region: east la code: e07000073resi-analysts.com/wp-content/uploads/lga/reports/harlow.pdf · 2019....
TRANSCRIPT
Region: East LA Code: E07000073
Harlow
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data
New homes made up 9.7% of the total 1,228 sales recorded by the Land Registry in 2018. 22.7% of total
sales were flats, and 64.3% were under £300,000. By comparison, 66.0% of transactions nationally were
under £300,000.
1. Affordability
According to 2016 ONS data, the average price per square metre was £3,311 with the average price per
bedroom £71,005 - the corresponding national average figures were £2,463 and £55,087.
The average house price in Harlow in 2018 was £272,000. The median ratio of house prices to local
earnings is 9.9. This is higher than the England average of 8.0, suggesting high house prices are likely to be
an issue.
£0
£100,000
£200,000
£300,000
£400,000
£500,000
£600,000
Detached Semi Terrace Flat All
Average house prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
Un
der
£5
0k
£5
0-6
0k
£6
0-7
0k
£7
0-8
0k
£8
0-9
0k
£9
0-1
00k
£1
00-1
10
k
£1
10-1
20
k
£1
20-1
30
k
£1
30-1
40
k
£1
40-1
50
k
£1
50-1
60
k
£1
60-1
70
k
£1
70-1
80
k
£1
80-1
90
k
£1
90-2
00
k
£2
00-2
20
k
£2
20-2
40
k
£2
40-2
60
k
£2
60-2
80
k
£2
80-3
00
k
£3
00-3
20
k
£3
20-3
40
k
£3
40-3
60
k
£3
60-3
80
k
£3
80-4
00
k
£4
00-4
50
k
£4
50-5
00
k
£5
00-5
50
k
£5
50-6
00
k
£6
00-7
00
k
£7
00-8
00
k
£8
00-9
00
k
£9
00k-
1m
£1
-2m
£2
-5m
£5
-10
m
Ove
r £
10m
No
. of
sale
s, 2
01
8
Sales distribution by house price
New flats Existing flats New houses Existing houses
Source: VOA Private Rental Market Statistics
Source: MHCLG Live Tables on Rents, Lettings and Tenancies; VOA Private Rental Market Statistics
Private rents in Harlow in the 12 months to September 2018 ranged from £700 per month for a lower
quartile one bed to £1,700 for an upper quartile four (or more) bed property. The overall median private
rent was £900, which is much higher than the England average of £690, suggesting high private rents are
likely to be a significant problem.
Note: Social rents based on simple average of RP and local authority stock, or RPs only where no local
authority stock (e.g. LSVT).
Social rents are approximately 47% of private rents in Harlow. Average social rents have increased 9.1%
over the past five years, compared with 9.3% at national level.
1. Affordability
£0
£200
£400
£600
£800
£1,000
£1,200
£1,400
£1,600
£1,800
One Bed Two Bed Three Bed Four+ Bed All
12
m t
o S
ep-1
8, p
er m
on
th
Private rents
Upper Quartile
Median
Lower quartile
£200
£250
£300
£350
£400
£450
£500
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
17
-18
, p
er m
on
th
Social rents
Local authority Private registered provider
£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
£700
£800
£900
£1,000
Private RP LA
per
mo
nth
Rent comparison
Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data; VOA Private Rental Market Statistics; Bank of England
The median full-time earnings in Harlow were £31,033 in 2018, compared to £29,869 in England. Half of
local full-time workers earn between the lower quartile of £22,085 and the upper quartile of £44,565,
compared to national figures of £21,273 and £42,285.
This chart shows a simple comparison of initial mortgage costs and rents for a range of scenarios to
represent potential FTB decisions.
Note: Buying scenarios based on average terraced house value (flat in London), lower of £600k (HTB limit)
or average new build for HTB, and includes +3% mortgage rate stress test.
1. Affordability
NOTE: Earnings estimated due to incomplete survey data.
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,0002
00
2
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Med
ian
, res
iden
ce-b
ased
, an
nu
al, F
T
Earnings trend
Harlow England
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
10
th p
erce
nti
le
20
th p
erce
nti
le
25
th p
erce
nti
le
30
th p
erce
nti
le
40
th p
erce
nti
le
Med
ian
60
th p
erce
nti
le
70
th p
erce
nti
le
75
th p
erce
nti
le
80
th p
erce
nti
le
90
th p
erce
nti
le
Res
iden
ce-b
ased
, an
nu
al, F
T
Earnings distribution, 2018
£0
£500
£1,000
£1,500
£2,000
£2,500
60% LTV 75% LTV 90% LTV Help to Buy 1 bed LQ 2 bed median 3 bed UQ
Buying Renting (private)
Mo
nth
ly c
ost
Buying vs. renting
Actual Stress test
Source: HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
Source: UK Finance
1. Affordability
House prices in Harlow in December 2018 are higher than their 2007/08 peak by 46.0%, compared with
England at +27.3%. This suggests that rapid house price growth through the current cycle is likely to be a
significant local problem. Values in 2018 decreased by 1.7% annually.
An indicative rental yield (based on ave 2 bed rent vs. ave flat sales value) for Harlow is 6.4%, compared
with 3.4% nationally.
This chart shows the change in mortgage lending across the postcode districts in Harlow. The total volume
of lending in the 12 months to Q2 2018 was £1,883 million, compared with £1,817 million a year earlier, a
change of +3.6%.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Dec
-95
Dec
-96
Dec
-97
Dec
-98
Dec
-99
Dec
-00
Dec
-01
Dec
-02
Dec
-03
Dec
-04
Dec
-05
Dec
-06
Dec
-07
Dec
-08
Dec
-09
Dec
-10
Dec
-11
Dec
-12
Dec
-13
Dec
-14
Dec
-15
Dec
-16
Dec
-17
Dec
-18
Ho
use
pri
ce in
dex
(Se
p 2
00
7 =
10
0)
House price trend
Harlow England
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
CM17 CM18 CM19 CM20 CM21 CM92
Ch
ange
in a
nn
ual
len
din
g(y
ear
to Q
2 2
01
8 v
s. Q
2 2
01
7)
Mortgage lending
Source: Council Tax Base
Source: 2001 and 2011 Census
1. Affordability
0.9% of the PRS households in Harlow comprised only students in 2011, compared with 3.7% in England,
suggesting students are not a significant part of the local PRS market.
10.0% of households in Harlow were rented privately according to the 2011 Census, compared to 4.3% in
2001. The England average changed from 8.8% to 15.4% over the same period.
0.2% of residential properties in Harlow were recorded as second homes in 2018 according to Council Tax
Base data. This is significantly lower than the England average, suggesting high levels of second home
ownership are unlikely to be a problem, though other sources should be considered.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Seco
nd
ho
mes
as
% o
f al
l
Second homes
Harlow England
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2001 2011
% households in PRS
Harlow England
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
2001 2011
% all student PRS households
Harlow England
Source: Social Mobility Index
Source: ONS Local Labour Market Indicators
By comparison, employment in England changed from 73.6% in 2014/15 to 75.3% in 2017/18;
unemployment changed from 5.3% to 4.2%; and economic inactivity changed from 22.2% to 21.3%.
Employment in Harlow changed from 69.7% in 2014/15 to 77.3% in 2017/18; unemployment changed
from 6.4% to 5.0%; and economic inactivity changed from 24.1% to 18.7%.
1. Affordability
Harlow received an overall standardised score of 11.7 in the 2017 Social Mobility Index, compared to the
England average of zero. Harlow ranks as 117/324 for overall score across all English local authorities for
which data is available. Local house price affordability could be a further barrier to social mobility in this
area.
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Overall score Early Years Schools Youth Adulthood
Stan
dar
dis
ed s
core
(En
glan
d =
0)
Social mobility index
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
2014/15 2017/18
Employment %
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014/15 2017/18
Unemployment %
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2014/15 2017/18
Inactivity %
Source: ONS Regional Accounts
Gross value added at district level was £23,099 per person per year in 2016, compared with £19,806 a
decade earlier. By comparison the figure for England changed from £21,773 to £27,108 over the same
period.
Gross domestic household income in Harlow was £22,960 per person per year in 2016, compared with
£17,254 in 2006. By comparison the figure for England changed from £15,349 to £19,878 over the same
period. Based on this measure, Harlow is a relatively affluent area.
1. Affordability
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,0001
99
7
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
per
per
son
per
yea
r
Gross household income
Harlow England
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
per
per
son
per
yea
r
Gross value added
Source: MHCLG Live Tables 253a and 122
Source: MHCLG Live Table 122; MHCLG Live tables on Energy Performance of Buildings Certificates; Council Tax Base
2. Availability
The measures of 'conventional' housebuilding for Harlow are shown in this chart. The 'official' MHCLG
supply figures for 2017-18 recorded 266 new build completions (excluding any conversions or change of
use). Over the same period 260 completions were recorded in the 'unofficial' quarterly data, along with
160 starts.
This chart shows total supply for Harlow. The 'official' MHCLG supply figures for 2017-18 recorded 281 net
new homes in total (including conversions and change of use, and after demolitions), and the Council Tax
Base changed by +511 homes in the same period.
EPCs issued for new homes are used as a lead indicator of supply and can often be used to estimate net
supply: 398 were recorded in the 2018 calendar year in Harlow.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
Ho
mes
per
yea
r
Housebuilding (conventional supply)
Net supply: new build Starts Completions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
Ho
mes
per
yea
r
Housebuilding (total supply)
Net supply: total Change in council tax base EPCs for new build
Source: MHCLG Live Tables 100 and 122
Source: MHCLG Live Tables 1006C, 1006aC and 1007C
The net new supply in Harlow increased the existing housing stock by 0.8% in 2017/18. This is lower than
the England average of 0.9%, suggesting the level of local supply is likely to be an issue. Note that the
Government's national target of 300,000 homes per year is equivalent to 1.3%.
The previous analysis in this section covers delivery of all tenures / by all types of developer. This chart
shows only delivery of affordable housing. In Harlow 64 new affordable homes were completed in
2017/18: 0 for social rent, 34 for affordable rent and 30 intermediate affordable homes.
2. Availability
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Net additions as % of stock
Harlow England
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Ho
mes
per
yea
r
Affordable delivery
Social rent Affordable rent Intermediate
Source: ONS 2016-based Sub-national Population and Household Projections
Source: MHCLG Housing Delivery Test 2018 Measurement
2. Availability
Population growth in Harlow is set to average 486 people per year from 2020 to 2041, with projected
average annual household growth of 260 households over the same period. The average household size in
2020 is projected to be 2.45, and 2.36 in 2041.
The most recent figures show that Harlow delivered fewer new homes than required by the MHCLG
Housing Delivery Test. 846 net new homes were supplied over the past three full years, compared with the
1,008 required. The result of the test is that an additional buffer is added to future land supply
requirements.
2.30
2.32
2.34
2.36
2.38
2.40
2.42
2.44
2.46
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
An
nu
al c
han
ge
Household and population projections
Households Population Household size (right-hand axis)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Housing delivery test
Required Delivered
Source: 2011 Census
Source: 2011 Census
Source: 2011 Census
2. Availability
These three charts show property characteristics for Harlow from the 2011 Census, compared to the
national averages.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Owned outright Owned with amortgage or
loan
Sharedownership
Social rented Private rented(market)
Private rented(other)
Living rent free
Tenure
Harlow England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Detached Semi-detached Terrace Flat
Property type
Harlow England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
No bedrooms 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms 5 or morebedrooms
Number of bedrooms
Harlow England
Source: HM Land Registry Price Paid Data
Source: 2011 Census
2. Availability
Turnover in Harlow was 5.0% in 2017 (the latest year with full data). This is significantly lower than the
average before the global financial crisis (turnover from 2001-05 averaged 7.7%). For comparison turnover
in England was 4.4% in 2017.
The proportion of homes with no usual residents in Harlow was 3.2% according to the 2011 Census. This
level is lower than the England average of 4.3%.
Note that the above analysis includes both standard Land Registry 'A' data and additional 'B' data (which
covers reposessions, mortgaged buy-to-let and corporate transactions). In Harlow in 2017 there were 106
'B' sales, 8.3% of the total.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Sale
s as
% o
f p
riva
te s
tock
Turnover
Harlow England
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Detached Semi-detached Terraced Flat Shared dwelling
Homes with no usual residents
Harlow England
Source: Council Tax Base
Source: 2011 Census
26.4% of homes in Harlow had two or more spare bedroom, according to the 2011 Census. This is lower
than the England average, suggesting the distribution of housing is unlikely to be a significant problem.
2. Availability
1.8% of residential properties in Harlow were recorded as vacant in 2018 according to Council Tax Base
data. This is approximately the same as the England average, suggesting high levels of vacant homes may
be a problem.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Vac
ant
ho
mes
as
% o
f al
l
Vacant homes
Harlow England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Harlow England
Occupancy rating
-2 or less
-1
0
+1
+2 or more
Source: ONS Population Estimates
Source: ONS Local Area Migration Indicators
The overall population in Harlow changed by -0.2% due to migration in the 12 months to June 2017: -0.6%
from domestic sources and +0.3% from international. By age, the largest single contribution to growth was
from 23 year olds.
Overall, the population of Harlow grew between 2001 and 2017, changing by +9.4%. Overall growth at
national level over the same period was +12.5%. By age, the largest single contribution to growth was
from 90+ year olds.
2. Availability
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Ch
ange
in p
op
ula
tio
n, 2
00
1-1
7
Single year of age
Population change by age, 2001-17
Harlow
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Net
mig
rati
on
, 12
m t
o J
un
e 2
01
7(+
ve =
in)
Single year of age
Net migration by age
Harlow
Source: Council Tax Base
Source: Council Tax Base
Source: Council Tax Base
3. Suitability
These three charts show property characteristics for Harlow from the 2018 Council Tax Base, compared to
the national averages.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Pre 1900 1900 to1918
1919 to1929
1930 to1939
1945 to1954
1955 to1964
1965 to1972
1973 to1982
1983 to1992
1993 to1999
2000 to2009
2010 to2018
Age of housing stock
Harlow England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
A B C D E F G H
Council Tax band
Harlow England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
A B C D E F G
EPC rating
Harlow England
Source: 2015 Indices of Multiple Deprivation
Source: Annual Population Survey (Headline estimates of personal well-being)
3. Suitability
Over all four categories combined, local people have approximately average levels of well-being in
2017/18, compared to the national figures.
41% of the LSOAs in Harlow are in the three most deprived deciles, based on the 2015 indices of multiple
deprivation. This suggests it is an area of high relative deprivation (the national average is 30%).
Residents of Harlow scored their life satisfaction at 7.70 out of 10 on average in 2017/18, compared to the
England average of 7.68. The corresponding figures for 2011/12 were 7.77 and 7.41 respectively.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011/12 2017/18
Sco
re o
ut
of
10
Personal well-being estimates
Life Satisfaction
Worthwhile
Happiness
Anxiety
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Most deprived << Deciles >> Least deprived
Nu
mb
er o
f LS
OA
s
Deprivation
Source: ONS Population Estimates
Source: ONS 2016-based Population Projections
This suggests that the local population may include a lower than average level of students, along with a
lower than average level of older people.
The 65 and over population of Harlow is expected to grow by 50.0% from 2017 to 2041, according to the
latest ONS population projections. This is compared to an overall population change of +14.6%. The
corresponding national figures are growth of 51.7% and 12.1% respectively.
The population structure of Harlow comprised 7.7% aged 18 to 24, 52.7% aged 25 to 64, and 15.3% aged
65 and over in 2017. The corresponding figures for England were 8.7%, 51.9% and 18.0%.
3. Suitability
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+
Po
pu
lati
on
by
age
as %
of
tota
l, 2
01
7
Single year of age
Population structure
Harlow England
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ All 65+ All ages
Pro
ject
ed c
han
ge in
p
op
ula
tio
n: 2
01
6 t
o 2
04
1
Population growth: older people
Harlow England
Source: ONS Old Age Dependecy Ratios
Source: ONS Life expectancy at birth and age 65
3. Suitability
In Harlow in 2019 there are expected to be 242.8 people of state pension age for every 1,000 working-age
people, compared to an average of 286.8 at national level. By 2041 these rates are projected to reach
298.4 and 366.4 respectively.
The average life expectancy for people born in 2015-17 in Harlow is 78.5 years for men and 83.2 years for
women. The equivalent national figures are 79.6 and 83.1 respectively.
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
Life expectancy at birth
Harlow:Males
England:Males
Harlow:Females
England:Females
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Life expectancy at age 65
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4002
01
6
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
Peo
ple
at
stat
e p
ensi
on
age
per
1,0
00
wo
rkin
g-ag
e p
eop
leOld age dependency ratio
Harlow England
Source: DfT Journey Time Statistics
Harlow has above average public transport connectivity compared to the national figures, with an average
travel time to reach the nearest 8 key services of 14.5 minutes (England average = 17.7).
3. Suitability
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Public transport /Walking
Car Public transport /Walking
Car
Average to reach nearest of 8 key services To nearest employment centre with at least5000 jobs
Trav
el t
ime,
min
ute
s
Travel time
Harlow
England