regus business confidence index apr2011 report
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Gearing for Growth
Results rise to meet expectations for global businesses
Regus Business Confidence Index – Issue 4 – April 2011
Global business optimism, having undergone a slight decline in 2010, has now surged
ahead, according to the latest half-yearly Regus Business Confidence Index survey. The
regular global survey shows a significant increase in the proportion of firms reporting a rise
in revenues and profits, as well as a growing alignment between future outlook and actual
results, with real revenues coming into alignment with previous surveys’ predictions.
The survey also reports departmental spending mainly on the rise, showing that
companies are keen to invest in catching the wave of economic recovery. However, there
is one notable exception to this trend – property costs. Having been caught out by
inflexible commercial property arrangements during the recent economic downturn, firms
remain committed to scrutinising and, where possible, reducing fixed premises costs in
favour of more flexible workspace solutions that can easily scale as growth is achieved.
This reflects previous Regus surveys which have shown a trend away from fixed office
working towards more flexible working practices.
Management Summary
New research by Regus shows that expectations expressed in October 2010 by 61% of respondents
that their revenues would grow in the following year, have been confirmed, with 50% of companies
reporting revenue growth in March 2011. This contrasts with previous editions of the Regus global
survey, where predictions of revenue growth were not being met by actual rises.
This positive outlook is matched by predicted rises in departmental spending this year. 47% of
companies expect to increase their marketing spend; 48% will invest more in sales; and 33%
envisage putting more into product development
However, there is one area of departmental spending that is expected to experience little growth or
even actual decline – the property department.
The report reveals 81% of companies globally intend to reduce or freeze their property or premises
costs this year. This result indicates a strong will on the part of businesses to enthusiastically drive
growth, but at the same time steer clear of incurring unnecessary fixed costs related to under-used
or unused premises space.
The Regus Business Confidence Index, which analyses aggregate positive forward-looking
statements reveals that global optimism has grown 25 points since autumn 2009.
Globally 41% of companies are also reporting that revenue growth is closely mirrored by profit
growth - a positive indicator that economic advance is mostly solid with a majority of companies
investing on the basis of increasing profitability.
Most companies (54%) believe that the full momentum of the economic recovery will take place in
the latter half of 2011 or the first half of 2012. This prediction highlights that expectations for the peak
of recovery have slipped a little to the end of 2011, rather than the first quarter of 2011.
Geographical Highlights
Asian giants continue to lead growth with 60%+ of companies experiencing both revenue and profit
growth in the past twelve months in China and India. China takes the lead with 72% of companies
reporting revenue growth compared to 67% in India. The trend repeats itself in the profits outlook,
where 62% of Chinese companies report profits rising compared to 60% of Indian firms.
Germany and Belgium are close behind, however, with 64% of German and 61% of Belgian
companies reporting revenue growth. The proportion of companies experiencing profit growth over
the past year is also positive, at 54% in Germany and 55% in Belgium.
At the other end of the scale we find Japan, in contrast with other Asian countries, with a low
proportion of companies reporting profit growth at 23%, and Spain where only 18% of companies
reported profits rising. Nevertheless these results are highly positive when compared to the October
iteration of the survey where Spanish profit growth was negative (-21%) and Japan only had 6% of
companies experiencing profit increases.
Optimism is highest in China, Belgium, Germany and India and lowest in Spain. The UK and the
USA remain towards the lower end of the optimism scale with other western economies such as
France and the Netherlands.
Optimism growth in the last six months has been high in Japan (+36 points) and Spain (+33 points)
indicating that although conditions for business are not yet optimal, a significant improvement has
been achieved. It is worth noting that due to natural disaster and nuclear hazard Japanese optimism
may have taken another turn for the worse after the collection of this data.
Introduction
Reports globally confirm that the economic recovery is advancing, Asian giants continue on their high growth
path as Western Economies recover from the downturn, but governments warn that the speed of recovery is
not as fast as hoped.1 Nevertheless, the differing conditions that economies face affect their outlook for the
coming year with the IMF predicting 4.2% global growth for 2011; developed countries are expected to grow
at half that pace, whereas and India and China are expected to move faster at more than 6%.2
In Asia, potential effects of the Japanese tsunami and earthquake disaster are not expected to excessively
impact the bilateral trade with China , although Japan is China’s largest source of imports particularly in the
high-tech automotive products arena. Effects on the Eurozone are also regarded as negligible.3 China's
industrial activity, is reported by Markit to have risen in March after a slower February. Positive indication of
the success of government’s policies to contain inflation without affecting growth was found in the slowing of
input and output prices sub indices growth.4 India remains positive with the sharpest growth in the services
sector since July 2010 being recorded in February, whilst manufacturing remained unchanged since the start
of the year.5
In the Eurozone, Markit’s PMI highlights that economic activity continues to expand at a rate of growth which
is second only to that recorded in July 2007 with manufacturing taking the lead (although the services sector
also expanded). Germany and France fared particularly well in March, while the situation in the rest of the
currency zone was reported unchanged or weaker than February. Output prices rose for the eighth month
running keeping inflation close to high February levels. 6 In particular the UK government reports that
inflation will remain between 4% and 5% this year before dropping to its 2% target in 2013. Mr Osborne,
UK Chancellor, has also highlighted that the pace of growth has not been as rapid as expected and the
Budget indicates that unemployment is expected to rise to 8.3% in the last quarter of
the
2011.7
The UK is not alone in bemoaning the slow speed of recovery in the last year - US GDP has only grown only
2.8% instead of the original government projection of 3.2%. Lower consumer spending and a fall in demand
for long-lasting consumer goods exports are partially to blame for this figure, contrasting with Germany
where the IFO Institute found in February that growing export demand is boosting business confidence.8 In
spite of this, the USA labour market appears to be recovering with the advance unadjusted insured
unemployment rate down to 3.4% during the week ending March 12th compared to 4.1% a year before.9
1 Grant Thornton, IBR, 2011, PwC , Growth re-imagined, 2011; 2 1 IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2010). Estimates for shares of the world economy made on a purchasing power parity basis. 3 Reuters, Global recover marches on, prices soar in Europe, 24th March 2011 4 Markit, HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI, 24th March 2011 5 Markit, HSBC India Services PMI, 3rd March 2011 6 Markit, Flash Eurozone PMI, 24th March 2011 7 The Daily Mail, Economic Recovery is taking longer than we expected admits Osborne, 24th March 2011
8 The Financial Times, US economic recovery weaker than thought, 25th February 2011; Reuters, Global recover marches on, prices
soar in Europe, 24th March 2011 9 United States Department of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, March 24th 2011
In South America, high levels of confidence are reported by Grant Thornton’s IBR (International Business
Review) and the Mexican government is bullishly raising its growth forecast for 2011 on the basis that strong
domestic demand will fuel economic momentum. Ernesto Cordero, Mexico’s Finance Minister is reported to
have declared that Mexican economy will expand 4%-5% in 2011.10
2011: where prediction and outcome meet
Now in its fourth edition, the Regus Business Confidence Index survey has found that optimistic business
expectations are at least being matched with the reality of revenue increases. Compared to the revenue
growth levels recorded a year ago in April 2010, 38% more firms have achieved their objective in April 2011
(50%). In late 2009 the Business Confidence Index survey found that only 55% of firms expected to
experience a rise in revenues in the following year. Of this modest group of optimists many must have been
disappointed as only a 19% total of firms could report a revenue rise a year later in October 2010.
Similarly in early 2010 only 12% of companies reported a rise in revenues and fully 64% optimistically
expected a rise in revenues. Six months later only 19% reported a revenue increase, but a year on and
finally the 50% of companies actually recording a revenue increase begins to align with the 64% expecting
to achieve it a year earlier. This alignment looks even closer if we consider that 6 months ago, 61% of
companies expected a revenue rise within the next year and half way through the period 50% have already
achieved this.
The Regus Business Confidence Index Report
The current economic climate is nevertheless exceedingly volatile with unpredictable events such as the
natural disasters that blighted Australia and Japan in the past few months adding instability to what is a
period of slow recovery in Western Economies, and a period of great but also extremely speedy, and
therefore difficult to manage, growth in emerging economies. In order to align their plans for the coming
twelve months with global sentiment and trends, businesses rely on timely and realistic information from peer
companies around the globe.
The Regus Business Confidence Index Survey was devised specifically with this objective in mind : to
provide businesses with up-to-date information on the views and confidence of other businesses around the
globe to inform their future decisions. The survey is based on over 17,000 responses from businesses
around the world. The pool of respondents is highly representative of senior managers and business owners
and is broadly representative of industries in each geographical region. Companies in 80 countries were
asked about their revenues and profits over the past year, about their intentions to invest in specific
departments within their organisation and about their revenue expectations for the next 12 months.
10 Bloomberg, Cordero Says Mexico’s 2011 GDP May Expand Up to 5% on Domestic Consumption, 22nd March 2011
Revenues and profits around the globe
Globally revenue and profit growth were found to be roughly aligned with 50% of companies reporting a
revenue increase and 41% declaring that profits were on the rise. This is an important indication that rates
of growth are sustainable and therefore that the recovery is overall strong enough to result in improved
profitability for more and more businesses if they are able to ‘read’ the global market and react accordingly.
China and India continue their course of remarkably fast growth with the former in the lead. An enormous
72% of Chinese businesses reported a rise in revenues in the past year and 62% noted an increase in
profits. In India also 67% of companies recording revenues rising was matched by 60% of firms where profits
rose, indicating that these emerging economies are harnessing growth while containing overheads. This
contrasts widely with Japanese results which indicate the second lowest score of rising-profit companies
(23%) after Spain (18%). China and India are also optimistic about their future revenues as nine out of ten
Indian companies (89.5%) expect their revenues to rise in the coming year and 80.5% of Chinese companies
expect the same.
I expect my company revenues to rise in the next twelve months
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Japan
UK
ND
Australia
FR
Spain
Belgium
USA
Global Average
China
DE
Mexico
Canada
SA
India
Close behind these vibrant economies we find Germany, which has been benefiting from strong export
demand. Although reports indicate that confidence has slipped slightly since February due to concerns over
the possible consequences of the earthquake in Japan and unrest in the Middle East,11 the survey found that
64% of companies recorded a rise in revenues and of 54% a rise in profits in the past year. Apart from
11 The Financial Times, German Business unruffled by the Japan quake, 25th March 2011
Belgium, which also reports profitability increases for 55% of companies, the rest of the Eurozone is less
profitable, with Spain confirming its place as country with the lowest proportion of rising-profit companies
(18%) and France (32% ) also straggling.
In the UK and the USA, where the
economic slowdown is proving
harder to shake off than initially
hoped, around a third of companies
report their profits increased in the
last year. Over two fifths of
companies in both Australia and
Canada also reported a rise in
profits
Profits and revenues risen in the past year
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Japan
Spain
Mexico
UK
USA
FR
Global Average
SA
ND
Australia
Canada
Belgium
DE
India
China
The Regus Business Optimism Index
In every edition, the Regus Business tracker presents an updated Business Optimism Index. This index, a
measurement formed on an aggregate of positive forward-looking statements combining year-to-date
revenue and profit trends with views on the expected economic upturn in the coming six months, aims to
provide businesses with a single point of reference of the survey’s key findings. Its benchmark average was
set at 100 in the first publicly published edition of the Regus Business tracker in September 2009.
It is immediately evident that overall
optimism has climbed up the scale
by 25 points and now, at 125, is at
its peak since the first edition in
October 2009, as well as being
some 31 points up on its lowest
trough in April 2010. This positive
forward indicator provides a strong
endorsement for the recovering
global economy and provides solid
grounds for businesses to enjoy a
rosier outlook.
The Regus Business Optimism Index- Global Average
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011
Unsurprisingly, countries that have achieved more
satisfying results in the past 12 moths are also more
bullish about the future, with China (155), Belgium (139),
Germany (135) and India (134) topping the scale for
optimism. At the other end of the scale we find Spain
(92), the UK (108) and Australia (118), the latter lately
affected by natural disaster and the slowing of the Asia
Pacific region. The USA remains close to, if slightly
below, the global average at 119 points, although the
increase in optimism in the region is 32 points up on six
months ago, confirming Grant Thornton reports which
show that business leaders in the USA are more
optimistic that recovery will take hold in the next six
months.12
Investing in growth, but cutting property costs
The latest Regus research uncovered an important strategic trend and identified that a positive proportion of
companies globally are keen to invest in growth, starting from increasing sales (41%) and marketing (36%)
budgets, and even investing more in the creation and launch of new products (21%). More interesting still,
however, is the evident intention of companies to hold true to the lesson learnt during the economic
downturn and avoid making property or premises investments that may become underused and expensive
fixed costs.
This downward pressure on property costs is consistent with findings from previous Regus global surveys,
particularly a trend away from fixed premises working and towards more flexible working practices, along
with an enthusiasm across the globe to employ more part-time employees and working mothers. If attitudes
towards fixed premises working had remained as enthusiastic as in the past, then a growing global economy
combined with depressed rentals and an increase in new staff employment would be expected to generate
increased investment in traditional commercial property, not less. 13
While in a few economies we find a very modest increase in premises is planned, a majority of companies
intend to downscale with the exception of Canada that plans to make no changes to premises budgets.
Spain (-28%) and Japan (-21% ) are the most likely to reduce their premises costs shortly followed by the
Netherlands (-14%) and the UK (-12%) where businesses are also being very careful about incurring fixed
property costs. Even where they exist, plans to increase premises expenditure are much less pronounced
12 Grant Thornton, IBR, 2011 13 Regus, Renewal and Recovery, October 2009; Regus, Taking the Pulse of the Global Recovery, April 2010; Regus, People Power,
October 2010;
than plans to increase sales and marketing or product development budgets with a modest 9% of Chinese
businesses the most likely to expand their premises.
On the other hand sales budgets will be increased ranging from 64% of companies in Mexico to 21% in the
UK. Marketing departments globally can expect more budget, but this is particularly the case if they are in
China or India (58%), South Africa or Mexico (44%). There is also investment in new products on the cards
for many businesses, with China leading (44%), and Spain (6%t) and the UK (7%) stragglers in this field.
Net increase of departmental spending
-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%
China
FR
Australia
India
DE
SA
Canada
Mexico
Global Average
Belgium
USA
UK
ND
Japan
Spain
Property/Business Premises Sales Marketing Product management and development
Optimism and size correlation
Overall fewer small businesses have experienced profit or revenue growth over the past twelve months with
only 46% of small companies realising an increase in revenues compared to 65% of large businesses.
Similarly only 36% of small companies have experienced a profit increase compared to 61% of large
businesses. This, however, has not dampened their enthusiasm as the proportion of companies expecting a
rise in revenues is equal (77%) in all three segments.
I expect my revenues to rise in the next 12 months- :
SMALL 0-49
employees
MEDIUM 50-249
employees
LARGE 250+
employees
77% 77% 77%
Revenues and profits increase in the last year by size of business
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
SMALL
MEDIUM
LARGE
Revenues Profits
Size does, however, seem to impact future budget allocation. More large businesses are inclined to reduce
their premises or property costs (-12%) indicating that unused or underused premises are regarded as a
particularly heavy burden by larger businesses whose size impacts their flexibility and agility in reacting to
the volatile recovering market. By reducing fixed premises costs, large businesses can achieve some portion
of that agility which characterises smaller businesses. Small firms are also keen to reduce property costs
with -4% wishing to break free of unnecessary property expense.
Impact of size of business on intention to cut or increase premises costs
-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
SMALL
MEDIUM
LARGE
In spite of less satisfying results than large businesses on the profit and revenue growth front, small
businesses are more keen to invest in sales and marketing than large businesses. 41% of small companies
plans to divert more budget to sales, and 39% to marketing, in the coming year compared to 36% and 23%
of large businesses, once again giving proof of that entrepreneurial spirit that characterises smaller firms.
Larger businesses (25%) are instead a little more likely than smaller firms (20%) to invest extra budget into
product management and development, highlighting that they are willing to take on long-term investments in
equipment and R&D which smaller businesses may have difficulties in funding after a long downturn and in
light of the difficult business lending conditions experiences by this segment globally.14
14 The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, January 2011, The European Central Bank; Trends in Lending, January 2011, Bank of England;
The January 2011 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, January 2011, The Federal Reserve Board.
Country Highlights
Country Profit
rise
Revenue
rise
Increased
sales budget
Increased
marketing
budget
Property cut Expect revenue
increase in the next
12 months
UK 31% 38% 12% - 25% of
large
businesses
63%
USA 37% 44% 9% - 11% of
large
businesses
France 32% 45% 14% of large
businesses
Germany
54% 64% 45%
China
62% 72% 58% 58%
India
60% 67% 61%
Belgium
61% 55% 5%- 37% of
large
businesses
Netherlands
52% 34% 34% 14% - 16% of
small
businesses
Spain
18% 32% of large
and of small
businesses
75%
South Africa
37% 50% 14% of large
businesses
Japan
23% 25% 21% - 32% of
large
businesses
Australia
46% 53% 32% 33%
Canada
44% 53% 85%
Mexico
26% 64% 44% 4%
Conclusion
With profits and revenues rising across the board, it is not surprising to find that global business optimism
has reached a peak since the bleak conditions of late 2009. As a result of this optimistic mind set, companies
are reconsidering their investment strategies and deciding to channel budget into different areas that they
judge will help them catch the wave of economic recovery.
In particular businesses are keen to invest more in sales and marketing departments, upon whose skills and
activities they will rely to take full advantage of economic recovery. Firms globally also revealed the intention
to invest in the development and management of new products revealing that where capital is available or
loans are achievable, there is the expectation that benefits will be long-term.
The notable exception to this enthusiasm for investment is the issue of premises and property costs. Aside
from emerging economies, which are growing at breakneck sped and needing to accommodate new staff
faster than they ever imagined, the majority of world businesses is intent on reducing premises costs
regarded as a fixed expense which is often unnecessary and underused.
By cutting down on premises costs businesses can easily adapt to the changing economic landscape and
manage unexpected events such as temporary peaks in growth and sudden reduction of activity without
wasting desk and office space as well as the lighting, heating and cooling associated with each desk
position. Fortunately savvy businesses have taken from the downturn an important lesson of agility and are
making use of the more flexible workspace arrangements on the market.
Methodology
Over 17,000 business respondents from the Regus global contacts database were interviewed during
February 2011. The Regus global contacts database of over 1 million business-people worldwide, is highly
representative of senior managers and owners in businesses across the globe. Respondents were asked
about their recent revenue and profit trends, along with their future views on a number of issues including
plans for investment in various departments. The survey was managed and administered by the independent
organisation, MarketingUK.
About Regus
Regus is the world’s largest provider of workplace solutions, with products and services ranging from fully
equipped offices to professional meeting rooms, business lounges and the world’s largest work of video
communication studios. Regus enables people to work their way, whether it’s from home, on the road or from
an office. Customers such as Google, GlaxoSmithKline, and Nokia join hundreds of thousands of growing
small and medium businesses that benefit from outsourcing their office and workplace needs to Regus,
allowing them to focus on their core activities.
Over 800,000 customers a day benefit from Regus facilities spread across a global footprint of 1,100
locations in 500 cities and 86 countries, which allow individuals and companies to work wherever, however
and whenever they want to. Regus was founded in Brussels, Belgium in 1989, is headquartered in
Luxembourg and listed on the London Stock Exchange. For more information please visit: www.regus.com
To download a copy of the full report please visit www.regus.presscentre.com