Recruitment in Wild Smolt and Recruitment in Wild Smolt and Adult Steelhead Trout: the 30-Adult Steelhead Trout: the 30-year Experience at the Keogh year Experience at the Keogh

RiverRiver..Bruce R. WardBruce R. Ward

B.C. Ministry of Environment, U.B.C.B.C. Ministry of Environment, U.B.C.

AndAnd

Don J.F. McCubbingDon J.F. McCubbingIn-Stream Fisheries Research Inc., In-Stream Fisheries Research Inc.,

Vancouver, B.C.Vancouver, B.C.

Funding Funding Habitat Conservation Trust FundHabitat Conservation Trust Fund

Study LocationStudy Location

Steelhead of the Keogh Steelhead of the Keogh RiverRiver

Trends in Adult Steelhead Trends in Adult Steelhead at the Keogh Riverat the Keogh River

Trends in Smolt Yield at Trends in Smolt Yield at KeoghKeogh

Steelhead survival and abundance trends

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Ocean Entry Year (t-3)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Ore

go

n M

arin

e S

urv

ival

(%

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Keo

gh

R M

arine S

urvival (%

)

1960

-77

(6.1

%)

1978

-90

(3.3

%)

1991

-95

(0.6

%)

Oregon CohoKeogh Steelhead

Oregon Coho & BC (Keogh) Steelhead

 

 

Conservation designation

Recruitment from the Recruitment from the OceanOcean

smolt-to-adult survival trendsmolt-to-adult survival trend

Smolt-to-Adult SurvivalSmolt-to-Adult Survival

Climate ChangeClimate Change our management, policy

and legal systems, plus many of our built environments may not resilient enough to cope with real present day or projected future changes in fish, salmon, and habitats that result from climate change and weather extremes.

http://fisheries.c-ciarn.ca/

Climate Change and Climate Change and SteelheadSteelhead

•El Nino/La Nina

•Pacific Decadal Oscillation

•Global Climate Change

Back-Calculated Smolt Length and Back-Calculated Smolt Length and SurvivalSurvival

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

14 16 18 20 22 24 26

BACK-CALCULATED SMOLT

LENGTH (cm)

% survival

Observed and Expected Survival Observed and Expected Survival Rates Rates

Wild Steelhead @ Keogh RiverWild Steelhead @ Keogh River

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.001

97

7

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

SMOLT YEAR

SM

OL

T-T

O-A

DU

LT

SU

RV

IVA

L

(%)

Observed

Expected

Tracking wild and LGB Tracking wild and LGB smolts in Queen Charlotte smolts in Queen Charlotte

StraitStraitM a inlan dB ritish C olu m b ia

V a n cou v er Islan d

Q u een C ha rlo tte Strait

Strait o fG eo rgiaMa in la nd BC

Va nc ou ve rIslan d

M a lc o lm Is l.

Ke o gh R ive rm o u th

R M

Surgically-Implanted SteelheadSurgically-Implanted SteelheadSmoltSmolt

(7 Months Post-Implantation)(7 Months Post-Implantation)

4.5 4.5 mosmos15 15 mosmos

Post 2004/2005 SurvivalsPost 2004/2005 Survivals

Species Survival to River Mouth

(%)

Survival to QCS Line (%)

FW survivors to QCS Line

(%)

Wild Steelhead smolt 77 31 40

Hatchery Steelhead smolt 71 29 42

Steelhead Smolt Recruitment @ KeoghSteelhead Smolt Recruitment @ Keogh

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

80's

Fert

90s

WRP

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Spawners

Sm

olt

Re

cru

its 80s

Fert

90s

WRP

rplcmt@ 4%

rplcmt@15%

1990’s regime affects 1990’s regime affects freshwaterfreshwater

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Spawners

Sm

olt

Re

cru

its 80s

Fert

90s

WRP

rplcmt@ 4%

rplcmt@15%

Freshwater capacity falls 6000 to less than 3000

Climate changes in freshwater as well

Spring migrationSpring migration(r(r22=0.65)=0.65)

Steelhead Parr per meter Steelhead Parr per meter in Treatment and Control in Treatment and Control

HabitatsHabitats

0

20

40

60

80

100

Controls Structures Nutrients Structures& Nutrients

num

ber

per

met

re

Mean length of 2-year-old (broken line, Mean length of 2-year-old (broken line, circles) and 3-year-old (solid line, squares) circles) and 3-year-old (solid line, squares)

steelhead smolts. Open markers indicate years steelhead smolts. Open markers indicate years affected by nutrient addition. Odd- and even-affected by nutrient addition. Odd- and even-

year variation is attributed to Pink salmon year variation is attributed to Pink salmon abundance.abundance.

Percent composition of age 1 (grey bar), age 2 (black bar), age 3 (white bar), and age 4 (hatch bar) steelhead smolts in

the Keogh River in 1996 and 1997 (no nutrient addition), and from 1998 to 2003 (nutrients added).

y = -0.0013x + 3.3284

y = -0.0032x + 2.616

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Spawners

ln(s

mol

ts/s

paw

ner)

1980s

1990s

Fert

WRP

Smolts per spawner production

Steelhead smolt recruitsSteelhead smolt recruits

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 1000 2000 3000

Number of Spawners

Nu

mb

er o

f S

mo

lts

per

Sp

awn

er

80s

Fert

90s

WRP

Predicted

Replacement at 15%

Replacement at 4%

Recruitment in FreshwaterRecruitment in Freshwater

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1000 2000 3000

Number of Spawners

Nu

mb

er

of

Sm

olt

s p

er

Sp

aw

ne

r

80sFert90sWRPPredicted

The steelhead smolts per spawner and number of spawners in the Keogh River during the 1980s (diamonds) and the 1990s (triangles), nutrient experiments in the mid-1980s (squares), and initial results during WRP to 2003 (circles). Our modified Beverton-Holt fit to these data (solid points) statistically distinguishes the 1980s and nutrient experiments from all other treatments, while the 1990s and initial watershed restoration treatments cannot be statistically distinguished.

SummarySummary >30-yrs of study of freshwater and marine influences >30-yrs of study of freshwater and marine influences

to variation in steelhead recruitment implicate mainly to variation in steelhead recruitment implicate mainly climate climate

Trends in adult and smolt abundance suggest Trends in adult and smolt abundance suggest production regimes cahnges in bothproduction regimes cahnges in both

Trends in abundance and survival at Keogh are Trends in abundance and survival at Keogh are mirrored over a broad geographic area of the mirrored over a broad geographic area of the southern distribution, and in other species (e.g., southern distribution, and in other species (e.g., coho) suggesting a common cause.coho) suggesting a common cause.

Mortality in the ocean duriung t he first few weeks Mortality in the ocean duriung t he first few weeks appears high, but requires further studyappears high, but requires further study

Productivity and capacity in freshwater is altered by Productivity and capacity in freshwater is altered by nutrient dynamics, including marine-derived nutrient dynamics, including marine-derived nutrients from Pink salmonnutrients from Pink salmon

and probably habitat destruction/restorationand probably habitat destruction/restoration A highly variable riverine environment controlled by A highly variable riverine environment controlled by

precipitation affects all steelhead life stagesprecipitation affects all steelhead life stages

Divine Intervention?Divine Intervention?or rather - playing God!or rather - playing God!

Wild (98-02) and Wild/Living Gene Bank Wild (98-02) and Wild/Living Gene Bank (2003) (2003)

Steelhead Counts - Keogh River Steelhead Counts - Keogh River

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

12/1

12/8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

1/5

1/12

1/19

1/26 2/2

2/9

2/16

2/23 3/2

3/9

3/16

3/23

3/30

Date

No

s o

f F

ish

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

12/1

12/8

12/1

5

12/2

2

12/2

9

1/5

1/12

1/19

1/26 2/

2

2/9

2/16

2/23 3/

2

3/9

3/16

3/23

3/30

Date

No

s o

f F

ish

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

•Increased adults, but….will this increase recruits?