relationship and consistency between bea’s industry and national economic accounts
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Relationship and Consistency between BEA’s Industry and National Economic Accounts. Jiemin Guo OECD-NBS Workshop Beijing, China September 21-24, 2007. Highlights. Benchmarking National Accounts to Economic Census Data is fundamental step in preparing BEA estimates - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Relationship and Consistency between BEA’s
Industry and National Economic Accounts
Jiemin GuoOECD-NBS Workshop
Beijing, ChinaSeptember 21-24, 2007
www.bea.gov 2
Highlights
Benchmarking National Accounts to Economic Census Data is fundamental step in preparing BEA estimates
BEA has made significant steps toward a more fully integrated set of National and Industry Accounts
U.S. statistical system has rich economic data sets on income and expenditures to prepare current-period National Accounts
www.bea.gov 3
Benchmark I-O Accounts
Benchmark I-O accounts prepared in four broad steps
Step 1. Estimate output controls Step 2. Estimate inputs and value
added Step 3. Estimates final uses and
domestic supply Step 4. Balance the make and use
tables.
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Input-Output Make Table (1997, billions of dollars)
Mining ConstructionManufacturing
ProductsTrade
Transportation and Utilities
Services Other
Mining443 10 1 1 455
Construction1 670 671
Manufacturing1 1 3,703 39 36 4 3,784
Trade2 15 1,411 5 139 1,572
Transportation and Utilities 20 1 785 2 1 809
Services55 1 30 6,324 2 6,412
Other 6 1 4 75 24 1,050 1,160
445 754 3,730 1,486 865 6,526 1,057 14,863
COMMODITIES
TOTAL COMMODITY OUTPUT
INDUSTRIES
TOTAL INDUSTRY OUTPUT
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Input-Output Use Table (1997, billions of dollars)
Total Commodity Output = Intermediate Industry Purchases
+ Final Uses
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Input-Output Use Table (1997, billions
of dollars)
Total Industry Output = Intermediate Industry Purchases
+ Value added
Industry Output Commodity Output
Natural Resource
and Mining
Construc- tion
Manufac- turing
Transpor- tation and
Utilities Trade Services Other
Total Interme-
diate Uses
Personal Consump-
tion Expendi- tures
Gross Private Fixed
Invest- ment
Change in Business Inventory Exports Imports
Govern- ment GDP
Natural Resource
and Mining 96 6 270 60 9 57 12 510 36 23 4 32 -87 -1 445
Construc- tion 1 1 7 6 6 43 8 72 506 176 682 754
Manufac- tured Products 69 179 1,363 72 97 397 24 2,201 987 555 38 516 -765 199 1,529 3,729
Transpor- tation and Utilities 19 17 164 99 9 161 13 482 273 10 1 61 -13 51 383 865
Trade 14 59 216 19 37 82 4 431 840 107 5 62 20 21 1,055 1,486
Services 78 107 487 140 436 1,472 23 2,743 3,409 169 2 129 -260 84 3,783 6,527
Other 1 24 2 11 38 2 78 -18 -51 12 99 -6 943 979 1,057
Total Inter-mediate Inputs 277 370 2,531 398 605 2,250 86 6,517 5,572 1,320 62 899 -990 1,483 8,346 14,683
Employee Compen- sation 55 255 722 206 546 1,986 886 4,656
Indirect Business Tax 17 6 45 42 232 303 1 646
Other Value Added 106 40 487 162 190 1,871 187 3,043
Total Value Added 178 301 1,254 410 968 4,161 1,073 8,345
455 670 3,784 808 1,573 6,415 1,158 14,683
INDUSTRIES
TOTAL INDUSTRY OUTPUT
COMMODITIES
TOTAL COM-
MODITY OUTPUT
VALUE ADDED
FINAL USES (GDP)
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Estimate Output
Commodity and industry output controls form perimeter of table
Primarily economic census based BEA augments data
Areas not covered by Census Imputations Misreporting Non-filers
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Estimate Intermediate Inputs and Value Added
Intermediates based on input category controls Census data on groups of commodities purchased by
each industry (e.g., materials consumed) Variety of additional data from other Federal
statistical agencies, trade associations, and other sources
Value added estimates Compensation and taxes on production and imports,
less subsidies based on economic census data Gross operating surplus is a residual estimate in
benchmark (initially); it is “reconciled” with data on industry-distributions of business income from National Accounts.
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Estimate Final Uses and Domestic Supply
Final uses are estimated using two methods Direct method from economic census data Indirect method: “commodity flow” method
used when direct information is not available; based on ratios of domestic supply
Finalize expenditure estimates through “reconciliation” with National Accounts comparison of National Accounts time series
with “best-level” from benchmark
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Example of Commodity Flow using Census Data (1997, in millions of dollars)
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) = Domestic Supply * Commodity Flow
3548 = 3899 * 0.91
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Balance the I-O tables
Initial estimates do not necessarily lead to a balanced table (i.e., industry and commodity output do not necessarily equal)
The make and use tables are balanced by adjusting “free” cells (i.e., cells that are not based on Census data) Traditionally, the benchmark use table balanced
with a bi-proportional scaling procedure The 2002 benchmark table incorporates a
generalized least squares approach
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Benchmarking BEA’s National Accounts
The balanced benchmark I-O use table is incorporated into the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)
Benchmark I-O estimates helps set the levels for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Private Fixed Investment (PFI), and government consumption expenditures and investment
Benchmark I-O provides weights for preparing estimates of changes in private inventories and the type-of-product detail for state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment
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Benchmarking BEA’s Annual Industry Accounts (AIAs)
Estimates from the Benchmark I-O accounts and NIPAs are incorporated into the AIAs
Balanced make and use tables form the basis for preparing the annual I-O accounts
Annual I-O accounts control to major expenditure components in the NIPAs
Industry distributions of Gross Domestic Income are used as initial extrapolators for annual value added
NIPA price deflators are used to prepare quantity and price indexes in the GDP-by-industry accounts
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BEA’s Annual “Feedback” Loop
Investigation into differences between final use estimates from the Annual I-O accounts and NIPAs
Balanced annual I-O framework provides a cross-check on NIPA annual extrapolations of final uses
Objective is to inform NIPAs on the levels of final expenditures during “non-benchmark” years
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Relationships Among BEA’s National and Industry Accounts
.
GDP-by-industry accounts
Revised 1997 Benchmark I-O accounts
NIPAs
Annual I-O accounts
Distribution of VA based on revised 1997 BM; VA growth based on GDI growth
Distribution of VA based on revised 1997 BM; VA growth based on GDI growth
GDP based on Expenditures and income approaches only.
Early info from 2002 Econ Census will be incorporated
into relationship 7.
VA consistent with that of GDP-by-industry.
1a
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Conclusions
Importance of Benchmarking BEA’s National and Industry Accounts
BEA has taken important steps toward fuller integration; however, we recognize limitations in moving too quickly in this area (e.g., better current-period income and expenditure data v. industry data)
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Questions or Comments