reliable measurement as a key to sustainable ......reliable measurement as a key to sustainable...
TRANSCRIPT
RELIABLE MEASUREMENT AS A KEY TO
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Presentation to the 2012 Test & Measurement Conference, 2nd to the 5th of September 2012, Elangeni Hotel & Conference Centre, Durban, South Africa
Presentation compiled and presented by Peter Lukey, Chief Policy Advisor: Strategic
Environmental Intelligence, Department of Environmental Affairs
MRV’S INAUSPICIOUS START
Everyone involved in international climate change
negotiations talks about MRV – outcomes, increases,
reductions, transfers, inputs, outputs and/or products
that are Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable
The concept of audit, the motivation behind MRV, is not
a concept associated with trust
However, mistrust has an upside – better planning and
improved outcomes confirmed through accurate
Measurement, Reporting and Verification
MRV AND THE PRESIDENCY
The Presidency’s “outcome-based approach” that is
the basis for Ministers’ performance contracts
Derived from
ANC’s Manifesto,
MTSF, POA and
Departments
strategic plans
Outcomes
Measure 3–5
outputs that tell us
whether we are
making progress
in delivering the
outcome
Tested with
internal and
external experts
Outputs
Measure delivery
of key activities
that we believe will
fundamentally
enhance the
performance of
the conversion
process
Activities
Determine optimal
allocation of inputs
given desired
outcomes
Reallocate inputs if
necessary
Input
What are the key
outcomes that
Government wants to
achieve?
Which priority outputs
should we measure to
see if we are achieving
each outcome?
Where should the
system focus in order
to achieve the outputs?
How much do we need
to invest to achieve the
best mix of desired
outcomes?
Step 1Step 2Step 3Step 4
Input-
Outcome
Model
New
Evaluation
and
Monitoring
Approach
THE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
To formulate effective responses to climate change, South Africa needs a country-wide monitoring system to measure climate variables at scales appropriate to the institutions
that must implement climate change responses.
The “Informed decision-making and planning” Strategic Priority –
prioritise research, systemic observation, knowledge generation, information management and early warning systems that increase our ability to measure and predict
climate change and the implications of its adverse effects on the economy, society and the environment.
MRV AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
Chapter 12 of South Africa’s National Climate Change
Response Policy (2011) deals with “Monitoring and
Evaluation” –
Part 1 deals with “Monitoring Climate Change” –
Given the nature and implications of climate change
and the economic and social implications of effective
climate change responses, decisions must be based
on accurate, current and complete information in
order to reduce risk and ensure that interventions are
effective.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – MONITORING
CLIMATE CHANGE
Ensure that nation-wide climate change and
atmosphere monitoring systems are maintained and
enhanced where necessary, including through
monitoring networks at appropriate spatial density and
frequency that monitor, among others -
rainfall,
ambient air temperature,
humidity,
soil moisture,
wind and solar radiation,
lightning,
extreme weather event characteristics and their impacts,
selected atmospheric GHGs,
gas fluxes from selected vegetation,
soil and marine carbon pools,
sea levels,
sea surface temperature,
ocean current behaviour and acidity.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – MONITORING
CLIMATE CHANGE (Cont.)
Data analysis, synthesis, archiving, interpretation and dissemination will be a key component of this effort.
Ensure that climate change impacts are monitored at appropriate spatial density and frequency, where feasible, of changes in –
spatial distribution and incidence of climate-sensitive diseases;
ecosystems and the goods and services they supply;
key species responses (including invasive alien species);
wildfire hydrology and water resources; and
agricultural and forestry production.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – MONITORING
RESPONSES
Part 3 deals with “Monitoring Response” –
To monitor the success of responses to climate change and to replicate the ones that have worked well, we need
to measure their cost, outcome and impact.
The outcomes-based system –
Monitoring and evaluation of the Country’s climate change programme shall be undertaken through the
outcomes-based system that the Presidency has established and shall be reported through the delivery
forums for these outcomes.
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – MONITORING
RESPONSES (Cont.)
Mitigation monitoring – South Africa’s climate change mitigation interventions will be monitored
and measured against the National Emissions Trajectory Range
The implementation of objectives and measures specified in the Carbon
Budget and sectoral mitigation strategies will be measured, reported and
verified to assess progress in their implementation.
The Climate Change Response Monitoring and Evaluation System will
assess indicators defined in the Carbon Budget and sectoral mitigation
strategies which may include indicators of:
implementation,
local sustainable development benefits and
the impact of programmes and measures on emissions.
MRV AND AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
Prior to the new Air Quality Act (2004) –
Outdated legislation dating back to 1965
Some data collected, but not used
Negotiated or WAG1 approach to emission regulation
No planning
No national government air quality monitoring
No information sharing
1 “Wild-assed guess”
SAAQIS – 2020 VISION
The vision for the South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS) in 2020 –
Ambient Air Quality Information –
There are stations monitoring the problem air pollutants in areas that cover at least 90% of places where South Africans work and live
There is full monitoring coverage in all metros and large cities
At least 90% of the monitoring stations are fully operational, properly maintained and are SANAS accredited
A number of background stations are located so as to sample air masses of terrestrial or marine origin
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – AMBIENT AIR QUALITY
(Cont.)
Where practical and appropriate AQ monitoring
equipment is incorporated into the standard SAWS
climate monitoring platforms such as the AWS, or
moving platforms such as aircraft, ships or buoys.
Scientists are highly complementary of the National
Air Quality Monitoring Network and data from the
network is often used in scientific publications
We confidently estimate the national cost of poor air
quality using available ambient air quality data
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – AMBIENT AIR QUALITY
(Cont.)
We are adequately filling monitoring station data gaps
with data collected by satellites
The National Air Quality Indicator provides a useful
measure of the overall quality of South Africa’s air
We are well along a path of using near real time satellite
data as our primary information source “ground-truthed”
by monitoring station data
We have assisted our neighbours in establishing
monitoring stations and they are also feeding
information to SAAQIS making its ambient air quality
module the “Southern African” air quality information
system
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – INDUSTRIAL EMISSION
REGULATION
Industrial Emission Regulation
All Atmospheric Emission Licensing (AEL) applications, renewals, amendments are channelled to the Licensing Authority via the SAAQIS on-line licensing portal
National, provincial and local government are getting real-time data and statistics around AELs (no of applications, to whom, new industry development trends, backlogs, bottlenecks, etc.)
Air Quality Officers have full access to AELs, emissions data, regulatory, enforcement and complaints histories
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – INDUSTRIAL EMISSION
REGULATION (Cont.)
Automatic warnings of reporting and emission non-compliance are being generated and posted to affected officials
Automatic lists of possible suspects causing ambient air quality standard non-compliance are being generated and posted to affected officials and e-mailed query to suspect is generated
Air quality modelling support is being provided for EIAs, planning, industrial development scenarios, SEAs, etc.
AQOs are accessing up to date manuals, guidelines, protocols, case studies.
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – INDUSTRIAL EMISSION
REGULATION (Cont.)
Sector AELA contact lists are being generated and sector discussion forums are being used (e.g. to discuss disturbing trend in the tyre recycling industry)
Communication to all AEL holders is taking place through bulk e-mails
Air pollution warnings and poor dispersion condition updates are being provided to AQOs and AEL holders
Register of all air quality offset interventions is being used
National atmospheric emission inventory and associated analysis and reports are being generated
Satellite imaged air pollution hotspots are automatically ground-truthed and warnings issued…
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – GENERAL AIR QUALITY
MANAGEMENT
General Air Quality Management –
Automated warnings of poor ambient air quality and/or poor dispersion conditions are triggering response interventions, e.g. fire stations extinguish veld fires, and warn local health services
“Dirty pictures” are being used to name and shame air polluters
IAPs are accessing all air quality management plans and associated progress and status reports
Road traffic emission monitoring and modelling is assisting in transport system and infrastructure design
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – GENERAL AIR QUALITY
MANAGEMENT (Cont.)
Road traffic emission monitoring is sending
automated reports of “mega-polluter” to local EMIs
(links to toll gantry photos being explored)
On line training modules for air quality monitoring
technicians, planners, licensing authorities, etc.
Up to date internal and external research findings
published and “blogged”
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION
SAAQIS is a well known and respected website amongst everyone who has some interest in South African Air Quality –
Municipal and provincial officials use it on a daily basis to check the air in their areas, download manuals, check AEL status, new research and news articles
NGOs and CBOs visit the site on, at least, a monthly basis to download the ambient air quality data to inform their campaigns and comments on EIAs, check out new regulatory developments, see how well we are performing against our air quality and climate change mitigation targets
Researchers visit the site for data and reference materials
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION (Cont.)
Consultants visit the site for data and to get emissions data for dispersion models
Teachers and learners utilise the site extensively for school projects
International developers use the site to check out pollution hotspots to avoid
People use on-line tutorial to get full benefit from SAAQIS
Our neighbouring countries find the site a valuable source of inspiration for their own air quality management initiatives
The factory environmental manager uses SAAQIS to do mandatory emission reporting
SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION (Cont.)
Developers are using SAAQIS’ on-line license application facility
The department is using SAAQIS as it’s key air quality monitoring, reporting and verification system
EMIs are getting air quality complaints and are logging responses
The Presidency and the National Planning Commission are using SAAQIS graphs and graphics to illustrate air quality trends and performance
The aviation sector is getting visibility data and forecasts
The media are getting air quality forecasts and other potential news stories…
The SAAQIS
server at SAWS
Validation module for
monitoring networks
Data reports
generating tools
Data assessment
tools
Emission monitoring &
reporting
Reports
Ambient air quality
monitoring stations
The SAAQIS web
site
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING
Death by a thousand cuts –
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Death by a thousand cuts –
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Death by a thousand cuts –
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Death by a thousand cuts –
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Environmental restoration and/or rehabilitation – Some changes in land use can provide a net environmental
improvement when measured by such indicators as species number and diversity.
In the best cases, degraded environments are almost fully restored to their natural state (e.g. depleted cultivated or over-grazed farmland restored to its natural state as part of, say, a game-farm development).
In other cases, severely degraded land that supports little biodiversity is changed to a use that improves biodiversity (e.g. strip-mined area converted into a golf course).
However, despite these positive contributions to the environment, these developments do not balance the negative impacts and, hence, “death by a thousand cuts” continues, albeit at a marginally slower rate.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Re-establishing the environment-development balance –
It seems theoretically possible that if land use changes with negative environmental impacts were balanced with land use changes with positive environment impacts then “death by a thousand cuts” could be significantly slowed.
Indeed, it could be argued that if a slight bias was given to the land use changes with positive environment impacts (i.e. the balance is slightly skewed in favour of positive environmental outcomes), then “death by a thousand cuts” could be slowly reversed.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Environmental Offsets – For the purposes of this
presentation the following definition is used –
“An environmental offset is an intervention, or
interventions, specifically implemented to
counterbalance an adverse environmental impact of
land-use change, resource use, discharge, emission or
other activity at one location that is implemented at
another location to deliver a net environmental benefit”.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
There may be, at least, four specific types of
environmental offsets that may be identified by, for
example, their spatial application –
Carbon offsets;
Biodiversity offsets;
Air Quality offsets; and
Water Quality offsets.
Each of these four specific types of environmental
offsets are at different stages of development
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Current thinking –
Ambivalence associated with discussion around
offsets that may be associated with concerns
around offsetting being perceived as “green wash”
in some quarters.
The concept is being rolled out in quite a
conservative fashion.
For example, biodiversity offsetting is considered an
“intervention of last resort” rather than a proactive
sustainable development tool.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Environmental offsets theoretically hold great
promise in terms of all three pillars of sustainable
development –
Environment – net improvements in
environmental quality;
Society – net improvements in air and water
quality, improved quality of life, etc.
Economy – new job creation opportunities,
improved land productivity, etc.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
Environmental offsets may provide a new and novel
alternative solution to long-standing problems of,
among others –
Un-rehabilitated derelict and ownerless mines;
Increased funding for public works programmes like the
“Working For…” programmes;
Grand-fathering – addressing the resistance for operators
of old technologies to meet tighter environmental
management conditions;
The generation of many decent jobs for unskilled and
semi-skilled people.
ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)
There appears to be an increasing urgency associated
with a more rigorous regulatory approach to offsetting.
For example –
Carbon offsetting is specifically mentioned in National
Treasury’s recent work around carbon taxes; and
Environmental offsetting is specifically mentioned in the
National Development Plan published a few weeks ago.
Apart from the relative complexity of the CDM and
relative simplicity of the biodiversity “like-for-like”
offsetting approach, “offset accounting” appears to be
the biggest challenge to the broader effective rollout of
environmental offsets.
Offset
accounting will
be based on
MRV
IN CONCLUSION…
It appears clear that there is a bright and
extremely exciting future for MRV in the context
of sustainable development in general and
environmental management in particular.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION