report on nevada s housing market - university of nevada, las vegas€¦ · report on nevada’s...

ReportonNevada’sHousingMarket

September2016

ThisseriesofreportsonNevada’sHousingMarketispresentedbytheLiedInstituteforRealEstateStudiesattheUniversityofNevada,LasVegas.ThesereportsprovidemonthlyupdatesonhousingmarkettrendsforstakeholdersthroughoutNevada.

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Nevada’sHousingMarket |September2016

TableofContents

NevadaStatewideTrends…….................................... 2

NorthernTrends………………………………………….. 10

SouthernTrends………………………………………….. 14

RuralTrends…………………………………………........... 18

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NevadaStatewideTrends

Population:2,890,845 in2015 HousingUnits:1,209,756 in2015

Source:U.S.CensusBureau:StateandCountyQuickFacts

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Nye

Elko

Clark

Lincoln

Humboldt

Washoe

WhitePine

Lander

Pershing

Eureka

Churchill

Mineral

Lyon

Esmeralda

Douglas

Storey

CarsonCity

Single‐FamilyHomeSales* September2016 M2MChange Y2YChangeNew 752 +1.3% ‐13.3%Existing 4,459 ‐9.5% ‐17.1%DistressShare 9.8% +5.0% ‐17.8%

ResidentialConstructionTotalStarts 1,163 ‐24 +350Single‐Family 987 +94 +206Multifamily 176 ‐118 +144

AverageSingle‐FamilySalesPrice*New $362,655 +2.0% +3.4%Existing $244,118 ‐1.4% +4.4%Distress $193,115 +1.6% +9.1%

Source:LiedInstitutecalculationsandtheStateoftheCitiesDataSystems byU.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment.*FiguresportrayThree‐MonthMovingWeightedAverages

StatewidenewhomesalesincreasedslightlyafterseeingalargedecreaseinAugust2016.NewhomesalesdecreasedinNorthernNevadaandincreasedinSouthernNevada.

14.18percentofmortgagesinNevadawereunderwaterattheendofthethirdquarterin2016.Thiswaslessthanaonepercentagepointdecreasefromthesecondquarterof2016.

HousingaffordabilitydecreasedintheRenoMetropolitanarea,accordingtotheNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders.41.8percentofhomeswereaffordabletothemedianincomeinReno.HousingaffordabilityremainednearlyunchangedforLasVegasandtheUnitedStates.

Newhomepricesincreasedafterseeingthreeconsecutivemonthlydecreases.


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The Single‐Family Home Prices figure above shows the three‐month moving average price of existing homes and new homes.Existing homes are single family homes that were exchanged from one private owner to another. This includes homes sold byreal estate agents, owners, and lenders. New homes are single family homes that were exchanged from a builder to a privateowner. The other figure, Single‐Family Homes Sales, illustrates the number of those transactions for both existing and newhomes. A seasonal pattern is obvious in the Single‐Family Home Sales graph, with more home sales during the summer thanduring the winter.


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Existing New

Note: Series are 3-month weighted moving averages.

Single-Family Home Prices

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Single-Family Home Sales

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Las Vegas Reno Nation

Source: National Association of Home BuildersNote: Series denote the proportion of home sales affordable at median income.

Housing Affordability


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The Housing Affordability figure shows the proportion of home sales that could have been bought by borrowers earning atleast the local median income, with a conventional loan. This index was developed by the National Association of HomeBuilders (NAHB), to provide a benchmark of affordability. The other figure, Nevada Single‐Family Homes for Sale, shows thenumber of homes available for sale at the end of the month. These numbers include new listings that are awaiting a purchasingcontract, as well as homes that are under contract and about to sell.


Equilibrium

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Source: Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors and Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors

Nevada Single-Family Homes for Sale


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Single‐Family Distress Sales is a figure that displays the monthly number of Real Estate Owned (REO) sales and short sales.REO sales are homes that have been repossessed by lenders through foreclosure and then sold in the market. Short sales, onthe other hand, are homes that were sold for an amount below the owner’s outstanding mortgage balance. Both numbers arethree‐month weighted moving averages. The other figure, Share of Distress Single‐Family Home Sales, tracks the proportion ofhome sales (including new home sales) that were REO sales or short sales. The long term decline in that share continues, evenas the number of such sales remains roughly level, indicating an increasing number of “normal” sales.


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REO Sales Short Sales


Single-Family Distress Sales


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The Foreclosure Trends figure includes two series: the 90+ Days Delinquent series and the Foreclosure Inventory series. The90+ Days Delinquent series consists of the number of homes that are secured by a loan in default for 90 days or more. Thisincludes homes that are in the process of being foreclosed. The Foreclosure Inventory series consists of homes that have begunthe foreclosure process or are in some stage of foreclosure. The other figure depicts what proportion of homes secured by amortgage have positive equity or negative equity. When a home has a market value at or above its outstanding mortgagebalance, it is consider to have positive equity. Otherwise, the house has negative equity.


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90+ Days Delinquent Foreclosure Inventory

Foreclosure Trends

14.1818.99

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31.99

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(Home Value - Mortgage Balance)Equity Measures as of Quarter 3, 2016

Positive Equity Negative Equity


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The first figure shows the monthly number of Notices of Default and Repossessions. The Notice of Default (NOD) is the initialstage of foreclosure that starts at least 90 days after the homeowner’s mortgage default date. Not all homes that receive a NODwill necessarily be foreclosed. There exist other alternatives homeowners can invoke such as a loan modification, deed‐in‐lieuof foreclosure, and short sale. The other figure, Residential Home Auctions, shows the monthly number of homes that receiveda Notice of Trustee Sale and underwent a public auction. It includes both the successful and unsuccessful auctions. Those thatwere unsuccessful revert back to the lender.


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REO 3-Month Moving Average Actual REONOD 3-Month Moving Average Actual NOD

Notices of Default and Repossessions

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Notice of Trustee Sales 3-Month Moving Average

Residential Home Auctions

1.251.75.5.250Mortgage Foreclosure Starts as Percent of Stock

WisconsinSouth Carolina

KentuckyMassachusetts

MissouriTennessee

FloridaWyomingLouisiana

Rhode IslandGeorgia

IllinoisPennsylvania

DelawareWest Virginia

ConnecticutMaine

IndianaNew YorkAlabamaArkansasMaryland

OhioMississippiNew Jersey

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey

3rd Quarter 2016Top 25 States in Foreclosure Starts

121086420Percent of Loans in the Foreclosure Inventory

LouisianaKentucky

IndianaMaryland

OklahomaPennsylvania

MassachusettsIllinois

Ohio11. Nevada

Rhode IslandVermont

DelawareConnecticutNew Mexico

FloridaHawaiiMaine

New YorkNew Jersey

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey

3rd Quarter 2016Top 20 States in Foreclosure Inventory


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These figures rank Nevada nationally on the basis of data provided by The Mortgage Bankers Association’s NationalDelinquency Survey. The Top 20 States in Foreclosure Inventory uses the proportion of outstanding loans that are in theforeclosure inventory ‐ that is, the number of home loans reported to be in some stage of foreclosure divided by the totalnumber of home loans serviced. The Top 25 States in Foreclosure Starts is a ranking that uses mortgage foreclosure starts as apercent of stock. In other words, this is the number of initiated foreclosures divided by the total number of home loansserviced.


Ranked11in2016Q2

Ranked22in2016Q2

1.95Nevadaranked29in2016Q3at0.39

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NorthernTrends

Population:629,906in2015 HousingUnits:271,431in2015

Source:U.S.CensusBureau:StateandCountyQuickFacts (CarsonCity,Churchill,Douglas,Lyon,Storey,andWashoeCounty)

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NorthernTrends Newhomesalesdecreasedonamonthtomonthbasisforthefifth

consecutivemonth.Existinghomesalesdecreasedonamonthtomonthbasisforthethirdconsecutivemonth.

Single‐Familyconstructionstartswerethehighestofanymonthsofarin2016.

Theshareofmortgageswithnegativeequitywas7.7percent.Thisrepresentsa0.3percentagepointdecreasefrom2016Q2.

NorthernNevadawastheonlyregionwhereaveragenewandexistinghomepricesincreasedonamonthtomonthbasis.Averagedistresshomepricessawalargeincreaseof$19,000sincethepreviousmonth.

Nye

Elko

Clark

Lincoln

Humboldt

Washoe

WhitePine

Lander

Pershing

Eureka

Churchill

Mineral

Lyon

Esmeralda

Douglas

Storey

CarsonCity


Single‐FamilyHomeSales* September2016 M2MChange Y2YChangeNew 70 ‐35.5% ‐52.9%Existing 822 ‐24.8% ‐31.7%DistressShare 6.4% +8.2% ‐15.3%

ResidentialConstructionTotalStarts 342 ‐119 +156Single‐Family 292 +125 +106Multifamily 50 ‐244 +50

AverageSingle‐FamilySalesPrice*New $404,481 +2.7% +8.7%Existing $307,124 +1.1% +5.1%Distress $227,552 +8.9% +10.2%


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NorthernTrends


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NorthernTrends


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Foreclosure Trends

7.7411.3517.83

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SouthernTrends

Population:2,114,801 in2015 HousingUnits:871,807in2015

Source:U.S.CensusBureau:StateandCountyQuickFacts (ClarkCounty)

Nye

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SouthernTrends


Single‐FamilyHomeSales* September2016 M2MChange Y2YChangeNew 667 +7.1% ‐4.4%Existing 3,402 ‐5.6% ‐12.7%DistressShare 10.1% +0.0% ‐23.7%

ResidentialConstructionTotalStarts 803 +98 +235Single‐Family 677 ‐28 +109Multifamily 126 +126 +126

AverageSingle‐FamilySalesPrice*New $361,193 +3.0% +3.4%Existing $235,234 ‐0.5% +5.8%Distress $193,679 +1.4% +10.2%


NewhomesalessawalargeincreaseafterseeingalargedecreaseinAugust2016.Existinghomesalesdecreasedforthethirdconsecutivemonth.

Theshareofmortgageswithnegativeequitywas16.2percent.Thisrepresentsa0.5percentagepointdecreasefrom2016Q2.

Newhomepricesincreasedafterthreeconsecutivemonthswithadeceaseinprice.September2016wasthesecondconsecutivemonthwheretheyeartoyearchangeinnewhomepriceswaslessthan5percent.

Existinghomepricesdecreasedforthesecondconsecutivemonth.However,existinghomepriceshadmorerobustyearoveryeargrowthcomparedtonewhomepricesforthethirdconsecutivemonth.

SouthernTrends

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SouthernTrends


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Foreclosure Trends

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RuralTrends

Population:146,138 in2015 HousingUnits:66,518in2015

Source:U.S.CensusBureau:StateandCountyQuickFacts (Elko,Esmeralda,Eureka,Humboldt,Lander,Lincoln,Mineral,Nye,Pershing,andWhitePineCounty)

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RuralTrends Newhomesalessawalargemonthlyincreaseafteralargemonthly

decreaseinAugust2016.Newhomesalesdecreasedonayearoveryearbasisforthesixthconsecutivemonth.

Theshareofhomessoldunderdistressincreased2percentagepointsfromthepreviousmonth.ThisincreasewasdrivenbyanincreaseinREOsalesasshortsaleswereunchanged.

Theshareofmortgageswithnegativeequitydecreasedslightlyandwas13.8percentattheendof2016Q3.

Homepricesdecreasedonamonthtomonthbasisfornew,existing,anddistressedhomes.Newhomepricessawayeartoyeardecreaseafterthreeconsecutivemonthswithanincrease.Newhomepricesweredown$10,000sinceSeptember2015.

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Single‐FamilyHomeSales* September2016 M2MChange Y2YChangeNew 15 +53.3% ‐23.3%Existing 203 +0.0% ‐14.6%DistressShare 12.8% +18.6% ‐4.3%

ResidentialConstructionTotalStarts 18 ‐3 ‐41Single‐Family 18 ‐3 ‐9Multifamily 0 +0 ‐32

AverageSingle‐FamilySalesPrice*New $235,863 ‐4.7% ‐4.0%Existing $148,743 ‐0.3% +10.0%Distress $120,069 ‐0.8% +8.5%


RuralTrends

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RuralTrends


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About the Lied Institute

The Lied Institute was established in 1989 by the LeeBusiness School at the University of Nevada, Las Vegasto foster excellence in real estate education andresearch. Through partnerships with business andcommunity leaders, the Lied Institute strives toimprove the real estate business and effective publicpolicy practices in Southern Nevada. The instituteproduces relevant and timely real estate research,supports educational programs in real estateeconomics and finance for students and professionals,and provides community outreach and continuingeducation.

LiedInstituteforRealEstateStudies4505S.MarylandParkway,Box456025

LasVegas,NV89154‐6025

EdwardCoulsonDirector

(702)895‐[email protected]

BettyCampbellProgramCoordinator(702)895‐4492

[email protected]

PeterCountsDataAnalyst

(702)895‐[email protected]

©Copyright2013ReportonNevada’sHousingMarketReadersmayreproducethepublication’sitemsiftheycitethepublicationnameanddate,andnotethecopyrightofLiedInstituteforRealEstateStudies,UniversityofNevada,LasVegas.


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