regional and local impacts of climate change...forecast: western kansas. kansas climate projections....
TRANSCRIPT
Regional and Local Impacts of Climate Change
N. A. BrunsellDept. of Geography, KU
Global Warming “Debate”
1) Is the global climate changing? (Detection)
2) How much change is due to humans? (Attribution)
3) How much will it change here? (Prediction)
4) What should we do about it? (Implication)
Basic Climatology
www.ipcc.ch
Precipitation
Tem
pera
ture
Courtesy Sharon Billings, KBS and EEB
Courtesy Sharon Billings, KBS and EEB
1941
1966
2002Courtesy Matt Dunbar, KBS and Dept of Geography
Atmospheric Carbon
Leaf Carbon
www.pbrc.hawaii.edu/bemf/microangela/stomata7.htm
Atmospheric Carbon/Water
Leaf Carbon
Water
www.pbrc.hawaii.edu/bemf/microangela/stomata7.htm
Is precipitation changing?
Global Historical Climate Network (1850 – 2006)
Sedan, KS
Caveat: interpreting trends
Caveat: interpreting trends
Trends in precipitation
Trends in precipitation
Topeka gets 19% in Spring38% in Summer
Precipitation and Vegetation
PPT
Ts
Veg
Evolution of Global Climate Models (GCM)
www.ipcc.ch
Is precipitation 'supposed' to be changing?
Global Climate Models don't Agree for Kansas
www.ipcc.ch
Examine the GCM Output
GCM Output (A1B) 21 Models used in IPCC Report
Does GCM output agree with observations?
GCM Model Avg.GHCN Observations
Temperature
Does GCM output agree with observations?
GCM Model Avg.GHCN Observations
Forecast: Western Kansas
Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Western Kansas (37N, 95W)
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = 330S = 0
IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase
(summer -3% P)
Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Western Kansas (37N, 95W) + 1.5 C all months
+ 5% Precipitation
D = 383S = 0
2050
+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 433S = 0
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = 330S = 0
IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase
(summer -3% P)
+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D = 383S = 0
2050
+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 433S = 0
Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Western Kansas (37N, 95W)
2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D =463S = 0
+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D =540S = 0
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = 330S = 0
IPCC A1B ScenarioMiddle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase3% annual P increase
(summer -3% P)
Irrigation in Garden City
1972
1988
Ashland, KS Water Use by Phreatophytes
Upland
Lowland
Nelson Environmental Study Area
Vulnerability and Adaptation
DroughtExtreme heatFlash flooding TornadoesWinter weatherFood production
Drought
Potential Impacts on Yield
Urbanization
Urbanization
Greensburg
Before
After
Tornado Climatology
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/tornadoes.html
Feedlots
Huge source of carbon
Evaporation is about 1.5 times annual rainfall
Small scale
Very messy field work
Spatial Variability
Scaling UpGreenhouse gases are increasing
The ultimate impact will be governed by land cover and microclimatic interactions
To predict the impacts at a specific place and time is complicated
Many local scale processes are missing
Conclusions
Ultimately, it's a scale issue: how to represent these processes at a much larger scale
Overall picture is correct, now we're fine-tuning
Conclusions
Thank you!