relationships between the pacific decadal oscillation and ...... · 2015 calendar year ... a sneak...
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National Weather Service
New Mexico Meteorological
Drought Status and
Weather/Climate Outlooks
Drought Monitoring Work Group
10:00am April 21, 2015
National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM
http://weather.gov/abq
National Weather Service
April (1-18) 2015 Precipitation:
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NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update
March 1, 2015 April 1, 2015
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NRCS/USDA Snowpack Update
(just to make us all more depressed!)
April 1, 2015 April 21, 2015
National Weather Service
April 21, 2015 Snow Depth
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
National Weather Service
March 2015 Precipitation:
Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)
Statewide average
89% of normal
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March 2015 Precipitation Rank: 64th Driest
Average Precipitation: 0.65” (-0.08”)
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March 2015 Precipitation by CD
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2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation: 141% Normal
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2015 Calendar Year (Jan 2015 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 19th Wettest (+0.81”)
Statewide Average 141% of normal
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2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation: 108% Normal
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2015 Water Year (Oct 2014 – Mar 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 42nd Wettest (+0.38”)
Statewide Average 108% of normal
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12 Month (April 2014 – March 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 35th Wettest (+1.40”)
Statewide Average 110% of Normal
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24 Month (April 2013 – March 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 44th Wettest (+0.66”)
Statewide Average 102% of Normal
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36 Month (March 2012 – February 2015)
NM Precipitation Rank: 24st driest (-4.72”)
Statewide Average 89% of Normal
48 months: 10th driest…60 months: 9th driest
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Regional Drought Status (April 14th) Focus for most significant drought continues over
California and portions of Oklahoma & Texas
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New Mexico Drought Status: April 14th ~62% of NM still in moderate to severe drought status
(~19% severe)
National Weather Service
New Mexico Drought: 3 Month Change
19% of NM in severe drought
62% of state is in moderate to severe
drought
No extreme drought (since Mar 3)
Last time no extreme drought
Mar 1, 2011
Some Improvement
NW/W/portions of E
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Extended
Weather/Climate
Outlooks
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3 Month Loop of Weekly SSTs/Anomallies
4 week change
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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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Forecaster/Model consensus continues to
support El Niño conditions through the summer
~70 chance of El Niño
conditions continuing
through the Summer; ~60
percent chance through
the Autumn
El Niño Advisory
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Model consensus continues to support
El Niño conditions through Autumn
El Niño Advisory
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CPC May 2015 Precipitation Outlook
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CPC May 2015 Temperature Outlook
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CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 – Jul 2015)
Precipitation Outlook
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CPC Spring/Summer (May 2015 - Jul 2015)
Temperature Outlook
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A Sneak Peak: Fall & Winter Precip. Outlook!
Sep-Nov
Dec-Feb
National Weather Service The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced in partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States
Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Seasonal Outlook (Apr 16 – Jul 31)
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Last week map 4/14/2015
Suggested changes this week?
National Weather Service
Brian Guyer:
Chuck Jones:
www.weather.gov/abq