report #2 - future of turkey's northern cyprus depends on russian crimea's support

Mediterranean Report #2

Future of Turkey's Northern Cyprus Depends on Russian Crimea's Support

Sarah NEARY,

Freelance Journalist

May 2015

1 Future of Turkey's Northern Cyprus Depends on Russian Crimea's Support

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May 2015


Future of Turkey's Northern Cyprus Depends on Russian Crimea's Support .. 3

Introduction ...................................................................................................... 3

How Support Can Spell Success ...................................................................... 4

Turkish Stream ................................................................................................. 5

Balance of Power Issues ................................................................................... 6

The Future Remains Unclear ........................................................................... 7

Summary

May 2015


Future of Turkey's Northern Cyprus Depends on Russian Crimea's

Support

Ms. Sarah Neary

For Crimea, it has been a little more than a year since it was annexed, or as it is called by Russia, the reunification of it's land. As Crimea fights to stay the break-away territory in Ukraine, the violence continues in Ukraine. Even though Crimea has become independent from Ukraine and is promising its citizens a better future, it is not the first territory to stand out and make a huge footprint in geopolitics—not by a long shot. Before Crimea, there was and still is the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Introduction

The TRNC, officially established in 1983, is considered to be recognized as a self-declared state by only Turkey. In the eyes of outsiders, the TRNC is seen as Cypriot territory that is under Turkish military occupation. Each break-away territory shows its individuality through certain avenues, such as through the language spoken, currency used, and its flag. Below is a brief overview of each region:

Category Northern Cyprus Crimea

Population 294,906 (2011 data) 1,967,119 (2013 estimate)

Language Spoken Turkish Russian, Ukrainian, Crimean Tatar

Currency Turkish Lira Russian ruble (*Ukrainian hryvnia only until January 1st, 2016)

Flag

May 2015


Northern Cyprus, is a region that has stabilized to an extent but not in terms of its citizens free to travel the world and its economic constraints. Still the northern area of Cyprus that has been noted as a self-proclaimed state by Turkey has no recognition elsewhere, thus making it harder for the nation to progress. As long as Northern Cyprus keeps its status of being a self-declared state, which the majority of people do not

recognize, it could make it legally more difficult for buildings to be put up, foreign companies to set up shop in the region, and for the citizens of the area to expand on what they already have.

How Support Can Spell Success

As Northern Cyprus is always considering to grow, it could seriously look into the goods it does well at exporting, such as citrus products and dairy items. Heavy amounts of trading take place between Northern Cyprus and Turkey mainly because Turkey is it is central support system.

Not too far away, is Crimea, whose agricultural industry is very strong. The annexed area is able to produce vegetables and grain, as well as has an established poultry industry. Due to the fact that both areas are banned from participating in normal exports and can only export to their firm support (that being Turkey for Northern Cyprus and Russia for Crimea) –an export agreement between the two does not look like a bad proposition.

Crimea would be able to get an ample amount of citrus and dairy products from Northern Cyprus while vegetables, grain, and poultry could be shipped off to Northern Cyprus from the peninsula of Crimea. Diversifying their export strategy could help each side get the most of what they need and establish solid growth for both regions.

Not only can exporting and importing products from each region benefit Northern Cyprus and Crimea, it sends the global community a strong message. Executing this

Photo: Wikimedia.org

May 2015


strategy could also make headlines—attracting desirable attention for the TRNC and Crimea.

However, before exporting, importing, or any strategic process would start between the two—Crimea's situation would have to calm down. Surrounding Crimea is and will always be Ukraine. The newly annexed territory would most likely need to wait until the violence comes to a complete halt around the region and order is restored before it starts signing any deals with outside nations. Already though, it is safe to say that businessmen in China are ready and willing to invest in the peninsula, at least according to Russian newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta. If China's deal turns out well in the region, this may just push other wealthy investors to bring business to Crimea.

Northern Cyprus might just be waiting for the right time to hop on board with this idea, however as said before—it could simply be a matter of the region surrounding Crimea coming to a calm before Northern Cyprus decides on anything concrete.

Turkish Stream

Once the South Stream project was thrown out the window by Russia, in came the Turkish Stream. This proposed idea, officially entitled the Turkish Stream was put on the table in December of 2014, with high hopes of the multi-billion dollar project working. Even though Moscow and Ankara have yet to work out the finer details, such as the finances or technicalities connected to the Turkish Stream—the high chance of the deal being made could mean bigger dreams for Northern Cyprus.

Should Turkey make a lucrative amount off of this project in particular, it could pump a lot of money into Northern Cyprus, which would in the end benefit their

Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Photo: Wikimedia.org

May 2015


economy and overall infrastructure. To dig in a little bit deeper, it can be understood why Northern Cyprus has lasted so long and most likely, Crimea will too stay in its current state for years to come—they are both supported by strong nations, which firmly believe in their ideology, along with their past, present, and future decisions. As long as these two countries continue to exude

these strengths, Northern Cyprus and Crimea will stand just as strong.

Balance of Power Issues

Russian-annexed Crimea has reached 13.8 percent inflation between January and March of this year, according to the proclaimed Minister of Industrial Policy, Andriy Skrynnyk of the peninsula. The minister claimed that the negative matter is due to the outflow of goods from the peninsula to Russia's regions, which prices are at a higher amount. "This issue will have to be addressed with the introduction of a mechanism intended to control this flow," assured Skrynnyk assured, as stated by freshplaza.com—a company who keeps track of global agriculture news. As Crimea is still working out the finer details of how it is to operate independently, Northern Cyprus is in the news for announcing just how independent it wants to become.

In this year's April 26 election in Northern Cyrpus, Mustafa Akıncı became the new presdient of the TRNC. The newly elected Mr. Akıncı has already caused commotion by stating during his victory speech that Turkey and TRNC's relationship should be viewed as a sibling relationship and not of one as motherland and child. Turkey's president did not take kindly to such statement. “We paid a price for Northern Cyprus. We gave martyrs and we continue to pay a price. For Turkey, Northern Cyprus is our child. We will continue to look at it the way a mother looks at her child,” Turkey's President Erdoğan said, as stated by JTW news agency. The TRNC struggles to become a grown-up country, especially in the eyes of Turkey, but keeps up hope that it can soon become a prosperous self-sufficient region.

Cyrpus Mail reported that the new TRNC president and Greek Cyprus' official Nicos Anastasiadis will come together to discuss the reunification of the island. There is a renewed sense of hope for the reunification process according to Anastasiadis since the new president of the TRNC took power.

Russian and Turkish Flags

Photo: naturalgaseurope.com

Northen Cyprus Flag alongside Turkish Flag Photo: Sarah Neary

May 2015


It remains clear that the two regions: Crimea and the TRNC are looking for viable solutions to keep their territory stable, self-sufficient, and progressive in order to show its citizens that their land is an ever-progressing area, filled with opportunities for the future. However, the continuing theme is as follows: as long as their motherland Russia to Crimea and Turkey to the TRNC put their finances on the table, the majority of decision making will not be up to the regions, but either up to their respective motherland or heavily influenced by their motherland's political and financial situations.

The Future Remains Unclear

Unfortunately, the future of Northern Cyprus does not lay in the hands of their own territories—major decisions fall into the hands of their stable support systems—Turkey and Russia respectively. Should any policy change occur in either country, which harshly effects the financial situation of either nation, it will most certainly be felt by Northern Cyprus and Crimea. Funding for projects, buildings, and anything major will most likely be with assistance from the very country who helped it stay the nation they acknowledge themselves to be.

Though, they are continuing to accomplish many matters, which can be seen in the chart below:

Accomplishments of Northern Cyprus Accomplishments of Crimea

Recognized as a single member of the European Pocket Billard Federation, not part of Cyprus.

After January1st 2016, the Crimean peninsula will only be circulating/using one currency—the Russian ruble. Currently, dual currencies are in use.

Recognized as a single member of the European Countries Biologists Association, not part of Cyprus.

Four countries which include: Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic have resisted the European Commission’s decision to deny Schengen visas to Crimean residents of Crimea who now possess a Russian passport.

Listed as an observer of the Organisational of Islamic Cooperation as Turkish Cypriot State since 1979.

Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia among others recognize Crimean referendum as legitimate

May 2015


Northern Cyprus passports. They can legally travel to Australia, Pakistan, France,Turkey, the United States and the United Kingdom, according to the Northern Cypriot government

National Geographic mapmakers mark Crimea as part of Russia.

Northern Cyprus National Football Team. They have participated in 5 international tournaments and won 4 of them.

Attracting investors in the region to build infrastructure, develop the tourism industry, and increase the agriculture in the region.

The question that both Northern Cyprus and Crimea and trying to accurately find the answer to is what comes after non-recognition or semi-recognition. For the time being, it is a struggle to gain access to the many resources and organizations recognized countries enjoy. Even though progress may seem slow, each region is still progressing in the right direction, to become the nation they truly believe they have always been.

May 2015


Sarah Neary. Master in Business Administration with a Concentration in Global Management at Ashford University, Clinton, IA. She was Editor/Proofreader for Expo 2020 Special Project in Moscow. Now, she is Style Editor and Journalist for the Voice of Russia.

Ed. Mediterranean Affairs®.

www.mediterraneanaffairs.com

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report #2 - future of turkey's northern cyprus depends on russian crimea's support

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