relationships between the pacific decadal oscillation and ...... · 2015 calendar year ... a sneak...

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National Weather Service New Mexico Meteorological Drought Status and Weather/Climate Outlooks Drought Monitoring Work Group 10:00am April 21, 2015 National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM http://weather.gov/abq

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Page 1: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

New Mexico Meteorological

Drought Status and

Weather/Climate Outlooks

Drought Monitoring Work Group

10:00am April 21, 2015

National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM

http://weather.gov/abq

Page 2: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

April (1-18) 2015 Precipitation:

Page 3: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update

March 1, 2015 April 1, 2015

Page 4: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update

(just to make us all more depressed!)

April 1, 2015 April 21, 2015

Page 5: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

April 21, 2015 Snow Depth

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Page 6: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

March 2015 Precipitation:

Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)

Statewide average

89% of normal

Page 7: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

March 2015 Precipitation Rank: 64th Driest

Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)

Page 8: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

March 2015 Precipitation by CD

Page 9: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)

NM Precipitation: 141% Normal

Page 10: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)

NM Precipitation Rank: 19th Wettest (+0.81”)

Statewide Average 141% of normal

Page 11: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)

NM Precipitation: 108% Normal

Page 12: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)

NM Precipitation Rank: 42nd Wettest (+0.38”)

Statewide Average 108% of normal

Page 13: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

12 Month (April 2014 – March 2015)

NM Precipitation Rank: 35th Wettest (+1.40”)

Statewide Average 110% of Normal

Page 14: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

24 Month (April 2013 – March 2015)

NM Precipitation Rank: 44th Wettest (+0.66”)

Statewide Average 102% of Normal

Page 15: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

36 Month (March 2012 – February 2015)

NM Precipitation Rank: 24st driest (-4.72”)

Statewide Average 89% of Normal

48 months: 10th driest…60 months: 9th driest

Page 16: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Regional Drought Status (April 14th) Focus for most significant drought continues over

California and portions of Oklahoma & Texas

Page 17: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

New Mexico Drought Status: April 14th ~62% of NM still in moderate to severe drought status

(~19% severe)

Page 18: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

New Mexico Drought: 3 Month Change

19% of NM in severe drought

62% of state is in moderate to severe

drought

No extreme drought (since Mar 3)

Last time no extreme drought

Mar 1, 2011

Some Improvement

NW/W/portions of E

Page 19: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Extended

Weather/Climate

Outlooks

Page 20: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

3 Month Loop of Weekly SSTs/Anomallies

4 week change

Page 21: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Page 22: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Forecaster/Model consensus continues to

support El Niño conditions through the summer

~70 chance of El Niño

conditions continuing

through the Summer; ~60

percent chance through

the Autumn

El Niño Advisory

Page 23: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Model consensus continues to support

El Niño conditions through Autumn

El Niño Advisory

Page 24: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

CPC May 2015 Precipitation Outlook

Page 25: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

CPC May 2015 Temperature Outlook

Page 26: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 – Jul 2015)

Precipitation Outlook

Page 27: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 - Jul 2015)

Temperature Outlook

Page 28: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook!

Sep-Nov

Dec-Feb

Page 29: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced in partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States

Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Seasonal Outlook (Apr 16 – Jul 31)

Page 30: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Last week map 4/14/2015

Suggested changes this week?

Page 31: Relationships between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ...... · 2015 Calendar Year ... A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook! Sep-Nov Dec-Feb . National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Brian Guyer:

[email protected]

Chuck Jones:

[email protected]

www.weather.gov/abq