regional climate change water supply planning tools for ......hist e2000 e2025 e2050 e2075 g2000...

Regional Climate Change Water Supply Planning Tools

for Central Puget Sound

Austin Polebitski andRichard Palmer

Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattle, WA 98105-2700

www.tag.washington.edu

Regional MotivationMultiple agencies and organizations working together to develop data, information and pragmatic tools to assist in water resource and supply planning activities in the region. Regional Water Demand ForecastWater Supply Source Alternatives

Climate ChangeReclaimed WaterSource Exchange StrategiesSmall Water SystemsTributary Streamflows

Research Goal: Provide climate impacted streamflows and meteorological data to Water Demand and Water Supply Committees

DeliverablesMeteorological Variables

Technical memorandum documenting the methods used, key assumptions, QA/QC efforts and results.Database of climate variables for defined scenarios and future years for specific sites.

Streamflow DataTechnical memorandum - for each portion of the WRIAs, documenting the methods used, key assumptions, model calibration and validation, QA/QC efforts and results.For each of the climate change scenarios, database of projected streamflows into local reservoirs.For each of the climate change scenarios, database of projected streamflows associated with environmental flows or other operational components.

Other SupportFramework for estimating potential future climate change impacts on municipal water demand and supply.Support to Municipal Water Demand Forecast and Water Supply Assessment Advisory Committees.Cloud cover StudyGroundwater Study

Building BlocksConceived as Team Building and as an ‘Ice-Breaker’

became extended, heated issue.Uncertainty: As with other science, our understanding will improve with time, uncertainties exist, but much is knownImpacts organized into six areas:

TemperaturePrecipitationSnowpack and GlaciersStreamflowsSea Level RiseSalmonid Habitat

Areas of interestGlobal trends National trends Pacific Northwest trendsPuget Sound Region

Available at: http://www.climate.tag.washington.edu

(Source: http://agexted.cas.psu.edu/FCS/mk/images/BuildingBlocks.jpg)

Building Blocks

Building Block 1 – The global average temperature has increased during the 20th century and is forecasted to increase in the 21st century.

Building Block 13 –Climate change, as described in Building Blocks 1-12, is forecasted to contribute toward stream flow and temperature conditions that have been shown to negatively impact freshwater and estuarine habitat of most species of salmonids in the Puget Sound watersheds.

Tech Memo #1 - Literature Review

Climate Change PrimerHistorical perspective of incorporating climate change into water resources planning

Discussion of GCMs, Downscaling Methods, and Hydrology Models

Incorporating uncertainty

Tech Memo #2 – Downscaling MethodologyDetails downscaling method in two different formats:

An in-depth discussion of the method and a case-study provided as a journal paperAn overview discussion of the method accompanied by a process diagram

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Impact Assessment Methodology

Tech Memo #3 – Website and Database FunctionalityDetails construction and functionality of web-based database for climate variablesWebsite contains historic and climate impacted precipitation and temperature data for 15 meteorological stations within planning areaSimulated historic and climate impacted streamflows are accessible via plotting function

Tech Memo #4 – Meteorological Variables

Evaluation of impacted climate data

Contains a quality control discussion of data and computer code used in generation of the dataProvides an assessment of future projections and likely impacts to temperature and precipitation for our region

Change in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (WY 1928 - 2004)2000

Meterological Stations in WRIAs 7 - 10

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Projected Changes in Average Monthly Temperature Relative to Historic (1928-2004) Climate for Western Washington

Tech Memo #5 – Streamflow GenerationEvaluation of climate impacted streamflows

Contains a detailed discussion on model development, calibration, and comparison to historic observed records Provides an assessment of future impacts to streamflow for the Tri-County Region

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Figure 7: Hydrograph of Sultan Reservoir Inflows for the 2000, 2025, 2050, and 2075 periods.

HIST E2000 E2025 E2050 E2075 G2000 G2025 G2050 G2075 I2000 I2025 I2050 I2075

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Tech Memo #6 and Executive Summary

Final Summarizing DocumentsIntegrate documents produced by CCTCMake suggestions for incorporating available data and uncertainty into water resources planning

Use of Data By Stakeholders and in Other Research

Water Supply Systems Modeling and Impacts

Each utility is evaluating system yield with climate impacted data

Water Demand Modeling Regional water supply will use temperature and rainfall elasticities

Wastewater ManagementEvaluate base waste water demand with regional demand model

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Related Issues

Evaluate impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall events and associated runoff -15

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Over 20 half-day meetings/ workshops to establish study objectives and approachSignificant participation from over 15 regional agencies and stakeholdersConsensus achievedResults incorporated into evaluation of supply and demand alternatives in regional process

http://www.tag.washington.edu/projects/kingcounty.html

Thank you!

www.climate.tag.washington.eduCCTC Work:

www.tag.washington.eduTAG Work:

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