© IRENA 2013 1

Frank Wouters3 October 2013

Renewable Energy: Changing Perspectives

Content

© IRENA 2013 2

Introduction

Energy transformation

Impact on stakeholders

Mandate: To promote the widespread and sustainable useof renewable energy worldwide

Objective: To serve as centre of excellence, advisory resource, and network hub for renewable energy

Scope: All renewable energy sources produced in a sustainable manner:

Bioenergy Geothermal Hydropower Ocean Solar Wind Energy Energy Energy Energy

© IRENA 2013 3

Introduction: IRENA

Key Facts about IRENA

© IRENA 2013 4

Formally established in 2011

Based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

First global intergovernmental organisation headquartered in the Middle East

118 Members (Sep 2013)

43 countries in the process of becoming Members

IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre (IITC) – Bonn, Germany

Permanent Observer to the United Nations

Approx. 120 staff

Energy Transformation: PV

Predictions for Solar in 2010

1995 - EPIA

• “The official installed target scenario for 2010 [..] represents a global forecast of 11.3 GW of which only 1.2 GW are outside the USA, Japan and Europe.”

Solar Electricity in 2010, Installed Target Scenarios by EPIA published in 1995.

1998 - IEA

• “By 2010, installed solar power capacity would be 500 MW resulting in power generation of 0.7 TWh.”

IEA World Energy Outlook, published in 1998

2007 – Photon Consulting

• “Solar cell/module manufacturing to rapidly increase from 4 GW in 2007 to 13.35GW in 2010.”

Solar Annual 2007, Micheal Rogol, Photon Consulting

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Reality

7

• At the end of 2010, the world’s PV cumulative installed capacity was 40 GW.

Sola

r P

V In

stal

led

Cap

acit

y in

GW

s

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) Power [MW]

Global Distribution

8 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013

Future Outlook

US

Germany

Italy

India

Spain

China

Japan

PV Markets “Explode”

9

IRENA Costing Alliance

Data on the cost and performance of renewable energy technologies

Reduces uncertainty on current costs and trends

Boosts IRENA engagement with the private sector

Informs IRENA research and analyses on costs

© IRENA 2013 10

Impact on incumbents

11

Impact on incumbents

12

20.00

22.00

24.00

26.00

28.00

30.00

32.00

34.00

36.00

38.00

9/26/2012 12/26/2012 3/26/2013 6/26/2013

Euro

RWE Share Price Development

Monopolies Commission Report (5 Sept 2013)

Negative Network Effect

13

Changing Energy Geopolitics

14

SOURCE: AP/Evan Vucci

“We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We

have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas

and the amount of renewable energy we generate from

sources like wind and solar”

President Obama at the State of the Union Address, 2013

“We are going to reduce carbon pollution by using more clean

energy. Over the past four years, we've doubled the electricity

that we generate from zero-carbon wind and solar power”

President Obama at Georgetown University Washington D.C., June 25th 2013

The Secretary of Defense delayed the deployment of

aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman and USS Gettysburg.

The deployment was originally scheduled for Feb 8th 2013.

This leaves the carrier John C. Stennis and its carrier strike

group as the only carrier force operating in the Persian Gulf

region.

Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group Public Affairs

China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning departs.

“In a bid to flex its military might amidst various

territorial disputes, China will be building more aircraft

carriers. The next aircraft carriers we need will be

larger and carry more fighters.”

Rear Admiral Song Xue, Chinese Navy

Source: China Daily, 2013-06-11

China

China is expected to overtake Germany to become

the world's largest solar power.

“The nation's installed photovoltaic power capacity as

of Dec 31st 2012 was 6.5 million kilowatts, according

to the China Electricity Council. China will add at least

10 million kW of capacity every year from 2013 to

2015”Says Zhang Xiaoqiang, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, on September 12, 2013 at the Summer Davos Forum.

5 Years From Now…….

16

Solar plug parity has been reached in most countries,

leading to democratization of energy

• Electricity bills could be reduced by 20-30%, and the payback time would be 5-6 years for commercial solar systems and 10-11 years for residential systems. Up to 14-18% demand destruction for utilities by self-generated solar power.

• In the wealthy zip codes battery storage has become economical and more and more people choose to go standalone.

Incumbent Utilities

• Utilities in wealthy zip code areas face serious revenue erosion.

• Some utilities have successfully changed business model, used their client base,

have diversified into services and have become solar energy system integrators.

Access

• PV has become the mainstream energy source for rural electrification

Market Size?

Unless otherwise indicated, material in this presentation may be freely used, shared or reprinted, so long as IRENA is acknowledged as the source

© IRENA 2013

www.irena.org