regional production, quarterly report on the daily ......a. segers r. timmermans meteo-france m....

ECMWFCOPERNICUSREPORT

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

RegionalProduction,Quarterlyreportonthedailyanalysesandforecastsactivities,andverificationoftheLOTOS-EUROSperformances

June–July–August2016

Issuedby:METEO-FRANCE/S.Guidotti

Date:28/10/2016

Ref:CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.3.1.2.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_Daily_Analyses_Report_v1CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.3.2.2.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_Daily_Forecasts_Report_v1CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.5.1.1.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_NRT_Verification_Report_v1

ThisdocumenthasbeenproducedinthecontextoftheCopernicusAtmosphereMonitoringService(CAMS).TheactivitiesleadingtotheseresultshavebeencontractedbytheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts,operatorofCAMSonbehalfoftheEuropeanUnion(DelegationAgreementsignedon11/11/2014).Allinformation in thisdocumentisprovided"asis"andnoguaranteeorwarrantyisgiventhattheinformationisfitforanyparticularpurpose.Theuserthereofusestheinformationatitssoleriskandliability.Fortheavoidanceofalldoubts,theEuropeanCommissionandtheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecastshasnoliabilityinrespectofthisdocument,whichismerelyrepresentingtheauthorsview.

CopernicusAtmosphereMonitoringService

CAMS50_2015SC1–LOTOS-EUROSProductionReport–JJA2016 Page3of22

RegionalProduction,Quarterlyreportonthedailyanalysesandforecastsactivities,andverificationoftheLOTOS-EUROSperformances

June–July–August2016

KNMIJ.DourosH.Eskes

TNOA.SegersR.Timmermans

METEO-FRANCEM.PithonM.PluJ.ParmentierJ.ArtetaS.GuidottiN.Assar

Date:28/10/2016

Ref:CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.3.1.2.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_Daily_Analyses_Report_v1CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.3.2.2.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_Daily_Forecasts_Report_v1CAMS50_2015SC1_D50.5.1.1.LOTOS-EUROS_201610_NRT_Verification_Report_v1



TableofContents

1. TheLOTOS-EUROSmodel 6

1.1Productportfolio 61.2Availabilitystatistics 61.2.1Indicators 61.2.2Problemsencountered 71.3Useofobservationsfordataassimilation 71.3.1Useofobservations–June2016 81.3.2Useofobservations–July2016 91.3.3Useofobservations–August2016 10

2. Verificationreport 11

2.1VerificationofNRTforecasts 112.1.1LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:ozoneskillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 122.1.2LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:NO2skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 132.1.3LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:PM10skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 142.1.4LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:PM2.5skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 152.2VerificationofNRTanalyses 162.2.1LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:ozoneskillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 172.2.2LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:NO2skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 182.2.3LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:PM10skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 192.2.4LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:PM2.5skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites 202.3AnalysisoftheLOTOS-EUROSperformancesoverthequarter 21



ExecutivesummaryTheCopernicusAtmosphereMonitoringService(CAMS,atmosphere.copernicus.eu/)isestablishingthecoreglobalandregionalatmosphericenvironmentalservicedeliveredasacomponentofEurope'sCopernicusprogram.Theregionalforecastingserviceprovidesdaily4-dayforecastsofthemainairqualityspeciesandanalysesofthedaybefore,from7state-of-the-artatmosphericchemistrymodelsand from themedian ensemble calculated from the 7model forecasts. The regional service alsoprovides posteriori reanalyses using the latest validated observation dataset available forassimilation.ThisreportcoverstheD50.3.1.2,D50.3.2.2andD50.5.1.1deliverablesrelatedtotheLOTOS-EUROSNearRealTimeProduction(NRT),forthequarterlyperiodendingAugust31st,2016.Verificationisdoneagainst in-situsurfaceobservations; theyaredescribed in theD50.1.1.2reportcoveringthesameperiod.Theverificationofanalysesisdoneagainstnon-assimilatedobservations.Duringthisquarter,thereliabilityoftheproductionsystemwasexcellent,therefore100%ofanalysisand forecast products arrived on time for ENSEMBLE calculation. Daily production was insuredwithoutanylackordelay.



1. TheLOTOS-EUROSmodel

1.1 Productportfolio

Item Forecast AnalysisDescription Forecast at surface, 50m, 250m,

500m, 1000m, 2000m, 3000m,5000maboveground

Analysisatthesurface

Availableforusersat 4:00UTC 10UTCforthedaybeforeSpecies O3, NO2, CO, SO2, PM2.5,

PM10, NO, NH3, NMVOC, PANs, Birch pollen at surface duringseason

O3, NO2*, CO*, SO2*, PM2.5*,PM10*, NO*, NH3*, NMVOC*,PANs*

Timespan 0-96h,hourly 0-24hforthedaybefore,hourly*Non-assimilatedspecies

1.2 AvailabilitystatisticsThe statistics below describe the ratio of days forwhich the LOTOS-EUROSmodel outputswereavailableontimetobeincludedintheENSEMBLEfields(analysesandforecasts)thatarecomputedatMETEO-FRANCE.TheyarebasedonthefollowingschedulefortheprovisionatMETEO-FRANCEof:• Forecastsdatabefore:05:30UTCforD0-D1(upto48h),07:30UTCforD2-D3(from49hto96h);• Analysesdata:before11:00UTC.TheseschedulesweresettomeettheITrequirementsforENSEMBLEproducts(nolaterthan8UTCfor0-48h,10UTCfor49-96hand12UTCforanalyses).

1.2.1 IndicatorsAvailability_model_ForecastQuarterlybasis

D0:100%D1:100%D2:100%D3:100%

Availability_model_AnalysisQuarterlybasis

D:100%



1.2.2 ProblemsencounteredNone.

1.3 UseofobservationsfordataassimilationPleaseseethenextthreepages.



1.3.1 Useofobservations–June2016

Day O3 NO2 NO SO2 C0 PM10 PM2.51 7,953 2 8,122 3 7,892 4 2,142 5 8,496 6 8,437 7 8,449 8 7,784 9 7,643 10 8,132 11 8,486 12 7,417 13 4,855 14 6,893 15 6,769 16 5,200 17 5,660 18 8,595 19 8,656 20 8,589 21 8,294 22 8,163 23 8,402 24 8,306 25 8,467 26 8,995 27 0 28 7,953 29 8,122 30 7,892



1.3.2 Useofobservations–July2016

Day O3 NO2 NO SO2 C0 PM10 PM2.51 0 2 0 3 0 4 3,861 5 6,299 6 3,113 7 8,589 8 8,676 9 8,359 10 8,227 11 9,094 12 8,676 13 4,701 14 8,726 15 0 16 0 17 0 18 0 19 0 20 3,999 21 8,622 22 8,588 23 8,348 24 0 25 0 26 275 27 8,504 28 8,631 29 0 30 8,961 31 8,372



1.3.3 Useofobservations–August2016

Day O3 NO2 NO SO2 C0 PM10 PM2.51 8,561 2 8,594 3 8,494 4 8,458 5 0 6 8,338 7 8,051 8 0 9 8,333 10 8,218 11 8,475 12 8,701 13 8,646 14 7,598 15 0 16 0 17 0 18 8,359 19 8,735 20 8,621 21 8,657 22 8,584 23 8,497 24 8,186 25 8,789 26 8,845 27 8,692 28 8,649 29 4,321 30 0 31 0



2. VerificationreportThisverificationreportcoversthequarterlyperiodendingAugust31st,2016.TheLOTOS-EUROSskillscoresaresuccessivelypresentedforfourpollutants:ozone,NO2,PM10andPM2.5.Theskillisshownfortheentireforecasthorizonfrom0to96h(hourlyvalues),allowingtoevaluatetheentirediurnalcycleandtheevolutionofperformancefromday0today3.TheforecastsandtheanalysescoveralargeEuropeandomain(25°W-45°E,30°N-70°N).Thestatisticalscoresthatarereportedaretheroot-mean-squareerror,themodifiedmeanbiasandthecorrelation.ThesurfaceobservationsthatareacquiredbyMETEO-FRANCEandusedforverificationaredescribedinD50.1.1.2coveringthesameperiod.

2.1 VerificationofNRTforecastsThefollowingfigurespresent,foreachpollutant(ozone,NO2,PM10,PM2.5):• Intheupper-leftpanel,theroot-meansquareerrorofdailymaximum(forozoneandNO2)orof

dailymean(PM10andPM2.5)forthefirst-dayforecastswithregardstosurfaceobservations,foreveryquartersinceDJF2014/2015,atargetreferencevalueisindicatedasanorangeline;

• In theupper-rightpanel, the root-meansquareerrorofpollutantconcentration forecastswithregardstosurfaceobservationsasafunctionofforecastterm;

• Inthelower-leftpanel,themodifiedmeanbiasofpollutantconcentrationforecastswithregardstosurfaceobservationsasafunctionofforecastterm;

• In the lower-right panel, the correlation of pollutant concentration forecasts with regards tosurfaceobservationsasafunctionofforecastterm.

The graphics show the performance of LOTOS-EUROS (black curves) and of the ENSEMBLE (bluecurves).



2.1.1 LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:ozoneskillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

TheRMSEforthedailymaximaofsurfaceozoneforthefirstdayforecastsseemstohavedeterioratedthisquarterforbothLOTOS-EUROSandtheensemblemedian,afactpossiblyassociatedwiththerelativelyhighvalues thatarenormallyprevailingduring thesummerseason.Compared to2015,performance ishoweverbetterandnowcomplieswith the reference target.RMSE for thewholeforecastingperiod isalsosomewhatbetter than for thesamequarter lastyear,but this isnotsoclearlythecasefortheMMB.Correlationcoefficientseemstohaveremainedatthesamelevels.Inall,theperformanceissimilartolastyear,withsignsofimprovement.



2.1.2 LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:NO2skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

RMSE for thedailymaxima for the firstday forecastshas improved thisquarter forboth LOTOS-EUROSand the ensemblemedian. Basedon this score, performance is thebest for both LOTOS-EUROS and the ENSEMBLE during the last 7 quarters. Compared to the same period in 2015,performanceisabitbetterasregardstheRMSEandhasremainedmoreorlessthesameasregardsthe MMB. The correlation coefficient seems to have largely remained the same with a smalldeteriorationinearlyhoursoftheday.Correlationcoefficientfortheensemblemedianhashoweveralsoimprovedcomparedtolastyear.



2.1.3 LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:PM10skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

RMSEforthedailyPM10meansforthefirstdayhasimprovedcomparedtothesameperiodlastyear(2015),byabout4μg/m3.Alsocomparedtothesameperiod,performanceisconsiderablybetterasregardsbothRMSEandMMB.RMSEhasbeen reducedby about2μg/m3onaverage,while theunderestimationoftheconcentrationsisnowmoremoderateandlesspronouncedinLOTOS-EUROSthanintheensemblemedianforthewhole4-dayforecastingperiod.Correlationcoefficientisalsoconsiderably better (by around 0.1 points, compared to 2015), but the same is true also for theensemblemedian,whichhoweverisconsistentlyhigherthanthatofLOTOS-EUROS.



2.1.4 LOTOS-EUROSforecasts:PM2.5skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

The dailymean RMSE of LOTOS-EUROS is about 4.5 µg/m3, only slightly higher than that of theENSEMBLEwhichisabout4µg/m3.Thehighestvaluesoccurduringtheeveningataroundmidnight,due to an underestimation of the observed concentrations, as supported by theMMBplot. Thisunderestimation is more pronounced in LOTOS-EUROS than in the ENSEMBLE. Correlation isconsistentlylowerforLOTOS-EUROSthanintheENSEMBLE,alsorevealingadifficultyinadequatelydescribingthenight-timeconcentrations.CorrelationsforPM2.5arehigherthanforPM10.



2.2 VerificationofNRTanalysesThefollowingfigurespresent,foreachpollutant(ozone,NO2,PM10andPM2.5):• Intheupper-leftpanel,theroot-meansquareerrorofdailymaximum(forozoneandNO2)orof

dailymean(PM10)fortheanalyses(solidline)andforthefirst-dayforecasts(dashedline)withregardstosurfaceobservations,foreveryquartersinceDJF2014/2015,atargetreferencevalueisindicatedasanorangeline;

• Intheupper-rightpanel,theroot-meansquareerrorofpollutantconcentrationoftheanalyses(solidline)andofthefirst-dayforecasts(dashedline),withregardstosurfaceobservationsasafunctionofforecastterm;

• Inthelower-leftpanel,themodifiedmeanbiasofpollutantconcentrationforecastsoftheanalyses(solidline)andofthefirst-dayforecasts(dashedline),withregardstosurfaceobservationsasafunctionofforecastterm;

• Inthelower-rightpanel,thecorrelationofpollutantconcentrationoftheanalyses(solidline)andof the first-day forecasts (dashed line),with regards to surface observations as a function offorecastterm.

Thegraphics show theperformancesof LOTOS-EUROS (black curves) andof theENSEMBLE (bluecurves).Thesuperpositionoftheanalysisscores(solidlines)andoftheforecastscores(dashedlines)computedoverthesameobservationdatasetishelpfultoassesstheaddedvalueofdataassimilation.



2.2.1 LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:ozoneskillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

RMSEforthedailymaximaisataboutthesamelevelasthereferencetargetandhasdeterioratedslightlysincelastquarter,somethingthathasbeenobservedbeforeandisprobablyrelatedtothegenerallyhigherozoneconcentrationsduringsummertime.Whatisworthnotingisalsothetendencyof LOTOS-EUROS to overestimate ozone concentrations during the morning and slightlyunderestimatethemduringlateafternoon.Correlationissomewhatbetterthisquarter.



2.2.2 LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:NO2skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

LOTOS-EUROS analyses did not use ground-based NO2 observations for the periods underconsideration. Differences between the analysed and forecast concentrations can be mostlyattributedtothefactthatnoC-IFSboundaryconditionswereusedduringthisquarterforthedailyanalyses.TheLOTOS-EUROSFCRMSEofdailymaximumvaluemeetsthetargetvalueforthisquarterwithacleartendencyforimprovementofthelastquarters,whilethediurnalprofilesgenerallyconveythesamepictureasdetailedintheprevioussetofgraphsforNO2.



2.2.3 LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:PM10skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

LOTOS-EUROS analyses did not use ground-based PM10 observations for the periods underconsideration. Differences between the analysed and forecast concentrations can be mostlyattributedtothefactthatnoC-IFSboundaryconditionswereusedduringthisquarterforthedailyanalyses.The LOTOS-EUROS FC RMSE of daily maximum value meets the target value with an unalteredperformancesincethepreviousquarter.



2.2.4 LOTOS-EUROSanalyses:PM2.5skillscoresagainstdatafromrepresentativesites

LOTOS-EUROS analyses did not use ground-based PM2.5 observations for the periods underconsideration. Differences between the analysed and forecast concentrations can be mostlyattributedtothefactthatnoC-IFSboundaryconditionswereusedduringthisquarterforthedailyanalyses.



2.3 AnalysisoftheLOTOS-EUROSperformancesoverthequarterTheforecastingperformanceoftheLOTOS-EUROSmodelwasquitesatisfactoryforthisperiodandshows clear signs of improvement over theprevious quarters, aswell as comparing to the samequarterlastyear(2015).Thiscanessentiallybeattributedtoanumberofbugsthatwerefixedoverthepastquarters.For the forecasts, RMSE of LOTOS-EUROS meets the target value for this quarter for all threecontrolledpollutants (i.e.O3,NO2 andPM10). Specifically forozone,performance shows signsofimprovementcompared to the sameperiodof2015,however there isa slight increaseofRMSE,possiblyassociatedwiththerelativelyhighvaluesthatarenormallyprevailingduringthesummerseason.ForNO2,performancehaseitherremainedconstantcomparedtothesameperiodlastyear(e.g. forMMB or correlation) or as has improved (e.g. RMSE), with a noted under-prediction ofobservedconcentrationsaroundnoon.ForPM10andPM2.5 forecastingperformance isgenerallybetter inmostaspectswhencompared to theperformanceof lastyear, somethingwhichcanbeattributed,atleastpartly,tothereintroductionoftheuseofCIFSboundaryconditions.The LOTOS-EUROS analysis performance for ozone has deteriorated slightly since last quarter asregards the calculation of the dailymaxima. LOTOS-EUROS tends to overestimate concentrationsduringthemorningandslightlyunderestimatethemduringlateafternoon.Correlationwashoweversomewhatbetterthisquarter.NO2andPMisnotassimilatedinLOTOS-EUROSyet.

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