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![Page 1: Report on the International Expert Elicitation Workshop on ... · Report on the International Expert Elicitation Workshop on Prion Disease Transmission held March 16-17, 2009 R. Samuel](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051602/5af7d72d7f8b9a8d1c90c7cd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Report on the
International Expert
Elicitation Workshop on
Prion Disease Transmission
held March 16-17, 2009
R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment
A PAHO / WHO Collaborating Centre in Population Health Risk Assessment
February 25, 2009
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
Applications of Expert Elicitation
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
Calibration of Experts
• Evaluate expert’s uncertainty assessments based on a series of calibration questions where the answer is known
• Weight expert opinion in relation to calibration exercise (Cooke ‘calibration score’)
• Thirteen seed questions used to calibrate experts
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
Target Questions
Following calibration, the experts were asked to answer 22 target question s
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
• What is the likelihood of the existence of another zoonotic TSE strain other than classical BSE? (%)
Target Question #4
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
Target Question #4
• What is the likelihood of the existence of another zoonotic TSE strain other than classical BSE? (%)
The experts considered it highly likely that there exist animal diseases other than BSE that may affect humans.
Best expert judgement: over 98% likelihood of the e xistenceof zoonotic diseases other than classical BSE.
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
• What is the likelihood that chronic wasting disease can transmit to humans? (%)
Target Question #22
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McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessm ent
Target Question #22
• What is the likelihood that chronic wasting disease can transmit to humans? (%)
The experts thought that it possible that chronic wasting disease can be transmitted to humans.
Best expert judgement: likelihood of just under 10%
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Report on the
International Expert
Elicitation Workshop on
Prion Disease Transmission
held March 16-17, 2009
R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment
A PAHO / WHO Collaborating Centre in Population Health Risk Assessment
March 18, 2009