projec o ranser waer romhe Caspian or he Ob and Irych rivers o he AralSea. However urkmenisan is planning o exend heKara-Kum (currenly urkmenbashi) canal by abou300 kilomeres as ar as he por o urkmenbashi

(ormer Krasnovodsk). Te canal, already in very poorrepair, would require a huge amoun o work o operaenormally. I connecs he Amu-Daria river o he wesernregions o he counry, exending over 1 300 kilomeres.

The disappearing sea

Comparing a series o saellie images rom differenperiods a Caliornian hydrologis discovered in 1983 haa huge whie spo had aken he place o he vas KaraBogaz Gol gul (lierally dark gulle in urkmen) in hesouh-eas corner o he Caspian. Te gul had simplydisappeared. Wha, he wondered, had happened? Howcould such a large volume o waer have evaporaed injus a ew years, only o be replaced by a saly dusbowl?

As Frank Weserman relaes in his book Ingenieurs van deziel, i wasn he firs ime he Kara Bogaz Gol gul had beena he cenre o a mysery. For more han hree cenuries i

has inspired exravagan ales old by local sailors. In 1727,or insance, a ussian navigaor ried o explore he gul,saring rom he Caspian Sea, bu gave up, because his crewsaw a oaming gully, ino which he sea waer was rushingwih unold orce, and reused o go any urher. A cenurylaer, in 1847, Lieuenan Jerebsov, a mariime explorer andcarographer o he sar, underook o map he conourso he Caspian, discovering, according o KonsaninPausovsky, he gloomy coasline and enrance o he gul.Many raders and sailors have given accouns o heir errora he enry o he Kara Bogaz Gol gul. Awesome aleswere common, peppered wih claims ha he inle was awhirlpool leading o a gul w here he waer disappeared

Sources: A. N. Varushchenko, S. A. Lukyanova, G. D. Solovieva, A.N.Kosarev and A. V. Kurayev, Evolution of the Gulf of Kara-Bogaz-Gol inthe past century , in Kamlesh P. Lulla, Lev V. Dessinov, Cynthia A. Evans,Patricia W. Dickerson and Julie A. Robinson, Dynamic Earth Environments:Remote Sensing Observations from Shuttle-Mir Missions , John Wiley &Sons, Inc., 2000 (figure adapted from Dzens-Litovskiy, 1959).

N.B.: The current level of the Kara Bogaz Gol is the same as in 1930.

BEKDASHPENINSULA

KENDERLY-KAYASANPLATEAU

CAPE KULAN - GURLAN

SOVIET BAY

KARA BOGAZGOL

CASPIANSEA

KARASUKHUTSKAYA SPIT

AYMAN-TUBEKSPIT

OMCHALI PENINSULA

JANGY-SUSPIT

Gypsum salt flats

Exposed part ofupper layer of salt

Level of waters edge in 1956

Shoreline of sea and bay in 1930

0 50 km

A moment in the life of Kara Bogaz Gol


17/38

32 33

Source: Earthshots - Satellite images for environmental change, United States Geological Survey (USGS): Kara Bogaz Gol, Turkmenistan 1972, 1987.

KARA BOGAZ

GOL

1972 1987

Salt

Dried area

CASPIAN

SEA

Salt

Dried area

CASPIAN

SEA

KARA BOGAZ

GOL

When the Kara Bogaz Gol vanished

0 30 km

Karshi

Aim

Say-Depe

Karabogazhel

Bekdash

SevervykhPromyslov Ozero

Amandor

GeksayKadhzan

Karadzhari

Kadzhi-SuMausu-Taudy

Yangi-Su

Kyzylkup Taraba

Omchaly

KARA BOGAZ

GOL

CASPIAN

SEA

End of 1990sand reappeared!

Salt

Source: MDA Earthsat and DigitalGlobe, 2004.0 30 km

ino he dephs. Boas sank here wihou race andfishermen who venured here were swallowed up anddissolved, as i hey had allen ino an acid bah. Marinerswould avoid a any price he saly chue ha made somuch noise hey were araid o being dragged downino hell. Bu i ook more han is siniser repuaion oimpress Lieuenan Jerebsov. He decided o carry onhrough he amous narrows and subsequenly describedin his diary how he ship was carried orward, shaken byhe powerul curren, unil i finally reached an expanse ocalm and silen waer. He discovered a saly world andcolonies o pink flamingos.

Bu should we conclude ha sailors in he pas knew hahe Caspian Sea was subjec o sudden changes in level?As he waer in he Kara Bogaz Gol gul evaporaes aserhan i can be replaced i is always a ew meres lower hanis larger neighbour, which may a imes have urned henarrow defile ino a veriable waerall. Be ha as i may,much o he guls misorunes are due o he scale andspeed a which is level flucuaed and he seps aken by

he Sovie auhoriies o conrol variaions. Te scienisswere unable o agree on he reasons or he drop in sealevel ha was roughly equivalen o a 10 per cen reducionin is surace area beween 1930 and 1977. Among hepossible explanaions, one was paricularly avoured byhe auhoriies in he 1970s. Te gul, hey mainained,was a useless caldron or evaporaion, an insaiablemouh swallowing up he precious waer o he Caspianand obviously o blame. For he waer managers his wasa poliical issue. Kara Bogaz Gol gul should be allowedo die a heros deah, like a soldier a he ron. Te lagoonshould be sacrificed so ha he waer, now so rare, could beused elsewhere, said he depuy miniser in charge o waerand oress. Te suggesion promped a disagreemen wihhe Minisry o Chemical Indusry, which was exploiinghe mirabilie ound here, he region being he Sovie salindusrys main cenre.

I was decided o close he passage. Work proceeded inFebruary 1980 despie he ac ha he level o he Caspianhad sared o rise again hree years earlier.

A century of outflow into Kara Bogaz Gol, km3/ year

1930

Source: Frank Westerman,Ingenieurs van de ziel, Atlas, Amsterdam, 2002.

1941 1970 1978 2000

The channel between the Caspian Sea and Kara Bogaz Gol was closed between 1982 and1992. Water stopped flowing into the Kara Bogaz Gol which dried up within three years.

21.8

km3/year12.4

km3/year 10.6km3/year

7.1

km3/year2.4

km3/year


18/38

34 35

CASPIAN

SEA

1972 1987

KARA BOGAZ

GOL

DAM

Shorelinein 1972

CASPIAN

SEA

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administartion (NASA).

The inlet to the Kara Bogaz Gol before and after construction of the dam

KARA BOGAZ

GOL

Te Sovie engineers apparenly assumed i was only aemporary change. Only a narrow canal was lef allowinga small amoun o waer o pass, hanks o which he waer

in he Kara Bogaz Gol gul was expeced o las a urher25 years. Much o everyones surprise he gul dried up10 imes aser han had been orecas by he WaerProblems Insiue and by auumn 1983 i was all over.Te pink flamingos died in droves, he litle brine shrimpon which hey ed having disappeared. Te lagoonurned ino a vas deser covered wih a 50-cenimerelayer o precipiaed sal, which was picked up by hewind and blown or hundreds o k ilomeres, as ar as heChernoziem (erile soil) area o ussia, raising he salconen o he soil. Wih he closure o he srai, he gulalso sopped acing as a naural hydrological regulaion

sysem (keeping he sal conen a a relaively low level).Te ensuing increase in he sal conen o he souhernpar o he Caspian, o levels exceeding 15 grams per lire,

had disasrous consequences or he surgeon populaion.In he spring o 1992, in view o he scale o he disaser,urkmenisan, which had jus declared is independence,decided o recover he Kara Bogaz Gol gul rom hedeser. I hereore desroyed he dyke, resoring heconnecion beween he sea and he gul.

In he meanime closing he gul had resuled in hecollapse o he sal indusry. Te area around he KaraBogaz Gol gul neverheless remains he worlds biggessource o he raw maerial or he chemical indusry.Exploiaion sared a he beginning o he 20h cenury

along airly radiional lines and only swiched omore indusrial echniques in he early 1930s. Annualproducion capaciy is enormous: 400 000 onnes omirabilie (a hydrous sodium sulae mineral) (used inhe glass indusry, eed or livesock and deergens),100 000 onnes o bischofie (a deolian used ormachine-harvesing o coton), 35 000 onnes oepsomie (used in paper-making, anning o realeaher and he exile indusry), 10 000 onnes oglauberie (pharmaceuical indusry) and 20 000 onneso sodium chloride (cooking sal). From he 1930sonwards he drop in he level o he Caspian and hechange in he chemical condiions led o deerioraionin he qualiy o he sal. As he brine hickened iacceleraed precipiaion o he sal as sodium chloride,

a less valuable produc han sodium sulphae. In he1940s and 1950s he indusry swiched rom heexploiaion o open-air reserves o undergroundresources rapped below several meres o sedimen.

Te sory almos came o a happy end. Afer desrucion ohe dam, he waer flowed in a a rae o 700 cubic meresa second and i only ook a ew monhs o refill he lagoon(during which ime he level o he Caspian happenedo go on rising). Te crus o sal dissolved and he pinkflamingos, ducks and pelicans reurned. Te Kara BogazGol gul almos compleely recovered is ecologicalbalance. Only he chemical indusry, which depended ona sysem o managemen ha had disappeared, did nosurvive his unusual episode in he lie o he lagoon.

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Gorgan

Rasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Gorgan

Rasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

Vo

lga

SafidR

ud

Ku

ra

Vo

lga

SafidR

ud

Ku

ra

Source: Caspian Environment Programme, 2002.0 200km

10.0 to 12.8

12.8 to 13.013.0 to 14.014.0 to 350.0

g/l

00.0 to 10.0

Sea surface salinity

0 200km

SummerWinter


19/38

36 37

4

Oil slicks glittering on the surface of the sea and thousands of

hectares of soil penetrated by leakage from abandoned wells arejust part of the pollution that people living around the Caspian

Sea must endure. In addition there are various industries, particularlychemicals and mining, large-scale irrigated farming and untreatedhousehold waste. Combined with the effects of the oil, all these forms ofpollution have a serious impact on the well-being of humans and wildlife.

Many opporuniies are offered by he Caspian Sea region.I is imporan ha hey are handled wih care in order omainain he rich biological and mineral resources overa long ime. Te naural wealh o he region around heCaspian Sea in mineral resources also involves high meal

concenraions. Indusrial aciviies, in paricular mining,are raising he meal concenraion in sedimens o levelsexceeding permissible limis.

Te increased aciviy on oil drilling plaorms and heexension o ranspor opions is imporan or economicdevelopmen and employmen. Bu i i is no managedsusainably i is bound o heighen he risk o accidens asea. Exploiaion o he offshore reserves in he norhernpar o he sea, where he waer is very shallow, involvesspecific risks. Depending on he season (ice orms insome places in winer) access may be very difficul in heeven o an acciden.

The marksof human

activity

AZOV

SEA

Abkhazia

Russia

Turkey

Iran

Georgia

Armenia

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Odessa

Ceyhan

MEDITERRANEANSEA

BLACKSEA

CASPIAN

SEA

Azerbaijan

Cyprus

Uzbekistan

Sebastopol

Supsa

Baku

Neka

Varna

Constanta

BLACKSEA

AZOV

SEA

CASPIAN

SEA

Russia

Ukraine

Romania

Bulgaria

Moldova

Turkey

Syria

Iran

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Armenia

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

To China

Kazakhstan

Iraq

Chechnya

Chechnya

Odessa

Ceyhan

Sebastopol

MEDITERRANEANSEA

Abkhazia

Supsa

BakuVarna

Constanta

Bosphorus andDardanelles

Bosphorus andDardanelles

Novorossiysk

Novorossiysk

Turkmenbashi

Turkmenbashi

67

62

7

4

2

3

Arrows are proportional to the volume ofoil exportation (in million tonnes per year).

51

28

24

38

6.5

7.6

5.1

6

3

3 1.5

2009

Projections2015

0 500 km

Note: Russias forecasts not available,even though the flux will remains active.

Note: Russias exports in the map refer to 2007.

Russia

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Oil terminal

Forecasts not available

Source: vv, Oil Flows and Export Capacity in the Caspian Sea and Black Sea Regions, 2008; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010; EIA on line database, 2008.

To China 9

0

Million tonnes per year

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

BTC pipeline

BTCCPC

CPC pipeline

BTC pipeline

CPC pipeline

Exports through selected pipelines

2002

2007

2009

2015Projections

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ

AND LAURA MARGUERITTE

Updated in September 2010

Oil exports via The Black and Mediterranean Seas


20/38

38 39

Oil production

Thousand barrels per day

0

Source: BP, Statistical Reviewof World Energy, 2009.

20082004 2006200220001998

600

400

200

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Figure: Oil production in Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

The region has significantly expended its

oil and gas production, and it is set to grow.

The increases in outputs so far have been

associated with, and encouraged by, an

emerging diversity of export routes and

markets, supported by large investments.

Unil now, however, in he absence o paricularaccidens or incidens, he land-based aciviies ohe oil and gas indusry have had a much more severeimpac on he environmen han marine aciviy. Inparicular he growh in hydrocarbon-relaed aciviyhas negaively affeced he environmenal balance owhole areas hroughou he region. In he pas, hehydrocarbon indusries generaed oxic by-producs,which in many places w ere no properly sored or havealready been dispersed ino he surroundings, as orexample in some pars o he Absheron peninsula andaround he ciy o Akau.

Te crude oil and gaseous condensaes rom heNorh Caspian oilfields have a very high sulphur

conen. Te refining process, in paricular o produceliquid peroleum gas, leaves large mounds o sulphurdeposied in he open where i conaminaes hesurrounding environmen. Large amouns o oxicgas are released ino he amosphere oo. Due o oxicpolluion some setlemens even had o be relocaed. InKazakhsan more han 10 million onnes o sulphur haveaccumulaed near he engiz oilfield, as a by-produco crude oil exracion. Tis polluion has orced heevacuaion o wo villages Karaon, Sarykamysh andKen-Aral 20-40 kilomeres rom he oilfield.

Ofen, once he oil exracion aciviy sops, waseremains and consiues a hazard. In Kazakhsan here are19 oilfields wih 1485 oil wells in he coasal zone o heCaspian Sea, including 148 in he flooded zone. Drillingechnology in he 1960s o 1980s did no accoun or hecorrosive naure o seawaer and is effecs on meal casingand lay head. Over ime, wells have become considerablesources o marine polluion. Some 600 000 hecares o

land in he Ayrau and Mangysau Oblass o Kazakhsanare pollued wih a hick layer o oil peneraing he soilo a deph 8 o 10 meres and polluing he ground waer.

Abou 30 000 hecares o soil on Azerbaijans Absheronpeninsula is pollued by oil producs and various orms oindusrial wase. In 2008 he World Bank approved hreeprojecs under he Absheron ehabiliaion Programme(AP) ha will improve environmenal condiions.

0

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010.

300

200

100

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

0

300

200

100


400

Consumption

Net expo rts N.B.: To ta l h ei gh t o f col umns repr es en ts to ta l p rodu ct ion.

2002

2001

2000

1999

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2003

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan


2002

2001

2000

1999

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2003 20092009

Oil production, consumption and export


21/38

40 41

Absheron

Bagdad

Ahvaz

Ispahan

CASPIAN

SEA

Vo

lga

Volg

a

Volgograd

AstrakhanElista

Stavropol

Makhachkala

Derbent

Baku

Sumgait

Rasht

Sari

Bender

GasanKuli

Turkmenbashi

Atyrau

Aktau

Tbilisi

Yerevan

Tskhinvali

Aktobe

Groznyi

Vladikavkaz

Nakhichevan

Tabriz

Tehran

Qazvin

KARA

BOGAZ

GOL

Ramsar

AZERBAIJANARMENIA

NAKHICHEVAN(AZER.)

IRAQIRAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Ural

Kura

Araks

Terek

Gyzyl-Arbat

Balkanabat

Dubendi

Khazar

MERCURYWASTE SITE

MAYAKNUCLEARFACILITY

WASTE SITE

KOSHKAR-ATATAILING POND

MINING SITE

TENGIZOIL FIELD

TUHLAYA BALKASEDIMENTATION TANK

KAPUSTINYAR

SAY UTES

Ashkabad

GEORGIA

VOLGA-DON CANAL

KARA-KUM CANAL

AZGYR

RUSSIA

IRAN

ARAL

SEA

Gorgan

IODINE ANDBROMINE PLANT

RADIOACTIVE WASTE

Babol

Bautino

Hazards in and around the Caspian

UZENOIL FIELD

0

200

500

1,000

3,000

4,000

2,000

Topography, metres

Below sea level

Oil and gas drilling

Area under explorationfor oil and gas (high p otential)

Oil wells flooded and leaking

Polluted sea (oil, pesticides,chemicals, heavy metals orbacteriological pollution)

Polluted soils and land degradation

Polluted rivers (industry andmunicipal sewage water)

Land-based source of river pollution(mainly heavy industries)

Soil salinisation

Projected off-shore pipelines

Identified poorly stored hazardousindustrial waste site or pollutingindustrial activities

Former nuclear testing site

Main direction of sandstormcausing salt transfers towardarable lands of the Volga region

0 200 400 km

MAP BY PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ - APRIL 2006Updated in 2011

Sources: National Caspian Action Plan of Azerbaijan, 2002; National Action Programme on Enhancement of the Environment of the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan2003-2012; Environmental Performance Review of Kazakhstan, UNECE, 2000; Environmental Performance Review of Azerbaijan, UNECE, 2003; Study for SafeManagement of Radioactive Sites in Turkmenistan, NATO, 2005; Environment and Security: Transforming Risks into Cooperation, Case of Central Asia,UNEP/UNDP/OSCE, 2003 ; Global Alarm: Dust and Sandstorms from the Worlds Drylands, UNCCD, 2001; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010.


22/38

42 43

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Gorgan

Rasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

GorganRasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

GorganRasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

IRAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

IRAN

RUSSIA RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

Emba

Emba

Atr

ak

Atr

ak

Volg

a

Volg

a

Kura

KuraAr

aks

Arak

s

Arak

s

Source: Interpretation of Caspian Sea Sediment Data, Caspian Environment Programme, 2002.

0 200 km

Sampling areas

DDTconcentration above ERL (1 600 pg/g)

Lindaneconcentration above ERL (300 pg/g)

The Effects Range Low (ERL) is an indicator of concentrations above which adverse effects occur (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Marine Sediment Quality Guideline Values).

Sampling areas

Nickelconcentration above ERL (21 g/g)

N.B.: Maximum nickel concentration inanalyses measured was 68 g/g.

Sampling areas

Chromiumconcentration above ERL (81 g/g)

N.B.: Maximum chromium concentration inanalyses measured was 128 g/g.

0 200 km 0 200 kmNickel ChromiumPesticides

Pesticides and heavy metals in sediments

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Gorgan

Rasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

GorganRasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Atyrau

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

GorganRasht

Baku

Derbent

Makhachkala

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

IRAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

IRAN

RUSSIA RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

Emba

Emba

Atr

ak

Atr

ak

Volg

a

Volg

a

Kura

KuraAr

aks

Arak

s

Arak

s

0 200 km

Sampling areas

Arsenicconcentration above ERL (8.2 g/g)

Sampling areas

Mercuryconcentration above ERL (0.15 g/g)

Sampling areas

Copperconcentration above ERL (34 g/g)

0 200 km 0 200 kmMercury CopperArsenic

Note: Maximum mercury concentration inanalyses measured was 0.45 g/g

Note: Maximum copper concentration inanalyses measured was 57.6 g/g

Note: Maximum arsenic concentration inanalyses measured was 22.6 g/g

Source: Interpretation of Caspian Sea Sediment Data, Caspian Environment Programme, 2002; Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Revisit, 2007

The Effects Range Low (ERL) is an indicator of concentrations above which adverse effects occur (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Marine Sediment Quality Guideline Values).


23/38

44 45

Source: CEP, Caspian Water Quality Monitoring and ActionPlan for Areas of Pollution Concern, 2009.

800 000Tonnes per year

150 00085 000

5 000

Discharge of selected pollutants

RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

Arak

s

Volg

a

RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

Arak

s

RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

RUSSIA

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

KAZAKHSTAN

Volg

a

Atr

ak

Kura

Emba

AZERBAIJAN

Imported problems

Te Volga, he main river flowing ino he Caspian, bringspollued waer rom locaions as ar as 3 500 kilomeresaway. Nearly 45 per cen o he ussian indusry and50 per cen o is agriculural producion are locaed inhe vas river basin. Inadequaely reaed wase waer among ohers rom he enire Moscow urban area andindusrial cenres such as Ekaerinburg and Perm spillsino ribuaries o he Volga. Any wase ha does no silup behind a dam or soak ino he Volga esuary ends upin he Caspian.

Te siuaion a he mouh o he Kura-Araks iver

on he Absheron Peninsula is similar, wih a risingpolluion load accumulaing on he way hroughGeorgia and Armenia. I hen combines wih he waserom wo-hirds o Azerbaijans indusrial producionand more han a hird o is populaion. Te wasewaerreamen aciliies servinghe major urban areas o Bakuand Sumgai are no up o heask, unable o cope wih herapidly growing populaion.

Air qualiy has generallyimproved in recen years,mainly because indusrialproducion has droppeddrasically since he collapse ohe Sovie economic sysem.Bu increasing emissionsrom he expanding oil andgas secor, and a growing

number o cars in ciies, noonly affec he healh o localpeople bu conribue o heaccumulaion o greenhousegases in he amosphere, inurn driving observed rendsin global warming.

Te ype and severiy opolluion mus be deduced

rom analysis o daa rom seleced cases. Tey providean indicaion o accumulaed polluion. For example,races o he pesicide DD in fish issue and seals leado he conclusion ha DD may be sill in use despiean inernaional agreemen o sop is applicaion, wihhe risks i involves or animals and humans. Azerbaijan,Iran and Kazakhsan have raified or adhered o heConvenion on Persisen Organic Polluans and ussiahas signed i. Te convenion seeks o ban chemicals haare absorbed by aty issue and accumulae here, as is hecase or DD, enabling hem o ravel long disances. Tedrasically resriced use o DD raises a new problem:he unused maerial is sockpiled wihou he necessarysaey measures, and as such poses an addiional healhand environmenal hazard.

Te accumulaion o polluion rom all hese differensources and he ac ha several counries are involvedmakes i paricularly difficul o manage.

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

AZERBAIJAN

TURKMENISTAN

AZERBAIJAN

IRAN

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

Astrakhan

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Baku

Makhachkala

Astrakhan

Aktau

Turkmenbashi

Baku

Makhachkala

Khazar Khazar

GuilanGuilan

0 200 km

CadmiumMercury

5 640

1 000

100

Mercury

Cadmium

Source: Caspian Regional Thematic Center(CRTC) for Pollution Control: coastal and offshoreindustry, Azerbaijan, Febuary 2003.

Kilogrammes

Discharge of selected pollutants


24/38

46 47

H

H

H

H

H

YeniSura-khani

Bina

Garachukhur

Ahmadli YeniGunashli

Gunashli

Zigh

Surakhani

AmirjanBakikhanov

Bulbula

Sabunchu Yeni

Ramana

Rasul -Zadeh

Darnagul

Montin

Black City

IchariShahar

CaspianSea

Boyukshor

KubinkaYasamal

Sulutapa

Khirdalan

Bilajari

Badamdar

Babil

Shikh

YeniYasamal

HaziAslanov

Keshla

Khojasanlake

Airport

G. Aliyev

Ferry portOld oil

terminal

Military port

Commercial port

South port

1

1

1

2

Sources: pollution map from the Azerbaijans Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources; Baku streetdirectory 4th edition, Baku, Heron Company, 2006 ; topographic soviet 50k map of Baku, 1985; Google earth;Texas A&M university department of ocenography, 1997; Az ersu Joint Stock Company, Hovsan WastewaterTreatment Plant Sea Outfall Construction, 2008; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 2006.

H Big hotels

Railway stations

Bus station terminal

Big commercial malls

Government buildings

University

Foreign embassies

Main city roads

High speed roads

Projected bridgeacross the gulf

Seafront promenade

Destructuredhistoric town

New constructionbuilding areas(from 1990 to 2006)

Mixed constructionbuilding areas (as in 1985)

Main industrial areas

Big soviet blocs offlats

Oil extraction areas

Dead sea zone

Offshore oil rigs

Projected wastewatertreatment plant...

... and sea outfall pipeline

Gentrified areas

Parks and green areas

Mud volcanoesDangerous mud flows

Heavily polluted landand waters due to oilextraction, industrialwaste and mining

2

Inner old city

Urban development

Hazards andconsequences onenvironment

0 1 2 KmThe Azerbaijan capital Baku


25/38

48 49

Te gian Kashagan offshore field was discovered inJuly 2000, 80 kilomeres souh o A yrau. I is he largesCaspian offshore field and one o he larges fieldsdiscovered anywhere in he world in he pas 30 years.Named afer a prominen 19h cenury Kazakh poe,i covers an area 75 kilomeres long and 45 wide. TeKashagan field was ormed 350 million years ago inshallow warm sea condiions, lying below sal fields a adeph o 4 000 o 4 500 meres. Te oilfield is esimaed o

conain reserves o abou 38 billion barrels, 9 o 13 billiono which can be exraced using he gas re-injecionmehod. Analyss hope ha Kashagan will prove o beone o he worlds larges offshore fields and also providea reliable indicaor o he Caspians poenial oil supply(German, 2008). Is oil is characerised by very highpressure (800 bars), emperaure (125C), hydrogensulphide conen (15-20%), and he presence o naurallyoccurring oxic subsances (mercapanes). Tis creaesmajor logisical difficulies and could even urn a smallemergency ino a large environmenal disaser. For

example, in 2000 and 2001, minor emergencies duringexploraory drilling reporedly led o he discharge opolluans ino he sea. In Augus 2007 he Minisryo Environmenal Proecion o Kazakhsan soppedexploraion o he Kashagan oilfield due o allegedviolaions o environmenal legislaion. On 14 January2008 a new Memorandum o Undersanding was signedbeween he companies in he Kashagan con sorium.

Te esimaed cos o developing he Kashagan field islikely o rise rom US$50 billion o more han US$136billion, wih he sar o operaions now delayed rom 2008o 2013. Oil and gas producion a he Kashagan field willbe based on several arificial islands, currenly being bui l.An underwaer pipeline will ranspor hydrocarbons ohe Boloshak oil and gas erminal 30 kilomeres romAyrau. I is esimaed he oilfield will operae or 30 o40 years. I all goes according o plan Kashagan oil oupushould increase rom an iniial 75 000 barrels a day o1.2 million barrels a day (more han 55 million onnes a

year) a he peak o produc ionin 2015-2045. For he sakeo comparison, in 2006 oaloil producion in Kazakhsanamouned o 1.43 millionbarrels a day, wih 0.22 millionbarrels daily consumpion (BP,2007). Overall, in he comingdecades, offshore energyproducion in he Kazakh secoro he Caspian Sea could jumprom almos zero o more han88 million onnes o oil and80 billion cubic meres o gasa year (Ayrau Oil and Gas,2007). Bauino Base, locaedin he Mangysau province265 kilomeres souh o heKashagan field, is he mainmariime suppor base and oil-wase recycling cenre.

Northern Caspian oilfields Kashagan and Tengiz, Kazakhstan

To Europe Atyrau

Boloshak

Kulsary

Astrakhan

Kashagan

Kurmangazy

Tengiz

Zamyany

North Caspian giant oilfields

0 50 100 Km

Sources: EIA maps, 2002; Friends of theEarth mission report: Kazakhstan, 2007;UNEP, Environment and security. Thecase of the Eastern Caspian region, 2008.

Residential areaspotentially affected bypetrochemical industries

Oil and gas

3m

5m

5m

10m

Environmental and health risks

Fields Environmentalsensitive areas

Main pipelines

Main industrialinfrastructure

Tanker terminal

engiz, anoher gian oilfield (size 19 x 21 km) wasdiscovered in 1979, bu large-scale exploiaion only saredin 1993 due o echnology problems similar o hoseencounered a Kashagan. Te engiz field is expeced oconain abou 3 billion onnes o oil and will be exploiedover he nex wo decades. In 2006 oil oupu rom heengiz field amouned 291 000 barrels a day. By 2008-2010he volume o oil producion is scheduled o double. A newprocessing plan is planned o come online by hen.

One o he main problems encounered on engiz isha sulphur accumulaes during oil and gas exraciona he rae o more han 5 000 onnes a day. Ye he oalsorage capaciy currenly is 9 million onnes (Minisry oEnvironmen Proecion o he epublic o Kazakhsan

2007). Tis means ha wih lower demand or sulphurand ewer expors he heap o sulphur sored in he openair may coninue o increase, promping concerns amonglocal auhoriies and in he communiy. Te Kazakhenvironmenal auhoriies have recenly imposed aUS$309 million fine on engizChevroil (CO) hefield operaor and a Chevron-led venure or breaches oenvironmenal regulaions including sockpiling sulphur.

In 2006 local auhoriies and CO carried ou anassessmen o environmenal and healh effecs osoring sulphur in he open air a engiz. Te Kazakh

Koshkar-Aa is one o he larges indusrial ailings in

he world occupying an area o approximaely 77 squarekilomeres. Locaed in a naural depression abou 5kilomeres rom he ouskirs o he Kazakh own oAkau and 8 kilomeres rom he shore o he CaspianSea, he enormous dump is a serious environmenal andhealh hazard.

Beore indusrial operaions sared in he 1960s, heKoshkar-Aa hollow was a periodic lake ri ch in naural sal,making i unsuiable or arming. Te discovery o vasuranium deposis in he desers o wesern Kazakhsanlead o he esablishmen and rapid developmen o a

Insiue o Oil and Gas admited ha increased sulphuraccumulaion and sorage could raise environmenalpressures, and risks or public and occupaional healh.Wih he inroduci on o sricer env ironmenal arges,modernizaion o producion mehods and aciliies,gas flaring on he engiz field was reduced rom 1 800million cubic meres in 1999 o 420 million cubicmeres in 2006 (CO Environmenal Bullein 2006).Furher cus in his ype o polluion are planned afer2008, when a new plan w ill sar producing granulaedand block sulphur using he deposis sored on heengiz oilfield. Finally he new ecological legislaion(Environmenal Code o Kazakhsan 2007), coupledwih sricer enorcemen, will also conribu e oimproving he siuaion in he region.

On he oher hand changes a Kashagan and engizindicae ha he Kazakh auhoriies perhaps ollowinghe ussian example on he Sakhalin-2 oilfields inSiberia seem o be sepping up pressure on energymulinaionals operaing in he Caspian region.

e.: Te Environmen and Securiy: ransormingrisks ino cooperaion. Te Case o he Easern Caspianegion, 2008

uranium exracion and processing indusry. A is peak in

he 1980s Kazakhsan was producing more han a hirdo Sovie uranium, wih more han 30 uranium mines.

Te Koshkar-Aa depression was chosen as a convenienlocaion o accumulae radioacive and oxic wase romhe chemical and hydromeallurgical complex in henewly ounded ciy o Shevchenko (now Akau, wihabou 176 000 inhabians). Te complex produced,among ohers, uranium concenrae mosly or Soviemiliary purposes. Falling prices on he uranium markedue o changes in miliary prioriies, gradually decreasinguranium concenraions in he mines and he overall

Koshkar-Ata lakeThe hazardous legacy of an uranium mine


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economic crisis in he pos-Sovie world o he 1990sled o reduced oupu and ulimaely complee soppageo uranium milling in 1999. Te lake is sill used as adumping ground or commercial and producion wase,oil exracion sludge, ec.

In he years o uranium producion, 356 million onneso mining wase wih a oal radiaion aciviy o 11 242Curie were channelled ino he Koshkar-Aa ailingpond. Uranium mill ailings wih low o medium-levelradioaciviy accoun or almos 105 million onnes ohe oal. Significanly increased exposure raes a 80 o150 micro roengen per hour (/h) were measured inhe souhern par.

o preven he wind rom dispersing radioacive wase,i was kep immersed underwaer. Abou hal he ailingsurace is currenly covered wih waer rom indusrialoperaions, bu i is esimaed ha he ailing pond willdry ou in a ew years due o high evaporaion and he lacko waer, wih no more wasewaer flowing in rom heshu-down acories. An esimaed 24 square kilomereso he ailing botom has dried up and is already exposedo he air. Tis par has he highes concenraion oconaminans, covered wih solid wase emiting highlevels o radioaciviy. Consanly swep by srongwinds, here is a serious risk o polluan dispersal. Largeamouns o phosphoric gypsum, a by-produc o eriliserproducion, have been discharged ino he lake and hegypsum has ormed a crus on he surace, prevening

dusing and he escape o radon. As a resul, dispersal odus-blown subsances and radon emissions are limied,and local scieniss conclude hey do no currenlyconsiue a healh hazard.

Te obsolee inrasrucure rom ormer uraniumopen-cas mines and processing aciliies consiuesan addiional risk o exposure o radioacive maerial.Among he indusrial dumps and derelic indusrialequipmen here are several radiaion ho spos exceeding1 500 o 3 000 /h, as agains naural radiaion inKazakhsan o 10 o 15 /h. Te local populaionand emporary migrans rom he neighbouring Uzbekepublic o Karakalpakia are illegally dismanling heinrasrucure, o sell he scrap meal as a raw maerial ornew consrucion. Bu poenial cusomers are inclinedo rejec highly radioacive pars, and he sellers simplydispose o he maerial elsewhere in he counryside.

Aka u is also home o a nucl ear powe r sai on, now

shu down. Decommissioning o he as-breederreacor is under way, wih exensive inernaionalsuppor. Spen uel is sored on-sie, as are 1 000onnes o radioacive sodium.

Bu radiaion does no seem o be he mos imporanconcern or he local auhorii es. Tey are more concernedha polluans migh migrae hrough groundwaer andconaminae he Caspian Sea locaed jus eigh kilomeresaway. A presen, here seems o be no hard evidence hapolluans have reached he Caspian Sea. According orecen monioring daa, high levels o conaminans in

Khazar (ormerly Cheleken) is a own o 10 000 people(once 16 000), locaed on he Cheleken peninsula onhe Caspian shore. Iron bromide (FeBr

2) producion

sared a he Cheleken plan in 1940, ollowed by iodineproducion in 1976. Te producion capaciy o he planis abou 250 onnes o iodine a year. Te naural waer(brine) ound here conains radioacive elemens. Duringiodine processing, wih he coal-absorpion mehod,radionuclides (mosly a) in he brine are deposied onhe surace o pipes and equipmen, and in he coal usedin he process isel. Abou 18 000 onnes o radioacivewase have accumulaed and arenow deposied in an open soragearea less han 200 meres rom hesea. Some o he plans aciliieshave already been enguled by herising sea. Te radiaion dose onhe plans dump varies rom 2 500o 4 000 micro-roengen an hour[/h], and in he surroundings

250 o 750 /h, posing anoccupaional healh risk orworkers mainly hrough in halaion.adon concenraions in he localair are 1 000 imes higher han heaverage or urkmenisan and closeo he permissible limi values orexposure. Srong winds and dussorms may disperse he maerialsand conaminaed carbon pariclesin he dump. Liquid acid effluensrom he plan pose an addiional

environmenal problem. Due o he appalling sae ohe pumping and neuralisaion saions hese effluensare discharged almos unreaed. Te auhoriies haveissued a call or enders o neuralise he sie and build aradioacive wase sorage uni in Aligul, a saer locaion17 kilomeres away rom Khazar. A NAO projecimplemened under he Environmen and SecuriyIniiaive in Cenral Asia is assising urkmenisan in hesae handling o radioacive wase, including suppor oa radiochemical laboraory in Ashgaba and raining inwase characerisaion and radio proecion.

Cheleken Peninsula pollution sources

TurkmenbashiAvaza National

Turism Zone

YangadzhaBelek

Cheleken Garagol

Koturdepe

Sources: EIA maps, 2002; Friends of theEarth mission report: Kazakhstan , 2007;UNEP, Environment and security. Thecase of the Eastern Caspian region, 2008.

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Environmentalsensitive areas

Oil and gas Industry and waste

TURKMENISTAN

Environmental hotspots

Fields

Offshore prospects

Radioactive waste site

Industrial waste site

Untreated sewage

report unep arendal report vital caspian graphics 2011

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