Report No. 3015-GUA L C PEconomic Memorandumon Guyana

June 9, 1980

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Through December, 1972 I/

US$1.00 . G$ 2.093G$ 1.00 = US$0.48

-December, 1973

US$1.00 = G$ 2.105G$ 1.00 = US$O.475

December, 1974

US$1.00 = G$ 2.229G$ 1.00 = US$0.449

October, 1975

US$1.00 = G$ 2.550G$ 1.00 - US$0.392

1/ The Guyanese dollar floated with pound sterling from July 1972to October 1975 when the Government announced, its linkage tothe US dollar at G$ 2.55 = US$1.00.-

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the findings of an economicmission to Guyana during May 1980. The mission was composedof K. Venkatraman (chief of mission), Constance Bernard(economist), Carlos Elbirt (economist), Beatrice Buyck(investment program analyst), and J. Marcos Sugar (externaldebt specialist).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

MAP

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................. i-vii

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND .. ......... 1

A. Background ................... 1

B. Economic Developments ............................... 3

C. The Government's Response to the Crisis ............. 4

II. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY & CONSTRAINTS ...................... 7

III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ........................ 12

IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ...................................... 16

A. Output and Expenditure .............................. 16

B. Financing of Public Sector Investment Program ....... 16

C. Balance of Payments ................................. 18

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

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Page 1 of 2 pages

COUWTN DATA - GUYANA

ARZA POPUATION DEMITY214,970 km2 829,000 (mid-1979) 3.8 per kn2

Rate of Growth: 1.7 (from 1970 to 1979) par ho2 of srable land

POPULATION cHARjACngiSTics (1979) HL^LTR (1975)Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 28.9 Population per physician 3270.0Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 6.1 Population par hospital bed 190.0Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births)

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DI8S imIU Wor LAWD IMIRSHIP% of national income, higbuit quintile .. % oawne by top 101 of owners*

lowest quintile .. % owned by mllest 10 of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1978) ACCESS TO ILECTIICITY. of population - urban .. of population - urban

- rural .. - rural

NUTRITION (1975) EDOCATIOS (1970)Calorie intake as % of requir-ments 104.0 Adult literacy rate % (1970) 85.0Per capita protein intake 58.0 Primry school enrollment 2(1973) 94,0

GNP PER CAPITA in 1979 US $580

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1979 ANNUAL RAT! OW GROWT CZ. constant prices)

US $ Mln. % 1973-77 1976-78 1979

GNP at Market Prices 489.4 100.0 ** -2.0 -5.6Gross Domestic in-estment 115.6 23.6 3.8 -29.4 4.1Gross National Saving 43.5 8.9 4.1 73.5 -40.4Current Account Balance -72.1 14. 7Exports of Goods, IFS 306.7 62.7 2.7 -1.6 -10.7Imports of Goods, NYS 350.0 71.5 5.8 -19.0 -11.6

OUTPUT, 1979Value Added

US$ Mln.

Agriculture,Porestry & Fishing 102.7 22.4Industry and Mining 133.0 29.0Services 223.1 48.6

Total 458.8 100. 0

GOVERNMENT FINANCEConsolidated Public Sector Central Government

mq !E * 7.) % of ( G$ Mlnn.) % of GDP1978 1979 1978 1979 1978 1979 1978 1979

Current Receipts 512.7 537.4 40.5 40.5 363.8 396.4 28.7 29.9Current Expenditure 443.5 495.8 35.0 37.4 424.0 495.5 33.5 37.4Current Surplus 69.2 41.6 5.5 3.1 -60.2 -99. 1 -4. 8 -7.5Capital Expenditures 251.0 281.0 19.8 21.2 109.0 162.8 8.6 12.3External Assistance (net) 101.0 72.8 8.0 5.5 52.0 51.5 4.1 3.9

a/ The Per Capita GMP estimate is at 1977 market prices, calculated by the ame conversiontechnique as the 1978 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table areat the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered.

not availablenot applicable

Page 2 of 2 pases

CX0T3T MATU - GUYANA

HONEY. CRCDIT *nd MM 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979(G$ million outstanding end period)

Money and Quasi a Mry 287.5 329.8 419.7 429.0 556.0 _ 3.0 723.5Bank Credit to PUbliC *Seat 169.7 139.3 155.5 412.7 603.0 661.0 853.5Bank Credit to Privets 9oter 117.8 125.6 117.4 120.0 113.0 121.0 162.7

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Hoeey and QQae i.a- I =r * Ge i 44.6 34.7 35.2 37.9 49.8 51.3 54.6General Price IU*W (1970 * 100) 117.2 140.3 148.7 161.7 179.1 214.0 256.0Annual percentAte _hwi La:

General Pric^ Index 9.8 19.7 6.0 8.7 10.8 19.5 19.6Bank credit to Public 9s o 75.9 -17.9 11.6 165.4 46.1 9.6 29.1Bank credit to rivete 1etetr 20.8 6.6 -6.5 2.2 -5.8 7.1 34.5

BAJUANCE OF PAELIEN= MC3URcLYDISl UKPORTS (AVERAGE 1977-79)

1977 1978 197Q US M$ln %

Exports of Goods, V1S 275.7 313.7 306.7 Sugar 84.5 30.0Imports of Goods, Ws 347.5 312.2 350.0 Bauxite and Alumina 129.5 46.1Resource Gap (deficit - -) -71.J 1.5 44.3 Rice 31.8 11.3

All other comodities 35.5 12.Interest Payments (net) -14.8 -16.9 -24.6 Total 281.3 lQO.OOther Factor Papinmt (net) -7.1 -6.1 - 5.5Net Transfers -3.9 -6.0 2.3 zXTlURNL DEBT. DECDM(ER 31.1979Balance on Current A Umwt -977.6 -Y7.5 -72.1

US $ minDirect Foreign Dd ;rtUSHNet Public Disburaen_nts Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 442.1

Disbursemmnte 59.2 100.4 131.4 Non-Guaranteed Private DebtAmrtizatiou -23.9 A .O.8 Total outstanding & Disbursed-4ubtotal 35.3 39.6 22.0 /

DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1979Other Capital (net) 0.4 7.9 -3.3 %

Capital Account Balance 35.7 47.5 18.7 Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 29.4Overall Balance 61.9 -20.0 53.4 Non-Guaranteed Private DebtChange in Reserves 22.3 -12.2 48.7 Total outstanding & Disbur6edArrears 32.5 -10.2 4.7Government Funds 7.1 2.4 -

RATE OF ECHANG IBRD/DA LENDIr -n (March, 1980) (US$ million)

-Since - Oct. 1975 IBRD IDA

US$1.00 - G$2.55 Outstanding & Disbursed 33.8 16.3G$1.00 - US$0.392 Undisbursed 18.8 12.3

Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 52.6 28.6

a/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

b/ Includes short-term loans.

not available

not applicable

EPD/PRD

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. Economic conditions in Guyana deteriorated in 1979, with real

GDP falling by about 3%. A number of internal and external factors were

responsible for this situation. The foremost cause was the disappointing

performance of the three major export commodities, sugar, rice and bauxite,

whose production sharply fell below 1978 levels. In agriculture, a combi-

nation of heavy rains and lack of spares and inputs affected the performance

of both rice and sugar. In bauxite, mechanical failures and work stoppages

early in the year, together with a five-week long strike in July/August,

sharply reduced alumina and calcined bauxite production below 1978 levels,

while dried bauxite output increased only negligibly. Production of timber

was hampered by inappropriate pricing policies. Production of manufactured

goods did not increase over 1978 levels as a consequence of difficulties in

obtaining foreign exchanige and import licenses as well as power shortages.

Scarcities of essential consumer goods continued, and consumer prices rose

rapidly, with inflation reaching almost 20% by the end of the year.

ii. Primarily as a consequence of the production shortfalls in bauxite,

rice and sugar, the partial Government subsidy of increased fuel costs and

reduced growth of Central Government revenues, public sector savings fell from

5.5% of GDP in 1978 to about 3% of GDP in 1979. Public capital expenditures

increased substantially over the level of the previous year, although they

remained 30% below budgeted levels, in part because of delays in the execution

of certain externally financed projects. The shortfall in public sector

savings forced the Government to rely heavily on the banking system to finance

the investment program.

iii. As a consequence of export production shortfalls and further rises

in petroleum prices, the external position deteriorated. Merchandise export

value dropped by about 2%. At the same time, largely as a consequence of a

50% increase in the average price of oil during 1979, merchandise imports

increased in value by about 14% over 1978 levels. As a result, the current

account deficit on the balance of payments rose to about 14% of GDP from about

6% the previous year. Net external capital inflows were insufficient to

finance the deficit. Net international reserves fell by US$49 million and

commercial arrears increased by about US$5 million.

iv. Since early 1978, the Government has been making concerted efforts

to alleviate the country's severe economic problems. In March of that year,

it introduced a wide-ranging program devoted to raising public sector revenues,

tightening control of public expenditures and improving the efficiency of the

public sector. In July, the Government entered into a one-year Stand-by

Agreement with the IMF, and in August, adopted a further comprehensive set of

policies--mainly in the fiscal and credit fields--to restrain domestic demand

and mobilize domestic resources.

v. Based on the success of the Stand-by Agreement, a three-year Extended

Fund Facility (EFF) was negotiated in June 1979. Essential conditions of

the EFF provided that a scheduled increase in the public sector's minimum

wage should not be adopted, nor should any other widespread wage and salary

increases in public sector be allowed. Also, it was agreed that remaining

- ii -

subsidies would be removed progressively, price controls eliminated gradually,energy prices adjusted to reflect fuel price increases, bank lending anddeposit rates increased, and commercial arrears eliminated during 1980.Limits werp agreed on with respect to net domestic assets of the Bank ofGuyana, net credit by the banking system to the public sector and contractingof new external debt. As a result of reduced export revenues as well asunanticipated rises in the cost of fuel imports the Government found itselfunable to meet the targets set forth under the EFF, and the Agreement wassuspended in late 1979.

vi. The Government has taken a number of steps in the first few monthsof 1980 toward increasing public sector savings, promoting the recovery ofproduction and exports, and raising the productivity of workers, whose realincomes have dropped considerably during the last two years. Additionalmeasures for introduction in the short and medium term are presently underreview, including further adjustment of electricity tariffs to reflect increasedfuel costs, the elimination of consumer subsidies, the adjustment of farmgaterice prices, increases in interest rates, and steps to promote increasedoutput of manufactured exports.

Development Issues

vii. Guyana's development strategy aims at accelerating economic growth,generating employment and strengthening the balance of payments through thedevelopment and expansion of export-generating and efficient import-substitutingactivities. While the main productive sectors of sugar, rice and bauxite willreceive major emphasis, a significant effort to expand production of non-traditional agricultural and manufactured goods is also underway. In viewof the small size and openness of the economy, its limited linkages and itsrelatively undeveloped resource base, the development strategy requiressubstantial levels of imported raw materials and capital goods. At the sametime, it depends upon increasing the productivity levels of agricultural,mining and other workers, and improving the technical and managerial capabilityof the country's human resources.

viii. In the last three years, the country has undergone a painful adjust-ment process in an attempt to stabilize the balance of payments, reduce itscommercial arrears, and adjust consumption to a level commensurate withresource availabilities and investment requirements for sustained GDP growth.This adjustment process, while necessary, has to some extent impeded theachievement of Guyana's long-term development goals. This difficulty washighlighted in 1979, when adverse weather, labor problems, the shortage offoreign exchange and a deteriorating terms of trade contributed to seriouseconomic setbacks. These reverses have underscored the importance of reconcil-ing the short-term exigencies of Guyana's adjustment process with the require-ments for achieving consistent economic growth and employment generation overthe medium and longer terms. Moreover, they have emphasized the need to takesteps toward resolving long-standing constraints to increasing and sustaininginvestment, savings and output levels.

- iii -

ix. Guyana's prospects for economic recovery during the next two yearsdepend largely on the ability of both the public and private sector to maintainand more fully utilize existing productive capacity and to improve the produc-tivity of labor. In this regard, the provision of adequate foreign exchangeto meet the input and investment requirements of the agricultural and manufac-turing sectors is a crucial requirement for the resumption of economic growth.A program prcsently under consideration would be directed toward meeting theserequirements; in particular, it would provide for the establishment of anExport Development Fund which would contribute foreign exchange to the exportmanufacturing sector. The maintenance of stable industrial relations and theimprovement of labor productivity are also crucial to renewed economic growthduring the short term. In an attempt to ameliorate labor relations, the 1980budget contained an announcement of a new wage package, providing for modestwage increases of between 5% to 7% and additional productivity incentiveschemes. The rationalization of pricing policies -- particularly in agricul-ture and public utilities -- is another step which could increase productionlevels, promote more efficient use of economic resources, and bolster nationalsavings in the next two years.

x. Over the medium and longer term, unemployment will increasinglybecome the most critical problem facing the country. To cope with thischallenge successfully, the Government intends to use all its resources toencourage the development of the economy along an employment-oriented growthpath in which exports of goods and services, efficient import substitutionand the development of the private sector figure prominently. The achievementof these goals will to a large extent depend on the timely execution ofthe public investment program and the ability of the economy to mobilizeincreased levels of private sector investment. In this regard, the Governmenthas taken a pragmatic approach towards both the foreign and local privatesector. There is evidence of increased interest among foreign investorsin the exploration and development of Guyana's mineral resources. In addition,the Government reiterated in the 1980 budget speech its intention to supportthe efforts of the private manufacturing sector.

xi. One of the most serious development issues presently confrontingGuyana is the deterioration of its terms of trade in recent years, whichhas contributed to a steady decline in real gross domestic income. Thissituation largely reflects the heavy fuel import bill, which in 1980 isestimated to account for almost one-third of import value and 24% of GDP.The development of a balanced energy program aimed at reducing reliance onimported oil is accordingly of critical importance to Guyana's economicequilibrium. In this regard, the Government might consider a number ofmeasures to reduce oil imports, such as the restructuring of electricitytariffs, increased use of nonpetroleum energy sources, improvement in theefficiency of existing thermal capacity, development of small hydropowersites, and development of an effective energy conservation program.

xii. Over the longer term, Guyana harbors considerable potential forthe development of substantial hydropower resources at a number of alter-native sites in the western part of the country. One promising potential

- iv -

site is Upper Mazaruni, which would have a capacity of 750 MW in its firststage of development. The development of hydropower resources on such ascale, however, is contingent upon a number of factors. Essential is theidenttfication of adequate markets. In this regard, thie concomitant construc-tion of an aluminum smelter would be vital to the economic feasibility oFUpper Mazaruni; neighboring countries might also provide additional marketsfor this project. A second important requirement is the Government's abilityto raise substantial levels of external financing to execute the project.Finally, a project of this scale sill pose a considerable burden on theeconomy. Immediate steps to expand and strengthen the roa.struction sector, toensure the availability of required infrastructure, and to provide for adequatetechnical and managerial manpower are required if such a project is to proceedwithlout major bottlenecks. Apart from these actions, the Government will haveto attract the participation of major aluminum companies in providing techno-logy, investment, management and markets for the proposed aluminum smelter.Should these requirements be met, the large-scale development of hydropowerholds the potential of substantially relieving Guyana's foreign exchangeconstraints.

Public Sector Investment

xiii. Total public capital expenditures are estimated at G$1,306 millionduring 1980-82--an average of G$435 million or abouit 23% o, CThP per year.The Central Government is expected to implement about 70% of the investmeuliprogram with the rest of the public sector responstfiOe For 1i:h remaining30%. Approximately one-third of the total program consists of small domestic-ally financed projects which at this time do not lend themselves to appraisalby external lending agencies. These projects, if consolidated tnto a cohesiveprogram, could be presented to external donors for technical and financialassistance. In line with Guyana's development goals of export-orientedeconomic growth, about 80% of total public investment is allocated to l:heproductive sectors of the economy and related infrastructure. Agriculturealone accounts for almost 40% of the total investment program. Projects inmanufacturing and mining account for another onie-fifth. Essential infrastruc-ture projects in communications, power and transport to sujpport projects inthe directly productive sectors anount to about 18% of the total. The remainderof the program is devoted to projects in the social sectors and administration.

xiv. The achievement of the country's medium and long-term developmentgoals will to a large extent depend on the successful execution of the publicinvestment program. The pace of project execution continued to be slow in1979. Shortages of skilled technicians, institutional weaknesses, insufficientcoordination and monitoring of project implementation and the shortage of localcounterpart accounted for the delays. In addition, hLgh fuel costs, delays indecision making and higher than expected risk contingencies charged by contrac-tors operating in Guyana have led to sizable cost overruns on several largeexport-oriented projects. The timely completion of these projects ts essentialif Guyana is to expand export production significantly over the next four toELve years. At the same time, the Government will have to complete projects

for the maintenance of sea and river defences, water control systems andtransport network in order to support the export-oriented agricultural activ-ities.

Economic Prospects

xv. In the absence of adverse weather conditions, renewed laborproblems, or further petroleum price hikes, and based on the output performancein the first five months of the year, real GDP should be able to increase by6.5% in 1980, a rate which in part reflects recovery from the economic contrac-tion in 1979. Thereafter, real GDP growth rates averaging about 5% per annumcould be attained. Beyond 1982, economic growth might accelerate moderately,given the completion of the main ongoing projects. Long-term growth prospectswill depend on the country's ability to develop the hydropower resources ofthe country and on the speed at which the private sector invests in newexport-oriented and import-substituting activities. To attain the projectedlevels of economic growth, the level of gross domestic investment will probablyneed to increase from about 21% of GDP in 1979 to an average of 25% during1980-82. This relatively high level of investment allows for some rebuildingof inventories and the replacement of capital stock, both of which have beenseriously depleted during the last two years. As a consequence, it is likelyto have an immediate impact on raising output. To maintain this level ofinvestment in 1980, when a serious deterioration in the terms of trade isanticipated, may require some compression in real consumption per capita.Given the achievement of the above GDP growth targets, after 1980 this levelof investment appears to be consistent with slight increases in real percapita consumption, averaging somewhat less than 1% per year in 1981-82.

xvi. To finance a public sector investment program estimated at G$390million in 1980, as well as external debt amortization payments amounting toG$167 million, a determined effort to mobilize substantial public sectorsavings will be necessary. Assuming the Government transfers fuel prices toelectricity consumers, takes steps toward rationalizing pricing policies inagriculture, maintains its incomes policy, and is successful in increasingoutput in the main productive sectors, public sector savings are projected toreach about G$84 million in 1980. Net domestic borrowing by the public sectoris expected to provide another G$100 million. Accordingly, approximatelyG$370 million will be required from external sources. Of this amount, dis-bursements of project specific assistance already committed is projected atG$164 million. After allowance for committed program-type and commercialborrowing, a financing gap of G$69 million (about US$27 million) remains.Additional project financing of G$26 million (US$10 million) has been requestedfrom external sources. This leaves G$43 million (US$17 million) to be raisedexternally in program type assistance for disbursement in the second half of1980.

xvii. The Government's financing plan for the 1981-82 program appears tobe viable. The plan assumes improved output performance, the rationalizationof pricing policies, and a reduction of public consumption from 26% of GDP in1979 to 22% in 1982. This would be sufficient to increase public sectorsavings to about 9% of GDP, adequate to finance over 40% of public capitalexpenditures in 1982. The plan envisions reduced reliance on the banking

- vi -

system and will require new project financing from external sources in theamount of US$63 million during 1981-82. In addition, disbursements of non-project assistance from external sources, amounting to about US$82 millionduring 1981-82, will be required.

Balance of Payments

xviii. Balance of payments management will require achievement of severalobjectives, in addition to the basic goal of maintaining imports at a levelsufficient to support the projected levels of economic growth. These include(1) progressive reduction of the current account deficit as a percentage ofGDP (apart from the balance of payments impact of large externally financedinvestment projects such as hydropower development); (2) progress toward theelimination of commercial arrears; (3) rebuilding of depleted foreign exchangereserve levels; and (4) improvement in the structure of external debt.

xix. Merchandise export receipts are projected to increase by about45% in 1980. The increase reflects a number of factors, including recoveryfrom low export volume the previous year, increased production in sugar, expan-sion in the bauxite/alumina sector, and favorable price developments forall three major exports. At the same time, as a result of greatly increasedpetroleum prices, the requirements of the investment program and the needto increase import of inputs and spare parts in order to achieve projectedlevels of GDP growth, import value will need to increase by about 40% -- orabout 11% in real terms. As a consequence, in 1980 the current account deficitis projected to be equivalent to about 12% of GDP.

xx. Beyond 1980, export prospects are reasonably favorable. The volumeof sugar exports is expected to increase by about 6% in 1981-82 as a resultof new plantings and increased yields. Rice export volumes should increasesubstantially as a result of rising output from new acreage under doublecropping and propagation of improved seed varieties. Bauxite export volumesshould also expand significantly as investments to increase production capacitybegin to yield results. Prices for Guyana's three major exports are expectedto remain relatively favorable through 1982. At the same time, increasedlumber processing capacity is expected to come on stream in 1982. Other non-traditional exports, while relatively small in absolute amounts, are alsoexpected to grow at a fast pace as a result of increased availability of rawmaterials and spares. Based on favorable price trends for exports, assumingno precipitous changes in real petroleum prices and assuming that nonessentialimports remain limited, the current account deficit is projected to decreaseto about 11% in 1981 and to less than 9% of GDP in 1982, averaging approximately10% of GDP during the period.

xxi. The external capital inflows required by the public sector for the1980-82 period have been estimated at US$423 million (this includes aboutUS$30 million of external grants classified as current transfers in thebalance of payments). About 60%--or US$252 million--of the public sectorrequirements has already been committed. Approximately US$170 million fromnew commitments would be required from external donors. Of this amount,

- vii -

about US$70 million is expected to be provided through new project loans andabout US$100 million would be needed in the form of disbursements of newCDF-type assistance. Such CDF-type assistance would provide foreign exchangeto meet essential import needs of the productive sectors of the economy, whileits counterpart in local currency would contribute to the financing of localcosts of projects included in the Government's investment program. If externalresources in these amounts are mobilized, it should be possible to reducesomewhat commercial arrears in 1981-82 below their current level. A moresizeable reduction in arrears, and the necessary rebuilding of foreign exchangereserves, would require substantial additional balance of payments assistance,including what might be provided from the IMF.

xxii. The above financing program would permit some progress towardachieving greater balance of payments viability. Essential import levelscould be maintained, arrears reduced, and existing debt service obligationswould be fulfilled. At the same time, the current account deficit on thebalance of payments would still be at a level which might be difficult tosustain over the longer term, and the process of rebuilding internationalreserves and restructuring external debt barely started. In view of theanticipated increases in export volume after 1982, when several major export-oriented projects are expected to come on stream, more rapid progress isexpected toward achieving the latter goals during 1983-85. At present, it isapparent that the adjustment process will need to continue for the next fouror five years, during which sound economic and financial management will beessential.

xxiii. The servicing of public external debt obligations has become anincreasing burden in Guyana in recent years with declining export receiptsin most of these years and increased amortization liabilities, in particularfrom nationalization loans and medium-term borrowings in commercial markets.The service on the public and publicly guaranteed debt increased from 4% offoreign exchange earnings in 1975 to about 30% in 1979, a ratio which in partreflects a depressed level of foreign exchange earnings that year. In 1980,it is projected to drop back to 22%, to 20% in 1981 and 14% in 1982. Providedthat the authorities take prompt action to cope with the severe financialdifficulties confronting them and that a substantial part of the requiredexternal resources are provided on concessional terms by the donor community,Guyana may be considered creditworthy for limited borrowing on conventionalterms.

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

A. Background

1. Guyana's economy is based on the export of sugar, rice and bauxite.

Economic activity and population are concentrated along a narrow coastal strip

where sugar and rice are grown. With the exception of bauxite mining, the

vast hinterland remains undeveloped. Economic development has been retardedby a difficult physical environment and sharp fluctuations in output andincome stemming from the vulnerability of the economy to exogenous factors

such as weather and fluctuations in international prices and demand. As a

consequence, income, while fairly evenly distributed, is among the lowest

(US$580 per capita in 1979) in the Western Hemisphere. Real growth of the

economy has been highly variable but since 1976 real GDP per capita has fallen

steadily. As a consequence, it has not been possible to reduce persistent

high levels of unemployment, which reached nearly 20% of the labor force in

1979.

2. When Guyana gained its independence in 1966, the economy was largely

owned and controlled by foreign enterprises operating principally in bauxite

mining, sugar production and retail trade. The indigenous private sector was

limited to local trading and agricultural activities. Shortly after independencethe Government sought to gain control over national assets through acquisition

of foreign owned enterprises. The role of the public sector became dominant

as the Government expanded state enterprises, created new state-owned financial

institutions and nationalized the bauxite/alumina and sugar industries. The

growing role of the public sector was reflected in the increase of its share

of gross domestic capital formation from 40% in 1968 to about 80% in 1979.At the same time, the Government has given high priority to development of the

cooperative sector, to an equitable distribution of income, and to the provi-

sion of food, housing, health care and education to the population.

3. In recent years, the country's economy has been adversely affectedby a number of changes in external economic conditions. Although the 1974

sugar price boom temporarily compensated for the increase in petroleum and

other import prices, when prices returned to lower levels in 1976 the economy

experienced serious difficulties. The temporary flood of sugar earnings had

led to a greatly expanded level of public sector investment and a concomitanthigh import bill in 1975, neither of which it was possible to sustain. In

addition, a sizeable expansion of Central Government current expenditures in

1976, coupled with the drop in sugar revenues, and continuing consumer subsidies

led to a deterioration in gross public sector savings in 1976 to about 2% of

GDP, forcing the Government to rely heavily on the banking system to finance

its greatly expanded investment program. One consequence of this situation was

a record current account deficit in the balance of payments of over 30% of GDP.

Net external inflows were far from adequate to finance the gap, with the result

that gross international reserves fell from US$100 million to US$27 million

during the year.

-2-

4. Despite the introduction of a number of restrictive measures whichimproved the balance of payments, including a 40% reduction in public sectorcapital expenditures, only a marginal improvement in the economy took place in1977. Recovery was hampered by a 4-1/2 month long strike of sugar workers,continued low world sugar prices and a substantial increase in the minimumwage of the public sector. Although the current account deficit in thebalance of payments fell to about 22% of GDP, dwindling net capital inflowswere insufficient to fill the gap. As a result, net foreign exchange reservesbecame highly negative and the country accumulated about US$32 million incommercial arrears by the end of the year. As a consequence of the importcutback, investment reduction, a slight decline in bauxite/alumina output andthe reduction in sugar production consequent to the strike, real GDP declinedby about 5%. At the same time, the removal of some consumer subsidies andfurther import restrictions on consumer goods resulted in an estimated 11%rate of inflation in 1977. Despite cutbacks in nonwage Central Governmentcurrent expenditures, public sector savings became negative. Accordingly,Guyana depended entirely on external inflows, domestic borrowing, and moneycreation to finance public sector investment. Although gross external inflowsdeclined from 1976 levels, they were still equivalent to over half of publicinvestment expenditures. The accumulation of commercial arrears resultedtemporarily in increased liquidity in the banking system, which the publicsector used to help finance its budgetary deficit. This, of course, was nota sustainable method of financing public investment.

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 1975-79(Percentages)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Real GDP Growth 6.4 4.7 -5.3 0.2 -3.0Population Increase 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3Total Per Capita GDP Change 4.7 3.1 -6.8 -1.2 -4.3

Total Real Consumption Change 1.8 25.2 -5.7 -14.8 -6.3Consumption/GDP 74.2 88.7 88.2 75.0 72.5Investment/GDP 32.9 36.5 28.2 19.2 21.7

Gross Domestic Savings/GDP 33.6 10.7 11.8 19.5 14.8Gross National Savings/GDP 31.6 4.3 5.9 13.6 9.5

Balance of PaymentsCurrent Deficit/GDP /a 3.2 30.9 22.3 5.5 13.9

Public Sector Savings/GDP n.a. 2.0 -2.4 5.4 3.2Inflation Rate (AnnualAverage) 6.0 8.7 10.8 19.5 19.6

n.a. - not available.

/a In nominal terms, from Tables 3.1 and 2.4.

Source: Statistical Bureau, Ministry of Finance Bank of Guyana.

5. Improved fiscal management resulted in a turnaround of the public

finances in 1978, with public sector savings reaching over 5% of GDP. Publicsector investment was affected by a slowdown in project execution. As aconsequence, public capital expenditures fell below the 1977 level. A partial

amelioration of Guyana's external position took place in 1978 as well. As a

consequence of expanded about export volume and reduced import outlays, thecurrent account deficit fell to about 6% of GDP, commercial arrears were

reduced by US$10 million, and net international reserves increased by US$12million by the end of the year. The Government's attempts to contain imports

through foreign exchange licensing, expenditure cutbacks and trade restrictions,

together with reduced levels of public investment, were successful in reducingthe value of merchandise imports by about 12% below the 1977 level. This

effort, however, resulted in increasing shortages of intermediate goods and

spare parts, as well as essential consumer goods, which in turn resulted in

large amounts of machinery becoming inoperable and in a deterioration ofservices that led to an interruption of production and retarded economic

activity. As a consequence of the import cutback, investment reductions andpower shortages, real GDP virtually stagnated in 1978. At the same time,

retail prices in the urban areas increased by about 20% partly because of the

imposition of a sales tax, reduction of subsidies and increased productioncosts.

B. Economic Developments

6. Economic conditions deteriorated in 1979, with real GDP falling by

about 3%. A number of internal and external factors were responsible forthis situation. The foremost cause was the disappointing performance of

the three major export commodities, sugar, rice and bauxite, whose productionfell sharply below 1978 levels. In agriculture, a combination of heavy rainsand lack of spares and inputs affected the performance of the spring crop in

both rice and sugar. Additional rainfall, which hampered land preparation for

the autumn rice crop, coupled with rapidly increasing costs of chemical inputsand spares which affected profit margins for producers, reduced rice output by

over 20% of the level of the previous year. In bauxite, mechanical failuresand work stoppages early in the year, together with a five-week long strikein July/August, sharply reduced alumina and calcined bauxite production below1978 levels, while dried bauxite output increased only negligibly. Productionof timber was hampered by inappropriate pricing policies. Production ofmanufactured goods did not increase over 1978 levels as a consequence ofdifficulties in obtaining foreign exchange and import licenses as well as

power shortages. Scarcities of essential consumer goods continued. Consumerprices rose rapidly with inflation reaching almost 20% by the end of theyear.

7. Primarily as a consequence of the production shortfalls in bauxite,rice and sugar, the partial Government subsidy of increased fuel costs and

reduced growth of Central Government revenues, public sector savings fell to

about 3% of GDP in 1979. Public capital expenditures increased substantiallyover the level of the previous year, although they remained 30% below budgeted

levels in part because of the delays in the execution of certain externallyfinanced projects. The shortfall in public sector savings forced the Govern-

ment to rely heavily on the banking system to finance the investment program.

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8. As a consequence of export production shortfalls and further risesin petroleum prices, the external position deteriorated. Merchandise exportvalue dropped by about 2%. At the same time, largely as a consequence of a50% increase in the average price of oil during 1979, merchandise importsincreased in value by about 14% over 1978 levels. As a result, the currentaccount deficit on the balance payments increased to about 14% of GDP. Netexternal capital inflows were inadequate to finance the deficit. Net inter-national reserves fell by US$49 million and commercial arrears increased byabout US$5 million.

C. The Government's Response to the Crisis

9. Since early 1978, the Government has been making concerted effortsto alleviate the country's severe economic problems. In February of that year,it established the State Planning Commission to better oversee and coordinatethe operations of the public sector. A cabinet subcommittee was also appointedfor the monitoring of public sector enterprises. In March, the Governmentproduced a budget covering for the first time both the Central Government andthe rest of the public sector. It addressed the crisis with a wide-rangingprogram devoted to raising public sector revenues, tightening public expendi-ure policies through improved control procedures and increasing the efficiencyin the public sector. These measures included increases in excise and importduties as well as motor vehicle license fees and sizeable increases in theprices of consumer goods, such as rice and cooking oil, and public services.In July, the Government entered into a one-year Stand-by Agreement with theIMF which became effective in August and made it possible for Guyana to obtainSDR 15 million over a twelve-month period in the form of one credit trancheand access to the compensatory financing facility. In August, the Governmentadopted a further comprehensive set of policies--mainly in the fiscal andcredit fields--to restrain domestic demand and mobilize domsstic reoources.These included a 10% sales tax, an increase in contribution rates and anextension of coverage of the National Insurance Scheme, a reduction of directand indirect subsidies to consumers, increase of deposit and lending ratesin banks, and a cut-back in imports.

10. Based on the success of the Stand-by Agreement, a three-year ExternalFund Facility (EFF) was negotiated in June 1979. The EFF arrangement envisagedthat no widespread wage and salary increases in public sector would be allowed.Also, it was agreed that remaining subsidies would be removed progressively,price controls eliminated gradually, energy prices adjusted to reflect fuelprice increases, bank lending and deposit rates increased, and commercialarrears eliminated during 1980. Limits were agreed on with respect to netdomestic assets of the Bank of Guyana, net credit by the banking system to thepublic sector and contracting of new external debt.

11. The 1979 budget did not provide for any wage increase in the publicsector. In July 1979 a wage dispute precipitated a strike in the alumina andbauxite sector, causing a sharp reduction in the industry's output. The sugarworkers' union and clerical workers' union joined the strike in sympathy.

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IWhile the adjustment of fuel prices for the transport sector was maintained

during 1979, the sharp increases in fuel costs in mid-79 and in December 1979

were not fully reflected in electricity price although some adjustments were

introduced during the year these developments were reflected in a deterioration

of public sector savings. As a result, in order to finance the investment

program, the Government was forced to increase borrowing from the banking

system well beyond the target set forth in the EFF, and the agreement was

suspended in late 1979.

12. The Government took a number of steps in the first few months of

1980 toward increasing national savings, promoting the recovery of production

and exports, and raising the productivity of workers, whose real incomes have

dropped considerably during the last two or three years. In addition to the

establishment of production targets in the major export sectors, the Government

introduced the following measures in the 1980 budget proposal:

(a) an increase in electricity tariffs in phased quarterly amounts so

that average tariffs would exceed the December 1979 levels by

about 33%, and an increase in tariffs for road, air and water

transport;

(b) increase in farmgate prices for rice;

(c) the introduction of an 8% consumption tax on all imports (except

imports of price-controlled goods and imports of major publicsector corporations and government projects); and

(d) an increase of 37% in the excise tax on tobacco.

13. At the same time, the Government announced some measures aimed at

moderately increasing the real income of the population and providing incentives

for production, including:

(a) a wage increase of 5% across the board for the public sector

(except for sugar and bauxite sectors), provision of a 7% increasefor sugar and bauxite workers, an additional 5% "skill premium"

for specified categories of workers, and incentive wages related

to improved productivity;

(b) a 25% increase in personal income tax allowances;

(c) an upward adjustment in pension payments and abolition ofdifferences in social security payments between urban andrural recipients; and

(d) new pricing policies to standardize retail prices of goodssold in public corporations which would in many cases decreasemark-up levels.

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14. Additional measures for introduction in the short and medium termare presently under review, including the full adjustment of electricity tariffsto reflect increased fuel costs, the elimination of consumer subsidies, thereview of farmgate rice prices and subsidies for inputs used by rice farmers,the assessment of interest rate structure, and measures to promote increasedoutput of manufactured exports.

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II. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND CONSTRAINTS

15. Guyana's development strategy aims at accelerating economic growth,

generating employment and strengthening the balance of payments through the

development and expansion of export generating and efficient import-substituting

activities. WQhile the main productive sectors of sugar, rice and bauxite will

receive major emphasis, a significant effort to expand production of nontradi-

tional manufactured goods is also underway. In view of the small size and

openness of the economy, its limited linkages and its relatively undeveloped

resource base, the development strategy requires substantial levels of imported

raw materials and capital goods. At the same time, it depends upon increasing

the productivity levels of agricultural, mining and other workers, and improving

the technical and managerial capability of the country's human resources.

16. In the last three years, the country has undergone a painful adjust-

ment process in an attempt to stabilize the balance of payments, reduce its

commercial arrears, and adjust consumption to a level commensurate with

resource availabilities and investment requirements for sustained GDP growth.

This adjustment process, while necessary, has to some extent impeded the

achievement of Guyana's long-term development goals. This difficulty was

highlighted in 1979, when adverse weather, labor problems, the shortage of

foreign exchange and a deteriorating terms of trade contributed to serious

economic setbacks. These reverses have underscored the importance of reconcil-

ing the short-term exigencies of Guyana's adjustment process with the require-

ments for achieving consistent economic growth and employment generation over

the medium and longer term. Moreover, they have emphasized the need to take

steps toward resolving long-standing constraints to increasing and sustaining

investment, savings and output levels.

17. Guyana's prospects for economic recovery during the next two years

depend largely on the ability of both the public and private sector to maintain

and fully utilize existing productive capacity and to improve the productivity

of labor. In this regard, increased availability of foreign exchange is an

important priority. In the past three years, the shortage of foreign exchange

and licensing procedures have seriously affected production and investment

levels in the economy. Inadequate supply of fertilizer, pesticides and

agricultural machinery has impeded the development of the main agricultural

sectors; at the same time, difficulty in obtaining imported raw materials and

spare parts has led to declining output in the manufacturing sector, and the

deterioration of equipment and infrastructure. In both the public and private

sectors, the unavailability of foreign exchange, together with the shortfall

of savings, has contributed to the depletion of inventories and capital stock.

The provision of adequate foreign exchange to meet the input and investment

requirements of the agricultural and manufacturing sectors is a crucial

requirement for the resumption of a positive growth path. A program presently

under consideration would be directed toward meeting these requirements; in

particular, it would provide for the establishment of an Export Development

Fund which would contribute foreign exchange to the export manufacturing

sector.

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18. The maintenance of stable industrial relations and the improvementof labor productivity are also crucial to renewed economic growth during thenext two years. In an attempt to ameliorate labor relations, which deterioratedseriously in 1979 when the Government was unable to keep its previous commit-ment to raise minimum wages, the 1980 budget contained an announcement of anew wage package, providing for basic wage increases of between 5% to 7%, askill premium of another 5% for workers in the Central Government; the wagepolicy is to be related to productivity and tax free productivity incentiveschemes, in addition to those which are already in place, are being formulated.Considerable room exists for rationalization of such incentive schemes, bothproposed and in place. For example, in the case of rice production, theexisting incentive scheme is oriented to total output; better results mightbe achieved if incentives were geared to increased production levels ofindividual farmers.

19. The rationalization of pricing policy is another area which couldincrease production levels, promote more efficient use of economic resources,and bolster national savings over the short term. In this regard, the Govern-ment has already increased farmgate prices for rice; further increases mightbe required, however, if the return to the farmer is to be maintained in theface of rising production costs. At the same time, the provision of substan-tial subsidies on a number of agricultural inputs should be reviewed in orderto insure its consistency with the most economic use of inputs and withfarmgate prices. In the case of electricity, the adequate pricing of energyis essential, not only from the standpoint of improving the electricitycompany's financial position, but also to encourage efficient use of a scarceand costly resource. In general, the Government administers a wide-rangingprice control system which poses a heavy burden on the civil service. Thereis need to examine the negative impact of low prices on production of suchitems as construction materials and food products, as well as overall pricerelationships and their impact on efficiency and welfare. Out of such areview, more rational procedures could be developed to limit such controls toa few key items.

20. Over the medium and longer term, unemployment will increasinglybecome the most critical problem facing the country. An additional 22,000people are projected to enter the labor force by 1982. To cope with thischallenge successfully, the Government intends to use all its resources toencourage the development of the economy along an employment-oriented growthpath in which exports of goods and services, efficient import substitutionand the development of the private sector figure prominently. An importantpolicy consideration will be to emphasize training of the young in productiveoccupations where there exists a job-creation potential and to develop theskills of those already in or about to enter the labor force.

21. The achievement of the country's medium and long-term developmentgoals will to a large extent depend on the successful execution of the publicinvestment program. The pace of project execution continued to be slow in1979. Shortages of skilled technicians, institutional weaknesses, insufficientcoordination and monitoring of project implementation and the shortage oflocal counterpart accounted for the delays. In addition, high fuel costs,delays in decision making and higher than expected risk contingencies charged

-9-

by contractors operating in Guyana have led to sizable cost overruns onseveral large export-oriented projects. The timely completion of theseprojects is essential if Guyana is to expand export production over the nextfour to five years.

22. Increased levels of private investment during the next few years willalso be essential to contribute to output growth and improve the balance ofpayments position. Private investment has faltered during the past fouryears, in reflection of scarce foreign exchange, the lack of clear policiesin relation to private investment, and an apparent lack of investment oppor-tunities. In an attempt to relieve these problems, in 1978 the Governmentintroduced an investment code designed to create "rules of the game" for theprivate sector. Recently, the International Finance Corporation made itsfirst investment in the country. In the last few months, foreign mining andmineral companies have demonstrated growing interest in establishing a presencein Guyana. Nevertheless, the private sector continues to remain wary of theGovernment's attitude. Given the managerial problems confronting the publicsector, and the magnitude of the country's economic difficulties, the Govern-ment should mobilize all available financial and entrepreneurial resourcesin the public and private sector to revive economic growth. In this context,specific institutions may need to be created and put into the hands of competentexecutives. While some steps have been taken in this direction, the privatesector could play a more active role by working with the Government in anadvisory capacity on bodies such as the Planning Commission and public sectorcorporations.

23. If gross domestic investment is to be maintained at the levelsrequired for sustained economic growth, measures to increase the level ofsavings in the economy continue to be required. Largely as a consequenceof greatly reduced production levels, gross national savings fell to 10%of GDP in 1979 from 14% the previous year. It continues to be vital for theGovernment to undertake measures to increase the savings generation capacity;these should focus on fuller utilization of existing productive capacity andthe rationalization of pricing policy. In addition, the interest rate policyneeds to be reviewed, since existing interest rates are negative in real termsand may be contributing to reduced levels of household savings as well ascapital flight.

24. The external debt service ratio has been increasing rapidly in recentyears and now presents a serious debt management problem. Despite a refinanc-ing operation in 1980, which improved Guyana's debt service profile moderately,in the years ahead Guyana will be faced with sharply increased amortizationpayments on the external public debt, resulting from the nationalizationactions and increased borrowing in the Eurodollar market for investmentpurposes in the 1970s. The external debt service is expected to average about18% of total exports during 1980-82. Gross external public capital inflowswould have to average about US$130 million annually through 1982 if Guyana isto meet its import requirements, service its external debt and graduallyimprove its liquidity. Over the long term, mobilizing the required levels ofpublic sector capital inflows will depend upon an improved capacity to prepareand execute projects and increased levels of public sector savings. For the

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near term, a substantial inflow of quickly disbursing nonproject externalassistance is needed if Guyana is to resume economic growth without increasingits heavy external debt burden.

25. One of the most serious development issues presently confrontingGuyana is the deterioration in the terms of trade in recent years, which hascontributed to a steady downward trend in real gross domestic income. Thissituation largely reflects the heavy petroleum import bill, which in 1980 isestimated to account for almost one-third of import value. The development ofa balanced energy program aimed at reducing reliance on imported oil isaccordingly of critical importance to Guyana's economic equilibrium. In thisregard, the Government might consider a number of measures which could reducefuel imports over the short- and medium-term. These might include:

(a) review of the existing structure of electricity tariffs witha view to instituting a system designed to discourageexcessive energy use;

(b) systematic maintenance and rehabilitation of existing thermalplants, reduction in transmission and distribution losses,completion of interconnection and frequency conversion nowunder way, and conversion, wherever appropriate, of existingoil-fired plants into plants which could operate on liquidfuels as well as wood waste;

(c) increasing the capacity of the captive bagasse-fired plants andfeeding the surplus power into the public system, basing newthermal plants on use of wood waste and crop residues andinvesting in solar grain dryers rather than in oil-fired graindryers;

(d) development of small hydropower sites which could come on streamin the next 3-4 years;

(e) exploration for oil and gas both on and offshore (contractswith private companies for such operations have been signed inrecent months);

(f) development of interconnections with systems of neighboringcountries and reaching agreement on purchase of power from them;and

(g) development of a widespread energy conservation program, startingwith policy-oriented studies. (In this regard, the Governmentmay wish to seek technical assistance from external agencies.)

26. Over the longer term, Guyana harbors considerable potential for thedevelopment of substantial hydropower resources at a number of alternativesites in the western part of the country. One promising potential site is

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Upper Mazaruni, which would have a capacity of 750 MW in its first stage of

development. The development of hydropower resources on such a scale is

contingent upon a number of factors. Essential is the identification of

adequate markets. In this regard, the concomitant construction of an aluminium

smelter would be vital to the economic feasibility of Upper Mazaruni; neighbor-

ing countries might also provide additional markets for this project. A

second important requirement is the Government's ability to raise and service

substantial levels of external financing to execute the project. The Upper

Mazaruni development is presently estimated to cost almost US$1 billion; an

aluminum smelter would cost an equal amount. To mobilize these levels of

resources will be difficult, and at minimum will require that the Government

greatly improve economic and financial management during the next few years.

Finally, a project of this scale will impose a considerable burden on the

economy. Immediate steps should be taken to study the capacity of the con-

struction industry. Follow-up actions to be taken at an early date might

include promotion of the private contracting industry, both local and foreign;

investments in construction-related industries; and programs for training of

skilled craftsmen, mechanics, quarry operators, draftsmen, quantity surveyors,

work supervisors and contract administrators. In addition, if such project is

to proceed without facing major bottlenecks, it would be necessary to ensure

the availability of other, higher-level, technical and managerial personnel as

well as of the required infrastructure. Apart from these actions, the Govern-

ment will have to attract the participation of major aluminum companies in

providing technology, investment, management and markets for the proposed

aluminum smelter. Should these requirements be met, the large-scale develop-

ment of hydropower holds the potential of substantially relieving Guyana's

foreign exchange constraints.

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III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTHENT PROGRAM

27. Since presentation in the 1980 Budget Speech, the Government hasrevised the investment program for the period 1980-82 in light of the expectedavailability of financing. The program has been reviewed by Bank staff andfound to be appropriate in both size and composition, given the currenteconomic situation, prospective financial resources and the developmentpriorities of the Government. The projects in the revised 1980-82 program areessentially those which are ongoing and for which external financing isavailable in addition to a number of new projects for which financing is beingrequested. During the current year, the State Planning Commission will reviewand assess the longer term development requirements of the country and willbegin identifying new projects necessary to support its long-term developmentstrategy. For this reason, the investment program has not been projectedbeyond 1982.

28. The near-term development strategy envisages exports becoming themain engine of growth with major emphasis being placed on sugar, rice, bauxite,forestry, fishing and manufactured products. Consequently, the projectsincluded in the program aim primarily at increasing the volume and the qualityof production for export. In addition, the program includes import-substitu-tion projects in consumer goods and food items. The projected expansion inthe productive sectors of the economy must be supplemented by adequate infra-structure and the public sector investment program includes expenditures thatreflect the needs in this area. While aiming at substantial productionincreases, the projects in the investment program are unlikely to significantlyreduce the level of unemployment, which is estimated at about 20% during thenext two or three years.

29. Total public capital expenditures are estimated at G$1,306 millionduring 1980-82, an average of G$435 million or about 23% of GDP per year. TheCentral Government is expected to implement about 70% of the investment programwith the rest of the public sector responsible for the remaining 30%. Approxi-mately one-third of the total program consists of small domestically financedprojects which at this time do not lend themselves to appraisal by externallending agencies. These projects, if consolidated into a cohesive program,could be presented to external donors for technical and financial assistance.

30. In line with Guyana's development goals of export-oriented economicgrowth, about 75% of total public sector investment is allocated to theproductive sectors of the economy and related infrastructure. Agriculture(including forestry and fishery) accounts for almost 40% of the total invest-ment program. The aim of the agricultural projects is to increase productionin major export crops, to diversify away from sugar into other export cropsand to increase production of other crops for domestic consumption. The majorportion of this investment would be in three irrigation projects for riceproduction (the Mahaica-Mahaicony-Abary (MMA), Black Bush and Tapakuma projects),financed by the IDB, IBRD and other external lenders. These projects wouldstart yielding returns by 1981 and more than double the volume of rice output for

- 13 -

export by the mid-1980s. Also included in the program is the Second RiceModernization Project financed by the USAID, which aims at minimizing post-harvest losses and improving the processing and marketing systems in orderto increase rice output for exports. The volume of rice exports for 1981 isforecast at 118,000 tons, compared with approximately 66,000 tons in 1977. By1985 the ongoing investments in projects for rice production and processingwould generate output sufficient to export more than 300,000 tons per annum.Other agricultural projects emphasize increase in dairy production, oil palm,and food crop production. The oil palm development project and the foodcrop production and marketing projects would significantly reduce food importswhile fully exploiting local resources, thus generating foreign exchangesavings, employment and income.

31. The program includes projects for strengthening the planning andexecution capacity of the agricultural sector. An agricultural sector planningproject financed by USAID would allow for more comprehensive planning evalua-tion of programs and project analysis of data, monitoring and assessment ofthe sector. IDB has expressed interest in assisting with the training of farmmechanics, the improvement of machinery and equipment maintenance and thedevelopment of an appropriate agro-services program. In addition, the programincludes major projects for the extraction of tropical hardwoods (the UpperDemerara Forestry Project and the Forestry Equipment Credit), a bagasse particleboard factory, the development of inland fishing resources and shrimp harvestingand processing. The extraction and processing of high-value tropical hardwoodswould be substantially increased by the Upper Demerara Forestry Project,which is expected to start producing by 1981. As a result, exports of timber areexpected to rise from 13,400 cubic meters in 1977 to about 58,000 cubic metersin 1985. The bagasse residual from sugarcane processing would be utilized todevelop particle board to be exported primarily to the North American market.Investments in the fisheries sector are aimed at increasing the capacity ofthe fish port in Georgetown and improving fish processing facilities inaddition to developing inland freshwater fish. These investments are expectedto increase exports of shrimp besides making available the bycatch as well asthe freshwater fish for local sale to help meet the nutritional needs of thepopulation.

32. Projects in the manufacturing and mining sectors account for aboutone-fifth of investment outlays. These include expansion of mining andprocessing facilities for calcined bauxite, a feasibility study for Kaolinmining benefication and completion of a glass factory,a vegetable oil mill,a cotton textile mill, a bicycle factory, a leather tannery and a boot andshoe factory. A project for expanding the cast-iron foundry and new industrialdevelopment projects, including the creation of a bottle plant and a sealsand packaging factory have also been added to the 1980-82 program. The aboveprojects aim at developing import-substituting industries and promotingnontraditional exports. The new investments in the bauxite industry, togetherwith ongoing expansion programs, would increase the production capacity forcalcined bauxite by about 60%. Further development of the bauxite operationsis anticipated through a stripping and mining project which is expected tocommence in August 1980 and take about 20 months for completion. Efficiencyin bauxite operations would be enhanced by the installation of an electrostaticprecipitator to recover bauxite dust for processing into calcined bauxite

- 14 -

while foreign technical support would help in promoting improved operationof the alumina plant. A feasibility study for Kaolin mining and processingwould determine the range of products which could be produced, and identifythe appropriate process design in the benefication plant to develop newlines of exports. The glass factory, which would utilize Guyana's silica-concentrated sands, would initially help reduce imports of glass containersand sheet glass and, at a later stage, develop product lines for exportwithin the CARICOM region. The cotton textile mill, built with grant assist-ance from the People's Republic of China, would begin to produce fabricsfor the domestic and CARICOM markets. The bicycle factory, leather tanneryand boot and shoe factory would substitute imports and create new jobs. Asmall hand tool project to satisfy the need for a regular and continuoussupply of tools needed in agriculture is under preparation. The new industrieswhich would be promoted would be geared to supply the domestic and foreignmarkets with the purpose of increasing foreign exchange earnings and creatingnew jobs.

33. Infrastructure projects in communications, power and transportincluded in the program are essential to support the production-orientedinvestment program and have been allocated about 18% of the total program.The major investments in this sector would be to link Georgetown withthe Corentyne power system so as to make better use of existing generatingcapacity and to construct road systems to support development of forestryand agriculture. Apart from the completion of feasibility studies for thedevelopment of Guyana's hydropower resources, investments in the power sectorhave been planned to upgrade management capabilities and improve the operationand maintenance of existing power facilities. In addition, investments havebeen planned to develop bulk-handling facilities at shipping points for exportof rice, rum, shrimp and lumber.

34. Among the projects included in the social sector--which have beenallocated almost 15% of the total program--the education, training, health careand water supply projects account for the bulk of the capital expenditures. Asubstantial proportion of the amount allocated to education would be utilizedto complete the IBRD/IDA-financed Second Education Project which was approvedin 1975. A project to upgrade the levels of existing managerial skills has beenincluded. In the area of health care two projects, one financed by IDB and theother to be financed by USAID,to improve medical and public health services inrural areas have been included. The projects would develop an integrated three-tier system for supervisory, support and referral services. The provision ofan extended water supply system is crucial to the development of the Guyaneseeconomy and projects to that effect have been included in the investment program.These investments include the rehabilitation of the Georgetown Water Supply, theLinden Water Supply System, the CIDA-financed Waterwell Drilling Project and theRural Wells Program sponsored by the Netherlands.

35. Capital expenditures in the miscellaneous category include projectssuch as rehabilitation of public buildings, community and youth developmentprograms; these investments account for about one-tenth of the total programand approximately 90% of these expenditures are forecast to be financed fromlocal sources.

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36. Guyana's efforts to achieve the objectives of its development programin the medium term depend to a large extent on substitution of domestic hydro-power for imported fuels and on timely execution of the three major irrigationprojects (namely the Tapakuma, MMA and Black Bush projects), the Upper DemeraraForestry project, the Second Rice Modernization program, and some ongoingindustrial projects. In order to ensure that technical expertise is availablefor completing these projects on a timely basis, the external agencies have

provided financing for consultancy services and training of Cuyanese staffboth in project management and export marketing. Shortages of buildingmaterials and lack of sufficient local currency for counterpart financinghave affected Guyana's project execution capacity in recent years. Externalfinancing of local costs should help alleviate these constraints.

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IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

A. Output and Expenditure

37. Guyana possesses the resource endowment to substantially increaseoutput and improve the well-being of its people. Prospects for sustainedeconomic growth depend on the continuing development of the country's exportpotential, the timely execution of the investment program, and the introductionor continuation of the economic and financial policies discussed in Chapter II.In the absence of adverse weather conditions, renewed labor problems, orfurther petroleum price hikes, and based on output levels during the firstfive months of the year, real GDP should be able to increase by 6.5% in 1980,a rate which in part reflects recovery from the economic contraction in 1979.Thereafter, real GDP growth rates averaging about 5% per annum could beattained. Beyond 1982, economic growth might accelerate moderately, given thecompletion of the main ongoing projects. Long-term growth prosects willdepend on the country's ability to develop the hydropower resources of thecountry and on the speed at which the private sector invests in new export-oriented and import-substituting activities.

38. To attain the projected levels of economic growth, the level ofgross domestic investment will probably need to increase from about 21% of GDPin 1979 to an average of 25% during 1980-82. This relatively high level ofinvestment allows for some rebuilding of inventories and the replacement ofcapital stock, both of which have been seriously depleted during the last twoyears. As a consequence, it is likely to have an immediate impact on raisingoutput. To maintain this level of investment in 1980, when a serious deteri-oration in the terms of trade is anticipated, may require some compression ofreal consumption per capita. Given the achievement of the above GDP growthtargets, after 1980 this level of investment appears to be consistent withslight increases in real per capita consumption, averaging somewhat lessthan 1% per annum in 1981-82.

B. Financing of the Public Sector Investment Program

39. To finance a public sector investment program estimated at G$390million in 1980, as well as external debt amortization payments amounting toG$167 million, a determined effort to mobilize substantial public sectorsavings will be necessary. Assuming the Government transfers fuel priceincreases to electricity consumers, takes steps toward rationalizing pricingpolicies in agriculture, maintains its incomes policy, and is successful inincreasing output in the main productive sectors, public sector savings areprojected to reach about G$84 million in 1980. Net domestic borrowing by thepublic sector is expected to provide another G$100 million. Accordingly,approximately G$370 million will be required from external sources. Ofthis amount, disbursements of project specific assistance already committed isprojected at G$164 million. After allowance for committed program (CDF-type) 1/

1/ The Caribbean Development Facility was established during the firstmeeting of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation Economic Development,held at World Bank Headquarters, June 19-24, 1978. It is a transitionalemergency financing facility to cover local costs and cost overruns ofdevelopment projects in Caribbean countries, including Guyana, withthe major contributors being the US, UK, Venezuela, Canada and OPECSpecial Fund.

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Table 2: FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, 1980-82

Current G$ million As % of GDP1980 1981 1982 1980 1981 1982

Uses 557 614 589 34.0 31.9 26.9

External Amortization TTTN T -70.2 8Public Sector Capital 390 445 470 23.8 23.1 21.5

Expenditures

Sources 557 614 589 34.0 31.9 26.9

Domestic Resources 187 224 270 11.4 11.6 12.3Public Sector, Savings 84 130 200 5.1 6.7 9.1

Capital Revenues 2 2 3 0.1 0.1 0.1

Net Domestic Borrowing 101 92 67 6.2 4.8 3.1

External Resources /a 370 390 319 22.6 20.2 14.6

Committed 301 180 161 18.3 9.3 7.4

Official Project Loans 164 165 160 9.9 8.6 7.3Commercial , 85 15 1 5.2 0.8 0.1CDF-type Assistance 52 - - 3.2 -

Financing Gap 69 210 158 4.2 10.9 7.2Project Specific 26 60 100 1.6 3.1 4.6

CDF-type Assistance 43 150 58 2.6 7.8 2.7

/a Includes external grants as follows: 1980, G$25.0 million; 1981,GS$26.0 million; and 1982, G$28.0 million. These amounts are includedas current transfers in the balance of payments (Table 3.1 and 3.4 of the

Statistical Appendix). The gross disbursement figures in the balance of

payments are, therefore, correspondingly lower than those shown here.

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and commercial borrowing, a financing gap of G$69 million (about US$27 million)remains. Additional project financing of G$26 million (US$10 million) hasbeen requested from external sources. This leaves G$43 million (US$17 million)to be raised externally in program-type assistance for disbursement in thelast half of 1980. 1/

40. The Government's financing plan for the 1981-82 program appears tobe viable. The plan assumes improved output performance, the rationalizationof pricing policies, and a reduction of public consumption from 26% of GDPin 1979 to 22% in 1982 through limitations on Central Government hirings aswell as on outlays for other goods and services. This would be sufficient toincrease public sector savings to about 9% of GDP, adequate to finance over40% of public capital expenditures in 1982. The plan envisions reducedreliance on the banking system and will require new project financing fromexternal sources in the amount of US$63 million during 1981-82. In addition,disbursements of non-project assistance from external sources, amounting toabout US$82 million during 1981-82, will be required.

C. Balance of Payments

41. Balance of payments management will require achievement of severalobjectives, in addition to the basic goal of maintaining imports at a level.sufficient to support the projected levels of economic growth. These include(1) progressive reduction of the current account deficit as a percentage ofGDP (apart from the balance of payments impact of large externally financedinvestment projects such as hydropower development); (2) progress toward theelimination of commercial arrears, (3) rebuilding of depleted foreign exchangereserve levels, and (4) improvement in the structure of external debt.

42. Merchandise export receipts are projected to increase by about45% in 1980. The increase reflects a number of factors, including recoveryfrom low export volume the previous year, increased production in sugar,expansion in the bauxite/aluminum sector, and favorable price developments forall three major exports. At the same time, as a result of greatly increasedpetroleum prices, the requirements of the investment program, and the needto increase import of inputs and spare parts in order to achieve projectedlevels of GDP growth, import value will need to increase by about 40%.As a consequence, in 1980 the current account deficit is projected to beequivalent to about 12% of GDP.

43. Beyond 1980, export prospects are reasonably favorable. The volumeof sugar exports is expected to increase by about 6% in 1981-2 as a resultof new plantings and increased yields. Rice export volumes should increasesubstantially as a result of rising output from new acreage under doublecropping and propagation of improved seed varieties. Bauxite export volumesshould also expand significantly as investments to increase production capacitybegin to yield results. Prices for Guyana's three major exports are expectedto remain relatively favorable through 1982. At the same time, increasedlumber processing capacity is expected to come on stream in 1982. Othernontraditional exports, while relatively small in absolute amounts, are alsoexpected to grow at a fast pace as a result of increased availability of rawmaterials and spares. Based on favorable price trends for exports, assuming

1/ For the period from July 1, 1980 to June 30, 1981, CDF-type commitmentsrequired amount to about US$60 million.

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Table 3: GUYANA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1978-82

(% of GDP)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 63.1 59.0 68.9 70.1 73.2

Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services -62.8 -67.5 -76.3 77.0 77.6

Resource Balance 0.3 - 8.5 - 7.4 - 6.9 - 4.4

Net Factor Services - 4.6 - 5.9 - 5.5 - 5.4 - 5.0

Current Transfers - 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6

Current Account Balance - 5.5 -13.9 -12.2 -11.5 - 8.8

Net Public Disbursements 8.0 4.2 10.6 10.1 7.8

Gross Disbursements ( 20.2) ( 25.4) ( 21.1) ( 18.9) ( 13.2)Amortization (-12.2) (-21.2) (-10.5) (- 8.8) (- 5.4)

Other Capital 1.5 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.4

Capital Account Balance 9.5 3.6 12.2 11.7 9.2

Overall Balance - 4.0 10.3 -- -0.2 -0.4

Change in Reserves (- increase) - 2.4 9.4 -- - --

Arrears - 2.1 0.9 - - 0.2 - 0.4

Government Funds 0.5 -- - -- --

Memorandum Items

Gross National Savings 13.6 8.4 13.8 14.4 16.1

Gross Domestic Investment 19.2 22.3 26.0 25.9 24.8

Real GDP Growth (%) 0.2 - 3.0 6.5 5.0 5.0

Source: Table 3.4, mission estimates.

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no precipitous increases in real petroleum prices, and assuming that non-essential imports remain limited, the current account deficit is projected todecrease to about llZ in 1981 and to less than 9% of GDP in 1982, averagingapproximately 10% of GDP during the period.

44. The external capital inflows required by the public sector in1980-82 1/ have been estimated at US$423 million 2/. About 60%--or US$252million--of the public sector requirements, has already been committed.Approximately US$170 million from new commitments would be required fromexternal donors. Of this amount, about US$70 million is expected to beprovided through new project loans and about US$100 million would be neededin the form of disbursements of new CDF-type assistance. Such CDF-typeassistance would provide foreign exchange to meet essential import needsof the productive sectors of the economy, while its counterpart in localcurrency would contribute to the financing of local costs of projects includedin the Government's investment program (see paras. 27-36). If externalresources in these amounts are mobilized, it should be possible to reducesomewhat commercial arrears in 1981-82 below their current level. A moresizeable reduction in arrears, and the necessary rebuilding of foreignexchange reserves, would require substantial additional balance of paymentsassistance, including what might be provided from the IMF.

45. The above financing program would permit some progress towardachieving improved balance of payments viability. Essential import levelscould be maintained, arrears reduced, and existing debt service obligationswould be fulfilled. At the same time, the current account deficit on thebalance of payments would still be at a level which might be difficult tosustain over the longer term, and the process of rebuilding internationalreserves and restructuring external debt barely started. In view of antici-pated increases in export volume after 1982, when several major export-orientedprojects are expected to come on stream, more rapid progress is expectedtoward achieving the latter goals during 1983-1985. At present, it is apparentthat the adjustment process will need to continue for the next four or fiveyears, during which sound economic and financial management will be essential.

1/ See paras. 39-40 and Table 2.

2/ This figure includes about US$30 million in expected external grants whichare classified as current transfers in Table 3.1 and 3.4 of the StatisticalAppendix. The external capital inflows in those Tables are, therefore,correspondingly smaller.

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Creditworthiness

46. The servicing of public external debt obligations has become anincreasing burden in Guyana in recent years with declining export receipts inmost of these years and increased amortization liabilities, in particular fromnationalization loans and medium-term borrowings in commercial markets. Theservice on the public and publicly guaranteed debt increased from 4% offoreign exchange earnings in 1975 to about 30% in 1979, a ratio which in partreflects a depressed level of foreign exchange earnings that year. In 1980,it is projected to drop back to 22%, to 20% in 1981 and 14% in 1982. Providedthat the authorities take prompt action to institute measures to cope with thesevere financial difficulties confronting them, and that a substantial part ofthe required external resources are provided on concessional terms by thedonor community, Guyana may be considered creditworthy for limited borrowingon conventional terms.

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GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

1. The report contains a list of major ongoing projects, a listof projects for which external financing will be sought during theperiod 1980-82, individual project descriptions and individual technicalassistance profiles. Each list contains the name of the project, theexecuting agency, the expected lender(s), if any, the total cost, theexternal financing obtained or required and the counterpart contributionrequired during the 1980/82 period. The individual descriptions containadditional information which would be of interest to potential donorsor lenders, including technical assistance requirements and the presentstatus of the project.

2. Data for these project lists, which will be presented at themeeting of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Developmentscheduled for June 23-28, 1980, were provided by the Government of Guyana.The project lists for 1980-82 reflect the developmental strategy of theGovernment of Guyana, as outlined in the Economic Memorandum datedJune 8, 1980.

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GUYANA: MAJOR ONGOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING Page 1 of 2

(USS million)

Total External Financing Counterpart FinancingCentral Governmacnt Cost Amount Source Amount %

Agriculture, Forest-y and Fisb-ri zr

Mahaica-Mahaicory-Abary 78.4 51.6 IDE, USAID (CDF) 26.8 34.2Black Bush Irrigation 49.0 36.1 IDF, IDA, IFAD, USAID 12.9 26.3Tapakuma Irrigation 45.7 29.6 IBRD, OPEC, ODA, CDB, USAID (CDF) 16.1 35.2Installation of pumps 5.9 1.7 EXIM Bank 4.2 71.2Onverwagt Irrigation 1.5 0.4 DPRR 1.1 73.3U.N. Mapping 2.3 1.9 U.N. 0.4 17.4Geodetic Surveys 1.1 0.9 ODA 0.2 18.2Topographic Surveys 1.0 0.8 CIDA 0.2 20.0Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory 1.8 1.1 CIDA, UN 0.7 55.2Artificial Insemination Service 0.2 0.1 FAO 0.1 50.0Eradication of Acoushi Ants 0.1 0.05 FAO 0.05 50.0Grain Legume Program 0.3 0.2 IICA 0.1 33.3Soil Research 0.1 0.1 SAREC - -Establishment of Field Facilities - CARDI 0.7 0.5 EDP 0.2 28.6Agricultural Sector Planning 4.4 2.8 USAID 1.6 36.4M.A.R.D.S. Repair Workshop 3.5 2.0 DPRR 1.5 42.8Seed Farm Development 2.2 0.5 USAID 1.7 66.6Corn-Soya Bean Project - CARICOM .. .. CDBConstruction of Fertilizer Bonds 0.2 0.2 FAO - -Baseline Study 0.1 0.1 USAID - -Rural Development East Bank Berbice Study 0.2 0.2 EDF - -Coast-Line Mapping 0.2 0.2 ODA - -T.A. Livestock Development Project .. .. ODAForestry Equipment Loan ** 7.8 7.8 CIDA - -UN Forestry Training Project 2.7 2.0 UN 0.7 25.9Upper Demerara Forestry Project 31.8 27.0 IBRD, IDA, EDF, IDB 4.8 15.1Forestry Technical Assistance Program 1.1 0.9 CIDA 0.2 18.2Fisheries Research .. .. IDRCDemerara Fish Port Complex .. .. JAPAN

TourismTourism Study 0.06 0.06 EDF - -

IndustryTextile Mill 27.7 19.3 China 8.4 30.3Glass Factory * 18.0 6.0 Cosmmercial Banks 12.0 66.6Vegetable Oil Mill 6.0 .. GDRSeashell Grinding Study 0.07 0.07 USAID

PowerT.A. Small Hydroconsultancy 0.8 0.8 ODA

Transportation and InfrastructureDemerara Harbor Bridge - Phase II 14.6 .. ODA, Commercial BanksEast Bank Berbice Road 8.6 3.9 EDF 4.7 54.5Feeder Roads Project 12.0 7.1 USAID, ODA 4.9 40.8East Coast Road Improvement 14.7 2.5 IDA 12.2 83.0Upper Demerara Forestry Road 6.7 4.4 CDB 2.3 34.3Essequibo Sea Defenses 25.5 15.3 ODA 10.2 40.0Melanie Damishana Workshop 4.1 .. GDRPurchase of Passenger Vessels 4.5 3.8 The Netherlands 0.7 15.5Purchase of Cargo Vessels 4.5 3.8 The Netherlands 0.7 15.5Pilot Launches Purchase 1.5 1.3 The Netherlands, ODA 0.2 13.3Dredging Equipment Purchase 1.3 1.3 ODA - -Civil Aviation Aircraft 1.4 1.4 ODA - -Rehabilitation of Timehri Airport 1.5 0.4 CIDA 0.1 20.0

Water SupplyWells in Rural and Hinterland Ares 6.0 1.5 The Netherlands 4.5 75.0Improvement of Georgetown Water Supply 5.0 1.0 Brazilian Line of Credit 4.0 80.0

System *Linden Water Supply System 2.8 2.2 CIDA 0.6 21.4Water Well Drilling 0.9 0.9 CIDA - -

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GUYANA: MAJOR ONUOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING Page 2 of 2(US$ million)

Total External Financing Counterpart FinancingCentral Government (cont'n) Cost Amount Source Amount %

EducationNetherlands Aid Education Projects 1.5 1.5 The Netherlands - -Second Education Project 19.8 9.4 IBRD 10.4 52.5Public Sector Manpower Training Project 1.0 0.7 USAID 0.3 30.0Miscellaneous Scholarships .. .. Various External SourcesInstitute for Applied Tech. & Science 2.0 1.1 CIDA, UN 0.9 45.0Management Services Training 0.4 0.4 CIDA -

HealthConstruction and Rehabilitation of Rural 2.5 1.5 The Netherlands 1.0 40.0

Health Centers & HospitalsConstruction of New Amsterdam Hospital .. .. ChinaReferral Hospital Training System 10.9 8.8 IDB 2.1 19.3Medex Program 5.8 5.0 USAID, IDRC 0.8 13.8Leprosy Control Unit 0.3 0.3 USAID 0.04 12.0Training of Commmnity Health Workers 0.2 0.2 The Netherlands - -Institutional Strengthening of Health 0.4 0.4 IDB 0.03 6.6

Ministry

HousingLaing Avenue Flats 1.3 0.8 The Netherlands - -Urban Planning Projects .. 0.8 U.N.

MiscellaneousCommunity Development Projects 2.5 1.0 USAID, EDF 1.5 60.0Mission Administered Funds .. .. CIDA

Remainder of Public Sector

Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesMilk Plant (LIDCO) .. .. EDF, DenmarkSecond Rice Modernization (GRB) 22.0 16.5 USAID 5.5 25.0Purchase of tractors (G.R.B.) * .. .. Brazilian Line of CreditWeaning Food Project (G.P.C.) .. .. USAIDFood Crop Project (G.M.C.) 9.1 7.7 IDB 2.0 20.6t.A. Strengthening G.M.C., GUYBANR 0.7 0.6 IDB 0.08 12.8

(G.M.C.) (GUYBANK)Forestry Equipment Loan (G.T.L.) ** 7.8 7.8 CIDA - -Fisheries Development Project (G.F.L.) .. 1.4 EDF

IndustryIndustrial Consultancy (Guystac) 1.1 0.8 U.N. 0.3 27.3Seals & Packaging Project (G.L.C.) .. .. CDBBottle Plant (G.L.C.) * .. .. Commercial Banks

PowerT.A. Strengthening G.E.C. (G.E.C.) .. .. ODAElectricity Transmission Line (G.E.C.) .. .. CDB

TransportationPurchase of Buses (G.T.S.) * .. .. Brazilian Line of Credit, Indian

Line of Credit

MiscellaneousT.A. Strengthening G.T.C. (G.T.C.) .. 0.6 U.N.

Project costs not available or not finally specified.** : CIDA Loan to Agribank for forestry development - 50% of which is earmarked for C.T.L. and 502 for private sector use.* : External borrowing which, although not tied to specific investments, is used to finance the public sector capital

expenditure program.

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GUYANA MAJOR NEW PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING

(US$ million)

Total External Financing Counterpart Financing

Central Government Cost Amount Source Amount x

Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesArtesanal Fisheries 4.0 3.0 CIDA 1.0 25

Agriculture Sector Services 7.0 4.2 USAID 2.8 40

Agricultural Credit * 5.8 5.8 USAID - -

Agricultural Development - T.A. 0.3 0.3 IDB - -

IndustryIndustrial Loan * 6.1 6.1 IDB - -

PowerHydropower Development Program 10.0 10.0 IBRD, Unknown - -

Power Project II 25.0 18.7 Unknown 6.3 2.5

EducationUpgrading of Managerial Skills - T.A. 0.6 0.6 Unknown - -

MiscellaneousExport Promotion - T.A. 0.5 0.5 USAID - -

Remainder of Public Sector

Agriculture, Forestry and FisheriesDemerara Fish Port Complex (G.F.L.) 6.5 6.1 IDB 0.4 6

Aqukculture (GUYSUCO) 0.5 0.3 Unknown 0.2 40

Dairy Development Project (LIDCO) 1.4 1.0 USAID 0.4 29

Oil Palm Development (GUYSUCO) 36.4 32.0 CDC, IBAD, CDB, EDF 4.4 12

IndustryBogosse Particle Board (GUYSUCO) 6.5 5.2 Generale Impiorti 1.3 20

Cast Iron Foundry (GUYNEC) 4.0 3.0 IDB 1.0 25

MiningBauxite Expansion Program (BIDCO/GUYMINE) 28.0 21.3 US Suppliers or export credit 6.7 24

sought

Kaolin Mining - T.A. (BIDCO) 0.5 0.5 IDB - -

PowerGeneration of Electricity from Woodwaste 0.5 0.5 IDB - -

- T.A. (G.T.L.)

HealthWeaning Food II (G.P.C.) 0.5 0.4 USAID 0.1 23

* Will not be included in public sector investment program since private sector is beneficiary of these loans/credits.

- 26 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

ARriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(US $'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Demerara Fish Port Complex

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: G.F.L.

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6,500

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$6,400

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Purchase of 10 vessels to be utilized forshrimp and fish fishing.

B. Justification: The project will increase the supply ofshrimp and fish.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount Z

Local Costs 400 575 975 15Foreign Costs - 5,525 5,525 85Total Costs - Amount 400 6,100 6,500

-% 6 94 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - 400 - 400 -

External Sources - 6,100 - 6,100Total - 6,500 - 6,500

- 27 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Request submitted to IDB for funding.Project is under consideration by IDB.

X. TERMS OF FIMANCING:

Interest Rate ConcessionalAmortization Period: 3

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) HIone during 1980-82 whileDebt Obligations: ) project is under preparation

) and implementation.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Technical assistance is requiredto prepare and implement the project.

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GUYANA

1980/82 ProJect List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(US $'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Aquaculture

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: GUYSUCO

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$500

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$300

V. LENDING AGENCY: Unknown

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

The project is part of an overall effort to upgrade and developthe fishing industry of Guyana. It aims at developing fresh waterand blackbush water fish fishing on the country's sugar estates.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 175 - 175 35Foreign Costs 25 300 325 65Total Costs - Amount 200 300 500

-. 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - 200 - 200 -External Sources - 300 - 300 -Total - 500 - 500 -

- 29 -

IX. STATIUS OF PREPARATION: Feasibility study and technical reporthave been completed.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate Not knownAmortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) Included in the corporation'sDebt Obligations: ) projections.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Required at project implementationstage.

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GUYANTA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(US $'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Dairy Development Project

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: LIDCO

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: TJS$1,400

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$1,000

V. LENDING AGENCY: USAID

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project will assist the Government ofGuyana in establishing collection centersfor milk produced by small dairy farmers.

B. Justification: The project will assist in meeting thecountry's demand for milk and dairyproducts.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount _

Local Costs 400 90 490 35Foreign Costs - 910 910 65Total Costs - Amount 400 1,000 1,400

-% 29 71 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 75 75 325External Sources - - 275 275 725Total - - 350 350 1,050

- 31 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project is ready for implementation.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Grant.

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )) None during period

Debt Obligations: ) under consideration.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Required at all stages.

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GUYANA

1980/82 ProJect List - Individual ProJect Description

ARriculture. Forestry and Fisheries(US$0OOO)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Oil Palm Development

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: GUYSUCO

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$36,400

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$32,000

V. LENDING AGENCY: CDC, IBRD, CDB, EDF have been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The scheme under consideration provides forthe plantation of 10,000 acres of oil palmat Wauna and for the establishment of relatedprocessing facilities.

B. Justification: The project will reduce Guyana's dependenceon imported edible oil.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal External

Sources Sources Amount Z

Local Costs 4,400 4,700 9,100 25Foreign Costs - 27.300 27,300 75Total Costs - Amount 4,400 32,000 36,400

-x 12 88 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 390 390 4,010External Sources - - 1,960 1,960 30,040Total - - 2,350 2,350 34,050

- 33 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: FAO has assisted in project preparation;feasibility study has been prepared and 1,000 acres are alreadyunder cultivation.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Not known.

XI. PROJECT IIfPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) The project isDebt Obligations: ) self-liquidating.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: At all stages.

- 34 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Prolect List - Individual Prolect Description

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Artesanal Fisheries

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$4,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3,000

V. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project involves the upgrading of shorefacilities (berths, ice plants, storage anddistribution facilities) in the Georgetownarea.

B. Justification: Existing facilities are deficient; the projectis part of an overall effort to upgrade theGuyana fishing industry.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCItG:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1,000 - 1,000 25Foreign Costs - 3,000 3,000 75Total Costs - Amount 1,000 3,000 4,000

- x 25 75 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 300 300 700External Sources 900 900 2,100Total - - 1,200 1,200 2,800

- 35 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project has been identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Concessional.

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) None during period underDebt Obligations: ) consideration.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: At all stages.

- 36 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture. Forestry and Fisheries(TJS$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Agriculture Sector Services

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$7,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$4,200

V. LENDING AGENCY: USAID

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project contributes to the upgrading ofthe country's agricultural sector. Developmentactivities will be focused on irrigation,drainage and flood control projects, designedto increase the productivity of existing herdsand to expand farm acreage. The project aimsat improving the country's REE (agriculturalresearch, education and extension) servicecapability.

B. Justification: An appropriate institutional capabilityto provide effective REE services willconsidefably improve both productivity andfarmers' income.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1,750 - 1,750 25Foreign Costs 1,050 4,200 5,250 75Total Costs - Amount 2,800 4,200 7,000

- % 40 60 100

-37-

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 160 160 2,640

External Sources - - 240 240 3,960

Total - - 400 400 6,600

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A baseline study of the country's

institutional capability to provide effective REE services will be

conducted by USAID during the current year.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: The project consists of a grant component

and a loan component with interest rate of 2 to 3% and amortization

of 25 years.

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during 1980/82.

Debt Obligations:

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The project provides for technical

services and training activities.

-38-

GUYANA

1980/82 Prolect List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(US$'O0O)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Agricultural Credit

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$5,800

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$5,800

V. LENDING AGENCY: USAID

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Provision of line of credit to small farmersto finance agricultural inputs and equipment.

B. Justification: The project will enhance the productivityof small farmers.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount _

Local Costs - 5,800 5,800 100Foreign Costs - - - -Total Costs - Amount - 5,800 5,800

- % - 100 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - - - -External Sources - 2,000 3,800 5,800 -Total - 2,000 3,800 5,800 -

-39-

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project ready for implementation.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Loan component of US$5,600; grant componentof US$200.

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None.Debt Obligations: Not known.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Required at all stages.

- 40 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Industry(US $'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Bagasse Particle Board

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: GUYSUCO

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6,500

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$5,200

V. LENDING AGENCY: Generale Impianti

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project entails the construction of afactory for the production of bagasse basedparticle board.

B. Justification: The factory will primarily produce for exportand thus generate foreign exchange earnings.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount x

Local Costs 1,300 975 2,275 35Foreign Costs - 4.225 4,225 65Total Costs - Amount 1,300 5,200 6,500

-z 20 80 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 120 120 2,155External Sources - - 480 480 3.745Total - - 600 600 5,900

- 41 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project identified; project proposaloutlined.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate )) Not known.

Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )) None during 1980-82.

Debt Obligations: )

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Feasibility study, including marketsurvey, required. Technical assistance required at projectimplementation stage.

- 42 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Industry(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Cast Iron Foundry

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: CUYNTEC

III. TOTAL ESTIMIATED COST: US$4,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3,000

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project aims at improving and expandingthe operation of the cast iron foundry.

B. Justification: The project will help satisfy the regularsupply of foundry products to the economy.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal External

Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1,000 400 1,400 35Foreign Costs - 2,600 2,600 65

Total Costs - Amount 1,000 3,000 4,000-% 25 75 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 150 150 850

External Sources - - 450 450 2,550

Total - - 600 600 3,400

- 43 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: IDB'mission to complgte feasibility studiesscheduled for near future.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate )) Concessional.

Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )None during 1980-82.

Debt Obligations: )

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REOUIRED: None.

- 44 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Industry(US$0OOO)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Industrial Loan

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: AGRIBANK

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6,700

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$6,700

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The loan will finance new industrialdevelopment projects.

B. Justification: The project will contribute to (1) thepromotion of nontraditional exports andto (2) the development of import substitutionindustries.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal External

Sources Sources Amount Z

Local Costs - 6,700 6,700 100Foreign Costs _ _____

Total Costs - Amount - 6,700 6,700- % - 100 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - - - -External Sources - 2,000 2,000 4,000 2,700Total - 2,000 2,000 4,000 2,700

- 45 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project proposal has been outlined.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate )) Not known

Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )None during 1980-82.

Debt Obligations: )

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: At all stages.

- 46 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Mining(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Bauxite Expansion Program

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: BIDCO/GUYMINE

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$28,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$21,300

V. LENDING AGENCY: Suppliers or export credit from USA is being sought.

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project provides for development of bauxitemining through turnkey contracts for strippingand mining.

B. Justification: The development of new bauxite deposits isvital to the country's economy.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount X

Local Costs 2,800 - 2,800 10Foreign Costs 3,900 21,300 25,200 90Total Costs - Amount 6,700 21,300 28,000

-% 24 76 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources 6,300 400 - 6,700 -External Sources 4,100 12,200 5,000 21,300 -Total 10,400 12,600 5,000 28,000 -

- 47 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project ready for implementation.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate Not knownAmortization Period:

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) None during period underDebt Obligations: ) consideration.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None.

- 48 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Power(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Preparation of Hydropower Development Program.

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources.

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$10,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$10,000

V. LENDING AGENCY: IBRD; others to be identified.

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project comprises the:

(1) preparation of long-term power demandsurvey for Guyana;

(2) preparation of pre-feasibility andfeasibility studies for various hydroprojects, including the updating ofcost estimates and the completion ofengineering investigation of the upperMazaruni hydro project;

(3) identification of new investmentsto improve existing generating,transmission and distributionfacilities to meet power demandsuntil such time as a hydro powerproject is completed.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs - 2,000 2,000 20Foreign Costs - 8.000 8,000 80Total Costs - Amount - 10,000 10,000

- % - 100 100

- 49 -

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Costs - - - - -External Services 1,000 4,000 5,000 -Total 1,000 4,000 5,000 10,000 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project is ready for execution.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate )Amortization Period: 3

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )None during 1980-82.Debt Obligations: N

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: A technical assistance componentis included in the project.

- 50 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Individual Project Description

Power(US$'000)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Power Project II

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$25,000

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$18,750

V. LENDING AGENCY: Unknown

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project aims at rehabilitating the powergenerating facilities in Georgetown, Kingstonand other areas.

B. Justification: Existing supplies of electricity are inadequate;the project will improve the electricitygenerating capacity of the country.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 6,250 2,500 8,750 35Foreign Costs - 16,250 16,250 65Total Costs - Amount 6,250 18,750 25,000

-% 25 75 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:

Post1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 375 375 5,875External Sources - - 1,125 1,125 17,625Total - - 1,500 1,500 23,500

- 51

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate )) Not known

Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) None during period underDebt Obligations: ) consideration.

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: Required at all stages.

- 52 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Prolect List - Individual Project Description

Health(USS$'000)

I. NAM OF PROJECT: Wleaning Food II

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: GPC

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$500

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$387

V. LENDING AGENCY: IJSAID

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project involves the development andproduction of nutritious, low-cost weaninggoods. It is part of a scheme which hasas its major objectives (1) the establishmentof a weaning food plant, (2) the productionof 1,355 tons of food over 3 years, and(3) the formation of a retail distributionsystem.

B. Justification: Some 50% of Guyana's children below the ageof 5 are believed to suffer from malnutritionattributable largely to early weaning andinadequate supplementation.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AID FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount __

Local Costs 50 - 50 10Foreign Costs 63 387 450 90Total Costs - Amount 113 387 500

- % 23 77 100

- 53 -

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:Post

1980 1981 1982 Total 1982

Local Sources - - 113 113 -External Sources - - 387 387 -

Total - - 500 500 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project is ongoing since 1978 (Phase I).

X. TERMS OF FINANCING: Grant.

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: )None during 1980-82.

Debt Obligations: )

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: The project provides for technicalassistance.

- 54 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Agricultural Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

IDB has expressed interest in assisting the country in thedevelopment of its agricultural sector. Assistance would beprovided in the preparation of a rural development program anda program to improve the research and extension capabilitiesof the agricultural sector. IDB would also assist in theimprovement of agricultural machinery maintenance and farmmechanics training.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

One rural development expert to assist the Government inpreparing a rural development program; experts to assist inimprovement of research and extension capabilities; techniciansto train farm mechanics and advise on equipment maintenance.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): US$900.

- 55 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Mining

II. PROJECT TITLE: Kaolin Mining/Benefication

III. LENDING AGENCY: TDB

IV. EXECIJTING GOVERNfElNT AGENCY: BIDCO

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Technical assistance required for:

1. The characterization of the Kaolin and determination of therange of products which could be produced.

2. Identification of the appropriate process design in thebenefication plant based on the agreed product-mix.

3. Calculation of pre-construction plant and infrastructuralcost estimates.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMEMTS:

Prefeasibility study and full-scale feasibility study required.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): US$500.

- 56 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Prolect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Power

II. PROJECT TITLE: Generation of Electricity from Wood Waste

III. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: GTL

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Technical assistance required to undertake a feasibility studyto set up plants to generate electricity from wood waste. Theestablishment of such a plant would result in substantial savingsin the use of imported oil and would be located in isolatedcommunities where other alternatives are not feasible.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Feasibility study of project required.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): US$500.

- 57 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Education

II. PROJECT TITLE: Upgrading of Levels of Managerial Skills

III. LENDING AGENCY: Unknown

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: The Guyana Management and DevelopmentTraining Center - Ministry ofEconomic Development

V. DESCRIPTION ANTD OBJECTIVES:

Technical assistance required in fields of (1) data processing,(2) factory management, (3) finance control systems and management.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Technical expert required; technical personnel required to providetraining on use/maintenance of appropriate data processingequipment.

VrII. ESTIMATED COST (TJS$'000): US$600.

- 58 -

GUYANA

1980/82 Prolect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Miscellaneous

II. PROJECT TITLE: Export Promotion

III. LENDING AGENCY: USAID

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

The project intends to address organizational and technicaldeficiencies within existing export firms and relevant Governmentministries through the provision of technical assistance andselected training. Help will be given to existing firms to enterthe export field and help will be provided to individuals andgroups to launch new export firms. The project will also focuson establishing/strengthening an organization which can providethe needed assistance to the private sector. The technicalassistance and/or training provided would be in such exportrelated areas as: market planning; research; export pricing andincentives; promotional centers and streamlined and better coor-dinated Government licensing and price control procedures whichaffect exports. The project may also finance a study to determineif an advisory body, composed of public and private sector elements,would be a feasible and effective mechanism to improve and coor-dinate export efforts.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: Not known.

VII. ESTDIATED COST (US$'000): US$500.

- 59 _

GUYANA

1980/82 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Miscellaneous

II. PROJECT TITLE: Economic Planning

III. LENDING AGENCY: IDB

IV. EXECUTING GOVJERNMENT AGENICY: State Planning Commission

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To improve the planning and monitoring capabilities of the

State Planning Commission.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQIJIREMENTS:

1. Assistance for project preparation and project execution.

2. Assistance for establishing an improved monitoring system.

3. Assistance for preparation and costing out of the public

sector investment program and its financing plan.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): US$310.

- 60 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table No.

I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

1.1 Population Trends, 1970-791.2 Selected Employment Data, 1972-791.3 Work Stoppages, 1973-79

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at CurrentFactor Cost, 1972-79

2.2 Sectoral Origin of Gross Domestic Product at ConstantFactor Cost, 1972-80

2.3 Implicit Deflators, 1973-802.4 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, 1974-802.5 Gross National Product and National Income, 1973-802.6 National Income Ratios, 1973-802.7 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources,

1974-822.8 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources,

1976-82

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1973-803.2 Merchandise Imports (CIF) By End Use Category, 1973-803.3 Merchandise Exports by Major Commodities, 1976-823.4 Balance of Payments 1976-823.5 Direction of Foreign Trade, 1973-79

IV. EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

4.1 Summary of External Public and Public Guaranteed DebtOperation, 1973-79

V. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

5.1 Central Government Revenues, 1973-805.2 Central Government Expenditure by Economic Classification,

1972-795.3 Central Government Finances, 1976-825.4 Actual and Projected Public Sector Finances, 1976-825.5 Summary of Public Sector Capital Expenditure by Sector, 1980-825.6 Public Sector Investment Program, 1980-82

- 61 -

Table No.

IV. MONEY AND BANKING

6.1 Summary of Monetary Accounts, 1972-79

VII. AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND OTHER SECTORS

7.1 Output of Selected Commodities, 1973-797.2 Electricity Generation and Consumption, 1972-78

VIII. PRICES AND WAGES

8.1 Consumer Price Indices, 1970-798.2 Manhours Worked and Earnings, 1973-79

- 62 -

Table 1.1: GUYANA - POPULATION TRENDS, 1970-79

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 a1 1977r' 1978 a/ 19795

Total end of year Population 716,000 732,000 748,000 763,000 775,000 788,000 801,000!- 813,000 824,000 834,948

Crude Birth Rate (per '000) 33.5 32.9 33.9 31.9 30.0 30.8 30.2 29.2 28.5 28.9

Crude Death Rate (per '000) 6.8 7.3 8.1 7.4 8.0 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.3 6.1

Rate of Natural Increase (per '000) 26.7 25.6 25.8 24.5 22.0 23.2 22.5 21.7 21.2 22.8

Total Births 23,703 23,787 25,065 24,100 23,107E/ 24,068a/ 23,960!! 23,600-/ 23,320!/ 24,000

Total Deaths 4,808 5,248 5,962 5,599 6,161 5,924 6.107 6,020&l 6,000!V 5,052

Natural Population Increase 18,895 18,539 19,103 18,501 16,946 18,144 17,853 17,580 17,320 18,948

Net Migration (Reported) -4,756 -2,843 -2,887 -3,909 -5,215 -4,934 -4,869 -5,0001/ -7,000!a -8,000

Net Population Increase 14,139' 15,696 16,216 14,592 11,731 13,210 12,984 12,580 10,320 10,948

A/ Provisional

Source: Statistical Bureau.

T91. 1.21 CO4T. 3Ur 7 I8UL_T DW0A, 1972-n

1972 1973 1974 r 9e$ 1976 1973L / 1939 In

tIr" r^Dlord rlr 5 .13rd *~~~I_ wr~- rd .r "a L"rr, 7 lr b@ s_ 71rd rr lr

9.s.r 2 10.191 2 15.070 2 86.177 3 15U. 2 17-999 1 16.0 1 19.38 1 253110

o1.ot,1.3 91 12419 92 12920 93 13310 28 131652 5j 14.16 n1613 3 O8 13309

209.. 2 .,926 2 5,343 2 *,997 2 3,243 2 5.528 4.924 1 4.316 1 0.m91

01rb, rroOd, r.rrr3o6 .toboeo 4 2,412 90 3.543 3r 2,600 34 2,126 31 2,896 33 2,995 32 3,002 32 2,930

02r._ 9.908.20.01,q 49 5,00 S0 5,131 53 5,b05 52 1.783 50 6,297 4 6,129 45 3,492 45 5,578

818,19. ad0 Q000r0 49 0.319 21 6 3 6533 3 6, .73 3 7.522 3 7395 3 3383 3 8137

lI.0.10. 02 5.1 1,199 2 6.312 2 6,680 2 7,346 2 3,812 2 3,64 2 *.002

106.,810198.02400,,-71r0 1 233 1 154 1 222 1 l93 2 13 163 1 136 1 133

D010b1rSo9. 84 4.068 8 4 4.472 84 0 8 4.126 90 4329 10 .523' 34 * 4351 74 * 172

086., 8.0810-- 32 ,238 30 5,262 29 .,2 29 .293 3s 5.r 24 5 n93 22 9,29 9 2 58

928rvz 6 1,143 6 1,324 6 1,194 6 1,335 S 1,127 S 1,071 5 946 5 966

0 T09r 20.0.0.06 4 C0,40.0l0,, 8 2,496 8 1.330 8 3,103 3 3,323 3 3,222 7 2,491 9 9.208 5 3.818

*o910**o1 1 c1n.,.

0o

0 0 0I le 1,655 16 1,10 6 1,4238 16 1,509 2 1,340 12 1,531 12 1.140 11 1.100

TOT74 4 2.992 0635 504 490z 88 80 X.123 S.ifl

£'6 '-10.140946

£6 I.5.411.6.90D. .109 00 .h II Io .0109.W

- 64 -

Table 1.3: GUYANA - WORK STOPPAGES, 1973-79

Preliminary1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Number of strikes 186 138 118 284 383 300 219Sugar industry 148 114 95 234 326 241 158Other 38 24 23 50 57 59 61

Workers involved 37.889 66.953 83,509 49,422 89,687 52,060 106,366Sugar industry 32,325 59,361 80,484 45,069 82,999 48,215 91,463Other 5,564 7,592 3,025 4,353 6,688 3,845 14,903

Man-days lost 93,481 151.169 351,723 175.166 964,282 75.791 324,475Sugar industry 66,693 143,820 334,218 165,931 932,402 72,875 139,091Other 26,788 7,349 17,505 9,235 31,880 2,916 185,384

Wages lost (GS'OOO) 745.0 1,3Q2.8 2,712.5 1,793.1 10,242.1 955.2 6,387.7Sugar industry 512.1 1,312.2 2,712.5 1,781.2 10,081.3 952.3 2,786.2Other 232.9 89.6 - 11.9 160.8 2.9 3,601.5

Source: Ministry of Labor; State Planning Commission.

- 65 -

Table 2.1: GUYANA - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT FACTOR COST, 1972-79

(G$ million)

Preliminary

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 103.8 106.3 264.1 341.4 236.0 210.8 264.5 262.0

Sugar 56.7 49.7 184.7 245.8 141.6 77.3 127.3 123.0

Rice 9.0 12.8 25.4 35.6 25.0 49.0 41.0 34.0

Other Crops 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.8 25.0 35.3 40.2 42.0

Livestock 11.8 13.3 18.1 19.8 24.4 26.4 31.5 37.0

Forestry 5.4 6.0 7.6 8.5 10.0 10.0 11.0 12.0

Fishing 5.6 6.8 8.6 9.9 10.0 12.8 13.5 14.0

Mining and Quarrying 96.6 80.5 114.8 141.0 145.0 164.2 171.4 193.0

Bauxite and Alumina 91.6 76.3 110.8 135.0 138.0 154.2 162.1 185.0

Other 5.0 4.2 4.0 6.0 7.0 10.0 9.3 8.0

Manufacturing and Processing 64.2 62.4 120.3 161.6 134.9 122.9 140.0 146.0

Sugar Milling 19.9 17.5 64.9 86.4 49.4 27.1 44.8 43.0

Rice Milling 2.4 2.9 5.9 6.2 4.5 9.2 9.2 6.0

Other 41.9 42.0 49.5 69.0 81.0 86.6 86.0 97.0

Services 260.2 326.8 370.6 453.6 522.4 513.6 550.0 569.0

Distribution 57.3 64.4 80.8 94.2 108.1 92.2 96.0 106.0

Transport and Communications 30.3 37.1 46.3 49.9 55.0 58.0 60.0 62.0

Construction 42.7 47.9 52.7 74.4 85.0 76.9 75.0 75.0

Rent of Dwellings 11.9 12.4 13.7 15.0 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.0

Financial Services 19.1 22.1 27.0 34.7 38WO 42.8 44.0 45.0

Government 79.1 121.2 126.6 159.8 193.3 200.5 230.0 234.0

Other 19.8 21.7 23.5 25.6 27.0 26.8 28.0 30.0

TOTAL 524.8 576.0 869.8 1097.6 1038.3 1011.5 1125.9 1170.0

Not availableSource: Ministry of Economic Development, Statistical Bureau, Bank of Guyana, mission estimates.

- 66 -

Table 2.2: GUYANA - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANTFACTOR COST, 1972-80

(G$ million - 1977 prices)

Preliminary Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Agriculture, Forestry andFishing 211 204 240 216 221 210 232 214 235Sugar 133 121 151 123 134 77 101 92 96Rice 19 24 30 34 23 44 41 30 42Other crops 19 20 21 23 23 35 39 40 41Livestock 20 18 17 18 23 26 28 31 32Forestry 6 7 8 7 9 10 10 10 12Fishing 14 14 13 11 9 13 13 11 12

Mining and Quarrying 184 175 188 188 167 164 160 141 171Bauxite and alumina 176 168 183 180 159 155 146Other 8 7 5 8 8 9 14

Manufacturing and Processing 103 87 107 117 133 123 122 117 123Sugar milling 42 25 42 41 49 27 35 32 33Rice milling 5 4 7 6 4 9 9 7 10Other 56 58 58 70 80 87 78 78 80

Services 393 426 433 514 558 514 488 487 492Distribution 79 86 87 105 115 92 ..Transport and communications 47 50 52 57 59 58 ..Construction 66 68 64 85 91 77 74 72 74Rent of dwellings 12 13 15 16 17 16 ..Financial services 35 37 35 38 41 43 ..Government 127 142 152 189 206 201 210 210 210Other 27 30 28 24 29 27 ..

TOTAL 891 892 968 1,035 1,079 1,012 1,0 959 1,021

not available

Source: Statistical Bureau, mission estimates.

- 67 -

Table 2.3: GUYANA - IMPLICIT DEFLATORS, 1973-80

(1977 = 100)

Prel. Est.

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Agriculture,Forestry &Fishing 52.4 110.1 157.4 106.7 100.0 116.8 122.4

Mining &Quarrying 45.6 61.2 75.1 87.3 100.0 106.9 136.9

Manufacturing &Processing 72.6 112.6 137.4 102.0 100.0 116.4 124.8

Services 76.6 85.8 88.2 93.7 100.0 112.7 116.8

GDP at Factor Cost 64.5 89.9 106.0 96.2 100.0 113.2 122.0 141.9

not available.

Source: Statistical Bureau, mission estimates.

- 68 -

Table 2.4: GUYANA - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1974-80

(G$ million)

Preliminary Estimated1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Total Consumption 670.3 807.6 996.2 985.0 1020.4 11fAln 1315.0Public 172.0 233.0 323.0 304.0 301.0 350.0Private 498.3 574.6 673.2 681.0 718.0 793.0 935.0

Gross Domestic Investment 252.0 392.0 414.0 315.0 242.8 295.0 427.0Fixed Capital Formation 198.0 350.0 368.0 315.0 262.8 295.0 427.0

Public (145.0) (288.0) (298.0) (255.0) (218.0) (235.0) (367.0)Private (53.0) (62.0) (70.0) (60.0) (44.8) (60.0) (60.0)

Change in Inventories 54.0 42.0 46.0 - -20.0 - -

Goods & Non-Factor Services Balance 27.7 7.6 -277.5 -183.0 3.8 -113.0 -121.5Exports of Goods and N.F.S. 659.6 963.1 750.4 703.0 799.9 782.0 1107Imports of Goods and N.F.S. -631.9 -955.5 -1027.9 -886.0 -796.1 895.0 1252.2

Gross Domestic Product at CurrentMarket Price 950.0 1192.0 1132.7 1117.0 1267.0 1325.0 1640.5Plus: Subsidies 23.0 33.0 46.0 22.0 15.0 7.5 10.0Minus: Indirect Taxes 103.0 128.0 140.4 127.0 148.2 162.5 201.7

Gross Domestic Product at CurrentFactor Cost 870.0 1097.0 1038.3 1012.0 1133.8 1170.0 1448.8

Net Factor Income Payments Abroad -49.7 -35.4 -62.0 -56.0 -59.0 -77.0 -90.0

Gross National Product at CurrentFactor Cost 820.3 1061.6 976.3 956.0 1074.8 1093.0 1358.8

Source: Statistical Bureau, mission estimates.

- 69 -

Table 2.5: GUYANA - GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME, 1973-80

(G$ million)

193eliminaty Est,mated1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 197R 1979 1980

Gross Domestic Product at CurrentMarket Prices 644.8 950.0 1192.0 1132.7 1117.0 1267.0 1325.0 1640.5

Net Factor Income Payment Abroad -31.4 -49.7 -35.4 -62.0 -56.0 -59.0 -77.0 -90.0

Gross National Product at Currentliarket Prices 613.4 900.3 1156.6 1070^7 1061.0 1208.0 1248.0 1550.5

Plus. Subsidies 9.7 23.0 33.0 46.0 22.0 15.0 7.5 10.0Minus: Indirect Taxes 78.5 103.0 128.0 140.0 127.0 148.2 162.5 201.7

Gross National Product at CurrentFactor Cost 544,6 820.3 1061.6 976.7 956.0 1074.8 1093.0 1358.8

Provision for the Consumption ofFixed Capital -35.9 -40.0 -45.0 -54.0 -60.0 -70.0

Net National Income at CurrentFactor Cost 508.7 780.3 1016.6 927.7 896.0 1004.8

Not.available

Source: Statistical Bureau, mission estimates.

- 70 -

Table 2.6: GUYANA - NATIONAL INCOME RATIOS, 1973-80

Estimated1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Sectoral Outputs as a Percentage ofG.D.P. at Factor Cost

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 18.5 30.4 31.1 22.7 20.8 23.8 22.4

Mining and Quarrying 14.0 13.2 12.9 14.0 16.2 15.1 16.5

Manufacturing and Processing 10.8 13.8 14.7 13.0 12.2 12.5 12.5

Services 56.7 42.6 41.3 50.3 50.8 48.6 48.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

National Income Categories as a Percentage of G.D.P. at Market Prices

Consumption 89.3 70.6 67.8 87.9 88.2 80.5 85.1 81.4

Gross Domestic Investment 27.2 26.5 32.9 36.5 28.2 19.2 23.5 26.0

Gross Domestic Savings 10.7 29.4 33.5 12.1 11.8 19.5 14.9 18.6

Exports (Goods and N.F.S.) 51.6 69.4 80.8 66.2 62.9 63.1 59.0 , 69.0

Imports (Goods and N.F.S.) 68.2 66.5 80.2 90.7 79.3 62.8 67.6 76.3

Source: Tables 2.1 and 2.4; mission estimates.

-71-

Table 2.7: GUYANA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES, 1974-82

(G$ millions at 1977 prices)

Actual Preliminary Estimated Projected

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

GDP 1.056.7 1,124.5 1,177.4 1.117.0 1,119.3 1.086.0 1,15.1 1-274.7

Gains from Terms of Trade 78.5 87.8 -7.1 - -62.3 -137.4 -214.4 -241.3 -251.8

Gross Domestic Income 1,135.2 1,212.3 1,170.3 1,117.0 1,057.0 948.6 941.7 972.7 1,022.9

Imports (including NFS) 812.2 1,065.2 1,127.1 886.0 739.2 655.7 725.8 764.8 805.5

Exports (including NFS) 769.3 985.9 829.9 703.0 805.0 718.8 868.4 937.5 1.011.0

Exports (Capacity to Import) 847.8 1,073.7 822.8 703.0 742.7 581.4 654.0 696.2 759.2

Resource Gap -35.6 -8.5 304.3 183.0 -3.5 74.3 71.8 68.6 46.3

Consumption 819.3 834.0 1,044.3 985.0 839.0 787.1 734.1 749.3 773.4

Private a/ 608.7 593.3 705.7 681.0 590.4 546.1 500.1 526.6 544.6

Public 210.6 240.7 338.6 304.0 248.6 241.0 234.0 222.7 228.8

Investment 280.3 369.8 430.3 315.0 214.5 235.8 279.4 292.0 295.8

Private 119.0 98.1 120.6 60.0 21.3 48.0 40.1 42.0 49.0

Public 161.3 271.7 309.7 255.0 193.2 187.8 239.3 250.0 246.8

Gross Domestic Savings 315.9 378.3 126.0 132.0 218.0 161.5 207.6 223.4 249.5

Net Factor Income Payment Abroad -55.3 -13.4 -64.4 -56.0 -51.8 -63.1 -63.4 -66.1 -64.1

Current Transfers -8.9 -9.6 -10.8 -10.0 -13.5 4.9 7,4 10.7 9.3

Gross National Savings 251.7 355.3 50.8 66.0 152.7 103.3 151.6 168.0 194.7

GNP 1,011.4 1,111.1 1,113.0 1,061.0 1,067.5 1,022.9 1,092.7 1,147.9 1,210.6

Gross National Income 1,079.9 1,198.9 1,105.9 1,061.0 1,005.2 885.5 878.3 906.6 958.8

a/ Includes changes in inventory.

Source: Mission estimates.

-72-

Table 2.8: GUYANA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES AND USES OFRESOURCES, 1976-82

(as Z of GDP)

Esti-Preliminary mated Projected

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 198Z

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Gains from Terms of Trade -0.6 - -5.5 -12.7 -18.5 -19.9 -19.8Gross Dometic Income 99.4 100.0 94.5 87.3 81.5 80.1 80.2

Imports (including NFS) 96.0 79.3 66.0 60.4 62.8 63.0 63.2Exports (including NFS) 70.5 62.9 71.9 66.2 75.1 77.2 79.3Exports (import capacity) 69.9 62.9 66.3 53.5 56.6 57.3 59.6

Resource Gap 25.8 16.4 -0.3 6.9 6.2 5.7 3.6

Consumption 88.7 88.2 75.0 72.5 63.5 61.7 60.7Investment 36.5 28.2 19.2 21.7 24.2 24.1 23.2

Domestic Savings 10.7 11.8 19.5 14.8 18.0 18.4 19.6National Savings 4.3 5.9 13.6 9.5 13.1 13.8 15.3

Source: Table 2.7

- 73 -

Table 3.1: GUYANA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1973-80

(US$ million)

Pr>SAmioary Estimated

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services 158.2 295.9 377.7 294.3 275.7 313.7 306.7 443.4

Imports of Goods and Nonfactor Services -208.8 -283.5 -374.7 -403.1 -347.5 -312.2 -350.0 491.1Resource Balance -50.6 12.4 3.0 -108.8 - 71.8 1.5 -44.3 -47.7

Net Factor Services -14.9 -22.3 -13.9 -24.2 -21.2 -23.0 -30.1 -35.3Interest (-6.0) (-7.9) (_9.6 ) (-18.4) (-14.8 (-16.9) (-24.6) (-32.1)Direct Investment Income (-5.3) (-13.5) (-6.4) (-3.8) (-3.0) (-0.6) ( .3 ( )Other Factor Services (-3.6) (-0.9) (2.1) (-2.0) (-4.1) (-5.5) ( ) (. .

Current Transfers (net) a/ -0.6 -3.6 -3.9 -4.2 -3.9 -6.0 2.3 4.1

Current Account Balance -66.1 -13.3 -14.8 -137.2 -97.6 -27.5 -72.1 -78.9

Net Public Disbursements 16.3 25.7 54.3 88.7 35.3 39.6 22.0 U.)Gross Disbursements (20.8) (31.1) (60.4) (107.5) (59.2) (100.4) (131.4) (135.5)

Amortization (-4.5) (-5.4) (-6.1) (-18.8) (-23.9) (-60.8) (-109.4) (-67.2)c/

Other Capital / 24.8 16.9 3.3 -43.2 0.4 7.9 -3.3 10.6

Capital Account Balance 41.1 42.6 57.6 45.5 35.7 47.5 18.7 78.9

Overall Balance 25.0 -29.3 -42.8 91.7 61.9 -20.0 534 *

Change in Reserves (-increase) 25.0 -29.3 -42.8 91.7 22.3 -12.2 48.7Arrears - - - - 32.5 -10.2 4.7Government Funds - - - - - 7.1 2.4 -

a/ Including nonmonetary gold and external grants to the public sector.b/ Includes errors and omissions.

c/ Includes contribution to Internal Agencies for IJS$ 1.6 million.

Suurce: Statistical Bureau, Bank of Guyana, IF.

- 74 -

Table 3.2: GUYANA - MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) BY END USE CATEGORY, 1973-80

(US$ million)

Old Series New Series Preliminary Estimated1973 1974 a/ 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Consumer Goods 54.8 63.5 47.9 55.9 64.8 56.1 51.4 57.8 66.7Foodstuffs 20.2 22.6 19.8 20.6 22.3 26.5 24.6 24.4Clothing and Footwear 3.8 4.7 4.7 6.4 7.5 6.0 4.6 4.8Durables 9.4 11.1 6.8 7.0 10.6 5.5 3.7 4.9Other 21.4 25.1 16.6 21.9 24.4 18.1 18.5 23.7

Intermediate Goods 63.2 123.8 139.3 175.8 176.5 161.1 165.1 200.7 279.8Foodstuffs 8.4 18.3 18.3 22.0 26.8 20.2 19.1 25.1Fuels and Lubricants 23.0 46.3 46.2 57.3 53.9 62.9 66.7 90.2 152.9Chemicals 16.3 17.0 17.0 19.7 18.2 15.2 16.7 15.3Textiles 13.4 10.3 11.8 13.5 16.8 10.8 10.8 11.5Other 2.1 31.9 46.0 b/ 63.3 b/ 60.8 b/ 52.0 b/ 51.8 58.6

Capital Goods 58.9 67.1 65.7 110.6 118.8 88.8 60.2 57.2 88.6Building Materials 13.8 21.1 21.1 30.6 36.0 20.6 17.7 20.3Mining/Transport Equip.) 34.4 b/ 37 9 b/ 20.8 40.3 37.4 37.7 13.6 16.1Agricultural Machinery ) 3.4 11.1 4.0 1.0 1.1 2.2Other 10.7 8.1 20.4 28.6 41.4 29.5 27.8 18.6

Miscellaneous -- 1.4 1.8 3 5 9 4 2.2 1.9 2.5

Total Merchandise Imports 176.9 254.4 254.4 344.1 363.6 315.4 278.9 317.6 437.6

ai Due to a reclassification of SITC categories and lack of more detailed iiformation,the series "imports by economic classification" is discontinuous.

b/ Includes parts and accessories.

.. not available.

Source: Statistical Bureau, IMF, and mission estimates.

-75-

Table 3.3: GUYANA - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS BY MAJOR COMMODITIES, 1976-82

(US$ million)

Estimated Projected1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Constant (1977) PricesSugar 104.1 72.8 98.5 92.6 96.9 102.7 107.8Rice 28.2 26.2 41.7 33.5 38.1 44.6 51.6Calcined Bauxite 87.4 82.9 69.1 64.9 87.2 95.6 107.6Dried Bauxite 15.2 16.2 18.3 18.5 17.6 21.7 22.2Alumina 31.0 30.8 32.9 19.2 40.0 41.6 43.3Other .42.7 30.4 38.5 36.8 45.1 44.7 47.0

Total Merchandise 308.6 259.3 299.0 265.5 324.9 351.1 379.5

Price Indices (1977 100)Sugar 97.5 100.0 93.4 95.8 125.7 137.1 150.8Rice 102.5 100.0 90.2 94.6 116.3 127.7 146.7Calcined Bauxite 85.5 100.0 114.5 132.2 157.5 176.4 190.0Dried Bauxite 86.8 100.0 103.3 116.2 120.5 133.6 144.9Alumina 81.6 100.0 97.9 110.0 113.1 125.8 136.9Other 82.9 100.0 93.2 109.2 117.4 131.5 142.0

Total Merchandise 90.5 100.0 98.9 108.8 130.2 144.3 158.3

Current PricesSugar 101.5 72.8 92.0 88.7 121.8 140.8 162.6Rice 28.9 26.2 37.6 31.7 44.3 57.2 75.7Calcined Bauxite 74.7 82.9 79.1 85.8 137.7 168.6 204.4Dried Bauxite 13.2 16.2 18.9 21.5 21.2 29.0 32.2Alumina 25.3 30.8 32.2 21.1 45.0 52.3 59.3Other 35.4 30.4 35.9 40.2 52.9 58.8 66.7

Total Merchandise 279.2 259.3 295.7 289.0 422.9 506.7 600.9

Source: Bank of Guyana, mission estimates.

-76-

Table 3.4: GUYANA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1976-82

(US$ million)

Actual Preliminary Estimated Projected1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Exports of Goods & Nonfactor Services 294.3 275.7 313.7 306.7 443.4 530.2 627.6Merchandise Exports 279.2 259.3 295.7 289.0 420.3 506.7 600.9

(Sugar) (101.5) (72.8) (92.0) (88.7) (121.9) (140.8) (162.6)(Bauxite) (113.2) (129.9) (130.2) (128.4) (203.9) (249.9) (295.9)(Rice) (28.9) (26.2) (37.6) (31.7) (44.3) (57.2) (75.7)(Other) a/ (35.6) (30.4) (35.9) (40.2) (50.2) (58.8) (66.7)

Nonfactor Services 15.1 16.4 18.0 17.7 23.1 23.5 26.7

Imports of Goods & Nonfactor Services -403.1 -347.5 -312.2 -351.0 _4ql,L -582.7 -665.9Merchandise Imports -363.7 -315.4 -278.9 -307.7 -437.6 -520.4 -595.3

(Consumer) (-64.8) (-56.1) (-51.4) (-55.8) (-66.7) (-76.5) (-84.3)(Intermediate) (-122.6) (-98.2) (-98.4) (-104.7) (-127.4) (-150.6) (-171.0)(Capital) (-118.8) (-88.8) (-60.2) (-55.2) (-88.6) (-103.9) (-116.9)(Fuel and Lubricants) (-53.9) (-62.9) (-66.7) (-90.2) (-152.9) (-185.9) (-219.2)(Miscellaneous) (-3.5) (-9.4) (-2.2) (-1.9) (-2.0) (-3.5) (-3.9)

Nonfactor Services -39.4 -32.1 -33.3 -43.3 -53.4 62.3 -70.6

Resource Balance -108.8 -71.8 1.5 -44.3 -47.7 -52.5 -38.3

Net Factor Services -24.2 -21.2 -23.0 -30.1 -35.3 -41.1 -43.1Interest -18.4 -14.8 -16.9 -24.6 -32.1 37.4 39.2Direct Investment Income -3.8 -3.0 -0.6 ..Other Factor Services -2.0 -4.1 -5.5 ..

Current Transfers (net) b/ -4.2 -3.9 -6.0 2.3 4.1 6.6 6.3

Current Account Balance -137.2 -97.6 -27.5 -72.1 -78.9 -87.0 -75.1

Net Public Disbursements 88.7 35.3 39.6 22.0 68.3 76.5 67.2Gross Disbursements (107.5) (59.2) (100.4) (131.4) (135.5) (142.8) (113.7)Amortization (-18.8) (-23.9) (-60.8) (-109.4) (-67.2)A/ (-66.3) (-46.5)

Other Capital c/ -43.2 0.4 7.9 -3.3 10.6 11.8 11.8

Capital Account Balance 45.5 35.7 47.5 18.7 78.9 88.3 79.0

Overall Balance 91.7 61.9 -20.0 53.4 - -1.3 -3.9

Change in Reserves (-increase) 91.7 22.3 -12.2 48.7 - _Arrears - 32.5 -10.2 4.7 - -1.3 -3.9Government Funds - 7.1 2.4 - - - -

a/ Includes re-exports.b/ Includes non-monetary gold and external grants to the public sector.c/ Includes errors and omissions.d/ Includes contributions to International Agencies for US$ 1.6 million.

Not applicable.

Source: Statistical Bureau, Bank of Guyana, IMF, mission estimates.

-77-

Table 3.5: GUYANA - DIRECTION OF FOREIGN TRADE, 1973 - 79

(US$ million)

Preliminary1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Total Exports (f.o.b.)-/ 135.4 270.2 364.4 279.2 259.3 295.7 289.0

United Kingdom 40.3 55.8 95.2 84.5 86.0 87.0 82.4CARICOM 21.5 30.5 41.5 43.1 40.3 45.5 44.8United States 28.6 73.8 79.7 55.1 46.7 61.4 53.2Canada 6.9 14.0 12.4 7.3 13.0 20.6 27.1EEC (excluding UK) 11.2 15.7 26.8 33.8 22.0 32.8 26.6EFTA 1.9 14.6 8.7 9.6 16.7 18.9 6.2Japan 5.4 6.9 6.9 6.6 10.0 8.2 7.5Spain 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.3 3.9 3.4 4.0USSR 8.2 3.8 27.6 - 1.5 2.5 -People's Republic of China 1.0 9.4 4.1 2.4 - - 0.7

Rest of World 9.1 44.2 59.1 33.5 19.2 15.4 36.5

Total Imports (c.i.f.) 175.1 254.4 344.1 363.6 315.4 278.g 307.7

United Kingdom 45.0 52.0 68.2 83.7 64.9 61.1 59.1CARICOM 39.1 67.3 67.9 81.0 80.9 80.6 94.4United States 42.8 65.5 93.2 103.5 84.3 62.8 30.6Canada 9.4 12.6 13.8 15.2 11.6 11.3 10.4EEC (excluding UK) 18.5 26.1 27.3 24.5 29.9 23.3 24.6EFTA 2.5 3.5 3.5 5.6 4.7 4.7 4,3Japan 5.9 8.3 13.3 16.2 10.5 8.3 7.5Spain 1.0 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.5USSR - - - - - 0.1 0.1

People's Republic of China 1.0 3.4 3.5 7.3 2.2 4.1 3.2Rest of World 9.9 15.3 53.0 24.6 25.7 22.4 23.0

a/ Includes re-exports.

Not available.

Source: Statistical Bureau.

-78-

Table 4.1: GUYANA - SU"2AIY OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PUBLIC GUARANTEEDDEBT OPFPATInNS, 1073-78 /a

(in US$ million)

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Outstanding Debt at End of Period 167.0 202.4 265.0 345.8 380.5 420.1Outstanding Debt at Beginning of Period 150.3 167.0 202.4 265.O 345.8 380.5

Plus: Net Disbursement 16.3 25.7 54.3 88.7 35.3 39.6Disbursements (20.3) (31.1) (60.4) (107.5) (59.2) (100.4'Amortization (-) (-4.5) (-5.4) (-6.1) (-18.8) (-23.9) (-60.8-

Valuation Adjustment /b 0.4 9.7 8.3 -7.9 -0.6 -

Debt Service Payments 10.5 13.3 15.7 37.2 38.7 77.;Amortization 4.5 5.4 6.1 18.8 23.9 60.1Interest 6.0 7.9 9.6 18.4 14.8 16.'

(in percent)Outstanding Balance/G.D.P. 54.5 47.5 56.7 77.8 86.9 84.'

Net Disbursements/G.D.P. 5.3 6. 11.6 20.0 8.1 8.0Debt Service/G.D.P. 3.4 3.1 3.4 8.4 8.8 15.6Debt Service/Exports of Goods and N.F.S. 6.6 4.5 4.2 12.6 14.0 24.8

Average interest Rate /c 4.0 4.7 4.7 6.9 4.3 4.4

/a Excludes liabilities of the Bank of Guyana./b Includes adjustments due to exchange rate changes and changes in sinking fund balances arising

from factors other than contributions (which are treated as amortization)./c Ratio of interest payments to debt at beginning of period.

Source: Ministry of Finance, mission estimates.

Table 5.1: GUYANA _ CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, 1973-80

(GS million)

Actual Prelimi-ary Estimted973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Direct T.... 63.4 188.2 241.8 196.1 174.5 166.0 172.2 182.5

Company Taxes- a 39.2 48.8 73.0 7l TO-8.r0 E rI TIPersonal Income Tae 20.2 27.4 30.2 38.6 39.0 56.4 55.1 42.5Property Tan 2.9 2.8 1.8 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.0 5.0Estate Duty 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5National DIevelopme-t Surta 0.4 5.5 7.5 9.2 9.5 co.1> 14.2 14.8

Suga- Levy - 91.0 227.3 76.2 12.0 - - -Other bh - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5

Idi-rt Taue 71.2 102.9 128.2 140.4 126.5 148.2 162.5 201.7Import lucy 30.2 33.2 41.4 52.0 39.1 33.9 -1Defense LevyExcise Duties 16.2 17.3 20.5 23.6 26.4 35.8 39.7 48.3Gonsomption Ian 16.8 37.5 42.4 49.9 44.4 54.8 62.3 91.0Enpo-t Duties 3.5 4.1 2.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.5Ecntrtainment Ton 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5

Liceese Fees 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.5 6.6 7.3 7.3Ither cf 0.3 6.1 17.3 9.1 10.3 13.7 13.3 14.1

Other Noetco Correct Reven.es 25.6 24.0 28.2 53.2 51.4 49.6 61.7 89.4Rent, Royolties 4 Participatio- in Interprises 0 . 8 T-4 1-0 2.7 1. 0 7 0.9 6.91mierest 1.0 0.1 - - 2.7 1.0 0.7 0.3Dividends from Dnsfi.a.clng and Financing Enterprises 11.0 7.2 6.0 28.7 28.7 21.9 28.5 30.3

Peso, Pines, nix. 3.4 3.2 5.2 7.5 7.2 10.4 12.2 16.3

Post Office Rxeeipts 3.0 3.7 4.4 - - -Book of Goyana Peofits 3.1 5.6 8.5 13.0 9.2 9.0 13.1 28.0Htsbor Soroice P-ofitc 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 - - 1.7 2.0Other 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 6.1 4.6 5.4

Total Curn-t Reven-e 160.2 303.2 497.3 389.7 355.4 363.8 396.4 473.6External Gro-ts

U.K. U.1. AID 1.8 _ - _ - _ 1.3 1.6Coa da 0.3 - - - - - 0.8 0.6Other 1.5 1.5 0.3 - 2.1 2.2 13.7 22.8

Sale of Lasd 4 Othse Assess 0.4 - - - - - 1.5 1.6

Othee - 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 - - -

Total Cnpital Revenue 4.0 1.7 0.4 0.2 2.7 2.2 17.3 26.6

TOTAL REVENUE 164.2 304.9 497.7 389.9 350.1 366.0 413.7 500.2

o/ Iecome, corporation nd cithholding taxes.b/ Excess profit snd development tcaes.L/ W-rehouse rents asd changes, policy surrender tas, duty on tcanspert and mortgagee, ntc.

Soorce: Ministry of Finance.

-80

Table 5.2: GUYANA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE BYECoNCKIC CLASSIFICATION, 1972-79

(G$ million)

Preliminan Estimated1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Total Expenditure 204.6 270.7 340.2 638.8 803.0 543.6 533.0 658.3 933.4

Current Expenditure 144.0 200.5 249.4 327.3 457.2 415.0 424.0 495.5 607.4Goods and Services a/ 106.9 140.2 160.0 227.1 304.2 283.3 281.9 305.3 370.9

Personal Erolsents -b/ (65.0) (89.6) (91.4) (110.0) (128.8) (157.9) (182.0) (187.3) (211.0)Other goods and services c/ (41.9) (50.6) (68.6) (117.1) (175.4) (125.4) (99.9) (118.0) (159.9)

Interest 16.2 32.5 39.8 39.8 69.6 71.2 93.8 132.2 162.2Transfers 19.4 26.4 47.4 57.3 78.6 57.6 46.6 54.5 70.8

Consolidated public sector (6.0) (0.7) (0.6) (6.7) (10.4) (1.7) (0.5) (1.2) (0.5)Other public sector (0.5) (7.5) (13.3) (13.6) (16.8) (15.8) (23.1) (24.5) (29.2)Subsidies to private sector (9.6) (9.4) (20.8) (24.4) (34.2) (20.9) (3.2) (4.2) (2.2)Pensions and gratuities to private sector (2.1) (6.7) (9.4) (9.0) (12.7) (13.7) (18.5) (19.1) (30.6)International (1.2) (2.1) (3.3) (3.6) (4.5) (5.5) (1.3) (5.5) (7.8)

Refund of revenue 1.5 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.8 2.9 1.7 3.5 3.5

Capital Expenditure 60.6 70.2 90.8 311.5 345.8 128.6 109.0 162.8 283.2Capital formation 44.5 59.2 69.5 187.1 174.0 104.2 88.6 116.3 260.0Acquisition of financial assets 0.8 4.4 3.2 70.0 115.7 3.7 0.6 2.3 2.0Transfers (grants and loans) 15.3 6.6 18.1 54.4 55.7 20.7 19.8 44.2 21.2

Consolidated public sector (12.9) (1-8) (3.8) (6.5) (9.1) (7.1) ( - ) (5.4) ( -Other public sector ( - ) (3.0) (11.8) (35.8) (26.1) (1.0) (7.2) (24.5) ( -Private sector (1.9) (0.8) (1.7) (10.0) (16.8) (9.6) (10.3) (13.2) (17.2)International (0.5) (1.0) (0.8) (2.1) (3.7) (3.0) (2.3) (1.1) (4.0)

a/ Includes defense, police, and national service expenditures.h/ Consists of wages and salaries, overtime payments, and other compensation.c/ Residual

n- not availableSource: Hinistrv of Finance.

- 81 -

Table 5.3: GUYANA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1976-82

(G$ million)

Actual Preliminary Estimated Projected

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Current Revenues 389.7 355.4 363.8 396.4 473.6 555.0 618.0

Tax Revenue 336.5 304.0 314.2 334.7 384.2 455.0 508.0

Direct Taxes 196.1 177.5 166.0 172.2 182.5 214.0 238.0

Indirect Taxes 140.4 126.5 148.2 162.5 201.7 241.0 270.0

Non-Tax Revenue 53.2 51.4 49.6 61.7 89.4 100.0 110.0

Current Expenditure 457.2 415.0 424.0 495.5 607.4 650.0 668.0

Personal Emoluments 128.8 157.9 182.0 187.3 211.0 230.0 208.0

Other 328.4 257.1 242.0 308.2 396.4 420.0 460.0

Interest 69.6 71.2 93.8 132.2 162.2 170.0 90.0

Transfers 83.4 60.5 48.3 58.0 74.3 80.0 90.0

Other Goods and Services 175.4 125.4 99.9 118.0 159.9 170.0 180.0

Current Surplus/Deficit -67.5 -59.6 -60.2 -99.1 -13-.a -95.0 -50.0

Capital Receipts 0.2 2.7 2.2 17.3 a/ 26.6 a/ 28.0 a/ 31.0 a/

Capital Expenditures 345.8 128.6 109.0 162.8 283.2 320.0 340.0

Overall Surplus/Deficit -413.1 -185.5 -167.0 -244.6 -390.4 -387.0 -359.0

a/ Includes external grants.

b/ Includes Refund of Revenue.

Source: Ministry of Finance, mission estimates.

- 82 -

Table 5.4: GUYANA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES 1976-82

(Current G$ million)

Actual Preliminary Estimated Projected1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

Uses 524 360 406 560 557 614 589

Capital Expenditure 476 299 251 281 390 445 470(Central Government (174) (104) (89) (116) (260) (303) (323)

Fixed Investment)

(Public Enterprises (124) (151) (129) (119) (107) (125) (130)Fixed Investment)

(Acquisition of (116) (4) (1) (12) (2) ( - ) ( - )Financial Assets)

(Capital Transfer to (26) (1) (7) () (-) (-) (-)nonconsolidatedpublic sector)

(Capital Transfers to (17) (10) (10) (33) (17) (17) (17)private sector)

(Capital Transfers to (4) (3) (2) (1) (4) ( - ) ( - )internationalagencies)

(Other) (15) (26) (13) (-) (-) (-) (-)

Amortization 48 61 155 279 167 169 119

Sources 524 360 406 560 557 614 589

Current Account Surplus/ 23 -27 69 42 84 130 200Deficit (-)

Capital Revenue 1 9 8 .7/a 27 /a 28 /a 31/a

Gross External Disbursements 274 151 256. 336 345 364 290

Net Banking Borrowing 257 191 58 192 75 82 68

Other -31 36 15 -27 26 10 -

/a Includes external grants.

- 83 -

Table 5.5: GUYANA - SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR, 1980-82

(G$ million)

Total1980 1981 1982 l9o0/tz

Sector Amount % Amount % Amount % Amount %

Agriculture, Forestry 148.3 35.6 184.6 40.1 198.9 41.0 531.8 39.0and Fisheries

Tourism 1.0 0.2 2.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 3.7 0.3

Industry 30.7 7.4 16.3 3.6 22.8 4.7 69.8 5.1

Mining 61.1 14.7 69.8 15.2 54.3 11.2 185.2 13.6

Power 19.3 4.6 25.0 5.4 32.8 6.8 77.1 5.7

Transportation and 57.3 13.1 50.1 10.9 51.1 12.2 166.5 12.2infrastructure

Water Supply 10.0 2.4 9.4 2.0 7.4 1.5 26.8 2.0

Education 36.9 8.9 35.1 7.6 35.1 7.2 107.1 7.9

Health 8.2 2.0 16.1 3.5 18.7 3.9 43.0 3.1

Housing 4.2 1.0 4.1 1.0 3.6 0.7 11.9 0.9

Miscellaneous 39.5 9.5 47.4 10.3 51.8 10.7 138.7 10.2

416.5 100.0 460.0 100.0 485.0 100.0 1,361.5 100.0

Less: Reclassifica- 25.0 15.0 15.0 55.0tions /a

391.5 445.0 470.0 1,306.5

/a Includes current expenditures which had been included in the capitalbudget.

- 84 -

Table 5.6: GUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM 1980-82 (EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS) Page 1 of 3(G$ million)

1980 1981 1982Ongoing Projects Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Central Government

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 104.6 85.5 19.1 122.4 99.8 22.6 131.6 84.8 46.8Mahaica-Mahaicony-Abary 36.0 30.0 6.0 47.5 38.5 9.0 46.0 31.0 15.0Black Bush Irrigation 1.7 1.6 0.1 17.0 14.0 3.0 37.0 21.0 16.0Tapakuma Irrigation 19.5 14.0 5.5 17.0 15.6 1.4 17.0 13.0 4.0Installation of Pumps 1.2 - 1.2 2.0 - 2.0 1.4 - 1.4Onverwagt Irrigation 1.0 - 1.0 0.6 - 0.6 -U.N. Mapping 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 - - -Geodetic Surveys 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 - 0.1Topographic Surveys 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1Veterinary Dianostic Laboratory 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1Artificial Insemination Service 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - _ -Eradication of Acoushi Ants 0.1 0.1 - - - -Grain Legume Program' 0.3 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.2Soil Research 0.2 0.2 - 0.1 0.1 -Establishment of Field Facilities-CARDI 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 - - -Agricultural Sector Planning 2.1 2.0 0.1 2.9 2.4 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.9M.A.R.D.S. Repair Workshop 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 1.0Seed Farm Developrment 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.1 1.5Livestock Development 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -Corn-Soya Bean Project - CARICOM 0.1 - 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1Construction of Fertilizer Bonds 0.4 0.4 - - - - - - -Baseline Study 0.3 0.3 - - - - - -Rural Development East Bank Berbice Study 0.4 0.4 - - - - - -Coastline Mapping 0.2 0.2 - - - - - -T.A. Livestock Development Project 0.1 - 0.1 - - - - - -UN Forestry Training Project 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 - 0.5Upper Demerara Forestry Project 27.4 24.8 2.6 22.0 20.0 2.0 20.0 16,4 3.6Forestry Technical Assistance Program 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 - - -Fisheries Research 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.2Demerara Fish Port Complex 4.0 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 1.0 2.5 - 2.5

Tourism 0.2 0.2 _ - - - _ -Tourism Study 0.2 0.2 -

Industry 14.7 2.2 12.5 2.0 - 2.0 1.2 - 1.2Textile Mill 5.0 2.0 3.0 - - - - - -Glass Factory 5.7 - 5.7 -Vegetable Oil Mill 3.8 - 3.8 2.0 - 2.0 1.2 - 1.2Seashell Grinding Study 0.2 0.2 - -

Power 0.s 0.8T.A. Small Hydroconsultancy 0.8 0.8

Transportation and Infrastructure 42.7 27.4 15.3 35.8 18.0 17.8 43.2 27.7 15.5Demerara Harbor Bridge - Phase II 2.8 2.7 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 - -East Bank Berbice Road 5.8 3.6 2.2 7.0 3.0 4.0 8.0 5.0 3.0Feeder Roads Project 5.8 4.0 1.8 7.5 4.5 3.0 9.0 5.0 4.0West Coast Roads Impravement 0.2 - 0.2 - - - - -Upper Demerara Forestry Road 7.3 5.0 2.3 0.5 0.5 - - - -Essequibo Sea Defenses 9.8 3.5 6.3 13.0 7.0 6.0 10.0 6.0 4.0Melanie-Damishana Workshop 3.1 2.8 0.3 2.0 1.0 1.0 - - -Purchase of Passenger Vessels 1.2 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 7.3 6.8 0.5Purchase of Cargo Vessels 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 - 0.4 5.4 4.9 0.5Pilot Launches Purchase 1.7 1.5 0.2 -Dredging Equipment Purchase 3.3 3.0 0.3 -Civil Aviation Equipment 0.4 - 0.4 2.0 - 2.0 2.5 - 2.5Rehabilitation of Timehri Airport 0.2 - 0.2 0.7 - 0.7 1.0 - 1.0

Water Supply 5.7 4.6 1.1 4.6 3.7 0.9 2.0 - 2.0Wells in Rural and Hinterland Areas 2.4 1.9 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 - 1.5Improvement of Georgetown Water Supply * 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 - 0,5Linden Water Supply System 2.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.5 - 0.5Water Well Drilling 0.2 0.2 - - - - - -

- 85 -

Table 5.6: GUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMEl7T PROGRAM 1980-82 (EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS) Page 2 of 3

1980 1981 1982Ongoing Projects Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Education 26.0 11.5 14.5 23.9 9.5 14.4 21.9 2.8 19.1Netherlands Aid Education Projects 1.0 1.0 - 0.7 0.7 - - - -

Second Education Project 11.0 6.9 4.1 8.0 6.0 2.0 7.0 - 7.0

Public Sector Ilanpower Traiaing Project 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1

Miscellaoeous Scholarships 10.4 1.5 8.9 11.0 1.5 9.5 12.0 1.5 10.5

Institute for Applied Science and Technology 0.8 - 0.8 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 - 1.0School for Training of Repair Workshop Staff 0.2 - 0.2 2.8 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5

Management Services Training 0.5 0.5 - - - -

Healtlh 6.8 5.8 1.0 14.5 11.0 3.5 15.6 12.5 3.1Construction and Rehabilitation of Rural i.7 1.5 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.5 - 0.5

Health Center. and HospitalsConstruction of New Amsterdam Hospital 0.2 - 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 3.0 2.5 0.5Referral Hospital Training Systemt 3.4 3.0 0.4 5.0 4.3 0.7 8.5 7.5 1.0

Medex Program 0.9 0.7 0.2 6.0 4.2 1.8 3.0 2.0 1.0Leprosy Control Unit 0.2 0.2 - - - -Trainiig of Ctmrunity Health workers 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 -

Institutional Strengthening of Health Ministry 0.2 0.2 - 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1

Housing 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 _ - -

Laing Avenue FLats 0.4 0.4 1 0.4 0.4 -

Urban Planning Projects 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1

Miscellaneous 1.2 0.9 0.3 4.7 2.2 2.5 4.2 2.2 2.0Community Development Projects 1.0 0i.7 4.5 2.0 2.5 4.0 2.0 2.0

Mission Administered Funds 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 -

Subtotal - Central Government 203.5 139.6 63.9 208.8 145.0 63.8 219.7 139.0 80.7

Remainder of Public Sector

Agriculture. Forestry and Fisheries 12i 10.4 D1 12.2 8.9 3.3 17.4 13.9 3.5

Milk Plant (LIDiCO) 0.5 0.4 0.1 - - -

Second Rice Modernization (GRB) 1.5 0.9 0.6 3.0 2.0 1.0 7.0 6.4 1.5Purchase of Tractors (G.R.B.) * 2.1 2.0 0.1 11 1.0 0.1 - - -

Weaning Food Project I (G.P.C.) 0.8 O.6 0.2 0.9 0.5 0. - - -

Food Crop Project (G.M.C.) 4.0 3.0 1.0 5.2 3.9 1.3 9.5 7.5 2.0

r.A. Strengthening O.M.C. (G.M.C.) 0.5 0.5 - - - -

Forestry Equipment Loan (G.T.L.) * 2.0 2_0 - - -FisherIes Development Project (G.F.L.) 1.0 1.0 - 2.0 1.5 0.5

Industry 8.4 7.1 1.3 6.2 5.0 1.2 9.6 8.2 1.4Industrial Consultancy (GtlYSTAG) 0.3 0.3 - 0.7 0.7 - 0.6 0.6Seals & Packaging Project (G.L.C.) 2.5 2.5 - 4.5 3.5 1.0 3.5 3.0 0.5Bottle Plant (G.L.C.) * 5.6 4.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 5.5 4.6 0.9

Power 6.2 4.8 1.4 4.5 3.5 1.0 6.0 5.0 1.0TA Strengthening G.E.C. (C.E.O.) 1.2 . 0.2 - -_Electricity Transmission Line (G.E.C.) 5.0 3.8 1.2 4.0 3.0 1.0 6.0 5.0 1.0

Tran.portation and infrastructure 3.0 1.0 1.1 3.0 2.5 0.5 3.0 2.5 0.5

Purchase of Buses (G.T.S.) 2.5 1.5 1u 1.5 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.5

T.A. Strengthening G.T.C. (G.T.C.) 0.5 0.4 . 1..0 0 - 0.5 0. 5

Subtotal of Remainder of Public Sector 30.0 24.2 5.8 25.9 19.9 6.0 36.0 29.6 6.4

TOTAL - ONGOING PROJECTS

Central Government 203.5 139.6 63.9 208.8 145.0 63.8 219.7 130.0 89.7Remainder of Public Sector 30.0 24.2 5.8 25.9 19.9 6.0 36.0 29.6 6.4Various Locally-Financed Development Projects

Central Government 77.2 - 77.2 100.2 - 100.2 96.8 - 96.8Rest of Public Sector 75.8 75.8 62.5 _ 62.5 84.9 - 84.9

T386.5 163.8 222.7 397.4 164.9 232.5 437.4 159.6 277 8

** CIDA Loan to Agribank for forestry development - 50th of which is earmarked for G.T.L.and 50°h for private sector use. The mount earmarked for private sector use hasnot been included in the above investment expenditures.

* External borrowing which, although not ried to specific investments, is used tofinance the public sector capital expenditure program.

- 86 -

Table 5.6: GUYANA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM (EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS) 1980/82 Page 3 of 3

(G$ million)

1980 1981 1982New Projects Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local

Central Government

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries - _ - - - 6.6 5.3 1.3Artesanal Fisheries - - - - - - 3.1 2.3 0.8Agriculture Sector Services - - - - - - 1.0 0.5 0.5Agricultural Development - T.A. - - - - - - 2.5 2.5 -

Power 2.5 2.5 _ 10.2 10.2 - 15.9 14.9 1.0Hydropower Development Program 2..5 25 - 10.2 10.2 - 12.1 12.1 -Power Project II - - - - - - 3.8 2.8 1.0

Education _- - - 0.5 0.5 -Upgrading of Managerial Skills - T.A. - - - - - - 0.5 0.5 -

Miscellaneous - - - 0.8 0.8 - 0.5 0.5 -Export Promotion - T.A. - - - - - - 0.5 0.5 -

Economic Planning - T.A. - - - 0.8 0.8 - - - -

Subtotal - Central Government 2.5 2.5 - 11.0 11.0 - 23.5 21.2 2.3

Remainder of Public Sector

Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries - - - 17.9 16.4 1.5 7.1 5.9 1.2Demerara Fish Port Complex (G.F.L.) - - - 16.6 15.6 1.0 - -

Aquaculture(GUYSUCO) - - - 1.3 0.8 0.5 - - -

Dairy Development (LIDCO) - - - - - - 1.0 0.8 0.2Oil Palm Development (GUYSUCO) - - - - - - 6.1 5.1 1.0

Industry - - - - - - 3.0 2.3 0.7Bagasse Parcicle Board (GUYSUCO) - - - - - - 1.5 1.3 0.2Cast Iron Foundry (GUYNEC) - - - - - - 1.5 1.0 0.5

Mining 27.0 11.0 16.0 32.9 31.9 1.0 12.7 12.7 -

Bauxite Expansion Program (BIDCO/GUYMINE) 26.5 10.5 16.0 32.1 31.1 1.0 12.7 12.7Kaolin Mining - T.A. (BIDCO) 0.5 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - -

Power 0.5 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 -Generation of Electricity from 0.5 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - -

Woodwaste (G.T.L.)

Health - - - - - - 1.3 1.3Weaning Food II (G.P.C.) - - - - - - 1.3 1.3 -

Subtotal - Remainder of Public Sector 27.5 11.5 16.0 51.6 49.1 2.5 24.1 22.2 1.9

TOTAL - NEW PROJECTS

Central Government 2.5 2.5 - 11.0 11.0 - 23.5 21.2 2.3Remainder of Public Sector 27.5 11.5 16.0 51.6 49.1 2.5 24.1 22.2 1.9Various Locally-Financed Development Proj.

Central Government - - - - - - - -

Rest of Public Sector - - - - - - -

TOTAL 30.0 14.0 16.0 62.6 60.1 2.5 47.6 43.4 4.2

SUMMARY

Ongoing Projects 386.5 163.8 222.7 397.4 164.9 232.5 437.4 159.6 277.8New Projects 30.0 14.0 16.0 62.6 60.1 2.5 47.6 43.4 4.2

TOTAL INVESTMENT PROGRAM 416.5 177.8 238.7 460.0 225.0 235.0 485.0 203.0 282.0

Less * 25.0 - 25.0 15.0 - 15.0 15.0 - 15.0

32L.L 177-A 213.7 445.0 225.0 220.0 470.0 203.0 267.0

* A total of G$(million) 25.0 in 1980, of 15.0 in 1981, and of 15.0 in 1982 in the capital expenditure programhas been reclassified as current expenditure.

- 87 -

Table 6.1: GUYANA - SUMMARY OF MONETARY ACCOUNTS, 1972 - 1979

(Current G$ million)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Net International Reserves 58.2 5-, 70-c 180.1 -54.0 -111.0 -80.0 -204-2

Net Domestic Assets 198.5 281.9 258.9 239.6 483.0 667.0 730.0 927.7

Public Sector (net) 96.5 197 *W7 T23s3 412.0 3 661.0 853.5

Central Government ( 88.8) (167.1) (102.9) (148.0) (388.0) (531.0) (603.0) (740.5)

Rest of Public Sector (net) ( 7.7) ( 2.6) ( 36.4) ( 7.5) ( 24.0) ( 72.0) ( 74.0) (129.0)

Public Sector Arrear Deposits ( -- ) ( -- ) ( -- ) ( -- ) ( -- ) ( -- ) (-16.0) <-16.0)

Private Sector 97.5 117.8 125.6 117.4 120.0 113.0 121.0 162.7

Other 4.5 -5.6 -6.0 -33.3 -49.0 -49.0 -52.0 -88.5

Liabilities to Private Sector 256.7 287.5 329.8 419.7 429.0 556.0 650.0 723.5Currency Issue .2 78.6 108.9 149.9 112.0 152.0 167.0 1Commercial Banks 184.5 208.9 220.9 269.8 317.0 404.0 442.0 504.3

Arrear Deposits -- -- -- -- -- -- 41.0 70.9

Source: Bank of Guyana, IMP, mission estimates.

- 88 -

Page 1 of 2 pages

Table 7.1: GUYANA - OUTPUT OF SELECTED CCOMODITIES, 1973-79

Prelmnr1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Agricultural Products (volume in thousands of lons tons, value in millions of Guynadollars, and unit value in Guyna dollars Per eion ton, unlae otherwise indicated)

SugarAre reaped (thousand acres) 97.5 139.3 108.2 137.8 113.8 144.4 140.8Yield per acre (long tons) 33.4 22.7 32.1 29.3 27.3 29.2Production of cane 3,252 4,090 3,475 4,037 3,108 4,218

Company estates (2,985) (3,452) (2,925) (3,526) (2,619) (3,632)Independent farmers (267) (648) (549) (511) (489) (586)

Sugar yield per acre (long tons) 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1

Production of sugar 265.7 340.8 300.4 332.5 241.5 324.8 298.3Spring (94.4) (163.1) (126.4) (149.4) (104.3) (159.7) (110.3)Autumn (174.3) (177.7) (173.9) (183.1) (137.2) (165.1) (188.0)ExportsVolumn 225.2 302.4 285.0 297.0 207.7 280.7 264.1Value 75 9 284.8 413.1 258.7 185.7 234.6 226.3Unit value 337.0 943.0 1,449.6 871.0 894,1 835.8 856.9

Local consumptionVolume 31.9 30.6 29.3 33.9 31.5 31.6 31.5Value 4.4 4.4 4.2 5.5 6,0 7.5 -Unit value 138 144 143 162 190 236 -

Changes in stocks (volume) 8.6 7.8 -13.9 1.6 2.3 12.6 -6.5

RicArea reaped (thousand acres) 229.3 286.0 288.0 207.5 357.4 299.5 217.1Yield per acre (long tons) 0.48 0.54 0.61 0.53 0.59 0.61 0.65Production 110.0 153.3 175.4 110.0 211.5 182 142.0Spring (31,5) (43.0) (61.0) (48.0) (80.7) (58.0) (66.0)

Autumn (78.5) (110.3) (122.0) (62.0) (130.8) (124.0) (76.0)Domestic seed and feed plus changes is farmers' stocks(residual)a/ 55.0 101.3 53.4 -11.0 62.4 57.4 15.9

Purchases by Rice BoardVolume 75.1 77.1 122.0 116.0 111.6 124.6Value 19.4 27.3 52.5 49.9 54.5 63.4Unit value 259 354 430 430 488 509

ExportsVolume 48 51 82 71 65.9 104.8 88.2Value 25.0 49.0 84.8 73.6 66.8 96.0 84.5Unit value 521 960 1,034 1,047 1,014 916.3 960.0

Local sales by Rice BoardVolume 20 25 40 46 46 39 38.1Value 5.1 7.0 11.1 12.7 12.9 16.9 -Unit value 255 280 277 277 280 437 -

Changes in stocks of Rice Board (volume) 7 1 -- 5 37.2 -19.0 -22.8

Livestock and Related Products

Meat production (million pounds)Beef 9.C e.3 8.5 8.8 6.9 7.3Mutton 3.1 2.5 3.5 4.9Pork 3.1 2.5 3.5 4.9 5.1 3.6 4.0Poultry meat bl 12.6 12.5 17.0 20.9 16.3 r9.2 23.3

Milk (million gallons) 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.7Eggs (millions) 28.1 34.9 36.5 56.3 52.9 32.5 52.0

Fishing (million pounds)

Fish 29 36 35 35 41 41 44Shrimp 13 12 10 7 7 7 8

Forestry (millions of cubic feet)

Timber 8.2 8.8 7.9 8.9 6.2 5.9 5.4*/ Includes stockfeed.

bt Commercial producers only.Not available -

Page 2 of 2 pages-89 -

Table 7.1 (concluded): GUYANA - OUTPUT OF SELECTED COMMODITES, 1973-1979

Preliminary

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Mineral Products (volume in thousands of long tons, value in millions of Guyanadollars, and unit value in Guyana dollars per long ton, unless otherwise indicated)

Dried metal grade bauxite c/Production 1,665 1,383 1,350 969 1,001

ExportsVolume 1,647 1,338 1,363 825 882 998 1,011

Value 31.9 27.5 41.5 33.7 41.2 48.5 54.8

Unit value 19.4 20.6 30.4 40.8 46.8 48.6 54.2

Calcined bauxiteProduction 637 726 778 729 709 590 568

ExportsVolume 664 767 772 731 693 578 542

Value 76.1 125.8 163.0 190.6 211.5 201.8 218.9

Unit value 114.6 164.0 211.1 260.8 304.9 348.9 403.8

Alumina d/Production 234 311 294 265 273 276 160

ExportsVolume 234 302 320 265 263 247 144

Value 29.4 47.5 67.7 64.4 78.5 77.8 53.7

Unit value 125.6 155.6 211.6 243.0 298.5 314.9 372.9

Miscellaneous Manufacturers

Rum (million proof gallons) 407 6.0 5.0 4.6 3.2 3.3 3.5

Molasses (million gallons) 17.1 21.5 18.2 23.8 19.8 25.8Copra (thousand pounds) 7.6 5.0 10.7 11.3 5.9 4.8 6.6

Copra derivatives of which:Copra meal (thousand pounds) (2.8) (0.9) (4.4) (4. ) (1.2) (1.4) (1.7)

Edible oil (thousand gallons) (788.0) (290.0) (701.0) (757.0) (312.4) (336.0) (365.0)

Soap (million pounds) (4.0) (3.9) (5.0) (4.5) (4.2) (3.6) (3.5)

Margarine (million pounds) (2.1) (2.8) (4.2) (4.7) (4.6) (4.3) (4.4)

Bacon (thousand pounds) 129 205 310 428 580 207.3

Ham (thousand pounds) 212 158 176 206 191 199.7Sausage (thousand pounds) 69 42 28 17 19 4.3

Beer and stout (million gallons) 1.9 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.0 3.6 3.5Flour (thousand long tons) 36.6 36.5 40.3 39.4 35.9 35.3Cigarettes (thousand pounds) 923 977 990 1,396 1,394 1,298

Stockfeed (million pounds) 61.4 58.2 80.4 93.0 80.0 110.3

Matches (thousand boxes) 239 236 243 225 266 248 219

Sources: Statistical Bureau; Ministry of Agriculture; GUYSUCO; GRB; Bank of Guyana; IMF.

c/ Includes reFractory and chemical bauxited/ Includes alumina hydrate.

i,'ot available

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Table 7.2: GUYANA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION, 1972-78

(NWh)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Total Generated 340.1 361.6 369.7 383.4 391.7 430.7 404.9

Of which: Public utilities 174.9 189.4 194.6 207.2 212.2 232.9 219.6

Total Consumed 315.3 329.8 330.3 327.8 353.5 386.8 361.6

Residential 62.6 69.7 70.8 77.8 82.9 86.8 82.0Commercial and industrial 245.4 251.8 250.4 240.0 260.6 288.7 271.2Other 7.3 8.3 9.1 10.0 10.0 11.3 8.4

Source: Ministry of Economic Development, Statistical Bureau.

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Table 8.1: CONSUMER PRICE INDICES, 1970-79a/

(1970 - 100)

Total Food Clothing Housing Other

Guyana

1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01971 101.7 101.9 105.4 100.6 100.41972 106.7 109.5 110.3 100.8 104.41973 117.2 123.7 128.8 101.8 .111.71974 140.3 157.4 154.1 110.1 122.01975 148.7 166.7 172.4 113.5 128.81976 161.7 187.2 186.7 114.9 135.11977 179.1 201.6 219.4 117.2 158.31978 214.0 253.2 269.6 119.8 189.11979-b/ 237.1 281.0 311.5 127.5 210.0

Urban

1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01971 101.0 101.2 104.8 100.4 100.01972 106.0 110.1 107.2 100.5 105.11973 114.0 123.3 119.9 100.8 111.31974 134.0 155.9 138.8 107.3 125.11975 144.6 169.0 153.5 113.2 135.21976 157.6 192.3 162.5 113.4 147.61977 170.7 208.7 185.9 115.3 164.51978 196.5 244.7 235.7 116.6 195.51979 235. 1 291.0 312.8 125.3 228.6

Rural

1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.01971 102.0 102.2 105.6 100.7 100.51972 106.8 108.7 111.4 100.9 104.21973 118.0 123.1 132.2 102.1 111.61974 142.3 157.3 159.7 110.8 120.31975 150.2 165.7 179.8 113.6 125.51976 162.9 184.3 195.8 115.3 129.81977 181.9 204.6 231.4 117.9 154.71978 219.9 255.3 280.6 121.0 185.01 9 79b/ 242.5 281.0 314.1 130.0 205.5

Average during period.

January - June

Source: Ministry of Economic Development, Statistical Bureau.

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Table 8.2: GUYANA - M.4NOURS WORMD AND EAlRINGS, 1973-79

(G$)

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 a/Average Average Average Average Average Average Average

Weekly Weekly Weekly Weekly Weekly Weekly WeeklyHWPO EPO HWPO EPO HWPO EPO HWPO EPO HWPO EPO HWPO EPO iWO EPO

I. AgricultureSugar 33.70 34.04 38.20 40.88 34.92 45.73 36.07 57.47 35.47 53.51 .. 71.17

II. HanufactuinSugar b/ 48.60 44.63 52.40 50.15 51.00 58.30 53.43 70.07 53.23 67.76 .. 88.63Other food, beverages

& tobacco 42.30 39.18 42.90 43.82 43.60 47.78 44.85 51.47 44.57 56.86 .. 66.63 .. 75.1Other manufacturing 46.50 38.81 46.90 45.75 48.20 50.55 47.43 53.65 46.53 57.26 .. 71.06 .. 78.5

III. Mining & QuarryingBauxite 40.10 88.73 43.10 98.41 43.30 102.15 48.03 113.28 42.47 115.79 .. 131.25 .. 137.2Other mining and

quarrying 38.20 43.15 55.00 51.35 39.70 36.35 47.78 57.83 57.47 72.77 .. 63.51 .. 88.1

IV. Distribution 42.10 34.77 42.40 37.67 41.40 39.52 42.45 43.79 41.67 48.83 .. 52.53 .. 56.96

V. Other ServicesWharves 35.20 53.59 44.90 82.10 41.90 76.52 41.60 79.93 38.17 80.27 .. 95.51 .. 105.5Other transport and

communication 47.70 56.51 51.30 42.41 47.70 44.30 48.25 54.52 48.37 60.70 .. 86.13 .. 81.0Engineering and

construction c/ 45.70 58.39 46.30 61.98 47.70 70.61 46.38 72.23 48.17 81.14 .. 83.37 .. 89.46

HWPO - Hours worked per operator.EPO - Earnings per operator.

a/ Provisional.b/ Including clerical, administrative and managerial staff of sugar estates.c/ Establishment with at least 10 employees only.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development, Statistical bureau.