regional development theory/models 1.descriptive models: answering “what?” variety. 2.positive...
TRANSCRIPT
•Regional Development Theory/models
1.Descriptive models: answering “what?” Variety.2.Positive models: answering ”why ? ”Variety.3.Normative models: answering “what ought” Variety.4.Control model: answering “ How to “ Variety.
Descriptive Models
1. Stages of Regional Development Models. (Williamson 1965)
2. Central place theory and Rank-size rule. ( Christaller 1935, Berry 1915)
3. The concentrated spatial dispersion model.
4. The core-periphery model.
Positive Models
1. Factor price equalization theorem.2. Classical Location Theory.3. Neoclassical Regional Growth Model.4. Cumulative Causation Model.5. Linkage Effect Theories and Industrial linkage
model.6. Post-keynesian Model.7. Uneven Regional Development Theory8. Multisectoral Models.
Normative Models
Optimization models (L.P.,NLP)
Control Models
Optimal control models.
• efficiency VS. equity
• spatial inequality1.Disparities among regions
2.Disparities among urban areas
-A prevailing phenomenon, its most serious in developing countries.
-primate cities. ●Regional Dualism
●North-south problem.
Questions:1.What spatial differences?
2.Why spatial differences?
3.How spatial differences?
4.How to control the growth differences?
(What policy instrument available)
What spatial Difference?
Personal income Living expense Labor productivities (wage rates) Social services (cultural & educational
facilities, medical care amecif) Public utilities( public investment) water
supply, gas and electricity supply, telephone service.
What spatial Difference?( 續 )
Job opportunities Population growth Level of education
Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities
1.Primate city (unmanageable urban center) primacy index=p1∕(p1+p2+p3+p4)
(Rondenelli) non-primacy=1∕(1+1/2+1/3+1/4)=0.48 (standard city rank size)
High primacy:0.65~1.00 primacy:0.54~0.65 (Gilbert 1984)Non primacy:0.41~0.54 Low primacy:0~0.41
Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )
Case of Taiwan:
1966 0.482
1971 0.502
1976 0.497
1981 0.483
1986 0.489
Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )
2.High urban unemployment and crowded slums.
3.Premature migration (urban squatters)
4.Housing shortage; insufficient supply of public facilities.
5.Environmental deterioration
6.Social cohesion and political tension
Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )
7.Unbanlanced city system
8. 地方政治參與及自治力弱9.Human needs (human right, social wellbeing)
overall national developmentoverall national development
integration of spatial economyintegration of spatial economy
urban/regional diffusion cannot smoothly proceededurban/regional diffusion cannot smoothly proceeded
Why spatial growth differences
1.Natural resources endowment▪uneven distributed over space
2.Agricultural productivity difference among regions
▪fertility ▪labor productivity ▪locational difference in production function
Why spatial growth differences( 續 )
3.Regional economic structure
4.Transport advantage for interregional trade
5. Agglomeration economies
+_
Factor of economies
(growing inequality)
. selective migration
. capital in-flow
. public policy enhance
eco. growth
. Lake of interregional
linkage
. strong differentiation
in infras.
. Different pop. structure (dependency ratio)
Factor of diseconomies
(growing equality)
. Skilled labor disperse
. Capital being brought back
. Compensatory public policy
. Forging of linkage
. Homogenization in infras.
. more homogenous
pop. structure
6. Policies bias- preferring capital city- urban elite- implicit economic policy
Model 2 South Asia Model 1 Eastern South Asia
Model 3 China mainland
Model 4 East Asia
How to mesure spatial growth difference?
Coefficient of variance
Vuw =
Vw =
Z(Yi-Y)²/N
Y
Z(Yi-Y)²Pi/P
Y
How to mesure spatial growth difference?( 續 )
Mean square deviationMSD=1/n ∑(Yi-Y)²
Mean DeviationMD=1/n ∑ Yi-Y
Coefficient of FlorenceF=1-1/2 ∑ Xi-Xj Xi=Xi/∑Xi
GINI CoefficientG=1/2 ∑∑Xi Xj yi/xi - yj/xj
i j
How to mesure spatial growth difference?( 續 )
Theil coefficientT=1/n ∑ ( xi/μ )㏒( xi/μ ) = ( 1/n∑xi ㏒ xi-μ ㏒ μ ) /μ
Log coefficient of variation
∑( ㏑ xi- ㏑ x)²
x
區域差距衡量指標1.Williamson coefficient
V= Vw=
2.Mean Deviation( or weighted M.D.)M=(∑ Yi-Y /N) Mw=(∑ Yi-Y Pi/P)
∑(Yi-Y)²/N
Y
∑(Yi-Y)² Pi/P
Y
Y Y
N
2
3.GINI coefficient of concentration
GY= ΣXi - Yi N
N+1o G≦ Y 1≦
4.Arkinson Index ( 由 SWF)
I = 1 - 〔 Σ( ) ㏒ 〕Y
Yi1 - i
Yi
1 - i1
o G≦ Y 1≦
5.Kutznst Index
TDM = Σ | fi - Yi | TDM 不均度
6.Pareto Distribution coefficient
Pk = Pi K - a
a > 1 不均 ; a < 1 不均
7.Primacy Index
Po - Io =P1 + P2 + P3 + P4
P(or )
P1
P
8.Theil Index
T = 1 - ㏒ N + Σ Yi ㏒ Yi = Σ yi ㏒ N Yi
10%
8.Osbima Index
OI = Y
Y70%
Job opportunity index
1976 1986
Taiwan Area 1.00 1.00
Northern Region 1.37 1.21
Central Region 0.81 0.83
Southern Region 0.79 0.89
Eastern Region 0.49 0.74
Northern / Eastern 2.80 1.64
Year
Regions
Index = (Emp)﹝ i / (pmp)i / (Emp)﹞ ﹝ t / (pmp)t ﹞
15 1
0 5 0
-5
-10
-15
-201976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
Time
Northern R.
Southern R.
Central R.
Eastern R.
Regional Income Index
1976 1986 2000
Taiwan Area 100 100 100
Northern Region 141 127 111
Central Region 72 75 89
Southern Region 81 90 99
Eastern Region 61 68 84
Northern / Eastern
2.3 1.9 1.3
Year
Regions
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Time
Northern R.
Southern R.
Central R.
Eastern R.
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Taiwan Area
Index
Williamson coeffiecients (1965)
How to control (public policy instruments)
Regulation Incentive VS. punishment Institution infrastructure