report from the pdp working group craig bishop, pat harr, shuhei maeda, john methven, mark rodwell,...
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Report from the PDP working group
Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Shuhei Maeda, John Methven, Mark Rodwell, Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli
including report on status of T-NAWDEX
Andreas Dörnbrack, Pat Harr, John Methven, Andreas Schäfler
ICSC10 Meeting October 2012
PDP mission
Main task of the PDP WG:
Identify basic research problems with significant importance for NWP and to accelerate the transfer of new techniques from academia to the operational practice.
The PDP WG achieves these goals by:
Bringing together the academic dynamical meteorologycommunity and the operational NWP centers
Encouraging the dynamical meteorology community to carry out process studies with the specific aim to improve the understanding of the relationship between particular processes and weather forecast accuracy.
Main activities since ICSC9
5th PDP Working Group meeting at the University of Reading (18-20 June 2012)
Cooperation with WGNE (e.g., systematic model error workshop in Exeter in April 2013; diagnostic project on the Indian monsoon)
Contributed to the planning of the new Polar Prediction Project and the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project
Contribution to ICDM (Int. Comm. Dynamical Met.) meeting in China (summer 2012)
Contribution to field campaign activities (DIAMET, HYMEX, T-NAWDEX-Falcon)
Launch of simple PDP webpage: http://iacweb.ethz.ch/thorpexpdp
Established a linkage with the atmospheric rivers community
Input to discussion on legacy of THORPEX
PDP webpage: http://iacweb.ethz.ch/thorpexpdp
Thanks to Christian Grams!
T-PARC
TY Sinlaku:
Detailed aircraft observationsduring different stages of TYdevelopment
Large uncertainty in trackprediction prior to recurvature
T-PARC
TY Sinlaku:
New data sets provide detailedexamination of structuralcharacteristics
e.g., from ELDORA
Julian Quinting, Karlsruhe
PANDOWAE
German PDP-oriented research group (funded by DFG, 2009-2015)
All (7) PhD project from first phase completed (now PostDocs at ECMWF, DWD, ETH, U Karlsruhe, U Mainz)
3 “joint papers” (coordinated by PhD student and PI) on overarching aspects of PDP research (Rossby wave trains, diabatic processes, ensembles and adaptivity)
About 20 publications so far.
Research Area Joint Projects
Harnisch, F., D. Anwender, G. C. Craig, S. C. Jones, J. H. Keller, S. T. K. Lang, and M. Weissmann: Evolution of forecast uncertainty before, during, and after the extra-tropical transition of Hurricane Ike (2008): Submitted to Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.
Grams, C. M., H. Wernli, S. C. Jones, M. Boettcher, J. Campa, U. Corsmeier, J. H. Keller, C.-J. Lenz, and L. Wiegand, 2011: From the extratropical transition of Hanna (2008) to a Mediterranean cyclone: the key role of diabatic processes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 2174-2193..
Glatt, I., A. Dörnbrack, S. C. Jones, J. H. Keller, O. Martius , A. Müller , D. Peters, V. Wirth, (2011); Rossby Wave Train Diagnostics: An Intercomparison of Different Methods. Tellus, 63A, 991-1006.
Upper-level Rossby waves Moist processes and diabatic
Rossby waves
Adaptivity and Ensembles
DIAMET: Diabatic processes in severe weather systems
Vaughan / Methven / Renfrew / Parker
Mean monsoon precipitation and errors in July
mmday-
1
Wet MonsoonProblem spans all systems and timescales
20151075321
201052
-2-5
-10-20
Observed
Uncoupled T2047Uncoupled T159Coupled T159
D+12–18 T399D+5 T399ERA-Interim
Milton, Rodwell, Willett, Brown
Effects of modeled processes on wind and humidity
Stratiformprecipitation
Convectiveprecipitation
Vertical diffusion
Dynamics
Understanding the lack of balance between processes (‘spin-up’). A new approach to diagnosisMean July 2009 850 hPa model process tendencies over lead-times 1-13 hrs of 0 & 12 UTC forecasts. Bold: 5% significance
Sum(≈ Increment)
4 12 20-4-12-204 12 20-4-12-20
Unit = 0.1 gkg-1day-
1
10ms-1day-1 2 6 10-2-6-102 6 10-2-6-10 2ms-1day-1
Spackman and Ralph
Atmospheric Rivers& WISPAR campaign spring 2011
Atmospheric Rivers: Top 10 winter floods in central UK
• Top 10 floods in Winter Maximum Series (WMS) over 1970–2010. • Persistent ARs located over basin in these floods.• ARs have consistent location and orientation.
Data source: 20th Century / ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses.
Lavers et al., 2011 GRL
T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Hans Schlager (DLR)
Maxi Böttcher, Christian Grams, Heini Wernli (ETH)Partners within PANDOWAE research group
Main objectives
T-NAWDEX-Falcon
Lagrangian flights during vertical transport in a warm conveyor belt (WCB) with use of in-situ observations (H2O, selected chemical tracers) and dropsondes
Perform a tracer experiment to tag air masses
- release artificial tracer in boundary layer of WCB
- collect tracer in WCB ascent and outflow
Investigate latent heating in WCB in warm / mixed-phase cloud and compare with model simulations
Time period: 8-26 October 2012 (i.e., parallel to HYMEX SOP)
T-NAWDEX
Planning towards a cross-Atlantic aircraft field experiment in 2015
Scientific objective
Investigate diabatic processes (e.g., aspects of transport, microphysics and radiation involved in formation of negative PV anomalies at tropopause level) in sequence of North Atlantic weather systems potentially involving ET, extratropical cyclones, WCB & blocking
Aircraft
Two G-V from both sides of the Atlantic (HIAPER and HALO), shorter range aircraft from UK, …
Partners (as of Oct 2012)
US (Pat Harr and colleagues), UK (John Methven and DIAMET community), Germany (DLR, U Munich, DWD), Switzerland (ETH), …
Procedure: Monthly telecon; submission of US proposal in Jan 2013 (tbc)
