REGIONAL OVERVIEW – ASIA 8 JANUARY 2019

At the start of 2019, there was a slight decline in theoverall levels of political violence and protest inSouth and Southeast Asia from late 2018. Still, theend of 2018 and beginning of 2019 was marked bylarge-scale political violence during the Bangladeshgeneral elections, a signiPcant increase in battlesbetween the Myanmar military and Arakan Army inMyanmar, and a spate of bombings in southernThailand tied to the separatist conSict.

Over the past three weeks, the main conSict inAfghanistan Afghanistan continued at a similar pace as earliermonths, with neither the Taliban nor jointAfghan/NATO forces making signiPcant gains.Fighting was most active in the provinces ofHelmand, Nangarhar, and Ghazni. Moreover, theIslamic State (IS) was essentially inactive over thepast few weeks, claiming only one attack inJalalabad city during that period. On the other hand,operations by both Afghan and NATO forcescontinued to target IS positions in their stronghold ofNangarhar province, and also to a lesser degree inKunar province. That being said, an unclaimed attackon 24 December targeting a Kabul compoundhousing the Ministry of Public Works and a nearbyNational Directorate of Security (NDS) o_cereportedly killed at least 43 combatants and included

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a suicide car bomb – a tactic often utilized by IS.

As a reaction to the relative stalemate characterizingthe war with the Taliban, reconciliation talks tookplace over two days in Abu Dhabi on 17-18 Decemberbetween representatives of the U.S., Taliban, andother countries. The talks were centered on thepossibility of U.S. withdrawal from the country. Whilethe talks themselves were kept private, a statementmade by the U.S. envoy said the talks wereproductive (Al Jazeera, 20 December 2018).Following the talks, unconPrmed reports werereceived from “unnamed” U.S. o_cials whichclaimed that a partial withdrawal of around 7,000American troops would occur over the followingmonths, surprising a number of parties, including theTaliban, who stated: “Frankly speaking, we weren’texpecting that immediate US response… we are morethan happy” (BBC, 21 December 2018). This comessoon after American President Donald Trumpannounced a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.

In PakistanPakistan, several incidents of political violencewere reported from across the country during thelast weeks of December and the Prst week ofJanuary. Increasing number of political violenceevents were recorded in Karachi including thetargeted killing of former Muttahida QaumiMovement-Pakistan lawmaker Ali Raza Abidi and twoparty workers of Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP). On 30December, after a brief exchange of gunPre, policerecovered and defused an IED mounted on a stolenmotorcycle by alleged members of Mufti Shakirgroup in Gulshan town in Karachi (Express Tribune,December 30, 2018).

Elsewhere, in Balochistan three incidents oflandmine and remote explosion resulted in threereported fatalities, including one Frontier Corps

o_cial, and three civilians injured, including anAchakzai tribal leader.

With the onset of winter, several provincesthroughout Pakistan have been facing increased loadshedding in gas and electricity by private providersand the government. The situation was particularlyacute in Sindh province, resulting in protests againstthe failure of the authorities to properly manage thegas supply in Jacobabad, Bhan Syedabad, Larkanaand other cities across Sindh.

On 24 December, an accountability court inIslamabad sentenced Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif to seven yearsof imprisonment and handed a Pne of 2.5 million USdollars in the Al-Azizia Steel Mills corruption case.The case was about setting up steel mills in SaudiArabia allegedly with corruption money (IndianExpress, 3 January 2019). The verdict promptedclashes between the police and PML-N supportersoutside the accountability court in Islamabad.Following the verdict, PML-N supporters stagedpeaceful protests in various cities in Punjab province.

In the contested Kashmir Kashmir region, a signiPcantnumber of cross-border clashes between Indian andPakistani forces were recorded across the Line ofControl (LoC), resulting in the reported killings ofseven people including security personnel andcivilians. The Pakistan military also reportedshooting down an Indian spy drone.

In IndiaIndia, militants continued to clash with stateforces in Jammu & Kashmir, reportedly leaving 15people dead. Six Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH)militants were allegedly killed during an armed clashwith security forces Pulwama district on 22December. Suspected militants were also involved in

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the murders of an off-duty Special Police O_cer(SPO) and the brother of a Sikh sarpanch. On 28December, masked youths stormed the Jamia Masjidin Srinagar city and raised pro-Islamic State slogans.

Elsewhere, security forces conducted a number ofraids in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh state againstmembers of Harkat-Ul-Harb-e-Islam, an organizationassociated with the Islamic State. Several suspectedmembers of the outPt were detained and weaponswere seized from their hideouts. Indian authoritiesallege that the group had planned attacks for NewYear’s Day as well as later in January. Meanwhile,militant violence involving Maoist rebels and militantgroups in the Northeast reduced during the lastweeks of 2018 compared to previous weeks.

Elections were held in several states. In Punjab,panchayat and sarpanch (village council and head ofvillage) elections were held leading to numerousincidents of political violence and demonstrations aswell as allegations of voter fraud and voterintimidation. In Tripura, by-poll municipal electionstook place on 27 December. There were few reportsof violence between political parties, including aclash between the Communist Party of India(Marxist) and BJP workers in Bishalgarh city.

The ongoing controversy over the Sabarimala templeissue paralyzed Kerala during the last weeks of 2018.Women and girls of menstruating age – consideredbetween 10 to 50 years – have traditionally beenbarred from entering the temple, until the SupremeCourt overturned the ban on the entry of women tothe temple (Al Jazeera, 4 January 2019). Hinduhardliners – supported by the Prime MinisterNarendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – haveviolently opposed the entry of women to the temple.During the end of December and beginning of

January, the Hindu right wing opposition turned moreviolent with many reported incidents of vandalismand rioting after three women managed to enter thetemple, despite the prolonged shutdown aiming tokeep women out.

SigniPcant unrest was also reported between theBJP and the Indian national Congress over the Rafalejet deal controversy related to the multi-billion USdollar purchase of 36 Pghter jets from France. BJPactivists staged a nation-wide protest campaignaccusing the Congress Party and its leader RahulGandhi of false propaganda, while Congress activistsstaged demonstrations and disrupted NationalAssembly meetings, demanding a reopening of theinquiry.

In Assam, 2019 started with widespread protestsagainst the Union government’s move to pass theCitizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016. The bill aims togrant Indian citizenship to Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists,Jains, Parsis, and Christians who Sed religiouspersecution in neighboring states. The timing of theprotests overlapped with Prime Minister NarendraModi’s visit to the state, as part of the Prst phase ofthe general election campaign (Assam Tribune, 6January 2019).

In BangladeshBangladesh, the ruling Awami League won alandslide victory in the general election on December30 amidst large-scale violence and claims of voterrigging. The three weeks leading up to the electionwere marred by political violence mainly between thesupporters of the two main parties, the AwamiLeague (AL) and the Bangladesh National Party(BNP) (for more on Bangladesh’s violentbipartisanism, see this past ACLED piece). A highnumber of clashes, as well as attacks on politicalrivals and party o_ces, were reported from across

the country, especially in Dhaka, Chittagong, Tangailand Rajshahi districts. Hundreds of people wereinjured and 37 fatalities were reported, most of whichoccurred on the day of polling. On 24 December themilitary was deployed in 389 upazilas and navypersonnel in 18 coastal upazilas across Bangladeshto maintain peace and law & order during elections.The number of recorded events signiPcantly droppedafter 30 December.

In NepalNepal, 2018 ended with Khambuwan MuktiMorcha (Samyukta), an armed outPt Pghting forseparate statehood in eastern hill districts for thepast eight years, surrendering weapons and pledgingpeaceful political activism. In addition, more than500 Nepali Congress Mahasamiti members launcheda signature campaign demanding that Nepal berestored as a Hindu state (Kathmandu Post, 17December 2018). In the Prst week of 2019, acontroversial lawmaker-elect of Rastriya JanataParty Nepal (RJPN), Resham Chaudhary, was swornin as a Member of Parliament. Chaudhary was themain accused perpetrator of the Tikapur massacreof 2015, which resulted in the death of eight policepersonnel and an infant. Despite being sworn in asan MP, Chaudhary has been and remains imprisonedsince he surrendered before the Kailali District Courton February 26, 2018 (Kathmandu Post, 3 January2019).

In Sri LankaSri Lanka, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the PrimeMinister ousted by President Maithripala Sirisena on26 October, returned to his position after 51 days ofpolitical turmoil. The overall number of reporteddemonstration events reduced during the last weeksof December and remained low in the Prst week of2019. However, some rioting by supporters of theUnited National Party (UNP) was reported shortly

after Wickremesinghe’s reappointment, as well asvandalism in places of worship during the last weekof December.

In MyanmarMyanmar, on 21 December, the Myanmar militaryannounced a four-month unilateral ceasePrecovering Kachin and northern Shan state (Radio FreeAsia, 21 December 2018). However, the ceasePredoes not cover Rakhine state. Subsequently, over thepast few weeks, Pghting between the Myanmarmilitary and the Arakan Army (AA) has increasedsharply in northern Rakhine state. On 4 January, theAA attacked four police outposts in Buthidaungtownship, reportedly killing 13 policemen. As well,Pghting between ethnic armed organizations hascontinued in Shan state; in Namtu township, theRestoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army-South (RCSS/SSA-S) and the Palaung StateLiberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army(PSLF/TNLA) continued to clash with each other.

In ThailandThailand, there has been an upsurge in suspectedseparatist violence in the south in recent weeks. Anumber of bombs exploded across Songkhla andNarathiwat provinces in the last weeks of December.The bombings are believed to be the work of theBarisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and are seen as anattempt to potentially destabilize the region prior tothe general election (Asia Times, 2 January 2019).While the military recently announced plans to holdthe general election in February, those plans appearto now be in question following the announcementthat the new king will be coronated in May (AsiaTimes, 4 January 2019). The prospect of violencesurrounding the election could be seen when acandidate of the newly established New Alternativeparty was shot and killed in Mukdahan province on27 December.

In the PhilippinesPhilippines, the Autonomous Region inMuslim Mindanao continues to be a locus of politicalviolence. On 27 December, seven Maute rebels werereportedly killed in a battle with the military inMaguindanao. Two factions of the Moro IslamicLiberation Front (MILF) also battled each other in aland dispute in Maguindanao, leading to fourreported deaths. Otherwise, clashes between twoclans in Basilan also led to several deaths. Theviolence comes as plans are underway for aplebiscite in late January to vote on the BangsamoroOrganic Law which would replace the AutonomousRegion in Muslim Mindanao with the BangsamoroAutonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and givegreater autonomy to the region (Rappler, 8 January2019).

Aside from political violence, a number of protestsoccurred across the region in the last weeks of 2018.In Indonesia Indonesia, across various provinces, pro-Papuaindependence activists staged protests to mark theanniversary of the start of the 1961 campaign by theIndonesian military to take over the former DutchNew Guinea (Radio New Zealand, 21 December2018). Amid calls for sovereignty in the Papuaregion, police detained over 100 activists, many fromthe West Papua National Committee (KPNB). InDecember, political violence and protest surroundingthe issue of Papua independence increased (TheDiplomat, 24 December 2018).

Protests in Cambodia Cambodia likewise increased over thepast few weeks with different labour groups callingfor better working conditions. A six-day protest washeld by workers from the Seduno Investment CamboFashion company in Phnom Penh. Land disputesalso led to protests when around 1,000 peopledemonstrated in Kandal province, calling for

compensation for their land which had been sold tothe Heng Development Company.

In MalaysiaMalaysia, several protests were staged calling forjustice in the death of a Preman during the Novemberriots at the SeaPeld Sri Maha Mariamman Hindutemple in Selangor (for more on this, see this recentACLED piece). Notably, on 6 January, Malaysia’s kingabdicated his throne, the Prst to do so since thecountry became independent in 1957 (BBC, 6January 2019). While a ceremonial position, the kingis seen as upholding the Malay-Muslim identity of thenation (South China Morning Post, 7 January 2019),and must approve all senior level governmentappointments (Channel News Asia, 7 January 2019).

In LaosLaos, in Savannakhet province, the policedestroyed the property of a Christian church andarrested seven people for conducting non-authorizedchurch services. The arrests reSect the scrutiny thatChristians in Laos often face as Christianity is seenas a foreign religion; authorized church services areoften monitored for anti-government sentiment(Radio Free Asia, 2 January 2019).

No political violence or protest events were recordedfor VietnamVietnam.

© 2019 Armed ConSict Location & Event Data Project(ACLED). All rights reserved.

Daniela PollmannDaniela Pollmann is the AsiaResearch Manager at ACLED. Inthis role she oversees the codingof political violence and protests inSouth and Southeast Asian

countries. Ms Pollmann holds aMA in ConSict, Security andDevelopment from the Universityof Sussex with focus on peaceprocesses. She has previous workexperience in the social sector inUganda and India where her work

focused on women empowerment, childprotection and anti-human tra_cking. She iscurrently stationed in New Delhi, India.

Elliott BynumElliott Bynum is an Asia ResearchManager with ACLED. Shemanages the coding of politicalviolence and protest events inSoutheast Asia. She is a Ph.D.candidate in InternationalRelations at American University.

Tom HartTom Hart is a Middle EastResearch Manager with the ArmedConSict Location & Event DataProject (ACLED), and a part-timebrewer and genealogist. Hereceived his BA in InternationalHistory from Carleton University in

Ottawa, where he focused on colonialrelationships, intercultural interaction, andgeocultural perspectives. Mr. Hart is currentlybased out of Ottawa, Canada, and is Suent inEnglish and French.

Tagged on:Afghanistan Bangladesh Cambodia India

Indonesia Kashmir Laos Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines SriLanka Thailand Vietnam

Daniela Pollmann, Elliott Bynum and Tom Hart

08/01/2019 Analysis, Asia, Regional Overviews

← Malaysia: 2018 Data Release

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