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1 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
REDD Abacus SP User Manual and Software
Degi Harja
Sonya Dewi
Meine van Noordwijk
Andree Ekadinata
Arief Rahmanulloh
2 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
1. General Information
1.1 The REDD Abacus Software
The REDD Abacus software is available on the internet. It can be downloaded freely from
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/allreddi/softwares, and available for any
operating system such as Windows, Linux or Mac.
1.2 The Minimum Requirement
REDD Abacus is a light application, so that can be run in computers that have general
specifications. The minimum specifications are:
1. 1 GB Hard disk space (included JVM)
2. Memory Capacity 256 MB
3. Good condition desktop or portable computer, with any operating system (Windows, Linux ,
Mac)
1.3 Software disclaimer and citation
The REDD Abacus software is in the public domain. The users may neither assert propriety rights
thereto nor represent them to anyone as other than World Agroforestry Center produced
programs and cite REDD Abacus as follows:
Example:
This project was analyzed using the REDD Abacus software (World Agroforestry Center 2011,
Bogor, Indonesia: World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) Southeast Asia Regional Program
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/allreddi/softwares).
1.4 How to contact
For additional information and help, please see the REDD Abacus project website:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/allreddi/ or contact these following addresses:
- Degi Harja ([email protected]) for software technical questions
- Sonya Dewi ([email protected]) and Meine van Noordwijk ([email protected]) for
software background and concepts
- Andree Ekadinata ([email protected]) for Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis
- Arief Rahmanulloh ([email protected]) for profitability analysis
2. Getting Started
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There are several installation packages on the website (or distributed CD package) for any
Operating System (Windows, Linux and Mac). Below is the general instruction for each Operating
System:
Windows
The package available in two types, some include a Java Virtual Machine (JVM) and some
without. For those unfamiliar with the term “Java Virtual Machine” we suggested to download
the one include JVM. Otherwise you can have separate Java installation before installing the
REDD Abacus software. The Java software can be downloaded from:
http://www.java.com/en/download/.
After downloading, extract the zip file then double-click the .exe file, follow the instruction on
the installation procedure.
NOTES:
If you have problems with installer file (sometime it is not working on some Windows 7 OS),
please try use the zip package without the installer.
Extract the zip file, and use “run_abacus.bat” file for running the application (double click).
You can create the shortcut to “run_abacus.bat” file by right clicking the file, select “Send to”->
“Desktop”
Linux
After downloading open a shell and, cd to the directory where you downloaded the installer.
At the prompt type: sh ./abacus.bin
NOTES: you need to install Java Virtual Machine (version 1.6 or later)
Mac
After downloading, double-click abacus
NOTES:
Requires Mac OS X 10.0 or later
The compressed installer should be recognized by Stuffit Expander and should automatically be
expanded after downloading. If it is not expanded, you can expand it manually using StuffIt
Expander 6.0 or later.
If you have any problems launching the installer once it has been expanded, make sure that the
compressed installer was expanded using Stuffit Expander. If you continue to have problems,
please contact technical support.
3. Overview
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3.1 The Basic Methods For Estimating Opportunity Cost
Opportunity costs refer to the potential economic gains that could be made if certain types of land
use change are not happening, e.g. as part of an emission reduction program. If the opportunity
costs are low relative to the amount of emission reduction that can be achieved by avoiding this
category of land use change, it may be of interest to stakeholders of emission reduction to offset
the opportunity costs and make contracts that secure that the carbon remains stored. The
difference in economic value ($/ha), per unit avoidable emission (tCO2e/ha) takes the dimensions
of a price ($/tCO2e). If the economic value of emission reduction elsewhere (e.g. on a virtual
‘carbon market’) is higher than the opportunity costs of avoiding emissions in a certain landscape,
it may be financially attractive for all parties to develop contracts that ensure local emission
reduction. Several other elements of price (implementation and monitoring plus transaction costs)
also play a role, but if opportunity costs are higher than going market prices, discussions of
economic incentives for voluntary emission reduction will be a non-starter. A further discussion of
backgrounds is provided in White et al., 2010 and van Noordwijk et al., 2011.
Opportunity cost curves indicate how much emission reduction might be feasible at what price.
The basis for their constructing is [1] The differences in economic value ($/ha) and [2] Time-
averaged C stock (t C/ha) of any type of [3] land use change. The land use change may have
occurred (if the opportunity cost is a retrospective analysis of recent history) or is deemed
plausible in a forward looking scenario of land use change.
REDD Abacus was developed to analyze the opportunity cost of land use changes in a landscape
or area within a period of time and generate the abatement cost curve using
a) A legend that represents land use change from the perspective of economic (‘land use) as well
as carbon storage (‘land cover’) perspectives, and that allows land use change data to be
compiled by a combination of land cover change detection and economic constraints (e.g.
labour requirements in relation to human population density) (see point 3.2.1 for further
explanation of land use system characterization)
b) Typical carbon stock data for each legend unit (see point 3.2.3 for further explanation and
appendix 3 for time averaged carbon stock calculation steps
c) Net Present Value for each land use type, typically using a private (= farm gate) accounting
stance (White et al., 2010) and/or a social (= national economy) one
d) A matrix of land use change values, that are internally consistent and represents either
historical change or a forward looking scenario.
With these inputs, the program performs four steps (Figure 3.1):
1. Convert differences in carbon stocks into estimated emissions (see Appendix 7 for further
explanation).
2. Construct a table of opportunity costs for every type of land use change from the differences in
NPV and C stocks
3. Determine the actual emissions for each cell in the matrix from the area involved and the
emissions per unit area
4. Present the cumulative emission total after sorting by opportunity cost
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Together these four steps lead to a two-dimensional graph charting the opportunity costs of
avoiding deforesting land-use changes against volume of carbon-dioxide equivalent emissions.
source: van Noordwijk et al. 2010
Figure 3.1. Steps in deriving an opportunity cost (OpCost) curve that relates the changes in economic
profitability (net present value) and typical carbon stocks of land-use (LU) systems, to a land-use change
matrix that describes the changes that have occurred (for a retrospective OpCost curve) or might occur
(for a scenario OpCost curve).
As indication of a feasible level of economic incentives, a price level of USD 5/tCO2e, is used as
default leaving some space for transaction and implementation costs (Stern, 2007; Swallow et al.,
2007). The user can easily adjust this price level and evaluate the consequences
Starting The Application and Create New Project
How to go:
Click on the application shortcut to start the REDD
ABACUS application. (each operating system may
have different method for starting the application,
see the section 2. Getting Started)
The main windows will appear as shown on the
right figure
How to do:
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Click “File” -> “New” on the menu bar to create new Abacus Project
You will be asked to define label for the new Project. Click “Ok”.
After defining the Project label, the window will show as on Figure below.
You can define the description of the project and reset the label.
Further Readings
Dewi S, van Noordwijk M and Ekadinata A. 2008. Does carbon emission to the atmosphere pay?
Abatement cost curves for three provinces in Indonesia. Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry
Centre - ICRAF, SEA Regional Office (Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/Publications/files/poster/PO0141-08.PDF)
van Noordwijk, M., Dewi S., Suyanto, Minang P., White D., Robiglio V., Hoang MH., Ekadinata A,
Mulia R., and Harja D. 2011. Abatement cost curves relating past greenhouse gas emissions to the
economic gains they allowed. Project Report. Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF,
SEA Regional Office. 82 p.
White D and Minang P, eds. 2010. Estimating the opportunity costs of REDD+ A training manual.
Washington, USA: World Bank Institute. (Available from
http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-
acquia/wbi/OppCostsREDD+manual.pdf).
4. Spatial and Carbon Stock Input Data
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Spatial and Carbon Stock data is used for calculating the estimated emission matrix. Below are the
brief steps for preparing the data and how it used on the application.
4.1 Land use system characterization
Land use system is a mixture of land cover (e.g., Forest land, Grassland, Wetlands) and land use
(e.g., Cropland, Settlements) classes. The characterization of land use system has to be able to
represent variation of carbon stock and economic profitability. The Information about land use
system characterizations are needed to estimate carbon stocks, emissions, and removals of
greenhouse gases associated with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities.
Six broad categories of land are described here may be considered as top-level categories for
representing land areas within a country. The categories are consistent with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines and the requirements of Articles 3.3
and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, and may be further subdivided as described in Appendix 1.
The top-level land categories for GHG inventory reporting are:
a) Cropland
This category includes arable and tillage land and agro-forestry systems where woody
vegetation falls below the thresholds used for the forest land category, consistent with the
selection of national definitions; part of the agroforestry systems falls into this class.
b) Forest land
This category includes all land with woody vegetation, usually sub-divided into managed and
unmanaged, and further by ecosystem type as specified in the IPCC Guidelines 2003 Chapter 3.
Agroforests are usually included in this category.
c) Grassland
This category includes rangelands and pasture land that is not considered as cropland. The
category also includes all grassland from wild lands to recreational areas as well as agricultural
and silvi-pastoral systems that do not meet the forest land criterion, subdivided into managed
and unmanaged consistent with national definitions.
d) Other land
This category includes bare soil, rock, ice, and all unmanaged land areas that do not fall into
any of the other five categories. It allows the total of identified land areas to match the national
area, where data are available.
e) Settlements
This category includes all developed land, including transportation infrastructure and human
settlements of any size, unless they are already included under other categories.
f) Wetlands
This category includes land that is covered or saturated by water for all or part of the year (e.g.,
peat land) and that does not fall into the forest land, cropland, grassland or settlements
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categories. The category can be subdivided into managed and unmanaged according to
national definitions.
When applying these categories, inventory agencies should classify land under only one category
to prevent double counting. If a country's land classification system does not match categories (i)
to (vi) as described above, it is good practice to combine or disaggregate the existing land classes of
this system of land-use classification in order to use the categories presented here, and to report
on the procedure adopted. It is also good practice to specify national definitions for all categories
used in the inventory and report any threshold or parameter values used in the definitions. Where
national land classification systems are being changed or developed for the first time, it is good
practice to ensure their compatibility with land-use classes (i) to (vi) (IPCC, 2003).
Countries will use their own definitions, which may, of course, refer to internationally accepted
definitions, such as those by IPCC, FAO, Ramsar, etc. For that reason no definitions are given here
beyond broad descriptions. In addition, the detailed definitions and the national approach to
distinguishing between land uses should be described in a transparent manner. Land-cover types
to be classified are determined and defined prior to the classification processes. This stage is
important to guide the sampling and the classification and is a basic for the land cover list data in
Project main screen of REDD Abacus software (Figure 6.1).
Transition Eligibility
Land Use System Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->”Land Use System” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->”Land Use System” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
By default there only one Land Use System defined. You can add more by clicking the “+”
(plus) button on the table menu bar. And click “-“ (minus) button for removing.
Rename the label according to your Land Use System data, and add description if
necessary.
You can do copy and paste method for renaming the label (ex. copy from MS Excel table)
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Click “Transition Eligibility” tab to define the eligibility for each land use transition (Figure
below).
Further Readings
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2003. Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
Land-Use Change and Forestry. Chapter 3 & 4 (Available from: http://www.ipcc-
nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf_contents.html)
Widayati A, Ekadinata A, Johana F, and Said Z 2010. Component C: Consequences of land-use
change for carbon emissions. In: van Noordwijk M. and Tata HL, eds. Human Livelihoods,
ecosystem services and the habitat of the Sumatra orang utan: Rapid assessment in Batang Toru
and Tripa. Bogor, Indonesia: World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) Southeast Asia Regional Program
(Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/Sea/Publications?do=view_pub_detail&pub_no=RP0270-11).
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4.2 Area Size and Spatial Zonation
[Andree to fill]
Area Size and Zonation Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->”Zonation Setting” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->” Zonation Setting” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
By default one Zone was defined. You can add more by clicking the “+” (plus) button on the
table menu bar. And click “-“ (minus) button for removing.
You may rename the zone label according to your preference.
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
4.3 Transition Matrix
Time series of land use/cover mapping as the basis for the classification scheme is produced from
satellite image interpretation. At least two time steps that cover the specified time period are
needed. Analysis of land-cover changes and the trajectories can be presented as a standardised
framework called ‘Analysis of Land-Use/-Cover Trajectories’ (ALUCT) and is based on interpreted
and classified satellite images. This procedures applied in ALUCT will result in several data needed
for the abatement cost curve analysis input in this REDD Abacus software such as land cover
classification, land cover change and the transition matrix.
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The transition matrix resulted shows the quantity of land use transition that will affect the
estimate of national emission levels. That is why estimating land use system transition is essential
for REDD+ opportunity cost analysis. Past changes are calculated by comparing land use systems
from different years. Probable future land use trajectories can be determined by extrapolating past
changes and/or by developing land use models (see the simulation chapter).
The entire procedure of ALUCT is presented in figure xx.
Figure xx Overall workflow in ALUCT
Source: Widayati et al. 2010
Overall workflow will enable us to do some cross-tabulation of the two land cover map that result
in a land use change matrix (Table 1).
Table 1 Example of land-use change matrix
2001–2009 Forest (ha) Agroforest/mosaics (ha) Oil palm (ha) Total 2001
Forest 1000 2000 1000 4000
Agroforest/mosaics 500 500 2000 3000
Oil palm 500 500 2000 3000
Total 2009 2000 3000 5000 10000*
For the analysis using REDD Abacus the data inside land use change matrix then normalized to the
total area* of study in order to get the proportion of each land use changes (Table 2).
Table 2 Example of land use changes transition matrix
2001–2009 Forest (ha) Agroforestry/mosaics (ha) Oil palm (ha) Total 2001
Forest 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
Agroforest/mosaics 0.05 0.05 0.2 0.3
Oil palm 0.05 0.05 0.2 0.3
Total 2009 0.2 0.3 0.5 1
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Every value inside the matrix represents the fraction (%) of land cover change per sub-national
zone (The sum of all cells within this equal to 1) in hectare (ha) unit.
Transition Matrix Data Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->”Transition Matrix” button menu on the
main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->” Transition Matrix” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
Fill in the transition time scale on the top of the table
You can change the unit by selecting the dropdown menu on the top-left table. By default
the unit is in “Fraction Hectare”, the other option is in total “Hectare” unit.
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
The “Fraction Hectare” unit is good for controlling the total fraction (should be 1 in total)
For editing on actual hectare unit, select the unit dropdown menu on the top-left to
“Hectare” then you can start editing.
Note: you can leave the total area field on Zonation Setting empty and it can be filled up
automatically by the total area from this table.
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Further Readings
Widayati A, Ekadinata A, Johana F and Said Z. 2010. Component C: Consequences of land-use change
for carbon emissions. Human Livelihoods, ecosystem services and the habitat of the Sumatra orang
utan: Rapid assessment in Batang Toru and Tripa. Bogor, Indonesia: World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)
Southeast Asia Regional Program. (Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/Sea/Publications?do=view_pub_detail&pub_no=RP0270-11).
World Agroforestry Center 2009.Analysis of Land Use and Cover Trajectory (ALUCT). (Available from
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/projects/tulsea/inrmtools/ALUCT).
4.4 Carbon stock data
The stock-difference method builds on carbon stock inventories from land use changes to estimate
sequestration or emissions. Carbon stocks in each carbon pool are estimated by measuring the
standing stock of biomass at the beginning and at the end of the accounting period.
Within each land-use category, C stock changes and emission/removal estimations can involve the
five carbon pools that are defined in Table 6 (see appendix 4). For some land-use categories and
estimation methods, C stock changes maybe based on the three aggregate carbon pools (i.e.,
biomass, dead organic matter and soils). National circumstances may require modifications of the
pool definitions introduced in Table 6 (IPCC 2006).
Four main steps of C-stock changes estimation (Figure xx) are:
1. Estimation of time-averaged C-stock of each land use systems to determine the emission
factors, i.e., differences between time-averaged C-stock of original land use systems with
subsequences land use systems;
2. Quantification of activity data, i.e., areas of each transitions of land use/cover types;
3. Calculation of emission estimation based on the activity data from step B and emission factors
form step A;
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4. Uncertainty analysis of the estimates.
Source: Ekadinata et al. 2010
Figure xx Four main steps of the C-stock-difference estimation from land use/cover changes
Further Readings
Ekadinata A, Rahmanulloh A, Pambudhi F, Ibrahim I, van Noordwijk M, Sofiyuddin M, Sardjono MA,
Rahayu S, Dewi S, Budidarsono S and Said Z. 2010. Carbon Emissions from Land Use, Land Use
Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in Berau District East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Bogor, Indonesia:
World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF) Southeast Asia Regional Program. (Available from:
http://worldagroforestry.org/sea/Publication?do=view_pub_detail&pub_no=RP0269-11).
Hairiah K, Sitompul SM, van Noordwijk M and Palm CA. 2001. Methods for sampling carbon stocks
above and below ground. ASB Lecture Note 4B. Bogor, Indonesia. International Centre for Research
in Agroforestry, SEA Regional Research Programme. 23p (Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/Publications/searchpub.asp?publishid=1003).
Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. 2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories. Prepared by The National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S.,
Buendia, L., Miwa, K.,Ngara, T. and Tanabe, K. (eds.). Published by IGES Japan (Available from:
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol4.html).
Sitompul SM, Hairiah K, van Noordwijk M and Palm CA. 2001. Carbon stocks of tropical land use
systems as part of the global C balance: effects of forest conversion and options for clean
development activities. ASB Lecture Note 4A. Bogor, Indonesia. International Centre for Research
in Agroforestry, SEA Regional Research Programme. 49p. (Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/Publications/searchpub.asp?publishid=1002).
Time-averaged carbon stock (c-stock)
The concept of time-averaged C-stock along with land use-systems are particularly developed to
suit the common patterns of land use trajectories in the tropical landscapes with a definite and
relatively short rotation. As an example, the traditional shifting cultivation cut across several
15 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
different sequences of land cover types (e.g., secondary forest- cleared land- annual crop-shrub -
agroforest) and different land use and activities (e.g., non-timber forest product gathering, slashing
and burning-planting and harvesting of paddy-rubber tapping, rattan harvesting) within a
particular rotation period (e.g., 40 years, 60 years). Land use systems should be able to capture the
temporal dynamics of C-stock such that the typical or average C-stock across a system can be
calculated, which is known as time-averaged C-stock.
For the purpose of a REDD+ opportunity cost analysis, a value of time-averaged carbon stock is
needed for each land use. This single value is used for carbon accounting purposes and compared
with a single-value economic indicator of net present value (NPV) is necessary for each land use. A
time-averaged carbon stock value integrates the gains and losses over a life-cycle of a land use
(ton/ha or Mg/ha).
Time-averaged carbon stock data is normally obtained from measurements. The basic assumption
for area-based carbon-stock accounting is the carbon stock changes occurred within and between
land-use systems, each characterised as a fraction (ai) of total area (A) (the stratum weighting) and
with time-dependent carbon stock density Cit (the stratum mean). See the manual of RACSA
(Hairiah et. al. 2010) for further information about the method for calculating time-average carbon
stock.
Carbon Stock Data Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->”Carbon Stock” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Spatial & Carbon Stock Data”->” Carbon Stock” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
Fill in the associated carbon stock data to the table. The unit is on Mg/ha or Ton/ha
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
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Further Readings
Hairiah K, Dewi S, Agus F, van Noordwijk M, Rahayu S, Velarde SJ. 2010. Measuring Carbon Stocks
Across Land Use Systems: A Manual. Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), SEA
Regional Office, Brawijaya University and ICALRRD (Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land
Resources Research and Development.
Hairiah K, Subekti R. 2007. Petunjuk praktis Pengukuran karbon tersimpan di berbagai macam
penggunaan lahan. World Agroforestry Centre, ICRAF Southeast Asia. ISBN 979- 3198-35-4. 77p.
(Available from:
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/Publications/files/manual/MN0035-07/MN0035-
07-1.PDF).
5. Economic Input Data
5.1 Net Present Value
Net present value (NPV) or sometimes called present value, is a calculation commonly used to
estimate the profitability of a land use over many years. NPV takes into account the time-value of
money. Since waiting for profits is less desirable than obtaining profits now, the “value” of future
profits is discounted by a specific percentage rate (White et al. 2010).
There are many land use systems involving perennials crops and thus constitute long term
investment. NPV measures profitability by addressing differently future costs and benefit streams.
NPV accumulates discounted revenues less costs of tradable inputs and domestics factors over the
period of calculation.
Tradable inputs consist of fertilizer, fuel and farming tools; while domestic factors are combination
of land, labor and management. Costs are defined by multiplying price with the quantity of each
items applied during the activities in the period of calculation.
The benefits consist of monetary outputs yielded by the land-uses activity along the period of cash
flow or analytic horizon. Each land-use activity has different outputs, single or varies –all outputs
should be monetary valued using appropriate prices.
The calculation of NPV is based on formula follows:
Source: Monke and Pearson, 1995
For brief explanation of NPV calculation see Table 3.
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Table 3 Profitability of a land use within a period of time (Yn)
The NPV is the accumulation of discounted profit within a period of time (Y1……Yn= -100 + -50 +
20…+60). This calculation can also be done by Microsoft excel using following syntax:
“= NPV(discount rate; profit value)”
NPV of a land use activity over the period of calculation is appraised as profitable if NPV greater
than 0. In contrary, if the NPV less than zero is called unprofitable by definition. This does not
necessary mean that there are not positive cash flow. This situation means that it would be more
profitable to do other things with the land, labor and capital than to devote them to this activity.
Profitability can be assessed using both private and social values. If the calculation employs
financial prices so it called private profitability, while social profitability uses economics prices. So
what the different between financial and economics price?
Table 4 The different between financial (private) and economic (social) price
Private Profitability Social Profitability
Reflecting actual markets Reflecting economic efficiency
at national scale
Net return received by the land-use
operator, farmers
Potential net return
Show the competitiveness of
agricultural systems at given current
technology, output values, import
cost, policy transfer
Measure comparative advantage in
agricultural commodity system
Price used: actual market price Price used: world price
(Source: Monke and Pearson, 1995)
The differences private NPV and social NPV occurred because of either policy distortions, eg. taxes,
subsidy, import restrictions etc.
Y1 Y2 Y3 Yn
Total Cost 100 50 50 40
Total Benefit 0 0 70 100
Profit (Benefit-Cost) -100 -50 20 60
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Cost Benefit Unit Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Economic Data”->”Cost Benefit Unit” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Economic Data”->”Cost Benefit Unit” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
By default the Cost Benefit Unit is only for Private “price”
To add the Social price, click on “+” (plus) sign, and select the label “Social” on the add
dialog
You can define other or more “price” unit for the cost-benefit analysis
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Net Present Value (NPV) Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Economic Data”->”NPV” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Economic Data”->”NPV” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
Fill in the NPV on the available table for corresponding land use and zone
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
Further Readings
Monke EA and SR Pearson. 1995. The Policy Analysis Matrix for Agricultural Development. Cornell
University Press. Ithaca and London.
Pagiola S, B Bosquet. 2009. Estimating the Costs of REDD+ at the Country Level. Version 2.2, Forest
Carbon Partnership Facility World Bank. Washington D.C. 22p.
White D, Borner J, Gockowski J. 2010. Profits from land uses. In: White D and Minang P, eds.
Estimating the Opportunity costs of REDD+ A training manual. Washington, USA: World Bank
Institute. (Available from http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-
acquia/wbi/OppCostsREDD+manual.pdf).
3.2.4 Conversion Cost-Benefit
Conversion Cost-Benefit calculates the surplus (benefit) or losses (cost) occurred due to land use change activity. Land use change may contribute to either negative or positive opportunity cost as a result of NPV differences. The land conversion itself may generate additional profits or losses, the profits are depend on whether the initial land cover yield additional benefit when it is converted to the other land cover, or it is even extra cost.
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This Conversion cost-benefit is one of analysis performed in REDD Abacus in order to get the final value of land use change NPV. It represents in per hectare opportunity cost of each land use change. The surplus or benefit generated from land conversion should be added in the next land use activity. So that the final NPV is calculated based on the following formula: NPV final= NPVt2 - NPVt1 + NPVconversion benefit
A common case reflecting the benefit of land use change is in case of forest. Let us see the example
of land the conversion from undisturbed forest into log off forest. The estimated profits (expressed
in NPV) from undisturbed forest is $0/ha (NPVt1, see figure Ap 3 of Appendix 5) and profits from
log of mixed garden is $302/ha (NPVt2, see figure Ap 3 of Appendix 5). In this case there is
$1765/ha (see figure Ap.4 of Appendix 5) of additional benefit from the conversion of undisturbed
forest into commercial type (mixed garden). This additional benefit of conversion can be
approached using the profit from timber concession activity (HPH). Based on prior formula the
NPV final will be $2067/ha ($302/ha - $0/ha + $1765/ha= $2067/ha). In REDD Abacus this NPV
final must be multiplied by area fraction (ha, see figure Ap.5 of Appendix 5) and area transition
(fraction ha or % ha from total area, see figure Ap.6 of Appendix 5) in order to get the total NPV
changes ratio within the period of analysis (see figure Ap7. of Appendix 5).
Conversion Cost-Benefit Data Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Economic Data”->”Conversion Cost-Benefit” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Economic Data”->” Conversion Cost-Benefit” (highlight the last child menu)
How to do:
Fill in the associated conversion cost-benefit data to the table.
The default unit is on $/ha (average dollar per-ha area), however you change it to net value
($) by changing the unit option on top-left of the table to “$”.
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
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Further Readings
Monke, E. A. and S. R. Pearson. 1995. The Policy Analysis Matrix for Agricultural Development.
Cornell University Press. Ithaca and London.
White D, Borner J, Gockowski J. 2010. Profits from Land Uses. In: White D and Minang P, eds.
Estimating the opportunity costs of REDD+ A training manual. Washington, USA: World Bank
Institute. (Available from http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-
acquia/wbi/OppCostsREDD+manual.pdf).
6. Additional Emission
The emission from other sources which can’t be simply calculated from stock differences is
incorporated here. Emission from the peat, for example, may also come from root respiration and
peat decomposition. Additional emission from this kind of source is incorporated on “Belowground
Emission” matrix. While other additional emission from aboveground dynamic which may can’t be
simply calculated from stock differences is added to “Modified Emission” matrix.
6.1 Belowground Emission
Belowground Emissions, provides a way to examine the effects of including different carbon pools
within an opportunity cost analysis. Belowground emission is calculated based on the root
emission and soil carbon.
As measurement of root biomass is not simple (although there is a method that uses the root
diameter at stem base and allometric equations), normally there are several default assumptions
for the shoot:root ratio based on available literature (Cairns et al. 1997; Mokany et al. 2006).
Soil carbon consists of organic carbon, inorganic carbon, and charcoal. Inorganic in the forms of
carbonate usually exists in calcareous soils, but insignificant in neutral and acid soils. The main
form of the soil carbon is the soil organic carbon. Soil organic matter does not include forest litter.
Soil organic carbon differs greatly between peat soil and mineral soil. The main change in soil
carbon contents due to land use change is rarely larger than 20 Mg carbon ha-1 (IPCC, 1997;
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Murty, et al. 2002), unless in wetland conditions. In case of that belowground emissions, which
typically occur at a slower rate, can be substantial, especially in peatlands.
Belowground Emission Data Input
How to go:
Click “Input”->”Additional Emission”->”Belowground Emission” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Input”-
>”Additional Emission”->”Belowground Emission” (highlight the last child menu). See
Figure
How to do:
Fill in the associated belowground emission data to the table.
The default unit is on Mg CO2-eq/ha.year (average emission), however you change it to net
emission per year by changing the unit option on top-left of the table to “Mg CO2-eq/year”.
You can do copy and paste method for modifying the data on the table (ex. copy from MS
Excel table)
Further Readings
Cairns M A, Brown S, Helmer E H and Bumgardner G A,1997. Root biomass allocation in the world’s
upland forests. Oecologia, 111: 1-11. available at:
http://www.winrock.org/ecosystems/files/rootbiomassallocationintheworldsuplandforests1997.
23 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
Mokany K, Raison J R, and Prokushkin AS, 2006. Critical analysis of root-shoot ratios in terrestrial
biomes. Glob. Change Biol. 12: 84-96.
Page, S.E., F. Siegert, J.O. Rieley, H.V. Boehm, A. Jayak, and S. Limin, 2002. The amount of carbon
released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997. NATURE, VOL 420, 2002.
Parish, F., A. Sirin, D. Charman, H. Joosten, T. Minayeva, M. Silvius, and L. Stringer (Eds.). 2007.
Assessment on Peatlands, Biodiversity and Climate Change: Main Report. Global Environment
Centre, Kuala Lumpur and Wetlands International, Wageningen.
Wahyunto, Ritung S, Subagjo H. 2003. Peta Luas Sebaran Lahan Gambut dan Kandungan Karbon di
Pulau Sumatera 1990–2002. Bogor, Indonesia: Wetlands International, Indonesia Program and
Rapid assessment in Tripa and Batang Toru - 117 - Wildlife Habitat Canada (Available from:
http://www.wetlands.or.id/PDF/buku/Atlas%20Sebaran%20Gambut%20Sumatera.pdf).
6.2 Modified Emission
The emission may not come from stock differences only. The transition processes itself may
contribute a significant amount of emission that could be considered on REDD mechanism (?)
Other emission sources such establishment of transportation facility, energy consumption by the
factory or else, may should be accommodated here (?).
7. Output
7.1 Output Summary
7.1.1 Summary
The output summary is including average and total emission per-year (in Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year and
Mg CO2-eq/Year), average and total sequestration per-year (in Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year and Mg CO2-
eq/Year), average and total NPV (in $/Ha.Year and $/Ha), both with and without ineligible
conversion.
Output Summary
How to go:
Click “Output”->”Summary” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”-
>”Summary” (highlight the last child menu). See Figure
And click “Summary” tab
How to do:
You can do copy method for copying the data to other application (ex. copy to MS Excel
24 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
table)
7.1.2 Avoidable Emission
Avoidable emission shows how much emission reduction can be achieved at a specific carbon price
(cost threshold, in $/Mg CO2-eq) that is considered from the opportunity cost analysis.
Avoidable Emission
How to go:
Click “Output”->”Summary” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”-
>”Summary” (highlight the last child menu).
And click “Avoidable Emission” tab
How to do:
By default the Cost Threshold is 5 $/ Mg CO2-eq, you can changes this by clicking the
“Update” button, and changes the value on the input dialog.
The total avoidable emission is on the top of the table (may changes when the Cost
Threshold were modified)
You can changes the emission unit in either average (Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year) or total per-year
(Mg CO2-eq/Year) by changing the unit option on the right side of avoidable emission
value.
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The table is the list of the all conversion that is avoidable (it’s opportunity cost was under
the cost threshold defined)
To see the eligible conversion only, check the “Eligible Only” checkbox
You can do copy method for copying the data into other application, such as MS Excel table.
7.2 Abatement Cost Curve
An abatement cost curve compares the quantity of potential emission reductions with their costs.
The vertical axis represents the opportunity cost of the emissions (in monetary units per tCO2e),
and the horizontal axis depicts the corresponding quantity of reduction (often measured in million
tCO2e per year).
Figure 3.6 illustrates the above cases. The abatement level A* (on the horizontal axis) is the
quantity at which the carbon price P* (on the vertical axis) is equal to REDD+ costs. At this level of
abatement, the country receives a REDD+ payment the area of the rectangle 0P*mn. To reach this
level of abatement, it faces costs equal to the area under the abatement curve up to A*. The
difference between these costs and the REDD+ payment are a net benefit to the country (known as
a ‘rent’ or a ‘producer surplus’). Should a country reduce fewer emissions by less than this level
(for example, abatement level A1), it would give up some of this potential rent (the area of the
triangle tsm). Conversely, if the country chooses an abatement level higher than A* (for example,
A2), it will face additional costs that are not compensated by the additional REDD+ income (area
nmwv) (white et. al. 2010).
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Figure 3.6 REDD+ rents and costs Source: White et al. 2010 .
This provides the answer of how much emission reduction can be achieved at a specific carbon
price that is considered from the opportunity analysis above. The answer to this question enables a
country to establish a reference emission level (REL) – a basis from which a country commits to
reduce emissions. The REL is an important component of REDD+ preparation because:
If a country reduces deforestation too little, it will miss opportunities to increase its net REDD+ revenues. or
It is possible for a country to reduce deforestation ‘too much’ – that is, to reduce deforestation at a cost that is higher than the compensation it receives through REDD+.
It is important to note, however, that agreements on payment mechanisms and associated rules have not yet been reached (Angelsen 2009). Thus, such REDD+ rents may not be structured exactly as explained above.
Abatement Cost Curve
How to go:
Click “Output”->”Abatement Cost Curve” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”-
>”Abatement Cost Curve” (highlight the last child menu).
How to do:
The chart shows an avoidable emission (vertical red-dashed line by default) at a specific
carbon price (cost threshold in horizontal red-dashed line by default)
Each bar represent one land use transition with their Emission (or Sequestration) in
horizontal dimension, and the Opportunity Cost in vertical dimension
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The bars were sorted by Opportunity Cost value in ascending order
The positive horizontal length of the sorted bars is the total emission from all emitted
transition (and sequestration on negative horizontal axis)
The chart is fully customize, see Appendix xxx on how to customize the chart
Figure
Further Readings
Angelsen, A. 2008. How Do We Set the Reference Levels for REDD Payments? In A. Angelsen, ed.,
Moving Ahead with REDD: Issues, Options and Implications. Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International
Forestry Research (CIFOR).
Angelsen, A. 2009. What will REDD cost? Presentation Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN). 18 June.
www.slideshare.net/amiladesaram/angelsen-rfn-redd-costs
White D, Minang P, van Noordwijk M, Hyman G. 2010. RED(D++) policy context. In: White D and Minang
P, eds. Estimating the Opportunity costs of REDD+ A training manual. Washington, USA: World Bank
Institute. (Available from http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-
acquia/wbi/OppCostsREDD+manual.pdf).
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7.3 Emission Matrix
Emission Matrix show the emission (or sequestration if the value is negative) of each land use
transition. The value is calculated from carbon stock changes of the transition, plus belowground
emission (if enabled) and plus modified emission (if enabled).
Emission Matrix
How to go:
Click “Output”->”Emission Matrix” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”->”
Emission Matrix” (highlight the last child menu). See Figure
How to do:
The frame consist of four tabs:
1. Zone Partition: emission for each transition on every zones
2. Net Emission: net emission (total emission + total sequestration) for each land use
transition, combined for all zones
3. Total Emission: emission (positive value) for each land use transition, combined for all
zones
4. Total Sequestration: sequestration (negative value) for each land use transition,
combined for all zones
The default emission unit is Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year, you can change it to total emission unit
per-year by changing the unit option on the top-left table to Mg CO2-eq/Year
You can do copy method for copying the data into other application, such as MS Excel table.
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7.4 Cost-Benefit Total
The Cost-Benefit Total Matrix show the total cost-benefit of each land use transition. The value is
calculated from NPV changes of the transition, plus conversion cost-benefit.
Cost-Benefit Total Matrix
How to go:
Click “Output”->” Cost-Benefit Total” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”->”
Cost-Benefit Total” (highlight the last child menu). See Figure
How to do:
The frame consist of four tabs:
1. Zone Partition: cost-benefit value for each transition on every zones
2. Net Cost-Benefit: net cost-benefit (sum of cost-benefit value from all zones) for each
land use transition
3. Benefit: total positive cost-benefit value from all zones for each land use transition
4. Cost: total negative cost-benefit value from all zones for each land use transition
The default cost-benefit unit is $/Ha, you can change it to total cost benefit unit ($) by
changing the unit option on the top-left table to “$”.
You can do copy method for copying the data into other application, such as MS Excel table.
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7.5 Opportunity Cost
Opportunity Cost Matrix is the opportunity cost for a unit of emission for each land use
transition. The unit is $/Mg CO2-eq.
Opportunity Cost Matrix
How to go:
Click “Output”->”Opportunity Cost” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on “Output”->”
Opportunity Cost” (highlight the last child menu).
How to do:
The frame consist of four tabs:
1. Zone Partition: cost-benefit value for each transition on every zones
2. Net OpCost: net opportunity cost (sum of opportunity cost value from all zones) for
each land use transition
3. Positive OpCost: total positive opportunity cost value from all zones for each land use
transition
4. Negative OpCost: total negative opportunity cost value from all zones for each land use
transition
You can do copy method for copying the data into other application, such as MS Excel table.
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8. Simulation
8.1 Simulation Scenario with ABACUS
Originally ABACUS aims to analyze the opportunity costs of changing land use systems per unit emitted
carbon from the conversions in the past. It is a retrospective analysis that reflects the actual changes
and what would have been the forgone opportunities, in term of financial benefit, if those conversions
were avoided. The analysis provides a simple, first approximation of quantitative indication of feasible
avoidable emissions were there incentive mechanisms in the past and that given that drivers of land
use changes do not change in the future, such that the land use changes in the future are stationary in
rates and trends, the level of avoidable emissions in the future resemble those in the past. While this
retrospective analysis is useful in itself in providing the entry point to the discussion on the feasibility of
compensation-based mechanism of climate change mitigation actions, the prospective analysis will be
providing us with valuable ex-ante analysis for planning purposes. In particular the analysis can serve as
the main tool to assess the trade-offs between AFOLU emissions and land-based development agenda
to be as basis of negotiation platform among multiple stakeholders to achieve inclusive, integrative and
informed low emission development strategy. ABACUS facilitates the prospective analysis in two ways:
- Assuming the process of land use changes are stationary in rates and trends, due to the fixed
amount of land and decreasing extent of forests, in absolute terms the conversion and
therefore the emissions will slow down. The prospective analysis should therefore take this into
account in projecting the emissions in the future based on the changes on the previous time
steps and also the avoidable emissions given a particular threshold level of compensation per
unit CO2-e emission
- Diverging factors that affect land use changes, e.g., some policy interventions, new economic
drivers, changes in demographic structures, environmental hazards, may lead to non-stationary
process of land use changes. In this case the rate and trends of land use transitions may be
altered either uniformly across the landscapes or variably among zones within the landscapes.
Some of these factors can be anticipated and combined with plausible policy interventions,
some scenarios can be developed and formulated into a land use plan policy which further
translated into anticipated extent and location of some particular land use transitions.
Simulating these scenario based on the existing landscape enables us to run the prospective
analysis on future emissions and avoidable emissions
Some examples of scenarios: halting deforestation within Conservation Area, establishing oil palm only
from shrubs under Non-Forest Land, avoiding conversion of rubber agroforest to oil palm, stopping
conversions on peatland.
Once the scenario of Reference Emission Level (REL) is set and simulated, ABACUS can help comparing
the projected emissions from different scenarios with REL scenario. Therefore how much emission
reduction can be expected in association to particular loss or gain in profits at the landscape level under
each scenario can be quantified. The analysis will help the government in facilitating the multi
stakeholder process of developing the land use planning for low emission development strategy
(LUWES) (reference).
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Simulation
How to go:
Click “Simulation”->”Scenario”->”Generate Model” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on
“Simulation”->”Scenario”->”Generate Model” (highlight the last child menu). See Figure
How to do:
Figure xx shows the frame for starting the simulation
Click on “Generate Simulation Button” for generating the scenario matrix
Define the number of iteration periods for the simulation
The frame will shows the options for modifying the scenario
See the next box for how to modifying the scenario
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TIPS: you can right click on the one of the rows (period), and select “Check Out Project” to
get new independent Abacus Project based on the selected period. After, you can do
modification on the project and also start new simulation based on that project
independently
8.2 Technical notes for Simulating Scenario under ABACUS
The process of land use changes to be simulated follows Markov Chain, in which transition to land use
in the next time step only depends on the current land use and the probability of change. The
probability of each pair of land use class is compiled as Transition Probability Matrix (TPM), which in the
case of stationary land use change process derived solely from the past Land Use Transition Matrix
(LUTM).
1999 2009
Land use maps of two time steps
Land Use Transition Matrix
(in hectares)
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The Transition Probability Matrix is calculated by normalize each row of Land Use Transition Matrix to
sum up to 1. The existing Land Use (L) in 1999 changed to Land Use in 2009 through the Transition
Probability Matrix (P), or mathematically it can be written as follows:
L(t+1) = L(t) x P(t)
where:
- L(t) is a row vector or fraction land uses at time t
- P(t) is the Transition Probability Matrix at time t
If the process of land use changes in the following time steps is stationary, the Transition Probability
Matrix is constant over time, i.e., P(t+i) = P(t) = P. Otherwise, we can apply some particular scenarios in
two ways:
- By altering the probability or rate of conversion from one particular land use type to another
through the modification of the Transition Probability Matrix at a particular time step
- By determining the converted areas (either in hectares or in fraction) in the future through the
modification of the Land Use Transition Matrix at a particular time step
As a default ABACUS always offer the constant TPM and L(t+1) based on the constant TPM; if we would
like to simulate stationary process scenario, then no modification is necessary. However, if we want to
simulate particular scenarios we need to modify either the TPM or the LUTM in hectares of LUTM in
fraction. As an illustration, a future scenario of enforcement of law through policy and action to halt
deforestation of Undisturbed forest for this particular landscape can be done by one of the following:
- Changing the first row of the TPM for t+1 or P(t+1) to
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- Changing the first row of the LUTM for t+1 or L(t+1) to have all the total area of Undisturbed
forest in the first cell and all the rest in the first row zero
- Changing the first row of the normalized LUTM for t+1 or L(t+1) to 1 in the first cell and 0 for
the rest of the cells in the first row
Scenario of policy that allows establishment of oil palm only from shrubs can be captured by setting all
the cells in 5th column to 0 except for that in the 6th row, however those other rows which are affected
by the changes such that the sum is not equal to 1 anymore has to be adjusted. For the purpose of
REDD+, then for all forest classes and other land use types that has higher C-stock than Oil palm should
perhaps stay as they are, and therefore shift and add the number in each cell in the 5th column (except
for the 6th row) to the number in each associated the diagonal cell, e.g., for Logged-over forest (2nd
row), change the 5th column cell to 0 and add 0.1111 to the 2nd column, which becomes 0.4167+0.1111
= 0.5278.
Please note that most likely the scenarios are varied across zones. In the case of legal zoning of forest
as is in the Indonesian case, the conservation areas should have different scenarios from production
forest and from other, for instance. Zonation based on soil types, i.e., mineral soil and peatland could
be very instrumental in some areas in Indonesia where peatland is extensive and under threat while we
know that emissions caused by land use changes on peatland could be much higher than those in
mineral soils.
Transition Probability Matrix
How to go:
Click “Simulation”->”Scenario”->”Transition Probability Matrix” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on
“Simulation”->”Scenario”-> ”Transition Probability Matrix” (highlight the last child menu).
See Figure
If the frame is empty, see how to generate the model section (above)
How to do:
You can start to modify the scenario by editing the matrix table
The sum of each row values should be equal to 1 (slide the table to the right to see the total
of each row values)
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Select the iteration period to be modified
After the editing the “Update Model” button (above the table) will become enabled
You should click the “Update Model” button after finishing the modification on that
iteration period
NOTE: if you plan to modify the scenario on more than one period, the modification should
be start from the earlier iteration period (otherwise, the modified scenario on the later
period will overwrote by the previous one)
TIPS: you can highlight the row header of a land use system and right click, then click “Set
no conversion” to set the No Conversion scenario from the highlighted land use system
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Land Use Transition Scenario
How to go:
Click “Simulation”->”Scenario”->”Land Use Transition Scenario” button menu on the main
frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on
“Simulation”->”Scenario”-> ” Land Use Transition Scenario” (highlight the last child menu).
See Figure
If the frame is empty, see how to generate the model section (above)
How to do:
This scenario matrix is has the same role as the Transition Probability Matrix above,
except this using the actual land area size
The default unit is “Fraction Hectare”, thus the sum of all values in one zone matrix should
be equal to 1.
You can use the actual area in “Hectare” unit (change the unit option in top-left of the table)
for the scenario. But you might want to change it back to “Fraction Hectare” to check the
consistency
Select the iteration period to be modified
After the editing the “Update Model” button (above the table) will become enabled
You should click the “Update Model” button after finishing the modification on that
39 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
iteration period
NOTE: if you plan to modify the scenario on more than one period, the modification should
be start from the earlier iteration period (otherwise, the modified scenario on the later
period will overwrote by the previous one)
TIPS: you can highlight the row header of a land use system and right click, then click “Set
no conversion” to set the No Conversion scenario from the highlighted land use system
8.3 Simulation Output
The output of the simulation is provided for each of the time step and can be exported easily to
produce a family of curves of cumulative emissions during the period of simulation. These curves will
enable us to readily compare the expected emission reductions among different scenarios applied. On
the other hand the output also offers the total profit generated from changing land uses in the overall
landscape. Therefore if the Reference Emission Level scenario or Business As Usual Scenario or
Historical Projection has been set, then comparisons over emissions, emission reductions and
opportunity costs across multiple scenarios can be made.
Within our applications so far, only financial cost-benefit from land use systems is considered, while it
should be noted that total REDD+ costs are much larger than that, some is easier to quantify than
others. The limitation to financial cost benefit only within the existing applications is not inherent to the
software but more to the availability of data and analysis. Any economic opportunity cost and
implementation costs or any other quantifiable costs could be accommodated by ABACUS.
Simulation Output Summary
How to go:
Click “Simulation”->”Simulation Output”->”Summary” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on
“Simulation”-> ”Simulation Output”->”Summary” (highlight the last child menu). See Figure
If the frame is empty, see how to generate the model section (above)
How to do:
The output summary has three tabs:
1. Total: shows the emission summary (as in the project output summary) per-period of
simulation (figure xx)
2. Cumulative: shows the emission summary in cumulative over the periods of simulation
3. Avoidable Emission: shows the avoidable emission over the period with single cost
threshold (carbon price)
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On “Avoidable Emission” tab, you can changes the threshold by changing the value on the
available field (top of the table) and click “Update” button after to refreshing the avoidable
emission table
Other Simulation Output Matrix
How to go:
Click “Simulation”->”Simulation Output” button menu on the main frame
Or
Expands the tree menu on the tree menu frame (on the left side by default) on
“Simulation”-> ”Simulation Output”
How to do:
The output matrix has the same format as on the project output, except there were
41 | REDD Abacus Users Manual
separated into simulation periods
The output matrix including:
o Land Use Transition: shows the changes on land use transition over the simulation
periods (figure xx)
o Emission: shows the changes on emitted emission per-land use transition, over the
simulation periods
o Cost-Benefit Total: shows the changes on total cost-benefit per-land use transition,
over the simulation periods
o Opportunity Cost: shows the changes on opportunity cost per-land use transition, over
the simulation periods
APPENDICES
1. Example of Land Cover Categories
Table 1 below, present the example of land-cover catagories and respective definition used in one
of World Agroforestry Study in Tripa and Batang Toru study sites in Sumatra, Indonesia.
Table xx. Land-cover types and definitions
No. Land-use/-cover types
Description
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1 Undisturbed forest Undisturbed forest is natural forest cover with dense
canopy, highly diverse species and basal areas. It has no
logging roads, indicating that it has never been logged, at
least not on a large scale, and is usually located in areas
with rough topography. Canopy cover of undisturbed forest
is usually >80%. In satellite images it is indicated by high
value of vegetation index and infrared spectrum channels
and lower value in visible spectrum channels.
2 Undisturbed swamp
forest
Similar to #1, but located in swamp environment and
normally with lower vegetation and canopy density
compared to lowland and mountainous forest.
3 Disturbed/degraded
forest
Natural forest area having been disturbed by logging or
other timber extraction or fire but still has relatively dense
tree cover and dense canopy. Canopy cover is around 20–
60%. Large trees with diameter >30 cm can be found.
4 Disturbed swamp
forest
Similar to #3, located in swamp environment.
5 Rubber agroforest Rubber agroforest is characterised by the presence of
rubber trees mixed with other tree species, which form a
stand structure similar to secondary forest. Rubber trees
typically account for less than 70% of the population of
trees above 10 cm dbh (diameter at breast height). When
the presence of non-rubber trees is dominant and the plot
is old enough, the area will be very hard to differentiate
from natural forest.
6 Mixed garden Mixed garden is a tree-based system with more than 30%
of the area consisting of various species of trees. Mixed
gardens are usually located relatively close to settlements
or roads.
7 Agroforest Agroforest is defined as a tree-based system mixed with
crops and other vegetation with a range of density and
diversity lower than but similar to mixed gardens; usually
also includes natural understorey vegetation. The location
is not limited by distance to any other land use.
8 Estate/plantation Monoculture plantation of tree crops and/or timber. Tree
canopy cover is around 30–50%.
9 Oil palm Monoculture plantation of oil palm planted by private
companies and local people.
10 Coffee agroforest Mixed cultivation system of coffee and shade trees, mostly
managed by local people; normally located close to
settlements.
11 Cleared land Area where trees have been cleared, which includes ex-
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logging areas or slashed-and-burned areas prepared for
agriculture; vegetation cover is usually herbaceous
vegetation and/or grass.
12 Cropland Cropland is intensively cultivated land and is mostly
planted with annual crops such as staple food, vegetables,
fruit.
13 Shrubs, grass Area dominated by non-woody vegetation, which is usually
an ex-forest clearing area that undergoes natural secondary
regrowth. For old shrubs, there is a low cover of trees,
around 5% cover; but no trees with diameter >20 cm.
14 Settlement Settlement refers to built area (city or village), which
includes road, main road and/or logging road; for rural
settlement this includes home gardens immediately located
near the houses.
15 Water body Water body refers to an area covered with water, for
example, stream, lake, pond.
16 No data No data refers to unclassified area, clouds, and shadow
area.
The peat-land map was utilised to distinguish between swamp forest and lowland forest, as the
aboveground carbon-stock differs between these vegetation types.
2. What is carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq)?
The major greenhouse gas associated with land use change is carbon dioxide (CO2). Carbon is approximately 46% of the biomass (per kilogram of dry weight) stored in trees and 57% of soil organic matter. When one unit of tree carbon is burned or otherwise decomposes, the carbon combines with two units of oxygen to produce one unit of CO2. Given the atomic weights of carbon (12) and oxygen (16), one unit of C is equal to 3.67 units of CO2 ((12+(2*16))/12)=44/12=3.67). Deforestation and degradation affect the production other greenhouse gases (GHGs) including nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). They are more dangerous greenhouse gases. N20 and CH4 have 231 and 23 times higher global warming potential than CO2. To standardize the effect of different emissions, international convention measures greenhouse gas loading in terms of CO2 equivalents, represented by CO2-eq.
Source: IPCC, 2006.
3. Customizing the Abacus Chart
The chart shows the opportunity analysis in graphical curve. See section 7.2 for the chart interpretations. By default the chart shown as on figure below.
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3.1 Setting the displayed component
You can customize the displayed value element by selecting the toolbar shown below.
The value elements that can be selected are:
Emission (positive X axis) Sequestration (negative X axis) Positive NPV (positive Y axis) Negative NPV (negative Y axis)
An example of value element selection shown below:
The legend box display can be toggle by selecting this toolbar icon:
The threshold line display can be toggle by selecting this toolbar icon:
Threshold value (and its line) can be modified by right clicking
the horizontal line and click “Set Threshold” on popup menu. Or
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you can directly dragging the horizontal line (OpCost threshold) up and down.
Another display setting can be accessed through this toolbar icon: (Display Setting). The display
setting dialog shows the options for:
Whether you only want to display the eligible elements only
(eligible transition and zones)
Cost Benefit Unit options to display on the chart
The X axis unit can be selected either average emission unit (Mg
CO2-eq/Ha.Year) or total emission unit per-year (Mg CO2-
eq/Year). You can also customize the unit range.
The Y axis unit can be selected either on logarithmic scale (by
default) or normal scale. You can also customize the unit range.
3.2 Adding the bar label The curve bar of the chart represents one land use transition. The dimension is Emission (width) and
Opportunity Cost (height). The interesting transition can be recognized easily on the chart, either the
highest emitter or the biggest dimension in conjunction with the Opportunity Cost. To emphasize the
interesting bar, a label can be added to the chart for each of the bar.
To add label for the bar, highlight the selected bar and right click. Click the popup menu “Add Label” as
shown on the figure below.
The added label can be dragged, so you can compose the position of the label according to your
preference. The label can be removed again by right clicking the label and click “Remove Label” popup
menu. An example of chart with labels is shown below.
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3.3 Customizing the chart format
The chart color, line style and font size can be customized by clicking the toolbar icon:
The format setting dialog shows the option for customized the format of:
X Axis: font and line format for the axis title and
numbering unit
Y Axis: font and line format for the axis title and
numbering unit
Bar Color: the legend color for the curve bars
Label: font and label shape color format
Legend: font style format
Threshold: font and line format for horizontal
and vertical line
Background: the background color only
All of the setting panels were similar for most of the same type setting. Here is described the common
setting that was available:
Font
You can define the font type, size and color. If necessary the font effect can also be applied. On each
there were font preview showing the changes you made automatically.
Line
Line format that can be modified are:
Line Size: the size of line in pixel
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Line Format: the format definition using a pattern of array value, separated by semicolon (if it’s
empty than standard line format is used). The rule is as follows:
- one value i.e. “10”, means a dashed line with 10 pixel length for both line and space
segment
- two value i.e. “10;5”, means a dashed line with 10 pixel length of line segment and 5
pixel length of space segment
- more than two value i.e. “10;5;2;5”, means a dashed line with two order of line-space
segment with length each 10 and 5 pixel, followed by 2 and 5 pixel dash segment
Line Color: the color of the line that can be selected
using the color selector dialog
Shape
The shape format is combination of the line format setting
(as described above) as the format for border line and
additional of two field setting:
Fill Color: the color of the shape fill that can be
selected using the color selector dialog
Corner: the shape corner definition in pixel radius of rounded corner (set 0 for sharp corner).
The examples of corner setting shown below:
Bar Color
For the Bar Color setting it’s defined as a legend pattern
of shape color setting. The color will represent a
zonation legend color on the chart. You can define as
much as possible the color legend, click “+” (plus) sign
to add and “-“ (minus) sign to remove the color. The
default color pattern is available as selectable dropdown
menu under the legend color.
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3.4 Setting the chart size and transferring the snapshot The chart can be transferred to other application by either using the saved image or clipboard copy
method. Click the toolbar icon (Save Image) for saving the image into commons image file format
such JPG, PNG, GIF or BMP. To get the best image quality, it’s suggested to save it in BMP file format
(bigger file size).
The chart can be copied into clipboard by clicking the toolbar icon (Copy Image), and you can paste
it into other application such MS Words, MS PowerPoint or an image editor (i.e. Photoshop, Gimp etc)
Notes: the chart snapshot that was saved or copied is the same size (in pixel) as showed on the
monitor.
To get bigger resolution of the snapshot, you can do the zooming method
by clicking toolbar icon (Zoom). The zoom dialog will shows the option
for zooming the chart size. The chart can be resized by percentage ratio or
using the pixel size definition. Click ok after the modification.
The chart can be zoomed in and out directly clicking the toolbar icon (Zoom In) and (Zoom Out).
The toolbar icon for the chart modification and snapshot transferring is shown below
GLOSSARY
Above ground biomass.
Biomass above the soil surface: trees and other vegetation.
Accounting stance.
The viewpoint from which costs and benefits are calculated. Typical accounting stances for
analyzing REDD+ initiatives are that of: an entire country, individual groups within a country, the
government, and global community.
AFOLU
Acronym for Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses. Recommended by IPCC Guidelines (2006)
as a new term covering LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) and agriculture.
Area Fraction
Total of land use change area (ha) divided by a total size of a landscape
Below ground biomass.
Biomass below the soil surface: plant roots and other soil biota.
Allometric equation.
Scaling rule or equation that relates tree biomass (or similar properties) to stem diameter and/or
tree height.
Biomass.
The total mass of living organisms including plants and animals for a given area usually expressed
as dry weight in g m-2 or kg ha-1. Organic matter consisting of or recently derived from living
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organisms (especially regarded as fuel) excluding peat. Includes products, by-products and waste
derived from such material. For most ecological research and for the purposes of this manual,
"biomass" is a vegetation attribute that refers to the weight of plant material within a given area.
Another commonly used term for biomass is "production" which refers to how much vegetation is
produced in an area.
Carbon dioxide equivalent.
A measure used to compare different greenhouse gases based on their contribution to radiative
forcing. The UNFCCC (2005) uses global warming potentials (GWPs) as factors to calculate carbon
dioxide equivalent.
Carbon pool.
A reservoir or subsystem which has the capacity to accumulate or release carbon. Examples of
carbon pools are forest biomass, wood products, soils and the atmosphere. The units are mass (kg
ha-1 or Mg ha-1).
Carbon stocks.
Total carbon stored (absolute quantity) in terrestrial ecosystems at a specific time, as living or
dead plant biomass (above and below-ground) and in the soil, along with usually negligible
quantities as animal biomass. The units are Mg ha-1.
Carbon stock change
The carbon stock in a pool can change due to the difference between additions of carbon and losses
of carbon. When the losses are larger than the additions, the carbon stock becomes smaller, and
thus the pool acts as a source to the atmosphere; when the losses are smaller than the additions,
the pools acts as a sink to the atmosphere.
Carbon sequestration.
The removal of carbon from the atmosphere and long-term storage in sinks, such as ocean or terrestrial ecosystems, through physical or biological processes, such as photosynthesis. Costs
Cost refer to the value in alternative uses of the factors of production used by a firm (labour
costs, material costs, capital costs). Costs may be fixed or variable.
Country-specific data.
Data for either activities or emissions that are based on research carried out on sites either in that
country or otherwise representative of that country.
Cropland
This category includes arable and tillage land, and agro-forestry systems where vegetation falls
below the threshold used for the forest land category, consistent with the selection of national
definitions
Deforestation
Most definitions describe deforestation as the long-term or permanent conversion of land from
forest to non-forest. In an annex to a decision made by the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP),
which serves as a meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, deforestation is defined as ‘the
direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land’. The FAO defines
deforestation as ‘the conversion of forest to another land use or the long-term reduction of the tree
canopy cover below the minimum 10% threshold’. Definitions also stipulate minimum tree heights
(FAO: 5 m in situ) and minimum areas (FAO: 0.5 ha), and that agriculture must not be the dominant
use. But the definitions of minimum canopy cover, height and area vary from country to country.
Degradation
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Changes within the forest which negatively affect the structure or function of the forest stand or
site, and thereby lower the capacity of the forest to supply products and/or services. In the context
of a REDD mechanism, forest degradation results in the net loss of carbon from the ecosystem. One
way to measure degradation is to measure the decrease
in the carbon stock per area unit (e.g. hectare).
Discount rate.
A rate reflecting a time-preference at which the value future profits are reduced in a multi-period
model.
Emissions.
The release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area
and period of time (UNFCCC Article 1.4).
Forest5
Forest is a minimum area of land of 0.05 – 1.0 hectares with tree crown cover (or equivalent
stocking level) of more than 10 – 30 per cent with trees with the potential to reach a minimum
height of 2 – 5 metres at maturity in situ. A forest may consist either of closed forest formations
where trees of various storeys and undergrowth cover a high portion of the ground or open forest.
Young natural stands and all plantations which have yet to reach a crown density of 10 – 30 per
cent or tree height of 2 – 5 metres are included under forest, as are areas normally forming part of
the forest area which are temporarily unstocked as a result of human intervention such as
harvesting or natural causes but which are expected to revert to forest.
5 In the context of the Kyoto Protocol, as stipulated by the Marrakesh Accords, cf. paragraph 1 of the Annex to draft decision -/CMP.1 (Land use, land-use change and forestry) contained in document FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1, p.58.
Forest land
This category includes all land with woody vegetation consistent with thresholds used to define
forest land in the national GHG inventory, sub-divided at the national level into managed and
unmanaged and also by ecosystem type as specified in the IPCC Guidelines.6 It also includes
systems with vegetation that currently falls below, but is expected to exceed, the threshold of the
forest land category.
Good Practice.
A set of procedures intended to ensure that greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories are accurate in the
sense that they are systematically neither over- nor underestimates so far as can be judged, and
that uncertainties are quantified and reduced so far as possible. Good Practice covers choice of
estimation methods appropriate to national circumstances, quality assurance and quality control
at the national level, quantification of uncertainties and data archiving and reporting to promote
transparency.
Grassland
This category includes rangelands and pasture land that is not considered as cropland. It also
includes systems with vegetation that fall below the threshold used in the forest land category and
is not expected to exceed, without human intervention, the thresholds used in the forest land
category. This category also includes all grassland from wild lands to recreational areas as well as
agricultural and silvo-pastural systems, subdivided into managed and unmanaged, consistent with
national definitions.
Greenhouse Gases.
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Are radiatively active trace gases in the atmosphere that trap infrared radiation. The earth absorbs
the sun’s short wave, ultraviolet radiation and emits long-wave, infrared radiation to outer space.
The absorption of radiation causes warming. How much infrared energy escapes to outer space is
strongly affected by the composition of the earth’s athmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (N2O), and chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) absorb some of this outgoing
infrared radiation.
Ground truth.
A remote sensing term referring to the actual condition of the Earth surface as determined by field
visits.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Established in 1988 as a special body by the UN Environmental programme and the World
Meteorological Organization to provide assessments to policymakers of the results of ongoing
climate change research. The IPCC is responsible for providing the scientific and technological
foundation for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC), primarily
through the publication of periodic assessment reports.
Kyoto Protocol
An agreement made in 1997 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). Annex I countries that ratify this Protocol (categorized as Annex I countries) commit to
reducing their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other GHGs. The Kyoto Protocol now covers
more than 170 countries globally, but only 60% in terms of global GHG emissions. As of December
2007, the US and Kazakhstan are the only signatory nations not to have ratified the Protocol. The
first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
ends in 2012, and international talks began in May 2007 on the next commitment period.
Land cover.
The classification of the biophysical surface of the Earth, comprising vegetation, soils, rocks, water
bodies and areas built by humans.
Land use (LU).
The classification of human activities, occupation and settlement of the land surface; e.g., annual
crops, tree crops, plantations, urban, conservation area, etc.
Land use classification system.
A framework for organizing land uses according to characteristics that differentiate them and
make them unique (forests, agriculture, pastures, urban, etc)
Land use system (LUS).
Dynamic characteristics and interactions in activities across space and time on the Earth surface.
The word system refers to sequential cyclical changes that are part of a land use, such as the
crop/fallow rotation in shifting cultivation systems. For the sake of brevity, the term land use is
employed throughout the manual
Landscape.
A non-exact area of land. A portion of land or territory which the eye can comprehend in a single
view, including all the objects it contains.
Leakage.
Changes in emissions and removals of greenhouse gases outside the accounting system that result
from activities that cause changes within the boundary of the accounting system. There are four
types of leakage: activity displacement, demand displacement, supply displacement, and
investment crowding. If leakage occurs, then the accounting system will fail to give a complete
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assessment of the true aggregate changes induced by the activity. (IPCC Special Report on Land
Use, Land Use Change and Forestry.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/srl-en.pdf )
Necromass or Dead Organic Matter
The weight of dead organisms, usually expressed as g m-2 or kg ha-1. Necromass consists mainly of
plant litter. It is usually on the soil surface or in the soil, but some may take the form of standing or
attached dead material. Much of the transient or lag in response to rapid climate change by forest
ecosystems can be estimated by the difference between tree regeneration (tree natality) and tree
mortality. Annual necromass increments result from individual tree mortality within stands and
from largerscale disturbance and dieback events (fires, insect infestations, disease infestations,
wind throw). In addition, a significant portion of the carbon stocks which comprise stored
terrestrial carbon of forest and non-forest communities is in the form of necromass.
Net emissions
In REDD+, net emissions are estimates of emissions from deforestation that consider both the
carbon stocks of the forest being cleared and the carbon stock of the replacement land use.
NPV (Net Present Value) The present value of an investment's future net cash flows minus the
initial investment.
Net returns. See profit.
Opportunity costs (REDD+) Refers to the difference in net earnings from conserving or enhancing forests versus converting them to other, typically more valuable, land uses. Opportunity cost analysis provides money-based estimates of how different stakeholders and sectors of the national economy would be affected by REDD policies and payments. They are an important part of a national planning process. Organic matter (or organic material).
Matter that has come from a once-living organism; is capable of decay, or the product of decay; or
is composed of organic compounds.
Other land (as a land-use category)
This category includes bare soil, rock, ice, and all unmanaged land areas that do not fall into any of
the other five categories. It allows the total of identified land areas to match the national area,
where data are available.
Peatland.
Peatland is the land rich in partly decomposed plant remains, with organic C of >18% and
thickness of >50 cm. Peatland is intrinsic to many wetlands around the world. The tropical peat is
about 1 to 7 m thick and at places it can be 20 m thick. Moss, grass, herbs, shrubs and trees may
contribute to the buildup of organic remains, including stems, leaves, flowers, seeds, nuts, cones,
roots, bark and wood. Peat forms in wetlands or peatlands, variously called bogs, moors, muskegs,
pocosins, mires, and peat swamp. Through time, the accumulation of peat creates the substrate,
influences ground-water conditions, and modifies surface morphology of the wetland.
Profit. Net returns, or revenues minus costs.
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD and REDD+)
REDD refers to mechanisms currently being negotiated under the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change process to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in
developing countries. REDD+ includes enhancement of forest carbon stocks, that is, ‘negative
degradation’ or ‘removals’ on land classified as forests. As used in this book, REDD+ does not
include afforestation and reforestation (A/R).
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Reforestation
Reforestation is ‘the direct human-induced conversion of non-forested land to forested land
through planting, seeding and/or the humaninduced promotion of natural seed sources, on land
that was forested, but that has been converted to non-forested land’. In the first commitment
period of the Kyoto Protocol, reforestation activities have been defined as reforestation of lands
that were not forested on 31 December 1989, but have had forest cover at some point during the
past 50 years.
Remote sensing
Practice of acquiring and using data from satellites and aerial photography to infer or measure
land cover/use. May be used in combination with ground surveys to check the accuracy of
interpretation
Removals. Removal of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors from the atmosphere by a sink. Rent.
Also known as economic rent or producer surplus. The value that producers obtain when actual
price exceeds the minimum price sellers will accept. In a REDD+ context, rent is the different
between the international price of carbon and REDD+ costs.
Sequestration
The process of increasing the carbon content of a carbon pool other than the atmosphere. It is
preferred to use the term “sink”.
Sink
Any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. (UNFCCC Article 1.8). Notation in the final stages of reporting is the negative (-) sign. Settlements
This category includes all developed land, including transportation infrastructure and human
settlements of any size, unless they are already included under other categories. This should be
consistent with the selection of national definitions.
Stratum.
One of the two or more mutually exclusive subgroups of a frame. The singular of strata.
Wetland.
Land where an excess of water is the dominant factor determining the nature of soil develop.
Zone
Biophysical and/or non biophysical factors that affect the variation of carbon stock and economic
profitability in a landscape.
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Institute (Available from http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupal-
acquia/wbi/OppCostsREDD+manual.pdf).
Angelsen, A. 2009. What will REDD cost? Presentation Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN). 18
June. www.slideshare.net/amiladesaram/angelsen-rfn-redd-costs
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