reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the paris agreement goals
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Post on 12-Apr-2017
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However, known practices could deliver just 21-40% of the needed reductions, even if implemented fully at scale. To meet the full agricultural mitigation target, we need urgent investment in:
We also need to reduce emissions throughout the food system; agriculture, forestry, and land use combined (AFOLU) would need to contribute 7-10 Gigatonnes of mitigation in 2050.
To meet the target for AFOLU, we need to fully use mitigation options that do not
compromise food security:
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1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110Em
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Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the Paris Agreement goalsE.Wollenberg1,20,M.Richards1,20,P.Smith17,18,P.Havlík9,M.Obersteiner9,F.N.Tubiello7,M.Herold22,P.Gerber7,22,S.Carter22,A.Reisinger14,D.vanVuuren15†,A.Dickie2,H.Neufeldt8,B.O.Sander13,R.Wassmann13,R.Sommer3,J.E.Amonette16,A.Falcucci7,M.Herrero6,C.Opio7,R.Roman-Cuesta4,22,E.Stehfest15,H.Westhoek15,I.Ortiz-Monasterio5,T.Sapkota5†,M.C.Rufino4,P.K.Thornton1,10,L.
Verchot4,P.C.West12,J.-F.Soussana11,T.Baedeker21,M.Sadler21,S.Vermeulen1,19,B.M.Campbell1,3,S.Frank9
According to the IPCC scenario that limits warming to 2°C in 2100 . . .
The agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within the 2°C limit
What are the implications of AFOLU mitigation for food security?
We need a sectoral target to assess ambition and measure progress
1 CCAFS:CGIARResearchProgramonClimateChange,AgricultureandFood Security2 CEA:CaliforniaEnvironmentalAssociates3 CIAT:InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture4 CIFOR:CenterforInternationalForestryResearch5 CIMMYT:InternationalMaizeandWheatImprovementCenter6CSIRO:CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation7 FAO:FoodandAgricultureOrganizationof
theUnitedNations8 ICRAF:WorldAgroforestryCentre9 IIASA: InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis10 ILRI:InternationalLivestockResearchInstitute11INRA:FrenchNationalInstituteforAgriculturalResearch12 IONE:InstituteontheEnvironment,UniversityofMinnesota13 IRRI:InternationalRiceResearchInstitute14 NZAGRC:NewZealandAgricultural
GreenhouseGasResearchCentre15 PBL:NetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency16 PNNL:PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory17 ScottishFoodSecurityAlliance-Crops18 UAberdeen:UniversityofAberdeen19 UCopenhagen:UniversityofCopenhagen20 UVM:UniversityofVermont21 WB:WorldBank22WUR:WageningenUniversityandResearchCentre
Author affiliations
119 countries included mitigation in agriculture in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
But how do we gauge the ambition of those commitments?
Agriculture will need to limit its emissions to about 6 GigatonnesCO2e per year by 2030.
This requires mitigation of 1 Gigatonne in 2030 based on our current
trajectory, increasing to
over 2 Gigatonnes
in 2050.
Baseline
2°Cscenario
2°C scenario
Higher levels, like those required to meet the 2°C target, may drive up food prices and therefore reduce calorie availability in food insecure regions.*
Low levels of AFOLU mitigation can be achieved with little impact on food security.
Food security remains higher if all countries participate in AFOLU mitigation.
Lossincalorieavailability(kilocalories/person),comparedtonoAFOLUmitigation
Like soil carbon sequestration
and halting land use change in countries where land is plentiful.
Policiesandstandardsthatsupportmoreambitiousmitigation
Likecarbonpricing,taxes&subsidies
andcropsthatinhibitnitrous
oxideproduction
Promisinglow-emissionstechnicalinnovations
Farmers’capacitytousenewpractices
Throughfinance,incentives&
technicalknowledge
Read more about AFOLU mitigation and food security
*As modeled using a carbon tax.
Read more about the 1 Gt target
AFOLU
mitigatio
n(GtCO2e/year)