Regional climate modeling,Regional climate modeling,update on the TFRCD and update on the TFRCD and

CORDEX CORDEX

Filippo Giorgi*, Colin Jones**Filippo Giorgi*, Colin Jones***Abdus Salam ICTP*Abdus Salam ICTP

**SMHI**SMHI

JSC-31, Antalya, 15-20 February, 2010JSC-31, Antalya, 15-20 February, 2010

Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling

(TFRCD) • Mandate (1 year): Design a framework to

– Evaluate and possibly improve RCD models and techniques– Provide a coordinated set of RCD-based projections/predictions

for regions worldwide– Facilitate the communication with the impact community and the

involvement of the research community from developing countries

• Membership (December 2008)– F. Giorgi (co-chair), C. Jones (co-chair), J.H. Christensen (DK),

P. Duffy (USA), G. Flato (Can), W. Gutowski (USA), B. Hewitson (SAF), Krishna Kumar (In), W.T. Kwon (Kor), R. Laprise (Can.), C. Menendez (AR), J. Murphy (UK), I. Nyang (Sen.)

• WCRP Connections– WGCM (Giorgi), WGNE (C. Jones)

• Meetings– Toulouse 11-13 February 2009 – Lund, 4-8 May 2009– Teleconference, September 14 2009– Email discussions

Uncertainty inUncertainty inregional climateregional climate

projectionprojection

Emis./Conc.Emis./Conc.(Multiple(Multiple

Scenarios)Scenarios)

AOGCM ConfigurationAOGCM Configuration(Multiple AOGCMs)(Multiple AOGCMs)

Internal variabilityInternal variability(Multiple realizations)(Multiple realizations)

RCD ConfigurationRCD Configuration(Multiple models)(Multiple models)

RCD approachRCD approach(Multiple RCD methods)(Multiple RCD methods)

Regional coverRegional cover(Multiple regions)(Multiple regions)

Sources of uncertainty in RCD-based projectionsSources of uncertainty in RCD-based projectionsThe Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling

Experiment (CORDEX)Experiment (CORDEX)

Systematic ErrorsSystematic Errors(Model eval./impr.)(Model eval./impr.)

CORDEX Phase I experiment design CORDEX Phase I experiment design

Model Evaluation Model Evaluation FrameworkFramework

Climate ProjectionClimate ProjectionFrameworkFramework

ERA-Interim LBC ERA-Interim LBC 1989-20071989-2007

Multiple AOGCMsMultiple AOGCMs

RCP4.5, RCP8.5RCP4.5, RCP8.51951-2100 or timeslices1951-2100 or timeslices

Decadal predictionsDecadal predictions1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-20351980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035

Multiple regions Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa)(Initial focus on Africa)50 km grid spacing50 km grid spacing

Regional AnalysisRegional AnalysisRegional DatabanksRegional Databanks

CORDEX domainsCORDEX domains

NARCCAPNARCCAP

CLARISCLARIS

ENSEMBLESENSEMBLES

RCMIPRCMIP

ARCMIPARCMIP

Other CORDEX activities/issues• Formation of regional diagnostics/evaluation

teams– Compile suitable metrics for model evaluation– Gather relevant observational datasets

• Commitment by CMIP5 global modeling groups to provide fields for model nesting for the selected experiments

• Standardized output format following (as closely as possible) the CMIP5 protocol

• Creation of CORDEX databanks (DMI, KMA)

CORDEX: Progress to date (I)• Publication describing the CORDEX framework

and PHASE I plan.– Giorgi, Jones, Asrar, WMO Bulletin, July 2009.

• Creation of a CORDEX web-site and an email server (IA State)– http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORD

EX.html

• Distribution of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields (SMHI)• Formation of Africa diagnostic team/metrics lead

by B. Hewitson (UCT)– Meeting in Cape-Town (UCT) in April 2010 – Should be in touch with WGCM and WGNE

CORDEX: Progress to date (II)• Numerous CORDEX presentations at major meetings

– WCC, EGU, AGU, GREENHOUSE09 etc.• Purchase of data server at DMI for CORDEX

databank• Many groups have expressed interest in participating

in CORDEX.• Regional CORDEX programs are self-organizing

– Med-CORDEX (Coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs)– Euro-CORDEX (High resolution, dx=10-12 km)

• Several groups completed or are completing the ERA-Interim driven simulations over one or more domains – ICTP/RegCM, SMHI/RACMO, MPI/REMO, HC/PRECIS,

WRF, DMI/HIRHAM, CNRS/Aladin, probably others

Precipitation, 1997-2007

Precipitation, 1997-2007

CORDEX: Progress to date (III)

• A number of CORDEX presentations planned at EGU2010 regional modeling session– Side meeting to review progress and plans for future

simulations

• WCRP workshop planned in June 2010 in Lille (Fr.) to discuss the treatment of regional climate information in the IPCC AR5– Participation of both WGI and WGII experts– Next TFRCD meeting planned

• Workshop planned in spring of 2011 at ICTP for a comprehensive evaluation of the first CORDEX results

The TFRCD: Some considerations (I) • In general, the CORDEX effort has been very

successful– Successful design and implementation of a Phase I plan– Very positive response by the RCD community– Simulations already under way– CORDEX widely advertised at major meetings and

conferences

• The CORDEX effort should definitely be continued and should be overseen by a coordinating body in contact with both WGCM and WGNE

• However ….

The TFRCD: Some considerations (II)

• Only part of the TFRCD members have been regularly active– Some changes may be required?

• Still insufficient involvement of the statistical downscaling, impact and developing country communities

• So far participation to CORDEX has been on a voluntary and cost-free basis– Time may be getting ripe to start “Fund-raising” for

CORDEX

The future of the TFRCD

• What should the TFRCD become?– A WGCM-like working group (within a differently structured

WCRP?)– A small body within WGCM regularly in contact with WGNE

and the JSC– Remain a task force with a focused mandate

• No consensus reached within the TFRCD– Fear that a small body might prevent a wide-ranging

involvement of the scientific community

• Recommendation: Extend the mandate of the TFRCD for another year until CORDEX develops further and then make a more informed decision

THANK YOUTHANK YOU