Renault rump:Time to Chinese (+ 7201 JP / - RNO FP)13% upside

April 2016

Mathias Lascar mlascar@makorsecurities.com+ 44 207 290 57 77

Trade: Long Nissan / Short RNO. 13% upside• Renault owns 44,7% of Nissan since 1998• Renault s stake in Nissan is worth 16,5bnE at market value (or 64,75% of

Renault market cap)

• Our views• Renault core business is not quite expensive vs historical levels• A placement by the French State, which was “promised” for Spring 2016 in late 2015 is

still due to take place. A 5% placement could happen by the Summer of 2016 we think.

• Upside: • We estimate Rump could return to around 4bnE (vs 7,6bnE at present), which

represents a 13% upside on the trade

Evolution of the Renault rump – 1 year• RNO RUMP = RNO market cap - stake in Nissan (in EUR) – stake

in Daimler (in EUR) – RNO treasury shares

Evolution of the Renault rump – 5 years

Valuation wise, RNO core business not cheap

RENAULTPrice 86,59Shares 295,722Market Cap 25 607 NAV 28 499NAV / SHARE 96,37

Upside on Renault = 11%-0,101502833

Listed Asset Price Shares O/S Ownership Shares owned Dividend per share in EURTotal Gross dividend perceived Hedge Value % of TotalNissan Motor 8,24 4 495 44,7% 2007 0,34 684 678,677% 16 546 58%Nissan Diesel

Daimler 63,23 1 070 1,6% 16,58 3,3 54 1 049 4%Avtovaz 0,00 0 25,0% 0,00 0 0 0%

Volvo A sold 12/12/12 505 20,0% 138,60 0,33 45 0 0%Volvo B sold 8/10/10Renault 86,59 295,7 3,0% 8,900 771 3%

Sub Total 18 365 64%Core Business ShareHolder Equity15 Imply sales x e Price / Book value Multiple Value % of TotalRenault Automobile * 23127 0,17 0,28 6 575 23%Renault Finance 3 136 1 3 136 11%Subtotal 9 711 34%

Pension profivions (31/12/14) -1 681 -6%

- Renault Automobile Net Debt Dec 2014 2 104 7%Sub Total 423 1%Total NAV = 28 499 100%

• RNO core business trades at 4,5x EBIT (in line with BMW and Daimler !!)

French State could sell 5% soon• Despite promises to revert to 15% shareholding, the French

government continues to hold 19.7% of Renault shares (though maintains that it will reduce the stake in spring 2016).

• => placement could happen soon in my view, I think we're back to levels where French government loses nothing nor wins nothing (bot a bit higher but received a DVD of 1.90E)

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