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Report fromReport from MSTRSMSTRSReport from Report from MSTRS MSTRS MOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review Workgroup
Clean Air Act Advisory Committee MeetingClean Air Act Advisory Committee Meetingy gy gJanuary 12, 2011January 12, 2011
John John KoupalKoupalDirector, Air Quality & Modeling CenterDirector, Air Quality & Modeling Center
U S EPA Offi f T t ti d Ai Q litU S EPA Offi f T t ti d Ai Q litU.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air QualityU.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality
What is MOVES?What is MOVES?What is MOVES?What is MOVES?
MoMotortor VVehicleehicle EEmissionmission SSimulatorimulatorMoMotor tor VVehicle ehicle EEmission mission SSimulatorimulator Estimates Estimates emissions emissions & energy use from all & energy use from all
dd lti l llti l lonon--road sources over road sources over multiple scalesmultiple scalesReplaces MOBILE6.2 as EPA’s official Replaces MOBILE6.2 as EPA’s official onon--
road emissions road emissions model for model for SIP SIP and and conformity determinationsconformity determinations
22
Why Does EPAWhy Does EPA Develop ModelsDevelop Models??Why Does EPA Why Does EPA Develop ModelsDevelop Models??
Mandated by Mandated by Clean Clean Air Air ActActyy Must Must maintain & update emission factors every 3 yearsmaintain & update emission factors every 3 years EPA must provide tools for state and local air agenciesEPA must provide tools for state and local air agencies
Analyses required for new rulesAnalyses required for new rules Analyses required for new rulesAnalyses required for new rules Quantify emission baseline & Quantify emission baseline & reductionsreductions Provide input for air quality, cost/benefit analyses Provide input for air quality, cost/benefit analyses p q y, yp q y, y
“What“What--If” analysesIf” analyses Understand mobile source emission trends and their Understand mobile source emission trends and their
contribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventorycontribution to overall inventory Evaluate potential for new national, regional and local Evaluate potential for new national, regional and local
policiespoliciesR it fR it f i ii i d ti it i f tid ti it i f ti
33
Repository of Repository of emissions emissions and activity informationand activity information
Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?Why did EPA develop MOVES?MOBILE series of models obsolete and MOBILE series of models obsolete and
increasingly difficult to maintainincreasingly difficult to maintainNeeded platform that allowed easier Needed platform that allowed easier pp
updates with new emissions, fleet and updates with new emissions, fleet and activity dataactivity data
Wanted Wanted to develop platform that could to develop platform that could include all mobile sourcesinclude all mobile sources
U.S. National Research Council U.S. National Research Council recommendationsrecommendations
44
Why MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continuedWhy MOVES? continued In “Modeling Mobile Source Emissions” (2000), In “Modeling Mobile Source Emissions” (2000), g ( )g ( )
National Research Council made several National Research Council made several recommendations to EPA to improve modeling:recommendations to EPA to improve modeling: Support for smallerSupport for smaller--scale (project level) analysis scale (project level) analysis pppp (p j ) y(p j ) y Improved characterization of high emitters, heavyImproved characterization of high emitters, heavy--
duty vehicles and duty vehicles and nonroadnonroad sourcessources Improved characterization of particulate matter andImproved characterization of particulate matter and Improved characterization of particulate matter and Improved characterization of particulate matter and
toxicstoxics Improved model evaluation and uncertainty analysisImproved model evaluation and uncertainty analysis Improved ability to interface with other modelsImproved ability to interface with other models Improved ability to interface with other modelsImproved ability to interface with other models
These recommendations became the primary These recommendations became the primary objectives for MOVESobjectives for MOVES
55
Pollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVESPollutants in MOVES HCHC (THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC)(THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC) HC HC (THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC)(THC, NMHC, NMOG, TOG, VOC) COCO NONO (NO NO(NO NO22)) NONOxx (NO, NO(NO, NO22)) NHNH33 SOSO22 SOSO22 PMPM10,2.510,2.5 (OC, EC, sulfate, brake, tire)(OC, EC, sulfate, brake, tire) GHG (GHG (COCO CHCH NN O)O) GHG (GHG (COCO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O)O) Toxics Toxics EnergyEnergy (total petroleum fossil)(total petroleum fossil)
66
Energy Energy (total, petroleum, fossil)(total, petroleum, fossil)
EmissionsEmissions Processes in MOVESProcesses in MOVESEmissions Emissions Processes in MOVESProcesses in MOVES
RunningRunning RunningRunning StartStart Extended Idle (“Extended Idle (“hotelinghoteling”)”) Evaporative Evaporative
Permeation, Vapor Venting, Liquid LeaksPermeation, Vapor Venting, Liquid Leaks RefuelingRefueling RefuelingRefueling
Vapor loss, SpillageVapor loss, Spillage CrankcaseCrankcase Tire WearTire Wear Brake Brake WearWear
77
MOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest DataMOVES is Based on Latest Data
EPA reviewed data from hundreds ofEPA reviewed data from hundreds of EPA reviewed data from hundreds of EPA reviewed data from hundreds of thousands of cars and light trucks thousands of cars and light trucks Inspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab dataInspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab data Inspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab dataInspection/Maintenance, RSD, historical lab data
Landmark study of gasoline PM in Kansas City Landmark study of gasoline PM in Kansas City First use of portable emission measurementFirst use of portable emission measurement First use of portable emission measurement First use of portable emission measurement
systems (PEMS) to capture onsystems (PEMS) to capture on--road heavyroad heavy--duty truck emissionsduty truck emissionsduty truck emissionsduty truck emissions
New data drives updated emission estimatesNew data drives updated emission estimates
88
Example Example NONOxx Results Results (MOVES2009)(MOVES2009) Fulton County (Atlanta) - NOx
On-road data on heavy trucks shows higher emissions than MOBILE6 estimated from cert data
y ( )
30,000
40,000
Tons
MOVES
MOVES
M6HDExtended Idle=34%
Extended idle emissions become significant share of heavy-duty inventory in future
0
10,000
20,000
Ann
ual
MOVES
M6M6HD
LDLD
0
2008 2015 2020
Salt Lake County - NOxCook County (Chicago) - NOx Salt Lake County NOx
15,000
20,000
25,000
Tons
MOVES
MOVES
M6HD
Cook County (Chicago) NOx
60,000
80,000
100,000
Tons
MOVES
MOVES
M6HD
0
5,000
10,000
Ann
ual T
MOVES
M6M6
HD
LDLD
0
20,000
40,000
Ann
ual T
MOVES
MOVES
M6M6
HD
LDLD
0
2008 2015 20200
2008 2015 2020
Fulton County - PM2.51500 MOVES
Example PMExample PM2.5 2.5 Results Results (MOVES2009)(MOVES2009)
Kansas City program found high gas PM emissions esp. at cold temps
New data on heavy trucks shows 600
900
1200
nual
Ton
s
MOVESHD
New data on heavy trucks shows higher deterioration than MOBILE6
MOVES accounts for impact of vehicle speed – MOBILE did not 0
300
600
Ann MOVES
M6M6M6
HD
LDLD
2008 2015 2020
Salt Lake County - PM2.5600
Cook County - PM2.54000
300
450
600
Ton
sMOVES
MOVES
HD3000
4000
Ton
s
MOVES
MOVES
HD
150
300A
nnua
l
MOVES
M6M6M6
HD
LDLD
1000
2000
Ann
ual
MOVES
MOVES
M6M6
M6
HD
HD
LDLD 0
2008 2015 20200
2008 2015 2020
LDLD
Modal “Binning” ApproachModal “Binning” ApproachModal Binning ApproachModal Binning Approach
Advancement required to meet emergingAdvancement required to meet emerging Advancement required to meet emerging Advancement required to meet emerging analysis needsanalysis needs
Any driving pattern can be modeledAny driving pattern can be modeled Any driving pattern can be modeled Any driving pattern can be modeled Adds major flexibility compared to MOBILEAdds major flexibility compared to MOBILE
Allows direct use of data from many Allows direct use of data from many yysourcessources Laboratory, I/M programs, RSDLaboratory, I/M programs, RSD
Independent Independent validation has shown good validation has shown good results even for results even for macroscalemacroscale applicationsapplications
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HC Emission Rates By BinSource Bin: LDV Gasoline / 1996 MY
100
0-3 year old 4-5 year old
(g/h
r)
< 25 mph 25 - 50 mph > 50 mph
10
sion
Rat
e (
1
ing dle
<0
0-3
3-6
6-9 12 12 <0
0-3
3-6
6-9 12 18 24 30 >30
<6 12 18 24 30 >30
Mea
n Em
iss
0
brak
in id < 0 3 6 9-1
> 1 < 0 3 6 9-1
12-1
18-2
24-3 >3 < 6-1
12-1
18-2
24-3 >3
HC
M
0VSP (KW/tonne)
Distribution of Operating Time by BinLi ht D t C d T kLight-Duty Cars and Trucks
0.30
Rural Freeway Urban FreewayRural Arterial Urban Arterial
0.25
g Ti
me
< 25 mph 25 - 50 mph > 50 mph
0.15
0.20
f Ope
ratin
g
0.05
0.10
Frac
tion
of
0.00
aking idle < 0
0-3
3-6
6-9
9-12
> 12 < 0
0-3
3-6
6-9
9-12
12-1
818
-24
24-3
0>3
0<
66-
1212
-18
18-2
424
-30
>30
bra 1 1 2 1 1 2
VSP (KW/tonne)
COCO22 Impact of Traffic SmoothingImpact of Traffic Smoothing
650 00
700.00
Transient driving Smooth driving
550.00
600.00
650.00
450.00
500.00
O2
(g/m
ile)
Transient Driving
300 00
350.00
400.00CO g
S th D i i
200.00
250.00
300.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Smooth Driving
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
average speed bin (mph)
MOVES HistoryMOVES HistoryMOVES HistoryMOVES History
2000 - NRC recommends complete overhaul of EPA mobile source models2000 - NRC recommends complete overhaul of EPA mobile source models
2001 - EPA publishes white paper on MOVES for stakeholder and peer review - EPA begins developing design with input from stakeholder working group
2002 - MOVES “shootout” identifies best practices for modal modeling
2005 - First version of MOVES released – focused on energy and GHG only- Kansas City PM study completed
2007 - Demonstration version of full on-road MOVES released Established new FACA workgroup to review criteria/toxic emission inputs- Established new FACA workgroup to review criteria/toxic emission inputs
2009 - Draft (MOVES2009) released in April- Final (MOVES 2010) released in December
2010 - MOVES2010a (reflects 2012-2016 LD GHG rule)
MOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review WorkgroupMOVES Review Workgroup
Formed by MSTRSFormed by MSTRS toto provide input to EPA onprovide input to EPA on Formed by MSTRS Formed by MSTRS to to provide input to EPA on provide input to EPA on MOVES MOVES developmentdevelopment
15 meetings 200715 meetings 2007--20102010gg Workgroup members represented wide range of Workgroup members represented wide range of
stakeholdersstakeholders Reviewed and provided comments on MOVESReviewed and provided comments on MOVES Reviewed and provided comments on MOVES Reviewed and provided comments on MOVES
inputs and algorithmsinputs and algorithms Recommendations were incorporated in subsequent Recommendations were incorporated in subsequent
i f MOVESi f MOVESversions of MOVESversions of MOVES MSTRS voted to forward to CAAACMSTRS voted to forward to CAAAC
1616
Workgroup Final Comments & Workgroup Final Comments & R d tiR d tiRecommendations Recommendations (1 of 2)(1 of 2)
MOVES o erall str ct re isMOVES o erall str ct re is solidsolidMOVES overall structure is MOVES overall structure is solidsolid Provides good deal of flexibilityProvides good deal of flexibility
MOVES validation and corroboration workMOVES validation and corroboration workMOVES validation and corroboration work MOVES validation and corroboration work has been has been helpful and should continuehelpful and should continue EPA has compared MOVES results to a variety of EPA has compared MOVES results to a variety of
i d d t d t t d thi d d t d t t d thindependent datasets; recommends other independent datasets; recommends other organizations undertake this as wellorganizations undertake this as well
EPA should budget funds for ongoing improvementEPA should budget funds for ongoing improvementContinue to obtain feedback from a variety Continue to obtain feedback from a variety
of users, and incorporate this feedback of users, and incorporate this feedback into modelinto model
1717
into modelinto model
Workgroup Final Comments & Workgroup Final Comments & R d tiR d tiRecommendations Recommendations (2 of 2)(2 of 2)
EPA EPA needs to continue model needs to continue model updatesupdates Emission rates, activity profiles, as well as featuresEmission rates, activity profiles, as well as features
N l ( 2012N l ( 2012 2016 LD GHG)2016 LD GHG) New rules (e.g. 2012New rules (e.g. 2012--2016 LD GHG)2016 LD GHG) Expanded air toxicsExpanded air toxics Reduce model run time Reduce model run time
EPA needs longEPA needs long--term data collection term data collection planplan EPA needs to budget and plan for continued data EPA needs to budget and plan for continued data
collectioncollectioncollectioncollection EPA needs to seek data from other sources as wellEPA needs to seek data from other sources as well Focus on known uncertainties in the modelFocus on known uncertainties in the model
1818
How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup t M d l V lid tit M d l V lid ticomments: Model Validationcomments: Model Validation
Comparison of MOVES fuel consumption Comparison of MOVES fuel consumption results vs. fuel tax dataresults vs. fuel tax data
Di t h k f GHG i iDi t h k f GHG i i Direct check of GHG emissionsDirect check of GHG emissions Provides top down check on model fleet, activity data Provides top down check on model fleet, activity data
that applies to criteria as wellthat applies to criteria as wellComparison of emission rates vs. Comparison of emission rates vs.
independent data independent data Multiple citiesMultiple cities RSD I/MRSD I/M dynodyno datadata Multiple cities Multiple cities –– RSD, I/M, RSD, I/M, dynodyno datadata
Report to be published Report to be published Air quality/dispersion studies in progressAir quality/dispersion studies in progress
1919
q y p p gq y p p g
National Fuel Consumption Comparison
Tax Data Final MOVES
120
160
ns
80
on G
allo
n Gasoline
40Billi
o
Diesel0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Year
LDV LDV NOxNOx FuelFuel--Based Emission Rates by AgeBased Emission Rates by AgeMOVES vs Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs. Chicago RSD (2004)MOVES vs. Chicago RSD (2004)
14
10
12 Chicago RSD
MOVES 2010
8
/kg
fuel
)
4
6
NO
x (g
/
2
4
00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Age
LDV LDV NOxNOx FuelFuel--Based Emission Rates by AgeBased Emission Rates by AgeMOVES vs. Atlanta RSD (2008)MOVES vs. Atlanta RSD (2008)( )( )
30
25Atlanta RSD
MOVES 2010
15
20
g/kg
fuel
)
10
NO
x (g
5
00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Age
MOVES Calendar Year 2005 HDD NOx vs. SpeedMOVES Calendar Year 2005 HDD NOx vs. Speedindependent verification vs. CRC E-55 results
120
140
DRAFT MOVESE55 HHD 56000 lb
100
120
]
Final MOVES
60
80
NO
x [g
/mile
]
20
40
00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Average speed [mph]
How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup t M d l U d tt M d l U d tcomments: Model Updatescomments: Model Updates
Database approach facilitates faster Database approach facilitates faster updates in response to new dataupdates in response to new data
Updates requires careful consideration of Updates requires careful consideration of the policy implications and technicalthe policy implications and technicalthe policy implications and technical the policy implications and technical justification for a model change. justification for a model change.
EPA will coordinate official releases taking EPA will coordinate official releases taking into account the timing needs of SIP analyses into account the timing needs of SIP analyses
2424
How EPA is addressing workgroup How EPA is addressing workgroup comments: Long Term Data Collectioncomments: Long Term Data Collection Rolling out new advancements in capturing realRolling out new advancements in capturing real worldworld Rolling out new advancements in capturing realRolling out new advancements in capturing real--world world
emissionsemissions Evaporative Leak Detection Study (2008Evaporative Leak Detection Study (2008--10)10)
Method developed to detect high Method developed to detect high evapevap vehicles using RSDvehicles using RSD Confirmed using portable SHEDConfirmed using portable SHED Developing way to apply to much larger RSD datasetsDeveloping way to apply to much larger RSD datasetsp g y pp y gp g y pp y g
Houston Port Drayage Study (2009Houston Port Drayage Study (2009--10)10) First to implement hybrid of RSD and PEMSFirst to implement hybrid of RSD and PEMS
Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+)Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+) Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+)Tier 2 PEMS Study (2010+) RSD conducted at 6 sites around Metro Detroit (~80,000 hits)RSD conducted at 6 sites around Metro Detroit (~80,000 hits) PEMS testing planned on Tier 2s selected based on RSDPEMS testing planned on Tier 2s selected based on RSD
2525
Considering additional cities for 2011/2012Considering additional cities for 2011/2012
Evaporative “Leaker” Field StudyEvaporative “Leaker” Field Study
•• Evaporative vapor emissions Evaporative vapor emissions either contained or leakingeither contained or leakingeither contained, or leakingeither contained, or leaking
•• In collaboration with CRC and In collaboration with CRC and Colorado developingColorado developingColorado, developing Colorado, developing groundbreaking approach to groundbreaking approach to quantifying frequency of quantifying frequency of evapevapleakersleakers
•• Developed method to find Developed method to find evapevapleakers using roadside remote leakers using roadside remote sensingsensingsensingsensing
•• Verified using portable SHED Verified using portable SHED
Houston Port HD Drayage Studyy g y• ~ 4,000 RSD hits on 1,900 trucks entering port• PEMS testing on sample of these, stratified by emission level
RSD equipment
27
PEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExamplePEMS Vehicle ExampleMY 1994 FreightlinerMY 1994 Freightliner
Exhaust System
PM Proportional
Sampler SystemS t h DS Sampler SystemSemtech_DSPM Filters
2828
Visit the MOVES website:Visit the MOVES website:http://www.epa.gov/otaq/moves.htmhttp://www.epa.gov/otaq/moves.htm
Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting , , g, , gpresentations, and other helpful background materialspresentations, and other helpful background materials