reinventing companies, governments, why aren’t there...

11/12/12

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Connection Science: Reinventing Companies, Governments,

and Society in the Wake of Big Data

Alex Pentland MIT

Image: Be5encourt et al

Financial crashes… Digital Mobs… Cyberattacks…

Why aren’t there

Sustainable Digital Systems?

11/12/12 Copyright alex pentland 2012

The root problem is that Adam Smith and Karl Marx

Only had half the story


Society isn’t made up of markets, classes, parties, or professions.

It is made up of billions of individuals and interactions, and the details

ARE IMPORTANT

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Connection Science

going beyond markets and classes

Andrew Lo MIT Sloan

Financial Connections   Increased interconnectedness of financial insCtuCons (banks,

hedge funds, brokers, and insurance companies) amplified systemic problems and served as a major factor in the Financial Crisis of 2007-‐2009

Cascades •  Recent work shows that, significant aggregate volaClity can result from micro

variability, and provides a framework for the analysis of the relaConship between the network structure of an economy and its aggregate volaClity

Network representaCons of two symmetric economies:

DiversificaCon argument holds.

An economy where one sector supplier of all other sectors:

Sectoral shocks don’t average out.

Asu Ozdaglar, MIT LIDS Daron Acemoglu, MIT Econ

Sustainable Investment

some people isolated from info poor decisions some people are in echo boxes fads and bubbles


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Copyright alex pentland 2012

InformaCon Flow

Return on Investmen

t Social vs n

on-‐social investors

ROI for 2.7 Million Investors, 1 Year

Isolated

Echo chamber

Connections and Productivity

Engagement: Density of sharing of informaCon within group

ExploraCon: HarvesCng New Ideas outside of group

Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved

Breakthrough Idea of the Year

Engineering Connections

Fixing things by changing the connections

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Discovering Connections


The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek

Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland

Patterns of Buying The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek

iPhone Android


Patterns of Health The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek

HIV

diabetes


Designing Cities for High GDP, Low Crime

Starbucks

Extra Cops

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Demand

Top 10 Internet of Things Product – NY Times

Supply Designing Mobility Systems Designing Purpose-Based

Organizations 40th Anniversary of the Internet Grand Challenge

Pickard, Pan, Rahwan,Cebrian,Madan,Crane,Pentland Copyright alex pentland 2012

Tuning Social Networks Dynamics Predict Social Media Success 1,015 Social Network Deployments

Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved

density clustering reciprocal

deMontjoye, Pentland

Synchronous `Complex Contagion’

Asynchronous `Simple Contagion’

Asynchronized Synchronized Asynchronized Synchronized Asynchronized Synchronized

Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved

Tuning For Productivity

Average Call Handle Time

Engagemen

t:f Face-‐to-‐Face Network

Productivity correlated with group engagement

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Changing coffee break structure produced:

20% decrease stress $15M / year savings

Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved Copyright alex pentland 2012

Tuning connections by `nudges’ Get isolated users engage others

Get echo chamber users explore outside

Financial Tuning:

6% Increase ROI for 2.7 M Investors

Nudge Deployment

Ret

urn

on In

vest

men

t Information Flow


Day Number

echo chamber InformaCon flow

sweet spot InformaCon flow


Personal Data is the fuel drive smart cites and new

services…

But who can we trust with this data?

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The New Deal on Data first proposed by Alex Pentland, 2008


Now building the world’s first open source implementation In collaboration with

World Economic Forum World Wide Web Consortium Telefonica

Resulted in: EU Data Human Rights US Data Bill of Rights

What Are Trust Networks? like the SWIFT inter-‐bank network


YOU Service Provider

Personal Information Questions and Answers

Legal `Shadow’ enforces rights and obligations

Code IS Contract.

•  Secure Distributed Iden>ty: OpenID Connect, organic biometrics.

•  Interoperability: All of the data is in one place in a well-‐defined format..heterogeneous encrypCon

•  Auditability: User can verify what data is read and what data about him leaves the system.

•  Privacy-‐Preserving Computa>on: Only answers no raw data. The sensiCve computaCon on your data is done within your PDS.

•  Distributed Compu>ng: Leverages the data from mulCple PDSes in a distributed and privacy-‐preserving fashion.

openPDS

Toward A Sustainable Digital Ecology

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•  Open public data is expected to boost EU’s economy by €40 billion Euros each year

•  We aim at exploiCng the potenCal of (open) big data, through the creaCon of a plajorm to share living data and open data among research, industrial and insCtuConal partners and extract value from them.

•  We use Tren>no as the pilot territory, because of its highly commi5ed Public AdministraCon

•  We involve all the main industrial actors that can provide Big Data over the territory: DolomiC Energia, Autobrennero, Poste Italiane, TrenCno TrasporC

•  By involving the populaCon in the process of creaCng and exploiCng data, we sense the territory

Data from private companies and ProvenCal Authority

Tren>no Open Living Data Project (TOLD)

Applica>on scenarios:   Mobility:

•  Online efficient private traffic •  Public transportaCon on the fly route

balancing   Safety:

•  DetecCon and support in dangerous situaCons (e.g. fires, avalanches, etc.)

  Health: •  RecogniCon and predicCon of

epidemic spread   Urban & Local business planning:

•  Understand economically depressed areas)

•  Help companies to plan investment

•  A joint project between

Data from individuals

Mobile Territorial Lab •  Understand the needs and the behaviour of users.

•  Provide individuals mobile phone equipped with a sensing middleware to collect the data generated to be analyzed (starCng community: young families with newborns)

•  Short term outcomes: 1.  Developing and tesCng a new model

of DATA OWNERSHIP

2.  Understanding the dynamics of people’s needs

3.  Understanding people’s interac>ons

in the generated social networks

A joint project between:

Connection Science and Engineering at MIT

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Forbes, 8/10, Mining Human Behavior

http://connection.mit.edu http://media.mit.edu/~pentland [email protected]

reinventing companies, governments, why aren’t there...

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