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Report Analysis and findings European capital city tourism Vienna, November 2011

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Report – Analysis and findings

European capital city tourism

Vienna, November 2011

2 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may

not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness

and accuracy of the statements made in this document.

© Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Contents Page

Management summary Paris, Amsterdam and Rome lead the ranking 3

A. Methodology and sources This study is based on online material, statistical data and expert interviews 5

B. Analysis and evaluation European capitals have been evaluated along a set of seven criteria 10

C. Conclusion City tourism is a key growth driver for the economy and professional strategy development is a key success factor 32

Management summary Paris, Amsterdam and Rome lead the ranking

4 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

European capital city tourism study: Management summary

RANKING

> To allow better comparisons, the cities were split into two clusters: Cluster 1 contains the top ten cities in terms of the number of overnight stays in 2010

> Paris tops the ranking in Cluster 1, followed by Amsterdam, Rome, Stockholm, Berlin and Vienna, in that order

> Zurich tops the ranking in Cluster 2, followed by Lisbon and Copenhagen

ANALYSIS

> We use seven criteria to evaluate tourism in capital cities: growth in overnight stays, total number of overnight stays, bed capacity growth, value creation, internationality, accessibility and congresses

> Berlin, Stockholm and Ljubljana saw the highest growth in the number of overnight stays over the last five years

> London and Paris had by far the most overnight stays in 2010; Berlin and Rome came fourth and fifth

> Amsterdam and Lisbon have most overnight stays per inhabitant, followed by Prague

> Amsterdam, Lisbon, Stockholm, Zurich, Vienna, Rome and Copenhagen are the top performers in terms of growth in the number of overnight stays in the last five years and the number of overnight stays per inhabitant

> London and Prague enjoy the longest overnight stays

> Ljubljana is the top performer in terms of growth in bed capacity in the last five years. Tallinn and Istanbul follow in second and third place, a long way behind

> In terms of value creation in the form of revenue per available room, Paris, London and Rome top the ranking. Prague and Berlin come at the bottom end of the ranking

> London and Paris lead in terms of accessibility by air, followed at some distance by Amsterdam and Istanbul

> Vienna hosts the most congresses, followed at some distance by Paris and Berlin

OBJECTIVE

> Tourism to capital cities is a growth driver, outperforming both tourism to countries as a whole and GDP growth

> The study compares the figures for tourism in different European capitals, looking at current status, growth and success

A. Methodology and sources This study is based on online material, statistical data and expert interviews

6 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

London

Paris

Berlin

Rome

Prague

Vienna

Madrid

Lisbon

Athens

Zurich Budapest

Brussels

Amsterdam

Bratislava

Zagreb Belgrade

Luxembourg

Helsinki

Istanbul

Ljubljana

Tallinn

The study analyzes 24 European cities' success in the area of tourism

Focus cities

Capitals of EU-27 countries

Belgrade, Istanbul, Zagreb and Zurich1)

Cities for which data was out-of-date or insufficient to allow comparisons

24 focus cities

Objective

> The objective of the study is to bench-mark the success of European cities in the area of tourism…

> … and to produce findings on key developments, trends and challenges in the market

Objective and focus cities

Source: Roland Berger

Oslo

Stockholm

Copenhagen

1) Zurich is included as it is more significant for tourism than the capital , Bern

7 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

The study is based on information from popular databases and interviews with experts

SOURCES > Websites of city tourist boards and marketing agencies

> ECM Benchmarking Report 2011

> Eurostat data on country level

> Intern. Congress and Convention Association (ICCA)

> International Hotel Association (IHA)

> TourMIS, statistical database for city tourism1)

> Berliner Hotelverband

> Deutscher Hotel- und Gaststätten-verband

> Österreichische Hoteliervereinigung

> Wien Tourismus

> Roland Berger experts with relevant project experience

METHOD- OLOGY

1

Gather online material (tourism master plans, etc.)

3

Interview experts on methodology and trends in city tourism

Collect and analyze statistical data

2

Evaluate focus cities along predefined dimensions

4

Derive conclusions

5

> Minor differences in some criteria could not be avoided – accepted for the purpose of this report

> Roland Berger

Methodology and sources

Source: Roland Berger

1) TourMIS data lumps business and leisure together

8 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

We use a "barometer model" to evaluate and rank cities – Similar approach to the World Economic Forum ranking

EVALUATION OF FOCUS CITIES – BACKUP

Evaluation criteria City

I Overnight stays, CAGR 2005-2010 [%]

II Overnight stays per inhabitant [no.]

Published data

Barometer results

Criteria weighting1)

40%

Calculation

City with the highest value given 100

100

City with lowest value given 0

0

Remaining values interpolated, e.g. E:

(7.0-1.0)/

(13.0-1.0) x 100

= 50

60%

Rank Total barometer results

A 7.3 A 100

B 3.5 B 51

C -0.5 C 0

D -0.4 D 1

E 4.3 E 61

A 6.1 A 42

B 13.0 B 100

C 6.4 C 44

D 1.0 D 0

E 7.0 E 50

1) Indicative only

77 100 x 60% + 42 x 40% =

A:

1

B: 71 2

C: 18 4

D: 1 5

E: 57 3

Source: Roland Berger

4

Evaluation method

9 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

We group cities into two clusters for the final ranking to ensure we are comparing like with like

EVALUATION OF FOCUS CITIES – BACKUP

Source: Roland Berger

4

Ranking of cities in two clusters

Cluster 1

> London

> Paris

> Berlin

> Rome

> Madrid

> Prague

> Vienna

> Amsterdam

> Istanbul

> Stockholm

Overnight stays, 2010 [m]

48.7

35.8

20.8

20.4

15.2

12.1

11.7

9.7

9.1

6.3

Cluster 2

> Lisbon

> Budapest

> Brussels

> Athens

> Copenhagen

> Zurich

> Oslo

> Helsinki

> Tallinn

> Bratislava

> Belgrade

> Zagreb

> Luxembourg

> Ljubljana

Overnight stays, 2010 [m]

6.2

5.9

5.6

5.4

5.1

3.7

3.3

3.2

2.3

1.4

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.7

COMMENTS

> Interviewees pointed out that cities generally compare their performance to a limited set of other cities

> Their selection of cities for comparison depends mainly on performance, size, maturity of the tourism industry and visitor motivation

> Accordingly, we grouped cities into two clusters for the final ranking

> Data on revenue per available room, average daily room rate and occupancy was only available for the ten cities in Cluster 1 – the clustering means that we can analyze value creation in city tourism for this group at least

B. Analysis and evaluation European capitals have been evaluated along a set of seven criteria

11 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Tourism has expanded much faster than the overall economy in Europe in recent years – City tourism has performed best

Development of the tourism industry

Source: ECM, Eurostat, TourMIS, Roland Berger

114

111

112

108

105107106104

104

107106

103

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

108

100 100 100

103

107

GDP of EU-27

Overnight stays in focus countries

Overnight stays in focus cities

COMMENTS

> City tourism suffered less during the economic crisis than expected

> In the crisis year 2009, the GDP of the EU-27 fell 4.3% while city tourism decreased by just 3.5%

> In 2010, GDP recovered slowly while city tourism recovered fast, with overnight stays up 6.8%

> Tourism is a key growth driver for the overall economy. City tourism outperforms the rest of the industry

> We analyze the top cities, their perform-ance, trends and challenges in the report

City tourism, CAGR 2005-2010 [index =100]

12 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

We analyze the cities along seven different dimensions

COMMENTS

> The different dimensions selected for the evaluation are well balanced

> The growth in the number of overnight stays is used as the key criterion; increasing this figure is the overall goal. The current number of overnight stays is also included as otherwise mature markets would be at a disadvantage

> Due to limited data, revenue per available room is used for Cluster 1 cities only

Dimensions Period

100%

Source: Roland Berger

Evaluation criteria

10

100%

III GROWTH IN BED CAPACITY

2005-2010

VI ACCESSIBILITY 2011

I GROWTH IN OVERNIGHT STAYS

2005-2010

II NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT STAYS

2010

VII CONGRESSES 2009

V INTERNATIONALITY 2010

2010

IV VALUE CREATION 2010

Selected benchmarking criteria

CAGR for bed capacity

Number of direct flight connections

CAGR for overnight stays

No. of overnight stays relative to inhabitants

Number of congresses

Share of European tourists

Share of non-European tourists

Revenue per available room

Weighting cluster 1 [%]

Weighting cluster 2 [%]

15 20

15 20

20 30

10 10

10 10

5 5

5 5

20 n.a.

10

Criteria for all cities Criterion for Cluster 1 cities only

13 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Berlin, Stockholm and Ljubljana enjoyed the biggest increase in the number of overnight stays in the last five years

Source: TourMIS, ECM, Roland Berger

Growth in the number of overnight stays, CAGR 2005-2010 [%]

I GROWTH IN OVERNIGHT STAYS

BRA

0.5

BUD

-2.1

BEL

-0.7

LON

-0.5

IST1)

-0.4

LUX1) ATH1)

-5.4

PAR

1.2

PRA

1.5

ZAG

2.4

COP

2.8

OSL

3.3

TAL

3.4

AMS

3.5

BRU

3.6

LIS

3.9

0.1

ZUR

4.1

ROM

4.2

VIE

4.3

MAD

4.4

HEL

4.5

LJU

5.2

STO1)

5.7

BER

7.3

Avg. 2.4

1) 2005-2009 only

14 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

London and Paris had by far the most overnight stays in 2010 – However, some cities are much bigger than others

Source: TourMIS, ECM, Eurostat, Roland Berger

LJU

0.7

LUX1)

0.8

ZAG

1.0

BEL

1.3

STO1) OSL

6.3 3.3

BRA

1.4

TAL

2.3

HEL

3.2

ZUR

3.7

COP

5.1

ATH1)

5.4

BRU

5.6

BUD

5.9

LIS

6.2

IST1)

9.1

AMS

9.7

VIE

11.7

PRA

12.1

MAD

15.2

ROM

20.4

BER

20.8

PAR

35.8

LON

48.7

Number of overnight stays, 2010 [m]

II NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT STAYS

Inhabi- tants [m]

7.7 3.4 3.2 1.7 0.7 8.8 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.3 4.4 2.7 1.2

1) 2009

15 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Amsterdam and Lisbon had the most overnight stays relative to the number of inhabitants

Source: TourMIS, ECM, Eurostat, Roland Berger

Istanbul 1.0 Belgrade 1.1 Zagreb 1.3 Ljubljana 2.7 Bratislava 3.2 Budapest 3.4 Madrid 4.7 Brussels 5.3 Helsinki 5.7 Tallinn 5.7 Oslo 5.9 Berlin 6.1 London 6.4 Athens 6.7 Vienna 7.0 Rome 7.5 Stockholm 7.7 Paris 8.2 Luxembourg 9.0 Zurich 9.7 Copenhagen 10.1 Prague 10.3 Lisbon 12.6 Amsterdam 13.0

Avg. 6.4

COMMENTS

> Amsterdam and Lisbon had by far the most overnight stays relative to the number of inhabitants

> The number of inhabitants can be hard to define as it depends on how the area of the city is defined, however it gives the figures more context

> Prague was the best performer in CEE

> Most CEE countries have a below-average number of overnight stays per inhabitant

Overnight stays per inhabitant, 2010

II NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT STAYS

16 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

STARS – Above-average number of overnight stays per inhabitant and above-average growth > Amsterdam, Lisbon and Stockholm are top performers

HIGH POTENTIALS – Relatively small number of overnight stays but above-average growth > Berlin, Stockholm and Ljubljana have the strongest increase in the

number of overnight stays – Berlin is well on its way to joining the "stars"

> Ljubljana shows positive growth, but current volumes are still low

FOLLOWERS – Above-average number of overnight stays but below-average growth > Paris, Prague & Luxembourg have had below-average growth since

2005 > Athens has the lowest CAGR of the focus cities

LAGGARDS – Below-average number of overnight stays and below-average growth > Belgrade and Budapest risk losing ground to other cities if no action

is taken > Need to identify reasons for poor performance

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

IST

BEL

ZAG

LJU

BRA

BUD

MAD

BRU

HEL

TAL OSL

BER

LON

ATH

VIE ROM

STO

PAR

LUX

ZUR

COP

PRA

LIS

AMS

Amsterdam and Lisbon are the top performers – Large number of overnight stays today and strong growth since 2005

Source: TourMIS, ECM, Eurostat, Roland Berger

CAGR for overnight stays 2005-20101) [%]

Average

Overnight stays per inhabitant, 2010

A B

C D

CONCLUSIONS

A

B

C

D

Current volume and growth matrix

II NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT STAYS

1) 2005-2009 only for Athens, Istanbul, Luxembourg and Stockholm

17 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Overnight stays per arrival are low in city tourism – Even small increases here help draw people away from the well-beaten path

Source: TourMIS, ECM, Roland Berger

-1.2 -1.3 -0.4 -1.8 1.5 0.3 -1.1 0.1 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.4 0.8 0.0 -0.8 0.3 0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -10.7

1.2

IST2) ZUR

1.7

ZAG

1.7

HEL

1.8

TAL

1.8

AMS

1.8

LUX2)

1.9

BRU2)

1.9

LJU

1.9

MAD

1.9

BRA

2.0

ATH2)

2.1

BEL

2.1

LIS

2.2

VIE

2.2

BER

2.3

PAR

2.4

BUD2)

2.4

ROM2)

2.4

PRA

2.5

LON

2.6

Avg. 2.0

Overnight stays per arrival1), 2010

CAGR 2005-2010 [%]

II NUMBER OF OVERNIGHT STAYS

1) No figures available for Copenhagen, Oslo and Stockholm 2) 2005-2009 only

18 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Ljubljana shows outstanding growth rates in bed capacities over the last five years – Good indicator of market trust by private investors

Source: ECM, Roland Berger

Bed capacity, CAGR 2005-20101) [%]

III GROWTH IN BED CAPACITY

-3.0

LON

-2.5

BRU

-0.5

PAR

0.3

LIS

1.6

ZUR

2.3

HEL

2.4

ZAG

2.5

COP

2.8

MAD

3.0

ROM

3.3

LUX

3.4

VIE

3.7

OSL

4.0

PRA

4.5

AMS

4.5

BUD

5.0

BEL

5.3

BRA

5.8

BER

5.9

STO

6.4

TAL

7.0

LJU

11.4

IST

Avg. 3.4

1) No data for Athens; 2005-2009 only for Bratislava, Brussels, Budapest, Istanbul, London, Luxembourg and Stockholm

5 15 106 112 12 34 44 48 83 19 56 6 94 76 27 7 16 17 35 Hotel beds '000, 2010

152 31 213 7

19 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

PRA

BER MAD

VIE

STO

AMS ROM

LON PAR

Paris and London achieve the highest revenue per available room for Cluster 1 cities

Average

Revenue per available room (RevPAR)1)

IV VALUE CREATION (CLUSTER 1 CITIES ONLY)

Source: IHA, STR Global, Factiva, Roland Berger

Average daily room rate [EUR]

Occupancy rate [%]

Avg. daily room rate and occupancy rate, 2010 COMMENTS

> RevPAR is calculated by multiplying the average daily room rate by the occupancy rate

> Paris and London achieve highest RevPAR among Cluster 1 cities, with both the highest room rate and highest occupancy rate

> Clear positive correlation between occupancy rates and room rates

> Prague, Madrid and Berlin have both below-average room rates and below-average occupancy rates – need to examine possible reasons, e.g. oversupply of hotel beds

71

87

90

91

94

118

127

139

149

171

PRA

BER

MAD

VIE

IST

STO

AMS

ROM

LON

PAR

Revenue per available room, 2010 [EUR]

Avg. 114

1) Comparable data available for Cluster 1 cities only; For Istanbul only RevPAR 2009 available

20 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

STARS – Above-average increase in bed capacity and above-average revenue per available room > Amsterdam, Stockholm are the top performers, with both high

RevPAR and strong capacity growth

CASH COWS – Above-average RevPAR but below-average capacity growth > In London, bed capacity has been falling over the last five years; in

Paris, it remained almost static

QUESTION MARKS – Above-average bed capacity growth but below-average RevPAR > Risk that revenue per available room will fall further as bed

capacities rise > However, if there is sufficient demand for the new capacity,

significant potential for positive development exists

LAGGARDS – Below-average growth in bed capacity and below-average RevPAR > Madrid is below-avg. in terms of both capacity growth and RevPAR > Need to find out why

Increasing bed capacity is not always a sign of good prices and occupancy levels

Revenue per available room, 2010 [EUR]

Statistical correlation

Bed capacity, CAGR 2005-20101) [%]

A B

C D

CONCLUSIONS

A

B

C

D

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) and changes in bed capacity

IV

Source: ECM, IHA, STR Global, Roland Berger

VALUE CREATION (CLUSTER 1 CITIES ONLY)

1) 2005-2009 only for Istanbul, London and Stockholm

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Amsterdam

Vienna Berlin Madrid

Istanbul

London

Paris

Prague

Rome

Stockholm

21 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Share of international overnight stays indicates the diversification of a city's tourism markets – Significant differences between cities

Source: TourMIS, ECM

Share of inbound overnight stays, 2010 [%]

V INTERNATIONALITY

20 13

1817 21

23

39

1929

1822

29

914

287

2414

10 35

41

7072

BRA

57

50

PAR

63

34

COP

65

51

BEL

66

57

ROM ATH

70

41

IST LIS

74

52

ZAG

75

57

ZUR

77

48

VIE

77

59

LON

79

40

AMS

81

58

BRU

86

65

BUD

86

69

TAL

90

85

5

PRA

90

72

LUX

94

81

LJU

96

76

OSL BER

41

31

STO HEL

54

40

MAD

54

31

Non-European inbound European inbound Total inbound (split between European and non-European not available)

55

19

Avg.

1) Including Istanbul, Rome, Stockholm and Oslo, for which the split between European and non-European was not available

711)

22 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

London and Paris are by far the most accessible cities in Europe for tourists arriving by air

Source: Roland Berger

16222324

2829

4365

7880

9396

111111

118129130

146153

168176

205292

301

Ljubljana Oslo Tallinn Zagreb Luxembourg Budapest Helsinki Lisbon Athens Prague Copenhagen Berlin Stockholm Vienna Zurich Brussels Madrid Rome Istanbul Amsterdam Paris London

Belgrade Bratislava Avg. 110

COMMENTS

> Low-budget airlines with more affordable tickets have been a crucial growth driver in city tourism

> The increasing significance of accessibility by air is a risk factor for cities not located close to international hubs

> Apart from offering tax incentives, it is difficult for cities to increase the number of flight connections they have

Number of direct flight connections1) [flight schedule for summer 2011]

VI ACCESSIBILITY

1) Destinations connected with at least one direct flight per week

23 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Vienna is the clear leader in congress tourism in Europe, followed by Paris and Berlin

VII CONGRESSES

No. of congresses hosted1), 2009

Source: ICCA

101213

252635

505657

697375

8083868787

9898102103

129131

160

ZAG LUX BEL LJU OSL BRA TAL HEL ZUR ROM BRU ATH IST LON PRA BUD MAD AMS LIS STO COP BER PAR VIE

CAGR '04-'09 [%]

7.0 1.5 6.6 4.9 4.4 -0.2 0.5 1.8 9.0 6.4 4.7 0.3 23.3 0.4 0.4 15.5 1.6 20.1 -5.2 0.0 0.0 -0.7 5.4 3.9

1) Most recent year with comparable data is 2009

24 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

A significant correlation exists between the number of congresses hosted and the number of overnight stays

Source: TourMIS, ECM, ICCA, Roland Berger

> In 2010, for the third year in a row, Vienna hosted the largest number of congresses

> Other CEE capitals have a very small number of both congresses and overnight stays

> The correlation reveals that congresses are a strong driver of tourism

Statistical correlation

Correlation between congresses and overnight stays, 2009

VII CONGRESSES

COMMENTS

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

HEL

ZUR

ROM

BRU

ATH

Overnight stays (m)

LON

PRA

BUD

MAD

AMS

LIS STO

COP

BER

PAR

VIE

48

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

No. of congresses

IST

ZAG

LUX BRA

BEL

LJU TAL

OSL

25 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Good accessibility by air is a prerequisite for being a successful congress location

Source: ICCA, Roland Berger

Statistical correlation

Correlation between direct flight connections and congresses1)

ACCESSIBILITY & CONGRESSES

> A significant correlation is found between flight connections and number of congresses

> The analysis shows that fewer than 60 direct flight connections means insufficient accessibility and congress numbers are significantly lower

> From 60 to 180 connections, the criterion of accessibility is met – most successful congress destinations fall into this group

> Additional connections above 180 do not correlate with a significant increase in congresses

COMMENTS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320

No. of congresses

Flight connections

ZAG LUX

BRA BEL

LJU

TAL

OSL HEL ZUR ROM BRU

ATH IST

LON PRA BUD MAD AMS LIS

STO COP

BER PAR

VIE

1) Number of direct flight connections [flight schedule for summer 2011]; most recent year with comparable data on congresses is 2009

VI+VII

26 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Paris and Amsterdam score best – Rome, Stockholm, Berlin and Vienna follow, neck and neck

Source: Roland Berger

Results of the ranking1)

2 Amsterdam

3 Rome

4 Stockholm

1 Paris

5 Berlin

5 Vienna

7 London

8 Madrid

9 Prague

10 Istanbul

1

2

3

1) Cluster 1 cities

27 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Paris and Amsterdam score best – Rome, Stockholm, Berlin and Vienna follow, neck and neck

Source: Roland Berger

Evaluation of Cluster 11) – barometer (100 = best performer)

1) Top 10 cities in terms of absolute number of overnight stays 2010 – clustering enables better benchmarking 2) Where the non-European share was not available, the criterion's percentage weight was distributed equally among the other criteria for calculating the total result 3) Berlin's score is 49.25, Vienna's 49.16

TOTAL

61.6

60.6

51.6

51.5

49.2

49.2

45.4

38.6

32.9

31.8

Evaluation criteria

City/weight [%]

1 Paris

2 Amsterdam

3 Rome

4 Stockholm

5 Berlin

5 Vienna3)

7 London

8 Madrid

9 Prague

10 Istanbul

Overnight stays, CAGR

20

22

51

60

80

100

61

0

62

26

1

Overnight stays per inh.

10

60

100

54

56

42

50

44

31

78

0

Non-domes-tic share

5

45

81

59

0

0

74

77

27

100

62

Non-Eur. share

52)

64

46

n.a.2)

n.a.2)

0

31

100

48

28

n.a.2)

Bed capacity, CAGR

15

31

79

66

87

94

69

0

62

78

100

Accessi- bility

15

96

53

35

11

7

16

100

28

0

39

Congresses

10

68

32

0

36

66

100

15

20

19

12

RevPAR

20

100

56

68

47

16

20

78

19

0

23

BACKUP

28 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

The barometer is based on the results of the evaluation

Evaluation of Cluster 1 – summary of results

BACKUP

Source: TourMIS, ECM, ICCA, Roland Berger

Evaluation criteria

City/weight [%]

1 Paris

2 Amsterdam

3 Rome

4 Stockholm

5 Berlin

5 Vienna

7 London

8 Madrid

9 Prague

10 Istanbul

Overn. stays, CAGR [%]

20

1.2

3.5

4.2

5.7

7.3

4.3

-0.5

4.4

1.5

-0.4

Overn. stays per inh. [no.]

10

8.2

13.0

7.5

7.7

6.1

7.0

6.4

4.7

10.3

1.0

Non-domestic share [%]

5

62.9

80.9

70.0

40.9

40.9

77.3

79.0

54.4

90.3

71.5

Non-European share [%]

5

28.4

23.1

n.a.

n.a.

9.9

18.8

38.7

23.8

17.9

n.a.

Bed capacity, CAGR [%]

15

0.3

4.5

3.3

5.3

5.9

3.7

-2.5

3.0

4.5

6.4

Accessibility [no. dir. flights]

15

292

205

168

118

111

129

301

153

96

176

Congresses [no.]

10

131

98

69

102

129

160

83

87

86

80

RevPAR [EUR]

20

171

127

139

118

87

91

149

90

71

94

29 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Zurich wins the Cluster 2 ranking ahead of Lisbon and Copenhagen

Source: Roland Berger

Results of the ranking1)

1 Zurich

2 Lisbon

3 Copenhagen

4 Brussels

5 Ljubljana

6 Helsinki

7 Tallinn

8 Oslo

9 Budapest

10 Athens

11 Luxembourg

12 Zagreb

13 Bratislava

14 Belgrade

1) Cluster 2 cities

1

2

3

30 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Zurich, Lisbon and Copenhagen top the ranking for Cluster 2 cities

Source: Roland Berger

Evaluation of Cluster 21) – barometer (100 = best performer)

City/weight [%]

1) Top 11-24 cities in terms of absolute number of overnight stays 2010 – clustering enables better benchmarking 2) Where bed capacity CAGR or the non-European share was not available, the criterion's percentage weight was distributed equally among the other criteria for calculating the total result

Evaluation criteria

TOTAL

1 Zurich 72.7

2 Lisbon 68.7

3 Copenhagen 67.9

4 Brussels 66.8

5 Ljubljana 62.3

6 Helsinki 57.2

7 Tallinn 51.9

8 Oslo 45.9

9 Budapest 44.8

10 Athens 42.8

11 Luxembourg 42.3

12 Zagreb 37.9

13 Bratislava 34.4

14 Belgrade

30

Overnight stays, CAGR

90

88

77

85

100

93

83

82

31

0

52

73

56

44

10

Overnight stays per inh.

75

100

78

36

14

40

40

42

20

49

68

2

18

0

5

Non-domestic share

69

64

49

84

100

31

90

0

85

58

98

67

37

51

52)

Non-European share

100

69

38

65

62

37

0

n.a.2)

50

100

34

56

10

17

202)

Bed capacity, CAGR

36

32

40

17

100

37

70

49

55

n.a.2)

44

38

61

0

20

Accessi- bility

88

49

73

100

5

48

9

6

38

59

21

10

5

0

10

Congresses

51

95

100

68

17

49

27

43

83

70

2

0

3

16 18.3

BACKUP

31 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

The barometer is based on the results of the evaluation

Evaluation of Cluster 2 – summary

BACKUP

Source: TourMIS, ECM, ICCA, Roland Berger

Evaluation criteria

City/weight [%]

1 Zurich

2 Lisbon

3 Copenhagen

4 Brussels

5 Ljubljana

6 Helsinki

7 Tallinn

8 Oslo

9 Budapest

10 Athens

11 Luxembourg

12 Zagreb

13 Bratislava

14 Belgrade

Overnight stays, CAGR [%]

30

4.1

3.9

2.8

3.6

5.2

4.5

3.4

3.3

-2.1

-5.4

0.1

2.4

0.5

-0.7

Overnight stays per inh. [no.]

10

9.7

12.6

10.1

5.3

2.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

3.4

6.7

9.0

1.3

3.2

1.1

Non-domestic share [%]

5

76.7

73.7

64.8

85.8

95.6

53.7

89.7

34.8

86.4

70.1

94.4

75.4

57.5

65.8

Non-European share [%]

5

29.0

21.6

14.1

20.7

19.8

13.8

4.8

n.a.

17.0

29.1

13.0

18.3

7.3

9.0

Bed capacity, CAGR [%]

20

2.3

1.6

2.8

-0.5

11.4

2.4

7.0

4.0

5.0

n.a.

3.4

2.5

5.8

-3.0

Accessibility [no. direct flights]

20

130

80

111

146

23

78

28

24

65

93

43

29

22

16

Congresses [no.]

10

57

98

103

73

26

56

35

50

87

75

12

10

13

25

C. Conclusions City tourism is a key growth driver for the economy and professional strategy development is a key success factor

33 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

City tourism strategies are available online for just 7 of the 24 capital cities in the study

Source: City tourism strategies, Roland Berger research

1) It is assumed that if a city has a professional tourism strategy, it also makes it available online

Tourism strategies available online1)

BERLIN 2011

HELSINKI 2011

LISBON 2011-2014

LJUBLJANA 2007-2013

VIENNA 2010-2015

LONDON 2009-2013

AMSTERDAM 2009-2012

Tourismuskonzept Berlin

Helsinki's tourism strategy

Turismo de Lisboa strategic marketing plan

Strategic development and marketing plan

Tourismuskonzept 2015

London Tourism Action Plan

Strategic marketing & communication plan

> SWOT > National/

international benchmarks

> Visitor structures, market segments

> Strategic targets and actions

> Strategic targets > Tasks > KPIs

> Vision and ambition

> Objectives > Positioning/

branding: markets, segments, products

> Implementation programs

> SWOT > Quantitative and

qualitative objectives

> Positioning, branding, selling proposition

> To-do's, responsi-bilities, timing

> Balanced scorecard: objectives, KPIs, actions

> Strategic framework with regional targets

> Strategic priorities > Action plan/timing

> Trends and key success factors

> Markets and com-petitors

> Targets, positioning and image

> Actions and stakeholders

> Marketing concept

> SWOT > Tourism product

development > Strategy and

objectives > Marketing tools > Financial

framework

34 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

Cities with a professional tourism strategy show stronger growth in the number of arrivals and overnight stays

4.2 Cities publishing a tourism strategy2)

1.9 Cities not publishing a tourism strategy

ARRIVALS

OVERNIGHT STAYS

4.0 Cities publishing a tourism strategy2)

1.7 Cities not publishing a tourism strategy

COMMENTS

> Only 7 of the 24 focus cities publish a tourism strategy online

> Berlin, Lisbon, London and Vienna had professional tourism concepts even before 2005; for Ljubljana, the first document available is from 2007; for Amsterdam and Helsinki, the year the first document was published is not available

> Cities publishing a tourism strategy show stronger growth in the number of arrivals and overnight stays

> Publishing the strategy is essential for successful communication with stakeholders

> Developing and communicating a professional strategy is an area with a large upside potential for most cities in the study

Growth of tourism – CAGR 2005-20101) [%]

Source: TourMIS, Roland Berger research

1) Luxembourg 2005-2009, Athens 2005-2007, Rome arrivals 2005-2009, Istanbul overnight stays 2005-2009

2) Amsterdam, Berlin, Helsinki, Lisbon, Ljubljana, London, Vienna

Impact of a professional tourism strategy

35 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

> Capital city tourism significantly outperforms GDP development both in times of crisis and recovery

> There is a negative correlation between bed capacity growth over the last five years and RevPARs, except in Amsterdam and Stockholm

> There is a clear correlation between the number of congresses hosted by a city and the number of overnight stays

> 60 flight connections appears to be the minimum required to attract a significant number of congresses

> A surprising number of capital cities do not publish a tourism master plan – only 7 out of the 24 focus cities do publish such a plan

> Cities with a published tourism master plan have growth rates in arrivals and overnight stays of around twice as much compared to those not publishing a plan

> Capital city tourism is a key driver of growth and should be exploited accordingly

Conclusions (1/3) – Capital city tourism is a key growth driver

36 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

> In general, cities should publish better data – professional, focused and up-to-date statistics are not universally available

> Some cities that have a large number of overnight stays compared to the number of inhabitants need to manage potential friction between local residents and visitors – marketing tourism within the country itself is increasingly important to keep local residents happy and prevent them feeling like they are living in a zoo

> Many cities are trying to encourage repeat visits and attract tourists away from the city's main attractions to other parts of the city

> Developing infrastructure is a key element in the strategies of successful cities

> Changes in bed capacity are a measure of the success of the city's image and trust by investors – however, excessive growth generally results in low RevPAR for hotel operators and can threaten the survival of their business

Conclusions (2/3) – Growth needs to be managed well in order to be sustainable

37 European_Capital_City_Tourism_FINAL.pptx

> On average, 29% of overnight stays relate to domestic tourism, 55% to other European visitors and 19% to non-European visitors

> The share of non-European guests is a good indicator for the city's global attractiveness and resistance to local/regional crises – diversification of visitors

> The organizational structures for managing city tourism vary – Berlin has a highly professional DMO1): a public private partnership with a significant share of funding generated by profit-oriented activities

> The main barriers to cities developing a tourism strategy are the uncoordinated involvement of a large number of stakeholders, too little responsibility assigned to the relevant body, excessive political influence and self-satisfaction regarding current performance

> Capital city tourism offers a large upside potential in most European countries

Conclusions (3/3) – Coordination and professional management is a key success factor

1) Destination Marketing Organization

impact! that creates

It's character