relevant trade-related developments on cotton · changes in cotton mill use 2015/16 24.3 million...
TRANSCRIPT
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4th DEDICATED DISCUSSION OF THE
RELEVANT TRADE-RELATED
DEVELOPMENTS ON COTTON
José Sette
International Cotton Advisory Committee
Geneva
27 November 2015
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SUMMARY
1. Introduction
2. Production
3. Trade
4. Consumption
5. Prices
6. Direct Government Assistance
7. Stocks
8. Comparison 2003/04 to 2014/15
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15
PRICE (Cotlook A Index)
US cents/lb
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WORLD PRODUCTION & MILL USE million tons
Production
Mill Use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
94/95 99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
Accumulated surplus 2010/11-
2014/15: 13.4 million tons
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12
16
20
24
28
80/81 90/91 00/01 10/11 20/21
WORLD PRODUCTION (million tons)
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WORLD PRODUCTION
0
10
20
30
90%
million tons Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
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China 23%
India 27%
USA 13%
Pakistan 8%
Brazil 6%
Australia 2%
Uzbekistan 4%
Franc. Africa 5%
Turkey 3%
Other 9%
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY 2015/16
23,1m tons
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SHARE OF TRADE IN WORLD PRODUCTION
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
Exports Production Share
million tons share of exports
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USA 32%
India 12%
Australia 7%
Brazil 11%
CFA Africa 11%
Uzbekistan 7%
ROW 20%
2014/15
COTTON EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
7.7 million tons
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COTTON EXPORTS: 2013/14 TO 2015/16 Five Largest Exporters and Africa
million tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
US India Brazil Uzbekistan Australia Africa
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AFRICA’S TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
BurkinaFaso
Mali Côted'Ivoire
Benin Cameroon Chad ROA
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
million tons
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COTTON IMPORTS
4.4 5.8 6.1
5.3 1.8 1.2
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
05
/06
07
/08
09
/10
11
/12
13
/14
15/1
6
World less China Chinamillion tons
-22%
9.7
7.3
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CHANGES IN COTTON IMPORTS
2015/16
7.3 million tons
1996/97
6.1 million tons
7 Countries: 34% 7 Countries: 63%
China 13%
Bangladesh 2%
Turkey 5%
Indonesia 7%
Vietnam 1%
Thailand 5%
Pakistan 1%
ROW 66%
China 14%
Bangladesh
12%
Turkey 8%
Indonesia 9%
Vietnam 14%
Thailand 3%
Pakistan 3%
ROW 37%
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WORLD COTTON MILL USE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/21
million tons
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CHANGES IN COTTON MILL USE
2015/16
24.3 million tons
1996/97
19 million tons
7 Countries: 70% 9 Countries: 86%
China 23%
India 15%
Pakistan 8%
USA 13%
Turkey 6%
Brazil 4%
Indonesia 2%
ROW 29% China
30%
India 23%
Pakistan 9%
Turkey 6%
Bangladesh
4%
Vietnam 5%
USA 3%
Brazil 3%
Indonesia 3%
ROW 14%
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CHINA CONSUMPTION AND WORLD SHARE
US cents/lb
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16, for
Consumption Share
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COTTON EXPORTS: 2015/16 to 2020/21 Five Largest Exporters and Africa
million tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/21
US India Brazil Uzbekistan Australia Africa
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-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%74
/75
79
/80
84
/85
89
/90
94
/95
99
/00
04
/05
09
/10
14
/15
Season highest value
Season lowest value
CHALLENGE: PRICE VOLATILITY Cotlook A Index: Difference with respect to season average
2015/16: August-October 2015
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CHALLENGE: COMPETITIVE PRICING
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15
Cotlook A Index
Source: Cotton Outlook Ltd.
US cents/lb
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27 29
27 26 24
0
20
40
60
80
1960
1971
1982
1993
20
04
2015
0
10
20
30
40
million tons market share (%)
WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION
AND MARKET SHARE OF COTTON
2020
2025
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DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO
COTTON PRODUCTION
• Direct support to production
• Border protection
• Crop insurance subsidies
• Minimum support price mechanisms
• Input subsidies
• Transportation subsidies
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DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
AND PRICES
1.65
1.00
0.88
0.91
0.71
0.4
1.1
1.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13
US$ billion A Index (US$/lb)
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WORLD PRODUCTION UNDER
DIRECT ASSISTANCE
0
10
20
30
40
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13
Without Assistance With Assistance
76%
million tons
Average With Assistance: 55%
83%
47%
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CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE
Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-150
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
million tons
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2015 CHINESE RESERVE SALES thousand tons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31 8/7 8/14 8/21
Offered Sold
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WORLD ENDING STOCKS
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
World-less China China S/U
million tons
Stock-to-Use Ratio
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GROWTH IN WORLD COTTON MILL USE
3.1%
-0.5%
-2.0%
6.0%
2.8% 2.0%
3.1%
1.1%
9.8%
5.9% 6.3%
0.3%
-11.0%
6.8%
-3.0%
-7.4%
3.4%
1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
-12.0%
-7.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
1.5%
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COMPARISON 2002/03 – 2014/15
2002/03 2014/15 % CHANGE
Production (m tons) 19.6 26.2 +34
Yield (kg/ha) 651 785 +20
Exports (m tons) 6.6 7.7 +17
Mill Use (m tons) 21.3 24.2 +14
Ending Stocks (m tons) 9.5 21.9 +131
Stock/Use Ratio (%) 0.45 0.90 +102
Fiber Market Share (%) 39.9 28.1 -30
Direct Assistance (US$ billion) 4.2 10.4 +148
Price (US cts/lb) 55.4 71.0 +28