Renewable Energy Technology Road-mapping

Assessment of Renewable Energy Technologies using Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis

A.G.T. Sugathapala, K.A.C. Seneviratne, S.A.G.C. Subasinghe, W.D.A.G.K. Katugaha

Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

CONTENT

▪ Renewable Energy Exploration

▪ Renewable Energy Resources

▪ Resource Maps

▪ Resource Inventories

▪ Technology Road-Mapping

▪ Resource Technology Options Prioritization

▪ Analytical Hierarchical Process

▪ Weighted Sum Matrix Model

▪ Illustration Example

▪ Discussion

2

RESOURCE

MAPS

▪ Technical potential of RE

▪ Wind – 20,000 MW, Solar – Extremely high , Small Hydro – 800 MW & Biomass – 8,000 MW

RESOURCE

INVENTORY

TECHNOLOGY

ROAD MAP

RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPLORATION

The Strategic Approach

▪ Exploitable RE potentials considering socio-environmental limitations

▪ Wind – 5,000 MW, Solar – 18,000 MW +,

▪ Small Hydro – 800 MW & Biomass – 1,000 MW

▪ A systematic framework

▪ To prioritize different

RE Resource-Technology-Application options, focusing policy targets

3

• Resource Maps

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Biomass – Dendro Plantations

(kWh/m2/yr)

Very Good

Restricted Areas

Poor

Moderate

Good

Excellent

Hydro Potential

Areas

River Network

1,790 – 1,840

1,247 – 1,556

1,557 – 1,653

1,654 – 1,727

1,728 – 1,789

2,006– 2,106

1,841 – 1,899

1,890 – 1,932

1,923 – 1967

1,968– 2,005

4

< 50,000

100,001 – 150,000

> 200,000

50,001 – 100,000

150,001 – 200,000

Tons per Annum

Sources : NREL and SLSEA Resource Maps

• Technology Road-Mapping – The Concept

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

5

Today Towards Sustainable Energy Systems

Micro-hydro

Waste / Agro-residues

Mini Hydro

Wind: Offshore

Ocean Wave

Geothermal

BAU (lighter pie) vs additional energy potential (darker pie)

Ch

allen

ges f

or

Imp

lem

en

tati

on

Time Horizon

3rd

Phase

1st

Phase 2nd

Phase

Solar PV Net metering

Pico-hydro

Solar Home

Biomass: Dendro power

Mini Hydro: Irrigation Channels

OTEC

Biomass: MSW

Solar PV

Wind: Hill-country

Pump Storage:

Large-hydro

Pump Storage: Lift irrigation

Ice Storage

Wind: Onshore

Biomass: Cogeneration

Mini Hydro: Low head

Small Hydro

Wind

Biomass

Solar

Geothermal

Ocean

CSP

Storage

Biomass: Co-firing

Hydrogen Storage

2050+

RESOURCE-TECHNOLOGY-OPTIONS

▪ Evaluation of RE resource-technology- options in terms of implementation difficulty and planning period

▪ Prioritization based on the Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis (MCDA)

a. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)

&

b. Weighted Sum Matrix (WSM)

PRIORITIZATION

6

To assess the implementation difficulties of renewable resource for electricity generation Goal

Criteria Technical Financial Social Environmental Other

Sub-

criteria

Grid Availability

Dispatch flexibility

Technology

Transfer

Technology cost-

Investment

Life Cycle Cost

Financing

Availability

Social Acceptance

Life Cycle Cost

Socio-Economic

Impact

Outdoor Air

Quality

Green House Gas

Mitigation

Opportunity

WLB Impact

Land Availability

National Policies

and Strategies

Institutional

Arrangements

Information

Alternatives

Hydro

Mini Micro Low

head

Wind

On-Grid Complex

Terrain

Off

Shore On

Shore

Biomass

On Grid Off

Grid MSW

Solar

CSP PV Off

Grid

1. Problem Decomposition

a. ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS (AHP)

7

2. Comparative analysis

- Pair wise comparison of sustainability criteria

3. Computation of Priority Values

a. ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS cont..

b. WEIGHTED SUM MATRIX MODEL

8

• Evaluate Technology Options

ILLUSTRATION EXAMPLE : GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Implementation Difficulty

Time (Development Periods)

Solar CSP

Solar PV

WindOnshore

Small Hydro

MSW

High

Low

Prioritization of RE resource-technology-options

9

ILLUSTRATION EXAMPLE : CRITERIA-WISE PERFORMANCE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TechnicalCriteria

FinancialCriteria

SocialCriteria

Environmental Criteria

Other

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Wind On Shore

Small Hydro

MSW

Performance of selected technology applications

with respect to criteria

10

DISCUSSION ▪ Effective tool for policy makers and planners

▪ Comprehensive understanding about the RE resource-tech-applications is required

▪ Should be supported by data/literature information

▪ Difficulty of selecting mutually independent sub criteria for two axis (Implementation difficulty & Deployment period)

▪ Importance of engagement of stakeholders throughout this process

▪ Monitoring and evaluating mechanism, feedback for continuous improvement

11

Acknowledgements for the organizers of ACEF 2015

Computation of Priority Values

Technical Financial Social Environ-

mental Other

Normalized

Eigen

Vectors

Technical 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 0.429

Financial 0.50 1.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 0.236

Social 0.33 0.50 1.00 1/2 3.00 0.125

Environmental 0.25 0.50 2.0 1.00 2.00 0.143

Other 0.20 0.33 0.33 0.50 1.00 0.067

Normalized

Eigen

Vectors

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Weights of

sustainable

criteria

Equally

distribution

of Weights

12

14

Assigned Weight for the Sub

Criteria

Assign Weight by evaluating against a

Technology

Actual Weight Score for the Sub Criteria

Summation of Actual

Weights of Criteria

Max Weight for the Sub

criteria

Summation of Maximum weights

of Criteria X 3

AHP Weight of the

Criteria

Normalized Value

WEIGHTED SUM MATRIX MODEL