report on employment trends and data availability in hong...
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Report on employment trends and data availability in Hong Kong, China (HKC)
1. Overview of economic and demographic trends affecting employment
The population of Hong Kong has increased from 5.18 million in mid-1981 to mid-7.24 million in
2014. The fast population growth in the early 1980s was mainly attributable to a high level of
entrants from China. From the mid-80s to early 90s, population recorded rather low annual growth
rate, because the number of emigrants offset the effect of immigrants from China. Population
growth resumed from 1993 to 1996, as many people who had emigrated in early years returned to
Hong Kong. The population growth has since remained largely steady, save for the meagre decline
recorded in 2003.
Hong Kong’s population grew by 0.6% per annum over the past decade, and is now facing the
challenges of an ageing population, a shrinking labour force and declining productivity. The latest
figures suggest that by 2041, the dependency ratio will be 1.8, up from 4.7 in 2014. This means
approximately one out of three persons will be an elderly in 2041. The imminent consequence will
be the dwindling labour force, as more people retire and fewer young people enter the labour
market. The total labour force is projected to peak in 2018 and set to decline until the early 2030s.
Besides, Hong Kong is a service-oriented economy, as employment of the service industries accounts
for almost 90% of the total employment. During 2003 to 2013, the employment share of the service
industry within the total employment increased by 2.2 percentage points. On the other hand, the
employment share of manufacturing fell from 5.0% to 2.9% over the same period. Specifically, the
Four Key Industries (viz. financial services, tourism, trading and logistics, and professional and
producer services) in the Hong Kong economy employed 1 764 200 persons, contributing 47.3% of
total employment in 2013. On the other hand, selected emerging industries (viz. cultural and
creative industries, medical services, education services, innovation and technology, testing and
certification services and environmental industries) employed 450 250 in 2013, accounting for 12.1%
of total employment.
The future of our city hinges on the quality of our people, which is one of our most valuable assets.
The Government has spared no effort on improving the quality of manpower, while striving to
broaden our economic base and steer the development towards high value-added activities.
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2. Current data collections
2.1 Main data collections
Collection name
Frequency with which data collection takes place
First year for which data are available
How often results are published
How data can be obtained Main variables collected
General Household Survey (GHS)
Monthly 1985 Monthly http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/so200.jsp http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp?productCode=B1050001
Demographic characteristics: age, sex, marital status, educational attainment, relationship to household head
Main labour force characteristics: employment status Employed persons Industry, occupation, hours of work, employment earnings Unemployed persons Duration of unemployment, previous industry, previous occupation
Household characteristics: household size, type of housing, tenure of accommodation, household income
A list of data topics can be obtained in Part II of the publication “Quarterly Report on General Household Survey” which can be downloaded from: http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp?productCode=B1050001
Quarterly Survey of Employment and Vacancies (SEV)
Quarterly Q2 1980 Quarterly http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp?productCode=B1050003 http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp
Establishment characteristics: industry, employment size
Employment characteristics: paid/unpaid, sex Vacancies characteristics: occupation
Quarterly Employment
Quarterly Q1 1976 Quarterly http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp?productCode=B1050004
Construction site characteristics: end-use of construction project, employment size
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Survey of Construction Sites (Site Survey)
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp
Employment characteristics: sex Vacancies characteristics: occupation
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2.2 Method for identifying shortages and surpluses of labour and qualified workers
We do not have definitions on “shortages” and “surpluses”. Nevertheless, statistics on number of
vacancies by industry and broad occupation, and number of unemployed persons by previous
industry and occupation may be used as ballpark estimates for shortage and surplus of labour and
qualified workers respectively.
2.3 Method for projecting future employment
The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region (HKSAR) conducts manpower projections (but not employment projections) from time to time to project the broad trends of its future manpower supply and requirements at the macro level in the medium term, as well as the potential manpower imbalances at different education levels. The manpower statistics in these projections exclude foreign domestic helpers. The latest set of projections, namely the Manpower Projection to 2022 (MP2022), adopted 2012 as
the base year and a projection period up to 2022. It comprises three major components –
Manpower Supply Projection (MSP), Manpower Requirement Projection (MRP) and Manpower
Resource Balance (MRB). MSP includes analyses by age, sex and education level, while MRP covers
analyses by economic sector, occupation group and education level. MRB assesses whether the
future manpower is in balance, surplus or shortfall in relation to the overall economy and at
different education levels.
Methodology used to develop the projections
The methodology of MP2022 is summarised as follows. Manpower Requirements The manpower requirements of various sectors and industries in the base year reflected the actual situation of the labour market in 2012, and were worked out primarily on the basis of HKSAR Census and Statistics Department (C&SD)’s manpower statistics, taking into account job vacancies. The projected manpower requirements of various sectors and industries in 2022 were compiled by drawing on the relevant historical manpower trends; the findings of an extensive consultation conducted with businesses, trade associations and academics on the outlook for the future manpower requirements of various sectors and industries; the survey findings on employers’ views on their future manpower needs; as well as the views of relevant government bureaux/departments responsible for manpower development programmes and statutory training bodies. Manpower Supply The actual local manpower supply in the base year of 2012 was compiled on the basis of the labour force statistics of the C&SD. The projected manpower supply by education level in 2022 was worked out by drawing reference to a wide range of statistics, such as Hong Kong Population Projections 2012–2041, Hong Kong Labour Force Projections 2013 – 2041 and statistics of the educational profile of Hong Kong people. Manpower Resource Balance MRB refers to the quantitative difference between MSP and MRP and provides a measure to assess whether the manpower will be in balance, surplus or shortfall in 2022.
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Details of the methodology of Manpower Projection to 2022 are set out at the Report, which is
available at http://www.lwb.gov.hk/report/mp2022_en.pdf.
Time period covered by projections
MP2022 adopted 2012 as the base year with a projection horizon of 10 years up to 2022. The HKSAR
Government conducts manpower projections from time to time, such as following the completion of
a population census/by-census.
Industries and occupations covered by the projections
MP2022 adopts the 12 conventional economic sectors as defined by the Hong Kong Standard Industrial Classification Version 2.0 (a standard framework used by the HKSAR Census & Statistics Department for compiling sectoral statistics) in analysing sector-specific manpower requirements. These sectors together make up the whole economy of HKSAR, covering Agricultural, fishing and quarrying; Manufacturing; Electricity, gas, water, and waste management; Construction; Import, export, wholesale and retail trades; Accommodation and food services; Transportation, storage, postal and courier services; Information and communications; Financial services; Real estate; Professional and business services; and Social and personal services. The occupation groups adopted in MP2022 are classified into nine categories, namely Managers and
administrators; Professionals; Associate professionals; Clerical support workers; Service and sales
workers; Agricultural and fishery workers; Craft and related workers; Drivers, plant and machinery
operators, and assemblers; and Elementary occupations.
Coverage of future demand for qualified workers
MP2022 adopts a six-level education classification, namely, Lower secondary and below, Upper
secondary, Diploma (including Craft), Sub-degree, First degree and Postgraduate, in analysing the
findings of MSP and MRP. These education levels largely reflect the formal educational structure of
HKSAR.
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3. Current labour market conditions
3.1 Recent trends in educational attainment of the population
The numbers of students enrolled in primary and secondary school dropped considerably by 31.5%
and 15.9% over 2003 respectively to 320 918 and 398 372 in 2013. As for post-secondary education,
enrolment in the University Grants Committee (UGC) funded institutions was 193 415 in 2013, more
than doubled (+114%) that in 2003. Meanwhile, enrolment in the Vocational Training Council (VTC)
was 59 793 in 2013, broadly similar to that in 2003.
Enrolment in the UGC funded programmes rose by 18.0% during 2003-2013 to 95 456 in 2013.
Analysed by academic programme category, increases in enrolment were almost across the board.
The five categories with the largest increases in enrolment were Studies allied to Medicine and
Health (+98.5%), Mathematical Sciences (+89.2%), Humanities (+77.9%), Arts, Design and Performing
Arts (+51.6%), and Medicine (+46.1%).
Over the same period, graduates of the UGC funded programmes increased in Studies allied to
Medicine and Health (+50.5%), Humanities (+32.2%), and Mathematical Sciences (+23.8%).
Note: (^): including craft courses
Source: GHS, C&SD
26.3
16.8
35.0
21.919.6
15.1
35.4
29.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Primary education and
below
Lower secondary
education
Upper secondary
education^
Post-secondary
education
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.1a : Distribution of population aged 15 and over by educational attainment in 2004 and 2014
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Note: (^): including craft courses
Source: GHS, C&SD
Education upgrading in Hong Kong’s population and labour force continued during 2004-2014, with a
clear shift from lower secondary and below education to post-secondary education level (Charts
3.1a & b). Within the post-secondary education level, the share of labour force attaining a degree
level rose from around 66% in 2004 to around three quarters in 2014. The changes in educational
composition of the labour force was largely driven by the Government’s concerted effort to promote
post-secondary education in view of the growing demand for well-educated and skilled workers in a
knowledge-based economy.
3.2 Recent trends in employment by occupation
During 2004-2014, employment grew by 14.5% in overall terms, with a bigger rise observed in
higher-skilled workers (+29.1%) (Chart 3.2a). Within the higher-skilled segment, employment
growth was across the board, notably managers and administrators (+40.8%). On the other hand,
varied movements were seen across the lower–skilled occupations. More visible growth was seen
among elementary occupations (+23.3%) and service and sales workers (+22.6%), while more
noticeable decline was found among plant and machine operators and assemblers (-23.9%).
The higher-skilled segment accounted for a rising share of total employment, up from 33.6% in 2004
to 37.9% in 2014, as a result of the faster employment growth vis-à-vis the lower-skilled segment
over the past ten years (Chart 3.2b). More specifically, managers and administrators, and
professionals comprised a larger share within the higher-skilled segment (Chart 3.2c), while service
and sales workers, and elementary occupations contributed greater proportions within the lower-
skilled segment (Chart 3.2d).
14.817.6
39.8
27.7
9.8
14.8
39.136.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Primary education and
below
Lower secondary
education
Upper secondary
education^
Post-secondary
education
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.1b : Distribution of labour force by educational attainment in 2004 and 2014
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29.1
40.8
32.7
22.4
7.4
-4.8
22.6
-6.1
-23.9
23.3
14.5
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Higher-skilled workers
Managers and administrators
Professionals
Associate professionals
Lower-skilled workers
Clerical support workers
Service and sales workers
Craft and related workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Total
Chart 3.2a : Cumulative employment growth by occupational group during 2004-2014
%
Higher-skilled workers
Lower-skilled workers
Total
[-25 800]
[-16 200]
[-55 900]
[+320 200]
[+114 400]
[+68 800]
[+136 900]
[+160 100]
[+116 200]
[+141 800]
[+475 700]
33.6
8.66.4
18.6
66.1
16.6 15.7
8.2 7.1
18.5
37.9
10.57.5
19.9
62.0
13.816.8
6.74.7
20.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Hig
her
-sk
ille
d
wo
rker
s
Man
ager
s an
d
adm
inis
trat
ors
Pro
fess
ion
als
Ass
oci
ate
pro
fess
ional
s
Lo
wer
-skil
led
wo
rker
s
Cle
rica
l su
pp
ort
wo
rker
s
Ser
vic
e an
d s
ales
wo
rker
s
C
raft
and
rel
ated
wo
rker
s
P
lan
t an
d m
ach
ine
op
erat
ors
and
asse
mb
lers
Ele
men
tary
occ
up
atio
ns
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.2b : Shares of total employment by occupation in 2004 and 2014
Hig
her
-sk
ille
d
wo
rker
s
Lo
wer
-sk
ille
d
wo
rker
s
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Note: (^): including craft courses
Source: GHS, C&SD
25.5
19.1
55.4
27.8
19.7
52.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Managers and
administrators
Professionals Associate professionals
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.2c : Shares of employment in higher-skilled segment in 2004 and 2014
25.123.7
12.310.8
28.1
22.2
27.1
10.8
7.7
32.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Clerical support
workers
Service and sales
workers
Craft and related
workers
Plant and
machine operators
and assemblers
Elementary
occupations
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.2d : Shares of employment in lower-skilled segment in 2004 and 2014
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3.3 Recent trends in employment by industry
During 2004-2014, employment growth was observed in a number of sectors, most notably financing
and insurance (52.2%), professional and business services (excluding cleaning and similar activities)
(43.9%), and accommodation services (39.6%). Nevertheless, more noticeable declines in
employment were found in the manufacturing (-35.6%) and public administration (-17.4%)
(Chart 3.3a).
Import/export trades and wholesales sector still accounted for the largest share of total employment
in Hong Kong in 2014 despite a visible fall in its share from 16.7% in 2004 to 13.4%, followed by the
retail (9.2%) and construction (8.2%) sectors. During the same period, more discernible increases in
share of total employment were seen in the financing and insurance, professional and business
services (excluding cleaning and similar activities), and retail sectors, while more visible declines
were found in the manufacturing and public administration sectors (Chart 3.3b).
-35.6
16.7
-7.8
26.0
39.6
15.6
6.3
52.2
31.6
43.9
-17.4
30.4
14.5
-40 -20 0 20 40
Manufacturing
Construction
Import/export trades and wholesale
Retail
Accommodation services
Food and beverage service activities
Transportation and storage
Financing and Insurance
Real estate
Professional and business services
(excl. cleaning & similar act.)
Public administration
Education
Overall
Chart 3.3a : Cumulative employment growth by industry section during 2004-2014
%
Overall
[-72 200]
[-42 700]
[-22 900]
[+43 900]
[+71 100]
[+13 100]
[+32 700]
[+18 000]
[+81 600]
[+37 000]
[+83 200]
[+48 000]
[+475 700]
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Note: (^): including craft courses
Source: GHS, C&SD
6.2
8.0
16.7
8.4
1.0
6.4
8.7
4.83.6
5.8
4.04.8
3.5
8.2
13.4
9.2
1.2
6.5
8.1
6.3
4.1
7.3
2.9
5.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18M
anu
fact
uri
ng
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Imp
ort
/ex
po
rt t
rades
and
wh
ole
sale Ret
ail
Acc
om
mod
atio
n
serv
ices
Fo
od a
nd
bev
erag
e
serv
ice
acti
vit
ies
Tra
nsp
ort
atio
n a
nd
sto
rag
e
Fin
anci
ng a
nd
Insu
ran
ce
Rea
l es
tate
Pro
fess
ion
al a
nd
bu
sin
ess
serv
ices
…
Pu
bli
c ad
min
istr
atio
n
Ed
uca
tio
n
2004
2014
%
Chart 3.3b : Shares of total employment by industry section in 2004 and 2014
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3.4 Occupations and industries which are currently experiencing a shortage of suitable
workers
Analysing the number of job openings in private sector establishments per 100 job-seekers suggests
that the manpower resource balance remained largely tight lately. The overall vacancy-to-
unemployed ratio rose slightly further from 59 in 2013 to 60 in 2014 for the fifth consecutive year,
with the ratio of the lower-skilled segment increasing from 64 to 66 while that of the higher-skilled
segment staying at 81. Manpower resource balance was particularly tight among professionals (99),
services and sales workers (99), as well as associate professionals (95). Analysed by economic sector,
manpower shortages were more apparent in human health activities (168), residential care and
social work activities (151), wholesale (121), accommodation services (121), financing and insurance
(118), food and beverage services (111), and professional and business services (excluding cleaning
services) (106) sectors for which the corresponding ratios all exceeded 100 for 2014 as a whole.
3.5 Occupations and industries which are currently experiencing a surplus of suitable workers
Generally, the prevailing labour market in Hong Kong is rather tight (see Section 3.4 above).
3.6 Recent trends in the employment of people with different levels of educational
attainment
Note: (^): including craft courses
Source: GHS, C&SD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Primary education
and below
Lower secondary
education
Upper secondary
education^
Post-secondary
education
Chart 3.6 : Unemployment rate by educational attainment during 2004-2014
%
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The unemployment rate is generally lower for those with higher level of educational attainment.
The unemployment rate for those who had attained post-secondary education, who were much
better cushioned during economic downturn, was persistently lower than those with lesser
education during 2004-2014. The unemployment rates for those with lower secondary education,
and primary and below education were broadly similar during 2004 - 2008, yet that for those with
primary and below education became consistently lower after 2008, conceivably reflecting the
particularly tight manpower resource balance for the grassroots jobs. The positive relationship
between educational attainment and job security has been observed in Hong Kong for a number of
years. As Hong Kong continues to develop as a diversified and knowledge-based economy, the
employment prospect for the educated workforce is expected to remain favourable at large.
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4. Expected future labour market trends
4.1 Current expectations of future trends in employment in different industries
Following the continuous restructuring towards a service-oriented economy over the past three
decades, Hong Kong will strive to move further up the value chain and move towards a knowledge-
based economy. Against this backdrop, our future employment will remain predominated by
workers in the services sector.
In particular, leveraging on Hong Kong’s strategic position in the region, and its competitive edge in
infrastructure and institutions, the Four Key Industries, namely financial services, tourism, trading
and logistics, and professional services and other producer services, will continue to be the key
drivers of growth, and these should also be the major generators of jobs in future.
For instance, while financial services and professional and producer services generate mainly higher-
skilled jobs, tourism and its related sectors such as retail, transportation, and accommodation and
food services employ a larger proportion of lower-skilled workers, thereby creating diverse
employment opportunities for different strata of our people.
In addition, there are a number of other selected industries, namely cultural and creative industries,
medical services, education services, innovation and technology, testing and certification services,
and environmental industries, which have competitive advantages and growth potential. These
industries have actually enjoyed above-average growth in both value added and employment in the
past few years, and as a result seen a rising share in the overall GDP and total employment (9.1% of
GDP and 12.1% of total employment in 2013, compared to 7.4% and 11.0% in 2008). In this
connection, they are expected to be an important employment generator in the future, especially
for the higher-skilled segment given the knowledge-based nature of most of these industries.
4.2 Current expectations of future trends in employment in different occupations
Amid the continuous economic restructuring and human capital upgrading, the proportion of higher-
skilled workers (namely managers and administrators, professionals, and associate professionals)
has been rising over the past ten years. This trend is expected to continue in view of the high value-
added and knowledge-based nature of the Hong Kong economy, as well as the further development
of the pillar industries and emerging new industries.
On the other hand, lower-skilled workers (namely elementary occupations, service and sales workers,
clerical support workers, plant and machine operators, craft and related workers) still comprise over
60% of our total employment. Employment in some occupations in this segment (e.g. elementary
occupations, service and sales workers) is also expected to see further growth, driven by growing
demand for local consumer services to cater for an aging population (e.g. elderly care services,
laundry, and cleaning services) and a larger number of inbound tourists.
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4.3 Expectations for the future supply of labour
Similar to many advanced economies, Hong Kong faces the immense challenges of population aging,
which will pose a drag on the future supply of labour. Total labour force is projected to peak in 2018
and then to decline persistently until the early 2030s, before stabilising somewhat thereafter.
Indeed, the problem of an aging labour force has already begun to surface, with evidence of
manpower shortage in such sectors as construction, catering, human health services and elderly care
services.
In view of our present demographic situation, the Government has set out clearly the population
policy objectives. Measures include according priority to nurturing local youths, building the pool of
talent through continuing education and training, and enticing more elderly and female workers to
join the workforce. The implementation of the Statutory Minimum Wage since 2011 has aided to
this effect as seen from the higher labour force participation rate among female and older workers.
At the same time, the Government recognises the need to attract talents from outside, especially to
facilitate the development of emerging industries, with a view to broadening our economic base and
creating diversified job opportunities. In this regard, initiatives to attract global talent are also very
important as one of the ways to support Hong Kong's development into a high value-added and
diversified economy.
Conclusion
In sum, Hong Kong has undergone economic restructuring over the past 30 years to evolve into the
high value-added, knowledge-based service economy today. In tandem with this transformation,
our human capital has seen remarkable upgrading as well, with a rising proportion of better
educated and higher skilled workers.
Going forward, the Hong Kong economy, led by its Four Key Industries and emerging new industries,
should continue to move up the value chain and broaden our economic base. In order to support a
vibrant and competitive knowledge-based economy, we must upgrade the calibre of our human
capital and ensure that our workforce possesses the education and skill levels that fit the needs for
Hong Kong’s future economic development. Meanwhile, a more diversified economy would also
tend to create a wide array of job opportunities, thereby better safeguarding the livelihood of the
lesser skilled workers.
At the same time, we are also very mindful that the economy faces the immense challenge of
population aging, which is set to constrain labour supply down the road. The Government is actively
tackling this issue through formulating a population policy, which includes improving productivity by
education and training, and broadening the pool of workers by enticing the elderly and female
workers as well as attracting global talents, to support economic development.
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Relevant websites and other references
Hong Kong Economic Reports:
http://www.hkeconomy.gov.hk/en/reports/index.htm
Quarterly Report on General Household Survey:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp?productCode=B1050001
Feature Articles on Labour Force Projections:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp?productCode=FA100042
Other tables and publications on Labour Force:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200.jsp
Quarterly Report of Employment and Vacancies Statistics:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp?productCode=B1050003
Quarterly Report of Employment and Vacancies at Construction Sites:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp?productCode=B1050004
Other tables and publications on Employment and Vacancies Statistics:
http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp452.jsp