REPORT 

2018/19 BEST BETS GUIDE  - MATCHDAYPROFITS.COM 

 

 

 

© Paul Ruffy 2018 

Cautionary Note/Disclaimer: You are solely responsible for any money that you bet, win 

or lose.   

No reproduction or distribution of this report is permitted without the prior consent of 

the author 

 

 

 

 

  

 

Contents 

 

 

Contents 2 

Welcome 3 

Premier League 5 

Championship 10 

FA Cup 13 

League Cup 17 

Champions League (plus a Europa League bet) 20 

European Bankers 24 

Bonus! Season Acca! 26 

More to come… 28 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

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Welcome 

  

Dear Reader, 

  

My name is Paul Ruffy and I’d like to welcome you to my Best Bets guide for the 

2018/19 football season. 

 

Before we begin - a little transparency, I’ve employed a little help with my 

Ante-post bets again this year (as in 16/17), so this guide guide is co-written by 

myself and the rather excellent Josh Allen, whose opinion I value and respect. 

  

In this guide we’ve taken a look at the most hotly contested competitions of the 

new season (plus the League Cup!) and picked out the very best value ante-post 

plays based on summer signings, key statistics and, of course, good 

old-fashioned form study. 

  

Time and time again ante-post betting throws up excellent value propositions, 

particularly in the world of football where the bookmakers have a pretty tight 

grip on the day to day win markets but tend to make more ricks when it comes 

to long term investments. 

  

In this guide we’ve highlighted some of those ricks for you to exploit in addition 

to some more general snippets of useful information such as our ‘European 

Bankers’ page which takes a look at those bets that come in time and time again 

– perfect weekend accumulator material if you ask us! 

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Plus, we even have a bonus section which bids to follow up on a cracking 20/1 

winning five-fold that I sent out to members last season. 

  

We hope you enjoy this guide and if you have any questions about the contents 

do feel free to drop us an email at admin@matchdayprofits.com . Otherwise sit 

back, relax and prepare to profit. 

  

Best Wishes, 

 

   

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

 

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Premier League 

  

A season which started out with huge promise – Guardiola vs. Klopp vs. 

Mourinho vs. Pochettino vs. Conte vs. Wenger – very quickly turned into a 

procession as Guardiola and Manchester City swept aside all before them. City 

fans won’t care of course and nor should they, with their title win one of the 

most impressive in recent memory. 

  

With Wenger’s spell at Arsenal stuttering to a halt, the rest of the top four quickly 

became a three from four scenario and it was Chelsea who missed out, 

continuing their run of great year followed by awful year. 

  

The rest of the league was, well, a bit of a mess to be honest. Burnley ended as 

the best of the rest despite barely winning a game in the second half of the 

season. Everton and Leicester were comfortable-ish after dodgy starts and the 

remainder (10th place Newcastle to 20th place West Brom) could easily have 

finished in the reverse order and nobody would have batted an eye-lid. 

 

 

 

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What does that tell us? I think 1) the ‘big six’ is not going to be breached this 

season and 2) the rest of the division is much of a muchness, so don’t be afraid 

of backing a big price to finish in the top 10 or to get relegated. 

  

Three To Follow 

  

Liverpool: Let’s do a quick rundown of that ‘big six’… 

  

Manchester City are extremely hard to oppose in any of the markets 

domestically or otherwise BUT they are priced accordingly. I think the best place 

to follow them this season, in terms of betting value at least, may be in the 

Champions League as it would only be natural for them to take their foot off the 

gas domestically in search of prizes not yet already won. I’d certainly be very 

surprised if they were to match or better last season’s points tally. 

  

Manchester United look to be on the brink of meltdown. Mourinho’s best season 

has always been his second and his second at United was distinctly 

underwhelming, with the Portugeezer spending most of his time falling out with 

players and blaming everyone but himself for his side’s poor performances. With 

minimal transfer activity so far this summer and the existing players getting 

increasingly sick of their boss, this could be a season of calamity at Old Trafford. 

  

Chelsea could be a wildcard with yet another new manager but you have to 

worry about their attack with Morata and Giroud distinctly average and Eden 

Hazard possibly with an eye on the exit. 

 6 

  

  

Arsenal are clearly in transition and their best chance of achieving Champions 

League football may be by winning the Europa League. 

  

Tottenham have almost an entire team returning home late from the World Cup 

which will likely result in a slow start to the season. Their strength in depth 

issues haven’t been addressed and a new stadium may also cause some early 

season problems. 

  

That all leaves Liverpool who look to have done some fantastic business in 

keeping their best players and improving their weakest positions and who also 

have the benefit of a near full pre-season for star names like Mane and Salah. 

  

It’ll be a tough ask for anybody to finish ahead of City but the Reds look to be in 

comfortably the best position to mount a credible challenge. 

  

Wolves and Fulham: Given the dross in the bottom half of the Premier League 

last season it was no major surprise to see newly promoted Newcastle finishing 

in the top 10 and newly promoted Huddersfield and Brighton staying up. That 

should give great hope to Wolves, Fulham and, to a lesser extent, Cardiff. 

  

Wolves are clearly a bit of an open secret given their newfound influence in the 

transfer market but there could still be a bit of bite in Fulham prices both 

long-term and on a match by match basis. 

  

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Sadio Mane: The great thing about Liverpool’s strike-force is that if one of them 

doesn’t get you, one of the other two probably will. That was neatly 

demonstrated in the Champions League last season when Salah, Mane and 

Firmino ended the campaign tied on 10 goals apiece. 

  

Mo Salah bets will no doubt be all the rage this season and with good reason 

but, given opposition defences will likely start doubling up on him, Mane could 

be left in acres of space to do some serious damage down the opposite flank – 

and at much better odds too. 

  

Three To Avoid 

  

Jose Mourinho: This is the third time Mourinho has made it to the third season in 

charge of a Premier League club. On the two previous occasions he came into 

that season as a champion but ended up out of a job by Christmas. This time he 

comes into the season with no current medals and very little remaining goodwill. 

  

Watford and Javi Gracia: Javi Gracia was brought in midway through last season 

to steady the ship after Marco Silva’s dismissal and he did an okay job but 

nothing more than that – Watford were 10th when Silva was sacked, five points 

above the drop zone and ended the season 14th, eight points above the drop 

zone. 

  

With the honeymoon period now over and the Watford owners’ penchant for 

shiny new managers it’s a surprise Gracia isn’t a shorter price in the ‘Next 

Manager to Leave’ market. If it is the intention to give him a fair crack of the whip 

then a Watford relegation would also look a decent price. 

 8 

  

  

Newcastle, Huddersfield and Burnley (if): These three teams should not have 

finished 7th, 10th and 16th last season given their resources and the fact that they 

did says a hell of a lot about their respective managers. If any of them leave early 

on in the season their team will be a massive bet for the drop. 

 

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

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Championship 

  

The competitiveness of the Championship has almost become a bit of a cliché 

but that’s not to say there isn’t any truth in it – quite the opposite in fact. While 

it’s true that Wolves were fairly easy to spot last season (and Newcastle the 

season before), in Cardiff there was yet another promoted team who appeared 

more likely to be going down than up at the start of the campaign. 

  

The relegation battle was also as entertaining as ever and Sunderland’s double 

drop will provide a stark warning to Stoke, West Brom and Swansea, not that 

they should need it. 

  

 

 

  

 

 

 

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Two To Follow 

  

Middlesbrough: Fair play to Tony Pulis who could no doubt have picked up 

another lower half Premier League job but instead decided to try and take Boro 

back to the promised land. It’s probably not a bad shout either as he’s taken on a 

squad which looked remarkably similar to his Stoke City side (minus the success) 

during their most recent stay in the top flight. 

  

I really am struggling to see them out of the top six which makes the fact they’re 

almost the same odds as the nutjobs at Leeds United pretty remarkable. 

  

Ipswich: Ipswich probably owe a fair bit to Mick McCarthy with the gruff 

Yorkshireman keeping them in the division year after year despite spending 

barely a pittance. Having said that, the fans clearly fell out of love with Mick and 

so pretty much any change would have done them good but they appear to have 

landed a real good ‘un in appointing Paul Hurst as manager. 

  

Hurst worked wonders at Shrewsbury on a tight budget and as pre-season third 

favourites for relegation, I think the Tractor Boys could easily be the surprise 

package of the season. 

  

One To Avoid 

  

Derby County: In the storm of Championship unpredictability Derby County 

provide a sea of tranquillity. Yes, they will start the season strongly, yes they will 

be challenging for automatic promotion around Christmas time, yes they will fall 

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away in the second half of the season, sack their manager prepare to do it all 

over again. 

  

While all around them yoyo between triumph and disaster, Derby have spent the 

last six seasons finishing 10th, 3rd, 8th, 5th, 9th and 6th. 

  

Frank Lampard is the next man to try and lift them out of their slump. There are 

easier first jobs in football management. 

  

One To Enjoy 

  

Marcelo Bielsa and Leeds United: The best coach in the world according to Pep 

Guardiola (and plenty of others) is now the manager of Leeds United. Leeds 

United who have had 13 managers since 2012. This’ll be fun. 

 

 

 

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FA Cup 

  

The greatest cup competition in the world or a depressing indictment of the way 

football is headed in the age of the £200milllion player? 

  

Regardless of exactly what you think of the FA Cup, there’s no doubt that it 

remains an entertaining competition and a pretty difficult one to attack from a 

betting perspective (in the early rounds anyway). Still, that doesn’t mean there’s 

no potential angle of attack for us and I’ve detailed some possible routes to 

profit on this very page.  

  

 

 

 

  

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Two To Follow 

  

The big boys: As I’ve already mentioned, the FA Cup is generally won by one of 

the big guns, despite there being a few shocks and heart-warming tales along 

the way, and once again I can’t see that changing this year. 

  

I say once again, because you may recognise this segment from previous Best 

Bets guide and I make no apology for that. Madness is doing the same thing over 

and over again and expecting a different outcome, so why on earth would I stop 

focusing on the big boys now when nothing is changing in the wider world of 

football?! 

  

Lower league teams with momentum: When shocks do occur they tend to be 

less surprising than you may think. Sure, a League One team beating a Premier 

League team sounds mad but often the League One side is flying high and the 

Premier League team is struggling, so it could almost be seen as a Championship 

match up. 

  

The Cup is full of examples of ‘shocks’ by teams who are having an excellent 

season in the league or in other cup competitions. When non-league Lincoln 

made the quarters a couple of years ago, they were in the process of getting 

promoted and that’s just one of many examples. It’s rare that a team near the 

foot of their own division pulls off an upset, so rather than focus on the division 

a team is in, instead look for sides in-form playing sides out of form – it’s as 

simple as that! 

  

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Two To Avoid 

  

Tottenham: The notable exception from the list of ‘big boy’ winners is Tottenham 

Hotspur and it’s now a whopping 27 years since they won the Cup. 

  

While they’ve been performing reasonably in the competition in the last few 

years, they’ve never really looked like winning it. It clearly isn’t a priority for 

manager Pochettino and even if it became one, they do tend to choke when they 

get close to the finishing line. At similar odds to the rest of the ‘Big Six’ I’d side 

with proven pedigree all day long. 

  

QPR: This is another one I’ve mentioned in previous guides but it’s one of my 

favourite stats in football so screw it! 

  

At the other end of the spectrum to the big boys are QPR. Poor, broken QPR. 

Since 2001 the R’s have won two FA Cup games. Yes, you read that right… two. 

  

Whoever they get in the third round, oppose them! 

  

 

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League Cup 

  

The domestic competition everybody loves to hate is actually one of my 

favourites – with all too predictable upsets (see below) and fantastically 

entertaining matches as teams cut loose and throw caution to the wind what’s 

not to like?! 

  

 

 

 

  

One To Follow 

  

Midranking Premier League clubs: While the FA Cup has proved almost as hard 

to win in the Premier League era as the Premier League itself, the League Cup 

provides a realistic shot at glory for those top-flight sides who potter along year 

in year out, seemingly content with a 10th place finish. Here is a list of some of 

the finalists since 2000: Leicester (winners), Tranmere, Birmingham City (twice, 

winners once), Blackburn Rovers (winners), Tottenham (when they were 

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rubbish), Middlesbrough (winners), Bolton, Wigan, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Swansea 

(winners), Bradford, Sunderland, Southampton. 

  

One To Avoid 

  

Big wins for the big boys: I’ve already mentioned the large number of surprise 

finalists and Arsenal’s dismal record but it’s also worth pointing out that even in 

a year when three of the four semi-finalists were Arsenal, Chelsea and 

Manchester City, the big boys far from had it their own way. Here’s a list of 90 

minute results when ‘Big Six’ teams took on the rest in 2017/18: 

  

Leicester 2 Liverpool 0 

Tottenham 1 Barnsley 0 

Arsenal 1 Doncaster 0 

Chelsea 5 Nottingham Forest 1 

Man United 4 Burton 1 

West Brom 1 Man City 2 

Arsenal 1 Norwich 1 

Man City 0 Wolves 0 

Swansea 0 Man United 2 

Chelsea 2 Everton 1 

Tottenham 2 West Ham 3 

Arsenal 1 West Ham 0 

Leicester 1 Man City 1 

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Bristol City 2 Man United 1 

Chelsea 2 Bournemouth 1 

Man City 2 Bristol City 1 

Bristol City 2 Man City 3 

  

That’s just three wins by more than one goal from 17 matches, including nine 

matches against lower league opposition. The makings of a handicap strategy 

against the big sides perhaps? 

  

 

 

 

  

  

  

  

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Champions League (plus a Europa League bet) 

  

The crème de la crème of European football will once again do battle in UEFA’s 

premier club competition/cash cow and the great thing about this tournament 

from our point of view is that it’s oh so reliable. 

  

The whole event is designed to aid the big guns and shock results really are few 

and far between. If you’re the type that likes an accumulator then backing 

favourites in the group stages is a pretty decent way to go. Sure, short odds and 

value may seem like unusual bedfellows but it all depends on the contest – if this 

year’s Derby winner was up against a seaside donkey then odds of 2/9 would be 

super value, so why turn your nose up at a similar price when Barcelona 

welcome the champions of Bulgaria to the Nou Camp. 

  

Now granted, last year saw a shock finalist (Liverpool) and a shock semi-finalist 

(Roma, although they needed a second leg miracle against Barcelona to get 

there) but Real Madrid still won the thing. 

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Three To Follow 

  

Manchester City: Odds of 6/1 are a little skinny for my liking but Manchester City 

will be desperate to go far in the Champions League this season and may well 

choose to focus on that rather than domestic matters. Pep’ll just be hoping they 

don’t get Liverpool again! 

  

Liverpool: Will lightning strike twice for the Reds? Personally, I don’t see any 

reason why not. Liverpool’s front three (who all finished as joint second top 

scorers last season) are all still in place and the goalkeeper and central midfield 

areas have received significant upgrades. 

  

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While Klopp may do the opposite of Guardiola and focus primarily on the league, 

nobody will want to draw his Liverpool side, especially if/when they make it out 

of the group stage, and a price of 14/1 looks very fair. 

  

I’m of the opinion that English sides may start to dominate Europe in the next 

few years, as they did in the late 2000’s, and with Real Madrid in transition, Barca 

unconvincing last season, PSG bottle jobs and Bayern not the force of a few 

years ago, this season could be the start of that dominance. 

  

Arsenal (Europa League): With so many imponderables including weakened 

teams, trips to the arse end of nowhere and Champions League teams entering 

the competition after the group stage, there’s little point in dedicating a whole 

section to the Europa League, but I do want to back Arsenal. 

  

As I’ve already mentioned, I expect the Gunners to have a cup season with the 

top four likely to be beyond a completely rejigged football club. Should that be 

the case the Europa League would be the obvious target given that the winners 

now qualify for the Champions League. Furthermore, they have a Europa League 

master in charge – new boss Unai Emery won the competition three years in a 

row with Sevilla between 2013 and 2016. Odds of 9/1 look perfectly reasonable 

and I’m sure they will be shorter once the group stage is over. 

  

Two To Avoid 

  

Paris Saint-Germain: Without going all ‘French surrender’ on you, PSG are 

bottlers. This is the competition they want to win and with all the money in the 

world, it’s the competition they should be winning and yet since that influx of 

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cash they’ve not made so much as a semi-final. Perhaps it’s down to the lack of 

quality opposition in the French league, perhaps it’s down to fielding a bunch of 

mercenaries who are only in it for the cash. Whatever the reason, just don’t back 

them! 

  

Manchester United: Getting knocked out in the last 16 to Sevilla was “nothing 

new” for United according to their own manager, Jose Mourinho, and I’m not 

going to disagree. Their record over the last few years has been as follows: last 

16 (Sevilla), didn’t qualify, group stage (PSV/Wolfsburg/CSKA), didn’t qualify, 

quarters (Bayern Munich), last 16 (Real Madrid, group stage (Benfica/Basel/Cluj). 

  

They’re the same price to win it this year as Europa League holders and two time 

recent finalists Atletico Madrid. Get in the bin. 

  

 

 

  

 

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European Bankers 

  

In this final section of our Best Bets guide we’ve compiled some of the most 

potent ‘banker’ stats from last season. 

  

While past performance is obviously no guarantee of future success, the same 

things do tend to happen time and time again and so if you are one to indulge in 

accumulators or even just lumpy bets at short prices (these CAN sometimes 

offer value remember) then you could do much worse than make a note of these 

7 European Bankers. 

  

1)  Last season Juventus won the Italian league again despite Napoli racking up 

91 points. That’s now seven straight titles for the Old Lady and with Napoli 

under new management and Roma again losing their best player things are 

unlikely to change this season. Granted, that isn’t a stat as such but you 

should again expect them to win the vast majority of their matches, especially 

with Ronaldo cleaning up against the lesser lights. 

  

2)  It’ll come as no surprise to you that PSG are dominant in France but the split 

between their home and away games is interesting. At home last season they 

scored an incredible 70 goals in 19 games – that’s an average of nearly four 

goals scored per match, so they’re well worth backing on the handicap. 

  

 24 

  

3)  Speaking of a strong home record, PSV won all bar two of their home 

matches in the Dutch league last season and the two they didn’t win were 

both draws. Ajax are still the most famous Dutch club by a distance but with 

PSV dominating last season and Feyenoord the season before, it pays to look 

outside Amsterdam for your Netherlands based bankers. 

  

4)  Manchester City had an identical record away from home to at home last 

season - 16 wins, two draws and one defeat. Given you’ll get much better 

odds backing them in away matches, that might be the value call when 

considering them for an acca. Pep is not a man who changes his approach 

when travelling. 

  

5)  Liverpool meanwhile were unbeaten at home last season in both the 

Premier League and Champions League. Get on those draw no bets. 

  

6)  The Portuguese league has established itself as perfect banker material in 

recent years and last season neither Porto or Sporting Lisbon lost a home 

match. That was far from a rare occurrence, so while odds in Portugal may be 

skinny, the results are certainly reliable. 

  

7)  Finally to Spain where there couldn’t be more of a contrast between Atletico 

Madrid and the other two dominant clubs of recent years, Real Madrid and 

Barcelona. Last season Real scored 36 more goals than Atleti yet finished 

three points behind them. Barca and Real on the handicap and Atleti to 

win ‘to nil’ has got to be the call here. 

  

  

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Bonus! Season Acca! 

If you don’t want to risk a lot of funds tied up in ante-post bets but want one bet 

to give you a run for your money all season then this is for you. I’ve put this one 

together to win and I’m hopeful that it will deliver at a decent price. Obviously 

keep stakes well within what you comfortable with if your betting. 

 

Manchester City/Liverpool Dual Forecast (Premier League) @ 2/1 

 

This bet requires the two named teams to finish 1st and 2nd in either order. 

Again I’ve covered the reasoning elsewhere and given I can’t see City out of the 

top two, this bet makes more sense than backing Liverpool to finish in the top 

two at 10/11 

 

Middlesbrough to finish in Top 6 (Championship) @ 11/10 

I’ve covered this in the Championship section. 

 

Burton Albion Top Half Finish (League 1) @ 5/4  

Burton are the biggest price of the three that went down to League One and 

their price is perhaps a little too big. Their days were always going to be 

numbered in the Championship with such little resources but fact remains they 

were competitive. Compare them to Rotherham, who were getting smashed 

every week in the Championship during the 16/17 season and were relegated 

with just 23 pts having conceded 98 goals, yet were able to bounce back up with 

a 4th place finish in League One. Burton have an experienced manager in Nigel 

Clough and largely the same squad that has been competitive, if not quite good 

 26 

  

enough, at Championship level the last two seasons. They opened with defeat 

against Rochdale but dominated the shots on goal with 9 attempts to 2.  

 

Lincoln City to finish in Top 7 (League 2) @ 4/7  

Lincoln are a side I’ve followed since they were promoted the the EFL and they 

have continued to be progressive under Danny Cowley, they can move on from a 

decent return season in the football league last year where they managed not 

only a 7th place finish but also to win the Football League trophy which for me 

means their League performance can be marked up a tad. They’ve done good 

work in the transfer market with John Akinde proven at this level and should be 

able to at least repeat a playoff berth or better. 

 

 

4 fold Acca @ 21.28/1 Skybet 

 

 

 

  

  

  

  

 

 

 27 

  

More to come… 

  

Hopefully you enjoyed this guide and it’ll help you to pick up some decent profit 

from the football in 2018/19. 

  

That’s not all though as throughout the season I’ll also be sending you regular 

messages from Matchdayprofits.com, so do keep an eye out for those. 

  

The bulk of the money-making advice will be shared with members only 

however, and my service is now open to new members for a limited period until 

the start of the season.  

 

Check out my offer here:  

http://matchdayprofits.com/2018-season-offer/ 

Thanks and Good Luck! 

 

Ps. I welcome any comments, questions or feedback at: 

http://matchdayprofits.com/contact/ 

 

 

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