reducing energy use through transport planning in the ... · land use and travel...
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Transportation leadership you can trust.
Reducing Energy Use through Transport Planning in the United States: Proven and Promising Practices
presented toIEA Experts’ Group on R&D Priority Setting and Evaluation
presented byChris Porter, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
23 May 2013
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Overview
U.S. Context and Trends
Effectiveness of Energy/GHG Reduction Strategies
How do We Get There?
Research Needs
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U.S. energy and climate change mitigation experience
National-scale assessment studies
» Moving Cooler, USDOT Report to Congress, National Renewable Energy Lab - Transportation Energy Futures
State and Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) GHG & energy inventories, mitigation plans, & tools
» Massachusetts, Maryland, Oregon, Southern California, Northern New Jersey
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Transportation declines slightly to about one-quarter of U.S. energy consumption
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Energy consumption by sector, quadrillion BTU
TransportationIndustrialCommercialResidential
28%25%
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (Reference Case)
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Transport energy use expected to hold steady, but modal contributions change
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Energy consumption, quadrillion BTU
Other (+5%)
Rail (+25%)
Shipping & boats (+25%)
Air (+14%)
Commercial trucks &buses (+45%)
Light-duty passengervehicles (-19%)
49%60%
20%29%
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (Reference Case)
9%
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Rapid growth in freight truck activity expected
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Growth in Activity by Mode (index to 2010)
Commercial trucks &busesLight-duty passengervehiclesAir
Shipping & rail freight
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (Reference Case)
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U.S. has low urban densities and high distance traveled
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 10 100 1 000
Population Density (Persons/Hectare)
Africa/Latin America
Asia
Canada/Oceania
Europe
Middle East
United States
Distance traveled, all modes (km/person/day)
Source: CS analysis of UITP Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transport (2001)
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U.S. has >2x distance traveled per capita compared to European countries
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-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
$1 000 $10 000 $100 000
Total Private Vehicle-KM/Capita
GDP/Capita
Africa/Latin America
Asia
Canada/Oceania
Europe
Middle East
United States
Source: CS analysis of UITP Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transport (2001)
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VMT has stopped growing … will the trend last?
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Source: Sundquist, E., State Smart Transportation Initiative, 2013
Total VMT (millions)
VMT per Capita
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Urban development trends are changing –at least in some areas
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Large metropolitan regions with the greatest increase in share of infill home construction
Source: U.S. EPA (2012), Residential Construction Trends in America’s Metropolitan Regions.
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Effectiveness of Energy/GHG Reduction Strategies
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Moving Cooler –GHG reduction potential of ~50 strategies
Travel Reduction
Pricing
Land use and smart growth
Nonmotorized transportation
Public transportation improvement
Regional ride-sharing, car-sharing and commuting
Regulatory strategies
System Efficiency
Operational and intelligent transportation systems (ITS)
Bottleneck relief and capacity expansion
Multimodal freight
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Moving Cooler – sample results
Source: Moving Cooler, Prepared for Urban Land Institute by Cambridge Systematics, 2009
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Total Surface Transportation Sector GHG Emissions (mmt)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
1990 & 2005 GHG Emissions – Combination of DOE AEO data and EPA GHG Inventory dataStudy Baseline – Annual 1.4% VMT growth combined with 1.9% growth in fuel economyAggressive – GHG emissions from bundle deployed at aggressive level without economy wide pricing measures
2005
1990
Study BaselineAggressiveEconomy-Wide Pricing
18%
35%
12%
30%
7%
19%
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Northern New Jersey – 68% GHG reduction feasible by 2050
Source: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Plan developed by Cambridge Systematics for North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, 2012
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-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reg
ion
Ann
ual m
mt
CO
2e (
TO
TAL) 2006 Base
Baseline - All Vehicles
Alternative Baseline -All Vehicles
Passenger Vehicles -Fuels & Technology
Commercial Vehicles- Fuels & Technology
VMT+SystemEfficiency Bundle
2050 Target
-34%
-53%
-62%
+2%
-68%
-80%
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Combined impact of demand management/ efficient driving strategies could be 7-15%
Source: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, prepared by Cambridge Systematics for National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012
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StrategyPercentage of On-Road Energy/GHG Reduction
Pricing
PAYD Insurance (Mandatory) 2.5%
VMT Fee – $0.02-$0.05/Mile 1.0%-2.5%
Congestion Pricing 0.5%-1.1%
Transit Improvements 0.4%-1.1% (2030); 0.6%-2.0% (2050)
Nonmotorized Improvements 0.3%-0.8%
Parking Management 0.3%
Work Site Trip Reduction/Employee Commute Options 0.2%-1.1%
Telework and Alternative Work Schedules 0.9%-1.1%
Ridesharing and Vanpooling 0.1%-2.0%
Carsharing 0.1%-0.2%
Educational and Marketing Campaigns 0.3%-0.5%+
Eco-Driving and Maintenance 1.1%-5.0%
Idle Reduction 0.1%-0.4%
Speed Limit Reduction/Enforcement 1.7%-2.7%
Combined Effects 7.0%-15.3%
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Land use changes are key to long-term benefits
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TRB Special Report 298
(2009)
Moving Cooler (2009)
Growing Cooler (2007)
2050 % new/re-development
41-55% 64% 67%
% of new devel. thatis “compact”
25-75% 43-90% 60-90%
VMT in compactdevelopment
5-25% lower 23% lower 30% lower
Urban light-duty VMTreduction
1-11% 2-13% 12-18%
Transportation GHG/ energy reduction
0.6 – 6.5% 2.0 – 3.4% 7 – 10%
Sources: TRB (2009); Cambridge Systematics, Inc. (2009); Ewing, et al (2007), as summarized in U.S. DOT Report to Congress: Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2010)
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Another look at land use impacts
Source: Built Environment Analysis Tool developed by CS for National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2012
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-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%Modest shift Moderate shift High shift
High shift (noped improv.)
Change in VMT vs. Baseline
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%Modest shift Moderate shift High shift
High shift (noped improv.)
Change in Energy Use vs. Baseline
2030 2050
Shift population from lower-density, single-use areas to higher-density, mixed-use areas (up to 15% in 2030, 30% in 2050)
Pedestrian environment improvements
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Conclusions regarding transportation energy and GHG reduction potential in the U.S.
Recently-adopted fuel economy standards will reduce surface transport energy by over one-third by 2035, compared to a previously flat baseline
More aggressive vehicle and fuel technology strategies could reduce energy use by over half
Land use and travel demand/efficiencies provide smaller, but still important benefits
» Land use could achieve up to 10% reduction in VMT by 2050, 6% reduction in energy/GHG
» Other travel reduction/demand management could achieve 7-15% reduction collectively (surface transportation)
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How do We Get There?
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The U.S. planning context
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• Vehicle and fuel standards and fuel pricing• Transport planning – procedural requirements,
funding, and technical assistance
• Transport investment priorities (non-metropolitan)• Roadway design standards• Freeway/arterial systems management• Roadway and fuel pricing
• Transport investment priorities (metropolitan)• Transit investment• Freeway/arterial systems management• Voluntary cooperation on land use, etc.
• Land use planning• Local transport investment priorities & design
standards• Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure
National (Federal)
State
Regional (MPO)
Local (City, County, Town)
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Some energy reduction measures look familiar…
1. Improved public transit
2. HOV lanes
3. Employer-based transportation management
4. Trip-reduction ordinances
5. Traffic flow improvements
6. Park-and-ride
7. Auto-restricted zones
8. High-occupancy vehicle programs
9. Spatial or temporal restriction on motorized vehicle use of roads
10. Bicycle parking and lanes
11. Idle control programs
12. Extreme cold-start emissions control
13. Flexible work schedules
14. Programs to facilitate non-automobile travel
15. Non-motorized paths
16. Vehicle scrappage
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“Transportation Control Measures” in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments
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… some are fairly new
Demand Management
VMT fees and congestion pricing
Pay-as-you-drive insurance
“Smart” parking management
Dynamic ridesharing
Car-sharing and bike-sharing programs
Real-time, multimodal travel information
Location-based marketing
System Efficiency
Eco-driving with real-time feedback
Dynamic eco-routing
Eco-adaptive traffic signals & corridor management
Low-emissions zones
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Planning innovations – California’s SB 375
All metro areas required to set GHG reduction targets for passenger vehicles for 2020 and 2035 (vs. 2005)
» Met through transport planning and land use strategies
» Target reductions of 5-8% in 2020, 10-15% in 2035 (larger areas)
» Achieve 2.8% of state’s GHG reduction goal for 2020 (5 MMT)
Required to adopt “Sustainable Communities Strategy” as part of Regional Transportation Plan
» Approval by state air agency = environmental review exemptions for certain types of development
» Alternative Planning Strategy (APS) – does not meet target
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Planning innovations –regional visioning and scenario planning
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Existing Conditions& Trends
Community Values
Vision & GoalsBusiness as Usual Scenario
Alternative Scenarios
Scenario ImpactsPerformance
Indicators
Regional VisionStrategy
Development
Regional Plan for Sustainable
Development
Multi-sectoral –transportation, land use, housing, economic development, environment
Extensive public and stakeholder involvement process
GIS-based data and technical tools to support indicator development
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Planning innovations (example) –Sacramento Blueprint
Increased residential density, mixed-use areas, expanded transit
25% reduction in VMT, 15% reduction in CO2 from base case by 2050
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Source: Sacramento Area Council of Governments
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Planning innovations –Transit-oriented development
Federal criteria for transit-supportive land use, plans & policies - required in assessment of new transit project funding since late 1990s
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Source: Denver Regional Transit District
Source: C. Porter
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Challenges to reducing transport energy use
Historically auto-oriented development patterns
Fragmented/multi-level decision-making environment
Strong private property rights ethic
No appetite for Federal requirements or for pricing of externalities
Gas is still cheap
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Opportunities
Shifting demographic trends and lifestyle preferences
Changing economics
Interest and innovations in voluntary, regional-scale planning
“Leader” states stepping in where Federal government cannot
New technology to support travel efficiencies
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Research Needs
Continued demonstration, deployment, and evaluation of new technologies to promote travel reduction/efficient driving
» Pricing (congestion, VMT, PAYD)
» Dynamic ridesharing
» Eco-driving & eco-system operations
» Real-time information
Strategy interactions – land use, transit, pricing, TDM
Long-term impacts of telework, teleshop, etc. (including location decisions)
Urban form – measures and impacts (economic, accessibility, etc.)
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