regulatory impact analysis for the nox sip …...regulatory impact analysis for the nox sip call,...

United States Office of Air and Radiation EPA-452/R-98-003Environmental Protection Washington, DC 20460 December 1998Agency

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSISFOR THE NOx SIP CALL, FIP, AND

SECTION 126 PETITIONS

Volume 2: Health and Welfare Benefits

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSISFOR THE NOx SIP CALL, FIP, AND

SECTION 126 PETITIONS

Volume 2: Health and Welfare Benefits

Prepared by

Office of Air Quality Planning and StandardsOffice of Atmospheric Programs

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

December 1998

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This Regulatory Impact Analysis was prepared as a joint effort of the Office of Air QualityPlanning and Standards (OAQPS), and the Office or Atmospheric Programs (OAP). The preparation ofthis report was managed by Scott Mathias (EPA/OAQPS), Sam Napolitano (EPA/OAP), and RaviSrivastava (EPA/OAP). Both offices thank the many individuals and companies that made significantcontributions to this study.

OAQPS thanks John Bachmann (EPA/OAQPS), Tammy Croote (EPA/OAQPS), Robin Dennis(EPA/ORD), Ron Evans (EPA/OAQPS), Richard Haynes (USDA), Bryan Hubbell (EPA/OAQPS), NormPossiel (EPA/OAQPS), Rosalina Rodriguez (EPA/OAQPS), Allyson Siwik (EPA/Region 6), EricSlaughter (Association of National Estuary Programs), Larry Sorrels (EPA/OAQPS), Abt Associates,Inc., ASI, Dyntel, Mathtech, Inc., Pechan-Avanti Group, and Systems Applications International, Inc.

OAP thanks Kevin Culligan (EPA/OAP), Sarah Dunham (EPA/OAP), Gene Sun (EPA/OAP),Peter Tsirigotis (EPA/OAP), and ICF Resources, Inc.

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Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii

LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-1

Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-11.2 The Clean Air Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-2

1.2.1 Ozone Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-31.2.2 NOx Control and Ozone Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-41.2.3 Title IV NOx Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-61.2.4 New Source Performance Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-71.2.5 Reasonably Available Control Technology Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-81.2.6 Northeast Ozone Transport Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-8

1.3 Overview of the NOx SIP Call Rulemaking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-91.4 Relationship Between NOx SIP Call, FIP, and Section 126 Petitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-101.5 Statement of Need for the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-11

1.5.1 Statutory Authority and Legislative Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-111.5.2 Health and Welfare Effects of NOx Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-111.5.3 Need for Regulatory Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-12

1.6 Requirements for this Regulatory Impact Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-131.6.1 Executive Order 12866 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-131.6.2 Regulatory Flexibility Act and Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness

Act of 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-131.6.3 Unfunded Mandates Reform Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-141.6.4 Paperwork Reduction Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-151.6.5 Executive Order 12898 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-151.6.6 Health Risks for Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-15

1.7 Structure and Organization of the Regulatory Impact Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-161.8 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-18

Chapter 2. REGULATORY ALTERNATIVES2.1 Elements Considered in Developing Regulatory Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1

2.1.1 Type of Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12.1.2 Geographic Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-22.1.3 Potentially Affected Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-42.1.4 Stringency of Control Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-42.1.5 Effective Dates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-52.1.6 Emissions Budget Trading System Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-5

2.2 2007 Emissions Estimates for Air Quality Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6

Table of Contents (continued)

viii

2.2.1 Electricity Generating Unit (EGU) Point Source Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-72.2.2 Non-EGU Point Source Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-72.2.3 Area and Mobile Source Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-72.2.4 Natural Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-72.2.5 Summary of 2007 Emissions Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7

2.3 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12

Chapter 3. AIR QUALITY IMPACTS3.1 Ozone Air Quality Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1

3.1.1 Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23.1.2 Simulation Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23.1.3 UAM-V Model Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23.1.4 Converting Episode Estimates to Full-Season Profiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-43.1.5 Extrapolating from Monitored to Unmonitored Grid Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-53.1.6 Ozone Air Quality Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-6

3.2 PM Air Quality Estimates Using RPM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-73.2.1 Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-73.2.2 Simulation Periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-93.2.3 RPM Model Outputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-93.2.4 Development of Total PM Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-93.2.5 RPM PM Air Quality Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-11

3.3 PM Air Quality Estimates Using the S-R Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-113.3.1 Climatological Regional Dispersion Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-123.3.2 Development of the S-R Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-133.3.3 Fugitive Dust Adjustment Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-143.3.4 Normalizing S-R Matrix Results to Measured Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-163.3.5 Development of Annual Median PM2.5 Concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-173.3.6 S-R Matrix PM Air Quality Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-17

3.4 Nitrogen Deposition Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-193.5 Visibility Degradation Estimates Using RPM and the S-R Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-203.6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-23

Chapter 4. BENEFITS OF REGIONAL NOx REDUCTIONS4.1 Overview of Benefits Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-14.2 Issues in Estimating Changes in Health Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-10

4.2.1 Baseline Incidences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-114.2.2 Thresholds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-15

4.3 Ozone and PM Health-Related Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-164.3.1 Premature Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-174.3.2 Hospital Admissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-254.3.3 Bronchitis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-274.3.4 Acute Respiratory Symptoms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-294.3.5 Worker Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-324.3.6 Work loss days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-344.3.7 Minor restricted activity days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-35

4.4 Ozone- and PM-related Welfare Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-36

Table of Contents (continued)

ix

4.4.1 Commodity Agricultural Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-374.4.2 Commercial Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-394.4.3 Nitrogen Deposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-404.4.4 Household Soiling Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-434.4.5 Visibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-44

4.5 Total Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-484.6 Limitations of the Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-56

4.6.1 Projected Income Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-564.6.2 Unquantifiable Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-564.6.3 Potential Disbenefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-60

4.7 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-62

Chapter 5. BENEFIT-COST COMPARISONS5.1 Summary of Cost Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15.2 Summary of Benefits Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-25.3 Summary of Net Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-25.4 Limitations to the Benefit-Cost Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-35.5 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-5

Appendix A. QUANTIFIED UNCERTAINTY IN HEALTH AND WELFARE BENEFITSA.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1A.2 Underlying Sources of Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-2A.3 Quantified Uncertainty for Ozone-related Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-4A.4 Quantified Uncertainty for PM-related Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-4A.5 Statistical Uncertainty and Plausible Ranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-5A.6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-5

Appendix B. SUMMARY OF POPULATION-WEIGHTED AIR QUALITY METRICS . . . . . . . . . B-1

Appendix C. EMISSION SUMMARIES FOR BENEFITS-RELATED AIR QUALITY MODELING E-1

Appendix D. NONLINEAR CHEMISTRY AND FINE PARTICLE PRODUCTIOND.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1D.2 What this means for NOx Emissions and Sulfate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2D.3 Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-2

x

List of Figures

Figure 1-1Flowchart of Analytical Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 1-16

Figure 2-1States Included in EPA’s NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2-3

Figure 3-1UAM-V Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-3

Figure 3-2RADM-RPM Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-8

Figure 3-3S-R Matrix Air Quality Modeling Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-15

Figure 4-1Example Methodology of a Benefits Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-3

xi

List of Tables

Table ES-1Regulatory Alternatives by Source Category Groupings for the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . Page ES-2

Table ES-2Estimate of Emissions Reductions, Total Annual Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness in2007 of the EPA’s Selected Approach to NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page ES-3

Table ES-3Ozone, NOx, and PM Benefits from the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page ES-5

Table ES-4Summary of Benefits in 2007 by Major Category for the Selected Regulatory Alternative (millions of 1990 dollars) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page ES-6

Table ES-5Comparison of Annual Costs and Monetized Benefits in 2007 Associated with theNOx SIP Call (millions of 1990 dollars) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page ES-7

Table 2-1Emissions Inputs for Air Quality Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2-6

Table 2-22007 Base Case Projection Control Requirements by Major Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2-9

Table 2-3Summary of Regulatory Alternatives for the 2007 Air Quality Modeling:NOx Control Requirements by Major Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2-10

Table 2-4Percent Change from 2007 Base Case in 37-State NOx Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 2-11

Table 3-1Summary of UAM-V Derived Hourly Ozone Air Quality for Daylight Hours (7am to 7pm)During the Ozone Season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-6

Table 3-2Summary of RPM Derived PM Air Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-12

Table 3-3Summary of S-R Matrix Derived PM Air Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-18

Table 3-4Summary of 2007 Nitrogen Deposition in RADM Domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-19

List of Tables (continued)

xii

Table 3-5Summary of 2007 Visibility Degradation Estimates (deciviews) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 3-22

Table 3-62007 Population-Weighted Sum of Annual Mean Extinction: RPM Results . . . . . . . . Page 3-23

Table 4-1Examples of Potential Benefits of Air Quality Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-5

Table 4-2 Unquantified Benefit Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-7

Table 4-3Quantified and Monetized Health and Welfare Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-10

Table 4-4PM and Ozone Health and Welfare Concentration-Response Function Summary Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-13

Table 4-5Quantified Ozone-Related Health Effects Included in the Benefits Analysis . . . . . . . . . Page 4-18

Table 4-6Quantified PM-Related Health Effects Included in the Benefits Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-19

Table 4-7Summary of Mortality Valuation Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-22

Table 4-8 Range of Avoided Ozone-related Mortality Incidences and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-23

Table 4-9Avoided Long Term PM-related Mortality Incidences and Monetary BenefitsAssociated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-25

Table 4-10Sensitivity Analysis: Premature Mortality Benefits Using Avoided Short TermPM-related Mortality Incidences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-26

Table 4-11Sensitivity Analysis: Avoided Post Neo-natal PM-related Mortality Incidences . . . . . Page 4-27


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Table 4-12Avoided Ozone-related Hospital Admissions and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-28

Table 4-13Avoided PM-related Hospital Admissions and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-29

Table 4-14Avoided Incidences of PM-related Chronic and Acute Bronchitis and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-31

Table 4-15Avoided Incidences of Ozone-related Respiratory Symptoms and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-33

Table 4-16Avoided Incidences of PM-related Upper and Lower Respiratory Symptoms and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-35

Table 4-17Monetary Benefits from Ozone-related Avoided Lost Worker ProductivityAssociated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-36

Table 4-18Avoided PM-related Work Loss Days and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-37

Table 4-19Avoided PM-related Minor Restricted Activity Days and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-38

Table 4-20Quantified Ozone- and PM- Related Welfare Effects Included in the Benefits Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-39

Table 4-21Changes in Production of Commodity Crops and Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-41

Table 4-22Sensitivity Analysis: AGSIM Generated Monetary Benefits Due to Changes in Productionof Commodity Crops Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-42

Table 4-23Commercial Forest Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-43


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Table 4-24Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call from Avoided Costs of Nitrogen Removal in Eastern Estuaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-46

Table 4-25Monetary Benefits from Reduced Household Soiling Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-47

Table 4-26Monetary Benefits from Improved Residential Visibility Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-48

Table 4-27Monetary Benefits from Improved Visibility in National Parks in the Southeast Associated with the NOx SIP Call . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-50

Table 4-28Monetary Benefits Associated with Visibility Changes in National Parks Outside the Southeast in the NOx SIP Call Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-51

Table 4-29Total Quantified Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call,Incremental to the 2007 Base Case: 0.12 Trading Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-55


Table 4-31Total Quantified Monetary Benefits Associated with the NOx SIP Call,Incremental to the 2007 Base Case: Regionality 1 Alternative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-57



Table 4-34Sources of Uncertainty in the Benefit Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 4-61

Table 5-1Estimated Total Annual Cost of NOx SIP Call Alternatives in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5-1


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Table 5-2“Plausible Range” of Annual Quantified Benefits Estimates for NOx SIP Call Alternatives in 2007 (million 1990$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5-2

Table 5-3Estimated Annual Quantified Net Benefits for NOx SIP Call Aternativesin 2007 (million 1990$) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 5-3

Table A-1Point Estimates and Assumed Distributions of MWTP for Health and Welfare Endpoints in the NOx SIP Call Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page A-3

Table B-12007 Population-Weighted Sum of 1-Hour Ozone Predictions Above 124 ppb:Adjusted and Extrapolated UAM-V Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page B-1

Table B-22007 Population-Weighted Sum of 8-Hour Average Ozone Predictions Above 84 ppb: Adjusted and Extrapolated UAM-V Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page B-2

Table B-32007 Population-Weighted Sum of Annual Mean PM2.5 Predictions Above 15.04 µg/m3: RPM Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page B-3

Table B-42007 Population-Weighted Sum of Annual Mean PM10 Predictions Above 50.4 µg/m3: RPM Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page B-4

Table C-1Ozone Season Daily NOx Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:UAM-V Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-2

Table C-2Warm Season Annualized NOx Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:RADM-RPM Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-2

Table C-3Warm Season Annualized SO2 Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:RADM-RPM Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-2

Table C-4Cold Season Annualized NOx Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:RADM-RPM Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-3


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Table C-5Cold Season Annualized SO2 Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:RADM-RPM Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-3

Table C-6Annual NOx Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:S-R Matrix Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-4

Table C-7Annual SO2 Emissions by Major Sector and Regulatory Alternative:S-R Matrix Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page C-4

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Select List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

AFS - AIRS Facility SystemAIRS - Aerometric Information Retrieval SystemANPR - Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemakingbext - Total Atmospheric Light Extinction CoefficientBACT - Best Available Control TechnologyBEIS - Biogenic Emissions Inventory SystemCAA - Clean Air ActCAAA - Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990CAPMS - Criteria Air Pollutant Modeling SystemCASAC - Clean Air Scientific Advisory CommitteeCASTNet - Clean Air Status and Trends NetworkCB - Chronic BronchitisCO - Carbon DioxideCOI - Cost of IllnessCOPD - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary DiseaseC-R - Concentration-ResponseCRDM - Climatalogical Regional Dispersion ModelCV - Contingent Valuationdv - DeciviewECOS - Environmental Council of StatesEGUs - Electricity Generating UnitsEO - Executive OrderEPA - Environmental Protection AgencyFIP - Federal Implementation PlanH+ - Hydrogen IonH2O2- Hydrogen PeroxideHNO3 - Nitric Acidhr - HourIMPROVE - Interagency Monitoring for Protection of Visual EnvironmentsIPM - Integrated Planning ModelKg/ha - Kilograms Per Hectarekm2 - Square KilometerkWh - Kilowatt HourLAER - Lowest Achievable Emissions Rateslb - PoundLDs - Loss DaysLRS - Lower Respiratory SymptomsMCL - Maximum Contaminant Levelmills/kWh - Mills Per Kilowatt HourMM4 - Mesoscale Model, version 4mmBtu - Millions of British Thermal UnitsMm- MegameterMOU - Memorandum of UnderstandingMRAD - Minor Restricted Activity DaysMRRAD - Minor Respiratory Restricted Activity DaysMW - Megawatts

Acronyms and Abbreviations (continued)

xviii

MWh - Megawatt HoursMWTP - Marginal Willingness to PayNAA - Nonattainment AreaNAAQS - National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAPAP - National Acid Precipitation Assessment ProgramNCLAN - National Crop Loss Assessment NetworkNET - National Emission TrendsNH3 - AmmoniaNLEV - National Low Emission VehicleNMSCs - Nonmelanoma Skin Cancers NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOx - Oxides of NitrogenNO3 - NitrateNPR - Notice of Proposed RulemakingNPS - Non-Point SourceNSA - Nitrate, Sulfate, and Ammonium ComponentsNSPS - New Source Performance StandardsNSR - New Source ReviewO3 - OzoneOMB - Office of Management and BudgetOMS - Office of Mobile SourcesO&M - Operation and MaintenanceOTAG - Ozone Transport Assessment GroupOTC - Ozone Transport CommissionOTR - Ozone Transport Region PM - Particulate Matterppm - Parts Per MillionPRA - Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995PSD - Prevention of Significant DeteriorationRIA - Regulatory Impact AnalysisRACT- Reasonably Available Control TechnologyRADM - Regional Acid Deposition ModelRFA - Regulatory Flexibility ActRMF - Regional Model FarmRPM - Regional Particulate ModelSAB - Science Advisory BoardSBA - Small Business AdministrationSBREFA - Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996SNPR - Supplemental Notice of Proposed RulemakingSO2 - Sulfur DioxideSO4

2- - Sulfate IonSOA - Secondary Organic AerosolsS-R - Source-ReceptorTAMM - Timber Assessment Market Modeltpd - Tons Per Daytpy - Tons Per YearTSP - Total Suspended Particulates

Acronyms and Abbreviations (continued)

xix

µg/m3 - Micrograms Per Meter CubedUAM-V - Urban Airshed Model - Variable ScaleUMRA - Unfunded Mandates Reform ActURS - Upper Respiratory SymptomsUSDA - United States Department of AgricultureUV-B - Ultraviolet-B RadiationVOCs - Volatile Organic CompoundsWLDs - Work Loss DaysWTP - Willingness to Pay

TECHNICAL REPORT DATA(Please read Instructions on reverse before completing)

1. REPORT NO.

EPA-452/R-98-0032. 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Regulatory Impact Analysis for the NOx SIP Call, FIP, andSection 126 Petitions Volume 1: Costs and Economic Impacts Volume 2: Health and Welfare Benefits

5. REPORT DATE

Volume 1: September 1998Volume 2: December 1998

6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE

OAQPS/AQSSD

7. AUTHOR(S)

Office of Air Quality Planning and StandardsOffice of Atmospheric Programs

8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.

9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards & Office of Atmospheric Programs Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.

11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS

Director Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Office of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED

14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE

EPA/200/04

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

16. ABSTRACT

This report contains EPA’s estimates of the annual costs and benefits of the final NOx SIP call and theproposed NOx FIP and CAA section 126 petition actions. The report also contains a brief profile ofpotentially affected sources and potential economic impacts.

17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS

a. DESCRIPTORS b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS c. COSATI Field/Group

Regulatory impact analysis; benefits-costcomparison

Air Pollution control

18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

Release Unlimited

19. SECURITY CLASS (Report)

Unclassified21. NO. OF PAGES

20. SECURITY CLASS (Page)

Unclassified22. PRICE

EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE

regulatory impact analysis for the nox sip …...regulatory impact analysis for the nox sip call,...

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