Regional Center on Urban Water Management (RCUWM-Tehran)

RCUWM & IDI Introduction Drought Indices

& Risk Mapping

Coping Strategies

Regional Centre on Urban Water Management (RCUWM- Tehran) under the auspices of UNESCO

Established in February 2002

Objectives • Provide scientific and technical information

• Promote research activities

• Effective capacity building activities

• Cooperate with international and regional institutions

RCUWM – Tehran Activities and Achievements

Afghanistan Bangladesh Egypt Germany

India Kuwait Lebanon Oman

Pakistan Syria Tajikistan Yemen

Mem

ber C

ountrie

s

RCUWM – Tehran Activities and Achievements

UNESCO-IHE IWA UN-Water UN-HABITAT

Coming Members:

China

Japan

Armenia

Bahrain

Indonesia

Malaysia

Sri Lanka

Turkey

Ios &

Regio

nal M

em

bers

The International Drought Initiative (IDI) was approved by

the 19th IHP Intergovernmental Council held in Paris,

France July in 2010.

Arid and Semi-arid Areas Approximately half of the Earth’s land surface and 20% of its population

Hyper-arid zone P/PET < 0.05

Arid zone 0.05 < P/PET < 0.20

Semi-arid zone 0.20 < P/PET < 0.50

Dry-sub humid zone 0.50 < P/PET < 0.65

Humid zone 0.65 < P/PET

More than 20 Countries

10% of Land Surface

About 350 Million Population

Average Annual Rainfall ~200 mm

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Middle East and Iran

Precipitation

ارومیه

12 Nov. 2014

Level: 1270.53

ارویه

09 June 2012

Level: 1274.5

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Main Reasons: 1- Decrease in precipitation and stream flow to the Lake 2- Increase in water consumption at the basin level

Average Precipitation

during 1951 to 1995

385 mm

18% Decrease

Average Precipitation

during 1995 to 2013

317 mm

Total Potential Renewable Water Resources

7024 MCM

20% decrease

Multivariate Standardized Rainfall-Runoff Index

Copula Copula is multivariate distribution function in order to describe the dependence between random variables. Spanish: cópula es una función de distribución multivariada de probabilidad cuyas marginales son distribuciones uniformes. Las cópulas describen la estructura de dependencia entre variables aleatorias

A copula is the joint distribution of random variables U1;U2; . . . ;Up, each of which is marginally uniformly distributednas U(0; 1).

• The term copula is also used for the joint cumulative distribution function of such a distribution,

C (u1; u2; … ; up) = P (U1 ≤ u1; U2 ≤ u2; …;Up ≤ up) :

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 100 200 300 400 500

Si

Ri

Rank Scatter Plot

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

Standard Stream Flow Index (SSFI)

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P (X≤x ,Y≤y) = C [F(X),G(Y)]

X: Rainfall Variables, Y: Runoff Variables

F(X),G(Y):Rainfall and Runoff distribution (Log-Normal and Gama)

C: Copula function (marginal distribution)

P (X≤x ,Y≤y):Joint distribution

MSDI using Copula concept

MSDI in comparison with SPI and SSFI

Drought Indices

Drought Risk Analysis

T (D≥d or S≥s or P≥p) T (D≥d and S≥s and P≥p)

Drought Risk Map with 10 Years Return Period Urmia lake basin

LOGO Pressure and Release Concept

Drought Risk

Exposure Coping Capacity

Hazard

(Lack of Precipitation)

R= H x V x E/C

Vulnerabilities and

Root Causes

PAR

RISK

Coping capacity Exposure Vulnerability Hazard

Precipitation

Soil wetness

Temperature

Water use Efficiency

Groundwater Dependency

Socio/Economic

Land use

Urban/Rural Population

Structural Measures

Non-Structural Measures

a) Risk assessment

b) Damage

mitigation

c) Institutional

arrangement

d) Communication system

e) Equipments

h) Education and training

g) Information sharing

f) Activity planning

i) Review

Total

Basic

Regular

Applied

Overall score Fire Protection Agency, Ministry

of General Affairs, 2004

Strategy of Coping with Drought