regional outlook for the horn of africa · 2018-03-12 · 02 regional outlook for the horn of...
TRANSCRIPT
OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016
HORN OF AFRICAREGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGIONRECOMMENDATIONS FOR HUMANITARIAN ACTION AND RESILIENCE
RESPONSE
02
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
Cover Photo:
3 February 2016, Ula Arba kebele, Ziway Dugda Woreda, Arsi zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia.
Hussein is resident in Ziway Dugda Woreda with a population of 149,000 people. About 82,000 people (55%) require emergency food assistance. The price of livestock has gone down by 80% while the price of cereals have increased three-fold.
“This drought is the worse we are experiencing in for 30 years”, says Hussein
Credit: OCHA/ Charlotte Cans
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
I.HUMANITARIANTRENDS:JULY–SEPTEMBER2016 4
II.REGIONALOUTLOOK:OCTOBER-DECEMBER2016 6
III.VULNERABILITYHOTSPOTS 8
IV. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS 9
CLIMATE 9
SOUTH SUDAN, GREAT LAKES 9
KENYA-SOMALIA 9
II. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS AND OUTLOOK 10
DRIVERSOFHUMANITARIANNEED 10
CONFLICT TRENDS AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 10
CLIMATE 14
ECONOMIC SHOCKS 16
III. HUMANITARIAN IMPACT 18
FORCEDDISPLACEMENTANDMIXEDMIGRATION 18
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT 18
CROSS-BORDERDISPLACEMENT 19
CLOSUREOFDADAABCAMP 21
MIXEDMIGRATION 21
PROTECTIONOFCIVILIANS 22
FOODINSECURITYANDMALNUTRITION 24
FOODINSECURITY 24
MALNUTRITION 27
COMMUNICABLEDISEASES 28
CHOLERAANDACUTEWATERYDIARRHEA(AWD) 29
IV. CONSTRAINTS TO RESPONSE 31
HUMANITARIANACCESS 31
VIOLENCE AGAINST HUMANITARIAN PERSONNEL, ASSETS AND FACILITIES 31
BUREAUCRATICIMPEDIMENTS 33
FUNDING 34
CERF AND POOLED FUNDS 34
V. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS 36
CONTENTS
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
Thisreporthasbeendevelopedcollectivelywithhumanitarianpartnersintheregiontoinformpreparednessandadvocacyefforts tomitigateandmanagehumanitarian risk in theHornofAfricaandGreat Lakesregion1.Itpresentsafour-monthtrendanalysisfromJunetoSeptember2016andahumanitarianoutlookfromOctober toDecember2016. It is thefifthreport in theseriesandupdates thepreviousscenarioreportwhichwaspublishedinApril2016.
I. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS: JULY – SEPTEMBER 2016
While violent incidents decreased in the last quarter during the rainy season (in keeping with the seasonal nature of protracted crises in the region), conflict continued to pose a significant threat to the safety and security of civilians across the region. In SudanreducedlevelsofgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentwerereportedlyconductedinthecentralareaofDarfurandinthesouthernstatesofSouthKordofanandBlueNile–the‘TwoAreas’.InSomalia,whilethenumberoffatalitiesfromconflictreducedinQ3ascomparedtoQ2,AlShabaabcontinuedtoperpetrateattacksinmanypartsofthecountry,aswellasagainsttheinternationalpresence,withagreaterfrequencyofmajorattacksinMogadishuasthecountrymovesclosertoelections.ViolenceinBurundialsodroppedsignificantlyinthesecondquarteroftheyear,buthightensionsandastalledpeaceprocesscontinuedalongsideapatternoflarge-scalehumanrightsviolations.However,inSouth Sudan,clashesinvariouslocationsacrossthecountry,includingheavyfightinginWauinJune,JubainJuly,andhotspotsacrosstheEquatoriasfromJulyonwards,ledtomorethandoublethenumberofconflictfatalitiescomparedtothepreviousquarteraccordingtoACLED.Thisledtoadeteriorationinthehumanitarianandhumanrightssituation,withwidespreadsexualviolenceandattacksonaidworkers.ThishasalsoresultedinanincreaseinthenumberofSouthSudaneserefugeesfleeingtoneighbouringcountries,pushingthetotalnumberofSouthSudaneserefugeestoover1million.Severefoodandnutritioninsecurityhasnowspreadbeyondtheconflictaffectedareas,withNorthernandWesternBarehGhazalandWarrapstatesbeingofparticularconcern.InEthiopia,anti-governmentprotestsbytheOromoandAmharaethnicgroupscontinuedwithreportsofcasualtiesamongprotestersand security forces. OHCHR has called upon the Ethiopian government to permit the deployment ofindependentobserversintothecountrytoaccessthehumanrightssituation.InKenya,tensionsaroundelectionstobeheldinAugust2017,whichhadledtoviolentprotestsintherecentpast,subsidedwiththedecisionoftheJointParliamentarySelectCommitteetoreformtheelectoralCommission.
El Niño’s impact continued to be felt in the region despite the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions since the end of the strong El Niño episode in May 2016.ThescaleandsizeofthedroughtemergencyinEthiopia,wheretheElNiñohashadthegreatestimpact,stilldwarfsthescaleofothercrisesintheregionintermsofthenumberofpeopleinneedofhumanitarianassistance,nownumbering9.7millionpeople-amoderatedecreasefrom10.2millionpeopleinJune.TheunprecedentedhumanitarianresponsebytheGovernmentofEthiopia,supportedbytheinternationalcommunity,offerssomelessonstoestablishablueprintforfutureaction.
1ThisreportincludesBurundi,Djibouti,EasternDRC,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Kenya,RwandaSomalia,SouthSudan,Sudan,UgandaandtheimpactoftheYemencrisisontheHorn
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
Economic shocks across the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region continue to primarily affect the most vulnerable and compound humanitarian needs. Last yearwitnessed a fall in global commodityprices(suchascrudeoil)andweakglobalgrowth,theeffectsofwhicharestillbeingfeltinto2016.Thiseconomicdownturnhasbeenexacerbatedbythesocio-politicalinstabilityplaguingcountriesintheEastAfricaregion,aswellasbytheeffectsofproductionlossesduetoElNiño.TheIMFrevisedthegrowthprojectionssubstantiallydownforsub-SaharanAfrica,reflectingchallengingmacroeconomicconditionsinitslargesteconomies,whichareadjustingtolowercommodityrevenues.InSouthSudan,thedeterioratingeconomicsituationiscompoundingtheimpactofconflictonfoodinsecurity.Theyear-on-yearinflationrateinAugust2016was730percent;thehighestintheworld.
Due to the convergence of climatic, conflict, and economic shocks, the number of food insecure people in the region2 facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC 3 and 4) levels, has doubled in the last 12 months from 11.0 million in September 2015 to 23.4 million people today.TheworstaffectedcountriesareEthiopia(9.7millionpeople),SouthSudan(4.79millionpeople),andSudan(4.42millionpeople).UNICEFreportsaheightenedmalnutritionsituationintheregionincludinganunprecedentednutritioncrisisinSouthSudan.SixoutoftheeightIGADcountriesintheregion(SouthSudan,Sudan,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Somalia(IDPs),andpartsofKenya)areonhighalertforacutemalnutrition.SouthSudan,NorthWestKenya(Turkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit)andSomalia(inparticularIDPsites)havecontinuedtoexperienceaseriousnutritionaldeterioration,whilst inEthiopia,highnumbersofpeoplecontinuetobeadmittedforacutemalnutrition,althoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimprovedduetotheaveragetoaboveBelg harvest.
Violence and rising food insecurity in South Sudan and Burundi has resulted in increased population displacement.Asof30September2016,thelargestrefugeeoutflowfortheregionwasof1.03millionrefugeesfromSouthSudan.ThemajorityofnewdisplacedhavefledSouthSudansincefreshviolenceeruptedinJubaon8July2016,includingover150,000peoplewhohavecrossedintoUgandasinceearlyJuly and approximately 32,000 South Sudanese have arrived into the Gambella region of Ethiopia inrecentweeks,seekingassistanceandprotection.ElsewhererefugeesarrivingintoSudanfromtheGreaterBahrElGhazalregioncitedseverefoodandnutritioninsecuritiesasdrivingfactors.InNorthernBahrelGhazaloneinthreechildrenaged6-59monthsarebelievedtobeacutelymalnourished.ThenumberofBurundianrefugeescontinuedtoincreaseexponentiallyto301,403despitereportedspontaneousreturnsof36,798.3PoliticalinstabilityandfoodinsecurityarebeingcitedbytherefugeesasbeingkeyreasonsintheirdecisiontofleetoTanzania.
The combination of new emergencies and resurging conflicts has increased the cumulative total number of refugees and asylum seekers in the East, Horn and Great Lakes to 3.6 million refugees,whichrepresentsa13percentincreasesincethebeginningofthisyear.AsaresultoftherecentinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugees,UgandaisnowthecountryhostingmostrefugeesinAfrica.Theregionalsohosts955,000Somaliand404,105DRCongorefugees,wholive inprotractedexilewith limitedprospectofdurablesolutionwithoutcommensuratesupportfromtheinternationalcommunitytomeettheirneeds.
TheGovernmentofKenyaannouncedinMaythatasaresultofsecurity,environmentalandeconomicburdens,itwouldcloseDadaabcamp,whichhousesover284,000Somalis,by30November2016.Thisstanceseemedtosoftenon25JunewithastatementbytheTripartiteCommission,whichinformedofareductionof150,000peopleinthecampbytheendof2016.Sincethebeginningofvoluntaryrepatriationin2014,almost30,000Somalishavereturned–24,000ofthemin2016.4On29Augusthowever,Jubaland
2TheregionincludesBurundi,Rwanda,Uganda,SouthSudan,Sudan,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Djibouti,SomaliaandKenya
3FollowingtheverificationexerciseinMakamba,32,729SpontaneousReturnswerereportedoutofwhommerely3,483claimedtohaveregisteredasrefugees.SeeRegionalUpdateBurundi#28http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php
4http://www.voanews.com/a/somalirefugeesleavingkenyaduetothreatsandpressureunsays/3480706.html
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
authorities in Somalia, announced the temporary suspension of voluntary returns due to the lack ofabsorptioncapacityforthereturnees,notablyinalreadydenselypopulatedareas,suchasKismayo.
Simultaneous disease outbreaks have affected the region in parallel with the El Niño weather events.Ofgreatestconcernaresome63,2205suspectedcasesofcholera and Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) across the region in2016alone,alongsideotherdiseases, includingyellow fever, measles, and chikungunya virus and kala-azar.SpikesinmalariacaseshavealsobeenreportedinBurundi,easternDRCandinSouthSudan,whereisthetopcauseofmorbidity intheIDPsandinthenon-conflictaffectedstateswith1.3million cases reported this year. The impact of these outbreaks and the high risk of contagion in theregion, particularly given the fluid populationmovements, requires appropriate interventions on keyissuessuchasvaccinationcampaigns;scale-upofaccesstosafewater,sanitationandhygieneservices;communitysensitizationincludingsettingacross-bordercoordinationmechanism;andimprovingsystemsofprevention,surveillance,controlandtreatmentofdisease.AjointIGAD/UNmulti-agencyproposalatanestimatedcostof$20millionisbeingfinalizedtoaddressthecholeraandchikungunyavirusoutbreaksandtheirriskfactorsintheManderaTriangle(ManderaKenya,BeletHaawoSomaliaandDolloAdoEthiopia)from September 2016 to September 2018 through immediate, medium and long-termmulti-sectoralapproaches.
The operating environment in conflict settings continues to deteriorate, especially in South Sudan. Data madeavailableduringthereportingperiodindicatedthat,in2015,South SudanovertookAfghanistanasthecountrywiththehighestnumberofattacksagainstaidworkers.AndanewlowofdepravitywasreachedattheTerrainHotel inJuba inJuly2016.Violenceagainstpersonnelandassetshashadatremendousadverseeffectonhumanitarianoperations. In July aloneasWFPandFAOwarehouseswere looted inJubaandseveralNGOscompoundswerelootedinLeer,causingmillionsofdollarsworthofdamageandloss.6TheoperatingenvironmentinSomaliacontinuestobeparticularlydifficult.InEthiopiathedroughtresponsehasexperiencedasignificantslow-downasaconsequencetheseprotests.FooddispatchesfromGovernmentwarehouses,whichhavebeenoperatingat25percentcapacityforthepastfewweeks,toAmharaandOromiawereimpacted.Therehasbeenadegreeofnormalizationoverthelastfewdays.
Both the climate induced humanitarian needs and conflict induced displacement continue to be underfunded.Asof30September,thehumanitarianrequirementstomeeturgenthumanitarianneedsacrosstheregioncurrentlystandat$6.7billion,ofwhichlessthanhalf(48percent)isfunded.Despitethelargenumbersofrefugees,theRefugeeResponsePlans(RRPs)arestillthemostpoorlyfundedhumanitarianappealsintheregion.TheRRPsforSouthSudan,BurundiandYementogetherrequirenearly$1.2billion,ofwhichonly24percenthasbeenfunded.TheSouthSudanRefugeePlanhasthelowestfundinglevelat20percent,whiletheYemenRRPreceived27percentbytheendofSeptember.TheBurundiRegionalRefugeeResponsePlan2016is37percentfunded.Migrationresponseandclimateadaptationfundsneedtobemoreeffectivelydeployedtoprovidedurablesolutions.
II. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016
Conflict in protracted settings such as Somalia, parts of Sudan, as well as South Sudan, is expected to intensify during the dry season (November onwards). Tensions related to the state formationandelectoral processes in Somalia could further exacerbate pre-existing inter-communal tensions, andleadtofurtherviolence.TherearealsoreportsthatAMISOMintendstolaunchanoffensiveagainstAlShabaabinLowerJubabeforetheimplementationoftheelectoralprocesswhichcouldadverselyaffectthe civilian population and further limit humanitarian activities.The situations in Burundi and South
5Includes18,102casesinDRC
6http://www.unocha.org/south-sudan
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
Sudan are likely to get worse. In Burundi, the Inter-BurundiDialogue stillexcludesmanyelementsoftheopposition,lesseningthechancesofapoliticalresolutioninthenearfuture,anddespiteUNSecurityCouncil approval for thedeploymentof additional policeofficers toBurundi, thegovernmenthasnotacceptedtheirdeployment.InSouth Sudan,RiekMacharremainsoutsidethecountryandexcludedfrompowerandsignificantdefectionsarebeing reported. If theSouthSudanese transitionalgovernment isunabletosupporttheprocessofreconciliation it is likelythatfurtherviolencemaybreakout,causingimmensesufferingtothecivilianpopulation.Continuedviolencewillalsogreatly impacthumanitarianprogrammingandobstructhumanitarianaccesstopeopleinneedwithdisastrousconsequencesforthecivilianpopulation.TheUNSecurityCouncilDespiteUNSecurityCouncilapprovalforthedeploymentofadditionalpoliceofficerstoBurundianda4,000strongprotectionforceinSouthSudantherespectivegovernmentshaveresistedtheseinitiativessofar.ElectionsintheDemocratic Republic of Congo(DRC)willbedelayedtillDecember2018accordingtotheCorneilleNangaa,headofthecountry’selectoralbody.TensionsaroundtheelectionsinDRChavealreadyresultedinviolence,accordingtoHumanRightsWatch,37protesters,sixpoliceofficers,andoneKabilasupporterwerekilled.ThishasfurtherdestabilizedtheGreatLakesregionandresultedinadditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborders.InKenya, politicalre-alignmentsaheadof2017electionsmaycreatenewsourcesoftensioninthecountry.TensionsinEthiopiaarealsoofgreatconcern.On9OctobertheGovernmentofEthiopiadeclareda6-monthsStateofEmergency.
On-goingconflictandethnically-motivatedviolenceintheEastAfricanregioncontinuestobecharacterizedbythedeliberatetargetingandharmofcivilians.Serious internationalhumanitarianandhumanrightslawviolationsareoccurringonacontinuousbasis.Withalackofaccountabilitymechanisms,thereisariskthatalarmingreportsofsexualviolence,suchasrape,gangrapeandsexualslaveryinSouthSudan,discoveryofnewmassgravesinBurundiandfurtherviolenceagainstprotestersinEthiopiawillcontinuetoemerge
The latest climate model from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.7 IGADICPACseasonalforecasthaspredictednormaltobelownormalrainfallfortheperiodSeptembertoDecember2016intheareashistoricallyaffectedbydroughtinducedLaNina such as 2010/11 and 1988. Thiswillmean additional drought for pastoral, agro-pastoral andseasonalcroppingactivitiesaswellasflooding.Theareasofconcernforbelowaveragerainfall includepastoralareasofEthiopia(South-Pastoralregionswhilethenorth-easternpastoralareasareseasonablynotexpectingrainfallintheforecastperiod);Kenya(EasternandNorthernareas);Djibouti(northernandcoastalareas);Somalia(mainlyinSomalilandandPuntland);andTanzania(northernpastoralandMountKilimanjaroareas).Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsectorwhichcouldleadtoincreasewaterlogging,possiblefloodingand landslides inwesternpartsofUganda,EthiopiaandKenyaaswellas in thevastmajorityof SouthSudanandSudan (particularlySouthernandEasternSudan, includingKassala,RedSea,KordofansandNileStates).Inadditioncropandanimaldiseasesandpests,damagetoinfrastructure,displacement,andpost-harvestlossesareexpected.
If La Niña were to materialize it is likely going to impact regions that have already been negatively affected by El Niño, most likely causing a further deterioration of food security into 2017.Thenumberofpeopleundercrisisandemergency(IPCphases3&4)orinneedhumanitarianassistanceislikelytoincreasefromthecurrent23.4millionpeopleinthefirsthalfof2017astherainfallseasonisconsecutivelynegativelyimpactedparticularlyfortheareaslikelytoreceivenormaltobelownormalrainfallandyettorecoverfromElNino.Inaddition,foodpriceslooksettocontinuetheirrisetorecordlevelsincountriesthatdepictpoormacroeconomicconditionsandareaswhoseproductionwillbeaffectedbydrierthannormalconditionsinSeptembertoDecemberinEastAfricancountries,exacerbatingfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionacrosstheregion.
7AccordingtotheInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI).
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
As a result of El Niño and possible La Niña drought and flooding, waterborne communicable diseases as well as vector-born diseases are expected to increase throughout the region.Aboveaveragerainfallexpected inUganda,westernEthiopiaandKenya,aswellas inthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareaswhereitcouldleadtoafurtherincreaseinCholeraandAWDcasesaswellassimultaneousoutbreaksofvectorborneand/orwaterbornediseases.
Population displacement is expected to continue to increase, particularly from and within South Sudan, withmorethan100,000additionalrefugeesprojectedtoarriveinUgandabytheendoftheyearaccordingtoUNHCR.WhiletheTripartiteCommissionagreedtomeetinOctober2016toreviewprogressmadeonthevoluntary repatriationofSomali refugees fromKenya, the returnofSomali refugees fromDadaabislikelytoexacerbatethefragilehumanitariansituationintheareasofreturn.TheabsorptioncapacityconstraintraisedbytheauthoritiesinJubalandareanindicationthattensionsmayrisethere,sincemanySomalirefugeesinKenyaoriginatefromtheprovinceandarelikelytoreturnthere.FloodingoverthenexttwomonthsisexpectedtocontinuetodisplacepopulationsinEthiopiainthecomingperiod.Therecentviolent clashes in DRCmaybeaprecursortomorepre-electionviolencepotentiallyleadingtopopulationdisplacement.
III. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS
Humanitarian needs are expected to increase throughout the region, and humanitarian conditions invulnerabilityhotspotsarelikelytodeterioratesignificantly.Theseareasinclude:
•Multiple locations across South Sudan.InNorthernBahrelGhazal(NBeG),theacutefoodinsecurityandmalnutritioncrisisisexpectedtocontinue,whileinWesternBahrelGhazal(WBeG)ongoingconflictandinsecuritycontinuestodrivehumanitarianneeds.OngoingclashesintheEquatoriasarelikelytotriggeradditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborderstoUganda,DRCandCAR.Meanwhile,theGreaterUpperNileregionremainshighlyunstableandfurthertensionsarelikelyandmaycausefurtherdisplacement, including toEthiopiaandSudan.There isalso the likelihoodof thecontinuedspreadofcommunicablediseaseoutbreaks,includingcholera,malaria,measlesandkala-azar.
•Uganda.GiventheunprecedentedinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugeesintheNorth(Adjumani,Kirandongoetc), withmore than 100,000 South Sudanese refugees arriving in September alone, and structurallyunderfundedRegionalRefugeeAppeal.
•South central Somalia, northwestern Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia areas. The predicted depressed rainfallwillleadtobelowaverageagriculturalproductioninsomeparts;likelytofurtherincreasealreadyalarming food insecurityandmalnutrition levels.At the sametime,enhanced rainfall in theEthiopianhighlandsislikelytoleadtoflooding,landslidesandanincreaseinwater-bornediseases,includingalongrivers in south central Somalia.Growing tensions, clan and localized conflict at county level ahead ofelections,thereturnofSomali refugeesfromKenya,couldprovetobeanadditionalstressfactor,andsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiescouldfurthercompoundvulnerabilities.
•Pastoralist areas in the eastern Ethiopia - northwest Somalia border areashavefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015andarelikelytocontinuetobehitbyerraticandbelowaveragerains.
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
IV. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
CLIMATE(1)Governments,withthesupportofregionalorganizations,humanitariananddevelopmentpartners,should update and implement national contingency plans for both drought and flood responses.Furthermore,coordinatedresourcemobilizationeffortsareneeded,includingexploringnewsourcesoffundingsuchastheClimateAdaptationFunds,whichwillholddiscussionsonthedeploymentoffundsinNovember2016inMorocco.Sofar,thefundhascommittedUS$354.9millionin61countriessince2010toclimateadaptationandresilienceactivities.
(2)Advocate for the resultsof theongoing reviewof the impactof the ‘EndingDroughtEmergencies’adoptedbyIGADin2011tofeedintotheworkoftheElNiñoEnvoys,namelyinthedevelopmentofablueprintandStandardOperatingProceduresforintegratedhumanitarian/developmentactiontobetterprepareforfutureclimateshocks.
(3)Scale-upintegratedmulti-sectoralemergencyresponse,recoveryandresiliencebuildinginterventionsincludingcashtransfers/socialsafetynets,marketbasedintervention,nutritionsupplies,water,sanitation,health,provisionofanimalfodderandseeds,destocking,andplanforrecoveryactivities,crossbordercoordinationincludingtoaddressdiseaseoutbreaksthroughmulti-sectorresponseincludingstrengthenedregionalsurveillance,water/sanitation,healthandvectorcontrol.
(4)FinalizethesubregionalIGAD/UNcommunicablediseasepreparednessandresponseplanforKenya,SomaliaandEthiopia (SomaliCluster)andpresent to thedonor community to implementa sustainedresponse. Implementation of the plan could catalyze further action for this priority IGAD cluster, fordevelopment investment tomitigateagainst significanthumanitarian risks,build resilientcommunitiesandachievedurablesolutionsforrefugeesandIDPs.
SOUTH SUDAN, GREAT LAKES(5)PrepareforadeteriorationofthehumanitariansituationinSouthSudan,DRCandBurundi,bydevelopingand/orupdatingregionalmulti-countryregionalcontingencyplansbasedonwhereappropriatenationallyledeffortswithalignedscenarioplans,analysis,andrecommendations,forregionalpreparedness.
(6)Activelysupportearlysolutionsplanningandprogramingtobetterlinkhumanitariananddevelopmentapproachestodurablesolutions,includingthroughclosecoordinationwiththenewlyestablishedIGADRegionalSecretariatonForcedDisplacementandMixedMigrationfortheHornofAfricaandtheICGLRandtheUNSpecialEnvoyfortheGreatLakes.Itiscriticaltoprovideadequatelong-termandpredictablefinancialsupporttocountriesandcommunitiesintheregionthathostrefugeesandIDPs,insuchwaysthat improve access to integrated services and economic opportunities. Through coordinated action,additionalfundingcouldalsobeleveraged,includingfromEUMigrationfunding.
KENYA-SOMALIA(7)DevelopregionalcontingencyplansinvolvingallGovernmentcounterpartsandagencies,whichincludetheidentificationofresourcesrequiredtoleveragesupportformoresustainableservicesinformedbyjointanalysisofvulnerabilitiesandcompoundingriskfactorsassociatedwiththeclosureofDadaabrefugeecamp.Thesewouldinclude:aSomalia(re)integrationplan;themobilizationofresourcesandmessagingtoaddresstheunderfundedRRP;increasedfoodinsecurityandpopulationdisplacementasaresultofLaNiña;underfundingandhumanitarianaccessconstrains;aswellasinsecurityasaresultofelection-relatedviolence,clan-basedviolenceand/orterroristattacks.UsethisPlanforpreparednessfortheworst-casescenarioandtomaximizeopportunitiestoachievedurablesolutions.
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
(8)Engageinhigh-leveladvocacywiththeAU,donorsanddevelopmentpartners,toprioritizesupporttotheregionaleffortinthesearchfordurablesolutionsinadditiontootherpriorityinitiativesincluding:cooperationbetweenKenya and Ethiopia on theMarsabit/Boranaborder, and the joint IGAD/UN subregionalplantoaddresscommunicablediseasesintheSomaliCluster.
II. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS AND OUTLOOK
DRIVERS OF HUMANITARIAN NEED
CONFLICT TRENDS AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSOverview: Violent conflict, being the main driver of humanitarian suffering and displacement, continues to pose a significant threat to the safety and security of civilians across the region.Situationsofon-goingconflict,conflictaccompanyingpoliticalanddevelopmentprocessesandinter-communalviolencehavebeenresponsiblefor3,987fatalitiesbetweenJulyandSeptember(ACLEDdata).
DespitetheformationofthetransitionalgovernmentinApril,lowlevelclashesinpartsofthecountrysetthestageforabreakdowninthepeaceprocess.TheintensificationofactiveconflictinSouth SudaninJuly,alongwithfightinginmultiplelocations–particularlytheEquatorias-inAugustandSeptember,morethandoubledthenumberofconflictfatalitiesthereascomparedtothepreviousquarter.InSudan,fatalitiesdroppedsignificantly, reflectinga reportedreduction inbothgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentinDarfurandtheTwoAreas.Thisisinkeepingwiththeseasonalnatureofconflictthere–conflictlevelshistorically reduceduring the leanseason.However, thisyearmilitarycampaigns inpartsof the JebelMarrareportedlycontinuedbeyondtheleanseason.
In Ethiopia,anti-governmentprotestsbytheOromoandAmharaethnicgroupscontinuedwithreportsofcasualtiesamongprotestersandsecurityforces.OHCHRhascalledupontheEthiopiagovernmenttopermitthedeploymentofindependentobserversintothecountrytoaccessthehumanrightssituation.IntensifyingAlShabaaboffensivesafterRamadan,clanviolenceandtheupcomingelectoralprocess inSomaliathreatentoincreasethealreadyconsistentlyhighnumberoffatalitiesthereinthecomingmonths.ReportedfatalitiesinBurundihavedroppedsignificantlyinthesecondquarteroftheyear,yetBurundiisnoclosertoapoliticalresolutionandasthishashadadirectimpactontheincreasinghumanitarianneedsinthecountry.
BURUNDIBurundiismiredinapoliticalcrisis,whichappearstobedeepening,astherulingpartyandoppositionvoicesarenoclosertoaresolutionoftheconstitutionalcrisispredicatedbytheelectionsheldin2015whenPresidentNkurunzizasoughtandwonathirdelectoralterm.AnIntra-BurundiDialoguetookplaceinArushaon12July,mediatedbytheEastAfricanCommunityandfacilitatedbyTanzania’sformerpresidentBenjaminMkapa.Howeverrepresentativesoffivepoliticalpartieswhoparticipatedinthe2015generalelection boycotted the summit over a conflict about the participation of certain opposition figures.TheGovernmentremainsunwillingtonegotiatewiththosepoliticalopponents itholdsresponsiblefororganizingthefailedcoupattemptlastyear.Theseincludekeyoppositionfigureswhoremaininexile,with
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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
whomMr.MkapaalsometinBelgium.AccordingtoBurundi’sForeignAffairsMinisterAlainNyamitwe,themainpurposeofthenow-stalleddialoguewasthereturnofrefugeesandpreparationsforthe2020elections.Inthefaceofthispoliticalstalemateitseemslikelythathumanitarianconditionsinthecountrywillcontinuetodeteriorateinthecomingmonths.
TREND OF CONFLICT IN BURUNDI (2015 TO SEPT 2016)
Num
ber o
f con
flict
eve
nts
Num
ber o
f fat
ali�
es
Source: Armed Conflict Location and Events Database (ACLED)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1/20
/201
5
2/10
/201
5
3/3/
2015
3/24
/201
5
4/14
/201
5
5/5/
2015
5/26
/201
5
6/16
/201
5
7/7/
2015
7/28
/201
5
8/18
/201
5
9/8/
2015
9/2
9/20
15
10/2
0/20
15
11/
10/2
015
12/1
/201
5
12/2
2/20
15
1/12
/201
6
2/2/
2016
2/23
/201
6
3/1
5/20
16
4/5/
2016
4/26
/201
6
5/17
/201
6
6/7/
2016
6/2
8/20
16
7/19
/201
6
8/9
/201
6
8/30
/201
6
9/20
/201
6
10/1
/201
6
Trend of conflict in Burundi (2015 to Sept 2016)
Ba�le-No change of territory Riots/Protests Strategic development Violence against civilians Fatali�es
CONFLICT TRENDS
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
ANGOLA
KENYA
SOMALIA
LIBYA
YEMEN
EGYPT
ZAMBIA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOFTHE CONGO
UNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIA
UGANDA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
ERITREA
BURUNDIRWANDA
DJIBOUTI
SOUTHSUDAN
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
ANGOLA
KENYA
SOMALIA
LIBYA
YEMEN
EGYPT
SOUTHSUDAN
ZAMBIA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOF THE CONGO
UNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIA
UGANDA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
ERITREA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
ANGOLA
KENYA
SOMALIA
LIBYA
YEMEN
EGYPT
SOUTH SUDAN
ZAMBIA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
UNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIA
UGANDA
CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC
ERITREA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
Incidents4 - 2526 - 5051 - 100101 - 150151 - 200>200
Pending verification
1336
1226
2944
282
6
92
43523
1679
1322
5623
318
13
52
106350
1031
476
6210
445
21
17
681280
JAN - MARCH APRIL - JUNE
JULY - SEPTEMBER
Source: Armed conflict and location and events database (ACLED)
Others
Strategic development
Remote violence
Riots/Protests
Violence against civilians
Battle-No change of territory
FatalitiesXX
ETHIOPIA
12
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
On29July,theUNSecurityCouncilapprovedaUNpolicecomponentofupto228officersinBurundiforaninitialperiodofoneyear,withamandatetomonitorthesecuritysituationandassistOHCHRinmonitoringhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Burundihasrejectedthedecisionandhaswithdrawnitconsenttoallow50policeofficersintothecountry,althoughitwillstillallowthe200AfricanUnionobserversandmilitaryexperts,ofwhomonly50havetakenuptheirpoststhusfar.
CONFLICT TREND - FEB TO AUG 2016
Conflict trend Feb to Sept 2016
Source: Armed Conflict Location and Events Database (ACLED)
Num
ber o
f inc
iden
ts
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Burundi DRC Somalia South Sudan Sudan
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
SOMALIASomalia’s electoral process scheduled for September andOctober 2016 continues tobe accompaniedbyrisingpoliticaltensionandviolence.Itremainsunclearwhetherthereisadirectcorrelationbetweenincidentsofpoliticalviolenceandtheelectoralprocess;howeverafurtherescalationofviolencearoundtheissueispossible.AlShabaabhasdeclaredthatitintendstodisrupttheprocess,inwhichmorethan14,000Somalis inMogadishuand in the regionalcapitals/seatsofgovernmentwillparticipate.14,025“electors” representing the clanswill select themembersof the lowerhouseofParliamentwhile thecountry’srecentlyformedstategovernmentswillnominatemembersoftheupperhouse.Together,thetwohouseswillelectanewpresident.Thesevotersandstakeholdersgatheringinurbancentresacrossthecountrywillbevulnerabletoattacksandsecurityincidents,whileatthesametime,theuseoffinancial,securityandlogisticalresourcestofacilitatetheelectionscouldhaveadetrimentaleffectonhumanitarianactivitiesduringthisperiod.
Al Shabaab has continued to perpetrate attacks inmany parts of the country, as well as against theinternationalpresenceinSomalia,withagreaterfrequencyofmajorattacksinMogadishusincetheendofRamadan.TherearecontinuedreportsthatAMISOMintendstolaunchanoffensiveagainstAlShabaabinLowerJubabeforetheimplementationoftheelectoralprocess.Ifandwhenundertaken,suchmilitaryactivity is certain to affect the civilianpopulationand the limitedhumanitarianactivitiesunderway inLowerJubaandotherregionswithastrongAlShabaabpresence.Inrecentmonths,anumberofcitieshaveseenchangesofcontrolbackandforthbetweengovernmentforcesandAlShabaab,includingtheLowerShabellecityofMarkawherethepopulationhasbeencaughtinthemiddleofcontinuingviolence.
Inter-clanviolenceandtensionalsoremainshighelsewhere,withclashesbetweenPuntlandandSomalilandforces in the context of Somaliland’s voter registrationexercise in thedisputedareasof Sool, EasternSanaagandBuuhoodle at theendof July. The state formationprocess inHiraanandMiddle Shabelleremainscontroversial,withclansinHiraanrejectingeffortsledbytheFederalGovernmentandIGADtore-launchthestateformationconferenceinearlySeptember.Tensionsrelatedtothestateformationandelectoralprocessesexacerbatepre-existinginter-communaltensions,andfurtherviolencecoulderuptinthecomingperiod.
13
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
EAST AFRICA ELECTORAL TIMELINE
Sources: African Union, National Democratic Institute, Electionguide.org
P - Presidential Elections
G - General Elections
N.A - National Assembly Elections
L - Legislative Elections
R - Referendum
Date not confirmed
Postponed
KENYAG
KENYAN.A
SOMALIAN.A
SUDANN.A
EAST AFRICA ELECTORAL TIMELINE
NOVOCTSEP DEC JAN FEB MAR APR JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
17 Jul27 Nov
30 Nov23 Oct 10 Nov 31 Aug 10 Oct 31 Dec
2016 2017DRCN.A
DRCP
SOMALIAN.A
DRCL
RWANDAN.A
SOMALIAP
SUDANReducedlevelsofgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentwerereportedlyconductedinthecentralareaofDarfurandinthesouthernstatesofSouthKordofanandBlueNile–the‘TwoAreas’–withtheonsetof the rainyseason.However,clashes reportedatAlazraq,amajor farmingarea in thecentralpartofSouthKordofan,bythegovernment,negatively impactedthealreadyfragilehumanitarianconditionofthepopulation.
On8August2016,themainmembersoftheSudaneseoppositionsignedtheRoadMapAgreement,whichwasendorsedbytheGovernmentofSudan inMarch2016withtheexceptionoftheSudanLiberationArmy-AbdelWahid,themainrebelgroupcurrentlyactiveinDarfur.Followingthis,atwo-trackeddiscussiononacessationofhostilitiesandhumanitarianassistancefortheTwoAreasandDarfur”beganinAddisAbabawith the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) acting asmediator. After sixdaysof consultation, the talkson theTwoAreascollapsed,which in turnalso stalled theDarfur trackdiscussions,whichalsostalledoverdisagreementondivulginglocationofforces.AstheGovernmentandtheoppositionappearunabletocurrentlycometoaresolution,conflictinSudanisexpectedtoresumeduringthenextdryseason(Novemberonwards).
SOUTH SUDANDeadly clashes took place in June in Western Bahr el Ghazal, displacing more than 80,000 people.Approximately44,300peopleweredisplacedinWautownandafurtherestimated38,800weredisplacedinareasoutsideofWau.8On7July,fightingeruptedinJubabetweentheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmyandtheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmy-InOpposition(SPLA-IO).Thefightingwhichspreadacrossthecity,resultedinhundredsdead,andwasaccompaniedbythelootingofmillionsofdollars’worthofaidfromWFPandFAOwarehouses.UNMISScompoundsandProtectionofCivilians(PoC)sitessustainedimpactsfromsmallarmsandheavyweaponsfire, leavingtwopeacekeepersdeadanddamagingthematernitywardof ahealth clinic.UNMISS reportedeightpeople killedandfifty-nine injured in andaroundPoCsitesbetween10-11 July.9On11 July, armedmen inuniformstormed theTerrainHotel, a compound
8StatementoftheRegionalandInternationalPartnersofJMECRegardingWauJune29,2016,http://www.jmecsouthsudan.com/news.php?id=32
9http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/press-briefing-note-south-sudan-12-july-2016
14
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
housing humanitarianworkers, killing one aidworker and raping andbeatingothers.10On 16August,theUNSecretary-GenerallaunchedanindependentspecialinvestigationtodeterminethecircumstancessurroundingtheseincidentsandtoevaluatetheMission’soverallresponse.11
On 11 July, following pressure from the international community - IGADmember states, the AfricanUnion,theUSandChina-PresidentKiirandDr.ReikMacharagreedtoaceasefire.However,fightinghascontinuedinmultiplelocationsacrossthecountry,particularlytheEquatorias,wheretensofthousandsofpeoplehavebeendisplaced.
UNresolution(2304/2016),adoptedon12August,calledfortheestablishmentofaRegionalProtectionForceforJuba,comprisingof4,000extratroopswithamandatetoprovideextrasecurityinthecapitaluntil15December2016. The resolutionalso increased the ceiling forUNMISS troop levels to17,000.DiscussionsareongoingwiththeGovernmentofSouthSudanregardingthedeploymentoftheforce.TheresolutionallowedfortheadoptionofanarmsembargointhefaceofpoliticaloroperationalimpedimentstooperationalizingtheRegionalProtectionForceorobstructionstoUNMISSinperformanceofitsmandate.
Giventhehighlyvolatilesituation,itislikelythatfurtherviolenceacrossthecountrywillcontinuetocauseimmensesufferingforthecivilianpopulation,andobstructhumanitarianaccesstopopulationsinneedinthemonthsahead.
CLIMATEOverview: The impact of El Niño continues to be felt in the region despite the persistence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions since the end of May 2016.12ThelatestclimatemodelfromtheInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI)forecastsreducedLaNiñaexpectations,andsuggestsnear-equalchances forneutralENSOandweakLaNiñaconditions throughendof2016.However,themostinfluentialweathersystemontheHornofAfricaregionalclimateistheIndianOceanDipole(IOD),whichiscurrentlyinnegativephase.ThecombinationofaweakLaNinaandanegativeIODhastranslatedintodepressedrainfallovermostoftheregionandenhancedrainfallinsomeparts.
CPC/IRI EARLY - MONTH OFFICIAL ENSO FORECAST PROBABILITIES
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AMJ2016
MJJ2016
JJA2016
JAS2016
ASO2016
SON2016
OND2016
NDJ2016
DJF2016
JFM2017
FMA2017
MAM2017
Season
CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
AccordingtotheICPACGreaterHornof Africa (GHA) consensus climateoutlook there is an increasedlikelihood of below normal rainfallovermostof theequatorialpartsofthe region, especially in theeasternand southern sectors of the regionThe areas of concern due to the below average October-December rainfall include pastoral areas of Ethiopia (South-Pastoral regions); Kenya (Eastern and Northern areas); Djibouti (northern and coastal
areas); Somalia (mainly in Somaliland and Puntland); and Tanzania (northern pastoral and Mount Kilimanjaro areas).Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsectorwhichmayleadtoflooding
10OCHASouthSudanPressStatement,19August2016, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SS_160819_World_Humanitarian_Day_Press_Release.pdf
11https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2016-08-16/statement-attributable-spokesman-secretary-general-south-sudan
12WHOMonthlyElNiñoUpdate,August2016.
15
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
andlandslidesinwesternpartsofUganda,Ethiopia,SudanandKenyaaswellasinthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareas;enhancedrainfallintheseareasislikelytoincreasewaterloggingandpossiblefloodinginflood-proneareas.Intheseareas,landslides,cropandanimaldiseasesandpests,anincreaseinwater-bornediseases,damagetoinfrastructure,displacement,andpost-harvestlossesareexpected.
RAINFALL OUTLOOKIn Ethiopia, Kiremt (June - September) seasonalrains have reduced slightly since mid-August, butthishasnothadanadverseeffectoncroppingandrangeland conditions across much of its highlyproductive agricultural areas in the central andwesternhighlands.However,floodthreatsremain,withpersistentheavyrainsforecastforthecomingmonthsinthewesternhalfofthecountry.
In Somalia,southernagropastoralareasareacauseofconcernduetothesignificantlybelowaverageGu andpredictedbelownormalDeyrrainproductions.Below-average and erratic Gu rainfall from April–June2016has led toasignificantlybelow-averageGuharvest(whichnormallyaccountsfor75percentof total annualproduction),especially in southernagro pastoral areas. Moderate rainfall in mid-Julyenhancedpastureandwater resources in thesouthernagropastoral areas, leading to improvedlivestockproductivityandvalues.RiverineareasofHiraanwereflooded,partlyalsoduetowaterflow
fromEthiopianHighlands,andupto80percentofthecropwasdestroyedinJune2016.However,theONDseasonforecastandlikelyLaNiñaeventoccurringthroughouttheDeyrseason(October-December),whichispredictedbebelow-average,willleadtobelowaverageDeyrproductionandfailuretoadequatelyrestorepastureandwaterresources.
In Sudanaboveaveragerainsoverkeyagriculturalproductionareas(cropandlivestock)ineasternandcentralSudanhaveimprovedagriculturalproductionprospectsinthecountry.Persistentabove-averagerains have resulted in floods in Kassala, Darfur, Sennar, Kordofan, Al Gezira, Gedaref, andWhite NilestatesinSudan,affectinganestimated201,000peopleaccordingtotheNationalFloodTaskForce.Cropproductionisexpectedtobebetterthanlastyearandaverage-to-aboveaverage.
In Djibouti, Karan/Karmarains,whichstartedinJuly,haveresultedinaveragetoabove-averagerainfallamounts.Asaresult,livestockconditionsarealsoexpectedtograduallyimprovewithon-goingfavorablerainsinbothDjiboutiandYemen.
In Kenya, the recently concludedKenya FoodSecurityGroupAssessment (KFSSG), concluded that thepoor seasonal rains (March – June) in northeastern pastoral areas andmarginal agricultural areas ofsoutheasternlowlandsandcoastalareas,arelikelytoprolongtheadverseimpactoncropandlivestockproductionintheseregions.TherearecurrentlyreportsofconflictamongthepastoralcommunitiesofIsiolo,GarissaandTanaRiver,duetolimitedandrapidlydecliningrangelandresourcesinthesecounties.Unfortunately,theseasonalrainfalloutlookforthemuch-depended-uponOctober–December,arealsoverylikelytobepoor,duetothecombinedeffectsofaneutralIODandweakeningLa-Ninaeventattheendoftheyear.Thefoodsecuritysituationisexpectedtoremainprecariousandis likelytoworsenincomingmonths.Cropproductionprospectsforthecountryarelikelytobenear-averagetoslightlybelow
16
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
averageduetobelow-averagerainsoverpartsofwesternKenyaandsouthernriftvalleyregionsofKenya.EnhancedraininwesternKenyaandaroundtheLackVictoriabasinmayresultinflooding.
In South Sudan,despite theon-goingabove-average rains, violentconflict is likely to limitagriculturalactivitiesandoverallproduction in thecountry.Furthermore,currentfloodsandcontinuedfloodriskspredicted throughout most of the country may exacerbate the situation, with more flood-relateddisplacement expected, coupledwith the loss of crops and other properties. Thismay occur in areaswherepeoplehavealreadybeendisplacedduetoconflict.
In northern Uganda,overallpooranderraticseasonalrainsarelikelytoresultinareducedcropyieldduetoprolongedcrop-water-stress.However, therangelandconditionsovereasternKaramojaare likelytoimprovewiththelaterains,whichareforecasttocontinue.Floodingandlandslidesarelikelyinwestern,LakeVictoriabasinandMt.Elgonareas.
In Burundi and Rwanda,theforecastmoderatetoheavyrains(20–80mm)inthecomingmonths,arelikelytohelpeasethecurrentdrierconditions.
ECONOMIC SHOCKSOverview: Economic shocks across the region primarily affect the most vulnerable and compound humanitarian needs.Lastyearwitnessedafallinglobalcommoditypricesandweakglobalgrowth,theeffectsofwhicharestillbeingfelt into2016.Thiseconomicdownturnhasbeenexacerbatedbysocio-politicalinstabilityplaguingcountriesintheEastAfricaregion,aswellastheeffectsofproductionlossesduetoElNiño.TheWorldBankreviseditsgrowthprojectionssubstantiallydownforsub-SaharanAfrica.After slowing to 3 percent in 2015, economic growth in Sub-SaharanAfrica is projected to fall to 1.6percentin2016,thelowestlevelinovertwodecades.Lowcommoditypricesandtightfinancialconditions,exacerbatedbydomesticheadwindsfrompolicyuncertainty,droughts,andpoliticalandsecurityconcerns,continuedtoweighonactivityacrosstheregion.13
REGIONAL PRICE INDICES (JANUARY 2010 – AUGUST 2016)South Sudan has been particularly hardhit.AccordingtotheIMFArticleIVreportthe decline in oil production by almosthalfandthesharpdropininternationaloilprices caused large shortfalls in foreignexchange receipts and governmentrevenue.ThefiscaldeficitisforecasttobeUS$1.1bn (about 25per centofGDP) inthisfinancialyear,andtheGovernmentisappealingforhelpfromKenya,Chinaandthetraditionaldonorcommunitytomeetbasicexpenditure.
Thecountryisexperiencinganeconomiccrisis with a sharp decline in national income and hyper-inflation, exceeding 730 per cent in August.Moreover,thevalueoftheSouthSudanesepoundhasdroppedbycloseto90percentsincetheexchangerateliberalizationinDecember2015,whilecentralbankinternationalreserveshavedwindledtoafewdaysofimportcoverage.
TradetoandwithinSouthSudanhasbeenseverelydisruptedfollowingrenewedconflictinandaround
13WorldBank,Africa'sPulse,No.14,October2016
17
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
JubaandduetoinsecurityalongkeyroadsconnectingtoUganda,reducingfoodsuppliesonmostmarkets.Asaresult,staplefoodpricesincreaseddrasticallybetweenJuneandJuly,reachingmorethan10timesthefive-yearaverageonanumberofkeymarkets.Thesepricespikescomeatthepeakoftheleanseasonwhenmosthouseholdshavedepletedtheirfoodstocksandaredependentonmarketpurchasestoaccessfood.14
BurundicontinuestofeeltheeconomicimpactfromthepoliticalcrisisandacrossbordertradebanwithRwandaisaffectinglivelihoodsoftradersandpushingupprices.Onamorepositivenote,taxrevenuesinBurundirosebyalmost13percentinJulycomparedwithayearago.Howeverthisisinsufficienttooffsetthewithdrawalofdonorfunding.
In Somalia,remittancesareakeysourceofincomeandwereestimatedtoreachatotalofUS$1.4billionin2015supporting23percentoftheGDP.However,manybanksintheUnitedStates,UnitedKingdom,CanadaandAustraliahaveclosedthebankaccountsofSomali remittancecompaniespurportedlydueto theperceivedhigh risksofmoney launderingandpotential links to terrorism.TheWorldBankhasselectedandappointed“AbyrintAS”toactasthe“TrustedAgent”totheCentralBankofSomaliaandassisttheauthoritiesincomprehensivelyregulatingandsupervisingmoneytransferbusinessestosustaintheremittanceflow.
Sudan’sannual inflationrateroseto18.15percentinAugustfrom16.5percentinJulyasthepriceoffoodstuffs and services climbed higher. A shortage of foreign currency has seen the Sudanese pounddepreciateagainstthedollarontheblackmarket,reachingabout16tothedollarinlateAugust.
Foodprices across the region continue to increase, having risen to record levels inmanyEastAfricancountries,exacerbatingfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionacrosstheregion.
FEWS NET REGIONAL PRICE INDICES AND FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX, JANUARY 2010 – JULY 2016
Q2-2016 (April to June) vs. Q1-2016 (January to March)Q2-2016 (April to June) vs. Q2-Baseline (Average April to June)
IMPACT OF STAPLE COMMODITY PRICE CHANGES ON THE COST OF THE BASIC FOOD BASKET
Note: This map is based on the calculations at subnational level. Baseline prices are from Q2 2011-2015.
Source: WFP; Base Map: GAUL
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
KENYA
SOMALIA
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH SUDAN
TANZANIA
UGANDA
ERITREA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
KENYA
SOMALIA
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH SUDAN
TANZANIA
UGANDA
ERITREA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
Impact codesLow
Moderate
High
Severe
Monitored butwithout baseline
Water bodies
(< 0)
(0-5%)
(5-10%)
(>10%)
14FEWSNETAlert,DrasticfoodpriceincreasesfurtherreducehouseholdfoodaccessAugust23,2016
18
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
III. HUMANITARIAN IMPACTFORCED DISPLACEMENT AND MIXED MIGRATION
Overview: Conflict and natural disasters remain the twomain causes of civilian displacement in theregion,whichnowhost3.6millionrefugeesand7.2millionIDP’s.Thenumberofrefugeesintheregionhasincreasedby205,451overthepastquarter,andthenumberofIDPshasincreasedby63,148.Asof30September2016,thelargestrefugeeoutflowfortheregionwasof1.03millionrefugeesfromSouthSudan.
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENTIn Sudan,duringthefirsteightmonthsof2016,approximately80,600peoplewerenewlydisplacedacrossDarfur,accordingtotheUNandpartners.Anadditional117,440peoplewerealsoreportedlydisplaced(inadditiontoabout59,000whohavereportedlyreturned)buttheUNandpartnershavebeenunabletoverifythesefiguresduetoalackofaccesstotherelevantlocations.Thevastmajorityofthedisplacementin2016hasbeentriggeredbytheconflictintheJebelMarraareathatignitedinJanuary2016.15MostoftheunverifiedIDPsarebelievedtobeinCentralDarfurState.16
In South Sudan,intermittentfightingcontinuestodisplacepopulationsacrossthecountry.TheongoingviolenceinandaroundWauhasresultedintherepeateddisplacementofmorethan78,500people.Thisincludesnearly39,800internallydisplacedpeople(IDPs)currentlyshelteringatvariouslocationsinWautown,includingintheUNMISSprotectedarea,theCatholicCathedral,SouthSudanRedCross(SSRC)andNazarethcompounds.Inaddition,morethan38,800peopleareestimatedtobedisplacedintheGreaterBaggariArea– including inBiringi,NgoHalima,Tadu,andNgisa-andMboro.ThousandspeopleweredisplacedUnitystate,wherefightingtookplacebetween6 -15August.17 InRaja,19,000peopleweredisplacedafterviolencebrokeoutinthecityon22July.
In Ethiopia, 44,168 households reportedly returned to their places of origins after temporarily beingdisplacedbytheMarch-Junefloods.18HoweverinJuneafreshdisplacementof56,272individualswasreported as result of the inter-clan conflict along the borders between Somalia and Oromia regions,increasingthenumberofpeopleinprotracteddisplacementinEthiopiatoanestimated657,224.19FloodingoverthenexttwomonthsisexpectedtocontinuetodisplacepeopleinEthiopiainthecomingperiod.20
Inaddition,basedonIOMDTMBurundi,59,758areinternallydisplacedin7provincesoutof18inBurundiforbothnaturaldisastersandpoliticalinstability,asofAugust2016.
15OCHASudan,2016NewDisplacementsandAffectedPeopleinDarfurasof31August2016.
16OCHASudan,JebelMarraCrisisFactSheetIssue7.
17OCHASouthSudan,HumanitarianBulletin,Issue12.
18OCHAEthiopia,HumanitarianBulletin25July2016
19IOMEthiopia,InternalDisplacementUpdate,August2016
20OCHAEthiopia,HumanitarianBulletin,15Aug2016
19
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
IDPS CASELOAD
SUDAN
KENYA
SOMALIA
UGANDA
ERITREA
BURUNDI
TANZANIA
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
YEMEN
SOUTHSUDAN
ETHIOPIA
1,690,000
1,500,000 309,200
545,771
7,130,302IDPs as of Sept 2016
Current IDP caseload
Percentage change since Dec 2015
6,845,545IDPS Caseload as of Dec 2015
Change in IDP caseload since Dec 20155%
0.7%
42.1%
1.4%0.5%
3.2%
XX%
Creation Date: 14 Sept 2016 SOURCE: OCHA, IDMC, UNHCR reports
3,200,000
1,672,989
1,800,000
718,154
XX
309,200
100,000
250
29,800
1,100,000
DRC
CROSS-BORDER DISPLACEMENTLarge numbers of South Sudanese refugees continue to arrive across the region. Across the GreaterEquatoriaregion,tensofthousandsofpeoplehavebeendisplacedandmorethan150,000peoplewhohavecrossed intoUgandasinceearlyJulyandapproximately32,000SouthSudanesehavearrived intotheGambellaregionofEthiopiainrecentweeks,seekingassistanceandprotection.Asof21September1,033,455SouthSudaneserefugeeshavefledtoneighboringcountries–themajorityafterDecember2013-mainlyUganda(392,630),Ethiopia(292,844),andSudan(247,317).21Thismassiveincreaseinrefugeearrivalsresultedintheneedfortheestablishmentofnewreceptioncentersandcamps. InEastDarfurState in Sudan, theauthoritiesallocated land toestablish twonewcamps for theSouthern Sudaneserefugees.22InUganda,transitcentersareincreasinglybecomingcongested,andrefugeesaretransporteddailytoexpandingsettlements.
21UNHCRSouthSudandataportal
22OCHASudan,SouthSudaneseinfluxtoEastDarfur,Issue5.
20
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH SUDAN REFUGEES MOVEMENTSUDAN
KENYA
UGANDA
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
SOUTH SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
292,885281,202
0.3%
91,11196,702
9.1%
392,63027,250
195,930105.2%
247,317194,404
27.2%
Percentage increase/decrease
Refugee population as of Sept 2016
XX%Refugee population as of Dec 2015
4,931
Sources: UNHCR portal (http://data.unhcr.org/SouthSudan/regional.php). Data includes pre and post Dec 2013. Creation date: 10 Oct 2016
1,033,455Total Refugees fromSouth Sudan
AsofAugust,thereare301,403Burundian refugeesintheregion-anincreaseof30,082fromendofJuly2016.23Thefigurehasincreaseddespitethereportedspontaneousreturnof36,798Burundianrefugeestothecountry,mostlytoMakambaprovince.24
BURUNDI REFUGEES MOVEMENT
UGANDA
BURUNDITANZANIA
DRC
RWANDA
68,22581,279
97,913165,224
Refugee population as of October 2015Percentage increase
Current refugee population (July 2016)
14,71328,543
28,90618,382
69%
XX%
94%
19%
57%
Creation date: 23 Sept 2016 Sources: UNHCR portal (http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php) www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int
301,403Total Refugees from Burundi
23data.unhcr.org/burundi
24FollowingtheverificationexerciseinMakamba,32,729SpontaneousReturnswerereportedoutofwhommerely3,483claimedtohaveregisteredasrefugees.SeeUNHCRRegionalUpdateBurundi#28,http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php
21
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
REFUGEE CASELOAD
SUDAN
KENYA
SOMALIA
UGANDA
ERITREA
BURUNDI TANZANIA
DRC
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
YEMEN
SOUTH SUDANETHIOPIA
Refugee caseload as of Sept 2016
Percentage change since Dec 2015
Refugees arrivals in 2016
XX%
382,239
261,280 743,732
502,194
57,827
153,341
769,539
405,307
22,397
2,303
20,091
255,158
23%10%
177%
4%
8%
1%
10%
1%
61%
6%
5%
Refugees caseload as of September 20163,575,409*
Refugees caseload as of Dec 2015
Percentage change since Dec 2015
3,162,875
13%
8,604
21,010
292,352
4,464
72,600
14,316
726
-51,718
XX
7,646
Creation Date: 10 Oct 2016 SOURCES: UNHCR Global Trends 2015, UNHCR Data Portal, OCHA Reports
REFUGEE CASELOAD
20%
XX
XX
* This figure captures the rapid influx of S.Sudan refugees into Uganda in Sept 2016
43,313
-1,736
-245
CLOSURE OF DADAAB CAMPTheGovernment ofKenya announced inMay that itwill close Dadaab camp, home to over 284,000Somalirefugees,by30November2016,citingsecurity,environmentalandeconomicburdens.However,itspositionseemedtosoftenon25JunewithastatementbytheTripartiteCommission,whichinformedofareductionofthepopulationintheDadaabcampby150,000peoplebytheendof2016,asaresultofvoluntaryreturntoSomalia,relocationofnon-Somalirefugees,de-registrationofKenyancitizenswhoregisteredasrefugees,andapopulationverificationexercise.ThenumberofreturnsincreasedbetweenJune andmid August, with over 10,000 refugees returning home.25 Since the beginning of voluntaryrepatriation in 2014, over 30,000 Somalis have returned – 24,000 of them in 2016.26 However on 29August,Jubalandauthoritiesannouncedthetemporarysuspensionofvoluntaryreturnsoverthelackofabsorptioncapacityforthereturnees,notablyinalreadydenselypopulatedareas,suchasKismayo.
AccordingtoUNHCR,themajorityofSomalirefugeeshaveindicatedtheirintentiontoreturntoLowerJuba(61%),Bay(17%),MiddleJuba(9%),Banadir(9%),Gedo(4%),andotherareas(1%).Theseareasareaffectedbytheongoingconflictandtheprovisionofsocialservicesislimited.RelativestabilitywillnotbesufficienttoencourageSomalirefugeesfromDadaabtoreturnhome.AvailabilityofsocialservicesinSomalia,includingeducation,willbeessential,particularlyforthosefamilieswhosechildrenhaveaccesstoeducationinthecampinKenya.Itisalsofundamentaltothepreventingofyouthradicalization.
MIXED MIGRATIONDespite the challenges faced by refugees and migrants from the Horn of Africa, their number is increasing
25OCHASomalia,AugustHumanitarianBulletin.
26http://www.voanews.com/a/somalirefugeesleavingkenyaduetothreatsandpressureunsays/3480706.html
22
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
at an unprecedented rate, particularly in regards to irregular migrants arriving in Yemen.27Thenumberofestimatednewarrivalsthere inJuneandJulywere14,373and12,750respectively,constitutingthetwohighestrecordsofarrivalinonemonthsince2006whenUNHCRbegancollectingstatistics.28 These figures reflectmostly economicmigrants (and someasylum seekers) fromEthiopia (86%) followedbypeoplecomingfromSomalia(14%).29ThisspikehasbeenattributedtoageneralbeliefthatthecrossingtheborderillegallyfromYemenintoSaudiArabiaiseasierduringthemonthofRamadan,whichfelloverJune–Julythisyear,aswellasthecommonmisperceptionthatcrossingintoSaudiArabiaiseasierduetoinsecurityandlaxbordercontrolresultingfromitswarwithYemen.NewarrivalstoYemencontinuetolandbyseainrecordnumbers,andhumanitarianactorsareengagedinenhancingawarenessontherisksofmovementstoYemen,asitisnotaplaceofsafetyorsecurity.
Manyofthepeopleonthemoveleavebecauseofeconomicandclimaterelatedfactors,andtheycomprisemainlyofthefollowinggroups:Sudanese,Eritrean,andSomalinationals;andyouthgroups,mostlymale.Howeverhighnumbersofunaccompaniedchildrenarealsopartofthesepopulations’flowsandroutesi.e.eithertheEasternroutetoYemenacrosstheGulfofAden,orthenorthernroutetoEuropethroughthe Mediterranean.
ByearlyOctober,314,004refugeesandmigrantshadarrivedinEurope,ofwhom5.6percentareEritrean,2.9percentSudaneseand2.3percentSomali,accordingtotheIOMdatabase.MoremigrantsandrefugeesfromtheHornofAfricaarechoosingtouseEgyptascrossingpointratherthanLibyaduetotheprevailinginsecurityinLibyaandtheprotectionriskfacedbythemigrantsandrefugeesthere.
Refugeesandmigrantsarehighlyvulnerableandexposedtoprotectionrisksandhumanrightsviolations,oftenunprotectedby lawsoncetheycross internationalborders.Journeysformigrantscontinuetobeperilous. According to the IOMmissingmigrantswebsite, 348migrants from theHornofAfricawerereportedtohaveperishedduringtheirrespectivejourneysthisyeartodate30,andmanyothersremainunaccountedfor.AccordingtoUNHCR,80personshavebeenreportedasdrownedormissingontheirwaytoYemencrossingtheGulfofAden.Whilethemajorityofrefugeesremaindisplacedwithintheregion,manyareembarkingon thesehigh-risk journeys, crossingmultiplebordersat thehandsof smugglersandtraffickers.Theyareexposedtoprotectionriskssuchasdetention, lackofdocumentation,hunger,malnutrition,torture,kidnapping,gender-basedviolence,andviolenceatthehandsorarmedgangs,andinYemen,war.
PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS
Overview:On-goingconflictandethnically-motivatedviolenceintheEastAfricanregioncontinuestobecharacterizedbythedeliberatetargetingandharmofcivilians.Serious internationalhumanitarianandhumanrightslawviolationsareoccurringonacontinuousbasis,inaregionthatsuffersfromaclearlackofaccountabilitymechanismstoendandpreventtheoccurrenceofsuchviolationsagainstcivilians.
In Burundi,theAssociationfortheProtectionofHumanRightsandDetainees(APRODH)hasidentified
27Irregularmigrantsdonotincluderefugeeswhoarepartofthesemixedflows,andenterirregularlyalongsidemigrants.
28ThesefiguresarecollectedandcompiledbyUNHCRYemen
29http://www.regionalmms.org/monthlysummary/RMMS_Mixed_Migration_Monthly_Summary_June_2016.pdfhttp://regionalmms.org/monthlysummary/RMMS_Mixed_Migration_Monthly_Summary_July_2016.pdf
30http://missingmigrants.iom.int/latest-global-figures
23
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
14newmassgravesinseveralpartsofthecountry.31Civilsocietyactorsarespeculatingthatthesegravescontain the remains of those arrested or abducted by government and law enforcement forces andthe alliedmilitiaof Burundi’s ruling party’s youth league, the Imbonerakure, all ofwhich are accusedofperpetratingawiderangeofhumanrightsviolationswithimpunity.HumanRightsWatch(HWR)hasdocumentedcasesofwomenactivistsorwomenrelatedtomembersofoppositionsgroupsbeingrapedinfrontoftheirchildrenbytheImbonerakure,andinothercasesinfrontofthepolice.32Betweenmid2015andmid2016,OHCHRdocumented651casesofpoliticallymotivatedtorturebygovernmentagents(policeandthemilitaryintelligence),againstciviliansaccusedofbeingmembersofrebelandoppositiongroups.33 Since the endof July, children living in the streets havebeen subjected to arrest, detentionandforcedreturntotheirhomevillages,withnoreintegrationplanandsupport.UNICEFandpartnersdocumented75suchcases,primarilyboysinBujumburaMairie,NgoziandGitegaprovinces.Throughthetechnicalcommitteeonchildrenlivinginthestreets,collaborationwithgovernmentofficialsisongoingtolocatethechildren,provideappropriateprotectionsupport.UNICEFpartners(FENADEBandTerredesHommes),havesofarsecuredthereleaseof22boys.
In Ethiopia,protestsinAmharaandOromiaregionshadhadanimpactonthedeliveryoffoodassistance.Therearereportsofcasualtiesamongprotestorsandsecurityforces.OHCHRhascalledupontheEthiopiangovernmenttopermitthedeploymentofindependentobserversintothecountrytoassessthehumanrightssituation.34On9OctobertheGovernmentofEthiopiadeclareda6-monthsStateofEmergency.
In South Sudan,therecontinuetobereportsofgraveviolationsofinternationalhumanitarianandhumanrights law against civilians, including killings, rape, abduction, and recruitment of children by armedactors.MedicinssansFrontieres(MSF)hasprotestedagainstthepreventionofciviliansaccessinghealthfacilitiesinLeer,WauandtheEquatorias.35UNICEFhasannouncedthat650childrenhavebeenrecruitedas child soldiers by different armed groups since the beginning of 2016, in addition to approximately16,000childrenwhohavebeenrecruitedsincetheconflictbrokeoutin2013.36Some8,971childreninthecountryhavebeenidentifiedbeingunaccompaniedandseparatedchildren(UASC)-andhavingbeenforciblyseparatedfromtheirfamilies.
AccordingtotheUNSecretaryGeneral’sreportonconflict-relatedsexualviolence,humanrightsmonitorsdocumented 194 incidents of conflict-related sexual violence affecting 280 persons in 2015; amongsurvivorswhoreportedtoserviceproviders,25%werechildren.Alarmingreportsofsexualviolence,suchasrape,gangrapeandsexualslavery,continuetoemerge,particularly inJuba,southernUnity,andenroutetoUgandainthewakeoftherecentfighting.However,thedocumentedcasesdonotcapturethefullscaleoftheproblem,duetothemanybarrierssurvivorsfaceiftheytrytoseekhelp.WomenobligedtoleaveProtectionofCivilian(PoC)sitesduetoshortagesoffoodandfirewoodareparticularlyatrisk.WomenandgirlsinIDPlocationsalsofaceincreasedrisksofGBVlinkedtocongestionandpoorlydesignedfacilities,suchaslatrines.
In Sudan, the IndependentExpertonthesituationofhumanrights, inhisreporttotheHumanRightsCouncil in July 2016, expressed concerns about continuing human rights challenges, including humanrightsviolationsandabusesinconflict-affectedareas(theJebelMarraareaofDarfurandtheTwoAreas),
31http://www.ibtimes.co.in/rightsgroupclaimstohavediscovered14massgravesacrossburundi691250
32https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/supporting_resources/burundi_compendium_2016_web_version_4.pdf
33OHCHR,17June2016,apportannuelduHaut-CommissairedesNationsUniesauxdroitsdel’hommeetrapportsduHaut-Commissariatauxdroitsdel’hommeetduSecrétairegénéral
34http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=20396&LangID=E
35http://www.msf.org/en/article/south-sudan-access-essential-healthcare-dramatically-reduced-due-increased-violence
36http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/hundreds-children-recruited-armed-groups-south-sudan-violations-against-women-and
24
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
perpetratedbybothStateandnon-Stateactors.Compoundedbyinter-communalclashes,thishasresultedin large-scaledisplacementof civilians and relatedPoC concerns regardingdisplacedpersons.Healsopointedoutagrowingconcernaboutthe“pervasiveactions”of theNational IntelligenceandSecurityServicethatareexemplifiedbywidespreadreportsofarbitraryarrestsandincommunicadodetentions
FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION
Overview: The number of food insecure people in the region facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC 3 and 4) levels, and who are in urgent need of assistance, has doubled in the last 12 months from 11 million in September 2015 to 23.4 million people currently.TheworstaffectedcountriesareEthiopia(9.7millionpeople),SouthSudan(4.79millionpeople),andSudan(4.42millionpeople).Keyareasofconcernarethepreviouslydrought-strickenpartsofEthiopia,Sudan,Somalia, SouthSudan,Burundi,Djibouti,andKaramojaregioninUganda.
Thefoodsecuritysituationislikelytofurtherdeterioratethroughtheendoftheyear.GHACOFprojectsbelowaveragerainfall intheeasternagro-pastoralsectorcoveringSomalia,Djibouti,partsofEthiopia,Kenya,Uganda,andSouthSudan.Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsector,whichmayleadtofloodingandlandslidesinwesternpartsofUganda,Ethiopia,andKenya,aswellasinthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareas.
UNICEFreportsaheightenedmalnutritionsituationintheregionincludinganunprecedentednutritioncrisis inSouthSudan.Sixoutof theeight IGADcountries in theregion (SouthSudan,Sudan,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Somalia(IDPs),andpartsofKenya)areonhighalertforacutemalnutrition.SouthSudan,NorthWestKenya(Turkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit)andSomalia(inparticularIDPsites)havecontinuedtoexperienceaseriousnutritionaldeterioration,whilstinEthiopia,highnumbersofpeoplecontinuetobeadmittedforacutemalnutrition,althoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimprovedduetotheaveragetoaboveBelg harvest.
FOOD INSECURITYIn Ethiopia,despiterecentimprovementsduetoanaveragetoaboveaverageBelgharvest,9.7millionremainfoodinsecure.37WiththeJunetoSeptemberrainson-goingandfloodingincreasingvulnerabilityinmidandlowerareasofthecountry,afurtherdeclineinfoodinsecurityisexpectedaftertheMeherharvestinOctober/November 2016.However,many of the areasworst-affected by the 2015 ElNiño-induceddroughtwillcontinuetoexperienceCrisis(IPCPhase3)outcomes,atleastthroughSeptember2016,ashouseholdscontinuetofacesignificantdifficultyinmeetingtheirbasicfoodneeds.Furthermore,Southernpastoralandagro-pastoralareasofEthiopiariskexperiencingbelow-averagerainfallinthelastquarterof2016.Thismayleadtoanearlierandworsethannormaldeteriorationoflivestockbodyconditionsandlivestockproductivity.AccordingtoUNICEF,thenumberofPriority1hotspotshavereducedto206(from219 inMarch2016).However,highadmissions foracutemalnutritioncontinuealthough thenutritionsituationhasslightlyimproved.Inaddition,anestimated4millionchildren(anincreasefrom1.3millioninJanuary2016)willrequireschoolfeedingforthenewacademicyearstartinginSeptember2016.
37Mid-YearReviewoftheHumanitarianRequirementsDocument,Aug2016
25
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
FOOD INSECURITY
Food security condition1: None or Minimal2: Stressed3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/FamineNo data
Estimated number of food insecurepopulation as of Dec 2015
Estimated number of food insecurepopulation by early 2016.
XX
Current number of food insecurepopulationXX
XX
Food security condition1: None or Minimal2: Stressed3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/FamineNo data
Estimated number of food insecurepopulation as of D
Estimated number of food insecurepopulation
XX
Current number of food insecurepopulationXX
XX
Food security map (April-June 2016)
Food security map (June - September 2016)
SOMALIA
SUDAN
KENYAUGANDA
SOUTH SUDANETHIOPIA
DRC
DJIBOUTI0.27M
0.64M
4.42M
4.79M
0.39M
0.95M
2.29MBURUNDI
4.46M
10.2M
ERITREA
Creation date: 10 Oct 2016 Sources: FSNWG Monthly Update: Food & Nutrition Security Situation, FEWSNET
9.7M
1.25M
0.39M
4.42M
4.79M
1.5M
0.27M
5.90M
SOMALIA
SUDAN
KENYA
UGANDA
SOUTH SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
DRC
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
BURUNDIRWANDA
1.1M
Source: FEWSNET: http://www.fews.net/east-africa/key-message-update/august-2016-0
26
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
FOOD INSECURE POPULATION (‘000)
0
5m
10m
15m
20m
25mSOMDJIBDI
SSD
SUD
UGAKEN
ETH
SEP-16JUL-16APR-16FEB-16DEC-15NOV-15OCT-15SEP-15
UGAKENDRCETHSOMSUDBURDJISSD
37.2% 29.9% 12.9%2.6% 1.0%
10.7% 9.9% 9.5%
7.3%
Food Insecure population as percentage of total population as of Sep 2016
Population in IPC Phase 3&4 (Sep 2015 - Sep 2016)
South Sudanfacesitsworstfoodinsecuritysituationsincetheoutbreakoftheconflictin2013with4.8 million people facing Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurityasof theendof July2016.FoodpricesinsomeareashavemorethandoubledbetweenJuneandJuly2016.LargeareasofGreaterUpperNileandGreaterBahrelGhazalregionsfaceEmergency(IPCPhase4)foodinsecurity.InNorthernBahrelGhazalsorghumpricesinAweilwere1,099percentabovethefive-yearaverageinlateAugust,reflectingthegravityofthesituation.Malnutritionhasincreasedbeyondemergencythresholds(above15percent)inallstatesexceptCentralEquatoriaandLakesandthesituationisexpectedtodeterioratefurtherinthecomingmonths.AccordingtotheNutritionCluster,thenationalaverageGlobalAcuteMalnutrition(GAM)ratesis18.1percent;thehighestratesfoundinNorthernBahrelGhazal(33.3percent),UnityState(26.2percent),WarrapState(23.1percent),andWesternBahrelGhazalState(20.6percent).More than 4.4 million people in Sudan faced Crisis and Emergency food insecuritylevelsbyJuly2016,exacerbatedbythe2015ElNiño-relateddroughtandprotractedconflictresultingindisplacementandthedisruptionof livelihoodsandmarkets.Despite recentflooding inKassala, Sennar, SouthKordofan,WestKordofanandNorthDarfur states thataffected160,000people, rainsduring themainseason insummer 2016 are expected to contribute to better production prospects. As a result food security isexpectedtoimprovewiththecomingharvestforthosewhoselivelihoodsarenotseverelyconstrainedbyconflict.UNICEFreportsahigherpeakinsevereacutemalnutrition(SAM)admissionsinJanuary-June2016comparedtothesameperiodin2015andtheMinistryofHealthrecordedthehighestSAMrates(7percent)inEastDarfurStateasofJuly2016.ThisincludesSouthSudaneserefugeechildren.
In Somalia, as of August 2016, 1.1 million people were facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels (IPC3and4)especiallyfromamongtheprotractedIDPcaseloadwithseverelyconstrainedfoodsecurityand income opportunities. An additional 3.9million people require livelihood support. A significantlybelowaverage2016Guharvest(whichaccountsfor75percentoftotalannualproduction)duetobelowaverageanderraticrains fromApril-June2016affected foodavailabilityandtranslated into foodpriceincreases, including inHiraanwherefloodsdestroyedmorethan80percentofcrops. Inaddition,theupcomingDeyrrains(whichaccountfor25percentofannualproduction)arelikelytobebelowaverage.It isalarmingthatagropastoralareas(north-west,southandcentral regions)havefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015withacorrespondingnegativeimpactonfoodsecurityconditions.Poorruralhouseholdsintheseareasareheavilydependentonmarkets,whicharevulnerabletodisruption
27
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
causedbyconflict,civilinsecurityandsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiesfromtheworldmarket.AccordingtoFEWSNET,foodsecurityisexpectedtodeterioratethroughoutmuchofSomaliafromOctober2016toJanuary2017,especiallyinthepastoralandagropastoralareasthathavebeenaffectedbypoorseasonalperformancesinceMarch2016.UNICEFwarnsthatSomaliaisina‘sustained’criticalsituation,andincreasedmonitoring(duetothebelowaverageGuharvestandlikelybelowaverageDeyrrains)hasindicatedcriticalnutritionlevelsinsixoutofthetwelveIDPcampssurveyed,whiletheresultsfromtherestofthecountryhavenotyetbeenreleased.
In Kenya, food insecurity has more than doubled - from 600,000 (Aug 2015 - March 2016) to 1.25 million people (August 2016 – Feb 2017)accordingtotheresultsoftherecentjointshortrainsassessmentreport.Themain drivers of food insecurity are below-average 2016 long rains characterised by poor spatial-temporaldistribution, livestockandcroppestanddiseases;andelevatedfoodprices.AccordingtotheAugust2016MinistryofHealth(MOH)report,thenumberofchildrenrequiringtreatmentforSAMwashighestinTurkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabitcounties.
In Burundi 1.5 million people (including 400,000 severely food insecure), face Crisis and Emergency food insecuritylevels,despitefairseasonBharvestsinthecountry.Foodpricesareexpectedtoincreasewiththeforthcomingleanseasonasofmid-September2016largelyduetofoodunavailability,currencydevaluationandinflation.UNICEFreportsrisingadmissionfiguresforchildrensufferingSAM.
In Uganda, as of August 2016 the number of people facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels stood at 392,909duetothepoorperformanceofthelongrainswhichledtobelowaverageharvests,foodunavailabilityinthemarketsandincreasingfoodprices.InKaramojaregion,theJune2016FoodSecurityNeedsAssessment(FSNA)reportfound50percentofthepopulationtobefoodinsecure(12percentseverely);whileWFPandUNICEFreportthedistrictsshowingthehighestmalnutritionratesare:Moroto(GAM13.7andSAM3.4percent),Kotido(GAM12.1andSAM3.5percent)andNapak(GAM13.6andSAM2.5percent)districts. Itshouldbenotedthathighstuntinglevels(over30percent) inthesamedistricts indicatechronicunder-nutritionrequiringtheneedformulti-sectoral, long-terminterventions.Mosthouseholdslackappropriatestoragefacilitiesleadingtoincreasedpost-harvestlosses,whichfurtheraffectsfoodavailability. In Djibouti, as of August 2016, some 270,000 people were facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels following two seasons of induced dry conditions in southeastern pastoral areas (Dikhil and AliSabieh)andObockpastoralareas.DespitegoodMarch-JuneDiraac/Sugumrains,whichgenerallyimprovedpasture,livestockbodyconditionsandproductivityinthecountry,pastureconditionsdidnotfullyrecoverintheseareas.TheJuly-SeptKaran/Karmarainsareexpectedtoimprovethesituationfurther,butwiththecontinuingleanseason(June-September),poorruralandurbanhouseholdsmayfinditincreasinglydifficulttoaccessdailywage/labouropportunities.Familiesareextremelyvulnerableasaresultofdroughtconditionsthathavepersistedsince2007andthelossoflivelihoodsthishascaused.Thecountrysuffersfromlimitedcopingoptions,highfoodprices,inadequateaccesstobasicwater,sanitationservicesandhealthcare;anda social safetynetprogrammewithvery limitedcoverage. In its2016appeal,UNICEFreportsthatmalnutritionamongchildrenunderfiveisa“silentemergency”inDjibouti.Anestimated17.8percentofchildrenunder-5yearsofagearewastedand5.7percentsufferfromSAM(abovetheWHOemergencythresholdsofrespectively15and3percent).
MALNUTRITIONIn Ethiopia,highadmissionsforacutemalnutritioncontinuealthoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimproved due to the average to above Belg harvest, and priority 1 hotspots reduced to 206. Whiletheestimatednumberofchildren that require treatment forsevereacutemalnutrition (SAM) in2016decreasedfrom458,000to420,000andthoseinneedoftreatmentformoderateacutemalnutritionfrom
28
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
2.5millionto2.36million,supportforthecontinuumofcareremainscriticaltoavoidincreasedmorbidityandmortality.
KenyasawadeteriorationofthenutritionsituationinTurkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit.ResultsoftheGovernment-ledmulti-agencyLongRainsAssessment(LRA)releasedon12thAugust2016indicatethattheoverallcaseloadsofacutelymalnourishedchildrenhasincreasedby19percentcomparedtosixmonthsago(from266,100inFebruary2016to337,300inAugust2016).
Somaliaisinasustainedcriticalsituation,withincreasedmonitoringduetothebelowaverageGu harvest andlikelybelowaverageDeyr rains. The post Guassessmentindicatedcriticalnutritionlevelsin6outofthe12IDPcampssurveyed,whiletheresultsfromtherestofthecountryhavenotbeenreleasedyet.
South Sudansawaseriousdeteriorationofthenutritionsituationinthelastmonths.ThelastfoodsecurityandnutritionmonitoringsystemindicatedthatJonglei,EasternEquatoria,UpperNile,WesternBahrelGazalandWarraphaveamalnutritionprevalenceabovetheemergencylevelof15percent,Unity26.2percentandNorthernBahrelGazal33.3percent.Thisisconsistentwithincreasedadmissioninnutritionprogrammingandnutrition surveys conducted (24outof 29 surveys conducted in 2016where abovetheemergencylevel).Over362,000childrenareestimatedtobesufferingfromSAMduetothesteadilydeterioratingfoodinsecurity,displacement,andthedestructionofhealth,waterandsanitationfacilities,alongwithunderlyingissuesofsub-optimalinfantandyoungchildfeeding(IYCF)practices.
Sudansawanearlierandhigherpeakinadmissionsduringtheleanseasoncomparedtopreviousyears,includingmalnutritionadmissionsofalmost50percenthigher thanthesameperiod in JuneandJulyinWestDarfurStateincomparisontothesameperiodin2015.38KaramojainUgandasawmalnutritionprevalencethatremainedalertlevelduringthelastassessment.
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
Overview: Simultaneous disease outbreaks have affected the region in parallel with the El Niño weather events. The biggest health concerns in the region at the present time are Cholera and Acute Watery diarrhoea (AWD). Inadditiontothis, simultaneousdiseaseoutbreaks, includingyellowfever,measles,andChikungunyavirus,havefurtherchallengedtheregions’alreadyoverstretchedhealthcarefacilities.Furthermore,spikesinmalariacaseshavealsobeenreportedinBurundi,easternDRCandinSouthSudan,whereisthetopcauseofmorbidityintheIDPsandinthenon-conflictaffectedstateswith1.3mncasesreportedthisyear.
Complexcross-bordermobilitydynamicsandBordercommunitiesengageindailycrossingsfortradeandlivelihoodspurposesmakeoutbreakresponsechallenging,ifnotwellmonitored,couldmakethespreadofoutbreakarealthreat.Establishingeffectivebordermanagementmechanismsthatallowfreeofhumanmobilitywouldfacilitatedetectionofsuchoutbreakspriortoawidespread.
38OCHASudan,WeeklyHumanitarianBulletin,Issue34.
29
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
Malaria: 1.3 Million
Yellow Fever: 731 16Cholera: 18,102 500Measles:10,073 143
DRC
Malaria: 5.4 MillionCholera: 285
BURUNDI
RWANDA
TANZANIA
Cholera: 16,805
Cholera: 156
UGANDA KENYA
AWD: 12,000
ETHIOPIA
SOMALIA
SUDAN ERITREA
Cholera: 2,143 31
Cholera: 13,553 498
Source: WHO,UNOCHA
Disease: Cases xx Deaths xxCOUNTRY
SOUTH SUDAN
DRC
ETHIOPIA
SOMALIA
UGANDA
KENYA
BURUNDI
Cholera: 176DJIBOUTI
DJIBOUTI
SOUTH SUDAN
Communicable Diseases
Cholera:Less than 500500 - 2500More than 2500No data
Malaria
Yellow Fever
Measles
Theimpactoftheseoutbreaksandthehighriskofcontagionintheregionrequiresappropriateinterventionsonkeyissues,suchas:vaccinationcampaigns,scaleupaccesstosafedrinkingwater,andsanitationandhygieneservices,andcommunitysensitizationincludingsettingacross-bordercoordinationmechanism,improvingsystemsofprevention,surveillance,controlandtreatmentofdisease.
Amulti-agencysub-regionalresponseplanisraisingfundstoaddressthecholeraandchikungunyavirusoutbreaks and their risk factors in theMandera Triangle (Mandera Kenya, Belet Haawo Somalia andDolloAdoEthiopia).Theplanrequires$20millionforimmediate,mediumandlong-termmulti-sectoralapproachesbetweenSeptember2016andSeptember2018.
CHOLERA AND ACUTE WATERY DIARRHEA (AWD)There have been 63,22039 suspected cases of AWD, Cholera, or both, recorded in the region since the start of the year to date.ActivetransmissionofthediseaseisongoinginEthiopia,Kenya,SomaliaandSouthSudanandTanzania.InJulyandAugust2016,choleraoutbreaksweredeclaredinBurundi,SouthSudanandUganda.AsofendofSeptember,285casesincluding1fatalitywerereportedin6outof18healthdistrictsinBurundi.
In Ethiopia,more than9,000casesofAWDhavebeen reported infive regions sinceNovember2015,including in Addis Ababa, as of June 2016. Preparedness and response efforts have contributed toreducedmortalitywithaCFRof0.53percent,belowtheemergencythresholdof1percent.However,the likelihoodof transmissionremainshighgiventheLaNiñaeffect,seasonalfloodingandpopulationmovements,includingtherecentinfluxofrefugeesfromSouthSudan.Thebeginningoftheschoolyearwaspostponedto28September(3weeksdelay)duetotheriskofaspreadofAWD.AspertheFederal39Includes18,102casesinDRC
30
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
MinistryofHealth,aworst-casescenariowouldconsistof35,000peopleaffectedbyAWDuntiltheendof2016,with9.8millionpeopleatrisk.
AsofearlyAugust2016,Kenyareported16,805choleracaseswithaCFRof1.5percent.Allagegroupshavebeenaffected,withthemajorityofcasesbeingrecordedamongthe6to15years-old.ThenumberofreportedcaseshasbeenonthedeclineduringAugust,andisnowlimitedtoManderaandTanaRiverCounties.HoweverKenyacontinuestofaceconsiderableriskofnownewcasesinborderareasgivenfluidpopulationmovementsincludinginareasborderingSomaliaandEthiopia,andthescarcityofwaterduetodrought.
AsofendofSeptember,2,143choleracasesincluding31deaths(CFR1.58%)havebeenreportedinSouth Sudan.Atotalof1,724cases, including12deaths(CFR0.69%)havebeenreportedinJubaCounty;20casesand8deathshavebeenreportedinTerekekaCountyinCentralEquatoria;77suspectedcasesand8deathsinfivesettlementareasinDukCounty,Jonglei;114casesandtwodeathsinAwerialCounty;and27casesandonedeathinPageriCounty.
SinceJanuary2016,over14,000caseswerereportedinSomalia,including498deathsin25districtsinsouthernandcentralSomalia.Ofthese,58percentwerechildren.Asignificantdropfromnearly4,000casesinAprilto800inAugusthasbeenreported,followingarobustandtimelyresponsebypartners.CFRstandsat3.7percent,wellabovethe1percentemergencythreshold.Childrenunderfivebearthebiggestbrunt;accordingtoWHO,childrenaccountfor58percentofthecases.Ofallcases,47.3percentwerewomenandgirls(6,178cases).Banadir,Bay,LowerandMiddleJuba,LowerandMiddleShabelle,andHiraanarethemostaffectedregions.
BetweenOctober2015andmid-August,Ugandareported,3,077casesofcholerafrom32districtswithaCFRof3.1percent.Ofthese,45caseshavebeenidentifiedinUganda(44SouthSudaneserefugeesandoneUgandannational),ofwhich42havesuccessfullyreceivedtreatmentandbeendischarged.Congestioninthetransitcentresisoverstretchingsanitationandotherfacilitiesandservicesandpresentingamajorriskofafurtherthetransmissionofcholera.Thehousesofthosewhocontractthediseasearebeingdisinfectedandtheirwatersupplydrainedtopreventfurtherinfection.Adoor-to-doorawareness-raisingcampaignisongoing.Thesaleoffreshproduceatmarketsandalongroadsideshasbeentemporarilyprohibited.ACholeraTaskForcehasbeenestablishedinAdjumanichairedbytheResidentDistrictCommissioner.OralrehydrationsaltshavealsobeenprepositionedinPagirinyaincaseoffurthercases.Continuedsurveillanceandmonitoringofrefugeehealthremainsatoppriority.
In Djibouti,followinganoutbreakofseverediarrheathestateofemergencywasdeclaredbytheMinistryofHealthon8September.On13thofSeptember,therewere176migrantsattheIOMMigrationResponseCenter(MRC)inObockwithhalfofthemundertreatment.7outof32newcasesdiagnosedwerechildren.4outofnewarrivalsareaffectedbydiarrhea.Additionalcasesofseverediarrheawerereportedinothervillages of Orobory, near Obock and in the zone of Fantaherou. One death was registered. The IOMrapidresponseteamandtheequippedvehiclewassenttoObockon6thOctoberwithfoodssupplies,decontaminationmaterials,andchlorinetabletsprovidedbyINSPD(InstituteofPublicofDjibouti).TheoutbreakwascontrolledincollaborationwithMoH.
YELLOW FEVERYellowfevercontinuestobeacontinentalthreat,withmajoroutbreaksinAngolaandDRC,whereover18millionvaccineshavebeendeliveredtodate.WHOhaswarnedthattheglobalstockpileofvaccinesmaynotbe sufficient if simultaneousoutbreakshithighdensitypopulatedareas. InDRC, focusingoncross-borderareaswithAngola IOMstartedanemergencyresponse foryellowfever throughtargetedvaccinationandotherpublichealthmeasures.TheinterventionsfundedbyGovernmentofJapanunderemergencyfundswillsupportDRCforthenextsixmonthstorespondtotheoutbreak.Withthepresence
31
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
ofAedesAegyptimosquitoesinEthiopia,KenyaandSomalia,thereisadangerofyellowfeveroutbreaksspreadingwithin theEasternAfrica regionaswell.Ugandahasalready reported casesof thedisease,althoughthesehavebeencontrolled.
IV. CONSTRAINTS TO RESPONSE
HUMANITARIAN ACCESS
Overview: Access to beneficiaries and humanitarian space across the region is shrinking. This is evident in Somalia,Sudan,andSouthSudan,butisalsothecaseinEthiopia,Burundi,andDRC.Themainimpedimenttothetimelydeliveryofhumanitarianassistancetopeopleinneedremainsinsecurity,withanincreasingnumberofattacksperpetratedagainsthumanitarianworkersandassets.Thesecondmajorobstacle isthe growing number of bureaucratic impediments being introduced across the region, particularly inSouth Sudan and Sudan. Interference in humanitarian operations, illegal taxation, delays of visas andtravel permits, are just someof theobstacles facinghumanitarianorganizations in the region.Accessimpedimentsarenotexpectedtodecreaseoverthecomingmonths,inlightoftheon-goingprotractedconflicts; stalled,and/or fragilepeaceprocesses (Sudan,SouthSudan,Burundi);widespreadeconomiccrises(SouthSudan);andgrowingpoliticalinstability(Somaliaelections).
VIOLENCE AGAINST HUMANITARIAN PERSONNEL, ASSETS AND FACILITIESIn Somalia, during the first sevenmonths of 2016 alone, over 90 violent incidents directly impactedhumanitarianorganizationswerereported,accountingfor7fatalities,8injuries,10arrests,3abductionsand5physicalassaultsanddetentionsofhumanitarianworkers.Atleasthalfofthefatalitiesofhumanitarianworkersrecordedin2016occurredcollaterallywhenstaffmemberswerecaughtupinattacksonpopulatedplaces.AdeadlybombattackinMogadishuon26Julyledtothedeathofahumanitarianworkeralongwith13othersinabombattackinapublicspace.Atleast11UNcontractedsecuritypersonnelwerealsokilledand12sustainedinjuries.TheexplosionalsocauseddamagestoUNstructures.RemoteviolenceincludingmortarbombattacksagainsttheUNwasrecordedinJuly.
Datamadeavailableduringthereportingperiodindicatedthat,in2015,South SudanovertookAfghanistanasthecountrywiththehighestnumberofattacksagainstaidworkers.InSouthSudan,violenceagainstpersonnelandassets,includingambushes,looting,andburglariesandtheftofpersonalbelongingsandvehicles,hasbeenamajoraccessconstraintsincethebeginningof2016,with66reportedincidentsinJulyalone.Duringthefighting,whicheruptedinthecapitalJubaon7-11July,onehumanitarianworkerwaskilled,andhumanitarianworkerswererapedandbeatenduringtheattackontheTerrainHotel.
Thisviolencehashadatremendouseffectonhumanitarianoperations,asWFPandFAOwarehousesandseveralNGOs compoundswere looted throughout the country.40 Violence is also closely linked to thedeterioratingeconomicsituation-inmanycasestheattacksareperpetuatedbyhungrysoldiers.
In Darfur, Sudan,18incidentsagainsthumanitarianorganisationsandUNAMIDwerereportedinJulyand21inAugust,ofwhich2wereagainsthumanitarianorganisations(bothinAugust).Duringthefirsteightmonthsof2016,116 incidentswerereported,ofwhich17 involvedhumanitarianactors.Themajorityof the incidents (85percent) involvedUNAMID,however, it isnotable thatUNAMIDstaffpresence is
40http://www.unocha.org/south-sudan
32
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
aboutfivetimeshigherthaninternationalorganisationstaffpresence(UNAMIDauthorisedfullpresenceis23,74341and4,446staffwereworkingforinternationalorganisationsasofJune201642).MostincidentswerereportedinNorthDarfur.Asaresult,1personwaskilled,18wereinjuredand1waskidnapped,andasubstantialnumberofassets(64)weredamagedorremoved.Thenumberof incidentsreportedpermonthwassignificantlyhigherbetweenAprilandAugustthanduringthefirstthreemonthsoftheyear.Withthestallingofthepeaceprocess,thisnumberisnotexpectedtodeclineinthecomingmonths.
ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS IN EASTERN AFRICA (2009 - SEPTEMBER 2016)
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SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
CHAD
KENYA
SOMALIA
YEMEN
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
LIBYA
SOUTH SUDAN
EGYPT
UGANDA
UNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIA
ERITREA
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
BURUNDI
RWANDA
DJIBOUTI
2
42
51
6
16
81
138
59
2
Total kidnappedTotal woundedTotal killed
LEGEND^ 2013 - 2014 Events^ 2015 - Date Events
XX Total affected
Source: Aid workers security database for the map. OCHA for the trend graph. Creation date: 28 Sept 2016
VIOLENT ATTACK AGAINST AID WORKERS
147 Total killed
181 Total wounded
100 Total kildnapped
7
3
23
18
22
1821
0
5
10
15
20
25
Feb March April May June July AugustSudan (Darfur)
6860
48
7864
90 89
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb March April May June July AugustSouth Sudan
Access incidents in Sudan(Darfur) and South Sudan by month
ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS IN EASTERN AFRICA (2009 - SEPTEMBER 2016)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 As of Sept2016
Killed Wounded Kidnapped Total
Attacks on aid workers in Eastern Africa (2009 - September 2016)
Inci
dent
s
Tota
l affe
cted
Source: AWSD (https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents)
41UNAMID
42OCHASudan,PresenceofAidWorkersinInternationalOrganisations(June2016)
33
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
BUREAUCRATIC IMPEDIMENTSIn South Sudan,theenactmentoftheNGOActandSouthSudanReliefandRehabilitationCommission(SSRRC)Act in February2016has resulted inamore restrictedand controlledhumanitarian space. InJune2016, theRRC introduced the requirement toobtain aRRC clearance letter for allmovementofhumanitarian goodsby roadout of Juba, coupledwith a clearance letter fromSPLA. This has alreadycaused delays and disruptions in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian partners alsocontinuetofacerestrictionsonmovement,despiteassurancesreceivedfromtheGovernment,includingrepeateddenialswhenattemptingtodeliverassistanceoutsideofWautown.
In Sudan, thenumberofNGOsoperatingonthegroundhasdecreased43,ashastheirscopeofaction.NGOsare subsequently submittinga reducednumberofaccessapplications seeminglyas self-limitingpracticestriggeredbytheincreasingbureaucraticimpediments.44InMarch,AprilandMay2016,almosthalfoforganizations(48percent)operatinginDarfur,forexample,reportedbeingunabletocompleteallplannedmissionsduetoaccessconstraints.Compoundedbythereductionofcapacityandpresenceofaidworkersandfunding,accesschallengeshavereducedthereachofhumanitarianassistanceinthecountry.Cross-lineaccesstothenon-governmentcontrolledareasofSouthKordofan,BlueNilehasbeenimpossible since 2011 and JebelMarra inDarfur, havenot received aid.While s scopingmissionwasundertakenwithGovernmentofficialsitistobeseenhowthisscopingmissionmayenablethedeliveryofaidtotheaffectedpeopleintheJebelMarra.Meanwhile,IDPverificationsinNorthDarfurhavebeenputonholdfollowingaGoSdecisioninFebruary2016.
In Somalia,non-statearmedactorshavecontinuedtotargetlocalpopulations,imposingheavytaxesonallproductiveassets,includingfarmlands,crops,fruittreesandlivestock.Thishasreducedtheabilityofthepopulationtopurchaseessentialcommodities.Roadblocksandcheckpointsinsouth-centralSomalia,andinthecontestedBuuhoodledistrictinthenorth,mannedbyarmedactors,continuetoseverelyhamperthe delivery of humanitarian assistance. The threemain roadsmost affected in Somalia remainBeletWeyne-Burlo Burte-Mogadishu, Mogadishu-Baidoa-Doolow and Mogadishu-Barawe-Kismayo. Attacksaredirectedatbothhumanitarianandcommercialtrucks,andincludethepaymentofillegaltaxations,and extrusion and violence against personnel, including summary executions. Road access limitationsincreaseoperationalandtransportationcostsforhumanitarianagenciesdeliveringfoodtoaffectedareas,withsomeconflict-affectedlocationsonlyreachablebyplane.Theattacksalsoincreasecommercialfoodpricesastraderstransferthehighcostofoperatingininsecureareastoconsumers,furtheraffectingthe
43Therearecurrently54internationaland73nationalorganizationsoperatinginDarfur,and144internationaland6,488nationalstaff.Priortothe2009expulsionof13INGOs,therewere17,700nationalandinternationalaidworkersininternationalorganizationsinDarfur,comparedtocurrently4,446aidworkers(adecreaseofover75percent)ofwhom97percentarenationalstaff.
44Sincetheadoptionofthe“2016DirectivesandProceduresforHumanitarianAction”travelpermitstotheDarfurregionareissuedonlyforamaximumdurationofsixmonths,andinstancesofattemptedimpositionofspecificnationaloperatingpartnershavebeenrecorded.Travelpermitstoareasoutsidethestatecapitalsremainedchallengingduetoamongotherissues,thelackofstatelevelproceduralframeworksclearlyprescribingtimeframesandrolesofdifferentauthorities.
Rebel-heldareasinJebelMarraremainedcutoff.SincethebeginningoftheJebelMarrahostilities,accesstocertainareasinDarfurhasbeenrestricted,includingThur,Deribat,Golo,Guldo,andRokero.FurthercomplicatingaccesstoJebelMarrawasthedecisiontohandleaccessrequeststocertainlocationsinJebelMarrathroughHACatthefederallevel.Thehumanitariancommunitymadenumerousattempts,withoutsuccess,toconductcomprehensivemulti-sectorassessmentmissionstoaffectedlocationsincluding,Guldo,Golo,Thur,BooriandWadiBoori.Whereaccesswaspermitted,tightcontrolmeasuresaffectedtheabilitytoconductindependentassessmentsanddeliverassistance.Forexample,on3August,afieldvisittoGolo,ledbytheDeputyHumanitarianCoordinatorforDarfur,withtheparticipationofUNAMID,UNCTmembersandGovernmentrepresentativesfromfederalandlocallevels,waspermittedonlyafewhoursontheground.
WhileanemergencyfooddistributionwascarriedoutbyWFPinFangaSuk,NertitiandThur,lackofaccessandadministrativerestrictions,preventedfooddistributioninGuldo,RokoroorGolo,anddelayedNFIdistributioninGuldotownandThurvillage.
34
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
population’saccesstocommodities.TheMinistryofHealth(MoH)inBurundiisdemandingallhealthsuppliestobeplacedundertheMoH,withhighcharges,andwhichmaycompromisethecapacityforaquickreaction.
FUNDING
Overview: Bothclimate-inducedhumanitarianneedsandconflict-induceddisplacementcontinuetobeunderfunded.Asof30September,US$6.7billion45isneededtomeeturgenthumanitarianneedsacrosstheregion,ofwhichonly48percentisfunded.ThelargestappealsisforEthiopia:TheEthiopiaMid-YearReviewoftheHumanitarianRequirementsDocument(HRD)isseekingUS$1.6bntorespondtotheneedsofthe9.7millionpeopleaffectedbyElNiño.
Despite the large numbers of refugees, the RefugeeResponse Plans (RRPs) are still theworst fundedhumanitarianappealsintheregion.AsofmidSeptember,theRRPsforSouthSudan,BurundiandYementogetherrequirenearly$1.2billion,ofwhichonly24percenthasbeenfunded.TheSouthSudanRefugeePlanhasthelowestfundinglevelat20percent,whiletheYemenRRPreceived27percentbytheendofSeptember.
CERF AND POOLED FUNDSTheEasternAfricaregionisoneofthelargestrecipientsofCERFfunding:sixcountriesintheHornandGreatLakesregioncomprisenearly31percentofallCERFallocationsoverthepastdecade.In2016,theregionreceivedover$131millioninCERFfunding,andSudanisthelargestrecipientgloballywith$24million.Fiveofthecountriesinthetop10CERFrecipientsof2016arefromthisregion:Sudan$25million,SouthSudan$21mn,Uganda$18mn,Burundi$13mnandSomalia$13mn.
CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016
2006 – 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS:
COUNTRY RR UF TOTAL
CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016:
DJIBOUTI
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN
SOMALIA
SOUTH SUDAN
BURUNDI
Source: OCHA/FTS/CERF
12,985,955
10,995,505
2,002,599
10,991,119
3,998,746
4,998,778
6,991,425
18,000,027
70,964,154 141,373,36270,409,208TOTAL
12,985,955
12,600,313
1,972,054
2,002,599
10,991,119
4,961,689
9,217,722
12,885,332
20,823,623
24,635,432
28,297,524
1,604,808
1,972,054
962,943
4,218,944
12,885,332
20,823,623
17,644,007
10,297,497UGANDA
KENYA
DRC
RWANDA
ERITREA
0
50m
100m
150m
200m
250m
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total CERF received in the last 5 years
XX - Total
28,738,892
39,207,403
40,492,656
51,609,637
83,211,092
160,796,084
162,339,221
238,304,796
241,222,981
273,203,630
304,673,692
0 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m
SUDAN
DRC
ETHIOPIA
SOMALIA
SOUTH SUDAN
KENYA
UGANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
RWANDA
RR UF
45SomaliaHRPfundinghasbeenadjusteddownwardsby$34.5milliontoreflectrevisedagencyanddonorreportinginFinancialTrackingService(FTS)
35
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
2006 - 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS2006 – 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS:
COUNTRY RR UF TOTAL
CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016:
DJIBOUTI
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN
SOMALIA
SOUTH SUDAN
BURUNDI
Source: OCHA/FTS/CERF
12,985,955
10,995,505
2,002,599
10,991,119
3,998,746
4,998,778
6,991,425
18,000,027
70,964,154 141,373,36270,409,208TOTAL
12,985,955
12,600,313
1,972,054
2,002,599
10,991,119
4,961,689
9,217,722
12,885,332
20,823,623
24,635,432
28,297,524
1,604,808
1,972,054
962,943
4,218,944
12,885,332
20,823,623
17,644,007
10,297,497UGANDA
KENYA
DRC
RWANDA
ERITREA
0
50m
100m
150m
200m
250m
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total CERF received in the last 5 years
XX - Total
28,738,892
39,207,403
40,492,656
51,609,637
83,211,092
160,796,084
162,339,221
238,304,796
241,222,981
273,203,630
304,673,692
0 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m
SUDAN
DRC
ETHIOPIA
SOMALIA
SOUTH SUDAN
KENYA
UGANDA
BURUNDI
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
RWANDA
RR UF
36
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
V. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTSHumanitarian needs are expected to increase throughout the region, and humanitarian conditions invulnerabilityhotspotsarelikelytodeterioratesignificantly.Theseareasinclude:
•Multiple locations across South Sudan.InNorthernBahrelGhazal(NBeG),theacutefoodinsecurityandmalnutritioncrisisisexpectedtocontinue,whileinWesternBahrelGhazal(WBeG)ongoingconflictandinsecuritycontinuestodrivehumanitarianneeds.OngoingclashesintheEquatoriasarelikelytotriggeradditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborderstoUganda,DRCandCAR.Meanwhile,theGreaterUpperNileregionremainshighlyunstableandfurthertensionsarelikelyandmaycausefurtherdisplacement, including toEthiopiaandSudan.There isalso the likelihoodof thecontinuedspreadofcommunicablediseaseoutbreaks,includingcholera,malaria,measlesandkala-azar.
•Uganda.GiventheunprecedentedinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugeesintheNorth(Adjumani,Kirandongoetc), withmore than 100,000 South Sudanese refugees arriving in September alone, and structurallyunderfundedRegionalRefugeeAppeal.
•South central Somalia, northwestern Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia areas. The predicted depressed rainfallwillleadtobelowaverageagriculturalproductioninsomeparts;likelytofurtherincreasealreadyalarming food insecurityandmalnutrition levels.At the sametime,enhanced rainfall in theEthiopianhighlandsislikelytoleadtoflooding,landslidesandanincreaseinwater-bornediseases,includingalongriversinsouthcentralSomalia.Increasedoffensives,growingtensions,clanandlocalizedconflictatcountylevelaheadofelections,thereturnofSomalirefugeesfromKenya,couldprovetobeanadditionalstressfactor,andsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiescouldfurthercompoundvulnerabilities.
•Pastoralist areas in the eastern Ethiopia - northwest Somalia border areashavefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015andarelikelytocontinuetobehitbyerraticandbelowaveragerains.
37
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS
Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
No data0.01 - 0.100.11 - 0.200.21 - 0.300.31 - 0.400.41 - 0.500.51 - 0.600.61 - 0.700.71 - 0.800.81 - 0.900.91 - 1.00
Sources: Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) 2016
SUDAN
KENYA
SOMALIA
UGANDA
ERITREA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
SOUTHSUDAN
ETHIOPIA
DJIBOUTI
Diseaseoutbreak
Flooding
Con�ict
Food priceincrease
Con�ict
Food priceincrease
Diseaseoutbreak
Flooding
Con�ict
Food priceincrease
PopulationMovement
PopulationMovement
PopulationMovement
Drought
Drought
Drought
EA: Vulnerability hotspots
38
REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION
http://www.unocha.org/eastern-africa/https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/
eastern-africaUNOCHA ROEA