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1 © OECD/IEA 2018
IEA
Renewable Grid Integration AssessmentOverview of Thailand Case study
Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Energy Analyst – System Integration of Renewables
Grid integration of variable renewable energy, ACEF
Asia Clean Energy Forum 2018, Manila, 5 June 2018
2 © OECD/IEA 2018
IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance
• Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA
- Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme
- Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment
- Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group
- Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy
Technical Progress & Tracking
2011 2017
Framework, Technology,
Economics
2014 2016 2017
Policy Implementation
3 © OECD/IEA 2018
Thailand grid integration project overview
• Thailand’s Ministry of Energy (MOEN) has officially requested the IEA to provide support on
the study of the impact of variable renewable energy (VRE) and mitigation strategies under
the project “Thailand grid renewable integration assessment”.
• It aims to assist the main stakeholders through workshops, discussions/meetings, detailed
study and analysis
- Energy policy and planning
- System operators – transmission and distribution levels
- Energy regulatory commission
4 © OECD/IEA 2018
Objectives of the project
• Support the reliable and cost-effective uptake of RE generation in Thailand
- Identifying barriers to renewable deployment and integration challenges as well as
proposing possible options in addressing these challenges;
• Provide support by sharing international and regional best practices in
integrating renewables
- Drawing upon the IEA’s network of international experts;
• Conduct quantitative and qualitative analysis on the impact and value of
renewables in the power system;
• Facilitate national and international dialogue through capacity building
workshops and trainings.
5 © OECD/IEA 2018
• VRE phase assessment
for existing system
• Qualitative assessment
of suitability of existing
grid codes for VRE
Analysis components of the project
Each work stream provides insights and recommended actions for Thailand Grid Renewable Integration
1. Existing
power system
context
2. Grid impact
assessment
3. Distributed
solar PV
4. Power sector
planning and
VRE system
costs
• Analysing options to
accommodate RE
integration
• Contractual and
technical flexibility
• Technical potential of
rooftop PV in Thailand
• Economic impacts of PV
• Recommendations and
action priorities
• Assessment of power
sector planning in
Thailand
• System cost and cost
benefit analysis
6 © OECD/IEA 2018
Future power system scenario assumptions for 2036
• Detailed 30-minute power system model
• Validation scenario
- Based on the 2016 system
- Provides a baseline for comparison
• Core scenarios in 2036
- Base scenario (Power Development Plan)
- Assumed higher shares of wind/solar to assess possible integration challenges
• Operational and contractual flexibility option scenarios
- Gas and power purchase contract,
- power plant operational characteristics,
- DSM, EV, storage
Core
ScenarioDescription
Annual
shares
Current (2016)For validation, 3GW solar
and 600 MW wind~3%
Base case (2036)
PDP 2015 target of 6 GW solar and 3 GW wind
6%
RE1 (2036) 12 GW solar, 5 GW wind 12%
RE2 (2036) 17 GW solar, 6 GW wind 15%
RE2 scenario (2036)
•Site selection based on
– Resource potential
– proximity to
transmission
– other considerations
7 © OECD/IEA 2018
Modelling used for the analysis
• Thailand power system model built in the PLEXOS
- 30-min demand data, for 7 regions
- Dispatchable generator operating parameters:
- Ramp rates, min/max gen, heat rates, min up/down times
- Hydro energy constraints with seasonality
- Transmission 230 and 500 kV
- 30-min wind & solar generation
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
VRE Share (%) Base Case
Solar Wind Annual Average (VRE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
RE1 Case
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
vD
ec
RE2 Case
8 © OECD/IEA 2018
Detailed analysis of wind, solar output reveals complementarity
There is a high contribution of solar towards a midday peak demand while the wind profile generally
ramps up during the late evening
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
VRE Generation (MW)Load (MW)
Wind (CAC) Wind (NAC) Wind (NEC) Wind (SAC)
Solar (CAC) Solar (MAC) Solar (NAC) Solar (NEC)
Solar (SAC) Load Net Load
9 © OECD/IEA 2018
Generation pattern during minimum load period
The system can meet demand reliably during the most challenging weeks, but this requires flexible
operations of including steep ramping and cycling of coal plants.
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
Generation/Load (MW)
Base
Nuclear Coal Biomass and waste Other gas
CCGT GT (diesel) CCGT (OC mode) Hydro
Solar Wind Load Net Load
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE1
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE2
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
Generation/Load (MW)
Base
Nuclear Coal Biomass and waste Other gas
CCGT GT (diesel) CCGT (OC mode) Hydro
Solar Wind Load Net Load
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE1
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE2
10 © OECD/IEA 2018
Impact on dispatch of reduced minimum generation
Reduced minimum generation of power plants allows increased deloading of thermal generation
(mostly coal but also other gas) while it is still available to increase output as net demand increases
RE2 core scenario
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
Generation/Load (MW) RE2
Nuclear Coal Biomass and waste Other gas
CCGT Hydro Solar Wind
CCGT (OC mode) GT (diesel) VRE curtailment Load
Net load
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE2 + Plant Flexibility
RE2 low minimum generation
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
Generation/Load (MW) RE2
Nuclear Coal Biomass and waste Other gas
CCGT Hydro Solar Wind
CCGT (OC mode) GT (diesel) VRE curtailment Load
Net load
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
31 Dec00:00
31 Dec06:00
31 Dec12:00
31 Dec18:00
RE2 + Plant Flexibility
11 © OECD/IEA 2018
Demand Side Response from Electric Vehicles
Demand response can shift load to periods of abundant supply,
while reducing demand during evening hours.
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
55 000
60 000
14 May00:00
14 May12:00
15 May00:00
15 May12:00
16 May00:00
16 May12:00
Load (MW)
RE2 RE2 with EVs
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
15 May00:00
15 May06:00
15 May12:00
15 May18:00
EV Load (MW)Generation/Load
(MW)
FUEL OIL NUCLEAR COAL GAS
DIESEL HYDRO BIOMASS_WASTE WIND
SOLAR Load EV Load Price (THB/MWh)
0
1 500
3 000
4 500
6 000
7 500
9 000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
15 May00:00
15 May06:00
15 May12:00
15 May18:00
Price (THB/MWh)Generation/Load (MW)
12 © OECD/IEA 2018
Cost benefits of additional flexibility options
Additional flexibility options allow for further cost savings when integrating higher shares of
renewables, with fuel cost savings due to additional plant flexibility having the biggest impact
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
RE2 with PlantFlexibility
RE2 with 800MW battery
RE2 withFlexible EV
charging
RE2 withFlexible
IndustrialLoads
RE2 withPumped
Storage Hydro
RE2 with allFlexibility
Options (except400MWbattery)
Total savings per cost component (%
of operating costs)
Fuel Cost Ramp Cost Start & Shutdown Cost Import Hydro Cost VO&M Cost Total
13 © OECD/IEA 2018
Key findings – operational, economic and institutional aspects
• Grid impact assessment
- Much more ambitious solar and wind energy targets are possible from the operational aspect.
- Net ramping requirements increase with higher shares of VRE generation
- Power purchase and gas supply contracts limit currently available flexibility
- DSM, EV and storage and reduced min generation are cost-effective flexibility options
• Distributed PV
- Roof-top availability is no relevant constraint to uptake of distributed solar PV
- Electricity tariff reform is required to ensure a long-term, sustainable uptake of distributed PV
• Power system planning and system cost assessment
- Move towards more integrated planning will be beneficial
- Flexibility options can improve system integration and reduce system costs
15 © OECD/IEA 2018
1) Existing power system context
• Grid integration
context
• Grid connection
codes
• Renewable
energy control
centre
• VRE phase assessment
for Thailand
• Qualitative assessment
of suitability of existing
codes for VRE
• Role, best practices
and Thailand context
for implementation of
RE control centre
The Thai electricity system is flexible technically, but institutional and contractual constraints limit
mobilising this flexibility
Items Approaches
16 © OECD/IEA 2018
Thailand’s future electricity system has sufficient flexibility options to accommodate a reasonable share
of VRE generation, but some required advanced planning to provide benefits.
Grid Impact Assessment
• VRE Impacts on
system operation
• Flexibility options
to accommodate
VRE integration
• VRE integration
phase assessment
for 2036
• Detailed 30-minute power system model
• Scenario analysis of flexibility options (power plant, DSM, EV, storage)
• Assessment of modelling results in the context of integration phases
Items Approaches
17 © OECD/IEA 2018
Available roof-top area is no relevant constraint for distributed PV, but changes to tariff structures are
needed to ensure that costs and benefits are shared fairly
3) Distributed solar PV
• Technical potential
of rooftop PV in
Thailand
• Economic impacts
of PV
• Recommendations
and action
priorities
Items Approaches
• Measurement of
rooftop area and
generation estimates
• Evaluation of the impact
on the utilities
• Cost benefit analysis for
setting purchasing tariff
18 © OECD/IEA 2018
Planning processes show room for improvement. Solar PV and wind can reduce customer bills, but only
if their cost in Thailand is reduced to international benchmark levels.
4) Power sector planning and VRE system costs
• Assessment of
power sector
planning in
Thailand
• System cost and
cost benefit
analysis
• Detailed qualitative
assessment of the PDP
process
• Quantitative analysis of
the system costs of VRE
in the context of the
future Thailand system
Items Approaches
19 © OECD/IEA 2018
Effect of renewable generation on conventional generation
As shares of VRE increase, it predominantly displaces CCGT generation.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Base RE1 RE2
Generation share
SOLAR WIND CCGTTHERMAL GAS OPEN-CYCLE MODE NUCLEARDIESEL HYDRO COALCHP BIOMASS WASTE
20 © OECD/IEA 2018
Maximum 3-hour ramping
The highest 3-hour ramps vary from a maximum of 39% of daily peak load in the Base to 62% in RE2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3-hour ramps (% daily net peak
load)
Base RE1 RE2
21 © OECD/IEA 2018
Cost benefits of flexible gas supply contracts
Inflexible long term gas contracts can potentially prevent significant fuel cost savings (up to ~14% in
the RE2 scenario), though it is slightly offset by higher cycling costs
-202468
10121416
RE1 RE2
Total savings per cost component
(% of operating costs)
Fuel Cost Import Hydro Cost Ramp CostStart & Shutdown Cost VO&M Cost Total % additional cost