RENEWABLE ENERGY

TECHNOLOGY &MARKET ISSUES, PRIVATE SECTOR

PARTICIPATION

dev. Needed. Cost of processing, effy.- major issues for development.

• Solar Value chain >> India has access to high quality sand but prodn. of refined metallrgcl Silicon costly, complicated and energy intensive. Big players like Reliance, Moser Baer setting up wafer fabrication plants, Reliance for 2.8 BUSD plant to mfr. Ingots, wafers and modules. India already had cumulative cap. Of 15 MW of Solar cell in 2007. By 2012, 500 MW cap. envisaged. Other players Tata BP Solar, Signets Solar etc. 19 Solar PV modules players now in India. Prdn. Cap. Installed for modules 180 MW in 2008. Projected 4 GW by 2017. India have over 60

• Processed raw material for solar cell, SPV module, roof tiles (solar cell integrated), invertors, charge controllers>>would have huge demand in future.

RENEWABLE ENERGY – Technology & Market Issues

The total energy from the sun incoming on the earth is around 174 peta watt which is many many times more than the total power demand of all nations.The global market size according to data graph group and cleanedge is around 226 BUSD by 2016. This figure only estimated at 55 BUSD in 2006. India FY 2010 about 16,000 MW total RE, 10% of total generation. Approx. potential wind 49 GW, small hydro 14GW, bio-mass 27 GW, solar at least 650 GW.Projected RE in 2050, 70%

Success of Renewable Energy and its rapid uptake depends on concern for remaining fossil fuel reserve and connected issues of import dependence as also energy security, environmental protection and Govt. support and financial incentives.

NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) has forecast that there will be around 13 MW of CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) by about 2015. For the last plan period, PV Solar was forecast to have a capacity of 20 GW by 2012.

The cost of solar panels have fallen rapidly, sometimes > 40%. This is due to scale, process, new design, innovation, new materials

Private investment in the wind farms already planned around 4400 MW in wind, about 400 in solar. Attempts are also being made for installing a 5 MW Geo-thermal Plant in Gujarat.

Renewable Energy commercialization involves 3 generations of Renewable Energy : the first one including Biomass Hydel power and Geo-thermal power are already matured and competitive.

2nd generation technologies are market ready and being deployed at present such as Solar heating, Solar PV, Wind Power, Solar Thermal and modern forms of Bio-energy.

3rd generations technologies requires continuous R&D for such needs as Bio refinery, Hot dry rock Geo-thermal power and Ocean energy.

Barriers of policy and political leadership are to be removed. 98 countries have set up their own targets for their own

Renewable Energy future. Total investment in Renewable Energy about 211 BUSD in

2010, up from 160 BUSD in 2009. The top countries were China, Germany, US, Italy and Brazil.

India has abundant sun light, average 300 sunny days in a year.

Remote area, remote villages are important. Also day-light farming needs power.

We have abundance of sun shine, but ignorance about solar power. Germany which is cloudy many times has largest solar power installation because of smart governance.

ROI in desert base plants in barren lands will be much higher.

In many areas cases, solar energy cheaper than drawing cables or transmission lines from long distance.

Nobody believed in the future of laptop, flat screen TV or mobile which are now high selling items.

Past 3 years solar panel cost have dropped by half. Reasons are large scale production, method of production, new materials etc.

Some say by 2020 or even earlier, solar electric power will match the conventional power cost, helped by rising cost of coal

The main criterion will always be not the cost of equipment but the tariff for energy. New and efficient solar panels are being devised. Also, solar systems are very easily expandable.

Also must be made popular solar heating and solar lighting. Qualified system integrators are must as the accessories such

as inverter, battery etc. have to be chosen very carefully. Venture capital funding has stormy relationship with energy

technology. The interest in Renewable Energy is high when the oil prices high but it dwindles downs again when the oil prices is lowered.

About 202 ventures and private equity fund have invested 1.7 BUSD in 165 transactions covering wind, solar, biomass, geo-thermal, bio-fuel, small scale hydro and small technology.

Growth rate has been fantastic, solar PV increased 6 fold in 4 years, wind power 2 ½ times etc.

For barriers in India cost of money is one. Low clarity persists.

• 10 large and medium players are coming in for in-vestment under semi-conductor policy. They include big names like Reliance Industry, Lanco Solar, Signet Solar PV Technologies India etc., total investment running up to 17 to 18 BUSD.

• According to a report of ISA (India Semiconductor Association) compiled by PwC, there were already 90 companies into Solar PV mfg. in India in 2007>> 9 mfg. solar cells, 19 mfg. PV modules, 60 engaged in assembly and supply of solar PV system.

• All the above are only partially integrated – lack of bulk value addition & integration in India.

• Scaling and integration are two major issues for Indian players.

• India is already seen as a low cost, high-tech hub for solar component mfr.

• According to one ISA study solar pv costs at present (about Rs.150/- per Wp) is far more attractive option for electrification for a village than extending the grid by around 12 km.

We need the proposed ultra mega power projects but Renewable Energy in another 5 years will compete head on with coal / oil fired units. The challenge will remain which will mean not compromising growth by investment in Renewable Energy, particularly wind, solar and bio-fuel.

“There are always better ways of doing things; our challenge will remain to find them out”.