reflections on key messages in recent reports [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
IPCC AR4, WG-I: Understanding and attributing climate change
• Global scientific community is more than 90% certain that global warming is due to anthropogenic activities
• Awaiting WG-II report
Stern Review
• Impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed – the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most.
• BAU climate change will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20%
The accountability framework shifts from a Welfare framework to a Liability framework
Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Reducing energy poverty, and enhanced electricity access for developmental goals is projected to increase electricity requirements during 2007-2030 in developing countries
Coal based power is projected to remain the primary source for countries like China, India and South Africa - mainly due to energy security considerations
Coal use becomes cleaner in 2030 under BAU, but not clean enough
Climate security would need much deeper cuts in global GHG emissions by 2050
• Energy efficiency
• Decarbonizing energy
• CO2 capture and storage
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030
% H
H w
ith
ele
ctri
city
acc
ess
People's Republic of China India South Africa Brazil
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Economic output (GDP/capita, 1995 USD)
Ele
ctri
rc p
ow
er c
on
su
mp
tio
n
(kW
h/c
ap
ita
/yea
r)
People's Republic of China India South Africa
2030
2030
2030
Energy Security and Climate Security
• GDP becomes less energy intensive, with China and India leading the way
• Energy and CO2 emissions do not decouple under BAU scenario
Decoupling Economy, Energy and Carbon
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
TP
ES
per
GD
P (
Ind
exed
199
0=10
0)
Brazil People's Republic of China India South Africa
0
50
100
150
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250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CO
2 p
er T
PE
S (
Ind
exed
199
0=10
0)
Brazil People's Republic of China India South Africa
CO2 and local pollutant emissions (e.g. SO2, NOX and particulates) decouple in BAU
Many conjoint mitigation opportunities exist. However some are expensive than those for direct mitigation of local pollution.
Who pays for the cost differential?
50
100
150
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350
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
CO2 Indexed 2000=100
SO
2 In
dex
ed 2
000=
100
Brazil People's Republic of China India South Africa
2030
2030
2030
20302000
Decoupling Global and Local Emissions
China
0
100
200
300
400
500SO2/TPES
TPES/GDP
CO2/GDP
CO2/TPES
Renewable share in powergeneration
Investments in new powerplants
Efficiency of electricitygeneration (fossil)
Per capita electricity
HH electricity access
2000 2010 2020 2030
Sustainable Development Indicators for China
India
0
100
200
300
400SO2/TPES
TPES/GDP
CO2/GDP
CO2/TPES
Renewable share in powergeneration
Investments in new powerplants
Efficiency of electricitygeneration (fossil)
Per capita electricity
HH electricity access
2000 2010 2020 2030
Sustainable Development Indicators for India
• The ‘non-climate’ route for international climate change policy making and negotiations is important
• Adaptation to climate change impacts is crucial for developing countries
• Aligning development and climate change solutions is possible, and may be more cost-effective
• Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy security and costs this implies increasing CO2 intensity of energy consumption
• GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond BAU
Conclusions
Adapt as we negotiate• People-centric adaptation in the short-term
• “Adaptation products” needed
• Technology - transfer and cooperation
• Financial resources
• Align development and climate policies
Abate as we negotiate
• Fossil based generation capacities are being added now, avoid lock-ins
• Expand cooperative technology RD&D
• Expand global cooperative mechanisms
• Move beyond a “mere” environmental issue
Dual 2-Track Processes
Thanks