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Reducing vulnerability to space weather
storms: Developing and implementing a preparedness strategy
Birkeland Space Weather Symposium
15 June 2017
Bill MurtaghProgram Coordinator
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSpace Weather Prediction Center
Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation SubcommitteeNational Science and Technology Council
The Case for a national strategy
• Societal and economic impacts – reliance on
advanced technology
• Global impact
• Extreme space weather events
• Challenges to our understanding and forecasting of
space weather
The National Strategy
Overview
Societal and economic impacts
Societal and economic impacts - March 2012
7 March 2012: INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight.
Societal and economic impacts – Nov 2015
5
“Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers
during the blackout, which lasted about an hour”
Transformer
damage
Failures of GPS
based positioning
Numerous
Polar flights
rerouted
NOTAM
Flight route restrictions
due to geomagnetic storm
impact on communicationsLoss of Japan’s
ADEOS II satellite
Numerous anomalies
on FedSat and other
Australian satellites
Solar cell damage on
ESA’s Smart-1 satellite
Oilfield services company reported
several cases of survey Instrument
Interference around world
C.R. Luigs drill
ship, loses GPS,
resorts to backup
systems
SatComm and HF
outages
Nuclear power
plants reduced
power due to
geomagnetic
storm
Widespread HF outage
over African continent
SatComm and HF
outages
Over 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Antarctic
Space Weather – Global Impacts October 2003
7
Extreme Space Weather
Carrington Event – Sep 1-2, 1859
Visible Aurora, Sep 2
The coronal mass ejection speed: ~2900 km/s or 10.5
million km/h
NASA SOHO
Extreme Space Weather 23 July 2012 – dodging the bullet!
Powerful solar flare
on 23 July, 2012…
9
Forecasting Sunspot
emergence and evolution
Active Region Development and Flare Forecasting
Oct 17, 2003
Very limited capability!!!
When and where a
sunspot cluster will
emerge cannot be
predicted
Our ability to forecast the
occurrence and size of a
flare is also very limited
Science challenges
GOES Proton FluxJanuary 20, 2005
X7 flare start: 20/0636 UT and
peaked at 20/0701 UT. The
intense >100 MeV radiation
storm peaked at 20:/0710 UT.
Several polar flights were routed
to the less optimum routes; many
altered flight altitudes. Some
polar routes were abandoned
altogether.
Science challenges
11
• The limited understanding of IMF Bz orientation at CME impact at Earth is perhaps the most vexing problem forecasters face
• It presents a serious limitation to modeling and consequently, mid to long range (1-3 day) forecasting.
Understanding and predicting Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bz)
Evolving Drivers for Space Weather Services
▪ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Reliability Standard
TPL-007-1: Transmission System Planned Performance for
Geomagnetic Storms (Sep 2016)
▪ Space weather in Department of Homeland Security Strategic
National Risk Assessment
▪ Senate bill 141 - Space Weather
Research and Forecasting Act, (Passed Senate May 2017)
▪ International – United Nations: World Meteorological Organization Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather; UN International Civil Aviation Organization; Office for Outer Space Affairs
S.141 - Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act
2 May 2017 – Passed in Senate unanimously
“—In order to continue coordination of executive branch efforts to
understand, prepare, coordinate, and plan for space weather, the National
Science and Technology Council shall establish an interagency working group
on space weather.
National Space Weather Strategy
Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is established
Tasked to develop:
• National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS)
• Space Weather Action Plan
A cohesive all-of-government strategy was necessary to ensure the federal government was positioned to mitigate, respond to and recover from a major space weather storm
29 October 2015 – Release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan
National Space Weather Strategy – StructureStrategy articulates six high-level goals
1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events
2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities
3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts
4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of
Impacts on Critical Infrastructure
5. Improve Space-Weather Services
through Advancing Understanding and
Forecasting
6. Increase International Cooperation
Executive Order 13744 of October 13, 2016 – Coordinating
Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events
“To ensure accountability for and coordination of
research, development, and implementation of
activities identified in this order and in the
Action Plan, the National Science and
Technology Council shall establish a Space
Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation
Subcommittee [SWORM]”
Executive Order 13744 – Coordinating Efforts
to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather
Events
19
R2O – Executive Order 13744
and Action Plan
“Federal and non-Federal
partners must ensure that
research is effectively
transitioned to operational
forecasting centers”
Modelling the electric field in support of
electric power grid
Action 5.5.5 U.S. Geological Survey will identify and
fill gaps in magnetotelluric (MT) surveys of the United
States, beginning with the northeastern United States
and concentrating on geographic regions judged to
have the highest induction hazards.
NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
13-14 Mar 1989 Storm
23 satellites: More than 141 satellite-years
of data!
• GPS/MEO Data now available • LANL/GEO data to follow soon
•
EO Sec. 5(e) Within 120 days of the date of this order, the
DOD and DOC shall make historical data from the GPS
constellation and other U.S. Government satellites publicly
available to enhance model validation and improvements in
space weather forecasting and situational awareness.
DOD, DOE, DOC
The Way ForwardEnsuring effective implementation
• The NSTC SWORM Subcommittee will continue to oversee implementation of Action Plan and the Executive Order
• New SWORM.GOV to be introduced soon
• SWORM will continue to pursue international and public-private collaborations between Government, industry, and academia to enhance observing networks, conduct research, and develop prediction models
“Sunspots and Auroras: A
Message from the Sun”