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TRANSCRIPT
September 2019
Nicky Shiels, Metals Strategist
Renewed risks driving a new regime: outlook for base & precious metals
2
Contents
Macro-Economic Backdrop Pages 3-6
2019 and the macro backdrop: a tale of two halves Pg. 4
Summer 2019: What happened – hot & cold wars emerged Pg. 5
Trade & the Fed: Copper and Gold are financialized proxies Pg. 6
Precious Metals Outlook Pages 7-16
Gold technicals – respected Pg. 8
Short-term outlook: Fed rate regime shift, trade & geopolitics Pg. 9
Medium term outlook: Bond bubbles, deficits, negative rates & asset dislocations Pg. 10-12
Known Gold flows: Investors vs Central Banks & physical Pg. 13
Short & Long-term Gold Outlook: factors for an upside repricing Pg. 14
Silver Outlook: fundamentally oversupplied, but some upside potential Pg. 15-16
Copper Outlook Pages 17-27
The short-term outlook & drivers: macros usually trumps micro Pg. 18-20
Short-term fundamentals: frustration to supply-side dynamics Pg. 21-22
Longerterm fundamentals: Supply outlook and project pipeline Pg. 23-24
Contending with cycles Pg. 25
Short-term Price Outlook: macro destabilized copper, it will take macro to reprice Pg. 26
Appendix Pages 27-33
Summary table: bullish vs bearish drivers for Gold & Silver Pg. 28
Summary table: short & long-term bullish vs bearish drivers for Copper Pg. 29
Full Global Copper Supply-Demand Table , 2009-2023 Pg. 30
Longer-term Copper Demand – “E-Copper” in a Green World Pg. 31
List of Macro Uncertainties Pg. 32
Commodities as an asset class: performance when needed Pg. 33
Scotiabanks Commodity Group: Product & Capabilities Offering Pg. 34
2019 and the macro backdrop
4
• 1H 2019:
• Low volatility, complacent regime
• Sustained Fed pause after the January FOMC
• Risk assets trend
• Summer 2019 -- macro inflection point
• Trade, geopolitics & Fed change course marking several
turning points
• Outsized repricings in global bonds, commodities &
some equities (but not the US$)
• 2H 2019:
• Higher volatility, anxious regime
• Havens continue to trend
2019 and the Macro Backdrop: A tale of two halves
4%
+17%
-22 -17 -12 -7 -2 3 8 13 18 23 28
US 3m T-bills
DXY
Commodities
US Gov Bonds
EM Equities
Industrial Metals
US I.G Corp Bonds
US H.Y Corp Bonds
EM Gov Bonds ($ den)
Energy
DM Equities (ex-US)
Precious Metals
US Equities
%
Macro assets performances, then (2018) vs now (2019)
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy, Bloomberg, ICE BofA ML Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy, Bloomberg, ICE BofA ML
YTD 2019
2018
5
Q2’19 & Q3’19 marked several major turning points in trade, geopolitics/politics & monetary policy :
TRADE TENSIONS May 2019: last minute collapse of US/China trade deal; post-FOMC tariffs
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS June 2019: Iran / North Korea / Middle Eastern tensions, HK protests, Saudi Oil attack
CURRENCY WAR July/Aug 2019: yuan breach of 7-threshold marks a new front; threat of FX intervention
MONETARY POLICY WAR Aug 2019: the ‘first responders’ to the Fed cut by more than expected; alternative monetary policy tool explored given limits
Summer 2019: What happened - Hot & cold wars emerged
6
Trade & the Fed: Copper and Gold become financialized proxies
• Key “haven/cyclical “commodity ratios spiked in the summer 2019 to reflect renewed macro fear and the potential impact of trade on growth
• Gold/Copper ratio pricing in recessionary Fed cuts (of further ~200bps), which isn't occurring. Divergence is due
to gold premium pricing in a Fed policy mistake together with threat of further trade/geopolitics, • Copper (and now Gold) being financialized to depict US/China trade war AND the global fight of nationalism vs
globalism
• However, the two superpowers still far apart on core structural issues with dissimilar time horizons
Moral Hazard problem: The feedback loop between Fed policy and trade protectionism
Source: Scotia Economics
Trump’s Protectionism
Weak Congress
Damaged Growth
Fed Easing
Weakened Institutions
Precious metals outlook
8
Short-Term Precious Outlook – technically respected
DESPITE a resiliently strong & compressed US$, Gold makes a statement breakout • Gold hits record highs in 73 currencies indicating a global macro regime shift • Gold’s price in the majors (AUD, CAD, JPY, GBP, EUR) at peak, indicating a DM currency war against fiat • Technical Gold break aligns with shift in Fed policy entering new bull market
9
Gold is a rate cut hedge and more….
• Gold is very dependent on the pace of Fed easing
cycle
• Pricing not only a hedge to a ~2 Fed cuts within 6
months, but also incorporates the threat of core
“fear” (trade, political and geopolitical) drivers re-
emerging
• Given current real rates & US$, Golds “fear
premium” is ~$180. Peak “fear premium” was $700
(in 2011)
• (Geo) political risk is still underpriced into 2020
Short-Term Precious Outlook: Fed rate regime shift & more…
Real US 10
Yields*DXY
Nominal
Yields
10year monthly Correlation with Gold -0.71 -0.45 -0.43
Gold with current real yields $ 1,390
Gold with current DXY $ 1,208
Weights 0.61 # 0.39
Gold with DXY/10yr weighted (40% DXY,
60% real) $ 1,317
Fear premium* $ 182
Current Gold price 1,499$
*10yr US Treasuries - 10yr Breakevens
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy
2009 - 2019 (current)
10
Easy monetary policies and recession fears driving a bond bubble
• 70% of all developed market debt is trading with real negative yields with the remaining 30% close to or below 1%
• The pool of negatively yielding debt is ~$14tn (down from $17tn), almost double that of above ground Gold stocks.
• Gold becomes a yielding asset ‘relative’ to negative yielding bonds; alternative high quality, liquid assets are attractive as a
portfolio diversifier.
• Without sustained growth, low and falling global yields are expected; risk of negative yields spreading to the U.S. and other DM
countries
Medium-Term Precious Outlook: Bond bubbles & negative rates
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
$1,450
$1,500
$1,550
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19
$ t
n
Negative yielding global debt vs Gold
Amount ofnegativeyieldingGlobal Debt,$tn (LHS,$tn)
Gold price(RHS)
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy, Bloomberg
11
Medium-Term Precious Outlook: Deficits & debt
The world is more indebted today than before the GFC amid a government and corporate borrowing binge
• Total debt in China already exceeds that of the U.S. and has more than quadrupled since 2007
• U.S. budget deficit projected to surpass the $1tn mark in 2019 (highest apart from the few post GFC years) - on a dangerous
fiscal path by missing a valuable opportunity to start managing debt during a time of growth and high employment
• Ray Dalio (July, 2019): “There will have to be some combination of large deficits that are monetized, currency depreciations,
and large tax increases, and these circumstances will likely increase the conflicts between the capitalist haves and the socialist
have-nots”
12
With late cycle getting long, a strong disconnect between havens and risk assets
• US Treasury yields (and the yield curve) pricing in an imminent recession
• US equities pricing in easier monetary policy, relative US outperformance & reflation
• Commodities remains relatively underpriced vs risk metrics: real assets are under owned vs paper (equities) assets
• Without sustained growth, low and falling global yields are expected
• US yields are (even now) still too high vs the ROW; spread differential explains US$ strength
Medium-Term Precious Outlook: Overbought havens or equities?
13
Western investors & CBs buying at strongest pace in years, while Asia is dehoarding
• Strong physical selling from Asian Gold hubs
• New Central Banks – especially EM CBs - looking to “de-dollarize / re-commodidize”
• Investors turned net bullish in 2019 *; sentiment improving from underweight base
• Without equity market volatility and an unwind of the bull run, the larger equity / generalist investor remains underweight
Gold (holdings only 0.60% of SPX market cap, vs peak of >1.6%)
Known Gold Flows: who is behind the repricing, who is not?
14
Gold Outperformance Only 2/4 drivers “on”
1. Sustained equity market volatility ()
2. A negative U.S. Dollar catalyst (-)
3. Lower yields for longer ()
4. A dovish Fed ()
() Achieved. (-) Undecided; TBD. (x) Not achieved
Short-term Gold outlook:
• $1,450 is the new hard floor; +-$1500 is its comfort handle;
$1600 soft ceiling into 2H’2019.
• Upside Risk ($1500-1700): increasingly dependent on 1) U.S.
politics/geopolitics and trade, 2) Fed outlook, 3) the US$.
• Key downside risk (~$1400): reflation risk – improved US data
and/or trade deal leading to the end of the “mid-cycle Fed
adjustment”
Long & Short-term Gold Outlook: Factors required for an upside pricing
Longer-term Gold outlook:
• Gold has entered new bull market $1,350 is the new hard
floor into the next recession/global slowdown
• Old peak ($1900) dependent on US elections & ability for CB
to control equity market volatility, given that the generalist
investor is underinvested
• Comfort zone is $1450-1650 as swelling twin deficits and US
politics expected to structurally weaken the appeal of the US$,
while real/hard assets increasingly become attractive as a
source to hedge volatile paper assets (equities)
15
Soft fundamentals but attractive as a cheap high beta Gold proxy
• Gold/Silver ratio to remain in structural uptrend as macro markets navigate a delicate late cycle era
• The large physical overhang, with exchange inventories at record highs, ensures Silver wont return to its 'wildcat' high-volatility era seen
during 2009-2012
• But relatively underweight ownership vs historical measures (on AUM basis) and as a % of portfolios
Short-Term Silver Outlook: Fundamentally Oversupplied
16
4 key factors required for upside in the industrial precious metals
PGMs & Silver: A tactical rally requires
1. Easing of trade tensions enough to boost Chinese confidence and deter paper shorts ()
2. A weaker U.S. Dollar (-)
3. Collectively dovish CBs (especially PBOC), giving EM assets a chance to outperform & putting recession fears on hold (-)
4. Bottoming out in global manufacturing sectors ()
Short-term Silver outlook:
• The new fairer & more “aligned” range (vs Gold
above $1450) is $17-19/oz, given a world of growing
negative interest rates, strong technical momentum
and relatively under-owned precious positioning
• Recent Silver repricing confirms that Silver is still a
precious metal, and can play a role as a currency
hedge or quality asset, as well as provide relatively
cheap optionality on further Gold upside
• The large physical overhang, ensures Silver
outperformance (vs Gold) remains short-lived.
Short-Term Silver Outlook: Upside Factors & Price Outlook
Outlook for Copper
18
Escalating trade war
• A new & unpredictable multi-front trade war “Economic WWIII”
• More tariffs now, than before the summer (~$550 bn worth of planned & imposed tariffs on China, vs $290bn before summer)
• Sentiment, as depicted by Copper positioning, has soured – investors either short or sidelined & correlated to swings in trade headlines/rhetoric
• Peak of 1.3m mt worth of bearish bets or 5x Scotias 2019 deficit figure
Short-term Outlook: Macro (usually) always trumps micros
Global manufacturing mini-recession
• Not just about sentiment & financial flows impact from trade war
• Collective rollover in manufacturing PMIs for 18 months
• The US is now (barely) holding the ROW up. But China & Eurozone PMIs show early signs of bottoming out
350,000
550,000
750,000
950,000
1,150,000
1,350,000
1,550,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
"Trade War" search terms vs Copper shorts
GoogleTrend hits"trade war"*(LHS)
Gross COT/Paper HGShorts, mt(RHS)
* Google Trend interest over time represent numbers where worldwide search interest is relative to the highest point on the chart. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular.
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy, Bloomberg, CFTC Commitment of traders
* Google Trend interest over time represent numbers where worldwide search interest is relative to the highest point on the chart. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular.
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy, Bloomberg, CFTC Commitment of traders
19
Short-term Outlook: The CNH and EMFX implications for Copper
New $5800 Copper ceiling, but dips shallower
• Weakening of the yuan through sacrosanct 7 per US$ was/is a game changer for base metals
• A weaker yuan sours sentiment, lowers Chinas purchasing power for all goods, provides negative tailwinds for EM assets/markets
• However:
• Major negative trade headlines (#1-3) resulted in shallower dips; diminishing effect of impact on traditional trade war proxies (yuan, copper)
• Potential US currency intervention (targeting the yuan), is an upside risk for Copper
1. US/China trade dispute begins. 2. US/China trade deal collapses 3. US levies (new) tariffs on China after FOMC; China devalues its currency through 7 per-US$
Base Metals more sensitive to EM growth
• Softer EM growth profiles, weaker currencies
• Relative EM Equities underperformance weighing on industrial metals pricing
• Correlation between Base metals Index & EM/DM equities proxy is ~0.60
20
Short-term Outlook: Global CB easing should allay the worst of fears
Global CB easing should allay the worst of fears (Copper sub $5000) & support PMIs
• Synchronized easing should support Global Manufacturing sector /PMIs
• Fed is likely to ease in the next 6 months – preemptively early due to trade, not late and sorry..
• Chinese macro demand data is still overall supportive Copper demand, with solid growth in machinery and household appliances offsetting weak auto and investment grid spending
21
Short-term Fundamentals: “Frustration” amidst missed opportunities
Trade war and demand impact hasn’t given supply story, deficits & low inventories a chance to matter
• Negative supply growth in 2019
• Codelco strikes, Zambia nationalization fears, Latam weather outages etc had no sustainable effect on pricing
• 1H’2019 disruptions have totaled ~480K mt; on annualized basis, higher vs 2018 but still overall low vs historical disruption allowance of 5.5%
• Global inventories building from cyclical lows, signaling weaker demand – a missed opportunity
2019 expected to be the 2nd year of negative supply growth in 3 years
22
Short-term fundamentals: “Frustration”
Trade war and demand impact hasn’t given supply story, deficits & low inventories a chance to matter
• Short-term balance forecast 2019-2021 = average net deficits, 173k mt, even despite a weaker demand outlook
23
The Longer-term Fundamentals: Supply outlook and project pipeline
Grade declines, water constraints, rising input
costs, and a scarcity of high-quality/high grade
development opportunities continue to
constrain the industry’s ability to meet growing
demand.
Average grades to continue falling to 0.53% by
2030 (from 0.63 in 2018) but rate of declines is
slowing
Copper capex has halved since 2013 (from
$25bn to $13bn)
While the pipeline appears well populated,
many possible projects have been
“development opportunities” for a while; now a
dearth of probable projects
Market requires ~4m mt/pa copper by 2028
from ‘Possible’ projects
These next gen projects will require higher
capex and will likely operate at higher costs
and/or carry greater political risk
20
18, 0
.63
20
30
, 0.5
8
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
198
0
198
3
198
6
198
9
199
2
199
5
199
8
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
Co
pp
er
gra
de
, Cu
%
Copper grades: structurally in decline, but
rate of declines expected to slow
Average
Grade
(Weight by
Ore
Processed)
*Forecasts include, base case and probable projects Source: Wood Mackenzie
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
HG
Cu
pri
ce, $
/lb
s
Ca
pe
x in
US
D b
illi
on
s
Mining Expansion Capex for Copper
Copper Capex
Copper
Source: Scotia GBM Metals & Mining Equity Research, Wood Mackenzie
24
The Longer-term Fundamentals: Supply outlook and project pipeline
Supply growth profile: • Very strong supply growth (+5.1% before
disruptions) in 2020 driven by ramp-ups at Cobre Panama, Escondida, and Grasberg, but likely represents peak supply growth
• Strong but declining primary supply growth of 2.9%, 2.7%, and 1.9% in 2021-2023
• Supply growth to plunge in 2024-25 driven by
grade declines and depletions which more than offsets limited new project growth
• Current weak price environment, if it continues, likely to delay many projects from moving forward
• “We’re not investing in new projects until we have more clarity.” Richard Adkerson April 2019
• “There won’t be copper available long term if prices continue like this. Current prices are not high enough for mining companies across the world to make large investments.” Roberto Ecclefield in an interview at the annual Copper Club dinner, June 2019
25
The Longer term Fundamentals: cycles & large underinvestment
Capex expansion by commodity vs Commodity Price Index, 2009 - 2021
Source: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie, Scotiabank Equities Metals & Mining estimates
• Current commodity capex 1/5th of peak
• Peak commodity capex was $100bn (2012),
dwindled to $20bn in 2019, as 2012-2016 bear market resulted in large underinvestment by the capital-constrained mining sector
• Copper net deficit position over the next few years
should drive upside price pressures & thus reinvestment, within this capex cycle. But if current weak price environment, continues, likely to delay many projects from moving forward
• Copper/base demand also needs to contend with
very late business cycle, and commodities broadly in a supercycle downswing that peaked in 2011
Estimated Fundamental Commodity Positioning Relative to Cycle Peak/Trough
26
A tactical base metals rally (within a structural decline that’s nearing the bottom) requires:
1. Easing of trade tensions enough to boost Chinese confidence and deter paper shorts ()
2. A weaker U.S. Dollar (-)
3. Collectively dovish global CBs (), especially the PBOC, giving EM assets a chance to outperform & putting recession fears on hold ()
4. Bottoming out in global manufacturing sectors ()
() Achieved. (-) Undecided; TBD. (x) Not achieved
Copper & base metals short-term outlook
Short-term Copper outlook (Scotia Strategy): 2H’19 and 2020
• New comfort range $5700-$5900: due to trade escalation, renewed tariffs threatening a ‘manufacturing recession’ and
Rmb 7 per US$ the new macro/currency floor
• Upside risk ($6000): Reflation in 2H’19 (US/China trade deal), Chinese demand rebound, easier monetary & fiscal
policies), speculative short covering
• Downside risk ($5300): continued demand destruction from trade, tendency for market to not self-regulate given bullish
forecasts and expected deficits, rising inventories
Long-term Copper Outlook (Scotia Research) to be released mid October 2019.
macro destabilized copper, it will take macro to reprice
Appendix
28
Current Bullish vs Bearish Drivers for Gold & Silver
Tailwinds Neutral Headwinds
Feds reaction function shifts, pre-emptively cutting
rates due to trade/geopolitical risks & slower growth.
Likely global central bank policies follow suit
A stubbornly perky US$. Outlook on whether the $
extends into cyclical weakness is mixed, given its
reserve currency status & historical resilience
Lack of sustained macro fear/equity volatility
(VIX <25) given the inbred resilience of US equities
to bounce.
Geopolitics: an unpredictable & escalating multi-
front trade/cold war. Outlook increasingly uncertain
with formal US/China trade deal unlikely before US
2020 elections
Higher pace of Central Bank gold buying,
diversifying against fiat and US$ in 1H'19; risk of CB
demand slowing due to significantly higher prices in
2H'19
Muted physical support from India & China as
higher prices in local terms defer purchases; XAUINR
near record highs & XAUCNH at 6 year highs
deterring jewelry consumption
Expanding pool of negative yielding debt securities &
lower for longer global bond yields; talk of the
threat of negative rates in the US in the medium term
Positioning and sentiment flipped from peak
bearish (2018) to bullish; while fast money (COT)
own peak holdings, the generalist investor is largely
underweight
Large dishoarding from traditional physical Gold
countries given price surge
Fiat currencies politicized with markets in a cold
currency war; growing risk of US currency
intervention to weaken the $ as yuan devalues
through 7 per-US$
Gold Producer consolidation / M&A driving "peak
gold" supply calls; (bullish sentiment theme in the
short-term; negligent in the longer-term)
Higher yielding Gold ‘detractors’ like alternative
currencies (Bitcoin) or assets compete for similar
flows, especially in EM markets where currencies are
depreciating
Growing talk around alternative CB tools (MMT,
QE+, negative interest rates globally) more relevant
as rate cuts arrive earlier
2H reflation risk or fear on US data outperformance
and / or trade ceasefire promoting a "one-&-done"
Fed cut
The independence of CBs increasingly under
threat from populist governments; skepticism growing
around power of CBs s to remove volatility & pump
up asset prices amidst trade tensions
Unsustainable US debt/fiscal path with swelling twin
deficits; Structural theme, and one which has taken a
backseat to trade/politics
A pickup in socialist rhetoric and policies with social
pendulum swinging left in US (democtatic nominees)
and abroad
29
Current Bullish vs Bearish Drivers for Copper
Tailwinds Neutral Headwinds
2H reflation risk on US data outperformance
and / or trade ceasefire promoting a "one-&-
done" Fed cut
Exchange inventories running just below 10
year average; LME + SHFE + CME hold 520k mt
Collective rollover in Global Manufacturing
sector
Extreme negative sentiment reflected in outsized
short paper positioning
The Fed pre-emptively cuts rates due to
trade/geopolitical risks & slower growth. Likely
global central bank policies follow suit which
should support manufacturing PMIs
An unpredictable & escalating multi-front
trade/economic war. Outlook increasingly
uncertain with formal US/China trade deal
unlikely before US 2020 elections
Chinese stimulus: fiscal response (recent
increase in project approvals and special bond
issuance by local gov should translate into more
infrastructure spending in near term); monetary
policy (the loan prime rate to be guided lower;
potential cut in RRR)
Chinese macro demand data still overall
supportive (auto sector remains weak and
investment in the power grid running behind
budget but offset by solid growth in machinery
and household appliances)
A stubbornly perky US$ and weak EM/FX &
yuan. Outlook on whether the $ extends into
cyclical weakness is mixed, given its reserve
currency status & historical resilience
Expected negative supply growth in 2019 (the
second year in the past 3 years)
Scrap supply and aluminum substitution are
constraints to upside Copper pricing
Fundamental balances shifting from period of
surpluses to deficits, as highlighted by large
downward trend in TCRCs indicating a
structurally tightening path
Late business cycle, late supercommodity
cycle, provide structural headwinds
The decarbonisation of stationary power (wind
technology) and electrification of transport
(Electric Vehicles) should progress.
Emerging Asia (China, India, ASEAN), China’s
Belt and Road initiative, population growth,
rising living standards and the continuation of
urbanization to drive demand are opportunities
for Cu demand growth
Grade declines, rising input costs and a
scarcity of high-quality future developments
should constrain the ability to meet growing
demand at low cost and with limited political risk
<<
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LO
NG
ER
-TE
RM
---
- S
HO
RT
-TE
RM
---
->>
<<
----
LO
NG
ER
-TE
RM
---
- S
HO
RT
-TE
RM
---
->>
Source: Scotiabank Commodities Strategy
30
Global Copper Supply-Demand Balance
GLOBAL COPPER SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE(kt Cu)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
GROSS TOTAL MINE PRODUCTION 15,892 16,051 16,088 16,661 18,034 18,476 19,253 20,238 20,138 20,835 21,118 22,195 22,846 23,466 23,903
LESS: DISRUPTION ALLOWANCE (317) (999) (1142) (1291) (1315)
NET TOTAL MINE PRODUCTION 15,892 16,051 16,088 16,661 18,034 18,476 19,253 20,238 20,138 20,835 20,802 21,196 21,704 22,176 22,589
Mined Cu production growth % 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 3.6% 8.2% 2.5% 4.2% 5.1% -0.5% 3.5% -0.2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9%
REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION 18,275 18,943 19,720 20,150 20,816 21,758 22,020 22,733 22,992 23,476 23,460 23,978 24,526 25,068 25,560
Refined Cu production growth % 0.1% 3.7% 4.1% 2.2% 3.3% 4.5% 1.2% 3.2% 1.1% 2.1% -0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0%
CONSUMPTION 17,354 19,195 19,596 19,563 20,705 21,607 21,909 22,554 23,015 23,513 23,738 24,144 24,600 25,085 25,574
Global Cu consumption growth % -3.8% 10.6% 2.1% -0.2% 5.8% 4.4% 1.4% 2.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
NET SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) 921 (252) 124 587 111 151 111 179 (23) (37) (278) (167) (74) (17) (14)
Total exchange inventories (LME/SHFE/CMX/Bonded) 691 568 795 1,339 1,007 845 872 1,024 993 702 424 258 183 166 153
Days of forward consumption 15 11 15 25 18 14 15 17 16 11 7 4 3 2 2
Total inventories (exchange + non-exchange) 3,499 3,297 3,427 4,014 4,124 4,275 4,385 4,565 4,541 4,504 4,226 4,059 3,985 3,968 3,955
Days of forward consumption 74 63 64 75 73 72 73 74 72 70 65 61 59 58 56
LME spot price (USD/lb) $2.32 $3.42 $4.00 $3.61 $3.33 $3.12 $2.50 $2.21 $2.80 $2.96 $2.80 $3.00 $3.25 $3.50 $3.50
Production Disruption Allowance % 1.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 5.5%
Total Scrap 3,368 4,268 4,609 4,895 4,620 4,525 4,399 4,439 4,574 4,149 4,390 4,551 4,652 4,783 4,913
Scrap as a % Consumption 19.4% 22.2% 23.5% 25.0% 22.3% 20.9% 20.1% 19.7% 19.9% 17.6% 18.5% 18.9% 18.9% 19.1% 19.2%
Consumption Growth by Region %
China 24.3% 10.8% 9.4% 5.3% 11.7% 7.3% 3.5% 4.8% 3.5% 5.5% 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0%
Rest of Asia (Ex China) -12.2% 7.8% -6.8% -3.3% 0.5% 4.3% 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% -3.7% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.7% 2.8%
Europe -20.5% 12.0% 1.2% -8.7% 1.4% 0.9% -4.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
North America -18.7% 7.0% -0.1% 0.4% 2.1% -1.7% 2.4% 0.7% -0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6%
Latin America -14.3% 21.0% -5.0% 2.8% 3.6% -0.5% -5.4% -4.9% -1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Rest of world -0.2% 12.3% -1.2% -0.5% 2.1% 5.7% 4.2% 1.8% -0.3% -0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Consumption Mix by Country/Region:
China 37.5% 37.5% 40.2% 42.4% 44.8% 46.0% 47.0% 47.9% 48.6% 50.2% 50.2% 50.4% 50.6% 50.7% 50.7%
Rest of Asia (Ex China) 20.4% 19.9% 18.1% 17.6% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.8% 16.9% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2%
Europe 20.6% 20.9% 20.7% 18.9% 18.1% 17.5% 16.5% 16.1% 15.9% 15.6% 15.5% 15.4% 15.3% 15.1% 15.0%
North America 10.3% 9.9% 9.7% 9.8% 9.4% 8.9% 9.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3%
Latin America 4.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Rest of world 6.9% 7.0% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3%
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Scotiabank estimates
Note: last updated July 2019
31
Outlook for Cumulative EV Growth:
Approximately 2mn passenger EVs were sold globally in 2018, an increase of 1.1mn from 2017.
Total annual EV sales are forecast to account for 57% of sales in 2040.
Electric vehicles contain between 4 and 10 times as much copper as conventional vehicles.
By 2035, demand for copper in charging and distribution upgrades are estimated to reach between 1.2m – 1.7m mt.
Copper is also required for charge ports. Currently, the amount of charge points will need to increase by more than 44 times by
2025.
Longer-term Copper Demand – “E-Copper” in a Green World
Copper Usage by Vehicle Type Metals Usage and Composition by Part type
32
• 3 known core macro uncertainties:
– Shaky Banks in Europe
– Debt mountain in China
– Corporate Leverage in the U.S
• Potential lesser known macro uncertainties:
– Global growth falters further ()
– US$ or liquidity shortage ()
– A Central Bank policy mistake
– Escalating geopolitical or trade tensions ()
– Official currency intervention
– Credit event
– A dollar-yuan break through 7-handle ()
– 2020 U.S. election race
– Threat of a US debt default
A list of macro uncertainties
WSJ: “Behind the broad, swift (stock) market slide of 2018 is an underlying new reality: roughly 85% of all trading is on autopilot – controlled by machines, models or passive investing formulas, creating an unprecedented trading heard that moves in unison and is blazingly fast” (Dec, 2018)
“We have probably the riskiest credit market that we have ever had. We see it in the buildup in corporate leverage, the decline in credit quality, and declining underwriting standards — all this late-cycle credit behavior we began to see in 2005 and 2006.” Scott Mather, CIO of U.S. core strategies at Pimco.
“[Democratic socialism] puts the word democratic in front of the word socialism, but you know, socialism is not a very good way of building wealth, as shown by... hundreds of years of history, most recently down in Venezuela. That's all you have to look at” Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital
“It is also a good time to ask what will be the next-best currency or storehold of wealth to have when most reserve currency central bankers want to devalue their currencies in a fiat currency system” Ray Dalio, Founder Bridgewater Associates
Potential catalysts for Gold to reprice above $1,600:
33
Commodities as an asset class: Perform When Needed the Most
*Average returns since 2000 Source: Scotiabank, Bloomberg
• Average monthly returns during worst 10% of observations and the corresponding commodity returns
• Large divergence between Commodities & Equities
34
Commodity Investments: Our product & capabilities offerings
Metals
Scotiabank is one of the world’s top bullion dealers in precious and base metals trading,
financing, hedging, and physicals metals distribution. We operate bullion vaults in New
York and Toronto.
We are one of the largest participants on the CME/COMEX, an LBMA market maker,
and an LME Category 2 member.
We offer customized metal Index solutions capabilities and solutions.
Services Offered:
Storage & Transportation
OTC Swaps, Forwards & Options
Customized Index Solutions
Precious Metals:
Gold (Au)
Silver (Ag)
Platinum (Pt)
Palladium (Pd)
Rhodium (Rh)
Commodity Index Alpha generating strategies look to exploit the following risk premia
Value: capture value by investing in commodities that are discounted to fundamentals
Curve / Carry: capture dislocations in futures prices or roll returns by taking a long position in a farther dated contract
Trend / Momentum: capture value based on technical indicators based on trend signals
Liquidity / Congestion: capture value by modifying the futures roll window to avoid congestion experienced during the standard benchmark roll
Volatility: capture the premium between implied and realized volatility in option markets
Base Metals:
Aluminum (Al)
Copper (Cu)
Zinc (Zn)
Nickel (Ni)
Tin (Sn)
Iron Ore (Fe)
Lead (Pb)
Energy
Scotiabank has more than 150 years of Corporate and Investment Banking
experience in the Oil and Gas Upstream, Midstream, Refining, Specialty
Chemicals, Oilfields, Pipelines, Power and Utilities, and Mining sectors.
Strong presence in Canadian, US, LatAm, European and Asian Markets allows
us to provide a global perspective and unique insights.
Crude & Refined Products:
WTI Crude Oil
ICE Brent
Gasoline
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Bunker Fuel
Natural Gas:
NYMEX Henry Hub
Houston Ship Channel
Tetco STX
Many other basis & locations
Services Offered:
OTC Swaps & Options
Customized Index Solutions
Locations:
Premier vaults in Toronto
and NYC
Access to vaults globally
35
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