Safety has ValueA free one-day conference

EUROCONTROL is a sho r t ( 5m in . ) t ax i j ou rney f rom Brusse l s Na t i ona l A i r po r t . See the map fo r de ta i l ed l oca t i on .

You can also get to EUROCONTROLby bus - STIB (Brussels public transport).

From Brussels National Airport take bus number 12 (Airport Express). The final destination for this bus is the city center of Brussels, therefore you should get off at theNATO stop for EUROCONTROL(NATO stop approx 10 mins from the airport). EUROCONTROLis a 5 min walk and signposted from NATO.

From the center of Brussels take either bus 21 or bus 63. Get off bus 21 at the NATO stop, EUROCONTROL is a 5 min walk and signposted from here. Bus 63 stops atthe rear of the EUROCONTROLpremises. This is the last stop. Both buses take approx. 30 mins from the center of Brussels.

You will find detailed bus route map and timetables on the STIB website (www.stib.irisnet.be).

Registration

Eurocontrol Headquarters

Brussels

29th November 2006

VenueThe conference is being hosted by Eurocontrol at their headquarters at Brussels (Rue de laFusee, 96, 1130 Bruxelles (Haren), Belgium) and all delegates must pre-register.

To Register:

asicba@dappolonia.it

Please e-mail your full details (Name, Company Name and address, email address and Job Title)to:

If you have any queries please contactArianna Perassi, or Elisabetta Noce, on +39 010 3628148,or Paul Hayes on +44 (0)2 08 564 6728, or paul.hayes@ascendworldwide.com.

Programme

08.30 – 09.30 Registration and Coffee

09.30 – 09.45 Welcome and Conference Overview

09.45 – 10.00 Welcome and an Overview of the Consideration of Safety in CBA.

10.00 – 10.30 The ASICBA Approach and Model – An Overview

10.30 – 11.00 Quantifying Risk.

11.00 – 11.30 Refreshments

11.30 – 12.00 Quantifying the Cost of Unsafety.

12.00 – 12.30 Introduction to the Decision Support System – DSS

12.30 – 13.00 The DSS in Action

13.00 – 14.30 Lunch

14.30 – 15.30 An Opportunity to try out the DSS.

15.30 – 16.00 Open Forum

16.00 - Summary, Future Developments and Closing.

D'Appolonia.

Eurocontrol.

NLR.

A detailed look at the risk side of the ASICBA model. The rationale for theuse of ESDs, End States and Impact Vectors.How ESDs work (supported by fault trees and Basian belief networks) and,importantly how the default probabilities used in the model have beendetermined.NLR.

A detailed look at the cost side of the model - how the Impact Vectors map tocost, the different impact of cost on the different stakeholders, how this ismodified by insurance and an explanation of the default cost figures.ECORYS.

A first look at the DSS program, the interface and how users will interact withit, the choice between using default or specific values and the presentation ofresults.D'Appolonia.

A demonstration of the DSS in action using one or two worked examples.

Delegates can try using the DSS for themselves with help from the ASICBAteam.

An opportunity for delegates to express their opinions and providefeedback. Moderator – D'Appolonia.

D'Appolonia.

ECORYS.

TheASICBAApproach

The Decision Support System (DSS) Tool

The application of cost-benefit analysis theory is widespread inthe transport sector and decisions about investments in newinfrastructure are often supported by such analysis.

However, cost-benefit analysis of safety measures is a relativelynew concept in the aviation community and decisions on safetyrelated matters are often taken without knowing precisely howsafety benefits relate to the costs they induce.

Now ASICBA has developed a methodology that allows abalanced trade-off between safety and investment costs to bemade. The main concept in the approach is that safety benefitcan be expressed in monetary terms, and thus can be comparedwith the associated costs of safety measures.

The model developed in ASICBA consists of three mainintegrated building blocks: a risk model, a cost model and thecost-benefit trade-off.

The DSS is an expert system that, through a friendly graphicalinterface based on Flash®, takes the user through a question andanswer phase to identify their needs. The user is then asked toquantify the parameters of the resulting model to make themmore meaningful to the specific case. Finally the DSS providesthe user with a Microsoft Excel® report that contains all data(either default or specified by the user) and formulas used tocalculate the final results.

The DSS is totally transparent and allows the user to see everystep and every assumption used in the calculation.

The DSS is comprised of:

ARisk Module including:

Quantified event probabilities contained in Event SequenceDiagrams (ESDs) and supporting Fault Trees and BasianBelief Networks

The ability to change any of the default probabilities to valueschosen by the user

ACost Module including:

Accident severity ranges (Impact Vectors) for each partyinvolved in an accident

24 detailed Heads of Cost linked to each Impact Vector

Default figures for each potential cost

An 'insurance model' taking into account the modifying effectof insurance

The ASICBA model has been incorporated into a web enabledDecision Support System (DSS) tool which takes the userthrough all the necessary steps in carrying out a Cost BenefitAnalysis.

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Who ShouldAttend

All those having an interest in air safety, includingAirlinesAirportsANSPsManufacutersRegulatorsService Providers

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The ASICBA approach and the DSS tool have beendeveloped in the context of commercial aviation safety butmany of the concepts that are used are believed to have awider application, especially in other modes of transport andwe would therefore welcome participation form areasoutside aviation.

Eurocontrol HeadquartersRue de la Fusee, 961130 Bruxelles (Haren)Belgium.

SAFETY HAS VALUEThe members of ASICBA are pleased to invite you to attend a one day conference, free of charge, wherewe will demonstrate a new unique tool The Decision Support System (DSS) that allows the cost andbenefits of safety to be quantified and incorporated in cost benefit analysis calculations.

For the first time the DSS allows safety benefits to be quantified financially and compared against thecost of planned safety measures.

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The ability to change any of the default costs or assumedseverity ranges

The CBAComputation including:

The ability to enter the costs of implementing a safety measure

The ability to enter the time horizon for the CBAcalculation

The ability to chose the way the CBAis presented

For more information about the ASCIBA Approach and Modelplease visit our website:

ASICBA (Aviation Safety Improvement using Cost BenefitAnalysis) is a two-year EU-funded research project under FP6which started on January 15th, 2005. The project builds on twoearlier EU-funded projects DESIRE andASTER.

Airclaims (Ascend)D'Appolonia (Project Leader)

GEASAR - GestioneAeroporto di Olbia Costa SmercaldaLOT - PolishAirlinesMeridianaNLR - NationalAerospace LaboratoryPoliMi - Politecnico di Milano

www.asicba.org

ECORYS Research and Consulting

TheASICBAProject

The partners in the project are:-